Jack Mallers :“The Real Bull Run Hasn’t Even Started Yet” [2026 Bitcoin & Crypto Prediction]

Added: 2026-05-04

[00:00:00]I'm very happy that Bitcoin is up. Do I think we're back in a bull market and we're going to all-time highs? I don't [music] know. It's totally possible. But it's also totally possible that the markets start to price in what the physical reality of some of these supply chain things. But this was my best guess when people are like, why is Bitcoin going up? I don't understand. My best guess is, I mean, fiat and money printing has gotten so bad that right now you have a president who's just announcing [music] headlines purely based on the stock market and trying to manipulate asset prices. No matter how you slice [music] the next few years, um, Bitcoin's got to go up along with other assets. And I continue to believe Bitcoin is going to go up more than other assets because of the properties that it has [music] as a monetary uh unit because it is scarcer because it is easier to store because it's easier to move because it's more private. For all of those reasons, Jack Malers just [music] said something that every person with money in the system needs to hear. No matter how you slice the next few years, [music] Bitcoin has to go up. And not just up, up more than [music] everything else.

[00:01:19]More than stocks, more than gold, more than real estate. That is not a hope.

[00:01:25]That is his diagnosis of where [music] this entire financial system is heading.

[00:01:29]And here is why that should worry you.

[00:01:31]He is [music] not saying this because the bull market is back. He is saying this because the system underneath everything else is cracking.

[00:01:38]>> [music] >> The straight of Hormuz is effectively closed. Global supply chains are seizing up. A former US Treasury Secretary just went on television calling for an emergency break the [music] glass plan in case the bond market loses control.

[00:01:52]And through all of that, the S&P 500 is printing [music] all-time highs. Now, that disconnect is not a good sign. It's the warning. But before we continue, quick [music] reminder. Only a small percentage of you watching are actually subscribed. If the content is adding value, hit [music] that subscribe button. It's completely free and helps the channel reach more people who need to hear this. Iran, again, to remind you guys, their strategy, in my opinion, remains abundantly clear. They are not going to try and beat the US via military. What has been their military strategy? using missiles and drones to just hang around and stay alive [music] while they try and take down the US monetarily. The US is in far [music] too much debt. It is way too levered as a financial system that just the little bit of volatility to its treasury market or a little bit of volatility to its stock market will blow the whole house of cards down. And what is this tweet implying? This tweet is implying your paper games, your paper [music] financial markets are not mapping to the real world. You are trying to paper over things that you [music] can't print and your paper house of cards which are treasuries will come tumbling down.

[00:03:14]Okay, that is so again [music] what's Iran's strategy? Where is the US weak as financial market participants? As Bitcoiners who want to build a better system and are [music] highly dubious of the fiat charades that we were born into, what should we be watching? We we should be watching the treasuries market. We should be watching the stock market. We should be watching volatility index measures [music] and we should be watching global supply chains and seeing if these things continue to seize up or if they unlock. Um, so anyways, all that to say, so mind you guys, the first like four slides of my presentation today, I'm like, "Oh, wow. [music] Iran, like that ceasefire again was bullshit."

[00:03:55]Trump has been a master at manipulating financial markets into getting on risk [music] on, risk off, risk on, risk off.

[00:04:02]Every time he announces something that's favorable to markets, we realize it's not true. The [music] straight is closed. Iran is saying that he's a paper puppeteer.

[00:04:10]And then a few hours before I [music] stream to you guys, this headline hits the terminal. US Iran talks are planned for Wednesday in Pakistan. [music] I guess they're back on. This is where I'm like, these guys, it's a DDOS attack on [music] on my brain. It's pointless.

[00:04:28]All roads, all roads leaded to basement.

[00:04:30]All roads lead to Bitcoin. [music] Unless I start seeing tankers go through the straight. Unless I start seeing global supply chains get lubricated again and [music] China is not importing as much and their exports are back to normal, then I'm not I'm done. I'm done with the nonsense. I'm not going to make this a 4-hour show going through each headline up and down, up and down, up and down. From now on, we're going to make a bulleted list, you and I, me and and this lovely little corner of the internet. Okay? It's going to be our tankers getting through this straight.

[00:05:06]Our global supply chain still seized up.

[00:05:10]Are uh international partners of the United States still selling dollar-based assets on net and seemingly acquiring things like gold? Yes or no? Oh, and is the conflict still ongoing? [music] I mean, I remember when this thing I mean, do you guys remember it's like you can make the argument like, okay, I get it. They're politicians. What else you expect them to do? Implied in this is our job. You'd have to be an idiot to expect them to tell you the truth at this point. But it is just like it is like you. How dumb do you guys think I am? Remember when they told us this conflict was going to end [music] in a week? Okay, one more week. Okay, one more week. It's been months. On [music] April 28th, it will have been 2 months.

[00:05:54]I'm done. I'm done entertaining the humiliation ritual.

[00:05:59]This show will no longer spend more than we should give ourselves a time like no more than [music] 15 minutes of checking all of our bullets. Is the conflict still ongoing? Is the strait still relatively closed? Are China's export markets still [music] uh in pain? Implying that the global supply chains are effectively seized up, [music] which implies very serious grave physical consequences if this prolongs.

[00:06:27]If Yes. Yes. Yes. Yes, we move on. We're not going to get duped [music] into the United States government tricking us like ponies whipping us around their finger with these stupid [ __ ] headlines. [music] Enough. Let's talk about something interesting. Maybe maybe I'll do a section on quantum. We'll talk about diet. We'll talk we'll do we'll do other things. [music] With that being said, let's get into chapter 2 because this is some of the interesting nuance that isn't just ceasefire, no ceasefire, ceasefire, no ceasefire, ceasefire, no ceasefire. Shut the [ __ ] up. Let's get into something interesting. What was interesting was the UAE. [music] So, the UAE, when I saw this headline hit the Bloomberg terminal, I was like, whoa. So, uh, and I quote, "The UAE is admitting that they may need external help on dollar access [music] to maintain their peg." Remember guys, when I said that the liquidity around the world is going to get very interesting if this prolongs, and it's not showing any signs of slowing down anytime soon.

[00:07:25]It's probably not something you ask if you think the situation is going to calm down shortly.

[00:07:31]>> So, what Malers is really describing here is [music] a trap. Iran does not need to win a single military battle.

[00:07:37]All they need to do is keep the pressure on long enough for the [music] cracks inside the US financial system to split wide open. And the Fed cannot save it this time. Raise rates on energy [music] inflation and you collapse the job market. Cut rates with oil prices climbing and you make inflation worse.

[00:07:54]There is no [music] clean move. That is what makes the happenings in the straight of Hormuz so dangerous. You cannot print oil. You cannot headline your way to full tankers. [music] The physical reality does not care about the ceasefire announcements. On the [music] left you have the VIX which is volatility index and on the right you have the move index which is the same thing but for treasuries. And I [music] so if you guys take a look at these charts, [music] volatility index was about to break through 30. And if you see when the VIX hit well [music] over 40, which was uh in April of last year, this was the liberation day or week or whatever the hell that was. [music] Um and then came crashing down. It looked like we were going to have a repeat of that. It [music] looked like the VIX was well on its way to above 40 and higher and out of nowhere it came tumbling right back down to under 20.

[00:08:54]Same thing with the move index. The move index was approaching 130. And we know that as soon as it gets around 150, 160, [music] 170, it's immediate print money.

[00:09:03]Immediate immediate immediate uh mayday, Mayday, Mayday. Print the money. Print the [music] money. Print the money.

[00:09:09]And the move index shot back down either or excuse excuse me shot [music] back down as well. And and for me this is [music] why assets are up.

[00:09:20]Assets are up because volatility is down. Now you're what you should be asking is why is volatility down? The outside world is chaos. [music] It's mayhem. The world has never been more volatile. We're entering this multipolar world. the United States coming off of kidnapping another country's president. [music] Literally like we're trick-or-treating. Like ring the doorbell. Hi. Take this [music] president, fly him to Manhattan for a photo shoot in a Nike tech jumpsuit. We then go pick another fight in the Middle East or they pick a fight with us. I don't know. Whatever side you're on. I'm a Bitcoiner. [ __ ] you. We get in another fight. Politicians lie, lie, lie, steal, steal, steal. War, war, war. We're still in it. The straight still closed. Global supply chain seizing up. Even the great big bad factory of the world, China, is starting to have issues. The world's never been more volatile. [music] Our sitting president has an approval rating in the 20 or 30s. Last time that happened, he got impeached. Midterms are this fall. The world's never been more volatile. What do you mean volatility is down? And to me, this is the best example that we don't [music] live in free markets anymore.

[00:10:33]So my next slide is just how market structure works in my opinion [music] is that we're just witnessing this this fiat h how do I articulate this to the common man on a show when [music] you print so much money in all of this fiat that's slloshing around in the filthy filthy filthy fiat financial system.

[00:10:58]You have all these hedge funds and all these quant traders [music] and all this Wall Street gobblygook non-productive nonsense.

[00:11:07]These guys have all the same trades on.

[00:11:12]So here's the the little diagram I made.

[00:11:16]Trump puts out a headline that we have a ceasefire. [music] That headline drops the VIX, which means volatility down. Volatility goes down, CTAs [music] must buy. That's that's how these programmatic funds work. All these hedge fund bros that are at happy hours telling you in Manhattan how their hedge funds better than the other hedge funds that you've heard about. No, it's not.

[00:11:39]These guys [music] aren't unique thinkers, okay? They all poach the same quants from all the other firms and those quants get paid a [music] big signing bonus to implement the same [ __ ] that they learned at Citadel. I'm just being honest. I'm telling you the truth.

[00:11:53]So Trump tweets out a ceasefire headline. He gets the VIX to sell off.

[00:11:57]So you got a bunch of people that's just selling V, selling V, selling V. And then this whole hash posh slash uh mosh pit of liquidity [music] says, "Oh, volatility's down, then we got to buy."

[00:12:12]They buy, prices rise. If the prices rise, that drives the VIX lower. So you get this like really powerful feedback loop where Trump is able to use headlines to impact these volatility indexes and these volatility indexes are what's used at these hedge funds and these large quant firms to lay risk on or off. And so you get Trump pushing a risk off which allows people to sell volatility. VIX [music] crashes. VIX crashes people systemically buy assets.

[00:12:45][music] when people buy all the assets and pile into the assets, the assets go higher. The higher the assets go, the lower the VIX goes. And so when I go back, you you you see this [music] like chop of the VIX where the VIX gets up to 30, gets slammed down, gets up to 30, gets slammed down.

[00:13:03]And so anyway, I was I took a look into this $37 billion of systemic community.

[00:13:11]Uh these guys are systematic. Excuse me.

[00:13:13]These guys are still short US equities.

[00:13:16]So they have a lot of assets [music] to cover. I guess I think market structure is what's driving prices higher.

[00:13:23]Personally, I think it's [music] market structure. It's engineered lower volatility. I am nervous to see consumer sentiment and asset prices diverge so much. We are now starting to realize all of the [music] fiat policy that's been imposed on the people for so long. The higher assets go, the more [music] pissed off the common man is going to get because he still can't afford a home. [music] He still can't afford groceries. He still can't afford rent. And what is that going to do to the social contracts, [music] to the political agendas that we end up electing, like what's happening in New York, to violence, both politically and socially. I'm very happy that Bitcoin is up. [music] Do I think we're back in a bull market and we're going to all-time highs? I don't know. [music] It's totally possible, but it's also totally possible that the markets start to price in what the physical reality of some of these supply chain things. But this was my best [music] guess. You know, people are like, "Why is Bitcoin going up? I don't understand." My best guess is, I mean, [music] fiat and money printing has gotten so bad that right now you have a president who's just announcing [music] headlines purely based on the stock market and trying to manipulate asset prices. And so [music] he's got I mean you got these quant firms that are hooked up to his truth social account and if he announces a ceasefire they start selling volatility and piling into assets which like you [music] you get these short squeezes and and and and then it goes the other way. The VIX the market's [music] fear gauge should be screaming right now. The world has never been more volatile by any real measure.

[00:15:14]A war in the Middle East with no end in sight. [music] Global supply chains seizing up. China cutting exports.

[00:15:21]Australia is nearly running out of jet fuel. [music] And the VIX is sitting below 20. That is not calm. That's manipulation. [music] Malers is saying Trump is using ceasefire headlines as a tool. [music] Every time he drops a favorable headline, programmatic hedge funds sell volatility and that mechanical selling triggers automatic buy orders across the entire [music] market. Assets go up, VIX goes down, VIX going down triggers more buying. It is a feedback loop built on headlines, not reality. [music] And the former Treasury Secretary's break the glass comment ties directly into this. That interview [music] did not air by accident. Governments do not let those words hit the press line without intention. What he was signaling is that the [music] people inside the system already know what happens when the Fed becomes the only buyer of US government debt. when nobody else is willing to lend Washington money because they do not trust they will [music] be paid back in real purchasing power. That moment is closer than markets are pricing in. Then there is the UAE.

[00:16:21][music] A Gulf state, one of the core pillars holding the petrod dollar together is quietly [music] walking into Washington asking for dollar swap lines.

[00:16:30]Malers read that clearly. [music] That is not a cash problem. That is a threat.

[00:16:34]It is the UAE telling the US that [music] if this mess is not cleaned up, they will start settling oil trades in Chinese UN. That conversation should be front page news everywhere. [music] But it's not. And in all of this, consumer sentiment is at historical lows. While [music] the stock market sits at all-time highs. That gap is what decades of currency debasement actually [music] looks like when it finally surfaces.

[00:16:58]Asset holders get richer. Everyone else gets [music] priced out of everything.

[00:17:02]Malers is not saying Bitcoin goes up because the bull market is back. [music] He is saying Bitcoin goes up because every other exit is closing. The dollar is under pressure. Treasuries are under pressure. [music] The petro dollar is under pressure. And the only asset sitting outside all of that is Bitcoin.

[00:17:19][music] Drop your thoughts in the comments. And don't forget to like and subscribe. See you in my next video.