The Hantavirus outbreak on the MV Hondius cruise ship demonstrates that diseases with long incubation periods can cause prolonged outbreaks with delayed case detection, but low transmissibility and limited contagious periods (only symptomatic individuals are contagious) can prevent large-scale epidemics despite high fatality rates (30-50%); this outbreak serves as a reminder that populations remain at risk of future pandemics and should maintain preparedness.
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Hantavirus Outbreak Could Last Months, Says French Epidemiologist | Health Emergency | N18G追加:
It can drag on for several months because the incubation period is long and it could be that we have the feeling at some point that it's over and then there's one case which pops up one month later and then you have again to do all these isolation of cases, quarantine of contacts. What is good, if I may say so with this virus, is that it's not very transmissible. It's not highly contagious. It's only the people who are symptomatic who are contagious. So there is a limited time period during which transmission can take place, but ultimately my guess is a few dozens of cases worldwide, high lethality rate, so unfortunately half of the people or 1/3 of the people is going to die, but I would not expect a very large epidemic. Even if I'm not too worried, I think it's useful to remind all of us that we are still at risk of major pandemics and we should get prepared.
I'm quite convinced that we are going to experience a new pandemic and we never know whether it could be as bad as COVID-19.
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