Optimism Reignites as Bitcoin Price Chart Hits $82k, XRP and Altcoin Market Await Breadth Tease

本站添加: 2026-05-11

[00:00:13]Hey, what's going on everybody? This is the Blockchain Backer bringing you the latest cryptocurrency news and analysis.

[00:00:22]Today we'll be talking about the Bitcoin price chart as it sits right near $81,000 and we've seen some green action throughout this week. We've also seen the stock market continue to rise with the Russell 2000 setting new all-time highs. Same goes for the major indexes like the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. Very close. But with some upward price action comes renewed energy and excitement throughout the crypto market. So, we'll take a closer look at this to see if there's any legs to this.

[00:00:49]For the last few months, we've been looking at the market through the lens of that we've already reached the oversold conditions that we typically do on much larger time frames. This is the two-week chart showing that we've gotten to bare market historical lows on the relative strength index. And down here on the moving average convergence divergence or the MACD, we've done all the same behaviors that have marked when capitulation has already occurred throughout a market where our MAC D finally collapses on itself on the twoe time frame. And that of course has already happened here in 2026. The big challenge of course is that all of our bottoms of past bare markets have all looked different. So trying to identify signs to imply if this is going to look like a YOF accumulation. Is it going to be a V bottom? Is it going to roll and set a new low and then recover? Those are all the difficulties of these because in 2022 obviously we set a small new low going from 17 to 15. However, in 2018, we do not set a new low, holding our ground. And then, of course, back here in 2015, we do a WO off accumulation. So, while our bottom buildings always look the same on the indicators, our actual price structure tends to look different every time. Now, of course, the price structure that we've been looking for for this correction all year long has been similar price structures that we've seen happen with Bitcoin before. I posted about this yesterday and talked about it in markets in the morning that we've been looking at it through this lens for the last year. Quote, tweeting from back in July of 2025 when we were still working on that ABC bull flag before trying to go produce our actual real top to then have to pull all the way back to the 2021 high, which of course we've now done as was expected. We can go back to over a year ago to see that this was the ideas presented throughout here. Just look through all these thumbnails. This clearly was the thing that we were looking for on all of these as we were still working our way up anticipating that we were going to end up seeing this type of behavior where we do still set the new high and pull all the way back.

[00:02:45]But now it's all these complications of recoveries and structures to try to shift our way back up. However, we've already flashed all the same signals of what happens after the market has already capitulated and it occurs back to the levels that we were looking for prices to actually get to right here.

[00:03:00]You know, $60 to $70,000. But as prices have caught a bit in the last couple of days, of course, a lot more excitement happens, right? We've seen really kind of that despondence phase happen in the market. There's a big loss of interest in crypto because we had the big event happen back in February where we capitulated. Then prices go stagnant for a while. That's exactly what always happens. There's tons of excitement, tons of interest at the top. Then you get down to the low and there's a lack of interest, right? markets in the morning. Up in here, average viewer numbers, 3,000 concurrent viewers at any given moment. Get down here, average viewers, 1,00 to,200 viewers down in here at any given moment. That's typical psychological behavior. But as we've pushed our way up, now we're creeping back to that 1,400 to,500 concurrent viewers or some more interest, more questions of people asking, hey, are we on the cusp of alt season happening?

[00:03:51]Things like that. Cuz a little bit of green comes, a little bit of excitement renews itself. But typically there's a lot of phases that have to play out before we can start streaming epic alt season inbound or it is time you may send. One thing brought up in yesterday's live stream was the breadth, right? Have we seen the breadth signal flash itself of what happens when a bottom is in? Now a couple of years ago I built a breadth indicator which monitors 40 different assets and it flips itself green once we have officially put in a bottom. Right now we don't have anything flipping green or flipping on. As you can see, it really remains completely dead throughout an entire bare market until we actually do see some signs of life starting to return. While it won't always mark an actual literal bottom in the thick of the moment, it does confirm whether or not the bottom is actually in or if we've actually entered into a legitimate alt season. As we can see, it is still not turned on, just like in past bare markets. still waiting for some type of sign to arrive in here on the daily time frame for breadth to open up. Now, on a smaller time frame, if we move down to the 12-hour time frame, we do finally see our first signs of life in breadth after breadth completely collapsed on itself there. September 24th, never to return again here until late April, early May. There's finally some signs of it here. We can see that in the bare market of 2022, no breath. And then finally here in January, a little bit of breadth arrives on the 12-h hour time frame, pushing its way up. So there's a little bit of optimism there. The problem I have with this is it doesn't have a 100% track record when we're looking at it on the 12hour time frame.

[00:05:31]What does have a 100% track record is the daily time frame. And we can clearly see there's nothing here. However, the very first step you have to have to even get the daily to flip on is the 12-hour has to flip on first. It's just whether or not there's going to be enough momentum to continue to carry it to get the daily to actually flip on as well.

[00:05:51]Right? So essentially there's 40 coins that are in here. At least 70% if at least 70% of them are making meaningful moves then it means our breadth is open throughout the market. Breadth opening is typical of a broad-based recovery rather than just something like where capital is all shifting itself into safety within Bitcoin or something but instead it's going everywhere. So we don't have that just yet. Now, if we are to assume that Bitcoin is going to do an epic rebound and it's going to recover very quickly, even in the event of it recovering very quickly, you would still expect there to be a level of resistance to happen here somewhere between, you know, 83 to $88,000 and then it's still probably going to build a range in here before it can then shift up again if it's doing something like a Vbottom. An example of that would be right back in here which we talked about in markets in the morning where we build a range and I'll do this so we can look at it a little closer to understand. Right? You still come off the lows, you build a range and then there's typically a liquidation down here to the low of the range again before it can then shift out. Right? So we shift our way up. We attempt to take out the highs and sweep the highs and then liquidate down to the lows again to head higher. That's the concept of what we're talking about over here. for there to be a continuation if it's like a Vbottom that there would still be a range likely to be built from this area with a liquidation at the end to then shift up. That's also similarly to this type of recovery that we saw in here. It's the same concept of what we're just talking about. Comes off the lows, attempts to sweep the highs, and then liquidates down to the lows before it can continue and then continue climbing even higher after that. in our examples of using IGV as the correlation to the cryptocurrency market as Bitcoin has tracked along with the software sector. So well even in the event that we do push our way up in here and do get ourselves into a recovery here for IGV.

[00:07:45]Again, you can even see in these types of examples that same thing happens. We get a recovery. We go up and sweep the top and then we liquidate down to the low before then continuing higher. So even if IGV recovers, right, still looking for another range to be built before it can go higher. And these are just the concepts of typically what happens when we go into recovery that regardless of what type of recovery we look at, typically there's going to be another range that gets built. We'll climb our stair step our way up, a range will get built, a liquidation will happen, and then a continuation, right?

[00:08:16]And you know, outside of doing clickbait of what everybody wants to hear, right?

[00:08:20]and it's going to get the most engagement of just saying straight line up to moon which we all want. If I have to be incredibly realistic, this is the most realistic path of the most optimistic path. It's not that I even have a lot of conviction to say it must do this and that we're still not just going to stay down here for 6 months, but this would be a very classic recovery that we see in Bitcoin time and time again on smaller time frames, larger time frames, and even on major indexes after things like the great financial crisis, right? that this is exactly how recoveries can happen. And these ranges typically get built after we shift our way back up in here. So I think that's our most optimistic path of saying, hey, we don't have to set a new low or we don't have to double bottom in the market is first of all seeing IGV push its way up, which right now in pre-market, we're almost at 90. So if we can get our way pushed up really into that 95100, I think that really increases our odds just because that's what we're tied to. But when I was meeting people in person at XRP Las Vegas and the things that I was saying in markets in the morning yesterday, what I just pointed to a second ago when we're talking about right in here of what happened at this particular moment is that there was a liquidation. I do think our next liquidation that we have in the market and if that scares you to say our next liquidation in the market um even in a bull market there will be liquidations. we will even if we do nothing but rip to the upside from here there will be half a dozen major marketwide liquidations even in a bull run. So it's 100% certain and there's not many things you can really say about a market with 100% certainty but it's 100% certainty we will see more liquidations throughout this market. So it shouldn't scare you that I say that cuz that's just a known fact of this market. But it seems as though the next liquidation is going to be the opportunity and I'm probably going to put cash into the next liquidation whether that comes from higher prices like this or if it's like this because all the signals we flash in the market so far imply we're at those phases. If it gives this new low, it'll be a crazy buying opportunity in my opinion. But I think it's reasonable to think we could see something like this as well. So we know we're very deep into this market. I hate to say try not to get too excited yet, right? Like I think we've done a good job for the last couple of months just constantly pointing to like this is exactly how bottoms are built throughout the market. Now we're seeing a little bit of renewed strength, but now it's time for it to really kind of show its hand on what it's going to look like on an actual recovery. Even if we're ripping in here and we are vbottoming in here is still likely says there's a range built here first. And if that's it, and if that's our best case scenario, what we would likely see is a liquidation happen on that second attempt to hit that low. And if it did, we would go back to things like back in 2023 where people were saying spicy BCB cuz, you know, we're look people were calling for 12K and we were very aggressively saying that wasn't going to happen in here. So nice to see upside action. The market's still going to have to show its cards a little bit on this thing, right? We still haven't seen any type of deviation happen over here for things like XRP to imply something huge is coming out of here by any means.

[00:11:28]That's the case for most of the altcoin market. That explains why breadth hasn't opened in the market yet because really this has been consolidated as even I wrote about in my newsletter. Bitcoin is the leading bid right now. And as I've reiterated this week when people are asking is alt season like right around the corner and things like that.

[00:11:45]Everybody wants to think this time is different. And by all means I'll take this is time this time is different.

[00:11:50]I'll take, you know, the market ripping to the upside and surging and everything's epic right away. But historically, we have to see a bigger bid show up in Bitcoin before any type of alt season ever presents itself. And people have a hard time with accepting that because we built a lot of cognitive dissonances on our perceptions of what crypto is or, you know, all the money, international settlements or secrets upon secrets, uh, when the secrets aren't really there. It's like the market just acts exactly like it's supposed to and that, you know, once we see an actual expansion happen for Bitcoin, that tends to be when we see the actual expansion happen for our favorite altcoins, right? And that's no different. The markets always behave the exact same. And so people may get tired of hearing about Bitcoin. If you're like an Ethereum investor or if you're an XRP investor or whatever it is that you invest in, you may get tired of hearing about Bitcoin or me showing Bitcoin. But the reality is I'm doing you a much better service by showing you Bitcoin uh than us spending a lot of time, you know, cheerleading uh a particular altcoin when we know we need to get a very particular setup to happen. And the setups we're looking for, of course, is to see IGV work its way back up and to see Bitcoin work its way back up. And I got asked in markets in the morning, I get asked more frequently right now, is it time for the, you know, it is time you may send tweet like what happened in late 2024, just days before XRP took off. The reason that I was able to make that tweet is because I'm always looking at these things. I'm not isolated in an echo chamber of staring at the XRP price chart. I'm watching things like, is is the breadth opening, right? Is Bitcoin expanding? Are stocks behaving? And then when all of that stuff aligns and the stars align at one particular moment, it's like, okay, go for it, right? not some secret upon secret, not something different happening or secret ledger or some bank tried something, right? You know what I mean? All of the stuff comes back to monitoring these things at the exact same time. And so, right now, what we're watching for is to see what kind of resistance will show up in here. What type of range will get built from here?

[00:13:49]Because I think what we would all like to see is that a range gets built and then we can try to work our way out quickly rather than an extended, you know, double bottoming or a yoff really getting itself built before we can go out. And so the reason I keep bringing up the liquidation thing is because if we build a range in here and then we liquidate right here, it would probably imply this market's recovering a whole lot faster than people do think. And there's, you know, that saying, you know, if you're one step ahead, you look like a genius. But if you're two steps ahead, you look like you're insane. And so conceptually, when we're looking this far out in advance, it doesn't kind of register very well with a lot of people because this market is, you know, the participants are actively seeking out information for what's going to happen right now and particularly, you know, how quickly are we going to the moon?

[00:14:36]Unfortunately, the vast majority of information out there is designed to capture you because of those biases that people have. But I do think this is very realistic that would align with a lot of the discussions that we do have. We were looking for confluence of IGV to pop. It is very likely a range would get built in IGV which would be very likely for a range to get built in Bitcoin. And then what we would be looking for is the conclusion of that range. And if there is a major liquidation because if there is a major liquidation to conclude this range, it would likely imply that is a floor for us to launch off of and continue much higher. So if I've taken the wind out of your sale of a little bit of green action, that's not my goal.

[00:15:15]It's to look at it very realistically to say we've done the exact same things of what typical bottoms look like. We're now working on recoveries. There's really no examples that we have of recoveries that can go firing to the moon uh within a couple of days and recover. While I'll happily accept that, I have to be very realistic in my approach on how I think a recovery could happen. I think we will build a range boundary. I think that range will conclude with a liquidation. And I think the biggest bull signal we will see is when the news has headlines that say anywhere from two to five billion liquidated in the crypto market. And what will happen in that moment is everyone will be terrified as they always are. And that's our launch pad to go on higher again. Right? One step ahead you look like a genius. Two steps ahead you look crazy. I think I'm trying to lock this into people's heads ahead of time that have seen this movie many, many, many, many times. We've seen a nice little bounce come off the lows here. We're definitely reaching up to areas where there could be resistance even for the most bullish style recoveries. But even the most bullish style recoveries, they're typically going to find a range. They're just typically going to do that. And then you're looking for things like a liquidation to come right here at the end to imply we are not going to the lows. And so that's what I'll be looking for is to see that we do have a liquidation. We maintain a floor. And in that event where liquidation shows up and we maintain a floor, we can likely rule out having to come back down here.

[00:16:42]So again, our context is bottom building for the market on the larger time frames. We are still waiting for confirmation on the daily time frame of breadth to mark a low. The great debate is trying to figure out the bottoming structure in here. It's still unknown, but even in the most bullish style recoveries, if we are producing the most bullish style recoveries, you would still expect some resistance to show up in here before we get to like $90,000 and a new range to be built. And in that event, we'd be looking for a liquidation floor to hold in here. And if that happens, that likely rules out the bottom coming in again, and we'll be ready to go catapult higher after that.

[00:17:18]Till then, we still want to see Brent open, but it's nice that we're talking about additional recovery structures in here as the market is cooperating and as speculated that February 5th was our capitulation moment. So, recoveries take time. Even the most bullish ones that we get tend to stair step their way up.

[00:17:35]We'll keep our eyes on it, but like I said to multiple people at XRP Las Vegas and here on the channel this week, my thoughts are the next liquidation that we get is a buying opportunity for me.

[00:17:45]We're just going to have to wait and see what style and structure that's going to look like when it occurs. And don't be scared of liquidations in this market.

[00:17:51]You should expect them that they do occur. They always do. It's never of if the next one. It's just when the next one and what is the context of it when it occurs and that you're prepared for it and when it comes the market's terrified. There's typically an opportunity there. So, all right, that's going to be it for this one, guys. Thank you so much for watching. You can check out the newsletter that I just published last week over here at blockchainbacker.substack.com at substack.com titled, "Crypto market is quiet, but the bottom building signals are not as Bitcoin is the leading bid.

[00:18:18]Liquidity silently sets a new all-time high. Setups continue to improve and breadth is the signal, just like we talked about in this video. It includes a 38minute audio recording on here where I read the newsletter and go through each of the charts that are published in this newsletter. There's a link down here in the description of this video to the newsletter at blockchainbacker.substack.com or you can just go directly within your browser. Otherwise, thank you so much for watching. If you could please like this video and give it a thumbs up. If you're new to the channel, please subscribe and hit the notification bell so you could be notified of when I create new content and when I go live.

[00:18:52]As always, this is not investment advice and I am not a financial adviser. But if you ever need a pickme up or a little bit of reassurance, just remember that the blockchain backers got your back.

[00:19:06]Have a good one.