Paul Reacts to Uber, Disney, Novo, and Dash Stock Earnings

追加: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Guys, welcome to Everything Money Plus.

[00:00:01]We're here to go over four companies today that reported three this morning, one reports after hours. First one is Uber. Up 8.73% today, but they missed on revenue. They reported 13.2 billion in revenue versus 13.26, but beat on profit 72 cents versus 70 cents expected. Here are some interesting things.

[00:00:24]Gross bookings grew 21% year-over-year.

[00:00:27]non-GAAP earnings per share increased 44% year-over-year. They bought back $3 billion in shares, which remember, we only want share repurchases when the stock is cheap. We'll get to that shortly. And so, what we're here to do on this channel, for those of you who are new, is we look at these companies and we realize that there could be a great story here, but we want to find the right price to pay for these companies. So, you look at a company like Uber. Uber generated10 billion in profit in the last year, 9.76 billion in free cash flow. It is selling for 17 times free cash flow. Basically 17 times earnings. Is that cheap or expensive?

[00:01:03]Well, it depends. It could be cheap. It could be expensive. If the company was declining in revenue, that'd probably be pretty expensive. If the company was growing 30% per year, that's dirt effing cheap. That's what I want you guys remembering when you guys watch our channel is that don't just ask is this cheap or expensive. What would make this cheap? What would make this expensive?

[00:01:25]What would make this cheap is if if that they can grow their earnings and their revenue at a much higher rate than what is expected for a company that sells for this kind of multiple. Our community members have this as a buy with an average intrinsic value of $109. Guys, great business. Gross profit is 40%.

[00:01:42]Now, what's the negatives? Well, if self-driving becomes a big thing, Whimo is now doing like half a million uh trips per week or something like it's insane. If Uber can't get to that, there might be a problem for the business because at some point in the future, I'm sure transportation will be done without drivers. I've been in Whimo in Phoenix, Arizona, and I loved it. Apart from my car, except for my Whimo being um dirty and smelling like weed, I thought it was great. If they can get rid of that problem, I'm a happy camper. If anybody here who works at Whimo at Google has a problem with that, please uh reach out to me. I will gladly take free rides for the rest of my life in order to compensate me for the weed smell. But guys, this company, look at analyst estimates. They have revenue growth of 12,4 12 n% and they have earnings per share growing from 350 a share this year to 620. Now, these are analysts and they're not right on everything, but I look at Uber and this is one of Bill Aman's I think it's his number one position. I like Uber, but more importantly, I like the valuation. Let's go look at the stock mark stock analyzer tool and look at our assumptions, guys. I did a 10-year analysis. I did 6, 9, and 14% revenue growth. I did profit and free cash flow of 18, 22, and 26. Now, keep in mind, they've only done those numbers, the low end in the last year, but I think as time goes on, they're going to get better and better in profitability.

[00:03:06]What's the PE and price of free cash flow 10 years from now? I did 18, 22, and 26. And my no margin of safety, 9% intrinsic value. What is the company worth? Metric return of 9%. I hit the analyze button.

[00:03:21]This is why I'm interested. I have a low price of 95, high price of 334, middle price of 170. So my value is actually higher than our community members. Our community members said intrinsic value of 109. I'm at 150 to 170. That's incredible. Which at today's prices means that's a 19% return. Now, is that for sure going to happen? No. But if I could have 30 or 40 companies that have these return potentials based on reasonable assumptions, I'm gonna be a happy guy. I'm gonna be a very happy guy. And if I'm wrong and I still make 10 or 11%, I'm a happy guy. Imagine being wrong and every time you're wrong, you still make 10% a year. Tim's laughing over here because it's absolutely true. By the way, it could be less than that. We don't know the future, but our job is to pick a basket of stocks, whether it's five stocks or 50 stocks, and buy them in a way that is based on reasonable assumptions about the future.

[00:04:17]Stock number two in a very popular stock in our community, Novo Nordisk.

[00:04:24]It's hard to even say that name. Only up 2% today, but guys, they crushed it.

[00:04:29]Revenue beat by 36% per profit beat by 19%. They were they were supposed to they were estimated to do 11.13 billion in revenue. They did 15.17.

[00:04:41]They were supposed to do 87 cents per share. They did a$14. How did they beat by that much on revenue and not more on earnings per share? That's kind of surprising for me. The stock's up 2% today. Is the market closed yet? The market has not closed yet, guys. The only problem I have with drug companies is this is clearly on the whole Ompic WGO, you know, bandwagon, which I think is a phenomenal product. We don't know the long-term implications of it. But these have a short window. You got to know the pipeline is good. And it's it's I I tend to avoid um biotechnology in these these companies because I look at it going I don't understand the pipelines and all these things and I don't want to bet on that. I just stay out of it. I think there's other companies that for me I'd rather buy. But for people in our community, they love these companies. So if you're in the community, please bring it up in the chats because people love talking about it. Finally, a company that I own and don't buy company just because I do or anybody else on the internet for that matter. Disney. Let's see how Disney did today after they reported. Oh wow. up 7.6% today. Guys, I'm a shareholder. I didn't even know this happened. Why? Because I could not give a What I care about is what's Disney going to look like 10 or 20 years from now. Not this quarter. But they had a double beat today. They beat on revenue 25.17 versus 24.88 expected.

[00:06:00]They beat on profit at $157 versus a $149 expected. Revenue and total segment operating income grew 7% year-over-year.

[00:06:10]Um, Disney Plus growth accelerated from 11% in Q1 to 13% in Q3 Q2. Subscription growth came from both price and volume and advertising revenue saw double digit growth. Disney Experience, which is theme parks and stuff like that, posted a 7% increase in revenue. Guys, is Disney back? Well, it's been on a roller coaster. It seems to be selling for a very high multiple of earnings, but I think it's a premium business. Like if I gave you a hundred billion dollars today and said compete with Disney, you wouldn't be able to. And that to me is a sign of a a moat status. Like hey, I can't just compete with money. That's a very difficult thing to do. It's selling for 15 times earnings because they're their free cash flow is a lot lower than their net income. Um they pay a big dividend of 2.5% but it only eats up 1.8 billion of their free cash flow. And look at this revenue growth. 5.8% a year for the last 10 years. 9 and a half% for the last five, 4.28 for the last three, and their profit margin is finally getting back to where it should be. Look at their 5-year profit margin. 6.27. One year is 12.8.

[00:07:19]Once free cash flow and net income start to equate out, it'll be free cash flow rising.

[00:07:26]15 times free cash flow potentially at some point for Disney.

[00:07:31]Guys, I I just disagree there. And our community members don't agree with me.

[00:07:34]They have this as a hold. They're not huge fans of the of the company and the stock. Let's pull up Disney. Last time I did Disney, I did a 10-year analysis. I did three, five, and seven% revenue growth. I did free cash flow and profit margin of 8, 10, and 12%. I did a PE, which I think is low of 19, 22, and 25.

[00:07:53]I think it should be actually I'm make that I'm going to make that higher. I'm going to go 20, 23, and 26. Guys, I have a hard time believing that Disney is a high teens multiple company. it deserves a premium to the market. And then finally, my 9% no margin of safety return. Analyze button. Stocks at 108. I have a low price of 78, high price of 190, middle price of 125. So, I'm not bending over backwards to buy more of it because, you know, 10.9% return. It's not really like enough for me. But the point is, I know where I stand and if it happens to fall further, I'm going to buy more of it. And this is the way we look at investments here on this channel, guys. So, guys, we're going to do Door Dash's earnings really soon, but guys, look at this. NASDAQ up 2%. S&P up one and a half%.

[00:08:45]I I don't know what to say. Like, I said it in a video that was coming out soon.

[00:08:50]Tim, I came in the studio today and Tim looks at me and goes, "Paul, is that different this time?" And I said, "Doesn't it feel like it?" It just feels like it's different. No matter what happens, stocks keep going up. Oh, it's it's down 10% to start the year. Bam, right back up. Now it's up 10%. It is craziness out there. Warren Buffett and Greg Ael over at Birkshshire had their annual meeting and they said, "This is gambling. This is just gambling now."

[00:09:14]And that doesn't end very well. Now, what does that mean for you? Well, guys, if you're disciplined, it just means be ready. Doesn't mean, you know, sell everything. That's the last thing that I'm doing. But it means be ready. Now, I've got a lot of real estate and businesses, and I'm still dollar cost averaging every single month into lowcost ETFs, and I'm buying stocks and selling cash secured puts on stocks that I want at lower prices. Don't think for a second that if the market falls 50%, I don't expect my stocks to go down along with them. Absolutely, it'll happen. But I'm trying to get myself in the habit of always doing the right thing no matter where valuations are. Wow, Door Dash was volatile today. Oh, and they've reported obviously because they're up 3.75% suddenly. Can Tim please tell me what they reported because they're up a lot of money. They were up to 172 today. Now they're at 174 after hours. Guys, here's what I like about Door Dash. Well, Tim sends it to me. Higher free cash flow than an income. The thing I don't like is 38 times free cash flow, but this is a fast growing business. They did revenue of 13.7 billion with a lot of growth ahead. Let's see what analysts think about the growth.

[00:10:22]They have growth of 30%, 20%, 18. Oh my god, look at this is the furthest I've ever seen. Have you ever seen this much?

[00:10:28]This this analyst estimates on this is seven, eight years of analyst estimates.

[00:10:32]I've never seen this before. Have you?

[00:10:35]>> I never Yeah, this is a lot. Wow. Go Door Dash.

[00:10:39]From 18 billion to 50 billion. Guys, I love Door Dash. I think it's an absolutely brilliant company. Years ago in college, I want to start an Instacart kind of business, but it wasn't called Instacart. It was just me saying, "Why don't we do delivery for for uh grocery stores?" Even as recently as 17 18 years ago, I own a lot of apartment buildings in a suburb of Cleveland called Shaker, and I wanted the local grocery store, Heinens's, which is a great grocery store, to deliver, and they're like, "Yeah, not going to happen." Now, look what happens with it. Has there have we seen the reported um numbers yet, Tim?

[00:11:09]Oh my god, guys. They missed on revenue.

[00:11:12]They missed on revenue. They reported 4.04 billion in revenue versus 4.15 expected. Is this Bizarro World, Tim?

[00:11:20]Like literally yesterday, every company beat on like double beats and you know, and the stocks went down. Today, we've had two companies miss on revenue and the stocks I This is unbelievable to me.

[00:11:30]They're reporting 42 cents in earnings per share versus 37 cents expected. So, guys, they're up 10 and a half% right now. Ah, man. So, they did. Let's see what they Let's pull up um their I want to I love looking at their reports. So, Door Dash um earnings release. We had a strong start to 2026 with rigorous execution across our business. All right. Total orders increased 27% year-over-year to 933 million orders.

[00:12:01]They had market GOV, that's the total value of all the orders, was 31.6 billion, which means the average order size was like what, 33 bucks roughly, give or take. Revenue increased 33% year-over-year to $4 billion. Net income decreased 5% year-over-year. Um, but adjusted EBA increased 28%. Look at this.

[00:12:24]Look at this. I mean, this thing is just a grower. I love it. I absolutely love this company. Shares outstanding up a little bit from 436 billion to 442, but down from last quarter, which is good.

[00:12:39]Oh my god.

[00:12:42]Listen, it's great. It is great. I love it. It's a great company. The question is, is what's the right price for it?

[00:12:50]So, let's go to our stock analyzer tool.

[00:12:52]Let's see what the eight pillars look like. GH. So, here's my stock analyzer.

[00:12:55]I did 8, 12, and 16% revenue goes through the next 10 years. I did 15, 20, and 25% profit margin. They've never done that, but I'm assuming the business will get better and they'll be able to get to that PE. I did 13, 17, and 21, and finally a 9% desired annual return now. So, let's go hit the analyze button. I have a low price of 95, high price of 400, middle price of 202. So, if my middle assumptions all all occur and I bought today, I get about 11.4% return on my money, discounted cash flow. Is that enough? I don't know.

[00:13:28]That's a good question. For me, it's not. So, guys, if you're new to our channel, do me a favor. Subscribe if you like this and you want to watch more.

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