BTC: Elliott Wave Analysis Price Prediction | 1hr & 15m | Bitcoin Forecast & Key Levels

追加: 2026-05-15

[00:00:00]A hi, let's cover my Elliot wave analysis on Bitcoin on the 1 hour and the 15minut time frame. And in this video, I will explain why on the 15-inut time frame, short-term, it is interesting to look for a bit of a move up into areas of resistance, but why in the long term, say the 1 hour time frame, probabilities are higher to look for another leg to the downside. Let me explain. Starting on the 1 hour time frame. So, the bullish scenario would be a larger corrective structure. What you're looking for here is a move down, a move up. Those are preferably finished. And you still look for another move towards the downside, another larger corrective structure here. Now, what you're looking at is a WXY where the first move down here ended the low here before the 0.382 Fibonacci time.

[00:00:46]And the vertical line compares in time the correction versus the move up. Now, if price is correcting this move to the upside, you like to see a corrective structure end at least after the 0.382 Fibonacci time, which is not the case here. So, that is why the bulls ideally like to see a larger corrective structure. Now, this would be a sideways corrective structure. So, we have a zigzag in the W, we have wave X, and then look for a wave Y. We're not looking for a flat A B C because price missed out on touching the 0.9 at 82.5K which is a minimum target for a wave B of a flat structure. Now in a wxy wave X here retrace very deep compared to W move to the 886 Fibonacci which therefore increases the probabilities for a sideways WXY and not a sharp WXY which is a double zigzag ABC X and then ABC lower probabilities because of how deep X went. That means the probabilities are higher for wave Y to be a flat or a triangle because in a sideways WXY where you actually want to see a deep wave X, wave Y cannot be a zigzag if wave W is a zigzag. So the yellow line on my chart shows a flat.

[00:02:02]The pink line shows a triangle. That is what you would be looking for in this case. Which means that the long opportunities come at a later stage on the 1 hour time frame once we can get more confident in looking for a finish structure which is not yet the case.

[00:02:21]Now the bearish scenario is that we have an impulse down here two or B ideally finished look for impulse correction and continuation to the downside in either a three or a C. Let me go to the 15minut time frame. So you can actually see the subwave count that I have going on. So this is your 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 4 5 the lower degree four here a little bit shorter in time compared to two but the minimum target is reached.

[00:02:52]Now your minimum target in this scenario is the low at 79.1K and the bears really need a price to go down here and basically impulse correction and just just fall right that that's ideal. You don't want price to mess around here for a lot longer like in the other scenario because that would increase the probabilities for bullish outcomes.

[00:03:16]The bears are looking for impulse down, correction up, impulse down, correction up, continuation and for price to take out the low because it keeps the door open for a potential impulse and then a wave 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 like lower prices or at least an ABC. But an ABC bottom line is bullish because A B 1 2 3 4 5 C and price moves up. The bias is the same in uh in in these uh in these scenarios which is of course then downside. So impulse correction down. Now the 886 is touched. The 886 is a rare target for a wave two. It would be more common for a B than it is for a wave two. So does decrease the probabilities a bit for a significant bearish outcome here. Uh but it's not an invalidation. The invalidation here is the high. Right? Of course, we use probabilities in the market. So, we are aware. Now, the most bullish case on the 1 hour time frame is that this is the end of a corrective structure down here. And you start with an expanding diagonal to the upside in a wave 1 or a look for a corrective structure and then a move up. Which still means actually on the 1 hour time frame that ideally you have this move down, you get a move up and another leg towards the downside as a corrective structure after a diagonal is preferably a deep corrective structure going to lower levels. Of course, not taking out the low as that's an invalidation.

[00:04:34]However, the probabilities are low for this scenario for two reasons. Number one, an expanding diagonal is a very rare structure. lowers the probabilities automatically. And second, if this is a finished structure, the low ended or was made sorry before the 0.32 Fibonacci time as explained earlier and that is not preferred. So let's then have a look at the 15minut time frame. So on the 15minut time frame, maybe actually a bit lower go to the 5m minute time frame. So what you can see here is a sharp move to the downside followed by quite a large sideways range at the moment. Have a look at this move towards the downside.

[00:05:15]Can this range still be a wave four matching for example a two here for potentially then 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 4 and five. Well, we take a Fibonacci time. We compare wave two against the current range. And you can see that even this high here was made after a sixth time.

[00:05:33]let alone what's happening over here at the moment. Like this is a very large structure or a four compared to a tiny two. So preferably this is a finished move to the downside, a finished impulse in that 1 2 3 4 fiveway structure. But if this is a finished structure, then you would like to see the 0.382 touch, which is a minimum retracement target after an impulse. 82.2 82.3K is a minimum target. It can go higher.

[00:06:02]That's absolutely fine. That depends on the structure, right? Is it motive? Is it corrective? We'll have to wait and see, right? Motive, potentially corrective can be many different structures, but nonetheless, the bias locally on the 15 or 5 minute time frame at the moment here would be towards seeing that 382 touched at some stage.

[00:06:23]Which is why at the beginning of the video, I explained that well shortterm, it's interesting to look for a move towards the upside to see at least a 382 touched. But on the 1 hour time frame, it is difficult to end something here.

[00:06:37]And therefore, the bias on the 1 hour is actually in the opposite direction.

[00:06:41]You're looking for a larger range or downside. And even in a larger range, you're still looking for another leg down. Which is why areas of resistance are so interesting. And I'll show them uh in a little bit. So this is the 15minut time frame. Now then, let's have a look at the levels. And for the levels, I'll have to go to my Coinbase chart. Uh the reason I showed my analysis on the Binance chart is because Coinbase had a up down here. Uh missing price action. So these are the areas of support and resistance. Price moving down into the daily naked point of control at 80.6K acting as an area of support as you can see. Then we have some areas of resistance to the upside.

[00:07:18]So the 1 hour order block 812 814. Then the range point of control 815. And well you can see on the chart here what I And if I zoom out a little bit, you can see the areas of support of course as well.

[00:07:31]Mind you that this box here 791 793 is already touched on other charts like the Binance chart because we have this information. Uh so this is price action.

[00:07:42]This line here is the exact price action that appeared on other charts but not on Coinbase which is why I just keep it on my chart here. Uh so this area of support is actually not really interesting anymore. But yeah, anyway, this is what I have going on. So, feel free to copy if you like to. Then we get to the news. So, if we look at the news, then this week we have some news today, Monday the 11th, Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. With regards to news volatility, I would expect most on Tuesday, and on Wednesday, the times here are 2:30 Central European time on both days. So be aware that volatility might increase. Central European time zone by the way uh Monday and Friday or Thursday. Monday or Thursday I don't really expect too much news related volatility to what I see here uh in the uh in the calendar and then we get to the conclusion.

[00:08:38]So the conclusion is on the 15-minut time frame that we would like to see a move to the 0.382 as explained and on the 1 hour time frame it is at the moment quite difficult to end something uh at least for the bulls. So the bulls would like to see a larger corrective structure which still includes looking for another leg towards the downside as you are looking for a three-wave corrective structure. Uh and at the moment we would not be able to count a nice three-wave corrective structure here. Right? So you would still expect a move to the downside minimum a larger range, right? So a larger range would be this. And the move down is one or a, two or B, three or C, which means that locally on a low time frame, sure the longs are interesting looking for the 3A2. But on a 1 hour time frame, shorts would be more favorable compared to longs. Till the moment, we can be more confident in looking at a potentially finished or close to finished corrective structure for the bulls. Because of course, if price just dumps and it moves into a wave through to the downside, well, it's going to be a it's going to take a while for for uh interesting setups towards the uh towards the upside. So, yeah, this is at the moment what's going on. Thanks for watching.

[00:09:49]Hopefully, this video was helpful or valuable to you. On the left, you see a video on the simplest way to use trade Elliot waves without even counting. And on the right is the Elliot wave educational playlist to help you understand more about Elliot waves.

[00:10:01]Thanks for watching and subscribing, and I hope to see you at the next one.

[00:10:04]Bye-bye.