The Morning Show: Dangote Eyes Kenya for New Refinery

Added: 2026-05-17

[00:00:05]Aliko Dangote, Africa's wealthiest industrialist, has stated that he's eyeing Kenya as a site of a huge $17 billion 650,000 barrel-a-day oil refinery he plans to build in East Africa after questions over a previous push to build the facility in Tanzania. Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan last week complained angrily to her Kenyan counterpart William Ruto that she had not been consulted over the earlier plan to build it on her country's coastline, which was announced in her absence last month at an infrastructure summit. For the East African refinery to get off the ground, Dangote said he would need Ruto to offer land, some East Africa financing, and most importantly, protection from what he called the dumping of cheap cheap fuel by countries such as Russia or India.

[00:00:57]Meanwhile, fresh concerns have emerged over the NNPC's latest agreement with two Chinese firms for the rehabilitation and operation of the Port Harcourt and Warri refineries following a new assessment which warned that the deal may expose Nigeria to significant technical, financial, and operational risks. The policy analysis was prepared by the Ali Alliance for Economic Research and Ethics Limited. According to the report, although San Jiang Chemical is a legitimate petrochemical company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, its expertise is concentrated mainly in downstream petrochemical products such as ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, surfactants, and methanol to olefins, processing rather than large-scale crude oil refinery.

[00:01:47]According to reports by Vanguard, former President Goodluck Jonathan plans to return to the presidency using the People's Democratic Party PDP as platform to actualize his renewed presidential ambition. The report says a top official in Jonathan's team confirmed that the decision to use the PDP followed extensive deliberation over where his chances were brighter in returning to power to provide quality leadership to the country amid growing hardship and poverty. However, the Tanimu Turaki-led faction of the People's Democratic Party has said that former President Goodluck Jonathan is a registered member of the party under its leadership, adding that he recently participated in the party's digital membership registration exercise. It stated this while dismissing as fake a series of campaign posters circulating on social media linking Jonathan to various political parties ahead of the 2027 general election.

[00:02:44]In other news, the Nigeria Democratic Congress, NDC, on Saturday formally zoned its 2027 presidential ticket to Southern Nigeria for a single four-year term, a major political decision that has effectively opened the door for former Anambra State Governor Peter Obi and other Southern aspirants to contest on the party's platform. The resolution was adopted at the party's maiden national convention after a motion moved by the lawmaker representing Ogbaru Federal Constituency of Anambra State in the House of Representatives, Afam Victor Ogene. Delegates at the convention unanimously endorsed the proposal that the NDC presidential ticket should remain in the South for only one term of four years beginning from 2027, after which it would automatically return to the North in 2031.

[00:03:36]The ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, stepped up preparations for its primaries scheduled between May 15 and 23, 2026.

[00:03:45]The party over the weekend screened aspirants seeking to contest various elective positions ahead of the 2027 general elections. Party officials say the process is aimed at ensuring credible candidates emerge through transparent internal procedures.

[00:04:03]The River State Governor, Siminalayi Fubara, was screened on Sunday. Our rights correspondent, Mary Chinda, reports that the governor declined to speak to journalists, responding only with a brief remark, "No comment."

[00:04:16]>> [snorts] >> Well, some aspirants seeking elective positions on the platform of the APC have called on the party leadership to ensure a transparent, credible, and violence-free primary process ahead of the elections. Speaking after the screening exercise in Abuja, the aspirants stressed the need for fairness, internal democracy, and strict adherence to the party's guidelines to guarantee unity and strengthen confidence in the electoral process.

[00:05:08]Well, I mean, the our party is screening candidates for the upcoming election.

[00:05:15]So, I think they're screening the governorship aspirants here at the Kaduna house in Abuja. And uh the essence is to make sure that your credentials are correct.

[00:05:26]They validate everything you submitted to make sure there are no issues.

[00:05:31]No, we submitted before, they validated, and then they will ask you questions.

[00:05:35]So, that's the process, just to make sure that everything that you put down in paper is actually true. And to make sure that you've been a member of the party for some time. So, they check everything.

[00:05:46]I want history to kind to me.

[00:05:49]And it will be unkind if given the opportunities that have been given by this country, I do not go back and try and help fix our country at the state and the local government level because this is the Achilles heel of our system. We need the states to function. We need local governments to function effectively and that's the way we can fight insecurity.

[00:06:18]That's the way we can tackle the issue of out of school children so that we can bring back the system of education to the same levels and even better than the one that I enjoyed. has already made a public statement that um the primaries is going to be free and fair.

[00:06:39]Uh it is going to be direct primaries and where it is going to be consensus, everybody must be on board and agree.

[00:06:45]So, we believe that the process will be free and fair and uh we believe that the party at the national headquarters will put their eyes on ground in all the states to make sure that uh not nothing untoward is done to frustrate the process. Since we are invited for screening and we have been screened here, so it is an indication that at least the party at the national level has given each and every Nigerian a playing ground because internal democracy internal justice is very important to the survival of democracy in Nigeria. So, because of this the party allows each and every one of us to come here and to be screened objectively and even at the state level in Gombe State, I believe that the party has issued a statement that they are ready for the direct primaries. So, I think this is also commendable to both the federal and also the state level for shifting their position. And what is important is not only the direct primaries, but direct primaries must be very transparent, very fair, and at the same time to be very independent.

[00:07:53]All right, political season is heating up. The race to 2027 is getting fiercer, and of course the date is approaching very fast. Dr. If I just If I come to you, I I just take on a few stories this morning. Um first of all, let me say congratulations to Aliko Dangote, even though it hasn't happened yet. But what we see with the Nigerian story demonstrates the possibilities of what can be, and that even though the Nigerian refinery took about 10 years to emerge, hopefully the learnings and the you know, infrastructure on ground based on the experience in the Nigerian setting up of the refinery would make what is proposed as it as the Kenyan ambition, Kenyan proposal go smoother and faster. Um I already said earlier on that he had emphasized in an earlier interview with the Financial Times that he could essentially start the process this year, 2026, if the parameters or the some of the requirements, basic requirements are met from the from the Kenyan end of things.

[00:08:57]Number one, he said that if they can give him land, he will need of course some commitment in finances from the government of Kenya. And if they are also able to put policy in place to avoid dumping of cheap fuels from places like Russia and India. If these three conditions can be met, then it is very possible that East Africa might very well be home to the second Dangote refinery with capacity of 650,000 barrels per day. And you know, the the benefits of this are immeasurable. They're quite they're you know, worthy of mention. Number one is that the conflict in the Middle East has demonstrated or revealed to us the potential for Africa as the next frontier when it comes to oil or supply of oil and a major player in the global supply of oil. Beyond that is even within the continent and within the countries, especially the region of East Africa, in energy security. The world has also seen that based on the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz in this Middle Eastern war, we cannot rely or continue to be dependent on foreign importation of oil. As we've seen some countries how it has affected quite significantly the operations. Also, don't forget that the Dangote Refinery is also a major importer exporter of urea. Another product that's been affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So, the potentials, the opportunities are immense and I believe that and thankfully, you know, talking about that Nairobi is the home to the France-Africa conversation. This for the next few days I'll be having Abiodun speak to us in a few minutes and he'll be giving us the updates from that. Perhaps this is Kenya's turn. This is Kenya's time to take on the opportunity. Um, the only thing I'm wondering is why it's cheaper in Kenya. I believe that in Nigeria it cost about 20, uh, you know, 20 billion dollars to put up the refinery. So, I wonder why it's now 17 in the case of Kenya. But, in the area of good investment, absolutely.

[00:10:52]Nigeria is already benefiting from the Dangote Refinery coming on stream. I cannot imagine how we would have been even more impacted by the war, uh, the Middle Eastern war if we did not have that security, that shock provided by the Dangote Refinery. All right, let me go on to some politics now this morning.

[00:11:09]A lot is happening. This Jonathan conversation has come back again. Last week was when we showed and earlier on in the show, you know, one of our bulletins we talked about, um, some a group going to see former President Goodluck Jonathan and asking him, urging him, encouraging him to run for election. And then he had come out to speak without making any commitments about the importance of, um, voter participation and you know Nigerians shouldn't have voter apathy, having your PVCs, registering to vote, collecting and so on.

[00:11:40]I think I can say that President Goodluck Jonathan is not going to run. I say this because if you look at there was a particular headline in 2022 in this day newspaper that said had the same storyline around President Jonathan, you know, potential to run causes a stir. And it almost seems like deja vu again. Did he run in 2023? Absolutely not in the in the elections. No, he didn't. Because he has taken that position and continue to say that he's a statesman. He's there to he's traveled across the African continent observing elections. He's been consulted across different party lines from different political aspirants. And so this is the position he has taken. What more does he want? He has served as deputy governor.

[00:12:21]He has served as governor. He has served served as vice president. He has served as president in himself. And he left a legacy where people still refer to one of the biggest statements in Nigerian political terrain in modern times where he says no life of a Nigerian is worth the ambition of any man. And that has cast put him in the line of history Nigerian history perhaps forever. And so if he comes back, it might change some of the gains that he's made despite the fact that he left on a wave of people criticizing the way that he handled insecurity which you know in some quarters have been said was a a creation of his political enemies. But now we've seen that you cannot just politicize insecurity. It is the responsibility of leadership to take ownership of that.

[00:13:04]And so whilst people can compare the economy under the Jonathan administration, the the naira to the dollar, the GDP, foreign reserves, you cannot he's also not made that commitment. The other question even if in the very rare instance that he decides to run is which party is he going to run? Yes, some people have come out to say that okay, the PDP they're even going to buy a phone for which PDP? The PDP in its current state? The PDP that does not have a sense of direction currently? I'm sorry to say, but that's the obvious thing. I mean, already it's there's already even a faction with regards to which side of the PDP he's going to go to. On one hand, they're saying that they have posters in Kaduna for instance, where they are putting him and putting on the party. And on the other hand, Tanimu Turaki faction, which is still under debate based on ruling the Supreme Court ruling. He's saying that no, he's registered under the under their party. So, there's already division and confusion on that level. You know, taking up you know, you going to the PDP will just be I don't know. I mean, I I don't understand how that would work. But, finally, what that would do if he runs, which I doubt very much, is that it would further divide the opposition vote, which was the position of the Christian Association of Nigeria and other groups have come out to respond to potential, you know, President Goodluck Jonathan running. Would he Would it excite the race? Absolutely. I believe that he's one candidate that could potentially give the you know, the president, that's President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the APC a run for their money. However, would he run? I doubt that very much, but let's see how the race goes. This is politics, anything can happen.

[00:14:38]Okay, I mean, very good thoughts, I yeah. As regards that, dear President Jonathan, those that said you were not good enough in 2015 are trying to push you around this time around. If you fall for their gambit and if you fall for what they are trying to push, they will just have used you to achieve their own aims and objectives because in the end, it's all about them, not about you.

[00:14:59]They came out, they said all sorts of things. They cast aspersions on you.

[00:15:03]They made you an object of ridicule. You took the higher ground by calling President Buhari to congratulate him.

[00:15:09]Do not allow them push you into this.

[00:15:11]I'm not saying you don't have a right to run, but what are the odds? Yes, you get in there, people are talking about the PDP running in the PDP.

[00:15:18]PDP is in shambles as they as we speak.

[00:15:21]So, even if you get on the ballot, pending when PDP seeks interpretation for which faction holds the ace, then you get on the ballot, what are you going to tell the Nigerian people?

[00:15:33]I'm just asking. What are you going to tell the Nigerian people when you campaign?

[00:15:38]Oh, what we didn't do about 10 years ago, that's what we are coming to do now.

[00:15:43]Is that what you're going to tell them?

[00:15:45]What are you going to give to them as a legacy? People have already placed you in a certain pedestal.

[00:15:50]You've had advantage point to look at this.

[00:15:53]What are you going to tell them?

[00:15:55]So, it is also incumbent on all of us to be careful.

[00:15:59]And we shouldn't take the Nigerian people for granted.

[00:16:02]And because President Jonathan also running like he rightly said, yes, we also divided a lot of the opposition.

[00:16:08]President Tinubu, there are a lot of people are complaining that oh, things are tough in this economy. Easily swing his way as it used to be because of the division of the opposition. He will easily have his way.

[00:16:17]So, we need to be circumspect in doing things.

[00:16:22]And being a statesman, if only some people will understand the term statesman, means having respect and decorum for the interest of the state over self.

[00:16:33]As regards the APC, there's a lot of chaos going on in the APC as we speak today.

[00:16:38]The fact that the consensus thing has thrown a lot of things off balance.

[00:16:42]The screening process too, if you see what happened to Fubara yesterday, although some said he was told to take a bow, some said otherwise, some said, you know, he wasn't screened, some said he came out angry. Whatever it is, look at Nasarawa.

[00:16:55]Look at even other states of the country.

[00:16:58]Look at Ogun state here. Who is going to emerge governor? Gbenga Daniel, former Governor Gbenga Daniel or former current Governor Dapo Abiodun?

[00:17:06]So, the APC is on tenterhooks and that's why you are seeing a lot of defection to other parties like the NDC and the likes. The NDC had their own what's it called convention over over weekend. The NDC also needs to watch it.

[00:17:17]And it is time for the NDC to start showing us their manifesto and how they're going to do because we're going to press their neck.

[00:17:23]Because I what I see is that NDC has now become a party like Dr. predicted for internally displaced politicians, IDPs.

[00:17:31]All of them are running to NDC now.

[00:17:32]Everybody I'm seeing all sorts of posters. And please, guys, I'm not partisan. Stop sending me all sorts of your political ambition. Post it out there on your pages.

[00:17:41]Please.

[00:17:42]We need real democracy that works for the interest of the people.

[00:17:45]So, a party where a lot of people are going to is also a recipe for chaos.

[00:17:51]Yes, Saraki Dickson was saying we have no factions. All of a sudden you start to see that they're factions. And they're further divisions. This day stood by the story over the weekend of the cracks even in the progressive governors forum. In fact, the real has done an investigative journalism job today to say that it was because of 800 billion that was donated that some people shared amongst themselves that is causing the chaos in the progressive governors forum.

[00:18:15]So, you can see fractures even in the fold of the APC and people are beginning to pivot. It's going to be a very convoluted and interesting season.

[00:18:24]But, the most important thing is the question is are we thinking of the Nigerian people that are long-suffering?

[00:18:30]Because I don't think we're thinking of them. Look at what happened in Jos over the weekend.

[00:18:35]Another killing, seven people on Friday.

[00:18:37]I think about 21 people.

[00:18:39]The military said they were bombing a place in Niger.

[00:18:42]Bombing terrorists. Which we support them for their good work. Now, we're hearing about collateral damage. The military has come out to say that there's no collateral damage. People are not being killed.

[00:18:51]So, you are having a lot of this.

[00:18:53]Nigerian people are taking so much heat.

[00:18:55]Who is going to speak up for them?

[00:18:58]Everybody is just talking about their own interests.

[00:19:02]Who is going to talk about development and the overriding interest of the Nigerian people? Who truly cares for them? And that's why you Nigerian people, you need to be able to scrutinize. You need to be able to press the neck of the APC and ask them what would be their manifesto. Press the neck of the ADC, press the neck of all the political party and ask them, what do they have?

[00:19:19]You, the Nigerian people, you need to be selfish this period.

[00:19:23]Because these guys don't care about you.

[00:19:24]They care about their interests.

[00:19:26]Look [snorts] at some of the lawmakers that defected from the Labour Party that that rode on the mandate of the people freely.

[00:19:32]That they went to the APC then. Things are not favoring them now. They're trying to find their way back to the NDC. Do these people have shame at all?

[00:19:42]They're trying to find their way already to the NDC because it doesn't favor them in the APC.

[00:19:47]Huh?

[00:19:48]Sometimes, goodbye to these people is the second chance they need.

[00:19:53]Because they would do it over and over again. They are not sorry. So, you should mark these people out. People that rode on the Labour wave, mark them out.

[00:20:02]It's always about them in the end.

[00:20:05]And as I wrap up, like I said rightly, as regards Dangote Refinery, nobody's saying Dangote is not an innovative person. Nobody's saying he can't move mountains. Nobody doesn't do what he's asked for him.

[00:20:15]But I like I said before, the challenges that pervades the air are different in all the nations. And that's why I give kudos to Emefiele that time. You can see, Soludo has come out to say that, "Oh, building whatchamacallit in Tanzania and all of that."

[00:20:28]You can see the caveat even Dangote gave. The 17 [snorts] billion you have to raise it. You know, have you tried raising money in this economy and see how easy it is to raise 17 billion for infrastructure projects in East Africa?

[00:20:39]Wait. That project will have to have a long-term turnover. It's going to take no less than 5 years.

[00:20:44]Then the availability. Ruto is all hunky-dory with it. He loves it because he wants development. What if the refinery is not has not been it does not complete before Ruto's time expiration?

[00:20:55]Dangote will have to manage new relationships. So, those are the factors and the peculiarities we are talking about there. But we wish him well. He's an innovative man. He's somebody that has pushed the frontiers. And we thank Dangote. At least he has shown accountability, not like NNPC that's trying to do a deal and MOU that people are now complaining about with with companies. And for the love of mercy, please you have seen a man like Dangote that can fix the refinery. Why don't you give it to him? Dangote bought those refineries anyway before they went to deceive President Yar'Adua and took those refineries back in the first place. So, please let us look for people locally that can run that refinery.

[00:21:28]Dangote has shown that he's worthy.

[00:21:30]All right. Well, I want to comment on all the issues that have been put on the table and there are so many, too many of them if I must say so, but let's hope that there will be enough time, otherwise I will keep quiet. Now, let's start with Dangote and Tanzania and Kenya. Now, the president of Dangote Refinery, that's Aliko Dangote, has proposed to countries in East Africa that given the opening that the crisis in the Middle East has offered and given the fact that most African countries are now running to Dangote Refinery in Nigeria, he could in fact, you know, reciprocate replicate what he has done in Nigeria in other parts of Africa. And that's the basis of his engagement with the presidents of Kenya and Tanzania to build in that axis a 17 billion-dollar refinery that will also produce about 650,000 barrels per day. In other words, saying that look, the opportunity that this global crisis has offered, the world losing about 10 billion, you know, worth of, you know, crude oil per day in terms of production as pointed out by Wael Sawan, that's the Shell Global CEO, that the same thing could be done in East Africa and Africa being the last frontier in terms of effort and productivity will benefit. However, we do not have the details whether Kenya and Tanzania and other countries in the East African Community have you know taken further steps forward.

[00:23:16]But what we recommend is that the Dangote Refinery has shown integrity, has shown the capability to keep to promise, has shown capability not just to promote Nigeria, but also to promote the idea of Pan-Africanism in the interest of some of the objectives of the AFCFTA, that's the African Continental Free Trade Agreement. And what he needs is the support of you know both President Ruto and the President of Tanzania and other presidents in that region. Allied to that is this conversation about Nigeria going to sign an MOU with portfolio, you know, special purpose vehicles in China. Now, we've been on this subject for more than a week and yesterday I had Professor Ken Ife on This Day Live. He had a different opinion, but he being my guest, I restrained myself from arguing with him. And my simple argument is that look, those two refineries, Port Harcourt and Warri, the truth of the matter is that they don't even belong to the NNPC they belong to the the federation.

[00:24:35]So why is it not the National Council of Federation of Privatization that is determining the future of those two refineries?

[00:24:44]And why are we not dealing with Sinopec, you know, the biggest the biggest I think that's the biggest you know oil oil and gas company in China or PetroChina for example. They came to Nigeria. They used to relate with us, but they left Nigeria because of the way we manage situations here. Now, the contractors, let us even not go back to the older ones that I mentioned previously. That is Japan companies money managing the Port Harcourt refinery, the French and the Italians working on the Warri refinery. Okay, the ones that we have spent so much money to revive those refineries and nothing has been produced. Why are we now going to China looking for small companies in China?

[00:25:40]As Dele Momodu, who is involved in that business and who has been commenting on the fate of refineries for years, either in his capacity as chairman of Chamber of Commerce or, you know, as somebody involved in that line of business. Why are we choosing, you know, two companies over which questions have been raised?

[00:26:02]So, those issues are on the table, but in the spirit of balance, it was good to have had Professor Ken Imefe defending. But, I have now joined Dele Momodu to say that, "Look, that business is suspicious." And that was why I said that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu should look into the matter and raise questions. And I have asked the question, "Has anybody seen the MOU that was signed?" I don't think anybody has seen it. We want that MOU in the public domain so that we can interrogate it. Very quickly, let me go [clears throat] to President Jonathan said you know, matter.

[00:26:46]Now, President Jonathan himself is the only person who can tell us whether he wants to run or not? What we know is that there's social pressure on him. You have a catalog of groups.

[00:27:00]Bring back our our good luck.

[00:27:02]South-South Renaissance.

[00:27:05]Goodluck Jonathan Coalition.

[00:27:08]Groups at home and abroad. There's another group in Canada that says that the only way to move Nigeria forward is to have President Jonathan. I have made a point before that, you know, it is vindication for President Goodluck Jonathan. After all, when we left government in 2015, everybody said, "Oh, this is the worst government we have ever seen." Well, all the people who said that they are apologizing now. And now they want President Jonathan to come and fix Nigeria. That's what they are saying.

[00:27:41]But there is a legal part to it beyond social pressure.

[00:27:46]Which is the section 137 sub 3 of the 1999 Constitution, section 182 sub 3 of the 1999 Constitution under the fourth alteration that was carried out. Now, that fourth alteration that came came after President Jonathan had left office. And the big issue here, which had already been determined by the Federal High Court in Yenagoa, is whether the law can have retrospective effect. Now, there's another story saying President Jonathan has now gone to court to seek further clarification on that matter.

[00:28:23]The matter has not yet been determined by the court, but the only thing we can hold on to is that he is the beautiful bride. But a man who has been president of this country, and that his country is also asking for, it's up to him to say whether he will run or not. It is not something that you know commentators can dictate to him or pressure groups can dictate to him.

[00:28:49]It is his own choice.

[00:28:51]Now, beyond all of that, you have the NDC matter. Over the weekend, the most important thing that came out from the National Democratic Congress, you know, the Nigerian Democratic Congress, is that there was a there was a the registration of party members, there was a convention, and then all of that.

[00:29:15]But, the bigger story is the assumption or the declaration that the NDC says their candidate must come from the south. And, you know, Dr. Kwankwaso reported as having endorsed that. And on the basis of that, the story we hear is that the NDC is going to adopt the OK proposition.

[00:29:39]And the Obedients have been jubilating that Mr. Peter Obi will most likely be the presidential candidate of that party. The party itself has not said so.

[00:29:50]So, it's a developing story. We don't know what will happen. And then we you could well ask, if they say it's the south that would that would produce the candidate, who is going to be that candidate? The people who are lobbying for President Jonathan, okay, are they thinking of President Jonathan as the candidate of the NDC? Are they thinking of him as the candidate of the PDP, which is a troubled platform? And that's why there are questions about whether President Jonathan will run or not. Which platform is he likely to to use? So, and then agreeing on a four-year deal, look, that that's something in the air.

[00:30:31]How is it going to work? Because even if they choose Mr. Peter Obi, Mr. Peter Obi as an individual can say, "I want to be president for just four years, and I will let it go. But, if the way this politics is, you know, shaping out, people are using ethnicity as leverage.

[00:30:52]If he says I can do 4 years as a human being, and then the Ibos, who have been marginalized in terms of representation, then say, "No, you are not there because of yourself. You are there because of us."

[00:31:04]And you cannot, you know, wrong foot in the goal by saying you will do 4 years. Which 4 years? You too, you are entitled to 8 years. So, there are some textual issues that many people are not looking at.

[00:31:17][music] In APC, certainly, yeah, some governors have been cleared, members of House of Reps have been cleared and all of that. But, the big issue in the All Progressives Congress that I hear, as you have been able to get a billions in time from the sale of forms, is whether it will be consensus or it will be direct primaries. And those who have been ousted are saying it should be direct primaries. So, they also have their own issue about internal democracy. These, in my view, are the issues. All right. Thank you so much, Dr. Bakare. [music] As always, we find Dr. Bakare brilliant submission.