Builder CEOs Just Revealed What DFW Buyers Need to Know Before Buying New Construction

追加: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]A couple weeks ago, 15 CEOs from the largest publicly held builders in America got in front of their investors and in front of Wall Street and all kind of said the same thing. They're the same handful of things, you know, big CEO style speak. The problem is what they said to the investors and what their salespeople are saying in their models are two totally contradictory things.

[00:00:21]So, what I want to do is I want to walk you through these 15 quotes. I I read through all of them and I've got some notes and some thoughts on what they're saying. So, what these CEOs are saying privately to their shareholders and behind closed doors might be the closest thing that I can give you to a cheat code when it comes to figuring out how to buy a new home here in DFW. So, if we haven't met before, my name is Zach. My team and I, we sell exclusively new construction real estate here in DFW.

[00:00:44]So, if you have questions, you can always reach out to us. We're here to help any way that we can. So, before I get into this though, I need you to understand the typical experience walking into a sales office with with a lot of builders. It's it's their salespeople. I mean, they're they're trained sales people, right? So, they are, "Oh, hey, this is this is exclusive. We only have two lots left.

[00:01:01]You know, our incentive is going to end this weekend. We're trying to do everything we can. We don't know. You know, prices may go up." And I want to tell you, there's probably a little bit of truth to that because that's kind of what they're being told, right? And truthfully, they don't know. They don't they don't know, hey, is is their lending incentive going to change on Monday? Honestly, they're they're just kind of stuck in the middle selling the product that they have in front of them, right? But to be honest, the conversation that we hear in sales offices versus what the people that are saying that own these sales offices in boardrooms are kind of telling two completely different stories. Now, I will tell you before we get into the article, this is not an endorsement of any of these 15 CEOs. There's some of these builders I love doing business with. There's some of them that I wouldn't touch at all. And if you've been around my content, you know those ones, and I'm probably going to point that out to you as we go. This is also doesn't include some of the better privately held builders, right? or or smaller builders, more boutique builders. Now, this also doesn't mean that every builder is terrible and that they're out to get you. But I do think this is important to note when we see 15 CEOs of the largest home builders in America start talking and they start saying things. I think it's important to take note of to what they're saying. So, like I'm going to let you we're going to kind of work through it together and then I've got a couple things that I've picked out that I think could probably help you if you're on your home buying journey. Let me pull up the uh article.

[00:02:15]Here we go. 15 public CEOs are saying about the 2026 housing market. Here we go. Housing in 2025 never quite met expectations. We know that in large part due to weak consumer confidence and persistent economic uncertainty, it was kind of a year that fell flat. Many of the builders, many practices that have become employed in the last year, including sales incentives and mortgage rate buys, have become commonplace. I've been telling you guys about this for a while. Some of the best deals that we'll find in homes are with builders because they're doing their rate buy downs, they're doing their closing costs, all of those things. And they've become fairly common place regardless of the build. They all kind of structure them a little bit differently, but they all know that they kind of have to do this, right? So, public earning calls. Here's what they're saying their outlook is for 2026. So, let's just kind of start at the top. So, Dr. Horton, one of America's largest home builder. He says, "We've increased our sales incentives during the first quarter, and we expect incentives to remain elevated in fiscal year 2026 with the level dependent on demand, changes in mortgage interest rates, and overall market conditions.

[00:03:07]Our experienced teams, yada yada yada, are doing great at pricing homes at affordable price points for key components of our operating platform, and to support our ability to aggregate market shares. Golly guys, why why do we speak? So, let's just make it simple. Uh, we recognize the current volatility and uncertainty in this economic condition and will continue to adjust as market conditions in a disciplined manner enhance the long-term value of our company. So, let me give you the really, really simple version of what he just said. He just said, "We're going to keep using our incentives. We're going to keep putting money in places to sell homes so that we can, you know, sell homes, right? So, we're going to spend money where we need to spend money."

[00:03:43]there is a line item in their budget specifically for buying your business.

[00:03:48]This isn't generosity. This is just their quarterly numbers that they have to hit. They know they have to, you know, churn so many houses a quarter in every different market, right? So, they're not, you know, they're going to give you a good deal. They're going to give you interest rates. They're going to give you price reductions. They're going to give you closing costs. And they're budgeting to do so. And if one of the largest home builders in America is budgeting to do that, don't you think almost everybody else is probably taking note and doing the same thing? Again, not generosity. This is them specifically buying business. All right, that was Horton. All right, let's go uh to Stuart Miller. He is the uh executive chairman and co-CEO of LAR, another large home builder. Here's what he says.

[00:04:25]Uh while in our first quarter margins and our bottom line continued to reflect a forwardability driven realities of the current housing market, we also saw continued improvement in all facets of underlying cost structure that has set us on a course to stabilize and improve margins as we continue to produce volume and meet market at affordability. Even with the current challenges, we feel optimistic about our position in strategic markets and the progress made in reshaping our business for current conditions. We are adapting to market conditions and not waiting on the market to bounce back. I'm going to give you Oh, here's what he said. Maintaining sales volume required additional incentives to avoid building excess inventory. He also said, and I'm just going to quote it, "We saw continuous improvements in all facets of our underlying cost structure that has set us on a course to stabilize and improve our margins." I translate that as they're cutting where they can cut. And you know, in in a lot of markets here in DFW, they don't spray and texture garages. We've seen some houses they don't even put garage door openers in or or sprinkler systems or you know whatever. And again, I told you at the beginning of this video, this is not an endorsement of them. In this one in particular, it is quite the contrary.

[00:05:35]They are super concerned about their margins. They are super concerned about the pace that they need to sell houses.

[00:05:40]And you're part of that. So, they're doing whatever they can to uh again, and I quote, stabilize our underlying cost structure and improve margins as we continue to produce the volume and meet market affordability. Cool. Love it.

[00:05:57]Sense my sarcasm. All right, let's go to PY. PY, another big national builder.

[00:06:00]Look back on 2025. It was a good year.

[00:06:02]You heard repeatedly demand was high was highly variable as consumers responded initially to movements and interest rates. All that being said, monthly absorption, so how much did we sell month over month? Rates follow typical seasonal patterns throughout the year.

[00:06:14]Looking forward to 2026, we are looking for more improved affordability as mortgage rates are almost a full percent lower than a year ago. Uh we're close.

[00:06:22]We're not we're not at full percent lower. Uh full percent and then new home prices have reset while consumers have benefited a more upwards of 4% a more financially capable consumer combination with improving affordability. Pictures puts this industry in a much better position heading into 2026. given the dynamics, I think consumer confidence will be a critical component to determining just how strong buyer demand is in months to come. That's an interesting take. I think I think he's a little honestly I think he's a little over optimistic. You know, they they demand softened. Like that was just kind of what it was. Even in a market like DFW where we have tons of people moving in, transaction numbers were down. I mean, we sold a lot of business. People still bought a lot of homes, but from like yearover-year, I think people felt like transaction numbers were down. So, they need to sell homes. This is kind of the the theme of this whole video, right? The builders need to sell homes to get things off their balance sheet.

[00:07:12]They need the sales experience. Soft demand, like, you know, things that might not have been negotiable two years ago, they're probably back on the table for you to negotiate. So, I think he's got a positive outlook there, but we'll see what happens with that. All right, let's keep going. Meritage, we don't know what what how this spring season will unfold, but we're improve we are encouraged by improved conditions as we look to 2026 and beyond. Meredith has chosen to be a top five builder focused on spec building with moveinready inventory, streamlined operations, a diverse geographic footprint, and a differentiated ability to compete against retail given our 60-day close ready guarantee and our realtor engagement. So, Meritage a couple years ago switched to an inventoryonly models.

[00:07:49]Like, you can't go to Meritage anymore and be like, "Hey, we want to buy a home and start at dirt and take six months and go through all of those things."

[00:07:56]Like, they're not going to let you do that. They have streamlined their process and they have in a lot of ways, hey, we have homes that we can close like several of the same footprint in any neighborhood in 60 days or less. So, they're trying to make a streamlined process which also means they streamline their incentives. They like all of their homes internally, you know, same color palettes, different floor plans, same color palette. So, it's basically, you know, as best as they can, copy and paste to try and give people quick movein options where they can. They tend to be hyper aggressive on their incentives from their lending side, but it also means they're pretty straightforward on their pricing in terms of how they negotiate deals.

[00:08:31]You've got a little bit of margin here and there, but they're not going to you're not going to wheel and deal with them, so to speak. I mean, a little bit, like I said, but but they're trying to be as straightforward as they can to make it like, hey, this is what we do. I don't want to call them I don't want to call them CarMax, but if you've ever bought a cart at CarMax, it kind of in a way can get that. It's like, hey, we want to give straightforward pricing. We want this. We're going to do this. We're going to do this. We're going to do this. We're going to include washer, dryer, fridge, and most of most, if not all of our homes. And we're just trying to make it as straightforward as we can to to move units. All right. Next one.

[00:08:57]KB. We remain optimistic and we believe favorable demographics will be a key driving support. Consumers demonstrate their interest in buying homes reflected in our website visits. We produce 2400 net orders in the fourth quarter, maintaining a consistent approach to pricing by offering transparent and affordable pricings rather than inflated pricing mac masked by heavy incentives.

[00:09:16]Interesting. This remains the foundation of our company competitive position as it allows us to advertise compelling pricing directly on our website. It's also how we build trust with consumers.

[00:09:24]Though KB is coming out and saying, "Hey, you know what? We're not going to inflate our prices to cover the cost of what we're giving you in incentive." So, it would be interesting to see kind of how that dynamic plays out. All right, Taylor Morrison. They believe affordability improved over the last year alongside lower interest rates, wage growth, and price disparity. Are you sure? Did did you did you live in the real world? I believe consumer confidence in the broader economic and political outlook will further demand recovery. That said, we are cautiously encouraged by the sales success we achieved in 2025 and early momentum we have going into 2026. We expect to accelerate the number of communities in 2026 from 2025 with well over 100 new communities planned. Interesting.

[00:10:01]Including 20 Epanade outlets. I don't know what that is. We have that in our market or not. We are already supported by deep interest list. So they're saying, "Hey, we're expecting a boom and we're positioning ourselves for growth and opportunity." Listen, I am all for these builders positioning for growth, especially in in our market like DFW.

[00:10:17]What what that's going to mean in the long term, I don't know, but they're positioning for that. So, interesting that they would say that. And then Century Communities would basically say the same thing. He says, given our land, the land spread we have, we've been able to grow our deliveries by 10% annually in 2026 and 2027 based on what we're just sitting on in lots. That said, we will remain disciplined if slower market conditions persist and will not look to grow either our lot pipeline or the deliveries for the sake of growth alone as our more traditional option strategy gives us significant flexibility in adjusting the timing and terms land takedowns given the limited capital we have at risk. So they are trying to take over land positions because they understand that land is a finite resource but they're also trying to say hey you know what if we need to pull back we'll pull back. So they're optimistic about growth. Okay. All right. Toll Brothers. All right. So Toll Brothers is mostly in I mean they're big nationally but in our market they're more of the higherend builder. So realistically in North Texas you're not finding Toll Brothers under you know probably 600,000 and and upwards of that. So I look at that from the lens of this. I know plenty of other markets they might have a little bit more of an affordable price point but DFW 600 is about their starting point. So brothers says we've seen an increase in overall traffic. Our strategy of balancing price and paste work well in our quarter. Our overall incentive remained flat compared to the fourth quarter at look at that 8% of sales price. So if you're wanting a math number that you can use on average of what you can expect in incentive dollars, 8%. He literally said it right there. We were using 8% of sales price for the third consecutive quarter that our incentives remain flat on a percentage basis. So paying attention like on average. So if we just said, hey, we're buying a a you know, let's say we're going getting a $450,000 home.

[00:11:55]Now, that's not Toll Brothers price here in North Texas, but $450 and you're getting 008. So, you're getting $36,000.

[00:12:01]When you hear them start talking about rate buy downs and closing costs and 4.99 on average, that's about what they're spending depending on what the market is and where the rates are moving. So, for him to put a number on it is is interesting. We are benefiting from a healthy mix of build to order and spec homes in our inventory. Balancing higher here's another key. Balancing the higher margin in our build to order business with our lower margin but faster returns in spec business.

[00:12:24]translation. I've told you guys this before. Builders make more money when they're building for you. Specifically, when they're building inventory, they're making less margin. He literally said that balancing our higher margins, we are making more money in our build for you business and lower margins, but we're turning them quickly. We're we're aggregating volume. We have a higher turn rate in our inventory. Okay, we got we got a handful more. We're getting there. Am I Let me give you the points on this one. We control approximately 50,000 single family lots in the United States. We are down 2,000 lots from a year ago and this equates to roughly a 5 to six year supply. So they're planning for the long haul what they're going to build. More importantly, 49% of our lots are controlled pursuant to an option contract which gives us flexibility to react to changes in demand and individual market conditions. Let me give you the English on that. So developers bring in builders and they say, "Hey, we're developing, you know, this neighborhood. It's going to be this many homes. It's going to be this many price points." And then they come in with the option to buy in these neighborhoods. And so MI is saying, "Hey, we hold a lot of option contracts." So, if the market turns, we could easily cut and get out and and move on to something different. So, despite current challenging conditions, we feel very good about our business and remain very confident in the long-term fundamentals of the industry as we are well positioned to begin 2026. All right. Dream Home Finders or Dream Finders Homes. We continually demonstrate the resiliency of our business as well as perseverance as 2026. We remain focused on further scaling. Cool. Khov, this one I think is is interesting as as we we work our way down. Our current approach m emphasizes maintaining steady sales and clearing older low margin lots and older QMI. So older inventory looking ahead as we look to open new communities where these incentive costs are already factored in during our land acquisition. So they know for the long term they're going to be spending money on incentives and they're trying to factor that in to their land cost. But look at the next part. We anticipate stronger gross margins provided the market doesn't require further increase in incentives.

[00:14:14]So, they're factoring it in to how they're buying their land and they're thinking long-term they're actually going to make more money. Take that for what it's worth. As long as we don't need more incentives based on our recent sales, we don't anticipate that to happen. So, Khov, especially here in DFW, has looked at re-evaluating their portfolio and neighborhoods that they were in, you know, last year and you're like, oh, they had a ton of lots and they were going to stay there. They got out and then they said, hey, you know what? We're going to look at where we can go. So, translation to me, this is the way I understand this as and I read this. We're not going to be building in the 200, 300, 400 price point neighborhoods. We're going to go 400 and north because we know that we can bake our incentives in with our lot cost and all those things and we can increase our margin. So, I think when we when and I could be wrong, um, but I've talked to the the Kahhoff people here in DFW, I think they're going to get out of the they're you're not going to see Khof Nan in DFW under probably that 375 to 400 in any market anywhere here in DFW. I could be wrong, but I think that's what they're kind of saying here with this one. All right, we got uh one, two, we got a we got a handful more. We got We got three more. We're almost done, guys.

[00:15:18]You stuck around. And I'm just going to tell you, if you're reading this and you're like, I don't even know where to start or where to begin before I get to the last three. Just want to tell you we're here to help. Our team, we we represent people in all parts of DFW, at all price points, 300,000 to a million plus on new builds. And if I can answer any questions for you and we can walk you through that process and support you and make sure that you get the best deal possible to make sure that you're not buying some of these crazy things that some of these builders have for you, we would love to have a conversation with you. Zoom link is down below or send me an email. However, we can help. Want to do that for you. All right, that's my spiel. Let's go. We got three more.

[00:15:49]Let's go to LGI. We continue to write contracts in a market where many buyers need additional time. Ooh, to save for a down payment to strengthen their credit or finalize the sale of an existing home. As a result, the time between contract and close remains extended, and we expect this to persist. So, no longer are we just moving homes quickly. Our long-term outlook for the housing market remains positive. The supply demand imbalances, favorable demographic trends and essential need to for attainable home ownership reinforce the strength of our strategy. Moving 26 with resilience and focus, and we're going to do all the same things we've continued to do. Uh, that one LGI, they are already budgeting. Builders are budgeting for your contingencies. They're budgeting for the extended timeline, which means you might have a little bit more flexibility than they let on. Now, are they going to take a contingency on a completed inventory home that needs to close in 30 days and you don't have your home on the market? Probably not. But if you were going to go through the full build process and need to sell a home in order to get into that home, would they look at that contingency? They might.

[00:16:48]So, that's something to consider. All right, Bezer. Our January sales pace was in was in line with prior years after eight quarters of year-over-year compression. We have tangible catalysts in place that will drive higher home building margins in the back half of the year. And we're managing our balance sheets and land spin to accelerate highly accredited share repurchases. If you've been watching the stock market after this um vid, so beer stock just jumped like 20%. Because somebody I heard I think it was Dreamfinder made an offer to buy Beaser. So we'll see what kind of happens with that. So they're telling their stockholders we're going to make more money. We have we are again similar to LAR. Maybe they're cutting. I don't know. Uh are they working on I know Beaser is one of the ones that they shop a ton of different lenders and it makes the lending process a little bit convoluted and a little bit complicated and so they're kind of always trying to figure out best and it's a race in some ways to the bottom and then you don't get the right information and then you know loans are wrong or disclosures are wrong and it's a whatever. But they're just saying, "Hey, we have tangible catalysts in place to drive higher home building margins in the back half of the year, and we're managing our balance sheet on sales. We're not just hoping market conditions continue to improve.

[00:17:56]We're also benefiting from new branding and lead generation efforts we launched last fall. The focus of enjoying the great outdoors message is more comfortable and healthier homes. Yeah.

[00:18:04]So, they have very affordable. They're they're let's be honest, a lot of new builds at this point are highly energy efficient. We are so uh partners in building or I'm sorry, Green Brick Partners, Green Brick is uh trophy. They are exploded here in DFW specifically.

[00:18:18]We are laser focused on maintaining investment grade balance sheet to support our targeted expansion in high volume markets. We remain focused on growing our business, particularly the Trophy brand. Trophy's growth in Dallas, Fort Worth, and Austin combined with our first community in Houston during the spring selling season presents significant opportunities for sustained growth over the next few years. Yeah, Trophy. Nobody had heard of them five or six years ago. And now they're probably 50 communities deep here in DFW. Similar to Maritage, they're going to sell inventory only, a very modern looking home, energy efficient. In my opinion, to be honest, great opportunity potentially for a first-time home buyer.

[00:18:49]Budget under about 450. Anything above that, I think there are plenty of other things that compete just for better quality for what your spend is, but you know, probably under 450, solid option, but they're growing and expanding rapidly in DFW. All right, last one.

[00:19:02]Smith and Douglas. They are not in DFW.

[00:19:04]So to my knowledge, we've never done business with them in DFW, but long-term goal is to continue to grow volume and gain market share as target investment.

[00:19:11]We know that our path to higher volumes will not be linear, but instead reflect the natural es and flows. Blah blah blah. Our focus remains on building affordable homes and markets experiencing strong population growth and job creation. Our value proposition includes the level of personalizations that many builders do not offer at our price point, combined with a build time that few competitors can match.

[00:19:29]Translation: Don't let them go too fast.

[00:19:31]Hire a home inspector. Okay, so you made it all the way through my thoughts on we read through all of those quotes. Want to give you a couple of more insight information. Again, a little bit longer of a video. Hopefully, you've kind of stuck around on this one. But again, like I said earlier, incentives are a budget item. They're not a gift. They're not a generosity thing. So, yes, be grateful for them. Be excited for them, but ask for a little bit more within reason. And now, a lot of builders think like, "Zack, quit telling people to ask us for more." Within reason. Now, you have to fall within the lending guidelines and we have to understand the cost of money and we have to understand how they have these things margin but margin and built-in budgeted. Well, like the Toll Brothers CEO said, "Hey, we're spending about 8% per deal on incentive." So, factor in that number.

[00:20:14]Start asking for more money. Allocate it and use it the right way to help build out your deal. And if you you're curious on how to do that, we have tons of videos you can go check them out on how to structure your incentives to get the maximum out of the dollar. Uh number number two, learn their calendars. you know, which which ones are uh January to December, which ones closed their books in September, the you know, how they're c and that's just like that just comes with time and and looking and researching. This would be the one thing where I would also say like, hey, you're not limited to these public builders, right? Or you're not limited to the big public builders. Do you have options in the market? So, you know, in Texas, we have options like Perry, we have Highland, which we love both of them.

[00:20:51]Pace setters, another great option.

[00:20:52]Shane just came on the market in here.

[00:20:54]Chesmar, like there are so many options.

[00:20:56]Like, you don't have to be limited. But I again I would say looking at these Publix these have got to be somewhat of the canary and the coal mine of like hey here's what we see happening and as they move all of the other players behind them are going to move kind of asynchronous to that just because they have to and that's kind of what the market demands right I would say number whatever this is three we want to call bluffs on incentives expiring is there sometimes when they do expire yes is there sometimes when rate promos run out because they've already pre-spent the money and it has a deadline on it Yes.

[00:21:27]Is there times when it's like, "Oh, hey, it's first come, first serve and we're this is the money we're working with in DFW and until we buy more." Yes. Those are all true. But it's honestly, it's a pace management tactic, right? Maybe it expires, maybe they extend it. I don't know. But if you I will tell you, if you find a good deal and you find a home you like, you need to jump on it because it might get better, it might get worse. I know that's not helpful one way or another, but what we're seeing is they're all budgeting to continue to do something to help buyers with an understanding that affordability is a thing. Number four, we need to negotiate price and incentives, not one or the other. I think you can push for both within reason. Now, are we taking the $400,000 house and making it a $250,000 house? We are not. Are we taking the $400,000 house and making it like 380, 385 with incentives depending on the home, whether it's been sitting, whether it's, you know, what the rate is in that neighborhood, how quickly they're selling. There's so many factors that go into it. This is why I can't just give you like a blanket. Hey, do this, do this, and then this will happen. This is where it's like, hey, you need somebody in your corner that understands builders, that understands how like to ask these questions and make these things move. That's why we're here to help. So, negotiate on both of them.

[00:22:32]Please, please get a home inspection. I don't care who built the home, but we saw, you know, the LAR quote. Hey, we're we are building out our margins. We're cutting corners. You know, they didn't say he didn't say he's cutting corners.

[00:22:42]My words, not his. We're we're doing everything we can to increase our margins, to increase our efficiency, to what does it mean? We're building faster. We're checking less. You know, do that. And then lastly, walk in knowing that they need you to close the home, right? Like especially the Publix, like you're you're a number on the a spreadsheet and it's a give and take and it's a balance. Like you're yes, it is a great opportunity for you to get to buy a home, but they need you kind of just as much as you need them, especially in certain markets here in DFW. Want to finish with this thought. Builders are not the enemy. There are plenty of builders that build really, really good quality homes that do right by the consumer, that take care of their customers, that go above and beyond, but they are in this to make money just like everybody else. They have professional salespeople trained create urgency and manage your perception of leverage. But guys, just know that like there there's good ones out there and you need somebody in your corner to help with that. So, this is my plea to you. If you're buying here in DFW, you're buying a new home and we can help you. I'd love to do that for you. If you're again, if you're curious on how to negotiate with the builders or if you're curious how to spend their money, like we've got a couple videos. I'm actually going to put this one right here. We This is This one we helped a buyer save over $100,000 and I walk you through the whole thing on how we did it. I want you to go check it out and I hope this is helpful and we'll see you guys in our next video. Bye for now.