The Bitcoin Warning Signs Are Here!

Hinzugefügt: 2026-05-19

[00:00:21]Heat. Heat.

[00:00:25]Heat. Heat. N.

[00:00:46]Heat. Heat. N.

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[00:02:16]Yeah.

[00:02:31]Heat.

[00:02:34]Good morning, afternoon, evening, legends. I know there's people from all over the world. Welcome to this live stream. Remember to smash up that like button. Hope you all had a fantastic weekend.

[00:02:46]Let's get the analysis on the way. But before I get to the analysis, let me first say hi to the beautiful community.

[00:02:53]Okay, I see see some familiar faces here in the live stream. Morning legends, Paul. Welcome to the live stream. Good morning all. Mr. Sculpt astronaut, always great to see you guys here. P Miss Paz, welcome.

[00:03:08]And um um hey lovely legends, great to see you here in the live stream. Crypto monkey, my favorite time of the day.

[00:03:15]Dealt live stream. Thank you so much, Mr. Paul. The this image is staring right at me. Smash the like button if you haven't done so already. And um let's get the party here on the road.

[00:03:27]And um right height, Mr. M Mr. Distant music, all the familiar faces here inside of the live stream. Let's get the party on the road. Okay. Right, legends.

[00:03:36]What can we expect? I did not do any trading over the weekend.

[00:03:41]As with most weekends, I don't trade on the weekends because that's when I take a break from the chart because as a day trader, I know there's always another trade around the corner. There was a small little SFP this morning that I missed out on.

[00:03:55]And um I know people are going to ask me, "Well, Devil, why didn't you just enter with a smaller position?" Because I will explain that when I get to the lower time frames, okay? There was a small little SFP that I wanted to get into. Small little SFP. Okay? Because for me, when I'm wrong, I like to get stopped out with profits.

[00:04:17]Okay? And I can be picky as a day trader. I can choose which trade I want to enter, which trade I don't want to enter. But because I missed the SFP at the level that I wanted to get in, I decided, okay, well, if it comes back down to that level, I will attempt the long. Okay. Right. But before we get to the smaller time frames, before we dive into this little structure, let's just discuss the larger structure since the low that was formed here at $60,000.

[00:04:47]Right from a bearish perspective, let's just get the elephant out of the room.

[00:04:52]We have a bare moon that has printed on Saturday which we all know too well can provide a little bit of selling pressure in the market. Okay, it would be very strange.

[00:05:08]I'm not saying it can't happen, but it would be very strange for a bare moon to print and for price to continue to the upside. It would be very strange to see that. Okay, if price can consolidate a little bit more, but there's a couple of scenarios that I would like to go go through. You can get a consolidation. That's perfectly fine.

[00:05:30]So perhaps price will go sideways, okay, at a bare minimum, but there's some selling pressure. There is the potential for a 1 2 3 4 5 end of an impulse to the downside. And there's definitely a chance for downwards momentum.

[00:05:50]Okay. So for the bulls, remember that most be bullish case scenario that we have been discussing. I just want to see if I have it here. Um most bullish on the 4hour for this scenario.

[00:06:05]It doesn't look great based on the selling pressure. Okay, it's not invalidated. The invalidation for this scenario is for price. Oops. Let me check try that again. Okay, the invalidation for the scenario is price should not tap that red line.

[00:06:24]The probability for this scenario is not looking great.

[00:06:29]The possibility, yes, probability low.

[00:06:34]Okay, because to have a bare moon print and to expect this to the upside, it's not looking great, guys. It's really not looking great.

[00:06:46]Okay? Because we all know and and I I mean I've shown this many times, okay?

[00:06:52]It's not common to have a bare moon print and for price to continue to the upside. Yes, it can make another high by all means. And that's one of the scenarios that I'm keeping an eye on is that this can be an A B C, but you still have selling pressure. So, it can take the high, but to get here, it doesn't seem like it's a high probability based on all the bare moons and bull moons that's printed so far.

[00:07:23]Okay, I'm not sure if you guys agree.

[00:07:24]Okay, it's just it's a game of probabilities and the at the end of the day, I have not seen a bare moon where price is falling to the downside do that. I haven't seen it. Yes, it can make a high like what happened here. It makes another high. Okay, but the selling pressure overall moves to the downside, right? Price can make highs, but you got a consolidation. So, if price had to come back up and claim the highs, I don't see that. Maybe it sweeps the highs and it falls to the downside, A B C, and then it continues when the full moon prints. That makes more sense.

[00:08:10]Okay. So, the the danger signs are in the air. Okay. I'm not sure why it's danger, but I see most people classify a bare moon or downwards momentum as danger. For me, it provides trading opportunities.

[00:08:23]Like I shared with the community this morning. Okay, I'm still in my short on both my accounts, Tubbit and Bluffin.

[00:08:31]I'm still in that short.

[00:08:33]Profits are nicely printing here to the downside. This morning I did take a little bit of profits on both both accounts. I remember I did do it on the two bit account. I must just check the bluffin account. Okay.

[00:08:49]Because if this is going to form, let's say this is the end of your impulse in a fivewave structure. Okay. Um let me just switch that scenario off. Okay. You have a 1 2 3 4 5. Okay, you start the correction. Start the correction. You can have an A, B, C. You could have a flat corrective structure.

[00:09:17]So yes, even with a bare moon, you can still claim the high, but I'm not expecting continuation. So still a very interesting zone for potential short, which is in that zone that I have been highlighting for weeks now. Okay, for the last two weeks, I've been highlighting that zone where price could definitely still reject um and for some reason I can't find the areas of resistance there to the upside.

[00:09:48]I must have moved it. Okay. But basically in a nutshell, what you are looking at is, and I know guys, I'm here on the 4hour time frame. Wherever this structure is going to end, oops, not that one. Your trendbased fib extension. Okay, you take it from the high. Wherever this low is going to end, that will be well, I can just use the lo the the latest low that we've got. If it moves continues to move down, I will just drag this flip down.

[00:10:17]But if price moves up, okay, and this will correspond, I can guarantee you this will correspond with those levels that I've been highlighting, the 0.618, the anchored VWAP, the 0.7 from a logarithmic perspective, you guys know those levels upstairs. Okay, let me switch on my flat targets. That is the zone where I will be looking for a rejection. Let me put a little boxy in there. Right, this is where price can reject.

[00:10:49]Maybe let's not make it green because it's a little bit Okay, there we go.

[00:10:54]Right. So, if price decides to turn around, this is one of the options that could play out. A Okay. A B C Maybe it's a contracting diagonal here to the downside. WXY, maybe it makes another leg to the downside, but you have the first leg of the corrective structure. You could form a three-wave structure up and then another fivewave structure to the downside. Price forms an A B C kaching and then price forms a higher low and you get continuation back to the upside.

[00:11:25]Right? So that is basically the first scenario that I wanted to discuss. Uh where did I put that extra fifth wave? Here we go.

[00:11:38]Right.

[00:11:42]I know it looks messy, but I'm going to explain it, guys. Okay, just ignore all the mess. Pay attention to the zones that I'm about to explain over here.

[00:11:51]Okay, I can count a completed fivewave structure from the low to the high to the upside.

[00:12:01]this if this is the impulse okay in a fivewave move your correction cannot end over here because it's before the 0.382 it's just a game of probability so when I say can't it can but the probabilities of it happening is very low right remember guys I am not a financial advisor I'm simply sharing with you how I approach the markets from a technical perspective and it's up to you to do your own research um at the end of the day. Okay, but in the scenario you can see that let me just take this out the way because I know it looks very messy here at the moment. Okay, you can see that when you have a fivewave move to the upside and now you have the start of the first corrective structure, you still if this is the impulse and price is going to form a higher low and continue. Well, it's not time yet for the correction to be done. So, it can still form a larger three-wave structure, finishing after the 0.382 and then price gets a bounce back to the upside. So, for now, this scenario seems highly likely.

[00:13:16]It either forms a three-wave corrective structure or price starts falling to the downside. Okay? Because remember the ABC that I've been discussing for the last 2 weeks if not longer. When you look at the entire structure here on the 4hour time frame, this could be the end of your A B C. Okay, diagonal in a Awave, three-wave structure in a B. And yes, you guessed it. Your Cwave has to be a 1 2 3 4 5. It could be the end. So, this could get really nasty to the downside.

[00:13:54]However, I have to highlight based on the local structure that is forming over here, it doesn't look great for an impulse to the downside. It looks more likely that this correction is going to continue. Okay? Because what is concerning for me never any invalidation. And if I go to the 1 hour time frame and I want to see well since the high was formed over here, I can see an impulse. Great. Okay. For the bears, if you want to see continuation to the downside, even to go and claim the $60,000 low from this pivot, that's the problem.

[00:14:38]That is the problem at the moment. Okay?

[00:14:41]Because yes, some people will look at the larger time frame and say, well, this is a one, two, one, two, and it's going to now start accelerating to the downside.

[00:14:50]I cannot count an impulse in that structure. I re unless someone in the community can share with me how you can count a high probable impulsive structure here to the downside. It just doesn't make sense to me. That one is fine. Perfect. Fivewave move to the downside. This one absolute mess. So I cannot count this as a 1 2 1 2 and now it's going to go 3 4 5 4 5.

[00:15:19]If it happens I will be waiting for the double bottom. Okay after the third wave is in. I want to see selling pressure increases. So if this scenario had to play out I will be very patient for a long over here. But I want to see price slice with a high amount of volume and then I want the lows to be taken again.

[00:15:38]And so if I'm wrong based on this structure, maybe it is an impulsive structure somehow, then I will just wait for the structure to unfold and I will benefit from the short that I'm in at the moment still.

[00:15:51]But for me from a technical perspective, okay, if I have to give scenarios, probabilities, it does look like whatever ended over here and where price is at the moment, it looks like either it's forming a larger three-wave structure, which means that that high is going to be claimed again because of this mess.

[00:16:20]That's what it's looking to me at the moment is that yes, price can still form a corrective structure. Great. Which means that high will still be claimed at some point. Great. Based on what is happening in that in this structure.

[00:16:39]Okay, it's very difficult because I I mean guys, I can go into the details from an Elliot wave perspective and I can go and explain to you well why does this high not make sense? Why does that high not make sense for an impulsive move to the downside? Okay, none of these two highs make sense for me.

[00:17:02]Okay, you wanted to see 1 2 3 4 5.

[00:17:06]didn't get the 345 since that pivot. So price fell and came back up. So in impulse here is invalidated. Then you have to consider contracting diagonals.

[00:17:21]Okay, that got invalidated. The fifth wave went too deep. Right? Okay. Can't consider a contracting diagonal. Now you have to consider expanding diagonals, which is rare, never preferred unless all other scenarios fail. I don't even look at expanding structures, okay? They It's just that's how low the probability is for an expanding structure because I know on some exchanges this is an expanding structure. On Binance, it's a contracting structure.

[00:17:49]Okay. And then you also have I think you have the issue of wave two and four. You also have an issue with wave two and four. On some exchanges it's longer, on some exchanges it's shorter. It's just it's a mess to count this as a diagonal.

[00:18:03]Whether it's expanding or contracting, it's an absolute mess. Exchanges don't align and then some of the rules are broken on one exchange and some of the rules are broken in another way on some other exchanges. So, I'm not even going to consider it.

[00:18:19]If price does want if price wants to continue to the downside, well, okay, I will look at the four fives and I will look for a long. It's as simple as that.

[00:18:30]Right. But based on what I'm seeing here on the Binance perpetual chart that I used to do my technical analysis, then I have to consider one two one two. And there's an issue. I can't I cannot count this as a 1 2 3 4 5. Okay. This the structure just doesn't make sense. I think the wave four is longer than wave two. It's just an absolute mess.

[00:18:51]Okay.

[00:18:53]Right. So what it does look what's happening here at the moment is that at some point okay the scenarios that are carrying higher probability for me at least from a technical perspective is that at some point this price needs to find the low very soon it needs to find a low over here it needs to find a low I don't see a high probability for a breakdown from this level and I want to see a bounce bounce. Okay, I want to see a bounce to the upside. Once price gets a bounce to the upside and it starts moving down again, that makes more sense to me. But based on the local structure, it looks like price needs to find a low soon and bounce.

[00:19:44]If it wants to continue, great. Okay, I'm looking for a long year, which I'll share at the moment where I'm looking for that long. If it wants to reject point of control, daily levels, wherever it wants to reject, it can form a three-wave structure. That looks more likely a three-wave structure. Whether it claims the high, whether it doesn't claim the high. This can be an A B C.

[00:20:04]This can be an A B C or a WXY.

[00:20:10]But I'm looking for a three-wave structure down. Okay, that to me looks more likely based on the current price action that I see at the moment. There's always the whatif scenario. What if price just starts accelerating to the downside? Well, then I will look for this mess down here.

[00:20:29]It is what it is. Okay, it's my whatif scenario. Maybe, you know, there's a fivewave structure in that move. And this is a 1 2 1 2 3. It starts accelerating 4 5 4 5. Well, once I see this, I know how to trade this structure. It's a beautiful structure to trade.

[00:20:50]Okay.

[00:20:53]So, let's bring it back here and look at this structure from the low to the high.

[00:20:58]So, from a simplicity perspective, without going into Elliot wave theory, when I take a fip from the low to the high, the first area that looks really interesting for bounce, well, you guessed it, okay, is this little zone over here. Now that zone for me looks very interesting for a possible bounce to get the bounce to the upside. Okay, to get the bounce to the upside. If it then wants to continue, great. Okay, and then you have a three-wave structure.

[00:21:31]Price forms a higher low and you potentially get continuation back to the upside. But I can take advantage of that move.

[00:21:39]Okay.

[00:21:41]So that is the first zone that I will pay attention to. Okay. Because I know in most cases when a large impulse is forming to the upside when the 0.382 is tapped for the first time, it usually at least gets a reaction.

[00:22:03]Okay? It usually gets a little bit of a reaction.

[00:22:07]And maybe it's going to, you know, it's going to reject there. There's a point of control over there that I'm keeping an eye on for a specific short. Okay, maybe that that's how high it's going to go. It's at the point of control. But I at least expect some sort of bounce in this zone because it looks like this structure needs to come to an end and at least give us a little bit more upwards momentum. If it wants to continue from here, great. Then you have a larger three-wave structure. Remember from a timing perspective, this low is still before the 0.382.

[00:22:44]Um, where's my extra fifth wave here to the upside?

[00:22:51]Okay, let's just quickly do that manually. Sorry guys, I'm getting lost here in my folders because I keep on drawing and I don't delete the stuff.

[00:22:57]Okay.

[00:22:59]Right. Above 82K is far now. Right. But you can see this low is still made before the 0.382.

[00:23:10]So if this structure is going to correct itself, it would make sense for that.

[00:23:18]Okay? Or it could be an A B C contracting diagonal. Uh D contracting diagonal.

[00:23:26]Okay. ABC takes the high, then it falls down and you have a flat corrective structure.

[00:23:32]So, I'm still looking for shorts above the high if price wants to take the high.

[00:23:39]But I'm also keeping an eye on this point of control.

[00:23:44]If price starts moving up from here, that to me is a shorting opportunity.

[00:23:48]It's just based on the reaction. I'll make a trading decision and that I'll share inside of the community if I do enter a fresh trade.

[00:23:56]Okay, remember guys, if you want to be part of the community, that's where myself and Andy and the coaches spend most of our time. Send me the word access. There's my telegram on Telegram and I'll send you the instructions on how to join the community.

[00:24:12]Okay, I am still in my Bibbit short tub. I've closed now just before the live stream, but I'm still in my swing trade on Tubbit as well, but I have shared it inside of the community. Okay, this one I'm just going to leave a little bit longer because I know that price has the chance for a three-wave structure to the downside. So, I'm going to leave this one a little bit, but I want to take a little bit more profits over here. I'm just going to take another 25% profits. That's what I wanted to do. I didn't take profits, but happy with the profits here so far. If it does form the ABC flat where price takes the high again, well, at least I will be stopped out with profits.

[00:24:52]Um, okay. Let me just make that bigger.

[00:24:56]Right. So, basically, if price comes back up, stops me out of my short, I will enter a fresh short and I will be stopped out with profits. That's what's important to me as a trader is if I'm wrong, I love to get stopped out with profits. But I don't call this trade wrong anymore because I've already made a significant amount of profits with this trade. Okay? And this is why I didn't enter this or enter this SFB late this morning, which I'll explain now because I wanted to be wrong and get stopped out with profits. Okay, I'll explain that trade in a moment.

[00:25:33]Massive bearish CVD forming here as price is grinding to the upside. So, if that low gets claimed again and that's where I'm going to dive into the local scenarios, right? So, just keeping it simple. Um, over here, guys. Um, let me take this out the way. Let me delete some stuff so I don't get lost. Okay, let's take everything out the way.

[00:25:54]Let's switch on all the levels just to make sure that you guys have all of your levels already marked out. Here's all my daily, weekly, monthly levels. So, basically on the weekly time frame, let me take it step by step. You can copy these levels. They are very easy to do yourself. Okay. On the weekly time frame, you can see here are all my dark orange is my weekly levels, okay? Where you have a weekly open and closed at at the same level. So there's a weekly, there's a weekly, and then we have a fresh weekly point of control that printed on Sunday. Okay, price is currently getting a reaction at this previous week point of control. So during that week, that where that's where the most amount of volume was traded. Then from a daily perspective, let's go to the daily time frame.

[00:26:45]Okay. Um there we go. Here's my daily levels from a daily perspective.

[00:26:55]Daily, untapped, daily, untapped, nothing in this zone. And then there's your first daily level. Okay, which will be an interesting bounce if price continues here to the downside. When I take a flip from the low to the high, you can see that this daily level has perfect confluence with the 0.8.

[00:27:16]Now, that to me is a really interesting long, but you can see where we got the reaction today is at the 0.7.

[00:27:23]Price tapped at 0.7 and had a reaction and I missed it. I was um busy with other things. Okay, so I missed it. I did point it out to the community as it was getting the bounce. So, I'm not sure if anyone did jump into that long because it did get some nice upwards momentum for a little scalp. Okay, your position should already be protected.

[00:27:41]You should have already taken profits and if price wants to continue to the downside, you should hopefully get stopped out with profits. Okay, that's why I didn't enter the trade because I want to be stopped out with profits. I don't want to expose myself to risk.

[00:27:55]I'll wait for another trade. Okay, but now this zone if price continues to the downside H. Okay. But what makes this zone so interesting is the following.

[00:28:13]If price continues here to the downside and it taps the 0.88, it can create a bounce, a nice bounce to the upside, form a lower high, and then fall back down. And then you get a larger three-wave structure. Remember, when price taps the 0.88 88. It increases the probabilities to take the low. It's not going to look great for the bulls if price taps the 0.88 to get a third wave to the upside.

[00:28:44]1 2 3 4 5, you know, go almost to 100K here to the upside. That to me doesn't make sense. Okay. Especially if price does tap the 0.88 88 together with the daily level. It would open up the door that perhaps this is part of a larger corrective structure. It either forms a lower high and continues or you get the A B C. But I don't expect continuation above the highs. Yes, a liquidity grab perfectly fine, but it needs to reject in the B flat target zone.

[00:29:20]Okay. And this is yeah I mean you you have your underbelly resistance.

[00:29:25]You can see how price struggled bounce lost it. It can come back for retest. So interesting shorting opportunity.

[00:29:32]Interesting shorting opportunity if price wants to continue to the upside and grab the because I see there's a lot of liquidity above the highs at the moment as people are you know they want to take part in the short. So liquidity is building up to the upside. So it's not easy guys. It it really is not easy, but it's it's it's about having your plan ready. So, I have my plan ready.

[00:29:54]Okay.

[00:29:57]I don't know if the low is in. I don't know. All I know is that if price continues to the downside, I'm looking for a long.

[00:30:10]If price bounces back to the upside, I'm looking for a short.

[00:30:17]Okay. And then it can continue and it can form a larger three-wave structure if price does not respect this area because it could also do this a larger three-wave structure, but I can still take advantage of that move, get stopped out with profits. So, it's it's just about how you manage your trade because it can still do this.

[00:30:38]If you managed your trade properly, you can still make money. Get stopped out at break even. Look for new short above.

[00:30:45]Okay, you still have two untapped daily levels which I will definitely pay attention to. So, if price does continue to the upside and I enter a fresh trade, I will let the community know.

[00:30:59]Okay? If Andy is is inside, he'll let the community know. If one of the coaches takes the trade, they'll let the community know. Okay? But I will let the comm sleeping, I will let the community know if I do enter a fresh trade.

[00:31:13]Right? So, it's never easy, but it's just for me, it's just about having my plan ready. And um right, so those are the daily levels. And I like to look at point of controls inside of this range.

[00:31:25]Well, there's only one there's only one damn point of control inside of this entire range over here.

[00:31:36]So if price moves up before it takes moves down, I'm looking for a short, okay? Because it could bounce. Remember the daily level over there, it could bounce. So it's just about day trading, guys. You're long, you're short, you're long, you're short. You It's just about day trading at the end of the day.

[00:31:55]Keeping an eye on your levels, entering with, for me at least, entering with great risk management, taking profits, protecting position, and you guys know the deal. So now on the 1 hour time frame, okay, price got the bounce at the 0.786. Now that is where I wanted to enter this morning, but I missed it.

[00:32:14]It's okay. I really, it really is okay.

[00:32:17]But that was the zone where I wanted to enter. Got a beautiful tap and it got momentum here to the upside. So if I did enter here and price falls down, it means I can be stopped out with profits.

[00:32:33]for me to attempt a long over here. It's not really my cup of tea. Yes, you can still to say, "Okay, well, it's bounced." Okay, maybe you just go in with less capital, right? You're at least targeting the naked point of control as a TP1. It could it could go higher. You never know. Okay, your risk toreward still makes sense. 2.76.

[00:32:57]Okay, I don't like it too much. Yes, definitely it can play out, but I missed it and I can be picky about my trades.

[00:33:07]Also, I see that massive bearish CVD that's currently building up as price is even falling here to the downside. I still see bearish CVD. I don't really want to long based on this mess at the moment.

[00:33:21]Unless price does this, okay, then because I want to be able to catch that.

[00:33:26]Yes, guys. And I am a bottom and a and a a a smelly finger catcher and I am a rocket shorter. It's part of my trading strategy and I can do it very successfully with great risk management.

[00:33:38]Okay. So if price does this sweeps the low and gets acceptance back above, yes, then I'll be interested.

[00:33:46]If price continues to the downside, this is the next zone that I'll be paying attention to. Okay, daily level 0.88 could definitely get a reactionary bounce to the upside.

[00:33:56]So now let's go through a couple of scenarios that is supported by Iliot wave theory.

[00:34:04]So looking at the structure that is formed um let's go through first scenario.

[00:34:14]Can the low be in? Yes the low the local low can be in in a W X ABC in a Y wave.

[00:34:24]And like I said guys, this is the reason I will consider a double bottom. This Y and C can still extend ever so slightly, but it looks like it needs to come to an end if the low is not in already. It looks like this needs to come to an end soon.

[00:34:40]Okay? Because this can be your 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 4 5. The low is either in or it grabs the liquidity once more. And then you have a C-wave here to the downside after which you at least expect a correction back up to go and tap minimum target of the 0.382.

[00:35:05]Okay. So if price gets a bounce 75% of the time at least the 0.382 is claimed. If price continues to move down slightly here to the downside I will just drag my fib down.

[00:35:21]Okay, but I have to analyze based on the price action I see in front of me right now. Okay. Right, legends, remember to smash up that like button if you do do enjoy the education. Okay, let me go through some more comments before we continue.

[00:35:38]Uh, let me do this.

[00:35:40]There we go. Right.

[00:35:45]What's up, bro? Mr. Crypto Big Brains in the house. Welcome to the live stream.

[00:35:49]Thursday will be correction. Thursday will be correction.

[00:35:55]Well, it looks like this is part of the correction already here at the moment.

[00:35:57]Good day, Mr. A trader. Always appreciate see you here. Let's go legends.

[00:36:03]Today SFP is 0. Yes, that is exactly where we got the SFP is at the 0.786.

[00:36:10]And like I said guys, if price does make a double bottom here, I will consider a long not as price is below the area of interest. I'm not interested, okay?

[00:36:21]Because I know it can still accelerate here to the downside. I mean also when I go into the local time frame, dare I say 1 minute time frame. Okay, there's a chance if I can see a 1 2 3 4 5 extended fifth wave. So that could be the end of the structure and price now continues to move up even with the bearish CVD area of interest for short is at that naked point of control that I've just highlighted or this is part of an A B C and price falls down in a 1 2 3 4 5 and then it makes that lower high. It gets acceptance back above the low. That is where I'm interested in the long. Not here. I'm not interested in the long over here. No. No. No longer. Okay. Now, unless you have Fibonacci levels to the downside where you can trigger the swing failure patterns, but that is for the more advanced traders or it's that 0.786 level a little bit further down. Uh, and you just need to put that fib back in.

[00:37:26]Is it this one? No. Right.

[00:37:31]Um, okay. Let's just mark that level out from the low to the high.

[00:37:40]The 0.88 is my red level. If I now zoom into the one minute time frame.

[00:37:47]Okay. So, what I'm basically trying to highlight is if price comes and sweeps the low again and it starts trading back above, I will be interested in a long.

[00:37:58]Here is no long for me unless price accelerates to the downside and I can treat this level as a swing failure level.

[00:38:06]So, two two local areas where I'll be interested in a long because I know that this can also still be part of a corrective structure and now it's going to continue to the downside or 1 2 3 4 5 is in extended fifth wave and now price continues back to the upside where I will be looking for a short.

[00:38:27]Okay, as simple as that I suppose, right? It's never easy in trading, but I mean guys, here here I am stuffing around on the one minute time frame.

[00:38:43]Okay, can take this out the way. Let's bring the comments back up.

[00:38:49]There we go.

[00:38:52]8 hour OB gold perfect reaction, but I missed it.

[00:38:58]Good morning, chartists. Have a great trading day. That must be Rudy. He likes to say chartists have a great trading day. Welcome Rudy. Rudy's also inside of our trading community. Great technical analyst, right? Nvidia earning in 20th going to pump all markets. We'll see.

[00:39:13]We'll see. Weekly naked point of control at 63. Okay. Coinbase devault. Um Coinbase. Let's go check it out.

[00:39:27]I know Coinbase had had that outage last week and that's why I didn't want to look at Coinbase specifically because there's data missing. Okay. So, the point of control for Coinbase could be a little bit skewed because they had that outage.

[00:39:42]But on the weekly time frame, how I get the point of controls is as such.

[00:39:49]Yeah, this point of control is much higher. $81,000 590 much higher. The point of control on Binance is $80,000 triple 7.

[00:40:08]So yes, it's a little bit different, but for for for this week, I trust the Binance chart a little bit more because I know there was an outage on Coinbase, so the volume could be skewed.

[00:40:20]Okay. But by all means, you can include both levels and watch your reaction at both levels.

[00:40:29]I'm just going to check something here.

[00:40:33]Right. Let's continue the comment section over here.

[00:40:40]Right. Thanks, Devil. Appreciate your efforts in explaining it clearly. Can you confirm the daily level you would consider for a long? The daily level is here at the 0.88.

[00:40:51]So I have to see a reaction.

[00:40:54]I have to see a reaction. It does look like this structure is coming to an end.

[00:40:58]Oh, and I need to take you through the Eliot wave scenarios. But if price falls down here, I want to see a reaction like that at this level.

[00:41:08]Trading above is a sign of strength.

[00:41:11]Trading below, mm- no trade.

[00:41:15]Okay, it's just based on my trading strategy. So, I cannot place a limit order here, close my eyes and hope for the best and then price does this. No, it's no, this is not a limit order trade for me. This is a reactionary trade. I want to see how price is going to react in that level.

[00:41:36]And that's just based on how I trade, my style of trading. I know when I'm looking for a swing trade where I where where I feel comfortable using limit orders. This one I don't feel comfortable using limit orders. I want I would rather set my alarms.

[00:41:56]Okay. I would rather set my alarms maybe one or two alarms just above that level so that they go off and you can be in front of your chart. So when my alarms go off I will come and pay attention before it hits the level. Okay, that's how I plan to trade this because what is interesting. Okay, I need to go back here onto the 1 hour. And I know guys, this is now really getting messy over here with all the levels. So, let me just switch this back off.

[00:42:31]Let's continue to go through the scenarios. What is interesting about the structure, and this is why I'm saying guys, it looks like it needs to start coming to an end. Okay, the the end is in sight for the structure. The low is either in and it continues back up up here and bearish EVD just start you know increasing even more compared to these highs. It rejects at the point of control maybe then it falls to the downside because that is also based on a couple of scenarios that I have. So I have a WXY that could be finished or it makes one more low like I've just explained. There's also the possibility for a ABC to the downside. Now, this one is really interesting because this one can either be done or it also needs to make one more low. Okay? Because in this A B C to the downside, I can see a 1 2 3 maybe it goes up for the four. It rejects at the point of control and it makes one more low and that's where it finds support and it gets the bounce back to the upside. And that's what I'm saying from a structural perspective. It looks like the low is either in or it makes one more low, but it needs a bounce back to the upside.

[00:43:45]Okay, for price to waterfall here to the downside is not high probability at the moment. It can happen. It just doesn't carry the highest probability. So, I'm expecting a bounce in the zone.

[00:44:02]Okay. And that's why I'm looking for a long, right? So in a ABC. Now what is interesting about this ABC, okay, is that it either needs one more low, which is basically the same as the WXY. Okay, there's also a WXY.

[00:44:20]We basically Okay, it's it's the it's the same outcome, different counts.

[00:44:27]A B C and a W. A B C WXY in a X and now price is forming an A B C or it's a diagonal 1 2 3 4 5 Can you guys see same rejection same long two different counts so I don't want to create confusion right so let's just focus on the diagonal this diagonal is interesting because if the low is in I can move three over there I can move five over there which means means the C-wave could be in. Okay. And then this was the end.

[00:45:04]That that's it. Number four is over there. And you still have your contracting diagonal to the downside. A B C.

[00:45:15]You get the bounce. Okay. It either and then basically looking for the shorts.

[00:45:22]So it's not an easy structure. It can be larger or it the low is in. Could also be that one.

[00:45:30]Not easy, but the the bounce needs to happen soon. And and then once the bounce happens, that's when the shorting opportunities becomes really interesting.

[00:45:41]Okay, let me I see we got a super chat.

[00:45:44]Let me just check this out.

[00:45:47]Right. Um Christian, thank you so much for the super chat. Why does B and Xwave end on the lower high of 11 May? 11 May.

[00:46:02]11 May.

[00:46:05]Um, it doesn't really matter. So, that's what I'm saying, guys. It's just how you count the internal structures. I can count a three-wave structure in a B. I can also count a three-wave structure in a B. So it doesn't really matter where you put the B or the X. It doesn't really matter the internal struct that you're looking for the outcome. What is the outcome over here? Whether I count this as a ABC or whether I count this as a ABC, it's the same outcome that I'm discussing at the moment. Okay. When I counted for me personally, when I counted the internal structures, it looks better for me to put the Bwave over there. And it's going to take me a while to dive into the internal structures to show you why, okay? Cuz this also looks like an ABC three-wave structure in a B. Okay?

[00:46:58]Anyways, guys, I'm not going to go through the details, but to make it easier, okay. Um, you can, it doesn't matter whether you move your B there or there. It doesn't matter. It's the same. It's the same.

[00:47:14]It's the This is the same. doesn't matter. Okay, just keeping it simple.

[00:47:18]That that that that doesn't really matter.

[00:47:22]Okay.

[00:47:25]Um it's just technically when I zoom into the smaller time frames for me it makes more sense to put it there.

[00:47:33]But whether I put it there or there is not impacting this structure.

[00:47:38]So I often say guys you know and it's it's a really good question. And I just don't have the time to dive into the detailed structure there on the smaller time frames because I need to end it off soon. Um, but it's the same as this structure. Okay, this little fivewave impulse here to the upside. Oh man, is there a debate on how you count all of these waves here in the inside? There's a massive debate amongst Ioticians. How on earth do you count it? Point is, that's the highest point. It's the end of a five. Doesn't matter how you count the mess inside, okay? Because I know on some exchanges, and this is where it even gets more confusing, on some exchanges that high got claimed by this high. So, you could move three over there. You could move five over there.

[00:48:26]That is your corrective structure for your wave four. But it doesn't matter where I move those counts, the outcome is still the same.

[00:48:36]Same outcome.

[00:48:38]Okay? So I often like to tell the people in the community, don't get obsessed about the internal structures. Don't get obsessed about it because in actual fact in Elliot wave theory, the key, the simplicity to everything is zoom out.

[00:48:56]Okay, you need to zoom out. And then let me switch this off.

[00:49:01]Okay, can you count on this higher time frames? Can you see a fivewave structure to the upside? That's basically what Iliot wave theory tells you. Okay, highest amount of volume was actually here. Highest amount of volume was actually here. So if I just look at volume, I can see, okay, there's a wave, right? Because wave 1 needs to be small.

[00:49:21]Highest amount of volume is inside of this structure. So let me make that a three. Lower amount of volume is in this high. So okay, let me make that a five.

[00:49:30]So I don't have to count the mess inside. I can just look at the structure and volume and I can see there's a 1 2 3 4 5 because you can spend hours okay dissecting the internal structures over here and you're going to get to the same outcome.

[00:49:51]Hope that makes sense.

[00:49:54]Okay. Devil the moon cycle guru.

[00:49:58]All legends are so nice.

[00:50:01]Devil the moon cycle guru. Yes. So, I mean, the bare moon is here, guys. The bare moon is definitely here, okay? And it's I know, guys, there's, you know, I know I I can just imagine the thumbnails that's going to pop out. Okay? [ __ ] has printed can just imagine the the thumbnails. [ __ ] has printed price is going to fall to the downside. Yes, it is a possibility.

[00:50:28]I'm not going to deny that it's a possibility.

[00:50:31]Does it carry the highest probability?

[00:50:34]No.

[00:50:36]Okay. And that's just got to do with the local structures. But now I can also preach to myself in terms of what I've just told everyone. Well, can this be a one two one two? Yes. Price has formed a lower high, a lower high, but then it needs to start accelerating to the downside and you want to see selling pressure increase.

[00:50:54]Then again on the higher time frame I will look at the volume because what could happen here is price does one two one two three okay volume increases that will be my clue and then price does this 4 5 4 5 like okay now I have the same mess over here then over there right okay so on the higher time frame I can see the most amount of volume is in that move and then volume does that It decreases as the low gets taken taken.

[00:51:29]Okay. Then you can get a correction back up pro provides a shorting opportunity.

[00:51:35]This becomes one that becomes two and price falls in a third wave.

[00:51:41]So I don't actually care whether I'm right or wrong. I know that when the structure reveals itself, I know how to trade it.

[00:51:52]Okay. I I think sometimes and maybe not in this community. I see I see sometimes when I read comments uh of people in other live streams, people are too obsessed about who's right and who's wrong. No, like the structure will show me what it wants to do and then I will trade the structure. If you are a trader that's trading with limit orders, okay, they are the people that care whether you're right or wrong because they're going to [ __ ] throw limit orders in here. They're going to maybe have their stop loss below the low. Okay, price does this and it continues and then they unsubscribe from the person's channel and they give hate inside of the comment section because you were wrong. It did not get the bounce. It did not form a three-wave structure because now they broke a hole in the whole portfolio because they're trying to look for that opportunity to long with the entire portfolio and then when they get stopped out and they blow up their account or they get liquidated, they have someone to blame.

[00:53:00]The reason I don't care which structure is going to play out or whether I'm right or wrong, where I'm looking for my shorts or in my longs, is that I can make a trading decision when price gets there. And most often when I'm wrong, I still get stopped out with profits. And then the structure reveals itself and I'm like, okay, I got maybe I get stopped out over here because price just falls to the downside. And then it does this. And then I update the community to say, "Guys, looking for a long, looking for a long and price bounces back to the upside." But there's no ways, okay, you will see myself or Andy liquidate our accounts.

[00:53:38]My technical analysis might not be the best, but I can tell you now, it's risk management that keeps me in the game because if I'm wrong, it's about how little I can lose. And then I wait for the structure to reveal itself and then it pro provides the next trading opportunity.

[00:53:52]Because without going into the why that structure does not work as an impulse to the downside, if it had to play out in a 1 2 1 2 and it start accelerating in a 3 4 5 4 5 which based on that structure carries the low carries low probability.

[00:54:10]Okay.

[00:54:13]But I cannot be that trader that just says okay I've listened to this YouTube influencer.

[00:54:20]He thinks that there's a higher probability to get the bounce to the upside. So, I'm going to long with my entire portfolio over here and then I'm going to start taking profits when price hits resistance again. No. Why? Why are you doing that? I will not put all of my trust in a any YouTube influencer.

[00:54:42]Okay. Does it align with your analysis?

[00:54:44]Do you have a clear invalidation? Did you apply proper risk management? Do you know exactly where to take profits? Can you be wrong and get stopped out with profits? There's many things that you need to answer as a technical trader.

[00:54:56]And don't let anyone scare you out of your trade or force you to enter something that doesn't make sense to you. Okay?

[00:55:08]Sorry guys, that's just my little rant.

[00:55:10]But I have seen people, okay, that don't know how to do technical analysis and they are too lazy to go and study and to apply proper risk management principles and to have a trading journal and learn from their trading mistakes. And then I see them post hate on other people's um in the comment sections because they don't know what they're doing and the influencer was wrong.

[00:55:33]>> Anyways, you must do you at the end of the day, right?

[00:55:38]Anyways guys, let's let's continue. I've had my r my rant for the day. Right, but thanks for the super chat, Christian. I really appreciate it. And um maybe inside of the community, I'm not sure Christian, if you are inside of the community, maybe inside of the community, I will share with people why I placed my B at that high. Okay.

[00:56:00]Right. Devil the Moonface Guru, let's go some show some love by hitting that like button. Mark Dutch, welcome to the live stream. Subscribe to the channel. Join the telegram. Yes, yes, yes. Are there any videos that you recommend me to watch that you have? I do have a trading course. You can keep on following me on YouTube because there's always nuggets that I drop here on YouTube as well.

[00:56:24]Okay. But I do have a full trading course and um yeah, that's that's basically it. Right.

[00:56:32]I've just subscribed. I'm new to trading and I'm loving this stream. It makes so much sense compared to what I've watched in the past few weeks. Mr. 4807.

[00:56:43]Yeah. I mean, it's it's not everyone's cup of tea. I know that. Okay. It's because I think most people when they start out, they are looking for signals.

[00:56:52]They are looking for a YouTube influencer to tell them where they can long and short so that they can make money.

[00:57:00]And what those people don't like about these you YouTube live streams is that I show my area of interest and then in the community based on the reaction I will make a trading decision and post it whether I've entered or not and you know the why did I enter the trade where is my risk management where do I plan to take profits and not a lot of people like that I know not a lot of people like that but for the people that are serious about trading that are serious about their risk management that wants to be successful in this long term.

[00:57:35]This is the channel myself and Andy I think do a great job in terms of educating. Okay. Um let's go legends. 100 likes reached. That's absolutely amazing. Did I like my own live stream over here? Yes, I did. I did like my live. But guys, if you do want to be part of the community, send me the word access. There's my telegram and I'll send you the instructions on how you can be part of the community.

[00:58:00]There's a couple of options to get in.

[00:58:03]You can either sign up with one of my affiliate partners, make a minimum deposit, it's your money to trade with.

[00:58:09]You get access into the community, two months for free. You could pay a monthly subscription. You could pay one a lifetime access fee. Um there's many ways to get in, but I'll send you the instructions, okay, to get into the community because that's where the action happens, okay? There's no trade for me here at the moment. Once the trade becomes available based on the reaction, that's where I'll post it inside of the community. Okay? And I'm sharing from an education perspective because I believe the best way you can learn to do this yourself is by seeing how someone else does it, which is me and Andy at the end of the day. But like I said guys, as per the disclaimer, I'm just a crazy dude sharing with you how I trade, how I make money from the markets, and how I scratch my dollars from the market.

[00:58:55]Right. Um, I've been in the community for two weeks and I must say that it is unbelievable. Lots of info and different views on the market. It's the place to be if you want to learn and trade responsibly. Thank you so much. I really appre appreciate the kind words. I must say our community is a group of serious traders, people that really want to that that that are committed to taking this game seriously.

[00:59:23]They know that there's a lot of work that needs to be put in. Journaling, risk management, market psychology, mastering the tuck between fear and greed. There's many. If you want to make this long-term sustainable and successful, our community, I think, is one of the best communities. But I think the problem with a lot of retail people out there is that they want to make money now. Money is the goal. Okay? I want to know where this person is entering a trade so I can take the trade as well. They don't want to learn how to do it. They're too lazy.

[00:59:57]Okay? Then you're going to struggle in in my community, in myself and Andy's community, you're going to struggle.

[01:00:04]Okay? Um you can still enter the trades that I'm that I'm showing that I'm entering, but if you don't know the why and you don't know where to place your stop loss and you don't know where to take profits, you could enter. And I've seen this before, guys. I will post a trade that I'm entering.

[01:00:23]This happens many times.

[01:00:26]Some people make money, some people break even, and some people lose money.

[01:00:33]And we all entered the exact same trade.

[01:00:36]And you always get three outcomes. Some make money, some break even, and some people lose money with the exact same trade. And that's where the experience comes from. The experienced traders most probably made money.

[01:00:50]The people that just entered for the sake of entering, but they still had a grasp on their risk management will most likely break um even. And the people that just entered for the sake of you entered and they don't know why. They don't know where to put they don't know where to take profit, they will get stopped out with a loss or worst case scenario get liquidated. Hopefully that doesn't happen inside of our community.

[01:01:12]Okay. Not that I've seen. Right, devil.

[01:01:16]I wouldn't long before 75Kish.

[01:01:19]Yeah, that's 75Kish.

[01:01:21]Where's that 75? Ooh, that's Oh, you're basically at SFP from the low. That is a very interesting level. Swing failure from the low. So, I must say on the larger structure, okay, when I take this Whoops.

[01:01:36]Simple simple technical analysis.

[01:01:40]when I look at that. Okay, let me just take my alarms here out the way. How do I delete these things? Okay, here we go.

[01:01:46]Delete.

[01:01:49]Um, come on. Hello. Delete. Right.

[01:01:55]Let me put the prices back on. I like to trade without the prices, but I like I know people like to see the prices at the levels. Okay. So, there are two very interesting areas of confluence over here. Okay. If I take now FIP looking at this structure.

[01:02:12]So remember that first and that daily level. If I switch on that. Okay, I'm not going to switch it on. I'm just going to make the chart look messy. My first area of interest is here.

[01:02:22]Okay. With high confluence 0.80.3 line. There's also a daily level. If price sweeps those lows, it can get momentum to the upside. Remember, I'm looking for a day trade. I want to get in. I want to get out. That's it. leave a runner for if price wants to continue to the upside and form an ABC flat.

[01:02:43]Okay, that's the one scenario that I am looking at. But that level that you've highlighted 75K, okay, also has confluence with these lows 0.5.

[01:02:56]So if price slices through the level, there's no trade for me, it's below my area of interest, then I will always consider a swing failure from the lows.

[01:03:04]Okay?

[01:03:06]But I want it to tap my level. If I just want to see if there's not maybe another level over there. There could be a fib extension level there. Okay. Where you have another daily level.

[01:03:20]So definitely area of interest.

[01:03:24]Area of interest. Area of interest. So you can see it's a lot of zones that I'm keeping an eye on. And I can be wrong here. I can be wrong here. And I can catch this one.

[01:03:36]And I can be stopped out twice with profits if I'm wrong. If you know how to enter those trades, the reaction, worst case scenario is I get stopped out twice with a small little loss. But then this one pays back those two stop losses plus more.

[01:03:57]But that one does look interesting. This daily level is exactly at the 0.5.

[01:04:02]Okay? Because remember, you might not get this level because you could be a trader that says, "I'm waiting for 75K.

[01:04:08]I'm waiting for that SFP from the low."

[01:04:11]Okay? And then price does this.

[01:04:16]Damn it. Then price comes back down.

[01:04:19]Okay? Then you it has a higher chance to break down further because in a larger three-wave structure, this leg can accelerate to the downside. So this well that trade becomes higher risk.

[01:04:33]But definitely guys, I always just pay attention to my levels. 0.5 0.382 0.8 alignment with a daily level. First area of interest. If price loses the low, then I want to see a bounce on the daily level.

[01:04:49]Okay, but this zone definitely very interesting for a long because I also know that the structure needs to come to an end and at least get a bounce back to the upside. Okay, the probabilities unfortunately for the bears the probabilities is not high to just waterfall to the downside because of that local structure 1 2 1 2 3 4 5 4 5 now this structure basically looks like the lowest probable structure at the moment because of that.

[01:05:19]So I'm looking for a bounce. Question is where's it going to bounce? Was that the low at the 786 or is it going to bounce over here?

[01:05:27]I must say guys, just to put it simple, it needs to bounce there or there.

[01:05:32]That's it. That's what those are the two levels that I'm interested in just to keep it simple.

[01:05:41]Right, legends?

[01:05:43]I have unfortunately run out of time.

[01:05:46]Thank you so much for joining the live stream, smashing up that like button.

[01:05:50]Remember, if you want to be part of the community, send me the word access on Telegram. It's the first link down below. I'll send you the instructions on how to join. Okay. How did you decide to hold that short and where did you teed and what percentage? Um well I have two shorts at the moment. I have the bot the bluffen short that I'm in at the moment and I mean guys there there was a whole live stream and analysis based on this high over here where I entered. Okay. I did post it inside of the community.

[01:06:18]That was the one toone extension from a loarithmic perspective. So, if you want to know why I entered over here, remember trading for me has three W's, okay? I'm staying a little bit longer because I love to educate.

[01:06:32]Always, always when I enter a trade, there's three W's.

[01:06:37]Why am I entering? Where is my stop loss? And where do I plan to take profits? I have to answer those three W's. This short was based on the following. Okay, for those of you that don't remember and are asking the question. So, let me take the drawings here out the way. If I go, okay, I'm already on the 8 hour. That's fine, right? I love trendbased fib extensions and I trade them very successfully.

[01:07:07]Okay, and I do this and I do this, right?

[01:07:15]And I switch my chart to lock meithmic.

[01:07:18]that that was basically the plan that I shared. I'm looking for a short here.

[01:07:26]Okay. I'm also looking for the structure to come to an end in a fivewave structure.

[01:07:33]1 2 3 4 5. Inside of that structure, I think Andy also did analysis on this structure where he counted an ending diagonal if I'm not mistaken. Inside of this last move, it had a clear invalidation.

[01:07:47]Okay. And that was why I entered end of a fivewave impulse. End of an ending diagonal inside of the local structure one to one ex. So the the more wise I have the better. Why are you entering one to one extension ending diagonal end of the fivewave structure price is hitting a consolidation area from a resistance perspective. So I had my Y and that is why I entered.

[01:08:14]Okay. Where is my stop loss? Above the high. It was as simple as that. It it rejects stop stop loss goes above the high. So I already have my W's from a risk management perspective. And why am I entering the trade? And then I told everyone where I will take my first profits is here. Well, not my first first profits. As you all know, when price falls to the downside, I'll already take profits to protect my position and my stop loss. So that if price continues, I still want to get stopped out with profits. Okay, but my first major TP area actually got hit over the weekend, which was Yeah, I told everyone if price moves down and it hits this zone, that's where I'm planning to take some profits.

[01:09:00]Okay, I got lucky this morning. I didn't check the chart over the weekends and price was over here and now I've taken some more profits live here inside of the live stream. But I'm targeting this low. That that that was the initial idea for me with this trade is to say that well that short I am targeting that pivot because if this is a 1 2 3 4 5 7% of the time your correction at least eats the fourth wave over here and that's where I will take majority of the profits and then I'll leave a runner.

[01:09:36]That's it.

[01:09:38]Okay. So, I've already taken $8,000 profit.

[01:09:44]I'm take I'm I'm I'm I'm leaving this trade for that pivot over there. Was it that one? Okay, you guys get the deal.

[01:09:51]I've explained it. Now, if I get stopped out, I still get stopped out with profits. That's just how I like to trade. And then I will look for the B flat on top. Okay?

[01:10:01]Because remember, we have discussed the B flat on top. Okay? A B C. I get stopped out of the trade with profits.

[01:10:09]But I have highlighted this zone for potential short specific levels that I'll keep an eye on. The most interesting level is that one range high SFP.

[01:10:25]Right, legends, now I have run out of time. Have yourselves an amazing trading day. I'll see you all again tomorrow, either with a video update or a live stream. Remember to smash up that like button, hit subscribe if you're not already a subscriber, and until the next one, cheers for now.