Geopolitical conflicts create asymmetric economic outcomes where certain countries, industries, and financial institutions profit while others bear the costs. The United States benefits from being a net energy exporter (unlike Europe), higher defense spending through companies like Lockheed Martin and RTX, and Wall Street gains from market volatility. Russia benefits from higher oil prices and inconsistent sanctions, while Brazil emerges as Asia's emergency oil supplier. The global economy overall suffers, with the IMF downgrading growth forecasts, demonstrating that while some entities profit from conflict, the broader global economy pays the price.
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on the more they gain. As households across the world shoulder the cost of the conflict, others are cashing in through surging profits, strategic leverage, and rising global influence.
Some are winning from energy volatility.
Others from record defense spending, and I'm not just talking about oil giants or arms makers. Even certain countries have benefited, but perhaps none more than the United States itself. Allow me to explain. US President Donald Trump may not have struck Iran to boost the US economy while pressuring allies, but that has in many ways been the outcome. Yes, Americans are paying more at the pump, but the US economy so far is holding up far better than many others. Across Europe and other energy dependent economies, inflation risks are rising.
Interest rate pressures are growing.
Cityroup economists have cut Eurozone growth forecast by 04 points compared to just 0.1 for the United States. Why? Because Europe remains heavily dependent on imported energy while the US is net energy exporter.
Yes, America has taken a hit, but many of its allies are bleeding more. And that's not all. The United States is also benefiting through higher defense profits. American weapons talks have surged. Loheed Martin, RTX, Northro Brewman are gaining as global demand for missiles, ammunition and air defense rises.
War is costly, but for key parts of the US economy, it has also been good business.
But there's another country benefiting, Russia. Moscow has enjoyed a rare windfall from higher oil prices and easing or inconsistent sanctions pressure. As crude prices spiked, Russia's oil revenues climbed to their highest levels this year. That has helped replenish the Kremlin's budget, sustain its war in Ukraine, and weaken the impact of Western sanctions. Russian oil tax revenues hit a six-month high in April. And there's more. The US Iran war has also diverted American military and diplomatic focus away from Ukraine.
Air defense systems, attention and resources have now been diverted to West Asia. For Russia, that distraction helps. That's not all. Moscow is also expanding its reach through fertilizers, gaining new clients in Asia and Africa.
So, Russia could well be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the war. And as the Gulf remains volatile, Brazil has emerged as Asia's emergency oil supplier. With buyers in Asia scrambling for crude, a big opening for Brazil has been created.
Just as China and India face tighter West Asia supplies, Brazilian exports were hitting records. China, once heavily dependent on Gulf oil, ramped up buying from Brazil fast. India did the same. Brazil's key grades like the Guios are close enough in quality to some Gulf barrels, making them ideal for refiners trying to project trying to protect diesel and jet fuel output. But it's not just countries cashing in. Wall Street is too. You see, since the start of Trump's second term, global markets have been on a roller coaster. Trump's erratic style, ultimatums one day and a reversal of that the next has fueled extreme volatility. Traders even have a term for it. They call it taco trade, which means Trump always chickens out. Taco for investors. Volatility can be nerve-wracking, but for major banks, it has been a gold mine. More swings mean more trading, means more fee, means bigger profits.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, all have posted major first quarter gains.
And then there's the business of betting on chaos. Crypto-based prediction platforms like Poly Market have turned global uncertainty into a massive revenue engine. Users are placing bets on world events in real time. Poly market has emerged as a standout winner in this war. As traffic surge, the platform revised its fee and cashed in even more. And unsurprisingly, war is also booming for the defense industry.
From Ukraine to Iran to Gaza to Sudan, global conflict has driven a new arms spending cycle. Countries are buying more drones, more missiles, more air defense, and more advanced weapons.
Europe, in particular, is rearming fast, and arms makers are reaping the benefits. Aerospace and defense talks have outpaced global markets. What's more, artificial intelligence boom continues.
Even as the war shook the energy markets, the AI revolution has remained remarkably resilient. The United Nations Trade and Development Agency previously projected the AI industry could go grow from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033.
And so far, the Iran war has done little to slow that momentum. One major signal, semiconductor demand. East Asian chip exports, particularly from Taiwan, have remained strong. Taiwan, home to chip giant TSMC, has continued to see record export strength. But while some countries, companies, and industries profit, it's the global economy as a whole that is paying the price. The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3 to 3.1%, citing the impact of the war.
There's a famous book called Everybody Loves a Good Drought. But it seems there are plenty of beneficiaries for a war as well.
But even as Iran and the United States clash, for some, the longer this war drags on, the more they gain. As households across the world shoulder the cost of the conflict, others are cashing in through surging profits, strategic leverage, and rising global influence.
Some are winning from energy volatility, others from record defense spending. And I'm not just talking about oil giants or arms makers. Even certain countries have benefited.
But perhaps none more than the United States itself. Allow me to explain. US President Donald Trump may not have struck Iran to boost the US economy while pressuring allies, but that has in many ways been the outcome. Yes, Americans are paying more at the pump, but the US economy so far is holding up far better than many others. Across Europe and other energy dependent economies, inflation risks are rising.
Interest rate pressures are growing.
Cityroup economists have cut Euro zone growth forecast by4 points compared to just.1 for the United States. Why? Because Europe remains heavily dependent on imported energy while the US is net energy exporter.
Yes, America has taken a hit, but many of its allies are bleeding more. And that's not all. The United States is also benefiting through higher defense profits. American weapons stocks have surged. Loheed Martin, RTX, North Broomman are gaining as global demand for missiles, ammunition, and air defense rises.
War is costly, but for key parts of the US economy, it has also been good business.
But there's another country benefiting, Russia. Moscow has enjoyed a rare windfall from higher oil prices and easing or inconsistent sanctions pressure. As crude prices spiked, Russia's oil revenues climbed to their highest levels this year. That has helped replenish the Kremlin's budget, sustain its war in Ukraine, and weaken the impact of Western sanctions.
Russian oil tax revenues hit a six-month high in April. And there's more. The US Iran war has also diverted American military and diplomatic focus away from Ukraine.
Air defense systems attention and resources have now been diverted to West Asia. For Russia, that distraction helps. That's not all. Moscow is also expanding its reach through fertilizers, gaining new clients in Asia and Africa.
So Russia could well be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the war. And as the Gulf remains volatile, Brazil has emerged as Asia's emergency oil supplier. With buyers in Asia scrambling for crude, a big opening for Brazil has been created.
Just as China and India face tighter West Asia supplies, Brazilian exports were hitting records. China once heavily dependent on Gulf oil, ramped up buying from Brazil fast. India did the same.
Brazil's key grades like the Luzio are close enough in quality to some Gulf barrels, making them ideal for refiners trying to project trying to protect diesel and jet fuel output. But it's not just countries cashing in. Wall Street is too. You see, since the start of Trump's second term, global markets have been on a roller coaster. Trump's erratic style, ultimatums one day and a reversal of that the next has fueled extreme volatility. Traders even have a term for it. They call it taco trade, which means Trump always chickens out.
Taco.
For investors, volatility can be nerve-wracking.
But for major banks, it has been a gold mine. More swings mean more trading, means more fee, means bigger profits.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, all have posted major first quarter gains.
And then there's the business of betting on chaos. Cryptobased prediction platforms like Poly Market have turned global uncertainty into a massive revenue engine. Users are placing bets on world events in real time. Poly Market has emerged as a standout winner in this war. As traffic surge, the platform revised its fee and cashed in even more. And unsurprisingly, war is also booming for the defense industry.
From Ukraine to Iran to Gaza to Sudan, global conflict has driven a new arms spending cycle. Countries are buying more drones, more missiles, more air defense, and more advanced weapons.
Europe, in particular, is rearming fast, and arms makers are reaping the benefits. Aerospace and defense talks have outpaced global markets. What's more, artificial intelligence boom continues.
Even as the war shook the energy markets, the AI revolution has remained remarkably resilient. The United Nations Trade and Development Agency previously projected the AI industry could go grow from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033.
And so far, the Iran war has done little to slow that momentum.
One major signal, semiconductor demand.
East Asian chip exports, particularly from Taiwan, have remained strong.
Taiwan, home to chip giant TSMC, has continued to see record export strength.
But while some countries, companies, and industries profit, it's the global economy as a whole that is paying the price. The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3 to 3.1%, citing the impact of the war.
There's a famous book called Everybody Loves a Good Drought. But it seems there are plenty of beneficiaries for a war as well.
But even as Iran and the United States clash, for some, the longer this war drags on, the more they gain. As households across the world shoulder the cost of the conflict, others are cashing in through surging profits, strategic leverage, and rising global influence.
Some are winning from energy volatility, others from record defense spending. And I'm not just talking about oil giants or arms makers. Even certain countries have benefited, but perhaps none more than the United States itself. Allow me to explain. US President Donald Trump may not have struck Iran to boost the US economy while pressuring allies, but that has in many ways been the outcome. Yes, Americans are paying more at the pump, but the US economy so far is holding up far better than many others across Europe and other energy dependent economies. Inflation risks are rising.
Interest rate pressures are growing.
Cityroup economists have cut Euro zone growth forecast by4 points compared to just 0.1 for the United States. Why? Because Europe remains heavily dependent on imported energy.
While the US is net energy exporter, yes, America has taken a hit, but many of its allies are bleeding more. And that's not all. The United States is also benefiting through higher defense profits. American weapons stocks have surged. Loheed Martin, RTX, Northrup, Brumman are gaining as global demand for missiles, ammunition, and air defense rises.
War is costly, but for key parts of the US economy, it has also been good business.
But there's another country benefiting, Russia. Moscow has enjoyed a rare windfall from higher oil prices and easing or inconsistent sanctions pressure. As crude prices spiked, Russia's oil revenues climbed to their highest levels this year. That has helped replenish the Kremlin's budget, sustain its war in Ukraine, and weaken the impact of Western sanctions.
Russian oil tax revenues hit a six-month high in April. And there's more. The US Iran war has also diverted. American military and diplomatic focus away from Ukraine.
Air defense systems, attention and resources have now been diverted to West Asia. For Russia, that distraction helps. That's not all. Moscow is also expanding its reach through fertilizers, gaining new clients in Asia and Africa.
So, Russia could well be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the war. And as the Gulf remains volatile, Brazil has emerged as Asia's emergency oil supplier. With buyers in Asia scrambling for crude, a big opening for Brazil has been created.
Just as China and India face tighter West Asia supplies, Brazilian exports were hitting records. China, once heavily dependent on Gulf oil, ramped up buying from Brazil fast. India did the same. Brazil's key grades like the Luzio are close enough in quality to some Gulf barrels, making them ideal for refiners trying to project trying to protect diesel and jet fuel output. But it's not just countries cashing in. Wall Street is too. You see, since the start of Trump's second term, global markets have been on a roller coaster. Trump's erratic style, ultimatums one day and a reversal of that the next has fueled extreme volatility. Traders even have a term for it. They call it taco trade, which means Trump always chickens out.
Taco. For investors, volatility can be nerve-wracking.
But for major banks, it has been a gold mine. More swings mean more trading, means more fee, means bigger profits.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, all have posted major first quarter gains.
And then there's the business of betting on chaos. Crypto-based prediction platforms like Poly Market have turned global uncertainty into a massive revenue engine. Users are placing bets on world events in real time. Poly Market has emerged as a standout winner in this war. As traffic surged, the platform revised its fee and cashed in even more. And unsurprisingly, war is also booming for the defense industry.
From Ukraine to Iran to Gaza to Sudan, global conflict has driven a new arms spending cycle. Countries are buying more drones, more missiles, more air defense, and more advanced weapons.
Europe, in particular, is rearming fast, and arms makers are reaping the benefits. Aerospace and defense talks have outpaced global markets. What's more, artificial intelligence boom continues.
Even as the war shook the energy markets, the AI revolution has remained remarkably resilient. The United Nations Trade and Development Agency previously projected the AI industry could go grow from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033.
And so far, the Iran war has done little to slow that momentum. One major signal, semiconductor demand. East Asian chip exports, particularly from Taiwan, have remained strong. Taiwan, home to chip giant TSMC, has continued to see record export strength. But while some countries, companies, and industries profit, it's the global economy as a whole that is paying the price. The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3 to 3.1%, citing the impact of the war.
There's a famous book called Everybody Loves a Good Drought. But it seems there are plenty of beneficiaries for a war as well.
But even as Iran and the United States clash, for some, the longer this war drags on, the more they gain. As households across the world shoulder the cost of the conflict, others are cashing in through surging profits, strategic leverage, and rising global influence.
Some are winning from energy volatility, others from record defense spending. And I'm not just talking about oil giants or arms makers. Even certain countries have benefited, but perhaps none more than the United States itself. Allow me to explain. US President Donald Trump may not have struck Iran to boost the US economy while pressuring allies, but that has in many ways been the outcome. Yes, Americans are paying more at the pump, but the US economy so far is holding up far better than many others across Europe and other energy dependent economies. Inflation risks are rising.
Interest rate pressures are growing.
Cityroup economists have cut Eurozone growth forecast by4 points compared to just 0.1 for the United States. Why? Because Europe remains heavily dependent on imported energy.
While the US is net energy exporter, yes, America has taken a hit, but many of its allies are bleeding more. And that's not all. The United States is also benefiting through higher defense profits. American weapons stocks have surged. Loheed Martin, RTX, Northrup, Brumman are gaining as global demand for missiles, ammunition, and air defense rises.
War is costly, but for key parts of the US economy, it has also been good business.
But there's another country benefiting, Russia. Moscow has enjoyed a rare windfall from higher oil prices and easing or inconsistent sanctions pressure. As crude prices spiked, Russia's oil revenues climbed to their highest levels this year. That has helped replenish the Kremlin's budget, sustain its war in Ukraine, and weaken the impact of Western sanctions.
Russian oil tax revenues hit a six-month high in April. And there's more. The US Iran war has also diverted. American military and diplomatic focus away from Ukraine.
Air defense systems attention and resources have now been diverted to West Asia. For Russia, that distraction helps. That's not all. Moscow is also expanding its reach through fertilizers, gaining new clients in Asia and Africa.
So Russia could well be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the war. And as the Gulf remains volatile, Brazil has emerged as Asia's emergency oil supplier. With buyers in Asia scrambling for crude, a big opening for Brazil has been created.
Just as China and India face tighter West Asia supplies, Brazilian exports were hitting records. China, once heavily dependent on Gulf oil, ramped up buying from Brazil fast. India did the same. Brazil's key grades like the Guios are close enough in quality to some Gulf barrels, making them ideal for refiners trying to project trying to protect diesel and jet fuel output. But it's not just countries cashing in. Wall Street is too. You see, since the start of Trump's second term, global markets have been on a roller coaster. Trump's erratic style, ultimatums one day and a reversal of that the next has fueled extreme volatility. Traders even have a term for it. They call it taco trade, which means Trump always chickens out.
Taco.
For investors, volatility can be nerve-wracking.
But for major banks, it has been a gold mine. More swings mean more trading, means more fee, means bigger profits.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, all have posted major first quarter gains.
And then there's the business of betting on chaos. Crypto-based prediction platforms like Poly Market have turned global uncertainty into a massive revenue engine. Users are placing bets on world events in real time. Poly Market has emerged as a standout winner in this war. As traffic surged, the platform revised its fee and cashed in even more. And unsurprisingly, war is also booming for the defense industry.
From Ukraine to Iran to Gaza to Sudan, global conflict has driven a new arms spending cycle. Countries are buying more drones, more missiles, more air defense, and more advanced weapons.
Europe, in particular, is rearming fast, and arms makers are reaping the benefits. Aerospace and defense talks have outpaced global markets. What's more, artificial intelligence boom continues.
Even as the war shook the energy markets, the AI revolution has remained remarkably resilient. The United Nations Trade and Development Agency previously projected the AI industry could go grow from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033.
And so far, the Iran war has done little to slow that momentum. One major signal, semiconductor demand. East Asian chip exports, particularly from Taiwan, have remained strong. Taiwan, home to chip giant TSMC, has continued to see record export strength. But while some countries, companies, and industries profit, it's the global economy as a whole that is paying the price. The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3 to 3.1%, citing the impact of the war.
There's a famous book called Everybody Loves a Good Drought. But it seems there are plenty of beneficiaries for a war as well.
But even as Iran and the United States clash, for some, the longer this war drags on, the more they gain. As households across the world shoulder the cost of the conflict, others are cashing in through surging profits, strategic leverage, and rising global influence.
Some are winning from energy volatility, others from record defense spending. And I'm not just talking about oil giants or arms makers. Even certain countries have benefited, but perhaps none more than the United States itself. Allow me to explain. US President Donald Trump may not have struck Iran to boost the US economy while pressuring allies, but that has in many ways been the outcome. Yes, Americans are paying more at the pump, but the US economy so far is holding up far better than many others. Across Europe and other energy dependent economies, inflation risks are rising.
Interest rate pressures are growing.
Cityroup economists have cut Eurozone growth forecast by4 points compared to just.1 for the United States. Why? Because Europe remains heavily dependent on imported energy while the US is net energy exporter.
Yes, America has taken a hit, but many of its allies are bleeding more. And that's not all. The United States is also benefiting through higher defense profits. American weapons stocks have surged. Loheed Martin, RTX, North Broomman are gaining as global demand for missiles, ammunition, and air defense rises.
War is costly. But for key parts of the US economy, it has also been good business. But there's another country benefiting, Russia. Moscow has enjoyed a rare windfall from higher oil prices and easing or inconsistent sanctions pressure. As crude prices spiked, Russia's oil revenues climbed to their highest levels this year. That has helped replenish the Kremlin's budget, sustain its war in Ukraine, and weaken the impact of Western sanctions. Russian oil tax revenues hit a six-month high in April. And there's more. The US Iran war has also diverted American military and diplomatic focus away from Ukraine.
Air defense systems attention and resources have now been diverted to West Asia. For Russia, that distraction helps. That's not all. Moscow is also expanding its reach through fertilizers, gaining new clients in Asia and Africa.
So Russia could well be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the war. And as the Gulf remains volatile, Brazil has emerged as Asia's emergency oil supplier. With buyers in Asia scrambling for crude, a big opening for Brazil has been created.
Just as China and India face tighter West Asia supplies, Brazilian exports were hitting records. China, once heavily dependent on Gulf oil, ramped up buying from Brazil fast. India did the same. Brazil's key grades like the Luzio are close enough in quality to some Gulf barrels, making them ideal for refiners trying to project trying to protect diesel and jet fuel output. But it's not just countries cashing in. Wall Street is too. You see, since the start of Trump's second term, global markets have been on a roller coaster. Trump's erratic style, ultimatums one day and a reversal of that the next has fueled extreme volatility. Traders even have a term for it. They call it taco trade, which means Trump always chickens out.
Taco.
For investors, volatility can be nerve-wracking.
But for major banks, it has been a gold mine. More swings mean more trading, means more fee, means bigger profits.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, all have posted major first quarter gains.
And then there's the business of betting on chaos. Cryptob-based prediction platforms like Poly Market have turned global uncertainty into a massive revenue engine. Users are placing bets on world events in real time. Poly Market has emerged as a standout winner in this war. As traffic surged, the platform revised its fee and cashed in even more. And unsurprisingly, war is also booming for the defense industry.
From Ukraine to Iran to Gaza to Sudan, global conflict has driven a new arms spending cycle. Countries are buying more drones, more missiles, more air defense, and more advanced weapons.
Europe, in particular, is rearming fast, and arms makers are reaping the benefits. Aerospace and defense talks have outpaced global markets. What's more, artificial intelligence boom continues.
Even as the war shook the energy markets, the AI revolution has remained remarkably resilient. The United Nations Trade and Development Agency previously projected the AI industry could go grow from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033.
And so far, the Iran war has done little to slow that momentum. One major signal, semiconductor demand. East station chip exports, particularly from Taiwan, have remained strong. Taiwan, home to chip giant TSMC, has continued to see record export strength. But while some countries, companies, and industries profit, it's the global economy as a whole that is paying the price. The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3 to 3.1% citing the impact of the war.
There is a famous book called Everybody Loves a Good Drought. But it seems there are plenty of beneficiaries for a war as well.
But even as Iran and the United States clash, for some, the longer this war drags on, the more they gain. As households across the world shoulder the cost of the conflict, others are cashing in through surging profits, strategic leverage, and rising global influence.
Some are winning from energy volatility.
Others from record defense spending, and I'm not just talking about oil giants or arms makers. Even certain countries have benefited, but perhaps none more than the United States itself. Allow me to explain. US President Donald Trump may not have struck Iran to boost the US economy while pressuring allies, but that has in many ways been the outcome. Yes, Americans are paying more at the pump, but the US economy so far is holding up far better than many others. Across Europe and other energy dependent economies, inflation risks are rising.
Interest rate pressures are growing.
Cityroup economists have cut Euro zone growth forecast by point4 points.
compared to just 0.1 for the United States. Why? Because Europe remains heavily dependent on imported energy while the US is net energy exporter.
Yes, America has taken a hit, but many of its allies are bleeding more. And that's not all. The United States is also benefiting through higher defense profits. American weapons stocks have surged. Loheed Martin, RTX, Northro Broomman are gaining as global demand for missiles, ammunition and air defense rises.
War is costly, but for key parts of the US economy, it has also been good business.
But there's another country benefiting, Russia. Moscow has enjoyed a rare windfall from higher oil prices and easing or inconsistent sanctions pressure. As crude prices spiked, Russia's oil revenues climbed to their highest levels this year. That has helped replenish the Kremlin's budget, sustain its war in Ukraine, and weaken the impact of Western sanctions. Russian oil tax revenues hit a six-month high in April. And there's more. The US Iran war has also diverted American military and diplomatic focus away from Ukraine.
Air defense systems, attention and resources have now been diverted to West Asia. For Russia, that distraction helps. That's not all. Moscow is also expanding its reach through fertilizers, gaining new clients in Asia and Africa.
So, Russia could well be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the war. And as the Gulf remains volatile, Brazil has emerged as Asia's emergency oil supplier. With buyers in Asia scrambling for crude, a big opening for Brazil has been created.
Just as China and India face tighter West Asia supplies, Brazilian exports were hitting records. China, once heavily dependent on Gulf oil, ramped up buying from Brazil fast. India did the same. Brazil's key grades like the Luzio are close enough in quality to some Gulf barrels, making them ideal for refiners trying to project trying to protect diesel and jet fuel output. But it's not just countries cashing in. Wall Street is too. You see, since the start of Trump's second term, global markets have been on a roller coaster. Trump's erratic style, ultimatums one day and a reversal of that the next has fueled extreme volatility. Traders even have a term for it. They call it taco trade, which means Trump always chickens out. Taco for investors. Volatility can be nerve-wracking, but for major banks, it has been a gold mine. More swings mean more trading, means more fee, means bigger profits.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, all have posted major first quarter gains.
And then there's the business of betting on chaos. Cryptobas-based prediction platforms like Poly Market have turned global uncertainty into a massive revenue engine. Users are placing bets on world events in real time. Poly market has emerged as a standout winner in this war. As traffic surge, the platform revised its fee and cashed in even more. And unsurprisingly, war is also booming for the defense industry.
From Ukraine to Iran to Gaza to Sudan, global conflict has driven a new arms spending cycle. Countries are buying more drones, more missiles, more air defense and more advanced weapons.
Europe in particular is rearming fast and arms makers are reaping the benefits. Aerospace and defense talks have outpaced global markets. What's more, artificial intelligence boom continues.
Even as the war shook the energy markets, the AI revolution has remained remarkably resilient. The United Nations Trade and Development Agency previously projected the AI industry could go grow from $189 billion in 2023 to $4.8 trillion by 2033.
And so far, the Iran war has done little to slow that momentum. One major signal, semiconductor demand. East Asian chip exports, particularly from Taiwan, have remained strong. Taiwan, home to chip giant TSMC, has continued to see record export strength. But while some countries, companies, and industries profit, it's the global economy as a whole that is paying the price. The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its global growth forecast for 2026 from 3.3 to 3.1%, citing the impact of the war.
There's a famous book called Everybody Loves a Good Drought. But it seems there are plenty of beneficiaries for a war as well.
But even as Iran and the United States clash, for some, the longer this war drags on, the more they gain. As households across the world shoulder the cost of the conflict, others are cashing in through surging profits, strategic leverage, and rising global influence.
Some are winning from energy volatility, others from record defense spending. And I'm not just talking about oil giants or arms makers. Even certain countries have benefited, but perhaps none more than the United States itself. Allow me to explain. US President Donald Trump may not have struck Iran to boost the US economy while pressuring allies, but that has in many ways been the outcome. Yes, Americans are paying more at the pump, but the US economy so far is holding up far better than many others across Europe and other energy dependent economies. Inflation risks are rising.
Interest rate pressures are growing.
Cityroup economists have cut Euro zone growth forecast by 04 points compared to just 0.1 for the United States. Why? Because Europe remains heavily dependent on imported energy.
While the US is net energy exporter, yes, America has taken a hit, but many of its allies are bleeding more. And that's not all. The United States is also benefiting through higher defense profits. American weapons stocks have surged. Loheed Martin, RTX, Northrup, Broomman are gaining as global demand for missiles, ammunition, and air defense rises.
War is costly, but for key parts of the US economy, it has also been good business.
But there's another country benefiting, Russia. Moscow has enjoyed a rare windfall from higher oil prices and easing or inconsistent sanctions pressure. As crude prices spiked, Russia's oil revenues climbed to their highest levels this year. That has helped replenish the Kremlin's budget, sustain its war in Ukraine, and weaken the impact of Western sanctions.
Russian oil tax revenues hit a six-month high in April. And there's more. The US Iran war has also diverted. American military and diplomatic focus away from Ukraine.
Air defense systems, attention, and resources have now been diverted to West Asia. For Russia, that distraction helps. That's not all. Moscow is also expanding its reach through fertilizers, gaining new clients in Asia and Africa.
So, Russia could well be one of the biggest beneficiaries of the war. And as the Gulf remains volatile, Brazil has emerged as Asia's emergency oil supplier. With buyers in Asia scrambling for crude, a big opening for Brazil has been created.
Just as China and India face tighter West Asia supplies, Brazilian exports were hitting records. China, once heavily dependent on Gulf oil, ramped up buying from Brazil fast. India did the same. Brazil's key grades like the Guios are close enough in quality to some Gulf barrels, making them ideal for refiners trying to project trying to protect diesel and jet fuel output. But it's not just countries cashing in. Wall Street is too. You see, since the start of Trump's second term, global markets have been on a roller coaster. Trump's erratic style, ultimatums one day and a reversal of that the next has fueled extreme volatility. Traders even have a term for it. They call it taco trade, which means Trump always chickens out.
Taco.
For investors, volatility can be nerve-wracking.
But for major banks, it has been a gold mine. More swings mean more trading, means more fee, means bigger profits.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, all have posted major first quarter gains.
And then there's the business of betting on chaos. Crypto-based prediction platforms like Poly Market have turned global uncertainty into a massive revenue engine. Users are placing bets on world events in real time. Poly Market has emerged as a standout winner in this war. As traffic surged, the platform revised its fee and cashed in even more. And unsurprisingly, war is also booming for the defense industry.
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