100% ROI OSCR Full Analysis | Buy, Sell, or Short This Stock?

本站添加: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]In the past month, there is a stock called Oscar Health Care, and it's up over 100%. The question a lot of people are asking is, is now a good time to buy or is this possibly a good time to sell?

[00:00:14]And for those that have the experience, possibly a good time to short. What's going on, guys? It's Ricky from Tech Bud Solutions. In this video, I'm going to be sharing my opinion based off of technicals and fundamentals. I want to share the good and the bad about this company. It actually was a stock that was brought up to me during one of our live trading sessions with my LPP team.

[00:00:36]Again, I do trade live every morning. If you ever want to tune on in, I would invite you. Click that second link in the description down below. You can sign up and watch me trade live as soon as tomorrow. With that being said, as you can see from lows of $10.60 to highs of $25 in a very short period of time. We're literally talking about a month and a half ago to the overall highs that it hit of nearly $26 per share is a 135% ROI in a matter of 49 days. A very attractive return. This got a lot of people to ask the question, "Oh, wow.

[00:01:10]Maybe I do want to invest in Oscar Health, right?"

[00:01:13]Well, I want to share with you the good and the bad. Now again, you're always entitled to your own opinion. So, if you believe in this company and or you don't, I would love to learn more about the why. Don't just say it I believe in it because I do. Share your why down in the comment section. And again, maybe you could convince me to possibly invest and or short the stock. The thing that I really like about this is that it's an overbought reversal, technically speaking. Not fundamentally, but technically speaking. It runs up, it tends to get rejected at a common resistance range. Remember, past performance don't mean future results, but patterns tend to repeat themselves, right? A common resistance right around 23.50, 23.50, 23.50, 23.50. So again, I'm not here to say that it has to sell off. I'm just here to say that it's gotten rejected at the same level for the past what? 2 years?

[00:02:05]And it's been rejected here four times. Every single time that it runs up to 2350, it sells back down to around $14 per share on the conservative side. Runs up, sells off, runs up. So, you can see why I'm entertaining the idea of possibly shorting it. Remember, shorting comes at a greater form of risk. If you're a beginner, do not short. With that being said, we began to plug it into our risk to reward ratio calculator. For those that don't know, again, if you click the second link on our homepage for LPP, you can see that we provide for you a risk calculator for you to be able to plan out your trade. And here we can put Oscar, we can put our desired entry price, which as of right now would be right around $22.36, our overall goal target of 1350, right? So, 2350, we're going to say the stop as if it makes new highs or right around $25, and the take profits is going to be right around 1350.

[00:03:03]So, right off the bat, I can see that, hey, with 100 shares, I could possibly make $1,000, I could possibly lose $150.

[00:03:12]It's a 6:1 ratio, almost a 7:1 ratio, right? And that's with the stop loss that I set of 25. I can follow more conservative, I can aim to be more aggressive. Nonetheless, I think it's super important for beginner traders to always understand the risk that they are about to take. Sometimes beginners focus too much on how much money they plan to make, but not enough not enough time on, well, what could you possibly lose? Risk is not something you can avoid. The only thing you can do with risk is to manage it. Remember, risk is not the enemy.

[00:03:42]No risk management is. And if anyone tries to convince you otherwise, they're not looking out for you, right?

[00:03:49]The first thing that I want you to know about Oscar it's that it doesn't trade like a normal stock. Just like it ran up 100% in a very short period of time, it could sell off 50%. If you're a beginner, this is why I said it from the very beginning. If you're a beginner, I would simply stay away from this company because of how volatile it is.

[00:04:08]Again, you need to learn how to walk before you run. So, I don't believe that this is a stock that's ideal for beginners based off of how quick it moves. A lot of emotions follow with a lot of volatility.

[00:04:20]With that being said, we talked about the technicals. It's an overbought reversal, right? RSI was at 80, almost 90. MACD, just looking at previous patterns, technically speaking, it's it meets almost the perfect setup of an overbought reversal. Not perfect in the sense of a real-world scenario.

[00:04:38]It's based off previous patterns. It ran up within a very short period of time and has history of correcting with a common support range. We talked about that. Now, let's talk about it fundamentally. Jumping into Investing Pro, again, if you ever want to use the software, it's the first link in the description down below if you want a discount for 50% off. With that being said, Investing Pro actually says that there's 25, almost 26% of upside. Okay.

[00:05:02]Well, let's learn more about this. As of right now, it says the average fair value is $28 per share.

[00:05:08]And if we actually pay attention to where it's at right now, it's at $22.38.

[00:05:13]So, I want to learn more about that. So, net income is expected to grow this year. Three analysts have revised their earnings upwards. The two concerns are that it suffers from weak gross margins and that the price momentum has been quite volatile. Again, I love that it talks about the good and the bad.

[00:05:30]Beginners need to always be aware not just of why to buy it, but also maybe why not to, right? It might not meet your criteria. It has great performance.

[00:05:38]Profitability is one of the biggest concerns, but price momentum, cash flow, and relative value is all fair. Growth health is fair.

[00:05:47]This is kind of like where I could see the growth story. Yes, it's a company that loses money, but it's trying to dig itself out of there, right? It loses nearly $40 million a year. It's valued at $13 billion, so it does trade at a negative P ratio.

[00:06:04]You guys know that if I think a company is a company, I will call it out for what it is, a overvalued company.

[00:06:13]There's a growth story with this. From what I've learned, right? Looking on over to the pro research, one of my favorite parts about Investing Pro.

[00:06:22]Remember, when you're trying to invest or trade a company, when you're really trying to invest, you want to dig deeper and understand a company fundamentally.

[00:06:28]So, not only do I want to see that it's a growing company when it comes down to quarter after quarter from revenue, but I also want to learn a little bit more about the business. This company is expected to grow over 20%. That could possibly get it to a point to be profitable by the end of the year. And that is one of the goals and expectations for Oscar. If it does end up being profitable, then at that point, it could begin to justify this valuation. So, that is the growth story, that it is growing and has been showing signs of consistent growth over the past few quarters, right?

[00:07:01]What is my biggest concern?

[00:07:03]The growth story is there, the CEO is very passionate about the company. He's invested into the business itself and he's bought like over a million dollars worth of the company with his own money.

[00:07:12]Great. I think that's all very fancy way to like show that you are you have some skin in the game.

[00:07:18]This is one of also my favorite parts, not just the bull case, but the bear case. Let's start off with the bull case. Why could I possibly want to invest into this, you know, value play?

[00:07:31]So, exceptional Q1 2026 earning performance with EPS of $2.07, beating consensus by 95%.

[00:07:39]Great. Robust membership growth of 56% year-over-year to now 3.2 million members. So again, understanding the business, they're based off of a subscription-based service that is often subsidized by the government. We'll get to that in just a little bit.

[00:07:54]Significant margin expansion. They are really trying to increase their overall margins. As you can see, they're not profitable, so that would be a big focus. Strong capital position, which I do agree with 8.1 billion in cash and investments including 1.7 billion in insurance subsidy capital with 809 million excess capital. So again, like they have cash and that's always super important, especially during an uncertain time. This is my biggest concern. Out of everything that is that they show, they revenue missed a 5.3%.

[00:08:24]Again, they beat earnings per share, but they missed revenue.

[00:08:27]Um concentration risk with 60 to 70% of revenue from volatile ACA individual marketplace. I had to look into that.

[00:08:39]Exposing the company to political and regulatory risk including potential policy changes, subsidy expirations, and the ongoing uncertainty of enhanced premium tax credits. For those that do not know, especially under the Trump administration, these subsidies might be removed and or harder to get. So for those that don't understand this model, 60 to 70% of Oscar's revenue is subsidized by this ACA program, this marketplace. So if they remove this program and or if they make it harder for them to be able to be subsidized by these users, their 3.2 million users, 60 to 70% of them are the, you know, subsidized by the government, that would be a huge hit.

[00:09:28]So there's the uncertainty that you just really don't know. Right? That is a bet where you have to ask yourself, are you willing to take that risk? There is no right or wrong answer. No one's going to look back and be like, you were an idiot and or you were a genius for taking or making that investment.

[00:09:47]It's what do you believe is likely to happen?

[00:09:51]Will this administration make it harder for the ACA individuals to continue to get subsidized? And if so, Oscar could possibly lose out on some revenue if they can no longer be subsidized by those users. It's the same thing with like the EV subsidies. Remember all these EV companies were earning credits by the government, being subsidized by the government anytime that someone purchased an EV vehicle.

[00:10:20]And also for consumers, we were given like a $7,500 tax credit. That incentive was removed. Therefore, demand slowed down. It dropped after those subsidies no longer existed. You would imagine the same thing happen if this were to present itself.

[00:10:40]Rising health care inflation pressures are also a concern, right? With increasing price and intense competition from well-capitalized national carriers like United Healthcare, Anthem, Cigna, Humana with greater scale advantages and the 28% premium rate increase of 2026 potentially driving member churn and market share loss despite current strong retention. So, they are complete competing in a very saturated market, but Oscar's kind of like the new kid on the block with a new type of system being subsidized by the government and showing signs of consistent growth.

[00:11:19]Originally, when I looked at the stock and I think I judged it because of its volatility.

[00:11:24]Don't get me wrong. I'm still not a fan of it. I don't think it would be a safe play.

[00:11:30]Can I now see, especially if it comes back down to like $12 to $13 per share, can I now see why investors can try to take the bet on Oscar?

[00:11:42]Sure.

[00:11:43]Fundamentally speaking, I do see the idea. I do see the growth, right? I see the growth. I see the outlook of hopefully being profitable by the end of this year.

[00:11:54]But the big concern is with 3.2 million members, but 60% of them being subsidized by the government, if those subsidies expire and/or are restricted by our government, what is Oscar Health going to look like then?

[00:12:13]Again.

[00:12:15]But if they don't, and if they continue to grow, and they do remain profitable, then Oscar can be undervalued.

[00:12:23]Right?

[00:12:24]So, just technically speaking in the short-term, I think that I wouldn't be surprised if Oscar begins to retrace back to $14 to $15 per share.

[00:12:35]Right? That's why I would be open to the idea of shorting Oscar based off of technicals and uncertainty about the subsidies.

[00:12:44]Long-term, I could see that if you're priced in well at like $10, $11, $12, $13 per share to go long, your position isn't incredibly aggressive that you're not leveraged, I do see the growth story, the turnaround story, the new kid on the block, increasing its margins, becoming profitable, and showing signs of consistent revenue growth and a member growth. And I can respect that.

[00:13:09]How do you guys think I did? Fair?

[00:13:12]Talked about the good, talked about the bad, talked about the technicals, talked about the fundamentals, talked about the bull case, talked about the bear case, right?

[00:13:20]So, now all you need to do is take time, learn more about the company, and ask yourself at what price would you feel comfortable either shorting it or going long on it? Or if you're a beginner, maybe just staying out of it, right? I just wanted to talk about it because it's something that a lot of people have recently brought to my attention, especially after this 100% ROI in a very short period of time. Remember, great volatility comes with great responsibility, and if it looks like it happened within a very short period of time, it looks too good to be true, then maybe it actually is, right?

[00:13:50]It doesn't mean you can't dig a little bit deeper, look into the company, and then maybe just wait for a better deal to present itself with the same company.

[00:13:57]You don't have to short it to try to make money on it. You can just wait for a price level that makes more sense to you to be able to buy it then when it actually meets your criteria at a fair value with a position size that you can actually tolerate the time that it might take for it to recover. Again, I hope that I did a decent job breaking Oscar down. And like I said, the software that I'm using to analyze this company fundamentally is called Investing Pro.

[00:14:19]You can get 50% off with the discount.

[00:14:21]It breaks down to less than $10 a month, and it's the first link in the description down below. If you like this risk calculator, and you would like to watch me trade live, like I said, it's a one-time payment, lifetime access, and you'll get to watch me trade live every single day. If you're a visual learner, and you learn best by watching other people do, we go live every morning at market open. So, if you feel lost in this market full of chaos, then join us.

[00:14:43]Second link down below, there's going to be a discount that will pop up. You just have to add that discount code at checkout, and you'll get nearly 50% off.

[00:14:52]I appreciate you guys' time. I hope that you hit the thumbs up, and like always, let's make sure that we end the year on a green note. Take care, guys.