WHEN DOES BTC TOP?!

本站添加: 2026-05-19

[00:00:00]What?

[00:00:05]All right, my friends. Today is Monday, May the 11th.

[00:00:08]Few hours after the New York open, finished up my trade section for the day.

[00:00:12]So, let's go ahead and do the market outlook and plans for the week ahead.

[00:00:14]The Bitcoin macro conversation, the local trend from the start of Q2 has been phenomenal. So, hopefully you guys have all been participating. I think the vast majority of people in Paragon have been been riding this with us cuz we called that really early, called that at 65k.

[00:00:27]Um and you know, it's been phenomenal.

[00:00:29]So, my main expectation is that we're going to trade up towards 84k. And then from there, we're going to make a kind of a judgment call around how it reacts, right? Does it look like we're losing momentum? Do we get some sort of escalation that doesn't really you know, have any follow through? So, if there's maybe a quick inefficient move up into 84k, maybe that'd be a reason to look for a hedge. But, um I'm not trying to be super quick um with my, you know, defensive positioning. I would rather be a little bit late than be a little bit early with this. Um so, yeah. I mean, I think that Bitcoin's probably going to trade up higher in the 84k direction.

[00:01:01]From there, my, you know, my main thesis is that as we approach the summertime, the risk assets are going to lose their momentum and the bids going to dry up, which means the Bitcoin will go into a either a rangy or like kind of a bloody um kind of environment for a couple of months. And then from there, I expect price to compress and build out, you know, kind of a triangle formation as we get really close to the start of Q4 and then trade up from there. Um so, if we don't really reject at 84k, then I would say that means we're going to trade a lot higher than people expect. So, keep that in mind that if there's not some sort of like pretty obvious failure point around 84k, then we could trade up towards 100k. Um so, you know, the way I'm positioned, it's kind of win-win cuz I'm long across the board. So, either we see some sort of reason to hedge, we put on the hedge and go into defense mode, or it trades up a lot higher than people expect and catches people really off guard, makes people FOMO in a lot higher, and then maybe we pull back from there. So, I mean, the Q2 bull thesis has been pretty great. We'll look Look that on the quarterly view up here in just a second. I do think, you know, like I've been saying for months now, this is definitely in my opinion the macro bottom formation, whether we trade back down and test the lows in the like the 70k region or not, right? You got to play this day by day. I do think that there's a like a high likelihood that the bid dries up and that we move back into the direction of the lows. I don't think that we'll make any sort of massive new lows, so I think all the people waiting for 40 and 50k are going to remain sidelined forever and be forced to buy higher. Okay, medium time frame built out this multi-month range.

[00:02:27]From there, I made the clear point that we were going to build out a comp, you know, trade up from there, build out another comp, you know, trade up from there, build out another comp. At some point, I do expect that price should have some sort of acceleration where we have kind of a quote-unquote god candles, what people would call it because, you know, this has been really slow and stable.

[00:02:44]It's honestly caught me off guard, the fact that there hasn't been that acceleration in price. But, you know, from a, you know, auction market theory standpoint, this is just so clean, the way that we're trading up, building these comps, trading up higher, building out another comp. So, what I want to see is you want what we want to see is we want to see the next couple comps be really short, where they're only built for, you know, a few days, and then you see the next kind of drive up, and that's what would, you know, represent the acceleration, right? Because we want to see this start to kind of go parabolic as things play out and escalate to, you know, accelerate in into the upwards direction. Originally, you know, we talked about this a lot, the idea that once we got over 72k, right? 72k was really strong resistance, and once once we got over that, we expected to fill out the low volume node. We have really done quite a bit of filling out on that, and it's been in a really healthy and organic kind of way.

[00:03:32]So, you know, I think that if 84k doesn't reject, then, honestly, we're going to be so close to retesting the previous range at that point that I really think that we'll wind up just going a lot higher, right? So, if we if we don't reject 84k, I'm I'm going to be really, really optimistic about us trading a lot higher. Maybe we like swing past 84k and then they kind of have a clear rejection or something, so keep that in mind, but just from a like simplistic argument standpoint, if we get above 84 and like really hold above 84, I think that means we trade higher than people were originally planning for, myself included. You know, until we get to the summertime, once we get to the summertime, I'm probably going to try to take a couple weeks off, maybe you know, maybe take like, you know, two to three weeks off to uh I've got some trips planned, going to do some friends and family trips, and I'm just kind of relax and kind of, you know, enjoy the uh you know, you know, the fruits of my labor, if you will, right? But, uh I am looking to really push this year for the Paragon and see you know, the kind of ways that we can level things up. It's been phenomenal seeing all the growth from you guys, you know, the actual students, you know, the growth that we've seen over the past I mean, over the past 4 and 1/2 years, it's been crazy, but for whatever reason in the past like 6 months or something, ever since Bitcoin kind of nuked everybody's ports, right, and ruined uh everybody's kind of expectations of just a free, you know, bull market, the lockdown on it from traders has been really great, and you watching guys grow individually, it's been really cool to watch. So, we want to continue to push that and see how far you guys can go and how far we can uh kind of all go together.

[00:04:58]So, that's it for me, guys. Let me know if you have any questions. I should have covered pretty much every major talking point, but if there's something that you want to ask me about in my question section, just go ahead and do that.

[00:05:07]Cheers, everybody.