One Stock Was a Penny Stock 60 Days Ago. It Is Now Up 100x. Tim Knight Is Watching It Closely

追加: 2026-05-30

[00:00:00]lifetime highs as usual. Although if you add up the ES, the ENQ, the RTY, the YM dividing by 4, you kind of get unchanged at this point cuz um yeah, the RTY is down 085%, the YM's down, the YM's up 6, ESNQ are up just a little bit. So, it's like a wash overall. Market's tired.

[00:00:22]We're at exceptionally high levels now.

[00:00:25]Um higher than ever as usual. And that's t-minus 2 weeks until SpaceX. And I just um we're we're putting together a little surprise for you on that. But uh um it's it's going to be very exciting in a couple of weeks from today. Um it's all anybody's going to be talking about, I'm sure. But uh that's not here yet. It's a couple of weeks off. I've got some charts for you in the meantime. So let us wrap up the week and catch up with what's going on out there. uh lifetime highs on the diamonds. Um not a surprise. This was our former peak and we finally bested it um a few days ago.

[00:01:04]We basically spent the week um carving out nominally new highs with today kind of the first big punch higher. But there we have it. Uh the Dow had been kind of a lagard for a while, but now it's definitely caught up. Um, [clears throat] one item that has not been a lagard of course is tech stock Sears XLK.

[00:01:25]Um, with what continues to astonish me, uh, the most incredible fake out in human history breakdown and this explosive move higher from out of the blue. And there we have it. Look at that. Never higher. Um, you know, one thing that keeps me going is that the day will come that this whole AI thing makes a U-turn. I don't know if it's going to be next month or 5 years from now, but it's going to be pretty amazing to watch because the plumbing is so complex, the interdependencies are so vast. Uh, it's going to be astonishing.

[00:02:02]Um, but until then, we'll just keep celebrating lifetime highs because semiconductors and anything to do with hypers scaling just keeps vaultting higher and higher. So, XLK showing it very nicely. But yeah, just, you know, it's not supposed to do this. Uh, this was just absolutely incredible. Uh, although in fairness to the wonderful world of charting, um, basically this pattern was negated the moment we pierced back into it. I mean, this was the day was like, "Yeah, something's wrong here." We didn't know how wrong until later, of course. But yeah, that's XLK. And also just a demonstration of how fear hasn't just left the building, it's left the zip code in the state. Here's UVIX. This is the ultra long VIX futures, uh, which tends to fall anyway, but yeah, grinding to another lifetime low there. Um, the VIX has gone down to like 15 at this point. We're we're sort of scraping the bottom of the barrel at this point. And of course, anything leveraged against volatility um is just burning itself to death. I mean, it's basically a bread bar every single day. Shocking stuff. Um, I will say looking at the semiconductors, they're kind of gasping for breath right now because we've gone very far very fast. But in retrospect, the the sort of uh [clears throat] uh completely unimpeded trampling by the bulls ended back here on the 11th of May. Uh we took a stumble, we had another lift. We're just kind of hanging out there. We haven't gone much higher than where we were on May 11. And we're ending May today, of course, from a trading perspective. Um, but this was just just uh just straight up virtually. And then we've been a little more wobbly since then. And the past four trading days haven't really gone anywhere. Um, it varies from stock to stock of course.

[00:03:56]Uh, microns blasting higher again, whereas some others looking a little bit uh a little bit weaker. We'll we'll turn back to that in a moment.

[00:04:04]um over in South Korea um it too has been a big beneficiary of the DRAM and the semiconductor uh mega rallies um it is off a little right now um almost 1% uh lifetime highways yesterday we've shaving just a little bit off today but uh yeah you can see um you know this is kind of normal what you expect nobody cares about South Korean stocks And then everything changed um around April of last year. And so uh this has gone up.

[00:04:40]It's hard to believe. Um 300% 300% in a little more than a year.

[00:04:50]You know, that's remarkable. Um there are some sectors here and there that aren't doing so great. uh especially when it deals with sort of the main street versus Wall Street. Um here's XLP for example, the consumer discretionary way off its own highs and even today down over 1 and a half% and a new gap having been formed right there. So XOP looking quite weak and retail XRT uh this is also down almost 2%. Um it had a nice little top here fell pushed back into that pattern fell again. So it's more rangebound here. You can see for for actually uh coming into years at this point you can see we're just sort of cycling like so with shorter and shorter periods between each cycle. Um but we are slipping today somewhat on XRT. The uh yesterday's peak seems to been just about all she wrote in terms of this counter trend rally. So now we're starting to weaken again on that.

[00:05:50]But getting back to everyone's favorite topic, semiconductors. Um I mentioned yesterday that that sector really needs Nvidia to brush itself off and start to gain some strength and it so far it has done that. Um we had fallen as I discussed yesterday even a little bit into this range again. Yesterday it it uh got up on its feet and pushed higher and then today we're pushing higher still. So we are bouncing somewhat from that. So that is behaving itself as a support zone so far. uh in turn uh SMH is uh as Tom used to say massively unchanged right now because that's a combination of like Nvidia and Micron showing strength whereas other semiconductor stocks like AMD um showing some weakness. So it's all kind of washed out to nothing right now. Uh the past 4 days really going nowhere fast.

[00:06:45]Lots of trading but really nothing in terms of decisive action. You got that one last little leap on Tuesday, but since then, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. Actually, I keep forgetting this was Friday here. So, yeah, into this whole week, the entire week has been just lingering up here.

[00:06:59]There was no Monday trading. That was Memorial Day, of course. Um AMD, as I mentioned, is a is a little pocket of weakness in the midst of a otherwise strong sector. Uh it's down um over 2.5% right now. not that big a deal in terms of the overall picture. You can see it's nothing remarkable at all um about today's price bar. Um it had [clears throat] been for months just banging itself against this resistance, but it finally we can see in retrospect here we had a very nice base here. Um really an inverted head and shoulders on this one as that completed and it didn't even bother retracing. It was just a straight shot higher and then a big gap higher and up we go. So yes, it's a little lower right now, but um partly worth mentioning. Uh I don't actually have any semiconductor positions except for some Intel puts, which I started uh buying um I think just uh earlier this week. Um INTC.

[00:08:03]Uh Intel's down today 2 and a/4%. Uh I [clears throat] don't remember the the the expiration of my puts, but uh probably October. Um these days even even September is too soon for me now.

[00:08:17]So I'm keeping it at least half a year out. But Intel um trying to catch its breath there. it peaked itself back on the 11th just uh as I was pointing out that was kind of the uh last unvarnished lurch higher and we're actually been below that ever since which is pretty bad for a semiconductor firm these days.

[00:08:38]So yeah, that's Intel. Uh Micron MU is strong up over $20 today which translates to about a 2 and a4% push higher lifetime high intraday. Uh probably a lifetime high close although the past 3 days trading days have been red bars. Um but [clears throat] yeah, you can see just how fantastic that rise has been as well. I you know maybe if you go back to the late '9s we can see some action like this. This may be unprecedented in in in the history of the semiconductor sector. Um, couple of last ones. Um, AXT has the unusual phenomena of being down every single day this week. Uh, that's weird. Uh, this had been just a sensational reliable blast higher. uh we had moved from uh I mean [clears throat] we're talking a hundfold you know it's just like what uh but yeah this was virtually a penny stock um back around liberation day and now it's a triple digit stock and the recent dip we've seen again is not unprecedented. We've seen dips along the way here and here and here and here and all along the way. Um, so this could be just yet another pause, but it's a little interesting to me that this thing has sunk um pretty [clears throat] solidly four days in a row. Um, maybe this was the top on this one because otherwise it's just a bottle rocket. And one last really interesting one is is a very young one. Um, CBRS.

[00:10:17][clears throat] Uh, this has only been public 2 or 3 weeks. Look at that.

[00:10:22]Um, we have gone from around 385 down to 234. That's something like a 40% drop.

[00:10:30]And, uh, as I mentioned in a video I just did, the stock has been a great performer and a horrible performer at exactly the same time because when it came out, it was supposed to come out like at 115. Then they bumped it up to 150 cuz demand was so strong. Then they bumped it up to like 180 or 185. And when it came out, it was almost $400.

[00:10:52]So from that perspective, even after this demolition, it's way higher than even its goose um IPO price. So it's been a great great sensation from a retail perspective. It stinks. It's down almost every day in the context of a raging bull market and a really raging semiconductor sector. So it's it's like the uh um shreddinger's cat of of stock performance. Um yeah. So yeah, up and down. Um we're always talking about chips and ships here. As far as ship goes, we'll just mention one. Uh this is the UFO ETF. Um this of course is focused on on rockets and space and um it has been a tremendous performer as well. It's up hundreds and hundreds of percent since liberation day. The funny thing is that if you look at the entire history of it, um it actually was a pretty lousy creature. Um from 2021 to 2024, uh it lost most of its value and it really only got uh to be a superstar starting 2021. And with with increasing fervor, sharper and sharper ascents uh all because of SpaceX of course um it has become a phenomenal stock. Oh gee, I see we have 2 minutes left. I better pick up the pace. Um, SNDK, SanDisk, uh, another pop on that one, although quite a modest one, just augmenting its huge gains already. Um, a few shorts I've got that are doing okay. Sienna is down about 1 and a half%. Corning GLW has been a good performer, down every single day this week. Another short of mine.

[00:12:35]Uh, Lummentum, which is LI TE, not only down again, but I just noticed dainty little head and shoulders top right there. So, that that could add to some sinkage next week. And Meta gave me a scare um on Tuesday, but it's burning off some of those gains. Um, [clears throat] excuse me, on Wednesday.

[00:12:56]Um, so it's been slipping, which is helpful, too. Um bonds uh have are unchanged right now. Um as I had hoped as we approach this this enormous blob of overhead supply uh it is slowing down that price ascent that we've experienced and uh we can see this reflected in TLT which also got very very close to its price gap but happily did not violate this price gap. So, I I've actually added uh today to those uh September 30 TLT uh $86 puts. Um I'd really appreciate if bonds would fall next week if you don't mind. Um in the final moments we've got, let's just uh wrap it up. Couple of quick things with uh here's Bitcoin by way of biti. This is the inverse of Bitcoin. Looks pretty bullish uh here. That is to say, bearish for Bitcoin. Um, I've reentered this uh this trade with a tight stop at uh few pennies below today's low. And uh because I'm out of time, I'm just going to jump to the bottom of my chart list to Dell, which is blasting higher by $100 today, biggest the stock is. I went ahead and I didn't plan to, but I shorted this at 12 u excuse me 425 uh earlier today just because it seems really expensive right now. We'll see if that works out. But at least the earnings risk is gone because uh Papley did not come into the day short this monster. So uh tremendous day for Dell there as well. Okay, well as I say t-minus two weeks to SpaceX. Have a good weekend. I'll see you on Monday and thanks as always for coming by. Goodbye.