The Bitcoin Bullish Case vs. The BTC Bearish Case - You Decide

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:04]I I made a video a few videos back and I I I presented the bullish case for Bitcoin. If we're going to get a bigger bare market rally right now, certain things have to happen. You got to get above the 200, stay above it. You got to move into the positive region of the uh channel. We've done that, but we're stilling at the 200. You're forming negative divergences. And then we got to flip these these uh trending signals in the weekly time frame back to bullish here. the signal turned bearish the week of the top. Right as the day of the top was happening, I started getting warning signs on some of my daily and weekly signals. This was one of them. Uh then the bar flipped to red after we began to reverse off of the highs. Have been red ever since. Now we're trying to flip back to bullish here. Can we be successful? Or if even if it is successful, can it stay that way? Will it just turn bullish briefly and then flip right back to bearish like back over here in the consolidation uh the pullbacks during the uptrend?

[00:01:02]I'm going to be watching how we close out on the Sunday. If we sell off on Bitcoin on Sunday, this signal can completely go away and we could get rejection over here. We tried to turn bullish at the line right there and it went away uh as we got rejection at that level. and we're at that 200 period uh just as we were back over here the 200 period on the daily chart now seen here this is the weekly chart I'm going to be watching does this signal go away by Sunday or do we get it by Sunday and does it uh we see everything flip to bullish somehow canceling out all these bearish divergences it's more likely we're going to get rejection here and I think it's more likely this is suggesting a peak is forming here just as it formed back over here. Even if the signal does turn bullish, it's got to stay that way. We can't just have it turn bullish and revert right back to bearish. Going to get a bigger rally.

[00:01:56]Please support the channel. Please support the channel with the link directly below. That allows me to be able to provide you this information.

[00:02:03]You like my charts and you will. If you like my indicators and you will support the channel, just ask that you do that rather than have sponsors turn those offers down. But I need to hear from you. I don't know about you, but my signals have really helped me. If they've helped you, please take a moment when you finish watching the video to follow the link below. Support the channel. Anything helps. Let me know you want me to do these videos. I thank you for your consideration for that. Again, critical mass rainbow cloud. There's still bears bars trying to f turn to to blue here. But clear this level things if we're going to get a bigger bare market rally right now. You got to see the bounce of power go positive. So, uh we're not there yet. get rejection right here at this level and at that 200 period in the daily time frame here back in the bare market in 2022. We rallied up here to the rainbow cloud again. You couldn't flip the uh critical mass critical mass line remained bearish and you saw the bottom fall out of Bitcoin right after that.

[00:03:03]That's why I talked about that in my last update. that possibility.

[00:03:08]The same thing here. This is the chart I showed you a while back. Again, uh if trying to flip bullish this week, we'll see how it closes by Sunday, but if we start selling off by Sunday, it might get cancelled out. Throughout the bare market, we stayed bearish here the entire time until it ended. Uh we don't have to have it play out that exact same way, but I wouldn't rule it out. But here, we turned bearish the week after the top. Bars have been bearish ever since up until now. this week right here. So, watching how we close and if we do close positive again, you got to stay that way. You can't just revert right back to bearish signals.

[00:03:44]Otherwise, it's just a counter trend peak. But going to be watching the weekly closes here for Sunday. Going to be watching the 200 period moving average. Certain things have to happen if we're going to try to go higher, get rejection at these levels. The risk is we're going back down to take out 60,000 and we could take it out and resume the sell off. I've had other signals turn bullish in the weekly time frame.

[00:04:10]Looking more at these bigger trending signals, but as I've said, I've had some signals turn bullish, but I was looking at those bigger trend signals in here.

[00:04:19]Uh got uh the bounce here, the warning sign for the bounce, which flipped the signal. Well, we had that over here too in this bare market rally right here.

[00:04:26]So, just going to be watching this closely to see what happens surrounding the 200 and the daily time frame. And again, the 50 period, this is the 50 period moving average, 50week moving average is still bearish. It's still pointing down.

[00:04:40]We were finding support at it. And now we're holding below it in a 50/50 sell signal.

[00:04:47]And again, similar here. You know, I've seen momentum signals turn bullish and the momentum line and the bars are back to green, but we're still on sell signals here. It hasn't changed. Bigger trend is still bearish. The momentum is up. That's where we're at right now. So, for a bigger move higher, we got to clear that 200 period moving average.

[00:05:09]Rejection at it would be a sign of weakness. Now, same thing here. I have no bottoming signal again. I'm seeing bars turn back to green. I've got a momentum signal turning bullish here.

[00:05:20]Well, I had momentum signals turning bullish here, but they were cancelled out and we resumed the sell-off. Uh, I've had a major topping signal back over here.

[00:05:31]I have no I have no major bottoming signal here. I got one over here. I don't have one here.

[00:05:38]Warned you I didn't have one at 80,000 either. I don't have one at 60,000. I have a momentum bullish signal, but no major bottom signal here. Again, this is either a miniature relief rally or maybe it's the bigger bare market rally, then it's just feeble. It's more feeble than the last one we had in 2022, just under 38% whereas that one was 46%. Now, if we turn here in the weekly time frame and we start seeing another one of these signals or another one of these signals here, a minor signal or a major signal, then again, look out below.

[00:06:15]So, I wanted to touch on these weekly charts with you, but I still think it's likely we're going to get rejection around the 200 period moving average if the divergences are confirmed the signals to bearish. If the momentum signals are confirmed, flipping the trending signals to bearish.

[00:06:33]watching this 200 period moving average very closely. We rallied right up to it and we got a topping tail and it got confirmation the next session right here and we had the red bar down. Now we're bouncing back up. Watching to see if this high is going to hold. But in order for that topping tail to mean anything, you have to get the confirmation. Not only do you have the confirmation, but you've got to get the follow through. We don't have that yet. So, I told you in my last update, it's still possible we might flirt with this 200 period a little bit more if signals don't turn back to bearish. We've had momentum signals turn bearish here and that's given us a selloff so far off of about 82 the 82 83,000 area.

[00:07:20]As I said back over here, we turned off 79,000. we had to break the 7475,000 area uh to turn start flipping signals to bearish. We didn't do that and we turned back up. Had a couple of signals turn bearish. They reverted right back to bullish. So, same thing here. We've got to see the trending signals, my signals, which are correct, turn back to bearish if that move is the top here for a another lower high. if the counter trend rally is done or possibly a more feeble bare market rally of just under 38% with rejection at the 200 period moving average. And as I've said, listen carefully. Listen carefully. Are you listening? We still may end up trying to tag that 200 period moving average. So we may test this level if signals don't immediately confirm this. Right, Scott?

[00:08:12]Did you just hear what I just said? We still may test the 200 period moving average. My signals have to turn back to bullish to validate the shift in momentum. So far the shift in momentum with the momentum signals uh uh has just given us a pullback. Got to see it validated by the trending signals.

[00:08:32]Have a rising wedge right here. Again, you're rallying into a declining 200 period moving average. So if we're getting a lower high, do we get a lower low? Then do we break down from the rising wedge? Do we start seeing signals begin to flip? is the Bitcoin daily chart. Now, we've got divergences all over the place. Rate of change, RSI, RSI moved higher than the previous peak.

[00:08:57]Still might get a divergence right here and try to move above that high and again flirt with that 200 period moving average, but you've got these divergences on the rate of change and it's all over the place. Multiple point divergences here. You've got it divergence developing on the MACD stochastic money flow. You've got it here on the histogram down over here.

[00:09:17]Multiple point diversion. So, you got diver diversions galore uh on Bitcoin.

[00:09:23]Got a really good shot. We're going to get rejection here off the 200 period moving average. But again, order for that to happen, we got to see my signals begin to turn back to bearish.

[00:09:35]There are a lot of compelling warning signs. And again, you have indicators at extremes forming here a triple divergence. Uh and again the extremes or diversions is at extremes have marked tops and bottoms but it's it's all over the place on the daily chart. And again in order for those diversions to divergences to be validated we have to see my signals which are correct turn back to bearish. Can clearly see the diversions is here in the most recent price action here. We got to drop back below the line there and two signals move back into the negative region.

[00:10:14]They've done a very good job of validating the top and the sell-offs.

[00:10:19]The rebound back up. Bars turned back to blue. Signals went back into the positive region over here. Some choppiness back and forth a little bit and then signals turned back to bullish here and m oscillators turned back to bullish and again bars turn back to blue. So, they've done a very good job throughout the decline, remaining in the negative region, consistently in the negative region while the price dropped and pushing back into positive territory rally. But right now, you've got these divergences. So, the question is they play out. If we get a lower high, uh you could have a little miniature wave 1 and two starting here in a little microwave if we start pushing down sharply towards the lower boundary of the bare flag. Not seen here.

[00:11:06]Now here I'm looking at volume. We have a potential warning here that we could see something like what we had back over here and here at the top and some of it back over here in January at the top of January 14th. And again, oscillators got to go uh bearish turn bearish turn uh into the negative region. We got to see the bars flip back to red if we're going to start seeing heavy distribution again at the 200 period moving average.

[00:11:38]Now, I had I had some warning signs.

[00:11:39]Momentum was about to shift. So far, that's just given us a pullback off of the 200. We still may flirt. Listen to me. Are you listening? We still may flirt with this area if the RSI ends up trying to form a divergence with the 200 period moving average. Other indicators have simple and triple divergences already. Again, if the top is in here, we've got to see my signals turn. So far, my trending signals are still bullish. I don't have a warning sign here yet, but I've got it on other signals. But so far, it's just given us a pullback off of the 200 period moving average. Got the signals right here, but it just gave us a pullback. Again, let me repeat. My signals didn't turn back to bearish there. As I warned you, they had to taking out 7475,000 here. They've got to turn back to bearish as well. The momentum signals are to play out, which so far it's just given us a pullback off of the 200 so far. Got to see my signals, which are correct, turn back to bearish. If that is it, if we still flirt with this area a little bit more, you might get another reference point on indicators for divergence. Maybe the RSI forms one. We'll see. RSI doesn't have one. Other indicators do. We didn't reach the 50% retracement at 87,000 of this move right here. So again, you got to ask yourself, is the bare market rally over? You know, do we come back and then go back up and hit the 50% or 61.8 Fibonacci or do we have a weaker bare market rally? We we're going to see the bottom begin to fall out on Bitcoin. Or has it not happened yet? we go down, as I said, to, you know, 49,000, 55,000, something like that, and then get a bigger bare market rally for Bitcoin. We'll see how it plays out. Got warning signs, but you got to flip my signals back to bearish.

[00:13:28]Over here, I had warning signs at the January 14th peak, and it was validated.

[00:13:33]So far back here with this sell-off at 79,000, it wasn't validated. And here, so far, it's not been validated. the shift in momentum uh that I've warned you about. Got to see it turn my signals back to bearish.

[00:13:48]And let me just say, I made a video about the bullish case for Bitcoin a few videos back. And I talked about having to get above the 200, stay above the midpoint here, the weekly signals to bullish, and then remain that way, not just have them flip back to bearish.

[00:14:03]Then Bitcoin could get a bigger move higher. But right now, we're stalling at the 200 period with bearish divergences.

[00:14:10]that scenario becomes less likely. But we are seeing my weekly signals trying to turn bullish this week. Will they close out that way by Sunday's close?

[00:14:19]We're in the Sunday session right now.

[00:14:20]If we sell off by Sunday, then then that signal will be cancelled out. But they're trying to do it with this rally into our 200 period moving average. And again here, you got to take out 77 78,000 right here. 78,000. You But a lot of my signals 77 78,000. Other ones are a little bit lower. uh 75 76,000 uh if we're going to see a turn again. Here's 78,000. Got to take out 78,000.

[00:14:52]We had momentum warning signs, momentum warning signs here, but so far it's just giving us a pullback. You got to see the trending signals like right here. The bars turned back to red. Previously, this was a signal that did turn bearish, but it reverted right back to bullish.

[00:15:06]one of the few signals that did turn bearish and then we got to again drop back below the midpoint of the channel getting clear rejection off the 200 by flipping signals to bearish if the divergences are to play out if the momentum is to be validated again got another warning sign right here for momentum last uh momentum warning signs it only gave us a pullback we couldn't flip the signals again you got to take them out right here. Again, Bitcoin takes out the 78,000 or or the mid78,000 area. Uh then you'll flip the signal to bearish. Again, some of the signals just mark short-term price fluctuations. Others mark turning points like over here in January or over back up at the top in the August peak. Some of these bottoms that developed here, they just mark counter trends. And if this is just a counter trend, we got to be able to get above that 200 period.

[00:16:04]Stay above it. But with the bearish diversions is you got a good shot that these momentum signals are going to play out.

[00:16:12]I warned you after we had the peak over here that we're coming down. We found support at the support zone and we started seeing my signals all began to turn back to bullish. I told you we're going to go back and test this high for a lower high or higher high. I say in every single video, these things could take a whole lot longer than we all think. The counter trends, the topping process, the bottoming process, the pullbacks in an uptrend. These things can always take longer than we all think. I told you we were going to get the rally back on the fifth and sixth. I told you we were going to go to the 79 to 80 or 74 to 80,000 area. But I've told you all the way it could take longer than we all think. So, what would be bearish here is dropping back below the midpoint of the channel and getting rejection off the 200 and then flipping my signals all back to bearish. As I'm making this video on Saturday, we haven't had the Iranians respond to the US proposal yet. If they if they continue to try to string the United States along again, there could be a very negative reaction to that in the markets. The conventional wisdom is, oh, we're going to have this Iranian deal and markets are going to go higher and oil is going to go lower. And again, the complete opposite to what the herd believes is likely going to be the case.

[00:17:26]See combat operations resume. But as I've said in my Ron Walker video over the weekend, Trump's going to be visiting China. So, he may wait until after that visit next weekend before he makes a decision trying to hopefully he'so hoping uh uh that China's president will put pressure on Iran to make a deal. I don't think Trump's going to be able to get a deal. So again, I'll be watching what happens surrounding our 200 period moving average.

[00:17:53]But if Bitcoin sets up a lower high below the topping tail here and we start turning down, breaking 77,000 78,000, you're going to see a lot of my signals turn back to bearish. That will confirm the momentum shift. That will confirm a rejection off of the 200 period moving average as well. We did get warning signs at our recent high here with the uh with the May 6th peak.

[00:18:20]We got warning signs on May 5th and 6th.

[00:18:24]The trading signals are still bullish.

[00:18:32]Got a reversal signal on the 7th right after the topping tail at the 200.

[00:18:39]Sometimes they play out immediately.

[00:18:40]Other times they go a little higher.

[00:18:42]Sometimes you get backtoback signals like we did back in January.

[00:18:46]So, while I've had momentum signals turn, I have to see my trending signals turn back to bearish if they're going to uh if it's going to be validated. Okay.

[00:18:54]Got warning signs all over the place on my indicators with the momentum shifting. So far, it's just given us a pullback here. We got to take out 77,000 to flip the signal back to bearish. It did mark the January peak. It marked the top. Uh some of these other signals mark these counter trend rallies. Last one we got only marked a pullback. So again uh we need to see confirmation with the trending signals validating the momentum the warning momentum warning signs here and the rejection so far of the 200 period moving average.

[00:19:31]Got a major warning sign right here. We have one over here but again it couldn't flip the signals. Turned back up here.

[00:19:38]Now, we've got another warning sign right here. Got to flip the bars back to bearish. You got to start flipping the trending signals back to bearish. This is a momentum warning right here. Again, had a bunch of momentum warning signs.

[00:19:52]Got to flip the trending signals to validate it right here. We got a good good solid push right now below 78 and 79,000 here.

[00:20:02]Dropping below 78,000. You can go see a lot of my signals starting to turn back to bearish and then 77,000 under that.

[00:20:09]Now, I did get a new momentum signal here on the Saturday session that we just finished. I got a new momentum signal there. Uh so got another one again marked the top beautifully marked we got it just after the January peak of again. Do these momentum signals flip my trending signals to bearish? So far they have not. We'll see a point. But if the stock market plays catch-up to Bitcoin, could Bitcoin get something like this where it gets a drop, a rebound, and another big drop, you know, going on into, like I said, going on into October. And I talked about this dragging out, dragging out on into October for our one-year bare market, which is part of the 4year cycle. So again, throwing it out there, not saying it's necessarily going to play out that way, but it's sure something worth thinking through, something worth considering, something worth watching.

[00:21:04]Uh if this is uh going to play out the same way, and I talked about, remember, uh that we've dropped 52%, we've dropped 52%, the exact same amount. That's how I predicted the selloff. I predicted it because I uh told you the the bare markets usually kick off with a 50% plus crash. And the last one was 52%. That's why I predicted 60 to 63,000 minimum objective target. And we're rallying back up. If we're doing the same thing we did before, then the next leg down would be a 68% drop. That would take us down towards 25,000. What's 25,000? An 80% drop from the top. What are the bare markets for Bitcoin? 80 to 90%. So again, just something worth pondering, something worth considering. Now, this is the linear scaling and this is what we did the last bare market. You dropped 52%, you got a bare market rally to the 200 and then you saw the bottom fall out of Bitcoin and you dropped 68%. And again, like I said, I think uh there's a really good chance you're going to get a 90 plus% drop on Bitcoin. I think you're going to that's, you know, 12,000 13,000 or so 90% drop. Why do I think that?

[00:22:18]Because this bare market is going to be associated with a very bad recession.

[00:22:23]a doc burst uh a bursting of the bubble, a.com style uh bubble bursting with the stock market and a banking crisis.

[00:22:33]Bitcoin's never experienced any of these things. So, I think it's very likely we're going to see this happen. But again, this could be the new long-term channel. And as I sit back over here when we expanded the last channel, when we expanded the last channel, I said the moonboy has better pray I'm wrong about going down here to my 60,000 target level because the the channel was expanding and I was right. Could the channel be expanding again? Channels expand all the time, especially with Bitcoin. Uh but uh again, I'm just watching what happens here at the 200 period. A little hard to see, but the black line and our downward trend line right there uh getting rejection at the 200. If I just remove it, you can see it there. Uh we've stalled there and got a topping tail at the 200 period moving average. That's what we did in 2022. And back in every back in 2022 when we got the bare market rally, everybody believed. Here it is. Here it is right here. 2022, everybody believed it was over. These are the people. Remember back when we had the diversions up at the top on Bitcoin, they told us Bitcoin was never dropping below 60,000 again.

[00:23:36]Remember? Remember that? He had all the crazy targets and plan B out there with his crazy target. I told you that was one of my warning signs at the top. Plan B coming out with another crazy target for Bitcoin. Usually when he gets super super super bullish, coming out with super crazy targets. Uh that's about the time Bitcoin tops. We did the same thing here. 52% drop, 68% drop. If we drop 68%, you're going down 80% of Bitcoin down to about 25,000. Here, uh, we had the bare flag and we saw the bottom fall out of Bitcoin, rallied up, and then we dropped down lower. Eventually, you form divergences in the uh, weekly time frame and it marked a bottom.

[00:24:22]Talked about all this in my last update.

[00:24:26]Now, that was that was the linear scaling. What about the log scaling?

[00:24:29]I've talked to you about this support area in here between 49,000 which was again the support. We had had the Bitcoin ETFs launched. We broke out and we pulled back. This is the support area. This 49,000 area uh 49,000 to the 55,000 area or so. 55,000 area. This is a daily. But if we exclude the shadows and the weekly time frame, you've got the support range. And again, we were just above it in the just above the in the upper end of this trading range here uh at 60,000. Now, most people most people in uh that trade Bitcoin and and crypto, they only look at the linear scaling. I look at the log and the linear scaling because you find you find important information. You find important information with both. And talked about the linear scaling last time. What about the log scaling? If the bare flag plays out, uh could we end up forming a larger inverse head and shoulders pattern and still get that larger bare market rally I talked about?

[00:25:29]Uh maybe higher than than uh what what's previously been the norm for Bitcoin has been about a 50% retracement. Here we've been shy of it. If this scenario plays out and say Bitcoin bottoms while the stock market plays catchup, then you could get a selloff, a rebound, and another sell-off or maybe deeper testing the low for a double bottom or a inverse head and shoulders type pattern and you could still get the larger bare market rally to go back and test 97,900 or uh just be above it. You could go back to the 50% retracement. So, I don't want to rule out that we get a larger bare market rally. If the stock market begins to play catch-up with Bitcoin, the Fed will eventually panic, but right now, stock market has moved uh higher, slamming into major long-term resistance in the weekly and the monthly time frame. If you want to see those resistance levels and the warning signs, market breath indicators, I'll link my video at the end of this one for the stock market on the S&P and NASDAQ. Uh, and that's on my other Ron Walker channel.

[00:26:39]So, this is still a possibility and what my original thought was, but I shared that with you in my last video with the linear scaling because I could be wrong about this. If the stock market uh plays catch-up to Bitcoin, will Bitcoin get a more violent uh more harsh push down like it did with rejection in 2022 at the at the 200 day moving average. It it collapsed after it got rejection there.

[00:27:08]Do we see something similar to that? So, uh these are the two scenarios that I'm looking at. One is that maybe uh we have a channel here that develops and then gives us a bigger bare market rally. And that's going to uh that I thought would fuel the bare market rally would be Fed jumbo cuts whenever the stock market joins Bitcoin and the institutions. The institutions are now involved. So we may get a bigger bare market rally. So far we haven't. It's been just under 38% which is weaker than it has normally been. So again, just looking for clues.

[00:27:44]Do we still get something like this, a bigger bare market rally, go closer back up into, you know, maybe above 100 100,000 and then get another big dump, see this bare market drag out on to 2027 and end up breaking the four-year cycle.

[00:27:58]So again, I don't know the future. I'm just looking at some different possibilities, thinking some things through. Uh just pointing some things out to you that that you know, you should consider and think through.

[00:28:09]Bitcoin is in a confirmed bare market.

[00:28:10]You know, you have the same people saying the same nonsense, you know, that told us we had a breakout at the top. I told you it was a fake out. I called a top 60,000 and I was right. And now all you know, cuz Bitcoin, I looked at history. What does Bitcoin do when it when it tops? It crashes 50 plus%. The people that told me how stupid I was for for saying that and mocked and laughed at that. Now, oh, 60,000's the bottom.

[00:28:37]Well, I thought you told us we weren't going to reach 60,000. I thought you told us we had a break out of the top and we're going to 200 250,000 by the end of 2025.

[00:28:48]Hello. But little old me and my indicators got it right. And the herd and the experts and the boom boys all got it wrong. Now those same people are telling us, "Oh, this is the bottom."

[00:29:01]And I'm just telling you, you have a bare flag going into the 200 period moving average, and you're in a confirmed bare market.