Markets Are Lying — Here’s What’s Really Happening

Añadido: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]Good morning everyone. Welcome to join the dots. Recording this Wednesday, but it'll probably come to you Friday. Um, big issues, so not time dependent. First of all, Japanese inflation, and this goes back to our XRP vision of what might happen if the Japanese carry trade unwinds, which I think it is. Slowly but surely, it's starting. Japanese inflation rate is 2.8 if you strip out government subsidies. So the government's still trying to interfere in the proper inflation statistics, but if you strip them out, you're 2.8% and that is up from 2.5 last month. That's a huge rise in one month, up.3.

[00:00:42]Okay, so that's very important. Um, and the 2.8% is what the JGB rate is at the moment, the 10-year, and that's the highest since 1996, which I think was building up to the Asian crisis. Um, bank rates in Japan, the central bank rate just 3/4 of a percent. So, they're way way way behind the curve. The market is showing them what the truth is. The bank doesn't want to know central bank, so it has to go up. Uh, number two, and this is link one, Goldman's come out with a gold piece saying that the statistics are undercutting what's actually happening.

[00:01:22]Oh, shock, horror. government's not telling the people the truth. I can't believe it. Can you? So, what they're showing is that there are falling inventories in London which do not tie up with the official statistics.

[00:01:39]Sovereign transactions taking place and not recorded. Ah, governments lying to the people which seems to be a pattern, doesn't it? Something developing here.

[00:01:53]So, and that confirms what I sent to you uh recently on two links. One from Mario of Mano 64 and one from Tyler Kenny of ITM Trading. Both said the same thing.

[00:02:04]More gold is going out than the official statistics tell you. What good is AI?

[00:02:11]If everyone's lying, no good at all because it picks up the official statistics.

[00:02:17]Okay.

[00:02:19]um they now expect Goldman's now expect 60 tons per month to be bought by central banks um because they just see more diversification and why wouldn't you if you were a central bank why would you not sell some of your US treasuries which are losing value daily and inflation looks like it's going higher so why would you hold on to fixed interest stocks and they're switching it to gold it's not difficult is it and of course as some of them do it then more of them want to follow because they don't want to be left out. They don't want to look silly and they will be. Look at the Bank of England. Looks very silly. Um and yet the Bank of England, as I said to you, is seeing those statistics. It knows what gold is going out. It might print statistics that are lies, but it knows what true gold is going out. And yet, it's still holding a measly couple of hundred tons of gold. Do you remember Gordon Brown sold half of it? Stupid man. Gordon the We'll never forget that. Um, so central banks and private investors are stocking up.

[00:03:23]Goldman's year end target now is 5,400.

[00:03:27]Uh, JPM is saying 6,000. JPM's average has been brought down a little bit from they they brought down the average for the year, but they're still sticking at 6,000. Now, remember, one thing I've learned in life is that banks never ever estimate the right figure. They always underestimate because they cannot be seen to be an outlier. They cannot be seen to be wrong when everyone's right.

[00:03:53]So they tend to stick their estimates pretty close together and like subprime a 50 billion problem.

[00:04:00]No. 3.4 trillion 68 times. Well done banks. Um and a side issue. The Royal Mint are saying now that they've got sales of two to one. So they are buying back some silver from people and gold from people. those who bought at the top probably and sold at the bottom because they're people who can't make a decision until it's so obvious in their face that it's the wrong time to buy. Uh that happens a lot. Um but their sales are still running at 2:1.

[00:04:25]Right. I've got two pieces here from Greg Manorino which if I can fire up my phone, I would like to just read to you the headlines because I think they're both very relevant.

[00:04:38]Here's the first one. This is a culling.

[00:04:43]Twothirds of Americans are cutting back.

[00:04:46]Now, you have to think this through.

[00:04:48]Just because it's Americans I'm talking about does not mean it's happening only in America. It means it's happening in any similar economy. Probably Australia, Canada, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, all those countries that make up eight of the top nine economies in the world other than India. And India's cutting back anyway because we know they've got their own problems with the currency. So what we got here? Lions.

[00:05:12]When twothirds of Americans are cutting back because of rising prices, that means the system is forcing households to choose what survives in their budget and what gets eliminated.

[00:05:26]Today, conference board data, so this is not Greg making it up. It's not an opinion. Conference board data says that twothirds of consumers are cutting back due to rising prices with many buying fewer items and delaying expensive purchases. Think of what that does. Join the dots. Think of what it does to the retailers, to the distributors, to the manufacturers, to the suppliers. The whole chain slows down, okay? As people buy less. This is how an economic culling works. And meanwhile, the stock market floats near new highs while Main Street is forced to shrink its life. The disconnect between Main Street and Wall Street.

[00:06:12]It It's just like, well, it's like 208 but on steroids. And I keep saying that, don't I? So, that's the first piece from Greg. Let's see if we can find his second piece. As you know, they're they're behind pay walls, so I'm helping you here to see things you wouldn't otherwise see. lions across the board.

[00:06:31]Debt balances, delinquencies, affordability, bankruptcy, foreclosures, household sentiment have now exceeded that of the convid. Greg calls it convid because like most people who think he sees it as a complete scam have now exceeded that of the convid era for the American middle class. And it's about to get even worse. The American household is pinned down. Debt balances are at record levels. Delinquencies are skyrocketing.

[00:07:04]Bankruptcies are rising. Foreclosures are rising. The cost of food, basic necessities, the overall cost of living, energy, shelter, insurance, rising household debt are crushing the middle class even harder. And the stock market is at record highs. So they're similar in their context, but you need to hear it maybe 20 times before you really think about it seriously in this world because everything you hear is just so superficial. And you need to really apply some critical thinking to what this means. As I've said so many times, fuel, food, shelter. That's what the poor or the bottom twothirds of society, as these statistics tell us from the conference board, the bottom twothirds of society are struggling. They're struggling. So, they're going to spend less. I mean, they spend less, less is sold. And if less is sold, more business is shut. Shops, distributors, suppliers, the whole chain. It backs up. Okay.

[00:08:10]Uh, link to what have I got? Oh, yes, the AI bubble. Oh, we like the AI bubble, don't we? Let's have a look at the AI bubble. Now, I'm going to ask Craig to link that chart again. Do you remember we showed you a chart that Bloomberg came up a very, very helpful chart which showed all the interdeing between all the uh AI companies, Mega, Google, all that lot. All right.

[00:08:31]Everyone intertwining, everyone intering. Now what we hear is that some of the big tech companies are allegedly paying themselves within this loop.

[00:08:44]So that this is very serious and I'm going to link this number two. Okay. Um it's very serious because what it does that the the circular transfer of payments hide what's really happening in cash flows. But what the AI what the big tech companies are doing is allegedly taking money out the system. So your your new startups, your founders who are involved in this cycle are going to get wiped out just like Global Crossing did in the uh in 2000. Global Crossing then was a massive company. Everyone said it was the best company in the world. It was going to do so much and it ended up bankrupt. Um just the way it is, just the way things work. So, private credit defaults. The chart that Craig has put up there is so interesting to have a look at. And here we have a piece called rising private credit defaults are testing banks and insurers. Now, this is across the globe. This is a Forbes piece. So, it's not a it's not a some blogger. It's Forbes.

[00:09:49]And it shows you that the whole system is hiding a structural flaw.

[00:09:57]Okay. So yet again we come to people hiding things. Governments are hiding gold sales. Governments are hiding gold transfers.

[00:10:08]Japanese government is hiding inflation in subsidies. And here we have a classic example of how big companies are hiding the truth while they all do intertwined deals that end up causing real problems for everyone. For everyone because these private credit defaults are enormous. They're going to be absolutely gobsmacking. The article talks about two trillion. It's going to be a lot more than that. It's going to be a lot more. All right. Always remember they always underestimate a problem and they always overestimate a good thing. Just basic life. All right.

[00:10:52]So, I'd like you to look at those two pieces. Um, I think we got private credit defaults. Have we got something else? The last piece, link of the day.

[00:11:05]This is on the canalon effect. and the Austrians saw it coming. It's a great piece. It's a great piece. And what it talks about is the fundamentals. And if I read out this se seventh paragraph of this piece, let me find it. Right now, this is really joining some powerful dots. This is joining the economic crash and the pandemic because you have to join these dots to understand why the world is in such a precarious position.

[00:11:38]The pandemic public health apparatus was an experiment. It was an experiment.

[00:11:43]They never had it before, have they? So, it had to be an experiment run at planetary scale in central planning under extreme information gaps. So, we we have massive information gaps. The Chinese wouldn't even tell us the origin. The the Chinese would not release the original sequence to the WHO and still haven't released it six years later.

[00:12:07]Some people love the Chinese. I don't hate them. I just see what they do. And they do not comply with any rules while moaning that no one else complies with any rules. And that's what they do all the time. And they did it no more than in the pandemic. They've never released the original sequence.

[00:12:26]And they allowed viral videos to go out which caused terror in the West, which then of course meant the West politicians overreacted. So what do we see here? The pandemic public health experiment was an experiment run at planetary scale in central planning under extreme information gaps. There were massive gaps in information. One sizefits all orders. And that was the thing that was totally wrong, wasn't it?

[00:12:50]When you go to a doctor, he looks at you and he looks at your condition and then he applies the right diagnosis and maybe medicine. But if everyone gets the same, how can it be right? How can a How can you give an 83y old man the same amount of vaccine as you give a six-month old baby? It makes no sense. None. You just have to think. So, what else does this be say? One sizefits-all orders, close every school, mask everyone, require vaccination at the price of normal life were dropped on populations whose actual situations varied enormously.

[00:13:29]The small business owner who knew his shop could operate safely. The parent who knew her child could not take more isolation mentally could not take more isolation. The local doctor who knew her elderly patients specific risks. The rural county whose epidemiology looked nothing like a dense cities. Each held knowledge the central planners did not have and could not gather. Now, please read this piece. It's not all about the pandemic. It's all about economics.

[00:14:00]But that's why we join the dots because the dots all join.

[00:14:05]Okay? So, please read this link of the day. All right. I'll link it to you.

[00:14:10]It's called the Austrians saw it coming.

[00:14:15]Okay? Thank you very much for watching Join the Dots. I hope you've enjoyed the show. I haven't got my mug. Oh goodness.

[00:14:21]Cheers from Mike, Ann, and Craig.