BITCOIN: WARNING SIGNAL CONFIRMED?!!! #BTC Price Prediction & Crypto Crash News Today

Added: 2026-05-13

[00:00:00]All right, let's get right into the Bitcoin chart for today because as you can see, we are still targeting 52,000 in the Bitcoin price. And we do have a confirmed warning signal on the lower time frames, which I will also show you in this video today. However, I actually wanted to start off with this comment that I got in the Discord server because here Eric is basically noticing that my bias on the higher time frame is still bearish, which is indeed correct. I have been completely open to a bounce even on the higher time frames here. But the base case expectation for me is indeed that we are eventually just going to roll over and likely even see new lower lows below this 60k level. So yes, I do believe that all of this is one giant bull trap even while we have been taking advantage of this move to the upside. So let's dive deeper into this question. I actually went ahead and fully integrated this into one of my charts with a red box, a gray box, and a green box right here. Simply said, anything below 91.3K, I still think it's just completely bare market territory. Even if we go all the way up to 91K, guys, the base case for me is still that we are just going to be rolling over. Now, if we are anywhere between 91 and 97K, this is more of a gray area where it is less clear. But after we break 97,000, if that is going to happen, then at that point, we are making a high above this previous high right here. And this is actually a high in the external structure. So, the external structure is what I'm talking about with these highs and lows right here. And then the highs and lows that you're seeing in between, this is all just internal structure stuff. But my point is that for now we're still making lower lows and lower highs. So this is why I'm saying that we are still in a bare market. On top of that, there's also some seasonality for Bitcoin. On top of that, we are also dealing with this four-year cycle. And even though many people are currently saying that the four-year cycle is dead, which is very predictable. In fact, we've been talking about the sentiment getting more and more bullish every day to be one of the things to be looking out for. So, so this is not surprising whatsoever.

[00:02:07]people are going to be saying that we have already entered into a new bull market even though there's no technical confirmation for this yet. So even if these people end up being correct guys I want to be very clear if at this point you are saying that the next bull market has started you are not basing this off of actual analysis. So yes, there is a possibility that you end up being correct and then you can point and laugh at everyone who was bearish in here for example. But while we are trading in this red box, there is no confirmation that we are actually in a bull market.

[00:02:41]Right now, one circumstance where this could change is, for example, if we end up rolling over and then while we are in this window for the 4-year cycle low between June of 2026 and March of 2027 and we then find a bottom and start trending to the upside, then at least we were in the timing window for the 4-year cycle low. So maybe if it doesn't end up being a new lower low and instead we just get some chompy sideways price action, get within this timing window and then start trading to the upside.

[00:03:11]Fair enough. That would not be too far out of the ordinary. But to already be talking about that now is just far far too early. Last thing I want to say about this before we move on with the technical analysis guys is that simply if you don't like this way that I am handling the market waiting for actual confirmation instead of just yelling something out telling you guys to be super greedy or super fearful at the moment then that is of course completely up to you and maybe even a bigger crypto channel or something is more uh something for you because for me guys I don't want to throw out some analysis to get people to click on the video or whatever. ever. I really do not care about it and this is not the thing that I want to be focused on. I prefer having a much smaller channel being proud of the work that I do and also share the actual analysis that I am using to trade instead of just throwing some BS out there and trying to get as many people to watch it as possible. So either way, if we zoom in to the 1 day time frame, you can see that we are still trading inside this big area of resistance, sitting from 70,000 all the way up to 82,000 in the Bitcoin price.

[00:04:20]So if we end up breaking through this 82K level, the next area above that is already sitting from 85 all the way up to 87K. After 87k, it gets pretty interesting because at that point, if we get a weekly candle close above this $87,000 level, we then actually invalidate this bearish flag pattern. So that means that we would also have to cross off these bearish price targets here. So if you are a long-term bull for Bitcoin here, at least on this weekly time frame, you would want to see a weekly candle close above 87,000. This would be by far the most bullish thing that you could possibly look out for over the next couple of weeks. As should be pretty clear to you guys already, that is of course not my base case, but I do want to have shared that with you because I am trying to be as unbiased as possible.

[00:05:09]I think a great demonstration of this has simply been this ascending trend line. Right? The entire time that we've been trading above this ascending trend line, I've come on the channel here every day and basically said the same thing, which is I am not going to be shorting this bullish momentum so long as we're trading above that ascending trend line. Simple as that. Now, yesterday we were talking about a potential warning signal flashing. I recorded this video around this time right here. And in fact, we did not get this confirmation of the bearish divergence because we didn't see those backto-back red candles. However, today you can see that we actually have confirmed a bearish divergence. So, just a little bit higher up, but this time while I'm recording it, it has actually already confirmed. Now, in the case that you don't know, a bearish divergence points towards us getting a break from all of this bullish price action that we saw before that. So, typically it plays out either in the form of some chompy sideways price action or potentially some bearish momentum. Keep in mind though that every bearish divergence has a point of invalidation. So, for example, if we get another bounce to the upside and from there get candle closes above this previous high at 82.5K, that completely opens the door to more bullish price action for Bitcoin once again. So, keep that in mind, guys, on this 4hour time frame, especially if you get a move above 82.5K.

[00:06:31]Again, completely opposite door to more bullish price action for Bitcoin. But for now, this warning signal has actually confirmed. Currently, this is not very actionable because the situation is still exactly the same. I'm still looking at this ascending trend line basically thinking, look, so long as we're trading above this, we can still just get another bounce and and new higher highs in the short term as well. So, this is still just a bullish market structure as far as I'm concerned. So, this is still just a bullish trend even with this bearish divergence showing up here. Now, if we get a different look where for example, we are breaking down below this 80.8K 8K level. We're breaking down below this ascending trend line and we still have this bearish divergence here. Well, at that point, we could start looking towards some downside liquidity to be grabbed. But that still remains to be seen. Of course, I'm talking about all of this well ahead of time. So, I just wanted to have outlined a couple of scenarios based on if we are first going to see a break of this trend or first are going to see an invalidation of this bearish divergence. So, you know what my thoughts on the market are in both outcomes. Moving on to the Bitcoin ETF flow tables because yesterday we saw another massive inflow into the Bitcoin ETFs of over 450 million flowing in in a single day of trading. Obviously, this is having a massive upwards pressuring effect on the Bitcoin price. Next, taking a look at the Bitcoin liquidity analysis over the past two weeks, you can see that right now most of the liquidity is actually to the downside.

[00:08:03]for example, at around 80k because we have already taken out most of that liquidity to the upside in the short term. Now, keep in mind that this Bitcoin liquidation heat map is dynamic.

[00:08:14]So, if you now get a bunch of shorts piling in, then it could completely be the case that we end up getting more liquidity to the upside and then the price gets attracted to that once again.

[00:08:25]So, it's always good to keep a close eye on the Bitcoin liquidation heat map.

[00:08:29]Either way, if we zoom out a bit further to, for example, this threemonth time frame here, you can actually see something quite similar. Most of the liquidity to the upside that we had here has been taken out, but there still is a bunch of liquidity to the downside that should be taken into consideration.

[00:08:47]Lastly, taking a quick look at gold and silver. So, on gold, we saw a huge pump to the upside today. So, right here, seeing about a four or five% move in a single day. on silver. Even more extreme. We saw about a 7% move today.

[00:09:00]As you guys know, I'm actually long on both. So, I posted that on X earlier today. Yeah, I posted this in the morning, but either way, 26% on gold.

[00:09:08]It's a bit higher now and also a bit higher on silver, but 65% on that long so far. So, awesome to see that the trades are doing well. And this is actually just after breaking out. So, very excited to see how far we can actually push this trade. The next area of resistance that I'm really paying attention to for silver, for example, is sitting from 80 up to 82.5. If we're breaking through 82.5, it's really over, guys. I think we're going to get a crazy move to the upside at that point. But time will tell. Either way, this has been today's market update. Thank you very much for watching once again and I will see you tomorrow in the next