Bitcoin & Altcoins: Buy The Dip?

[00:00:00]Hey everyone, welcome back to Crypto Cash. Thanks again for joining me here.

[00:00:03]Hope you're having a great day. Quick housekeeping um you know, update here for you. I'll be out of the office Monday, Tuesday, probably Wednesday of next week, uh recovering from neck surgery. And then also, I'm adding uh between now and then and of course moving forward, I'll be adding more uh you know, analysis for altcoins. Uh just make sure to comment below, let me know which ones you want me to cover. I'll go and add it to list. The ones that get the most votes effectively, I'll be able to uh you know, make sure to cover those here moving forward. Those will be separate videos. So, if you're, you know, if your coin isn't covered here today in this analysis, don't worry.

[00:00:32]It'll definitely be covered otherwise.

[00:00:33]Now, when we look at the analysis here, just the big picture for Bitcoin, we're going to be focusing more specifically on this, you know, outflow of uh of spot volume. That's pretty common when you see these retracements occur with a, you know, pretty much a fake out. We we dip down, the price jumped up, and then jumped up, and then it ripped down again. So, it's kind of a this is a standard stuff. This is why I don't like trading Fridays because Fridays have the probably the most shenanigans you're going to find throughout the week.

[00:00:58]Mainly because it's a lot of profit taking near the end of the week. Uh because obviously market makers and larger entities aren't willing to hold through the weekend. So that's kind of what's going on there. Um we're going to talk a little bit about these order books, too. I think the 61 to 62k range is still a distinct possibility. Uh but I also feel like the larger structure um is looking pretty good. We got a pretty decent channel here. We're obviously going to pay attention to this, of course, but if this ascending channel continues to hold, uh, we're going to be in pretty good shape there, of course.

[00:01:25]But it's going to take time to figure that out. But I do think month end 67K seems like a much more realistic probability. All depends on how soon or fast this next pullback occurs if it were to, of course, right? We never truly know. Uh, the lower time frames do indicate that we had a nice little breakout there, but it's again standard Friday breakout, fake out. You know, that's kind of just the way that it goes. But either way, we're going to look at some backend data here. Make sure we analyze kind of what's going on with um you know, larger position sizes and also just kind of the overall liquidation scenario here. It's kind of shifting gears a little bit. We want to be mindful of that. All right, so be sure to stick around. Got a good one today. Let's take a look.

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[00:02:11]So jump in the back and data and just quickly recognize kind of where we're at here with the market. It's pretty straightforward, but spot volume's coming down the price with it. It's a standard stuff, right? We had a pretty good push to the upside middle of the week and of course we have that typical Monday pump and Wednesday pivot, right?

[00:02:28]So Wednesday essentially the price started to pull back and now we're here at that tentative support. I mentioned yesterday it was like that secondary support outside of 64 that 63 62.5K range. So, we're going to discuss kind of what those areas or more so why this area is specifically uh targeted, but more importantly, you know, with open interest kind of tapering off, it's a Friday. Fridays are the most shenanigan-like uh price action you'll ever see. Uh you generally see a lot of rips up and down, which we've already witnessed here so far. But until spot volume increases, we're going to be in a position right now where it's difficult to trust the price action. And also, we're trending into a weekend here, of course, folks, too. So, there's that as well. Now, when it comes to outliers here, there's two specific outliers we want to be mindful of. These are the two areas I would be targeting for heavier position sizing. We've got 61,000 and 65,000. Uh they're basically this is the aggregated order books. These are levels that are heavily targeted and 65,000 now has that target on its back as well, right? So, just be mindful there.

[00:03:25]There's more interest in spot below the price which generally can pull the price towards it. But also on the same accord, you know that there's still some left to the upside too. So, we are kind of smack dab in the middle of that, right? We're at 63,000. 61 and 65 are the two outliers. So, not the most awesome situation here. It's generally what why I don't love trading transitions. Uh quick congrats to our community too for for the most part as well. Just kind of touching on this. We shorted ETH last night. 45% profit there on that uh that short there. Closed our Salana long essentially slightly in the red. But make sure you're reading through my premium updates. I want to mention this because some folks don't tap into this for some reason. I'm literally telling you once or twice a day what's going on in the market and more so what we're doing as a community. So, we did short ETH. Uh just waiting for Bitcoin to pull back. So, at this point, is this that pivot point? Are we going to bounce?

[00:04:13]Let's go and see if that is a possible reality for us. Uh true retail longs are quite high. Currently, this is a 24-hour look back. It's going to be normal or it's normally going to be like this because when the price comes to a specific level, an interested level, which 625 to 63K is that level, then we're going to see a spike in interest.

[00:04:30]Generally speaking, that's not construed as a positive sign, especially with open interest kind of being low in the last 48 hours. It basically just tells us that we're, you know, more we have more propensity for further downside. So, be mindful of that. The thing that keeps gives me pause here to to believe that we may pivot here, at least temporarily, is the fact that most of the 3-day liquidation has been swept, actually, I would say only about a third rather. So, we got a decent chunk that that got hit there. Obviously, there was a big chunk at 637, but more importantly, there's still some left down as low as about 61.8. So I think I'm thinking just mentally here 618 might be a good possible pivot for us for it to continue lower this weekend. Uh that is a local low as well. That's generally where those areas of uh you know liquidation tend to accumulate. All right. So we're also once again pretty pretty much in the middle of these two large liquidation ranges. We do have some liquidation between 60.5 and 61.8. So there is possibility of that. But uh once more depends on who you you know who you ask and where where you look right cuz obviously the local liquidation last 7 days tells us here a slightly different story that uh you know that 61.5k range is probably the the worst case for the pullback here.

[00:05:36]Once more all depends on kind of how you look at it. But July being statistically a very favorable green month I think we're still more poised to go upwards. I think 67K is still a distinct probability, not just based on liquidation, but local range highs, just kind of the natural es and flows of of this month and how it's supposed to work. Usually, we do see a retracement, a sharp retracement middle of the month, which we just saw. So, it could it could suggest that we're we're tenatively bottomed out. Now, liquidation delta has shifted bearish. I don't love to see this here when I'm considering longs. uh that gives me pause to want to consider a long, but it does emphasize the fact that there's still a lot of support in this range with spot volume increasing once the price hit that 63k range. Uh when it comes to open interest though, there is two areas that we want to pay attention to. 618 and 61,000. Those are basically the two outliers there to pay attention to. We could see the price pull towards those levels. Those do work kind of as magnets in a lot of ways.

[00:06:31]Now, when it comes to lower time frames, we can see again this kind of janky price action where the price worked itself into a falling wedge, trapped a lot of late longs here, pulled back, and now shorts just got hit, right? So, it's that kind of that standard just rinse and repeat, you know, just melt faces in both directions. And then, you know, once you've done so, the market is yours, right? If you got millions and millions of dollars. So, at this point here, uh, based on this ascending trend here, we're still maintaining above the 200 day SMA on the 4hour time frame.

[00:06:59]That's usually a pretty strong indicator. We can see a lot of confluence here at 63,000 or 62.8, right? So, it's kind of a good area there to consider along once more based on kind of some some some confluence.

[00:07:11]It's not a lot though, right? I would say statistically at this point we're we're still, you know, you probably best to expect the price to go lower, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes higher.

[00:07:20]Now, a lot of the reasons why I feel that way is because we are pretty well overextended. We've been moving for 36 hours straight since what uh Wednesday night effectively to the downside. All right. Now, it's common if we see here previously, we hit a 9 on TD squel, the price rallied back. We could very well rally towards 67K. Now, is that probable on a weekend? Hit or miss. I don't know if it is specifically, but it can and and will happen a lot of times because we have contrarian weekends lately, right? Where the weekends do exact opposite what you think they will. For the most part though, majority of weekends have been green. So there's that as well as an overextension leading into it. That gives me a little bit more uh you know confidence in taking a long even though it's not a very confident play to take along today. Right? It's a weekend coming up. Fridays are always funky. Uh it's probably generally best to wait. But right now we have slightly more I want to emphasize the word slightly slightly more potential reality of upside potential here. and um you know just not it's not the most optimal situation, right? This falling wedge pattern here did break out, but so far we're on track or on target to have, you know, lost that that descending trend line. It's not not usually the strongest sign, right? So, we have our our lower ascending trend line here to kind of rely on. So, we do have potential here.

[00:08:36]625, I think, is that support for us.

[00:08:38]So, until 625 is lost, 62.5K, I think we got to presume the price is going to go higher, right? It's kind of just this ascending channel, more likelihood of further upside, right?

[00:08:49]Albeit slightly less than what I would say normally is a is a good sign. So, all in all, that's kind of where we're at. I I know it's not really the the the what you're probably looking for. I know folks, you know, tune in to be like, I want an answer from cryptocash. What way are we going today? Um, I would say slightly more upside, but once again, uh, you know, these are these are truly not a awesome conditions right now. And I would say most days of the week, that's the common common theme, right?

[00:09:16]Not great trading conditions. Uh but once more, you just kind of got to wait for these outliers. 65 61K. Those are the two outliers I'm looking for uh to consider either a confident long or a short. Now, hindsight's 2020 could have shorted at 65K, but it really really was looking like it was going to peak out and hit that little 66 to 67K range.

[00:09:35]Often times when you break a local range high, you do see that continuation. But right now at this point, the it's it's looking pretty pretty solid here as far as just kind of standard Friday trading conditions. Okay? So, be careful trading this weekend, but I'm slight I have a slight bias towards the upside. Uh at this point, just based on everything we just discussed. All right, folks. Take a look here at Ethereum. Just kind of quickly understand where we're at at this point. We talked yesterday about the head and shoulders pattern played out pretty well. Nice solid profits for our community uh for that what good 45%.

[00:10:06]So again, if you want access to the trading academy community or signals group, that's all linked down below. Be sure to check that out. If you're part of our community, make sure you read through the premium updates. I gave you a quick heads up that we're shorting ETH yesterday and basically closed our salon long there. Waiting for Bitcoin to pull back first. So now that Bitcoin's pulled back, are we going to pivot? That's kind of what we would want to try to figure out. I'm going to be a little patient here to make sure we don't just take a long right away. But at this point here for ETH, we can see majority of that fair value gap. In fact, damn near all of the entire fair value gap is filled.

[00:10:34]Look at that perfect wick down right there just to the lower range. It's pretty amazing how that ends up working out. Uh anyways, typically you're going to see this kind of retracement for a head and shoulders pattern. Uh I would say 1780 would be a best case scenario if we continue lower. So that's kind of just what we're looking at for the head and shoulders. And then when we take a look here at the side by side for ETH, it's pretty much the same as Bitcoin right now. There's nothing super spectacular here. So it's not really prime long conditions if you ask me.

[00:11:02]It's just kind of a it's not great, right? So, so careful taking longs right now. I know it's tempting to buy the dip, but sometimes when it buy when the dip uh occurs, it just keeps dipping, right? So, just make sure you're a little more careful and cautious here. Now, when we take a look here at the liquidation here, ETH on the right hand side here or this, you know, the right hand panel essentially is just telling us where we're at for the overall liquidation delta. We've shifted gears to bearish, but we're still at the break even point. So, for the most part, while it is slightly red, it doesn't suggest that we've shifted bearish, it just tells us that we're pretty well maxed out. So, with us being overextended, hitting majority of all the liquidation here outside of 1750 to,700, which will only happen if Bitcoin trends towards 61,000, I think ETH is in a much better place than you might think, right? So, for the most part, I think a pivot here does seem sensible. Um, but, you know, at this point, it's a higher risk to consider a long leading into a weekend like this.

[00:11:58]So, you're probably better off waiting.

[00:12:00]Um, but for the most part here, ETH does still have majority of strong signs overall that it wants to push higher up.

[00:12:08]But an insta recovery from here based on the timing of where we're at, it's pretty low probability. So, I would just wait uh maybe just say wait for the 1700 range before you consider a long. We got our point of control at 1780. There's a lot of confluence there with this head and shoulders playing out, too. So, at this point, uh, no trade is probably the best trade, but I would target 1780 for a potential long consideration. If you consider a long now, average in, go low, don't get crazy because this is just not really, this is not phenomenal trading conditions. Okay. All right. Those are my thoughts. What are yours? Comment below. To my premium and premium plus traders, make sure you take full advantage of this offer. We got a $50 reward bonus weekly simply by being a premium or premium plus member. Links in the description below. All right, folks.

[00:12:50]Take a look here at Salana. And this descending trend is still continuing, right? There's a reason why we closed our long with a slight loss and flipped short on ETH because this coin has shown significant divergence once it peaked out at $79. Okay, so once more, sometimes you just got to cut your losses there and I'm glad and happy that uh we did. So, congrats to our committee for that. Now, when it comes to man, this is just ugly. This is uh this is just a terrible, terrible situation. You don't trade long into this. So, for the most part, what you want to wait for, pretty straightforward, is just for the price to establish, you know, higher highs and higher lows. And then once it kind of starts moving up, that's when you consider more so a long. Obviously, there's a lot of factors involved, but for the most part, that's the basics, right? Wait for the descending trend line to break. Um, usually the price action will establish rangebound activity for a little while and then you consider a trade once that local range high is essentially hit, right? That's kind of where you look at it. So anyways, that's just sent us some food for thought there. That's really not super helpful, but some folks need to know kind of the basics of trading and that's really a basic thing you need to learn is just kind of how to identify that shift in momentum. When we look at the big picture though, liquidation delta is at 1 billion. That's really high for this coin. Uh which tells us overextension. Okay, doesn't take a rocket scientist to know this coin has just been beat down for the last $40. Uh looking on the left hand side though, $74 pretty much every level of liquidation has been hit. anyone who longed in the last 48 to to 72 hours is gone. So what what's left now, but upside, right? Doesn't mean we're just going to shoot up because of it. It just suggests that after sweeping this local range low, there's a stronger chance we do bounce from here. So let's see if there's any kind of confluence here on the 4hour time frame and just quickly identify kind of where we're at. Uh so if we look here, got some previous range highs. There is some confluence here in the current range and you can kind of see that we've double bottomed for lack of better terms. We had a previous range high at $74. This is that area of confluence too, not just based on volume, but open interest as well. We've identified 74 being that that support floor. So, this is an area in which I would be interested very loosely in taking a long position with this coin under the impression Bitcoin doesn't rip down, right? Because we can see what happens to Salana when Bitcoin rips down. So, for the most part, the safer play is to not trade this coin. But if you're going to insist 74 is there's a lot a lot of confluence here kind of letting us know that upside could it should be realistic. But I don't want you to walk away with that cuz we're below a lot of moving averages. We're under 50 on the RSI. We really haven't seen the true bottom just yet. But once more confluence is heavy at 74. So we got to kind of see if that level holds or not. So I would recommend being patient and waiting. But if you insist on taking a trade, um, you know, just make sure it's low position size and low leverage so you can kind of sustain the es and flows because truly at this point, Salana has shifted significant gears in the last 48 hours. Wednesday pivot pivot high is not a great it's not a great fit for Salana, right? Did not handle that pivot very well where Bitcoin is only pulling back by a small margin. So anyways, those are my thoughts. What are you thinking? Are you long or short on Salana right now? All right, folks. Take a look here at Sooie.

[00:15:57]Suie was looking pretty strong leading into Wednesday, right? Obviously, we got that Wednesday pivot for Bitcoin. And we take a look here. We've pretty realistically hit this descending trend line smack dab. In other words, we have a lot of confluence here. Our point of control is roughly 74 cents. We can see even though we've broken below that this descending trend line kind of showing us here that there is some potential for pivot here. Now again, when you when you take trades on coins, you don't take trades based solely on trend lines, but these trend lines do give us pretty good indication that we've shifted gears to potentially continue higher. So a lot of times you want to give those levels a chance to to to hold, which at this point it is tentatively, and that's a positive sign. We also want to look at the lower time frames here, too. This is like the hourly. We can kind of recognize that Bitcoin is moving up, you know, sideways and up, where Sue is kind of like just mostly sideways with a lot of candle wicks. So, this is not optimal trading conditions. I mean, it really truly never is on Sooie, but the truth is that's just one of these situations where you're probably better off leaving it alone cuz when you got these wick city for the most part, that's like a big big battle going on. It does suggest the local bottom is in because of how many wicks we're seeing in this area though. So, there's that. Uh liquidation delta is super high to the downside and there's still a lot of liquidation left to the downside, too. I'm very concerned for Sue at this point. I don't really like what I see here. Once more, it's not really you're never going to truly love what you see if you kind of look at the things that I look at, right?

[00:17:21]There's always something telling you that you you shouldn't take a trade. But at this point, there's more more conflicting factors saying that it's just too high a risk to take it to the long right now and to wait for maybe that 74 76 cents range to be retested or broken before we consider a trade.

[00:17:38]Right? So even though yes, you'll probably miss out on some opportunity, you'll be in a much better place by not taking a long and the price goes straight down, right? Wait for the price to reclaim those levels which are once again that 74 to 76 range before you consider a long. Uh a lot of this is based on Bitcoin. If Bitcoin rips up this weekend, sure, Sue will respond well. It's poised and ready for it. So if you remember that and understand that going into your trade, you're going to be a lot better off, right? So try not to get too too hard and too too fast with a with a trade right now. this is a not optimal trading conditions. Okay, no matter how you look at it. So once more, Sue does not have my vote on a long or a short right now. I think waiting until tomorrow is probably the better call.

[00:18:16]We'll reevaluate then and kind of see what what happens and what um if there's any better structured scenarios here for us. But um you know, I would say I'm 51% uh leaning towards Sue going higher here. But that's based on the premise that Bitcoin holds 63,000. Okay. A lot of a lot of ifs right now. Not the best uh scenario for this. You're right.

[00:18:35]Right. specifically Friday, you know, time dump leading into a Friday. It's never really the best conditions to take along. Usually, we see green weekends when there's a red Friday. So, there is that, but it's still kind of a hope and a prayer for right now. So, be careful.

[00:18:49]Never trade on hopes or prayers. Either way, I hope you learned something today.

[00:18:52]Comment below if you have. Uh, thanks again for being an amazing part of my life. Links down there below as well if you want to become a better trader.

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