Is the Bitcoin Bear Market Finally Over?

[00:00:00]Bitcoin is still testing the 38.2 retracement. Just can't break above it for some reason. Um but yeah, Bitcoin is still trying. So, we're going to take a look at the micro structures in today's video to see whether the bulls um yeah, whether it looks like the bulls could drive the price higher more directly or whether we have to expect a bit of a deeper pullback first. Now, there are a lot of bullish calls now on X, on YouTube. I see them everywhere. This is a little bit different to what we saw after the February low. Now, yes, there were bullish voices as well, but it feels like there are more bullish voices now, which is kind of funny. It's kind of ironic, you could say, because we are still in the same price region like pretty much half a year ago. So you could argue that we've just been in a six month range even though it doesn't really look exactly like a range, but the the market formed obviously a marginally lower low below the previous February low that was in July. Now we see a bit of a bounce and we're moving back into the same price region like you know we spent some time in in March and and April. So it remains my view that resistance for this corrective bounce which I currently interpret as a corrective wave too. So it's like the same structure three-wave move up like we had it after the February low and after the November low. So [clears throat] not you know evidence that a major low is in but you can see that the bulls are starting to get a little bit you know stronger. They're coming out of their caves. Um, I'd be the last person, you know, who who'd have a problem with a bull market, you know, so I'd love it. And if we could rally to alter miles from here, I'd love it. I just can't see it as the most probable scenario just yet. It would require more evidence. In yesterday's update, I showed you what we need to see to confirm this more bullish scenario. Um but it's very often the case that in in these corrective rallies even in bare markets of course the market can go higher. Very often though in bare markets then the market gets rejected from the 200 day moving average and that is this one here. It's around 72k at the moment a level I highlighted a few days ago as possible target. Um and so therefore I mean I find it quite interesting. It's just an interesting observation that there are so many bullish voices now they weren't as loud back in March even though the price was the same February March which is a bit strange. So in my opinion nothing has really changed. Bitcoin, yeah, spent a bit more time sideways, formed the marginally lower low, but this correction still looks fairly incomplete. And I think at least one more low, maybe two more lows towards the hold on towards the 39K level, possibly in Q4 seems very, very likely.

[00:03:08]And that view really hasn't changed.

[00:03:10]This bare market looks so similar. It's so similar to the 2022 bare market. We could currently be in the bounce here after the June lows 2022 happened back then as well into the August highs and then we got another move down. All right, so that could happen this time as well. I'll of course keep you updated about the relevant thesis here and the bare market outlook.

[00:03:41]It really hasn't changed. Resistance is unchanged.

[00:03:45]If we break above resistance, look, then we can talk about something different.

[00:03:49]There will then be a bullish setup. If it plays out, happy days. I think we're all happy because even if the price breaks out to the upside, it will most likely form a sequence of five waves first and three waves down.

[00:04:06]And then this would be a support zone, which could act as a springboard for a rally to new highs. So, we should also be able to see that if it actually happens, I'd say. Now, let's take a look at the shorter time frame. Before we go to the smaller time frame, just a quick reminder, you can also follow us on X for a lot of additional updates. There are many exclusive videos. You often get informed a little bit sooner. Already posted a Bitcoin update here earlier today. So, in case the videos are not frequently enough for you here on YouTube, feel free to follow us there as well. That's the more crypto online channel and it's the channel with the golden check mark. So, let's take a look at the shorter time frame for Bitcoin. I have to [clears throat] say Bitcoin has not moved much since the last video update. However, the uptrend remains intact for now. What I find quite um positive here is that Bitcoin is currently working on uh still um this ABC structure to the upside. We're holding support levels. Okay, so the overall uptrend remains intact. Please note this remains in my opinion a corrective uptrend. If Bitcoin is really in a proper upside impulse, well, normally Bitcoin is moving much more aggressively. Yeah, here um what we have is not a very nice looking structure from the 20th of July low. you have not very impulsive looking subwave structures, but bear in mind we're here on the 30 minute chart. The overall idea is that Bitcoin is in a local uptrend.

[00:05:46]And so this entire uptrend started down here on the 1st of July. I mean technically it's not an uptrend. It's it's a counter trend move because the overall larger degree trend is down as I mentioned. Um so it's you know it would be expected that here and there support levels break on the micro level because a counter trend move to the upside even though it goes up it's usually not a very aggressive move um price action kind of confirms that and as you can see if I activate the 38.2 into retracement here. This is exactly where the price got rejected. That's the resistance level I showed you on the larger time frame. Um that's the larger time frame one. And to together with that one, we had here the smaller degree $123.6 extension at $66,846.

[00:06:34]That is one of the Fibonacci levels in our resistance box that we talked about here yesterday. The price got rejected there, not strongly. We're still not below a previous swing low. We're still holding Fibonacci support and it still does look like a three-wave decline. So, honestly, to keep the trend higher, Bitcoin should or let's say to keep the counter trend move higher alive, Bitcoin should ideally start to move to the upside from here. But yeah, I said it does look like an ABC structure to the downside. So without a break of support with only three-wave movements to the downside, it's very much possible that Bitcoin can still be in the local upside impulse. What I don't really like, you know, is this structure here. It doesn't look very impulsive, but again, there can be some distortions on the 30 minute time frame. So I'm giving the bulls here in the short term at least the benefit of the doubt as long as the micro support level is holding. Any decisive break below 65,339 will shift the focus to the last swing low at 63,750.

[00:07:46]That's the last swing low of the internal wave 2 and that would be um a level that could be tested should upper support break and then obviously we'll focus on the next swing lows. But for now, the the focus is on higher prices and again it it is seen as a bearish counter trend move if that makes sense.

[00:08:06]So surely short-term bullish but part of a larger degree counter trend move because we're still in an overall bare market. So the next objective for the bulls will be to you know generate an impulsive response to this micro support um and then ideally reach the next upside fib level at 69K. I'm not sure if we if we're going to do that today or tomorrow, but that would be the next objective here for the bulls. And then maybe we'll get a few more highs here, maybe even into early August, and then I'm going to watch closely for signals that the larger wave 2 rally is over.

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[00:10:16]Thanks so much. Have a great day.