The analysis offers a sophisticated synthesis of on-chain data and technical patterns, effectively dressing market uncertainty in the language of systematic rigor. While the "Double Advantage" strategy provides a logical framework, it ultimately serves as a high-level exercise in rationalizing the inherent volatility of a bear cycle.
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Krypto: Aktuelle BCT & ALTCOIN Analyse! WIE gehts nächste WOCHE WEITER?追加:
So friends, I hope it worked this time. I would say let's take a look right now. The chat wasn't working earlier. I checked, the stream wasn't set to be suitable for children. Nevertheless, the whole thing was actually there. I still hope it works now.
Okay, now there will be a live chat. Yes, in that case he's only arriving now. I sincerely apologize for any inconvenience.
So, first of all, greetings go out to the lovely Crewhunter and to all 20 viewers from before, but now the whole thing should definitely work. So, deeply my [laughter] the Okay, greetings also go out first. I would say we wait a moment until everyone has switched over.
So in that case, the stream earlier was indeed allowed to contain content suitable for children. I don't know why I set that, probably because I didn't pay attention.
Okay, let's load it again briefly. Okay. Yes, it should definitely work now. Very, very good. Rafael Bonato, hello Maro. How are you? I [ahem] am doing very, very well, dear Rafael. I hope you are doing very, very well too. Because this week was really, really fun with all the trades, I have to honestly say. I don't think there have been this many open trades in a long time. Of course, it was correspondingly time-consuming for me, but yes, I really enjoyed the MSK system so much. Nevertheless, I have to honestly say that the week was stressful.
Hello crypto enthusiasts. Obs, wrong Chan.
[laughter] Okay, Christian, greetings first of all. Greetings definitely go out. I certainly hope that all four of you are doing well, and of course also everyone who joins us later. So, first of all, for everyone who is new, to summarize briefly, today we will be analyzing altcoins, analyzing Bitcoin, and identifying long-term short positions, because I am still overall short.
Bitcoin has just now really shown that the bear flag pattern is still active. We have another team above us and three more below us, and I will show you where I perceive each entry point. One or more Alcoins are already close to marking short-term long positions here again. As you can see here, for example, Chainlink, which we can briefly discuss in a moment, and other alcoins as well, but we are mainly looking at whether this drop in Bitcoin, i.e., this correction, is corrective in nature or, as I see it, simply continues to be bearish overall. Yes, so we're now experiencing a brief recovery rally in a bear market, and the bear trend is now continuing. That's just my opinion, of course. So, first of all, we'll briefly look at the funding rates here. They've been negative for a very, very long time, from May 7th to the 14th. So we had almost a week of continuous long exposure, meaning more people went long. Here too, it's very important to note that funding rates cannot always be directly transferred to higher leverage. in the long or short range, but very roughly important, very roughly, but not overarching.
Overall, I look at this whole thing for you every day, especially the long-to-short ratio. Here you can really see, and it's also free here at Coin Ank, how many people are going long and short in relation to each other. And here we see that a great many people are going short.
Um, if this all continues today, tomorrow, and the day after, it also means that there will be more short liquidity available to us. Very [clears throat] very important. So here we see that there is currently more short selling, but this is also very, very important. Um, if we put the daily chart in here and look at the individual timestamps, the only ones, for example May 5th, May 10th, then we see that there have been very, very many days on which much, much more long positions were leveraged.
In any case, you can now see the whole thing very clearly here.
[ahem] Here you can see the true long to short ratio, and not just here, only in the funding rates, but we can conclude that there has been significantly more long trading than short trading in the last two weeks.
Meanwhile, it was more the case that we had a higher leverage volume towards the upward movement, i.e., up to approximately 83,000 BTC, meaning higher open interest, which of course suggests, as I have already said, more long exposure. And what is extremely interesting is that during the fall-offs, when Bitcoin corrected, we consistently had higher spot volumes and, since May 7th until now, when funding rates have been more positive, a consistently negative Coinbase premium. This means that significantly more Bitcoin was sold on Coinbase. Therefore, Bitcoin is cheaper on Coinbase than on other exchanges, and that's where the Coinbase Premium becomes a disadvantage. Here too, the chart analysis worked out very, very well, of course. We can see that we had a double advantage up here. once in the bullish target zone here in yellow and then in the red GKL, i.e. the entire correction area of the bears. And after that, we reacted really well here, with a total sell-off of approximately 6.37%, as you can see here. It's truly enormous at that point, one has to say quite clearly.
Congratulations to everyone who saw it in the group and carried it out, and to everyone who watched. You know, you don't have to trade, but I think it's cool, especially now that the market is moving sideways, even if the short-term trend is bullish but bearish in the long term. It's a great way to earn a little extra. Christian writes: "Take a look at the last candle on BTC Weekly."
I'm looking at it right now. I imagine it's a huge place. The crew member writes, "This might be a stupid question, but what is a double advantage?" No, the crew member question is absolutely not a stupid question. Um [ahem] double advantage means we have two areas that overlap, from both a bullish and a bearish point of view. I'll explain it to you very briefly. Let me use Chainlink as an example here. You're seeing red here, that's bearish. So, for example, red up here means a bearish correction zone.
This means that this downward trend is being tested to see whether the bears continue to demonstrate strength or not. And in yellow here, or mostly in white, I then create, uh, zones that have something to do with the police. To make a long story short, this ABC movement has brought us into the bullish target level. That means we have worked through the price expectations where the SK system offered here, or entered them, and then at the same time we corrected this bearish trend here. That means we are still in a bear market.
Provided we were in here 50 to 66% of the time, the bears have still validly won according to the SK system.
This means the bearish trend remains active. Plus, we have addressed the bullish trend or the bullish target level. That means we have an overlap of bullish and bearish interests, and therefore I call the whole thing the double advantage.
So, I hope that was clear. So, to make a quick point, um, we would have, for example, a bearish zone here, i.e., a bearish GKL.
That would be what I marked above, shown here in red. And if, for example, we had calculated the bullish level here in the small fractal structure, then we would have a double advantage, because we have a bearish GKL and a bullish target level, or, for example, a bullish GKL and a bearish target level. So that's the opposite, right? Here we have a double advantage, and here we now have the bullish advantage in the single bullish one, because we are entering the bullish target zone here in white at 9.53.
until 9.09. [clears throat] And we also have the bearish advantage, so in quotation marks, because the bearish target is being worked through or begins to be worked through from 9:56 to 9:26. It's also quite clear here that one can, of course, say to wait until we come across this trend line and only then enter the market. But strictly according to the SK system, if I say I use, for example, 1% per trade, I put in half a percent here, another half a percent here, and then I place my stop loss down here, or where I actually prefer to place my stop loss, either at the entire last higher low or lower high, or at 0.78. So, for example, I would enter here and enter here, and then either place the stop loss here at 0.667, but that's often only tested. That's why I usually set my SL here to 078 and, for example, at 8.77.
Yes, then of course we'll have to wait and see where it goes next. The next bullish sequences would then need to be calculated. For example, one could say, okay, we had this clearance sale here, which went down to 9.30, then we might get down to 10.10 or 10.36.
And if we then develop a small bullish structure here, for example something like this, then I can also calculate the next zone with the next double advantage and [ahem] the larger the timeframe and the larger the zone, so for example a zone like this would be huge, right? Clearly, this zone here in red was also very, very good, because, um, here we had the double advantage, so we didn't get into the bearish zone, but the zone is very, very large. So it has developed since January with the sell-off in February and then now up to the latest increase. So, something like that, for example. Okay, sorry for all the talking. In any case, I hope it was easy to understand. Um, let's take another look.
Hey Maro, what impact do you think the Clarity Act will have on the long-term future? I think it's very positive, but I stand by that. I thought ETFs were much, much more important because, apart from institutional clarity, which will now be included in the legislation, ETFs were probably so good because they provided a financial derivative for Bitcoin, for entrepreneurs or large institutions like BlackRock.
And I think that the biggest adoption has now begun, and the Clarity Act is, to put it best, the foundation that was created after the ETFs, but the ETFs really brought in capital. Um, especially after the starting signal was given with BlackRock, and I think the Clarity Act now brings even more security, especially for banks and brokers, regarding staking rewards, staking returns, and so on. Um, so there might be even more brokers, even more people involved with crypto, but I think one of the most important vehicles was really ETFs. So, personally, I think they were more important in the short term [ahem] for the pump and in the long term for a nice development. And a larger adoption in the crypto market is the Clarity Act. [clears throat] An important one, I think. So, the bear market will continue until the end of this year. Um, for me personally, yes, I can gladly explain why. We've had this bear flag on our radar since, well, it actually developed slowly from February to March and continues to do so now. We have tremendous potential here to reach the first lower limit. Here, uh, 735,800 to 71,000 US dollars, and especially now here we also had the double advantage with BTC up here for the short.
We've already said that loudly several times, very, very often. Uh, you could have gone short here once, that would have been a double advantage. Then we developed a bearish structure here, where everyone said it would continue to go down.
Everyone here said it would continue to go down, and here we had bearish GKL zones where one could go short. And here, there was indeed another nice double advantage where one could go short. I then used it as well. Still a major short position. Um, and here again, [clears throat] you can see how powerful the Kystem is.
Um, bearish here, we're going into a double bullish advantage, having hit bearish target levels and bullish GKL levels. From there, we reacted bullishly upwards again, even exceeding the double advantage once more.
So, if I had gone in here, I probably would have sold everything here and here, right? And then another short entry.
The question is, what was SL Management like? It's a close call, then it drops off sharply again. Here you can really see an exemplary way in which the marketers perfectly fished for long and short liquidity and yet the trend has now remained in Berisch, because we have had the structural break here, breaking through 79200. This has now activated the next bearish structure, which goes to 76500 to 75000 US dollars and the next entire bearish, excuse me, bullish GKL. So, as I said, the important medium-term range is 73800 to 70800.
And this is where we begin to see the overall correction from this entire impulse.
I would definitely go for that, because they have a double advantage. This means that this bullish movement would also have to be reversed. I'm simply keeping an eye on this zone in case you 're short somewhere here and want to take profits in relevant areas, like here, here, and here.
Very, very important.
So, now I would say let's take a look at the weekly candle, where someone had previously written something. Let's take a look at the beautiful weekly candle. This weekly candle looks absolutely on steroids in terms of short potential or rather bearish strength, because this could become a bearish engulfing. For those who do n't know what that means. Of course, it goes both ways, in this case, bearishly. We have a green candle, followed by a bearish candle, which completely took over the green candle and thus dominated it. And we can see here now that if the week were to close at 77500 or now at 78000, then we would have closed lower than when last week even opened. Of course, a very, very berry-like phenomenon is also a great example of the Berish engulfing here when the last bear flag broke out. We could see here that the wick was no longer carried along, then we had a bearish end to the week, corrected upwards by about 50% and then it was time for departure, and a real departure at that.
So, yeah, very, very good for the bears, very, very bad for the bulls if they closed like that, right? We have a day and a half of time, of course, but that's plenty, very, very plenty. The crew member writes: "Ah, okay, thank you. I hope you understood it perfectly. If not, feel free to write it down, okay? The crew member is no problem at all."
Um, okay, let's take a look. Yes, Paluma Trading is definitely right about that.
Um, Pupsegal writes: "Hey Pupsal, greetings going out first. Glad you're back in the game." In any case, we've just briefly shown you how Bitcoin works; the bears have won so far. [clears throat] We have successfully moved down from here, leveraging the double empirical advantage. It's extremely competitive, isn't it? To be perfectly clear, once, twice, three times, four times, but the bears have now effectively won once with this sequence here. This is the short-term one, which has now been dismantled. That means it's possible things will go up from here. However, it has already happened here once, giving us a double advantage. This means there is also a great potential for it to be broken now. If it is not broken, you can draw 50s Fip Level up to this point. So, theoretically, one could now go for a high-risk long position and then sell off the position again here. I won't do that now, it's too risky for me. Um, personally I would rather wait until we dismantle this next bearish sequence. This is the medium-term perspective, where there has n't been any reduction yet, and overall, as already mentioned, bearish, right? So, we're at, you can see it here, the 200 EMA bounced off on the daily view, and then we're at the 100 and 50, or yes, here at the 100 EMA bounced off on the weekly view.
These levels are extremely exciting, that much is clear. Um, and still bearish. So, in the short to medium term, the bears currently have the upper hand.
In the long term, actually still, because we have bounced off the bearish level. This usually takes one to two weeks, because it 's a higher-level structure. We can see this on the weekly view, but as of now we are successfully breaking out of the bearish structure to the downside and of course still have a bear flag. Absolutely clear. What's much more exciting now, apart from the fact that the trades here at Chainlink have worked incredibly well, is that they have worked exceptionally well here at Solana as well. So, as you can see, the bullish target zone has been reached, and now it's down.
Next entry point, straight down. And even if one hadn't taken that one, this one here, because there was no double advantage, this one would have offered a double advantage, but unfortunately it would have also meant missing the bullish target again. So, you can't always have the double advantage, but it's definitely extremely exciting, and XRP is also available with other icons. I don't even know if I have them on the chart. No, I'm actually not good at it at all.
Unfortunately, I can't show it to you in detail right now, but here you can see a prime example: we are overextended from 078 and then here with a wick going full throttle downwards, and that's a typical chart pattern that shows me both rumors sell the news. Yes, buy in the hope that the Clarity Act will pass through the Senate or Congress, and sell when it does. XRP went up here, I believe, for a few hours after the Clarity Act came into effect. So I think the second instance must have been there, and then the whole buying process really started. Yes, and there you can see that it wasn't spot, um, spot, so there were no spot increases, but leveraged trade increases. And that's exactly what I'm seeing with Bitcoin right now, friends. I see that we've actually been in a sideways movement with a slightly bullish tendency.
However, we can see that interest has increased with each significant rise. We can see that here. While funding rates are positive. Well, you always see with long leverage, but then you see that the open volume, i.e., the total volume, usually only spikes upwards when Bitcoin is sold off. That means I see Bitcoin rising through leveraged trades.
Bitcoin doesn't rise due to spot demand, and when Bitcoin falls, spot demand is sold off, and Coinbase Premium is also negative.
Coinbase consistently sees a higher rate of selling compared to other exchanges. That's negative, and um, I'll stick to that. According to the cycle theory, we are still in the bear market. Um, we're now seeing what is actually a typical picture, similar to what we saw in the last bear market.
Sideways movement with a bear flag pattern. Let me show you briefly here.
So, you can see the sideways movement here, so please pay attention to this. Um, if the sideways movement increases interest, then your long trades, then sell and break out of the bear flag. Now pay attention to how it is here. We have seen a 30-40% increase in BTCs. Open interest in green is increasing very, very strongly, and now that Bitcoin is slowly weakening, many leveraged traders are exiting again, which we can see here in the open interest. Yes, and especially when we look at the liquidation, it's perfectly clear. Um, so, let's go to the liquidation heat map. Longs are being hunted, I mean they are really being hunted.
[clears throat] Let's go to the one-week view or maybe two-week view.
You can clearly see it here, right? So, the entire cluster has been picked up here. It's also important to note that I don't trade based on liquidity. I simply look at, how best to put it, first the system, then I look at the liquidity and other indicators, so on a confluence basis. That means it's not clear to me that we can go up to 82,000 or 83,000 USD just because we have a lot of short positions right now, because, as I said, the current structure is active, right? And here we see it in the two-week view. The class was completely erased. Of course, you can go to the input view and say about us what's below us, all this stuff is nonsense to me. So when I trade on a weekly basis, I also look at the liquidity on a weekly and monthly basis.
Nevertheless, it is of course extremely important here that Bitcoin continues to fall, and significantly so. So, if Bitcoin were to continue moving sideways for a week or two, we would naturally have much more liquidity above us, even though we have many long positions below us. That's why I really want to see Bitcoin first go to 76,000-75,000 USDL, then maybe a small pullback, and then really go in here first, then form further bearish sequences, e.g. here.
Then, [ahem], we have bearish sequences again here with the next break, and then further down. But so far it's worked really well.
So, what's extremely interesting is the Adas chart, friends. The Adidas chart here has had several fakeouts of the bear flag. Here you see a fakeout with wicks, so a real classic fakeout.
But now we've had 1, 2, 3, 4 day candles here, where [ahem] we actually broke out over the bear flag.
which actually suggests what a locked drawing is. Understood.
But what actually suggests is that we have a breakout to the upside, the bearishness is invalid, but now we have returned with extreme strength and here too, although the ADAS chart is not an Alcoin, but a collection of Alcoin capitalizations, one can really say perfectly with confluence to the other Alcoins, we are bearish. Yes, we have higher high, lower high, then the last higher low was undercut, and now we are approaching a double advantage here with the Ecoins. It starts here at 178 billion US dollars. That means, according to my analysis, the average Alcoin will fall by at least another 4%.
Theoretically it could also be 9%, but I think we have a double advantage here anyway. And then, after a drop of 5 to 6%, I see a resurgence, a sigh of relief. That means if we were to look at the Ecoins here, I would also check if I have a confluence in the other charts for a long trade. An example would be here, let's take a quick look at Solana here, but here the double advantage is in the short term.
Theoretically, a double advantage in the long term would be achieved here at 79 US dollars. One could do that right now, absolutely, but I'm not going to. or if so, only with a small profit margin, or a better example is Chainlink. Here we can see, okay, we have accepted a bearish structure here. We're now entering into a double advantage here with a bearish structure and a bullish GKL, and then we can, for example, go long at 9.50 to, for example, 910, and then go in with the salmon. But here too, I am bearish, i.e., short, with the majority of my portfolio and simply want to milk the market a little more, so to speak. Yes, so just take a little more liquidity with you, take a little more money with you. So, first of all, greetings to a solid 33 viewers.
If you enjoyed the stream, please leave a like, a comment, and most importantly, a subscription for Akira and me. As I said, if you generally want to receive my trading setups and macro analyses, then please subscribe. And if you simply want to become part of my community, feel free to check out the video description below. You can become a member of my community completely free of charge. I am happy about each and every one. Okay, now for a Paulana Spezi, friends. Excuse me for a moment.
Ah, first a little bit of product placement here.
Okay, now let's see what nice things you've written. Um, I'll just hold the short position at 82500 for now.
The entry point is far too good for that. Thanks for that, Maro. Dear Christian, I already saw what you wrote in the group. I'm extremely pleased that you shorted it, yes, and that you really got a fantastic entry point here. So it's a really awesome start. I can tell you what I did. You can decide whether you want to do it or not. Of course, I am not allowed to give financial advice. You're sitting on the perfect double advantage here with minimal drawdown – it's a real killer. You then waited out the pullback, during which many have already been washed out again. It's also very, very good that you stayed in.
That just shows patience, right? It just takes two or three days of patience if they are trading on high timeframes. Simply being patient is the only thing to do. So, in any case, you've already taken a plus of 5% while still being in the red. This is very, very good, especially for such a low price. As far as I personally go, we would have had a double advantage here. I would have taken profits here, but not at 78900 anymore, because we are already in the process of falling below that. I would probably take the next portion of the profits. Of course, it depends on the size of your trade, whether you want to take 10, 20, or 30%. I can only say what I do. I would take $75,000 for partial profits at 76560, because, and this is of course very likely, we will then see a reaction here. Probably back to the 50s or 66s level. It doesn't have to be that way, we can come down directly from here. I'm just saying, proceed with caution, okay? Um, then let's make more profit here. Then, for example, you've taken a little bit down from here, say, half of it, 30, 40% uh SL at break even. And if we were to see something like that at the top, yes, and collect the liquidity at the top, you would still have successfully taken something away. The disadvantage, of course, is that if you go all the way down, you'll be shorted with less capital, but I can speak from my own experience, purely from gut feeling, it will continue to go down, down, down. Based purely on the SK system, it will definitely go down at least another 34000$, but if something happens, news-wise or anything, and everyone freaks out, at least you've bagged some profits.
So, I would definitely have taken profits here, then further down, and otherwise, as I said, I would wait until the next double advantage is visible. If we do something like this, for example, then I can probably calculate the next target zone here, and there I would take further profits, take part of the price, and otherwise I would probably still let half of the total position run. As I said, I'm still completely short Hatch overall and would wait and see what happens with the two team gaps at 67,000 and here in the bullish GKL starting at 71,300 US dollars, and then it will really be decided whether we do this one or whether we do this one. Yes, whether it will continue then, because we already had a fakeout with this bull flag. You remember, we had that fakeout here, and anyone who went short got completely savaged, right? So even though there was a fakeout here, we can see in the yellow box that the SK system held up perfectly. Yes, that 's exactly it, and that's why I love the SK system so much. And after Bitcoin held here, we calculated the next bullish target zones, and we see the next one given here at 91,000 to 98,000. Why did n't I use this one? Why did I choose this one in yellow? Quite simply, that was the primary sequence. You can see it right here. And I trade primary sequences, that is, those that were there first at the extreme points. This means that if, for example, Bitcoin reacts extremely bullishly here, then one can look at the next sequence. Otherwise, I'll leave it be and remain generally bearish.
So, um, can you also explain what a GKL is? The overall correction level can be bullish as well as bearish, I always say. Bearish GKL.
Bullish GKL. So, yesterday at noon we won against Akira Coinbase 1:0. Who among you is here? [laughter] Oh dear. Yes, okay, I understand, I understand. Greetings definitely go out. The laughter says it all. You probably think I don't even know if I laughed. I think you mean I know my throat is so dry all the time, even though I'm not sick. I do n't know what's going on either. But yes, no, to everyone who said, yes, it's going long, we're going up, we're going up. I've said it every time, it can happen, but it stops at 85,000 at the latest, and I had already taken a short position much earlier. Well, no, I could have been wrong, but so far it does n't look like it.
Absolutely not. Could you please open Anders Chat? It reported on a four- year downtrend. Thanks.
From a four-year downtrend.
Um, okay. So, if we look at the ADAS chat here, the downtrend has not been broken, as you can see here. So, we have the downtrend here, which has been the case for the entire cycle, and we have adhered to it perfectly. They're still in there.
Then we would have had a rather bullish breakout to the upside in the short term, right?
Here you can see in yellow one target zone reached, two target zones reached, but then here in the bearish GKL, meaning again also for the Cunter downward movement, bearish GKL, correction of the impulse we have adhered to again. Yes, very briefly overextended, and now we're actually already moving on to the next bearish level with a double advantage.
Honestly, I don't see anything bullish or a breakout from the four-year downtrend, unless you've drawn a trend line, but by the way, it's a head and shoulders pattern, yes, like the head and shoulders pattern we see here. That is truly worrying. I can only say this to each and every one of you. We've seen this shoulder head/ shoulder pattern before. Not quite as accurate as now, but we saw it back then too, and then there was an extremely strong sell-off. Now we have seen shoulder-head-shoulder again. It has been developing for over 2 years, almost 3 years in fact. We had a retest of this neckline here. You can see it here, followed by an extremely bearish downward reaction.
So, if I'm not mistaken, yes, we have a multi-year pattern plus SK system plus cycle theory plus on-chain data, which tells me that the ADS, i.e., the ICINS and Bitcoin, will go even further down. We have a huge DT here that hasn't been filled yet.
And we also have this bearish sequence here, which has theoretically been dealt with using this DCH, but I think we will still pick up the lower edge here with the Alcoins. And apart from that, if we now put the EMA on here, we can take a look. We have accepted the 200 EMA on the daily view, and we have also accepted the um, yes, 200 EMA here.
actually on the weekly chart.
Okay, then let's take a quick look at what else was there. OK. Um, I'll call you Franzi from now on. I hope I have, or Franz, I don't even know exactly. I hope I was able to answer the question. So, I don't see any bullish breakout, really. Crewman, can you explain again what a GKL is?
We already had AG earlier. Yes, then I'm really curious about the reaction.
And yes, Christian, I'm extremely excited too. It is of course possible that we will still be able to collect the liquidity. Yes, we can see there is liquidity here. But if I now look at the two- to three-month perspective, pay attention.
So, as you can see here, we naturally had the greatest liquidity here, which we've now absorbed, but we still have nice clusters further down at 76,000 and 77,000. That's where the short-term or medium-term target zone for BTC currently lies, and then down here of course at 65,000. Yes, important. No damage goes straight down, straight up. Anyone who is sidelined right now and says they want to go short, I can only say what I'm doing. I wouldn't do it. I would really wait, because we have just seen a short-term sell-off of 56%.
Then I would never short it. Just as little as I would go long. If XP rises 20% in one day, I wouldn't just go long either. Let's wait and see. Yes, so the best thing that can happen to us now is that this sequence gets processed.
Then, from this sequence, let's say we go down roughly to the middle. Then, from 05 to 066, we have 80,000 to 79,000, where we could do another short. Perhaps even a double advantage. Now I obviously have to wait and then go short.
Otherwise, I would leave it alone. Those who didn't dare to short at this level only have themselves to blame. We've been discussing this zone for, I think, 4 weeks now. I didn't think it would be achieved myself, but I told you every time that this double advantage is extremely strong. Dear Christian took it with him. Uh, greetings and then yeah, let's wait and see for now. We still have a small SI GB above us here now. The other one below us is being filled right now. This 7 Gap Close above us would actually be perfect. We're going down here on Saturday or Sunday, right? Then, um, the stock exchange opens, that is, the CMI stock exchange. Then we close this cam gap above us in the 05/066 area with a bullish target zone, and then a downward move. But yes, extremely exciting, really extremely exciting. Plus, there's also the confluence with the Adas chart. By the way, I've also started to do a very basic analysis of USDT dominance for you. We also see GKL reacting bullishly here. We can see here that he is currently at a target zone that he is in the process of working through.
Once he has dealt with them, Alcoins and Bitcoin might be able to breathe a sigh of relief for a little while. And then, what I can very, very well imagine is that this flag of bullying will be dealt with, right? So, bean flag here on the flagpole.
Then it continues upwards from here to a dominance of up to 9.4%.
That would be very bad for the markets because it would drain liquidity. So yes, fitting for the bear market at that location, right? Very, very important.
Aside from that, um, we've already discussed it several times. I and a few others of you think that we are in the Neahse, meaning that we are mentally denying or denying that we are in a bear market. As far as I'm concerned, we're in the bear market and everything fits perfectly. Open interest is rising. Sideways movement with a slight bullish tendency, bear flag. Everyone is becoming a little more, how can one say, believer again. Everyone's getting a little bullish again. This picture, which one of our group sent in, is important to note, it is not an attack on any individual. Just a brief summary. Uh, we already saw this bullish trend return two weeks ago. Yes, the next Bullan is beginning. Last chance before the outbreak. The turning point is also one of my favorite words for thumbnails.
The turning point, we all know it, right? Um, I obviously don't know what the videos were about, right? But purely from the perspective of the thumbnails, Alex Becker is also very important here, one of the most well- known crypto influencers ever.
Um, they'll rise quickly, won't they? And they will quickly rise back to the top. That's a kind of FOMO.
They've seen a little bit now, which is a fact, meaning that if the Greed Index was only very, very slightly overheated. Um, and that's exactly what I mean, right? That's exactly what I keep saying. Um, here too, John Rick, our contrarian indicator, just kidding, John Wick, right? I hope W didn't suffer. This means the sim gaps will be addressed and then the descent to the top will begin.
Okay, let's take a look. I think you mean these sim gaps here, which are around 691 and one around 67800.
However, this is Johnwick, and it 's very, very important that you keep that in mind; let's say those are being addressed.
I agree with that. You're the only one saying we have an impulsive bearish, a corrective bullish, followed by a bearish impulsive, which looks very impulsive right now, and then you say the SIEFs will be picked up and then it will continue upwards. Anything can happen. We see the Hambolian GKL, where the SI GAs are, but, and this is also very important, we consider that we have failed once, twice, three times, four, five times in breaking down from this Berenflagge trend channel. Do you think there will be a sixth or seventh time where we find that this trend line holds up? Because, in fact, we cannot get into the bullish GKL without leaving the trend line. That means if we pick up the 7e gaps, we have already broken out of the trend line. And not by 1.2% like back then, but by, I don't know, 4.56%, and then you think we'll manage to get back into the trend and then leave the bear flag to the upside again. I personally am absolutely not participating. We've seen it here, one attempted breakout, two, three, and then here again; I think it will happen again in the same way. We'll be hanging down here at the bear flag, then everyone will be thinking, do I go long, do I go short, do I sell or do I buy, then it'll go down. That would have been, for example, right here. Yes, then we'll pick up the SI gaps from here, and you really think that if, for example, we pick up the SI gaps here in a situation like this, it will go straight back up after testing the Berenflage so often from below. I'm saying no, I mean, I'm saying absolutely not taking it. If I'm wrong, you know it, I'm happy to admit my mistakes, or what do you mean by mistakes? Error assessment.
Um, but we've now seen how perfectly the double advantage has also ignited up there. And if we now look, uh, if we further analyze SK System BTC, then it would work accordingly.
Of course, some people here will be shocked by this, but I find the next bearish targets according to the SK system to be 21,000 to 7,000, which is absolutely unrealistic, quite clearly.
However, we have other Fibonacci extensions that are also frequently encountered, namely the number one.
The number one is at $45,000 here, and even at $45 it's still in a perfectly normal bullish correction.
I mean, we simply corrected this whole upward trend, so in a bull market of the last three years we had a year of bear market until October, November and then worked it out.
But for me, the entire integrity of this bullish structure, as I already demonstrated earlier, is crucial: min rates, Coinbase Premium, order books, and so on. I've shown it a few times already. The structure is very, very similar to the structure we had in the last bear flag. Let me show you briefly.
This was the last bear flag and this is the current bear flag here. I'll show you how to draw it very badly. We have seen that overall the funding rates here have been positive. We have n't seen it quite so intensely here yet, but I've mentioned it a few times already. Funding rates are an indicator of whether to go long or short, but it's not entirely accurate.
Yes, I've already looked at the long-to-short ratio a few times. There are currently more people using long leverage than short leverage. So it 's pretty much the same as it was back then. Then open interest is extremely similar. The bear flag is rising. Interest increases and then everyone is liquidated. Let's see what it looks like right now. The bear flag has risen, followed by a bullish trend of open interest, and now a very, very large number of traders are trapped, meaning a very, very large number of long traders are currently caught. Uh, especially at the top with BTC, they will be liquidated if we... going to 79,000, 78,000, 77,000 and now the most important thing, I'm of course also looking at the leverage traders, but the most important thing, which gives us most of our influence, look here, the last bear flag we had a sharply decreasing aggregate volume, meaning spot buyers were almost completely inactive. Now look, same pattern, Berenflagge at the top rises, decreasing volume. Do you know what that means? That means you'll wake a sleeping bear. Not in a bearish sense, but generally speaking, it can also be interpreted that way: if the volume increases significantly again, then presumably only during the sell-off, just like back then when the bear flag goes up, volume decreases, and then suddenly the volume wakes up completely, and Coinbase Premium is massively sold off, and then, in the end, this sleeping bear has been awakened. Yes, the spot buyers, the shaky hands, the short-term holders, they are still waiting, they still have a little hope.
Long traders go long, as the name suggests, they do have a bit of a promotion.
And as soon as they manage to get below the average short-term owner price, things really escalate. And I'll briefly show you where it is, because this is an extremely important metric, which shows us whether the short-term holder, the retailer, feels comfortable or not.
And if we take a quick look at this, you'll see that they come very, very, very close to this price, and it already existed back then, and for me the confluence is simply too strong. Let me give you a brief example of what it was like during the last bear market. We came in below the average short-holder price, there was a bit of FOMO, lots of long traders, and when they came down, Bitcoin lost massive gains. So then he really went downhill. Now look here.
First Berenflagge, he held.
Second bear flag, it didn't hold. But he's slowly testing the 8300 again here. And if he does all that and successfully stays below the limit, then this is exactly what will happen for me, right? Just sort of drifted around.
One day, two days, one or two weeks.
Now we've been looking at this for almost exactly a week and a half, and if it starts to go down now, then it will really go down, I say that because then the short-term investors who are here will be afraid, then they will realize losses, because they are afraid that it will go down much, much more sharply. And as we've seen, the Clarity Act was typical sell news, so that was clear to me. Um, as Julian writes: "The downward C-wave will dishonorably take all the hops and nobody will have liquidity." Very, very well written.
Julian, you probably mean that we have no seller absorption, meaning we have little buyer liquidity below us. This means that the Cell Orders are consumed less by the Orders. I see it exactly the same way as you do. Absolutely. Plus some massive long leveraged positions below us. Um, so on a multi-month basis.
Christian writes: "Spx has fallen by 50 points and Bitcoin has crashed by 4000." Exactly, Christian. If we take a look at the Nastag and S&P 500 in a moment, we also see all the people who think things will be different this time. I heard that in 2021 as well. In a bear market, Bitcoin correlates with the gains of NASAQ, but not with the price [ahem] gaps. What do I mean by that? NASA's 20% rise is in its bull market, and Bitcoin is in a bear market. Bitcoin also rose by 30-40%, but NASA made a new hit, while for Bitcoin it was just a corrective in the bear market, a bullish corrective in a bear trend [ahem][cough] and it was the same before. The Nasdaq has risen in Bitcoin's bear market; Bitcoin rises, Nasdaq is sold off, but then Bitcoin falls proportionally much more sharply. And for me, the setup is perfect, really. I can show it to you again in a moment. So, [ahem] a big double bottom with higher lows is what John Wick writes. OK. Yes, that argument can be made, but only once the lower high has been confirmed. And the Lower High will only be confirmed later, John Rick. And it's really quite a gamble, but if we theoretically had the final low here at around 60,000, and we were to go down to, let's say, 64,000, and all 7 gaps had closed, then that would only be accepted as a higher low if we then—and this is also important—had broken the last lower high, because in fact, 82,500 is currently a lower high. That's the question right now, is n't it? So, if we break through this, things are going to take off. Then things really get going. But yes, we need to get above $82,000 after we've closed the seven gaps here, so you can say it's a double bottom, and conversely, for my bearish signal to be activated, we'd have to get below $60,000 for it to be activated for the time being. But we also had the double advantage here, which always has an extremely strong confluence, um, to be responsible for the bottom formation, right?
Very, very important, but we'll see. So far, for me, the double advantage has reacted extremely well.
Order flow is bearish, overleveraged long positions are what I see all the time.
Cycle theory, moving averages.
Despite positive news, we see Bitcoin being sold off again immediately. For me, it's absolutely like something out of a picture book. Yes, it attracts retailers, a few spot buyers come, but only a few. And those retailers who are long all the time, they don't actually buy Bitcoin, they just long all the time, they don't buy spot. Um, it's far too dangerous to speculate on Long. Stock markets, very precisely, Christian, very precisely. Um, already had 110 billion market cap in the next 6 weeks. Adas Chart. Yes. Yes, I already showed it earlier in the ADAS chat.
We have a bearish sequence that has already been tested here.
This ABC pattern was once tested with the 078 Fibonacci level of this overall movement here, but we also have the 088 level, which is frequently approached. That would be, for example, here at 116. My target zone doesn't go down to that point at all. It's still going down to 150, or 134 USellers, which is 134 billion.
But if [ahem] we take the level one approach here, that's important, right?
I'm talking about the number one level, then we see here that would also be at 123.23 billion US dollars. Either way.
[clears throat] Alcoins, bearish structure clearly activated. Alcoins is clearly a bear flag fakeout. After Berenflagge was reactivated, it worked through the entire bearish GKL, as we can see here.
And we have a bear-like one here, yes, it was tested once. You can see here that it's very, very close to being in the DT, but theoretically it wasn't really in there either, right? You can see below that DT tends to get filled. Absolutely clear. So yes, I agree, I'm saying Allcoins between 150, 133 billion US dollars, or is it really the case that we see it here on the one Fibonacci extension here at 121 billion US dollars with the 088 Fibonacci level? So, first of all, greetings go out to, um, 38 billion viewers.
[laughter] Joking aside, if you enjoy the livestream, please feel free to ask lots of questions. I really enjoy answering them.
Um, except for what I believe was the second-to-last livestream, where you insulted each other, I obviously did n't like that. Then please leave a like, a comment, and most importantly, a subscription for Kir and me. I would be really, really happy about that.
Bitcoin Cap asks a question: Why do n't you show yourself to your viewers? Because I am extremely shy.
All joking aside, no, I simply don't feel like it. So far, I'm fine with nobody knowing what I look like. Of course my friends know what I look like, since I have a YouTube channel. But, um, I do enjoy being at least partially anonymous. Um, because I mean, what difference would it make if you saw my face right now? The only thing I would change, um, is perhaps for some viewers, is that the video or livestream is a bit more tangible.
Um, but I don't see much added value in showing my face now, especially not for myself, one has to say at this point, but I can very well imagine that I will change that in the near future, but certainly not in the short term. Do you have a Low Taper F? [laughter] No, you probably know the haircut. No I haven't. I currently look more like, uh, a half- caveman because I have n't been to the hairdresser for another 4 weeks. That works too. Edn writes the Ednin hunter's best name. I think you have a South Park profile picture, right? I've seen some of those too. You can just about see it here. Um, yes, well, as I said, yes, I've already considered it quite a bit. I also have a very, very good camera for my distance learning course. I always need cameras for that, too. Yes, I have to let myself be filmed enough when I'm writing my exams. Um, but yes, not at the moment. Okay, thanks for your reply. Bitcoin Cap writes, "Like is out."
I would definitely give you a like just because of your name. Thanks anyway. Um, what do you think Enis thinks about BTC in the short to medium term?
So, I usually use three timeframes. Short-term, medium-term, long-term, short-term, so really only very, very short-term.
Now we have a double advantage here, as I said, very short-term on an hourly basis. We have addressed the bearish trend here, i.e., bearish target levels. They have a bullish GKL, but only in the short term, right? So, this is the short term. Um, that means it could rise again very quickly. Then, in the medium term, I expect that we will at least work through the 7600 to 75,000 US dollars. So, one could also describe this as medium-term. That means I myself would only enter another short or long trade once we've reached the 76,500 to 75,000 US level, then perhaps use the 05 to 0667 scaling as a short opportunity, i.e., between 79,400 and 80,500. This is now the short- to medium-term, and in the long term, a clear double advantage has been accepted. We've returned to the bear flag pattern, and in the long term, I'm thinking anything between $44,000 and approximately $50,000 or $55,000. Yes, we obviously have to wait for the next sequence. Let's say that was the local high for BTC. Then I definitely think we can see, or will see, 45,000 US dollars.
He doesn't want to make the same mistake as the wolf. No, John Wick, I think you have to, I believe Wolf already has almost 100,000 subscribers. I have some now, I really have to say, I'm still proud of them. 2350 subscribers. I haven't lost any now in the bear market. We gained a few more as well. Greetings to each and every one of you out there. Uh, it's always really, really fun to interact with you guys. Um, no, I have no problem if someone approached me on the street and, uh, I don't know, said, "Yes, you were wrong."
Of course, I would be happy if they said, yes, you were right, just like Christian.
That impresses me, of course. Greetings to Christian. Um, but so far anonymity has advantages and disadvantages, but no, I wouldn't be afraid. So, of course he's under enormous pressure, right? So, if we look at this, if Wolf posted something like this, right? The turning point is now, things are getting serious and if it doesn't happen, then of course thousands will criticize it again. Um, I would also say that everyone is responsible for themselves. I would say the same if I had a million subscribers. I can only say what I do.
I can show you how the system works. I can tell you that it works. I can do a macro analysis for you. But I can tell you something else, right?
I wasn't invested in Nastag this time.
I sold some of my shares, or my family's shares, here, and yes, I believe that was on March 27th, I think, so here where we were in the downward correction. Um, I've obviously already included this upward sequence here. I still thought it would continue to fall, and then it rose continuously for 4 weeks. But I'm playing the long-term game right now, aren't I?
So, I will really analyze Bitcoin with you here in the long term. Short-term for trades, long-term especially for spot purchases, and I have absolutely no problem if I'm wrong and nobody says anything to me about it. But I, yes, I just don't see any reason why I should be in here with my face, but I can understand that some people prefer it this way. Of course, I also like it when I 'm in someone's livestream and I see their facial expression, or when they laugh or something. I always find that hilarious too. Um, yes, it will definitely come, but not right now. Um, the wolf is running around with a target [laughter] on its back. But there are some harsh statements. I don't know if anyone harbors such hatred for him. Um, we've talked about him a few times already, but I'd like to stay out of it a bit. Um, he 's not particularly suitable for someone younger than me, I think four years, because they always say he's young, so he sometimes reacted a bit arrogantly or casually. Um, all I can say is, no, if I were to get that many subscribers now, that would definitely boost my ego, that would boost my self-confidence, that's quite clear. I still think he always made cool videos, especially in the beginning, when I used to watch him a lot. He inspired me to start with YouTube two or a year and a half ago, but he doesn't believe in chart analysis. I see things completely differently now, for example. But that's about it, right?
Otherwise, whatever the guy does, he should leave me alone. I'm leaving him alone, and yes, we saw back then what happened to, um, how do you say, Crypto Daddy, I think. I do n't know anymore. Let's take a quick look. Does anyone remember this guy? I think that's when the cryptowolf really became famous. Crypto, I think that was his name. I think that was his name here. Big Daddy Crypto. He started a beef with Wolf back then, and since then not a single video has been released, and Wolf's subscriber count has completely escalated. Yes, as you can see here, he completely stopped at 17.
I believe he threatened Wolf back then to publish his address. That clearly goes against my empathy points, or rather my sympathy points for Wolf. You just do n't do that. There's still a Team G at BTC? No, no, at 8100. No, no. Um, Valentin, I think you made a mistake there. I think you've made a mistake.
Um, I can show you briefly. Let's now look at the BTC USD from CMI. Here you can see the CMI gaps.
So.
[snorting] So, we had a gap here at around 80,000 or 81,000. We've closed that now. The only gap that theoretically still existed, the big one, was this one, which was located approximately here. umm, we didn't quite get to it. We've now reached 83200 here, and it went up to 83900. That's the really big one, we have that one here too. It's up here above us. But right now we have a sim gap at 79200, then we have one around 77800 to 77600, and then we have another one around 79000 and 67000. That's a very rough estimate. But I don't see any at 81,000. Well, I really don't see any. Um, I don't know when that was formed. We had one here, right? On May 11th. It was closed. And otherwise, right? So, we currently have one opening in the Bitcoin market among us, but otherwise, no, I'm afraid I can't agree with that. Um, there's a lot of hate and it's manipulated many people. So many were manipulated. Yes, I didn't think this analogy of him being a football coach was very good, because a football coach usually goes down with, or even before, the team's failure, and he didn't go down. He obviously made a lot of money from the stock market, right? Clearly. I don't think that's so bad, right? Of course, I'd also be happy if you used my affiliate link in the video description. Here's a 10% discount on every lifetime Future Trades account and VIP 2 for the first month if you sign up now via Bing X.
Um, but I think it's the way you interact with the audience. If someone says, "I already said that Q4 Alcoin Season didn't happen," or "I anticipated that Alcoin Season didn't happen," and then reacts passively-aggressively to people who sell or ask what's going on, and then those people—well, I'm just stating my observation, right? It has to be, because it's only subjectively, not objectively correct. Then he feels very strongly attacked, can't cope with the pressure, and before that, for example, he keeps saying that he'll always stay there and accompany people through the bear market, then takes a month's break, then asks people again if they want him to continue, then he continues, and then with statements like, "Anyone who is selling now is not worthy of experiencing the bull market," and so on.
I think that's a bit silly, don't you?
So, I mean, with Bitcoin I can proudly say that together we have repeatedly stated this bullish target zone, starting here at 122,000. I'm just saying what I did. I didn't say I sell everything, that would be a lie, but I did say I would sell a third or half of it every time we come in here. I did that too. Um, that obviously wasn't possible with the ICINS.
ECins have completely crashed, that's clear.
But yeah, I just don't like it when you're always dishing it out and can't take it, right? If you attack YouTuber A B Zy, and then, if you feel attacked yourself, then understand, if you are attacked, you say, I don't understand this, and um yeah, then just always take the heat, that sort of thing. But maybe that's just how it seemed to me. I always try to be very careful because, as I say about other people, I don't want, well, how can I put it, to get a little dirty from them, you know? or something goes against my car a little, but yeah, no, it doesn't matter.
Um, there isn't a Lester group here. I was wondering where the guy was, but I think he cashed out in time because this is his second bun.
My John Rick, I would argue that he did n't actually cash out. So it's not that big, so I personally think we shouldn't forget that he has good earnings through YouTube. Very, very good earnings, and he still has, I think, an Alcoin portfolio in the six-figure range, I suspect, so still, right? Back then mine was also in six figures, not anymore, but then again, I've sold half of it. Um, yeah, no, you do n't need that much money to be on vacation for that. I personally really don't think he's sold more than a third.
Um, because otherwise he was completely lying and he sold every time he said the bull run was coming, but I really don't believe that.
I actually believe him that he didn't sell, and what the buy zones look like when BTC corrects to 40. Absolutely, dear Julian, I wo n't look at the Alcoins again before then. I wo n't. John Wick writes: "I wondered." Okay, we've already covered that.
Valentin writes in Telegram: I posted 15 minutes ago. Okay, then take a quick look at my Telegram account if you say so. Okay, I'll just quickly sign up for Telegram.
Okay, hopefully it still works now. Ah, friends, friends of the sun.
What else is there to do here? Okay, let's take a quick look.
I'm registering right now.
Okay, so. Okay, it's been sent in.
Okay, what's going on here, friends?
Fight over a plastic cow.
[laughter] Okay. OK. Understood. Um, oh, I see. I think you have, um, could it be that you have some kind of indicator open that shows that? Um, that's how I could explain it, but I don't know how there could be a sim gap open now. Well, you can look at the chart yourself and it's really not that open. So, there really is no Steam G open.
So, not with the 81,000, that was more open here, right? So it was open here. Yes. And we have now closed that. It's completely closed. I think that looked like an indicator you sent in there. Um, like this.
Unless I miscounted somehow, but I do watch it regularly, of course, also for the videos. The gap was here. It was closed.
Okay, let's take another quick look.
I just read something about a supercycle. Wolf believed in a supercycle. The bull market was over by October. Clearly, the Bitcoin bull market ended in October. As per the four-year cycle theory. In October I thought, okay, come on, the alcoins often catch up a bit late and they haven't done anything yet in terms of outperforming Bitcoin.
We've always shown that here at ADAS BTC. I've already analyzed that to death with you all. Here you can see the ratio of Alcoins to BTC.
We see this small pump here, the Alcoins Bitcoin, so now in one week, right, the Alcoins have. Hey, what's that all about?
Alcoins outperformed Bitcoin by 10% in such a small candle. Look at how big this is compared to the overall picture, and in such a small pump, people are writing to me. Alcoin Season is starting, right?
That's complete nonsense. Um, we can see that, um, actually, the Alcoins haven't done anything here since wave A, so for 100,1570 days now. That did n't exist in the past.
But then I asked myself why, I keep telling you, I can calculate zones with the SK system, but not the times.
And then I started to look, okay, what could be the reason for all this?
And in my personal opinion, it's due to the ISM. The ISM index has always moved downwards in bear markets and upwards in bull markets, even before that. However, the ISM is still moving sideways, with an upward trend, but as I have said several times before, the ISM should not be taken too seriously due to the labor market, due to the so-called formation in the economy, and we have already measured the ISM consumer price indices. The increase is particularly significant because many people are currently buying crude oil, aluminum, and stainless steel due to overpriced products.
This also increases the ISM, and not only through production and increased hiring, because production is declining. People are being laid off, but the ISM still rises because the ISM prices, well, for the people in the economy who act as buyers, yes, e.g. Purchasing management and such are more expensive, and they're currently facing front runs, so I still don't take the approach seriously, and that's why I see that the risk on the market hasn't been that good yet. Only when these problems are resolved for me, such as the fact that we have so much youth unemployment in the USA and over 100,000 layoffs, will I be able to address them.
Last year we had a revision or overhaul of over one million jobs. So many people forget that. It was thought that there would be a million more jobs for an entire year than there actually were. We have an extremely poor Consumer Sentiment Index. Um, I don't see how it is.
The retail sector is coming around the corner with an extremely large amount of money. Especially not in the short term. That's why I'm sticking with it.
This could all go on until October. Until then, there will be no further inflation pains or policy cuts, and then perhaps very slowly these problems will change in October. Bitcoin has found its bottom. Then, until January, February, March, the gains will come very slowly, and then the economy will hopefully develop more positively again through, for example, new alliances between the USA and China through Clarity Acts, through other catalysts, but retail liquidity wo n't return overnight. Yes, so here we see it simply as aggregated volume measured in coins, not in money. It goes completely back, right? That's a complete flop. That's a complete flop. They will only start shaking again here when Bitcoin is sold off so heavily, and then they will sell. Once we drop below the average Bitcoin price, there will be a real sell-off. At 78400, if the price drops significantly by 2000, there will be a massive sell-off. I'm telling you this.
I'd even stake my reputation on that.
So, [sighs] those coin predictions were just nonsense from Wolf Ner 15x, he shot himself in the foot there. Um, yes, the problem is, I also analyzed some great target zones with the SK system, but only with the target zones after the bearish patterns had been broken, which hasn't happened, I must say. Wolf said okay, good. BTC follows the fiscal cycle from which it has recently deviated. Yes, what did he ultimately deviate from? No, October was October. Okay, let me show you something. I'll show you the last three now, so this cycle and the last two. Um, he really is n't. You probably mean post- harvesting, yes. But if we look at the last three cycles, I said Bitcoin topped in October. Here in blue 2017 18 Top. In green it was October 13th, and here it was currently October 7th, and the Low final was also October/November, as you can see here. So. Um, well, I watched it and he kept saying Q425 didn't have a season, but now it's started, exactly with the crew, which is also when Bitcoin had a strong sell-off, coinciding with October 10th.
No? So, when this huge historical liquidation crash happened, um, I was already, well, nervous.
I was already very, very, how can I say, no longer convinced of it, but then in January, when Bitcoin went significantly below 85,000, I said, in January, February, I also became a bear on Alcoins, but not on them. I've shown you the ISM several times, with all the details, but I also have to be neutral and say: "Hey, the ESM has now broken out upwards, it's gone above 50, but why is that? Because crude oil is so expensive or because the economy is being stimulated?" And as you know, I always look at liquidity, and liquidity only exists when the economy is doing well, and right now it's not doing so well.
Not globally anyway. Um, they're really going out of their way for plastic. [laughter] Okay, look. Let's take a quick look at the group. I actually wanted to show it. Okay, come on.
Fight over a plastic watch. So, I obviously have no idea, friends, right? Um, but yes, Germany in its best times, friends. I'm assuming this is Germany.
Anim Milano. [laughter] Oh yes, wonderful, friends, wonderful. You know it. Feel free to join the group if you'd like, friends. It's free, of course. Uh, there's a 7i gap in the 15-minute chart. Um, dear Valentin, the CMI gap appears in the 15-minute chart. This pattern forms when the daytime closes at 11 pm and then opens again at a higher or lower level.
15-minute chart. I can take a quick look, but I really don't see a G there. That might be a mistake.
Then Dominik writes: "Wolf was still bullish in December?"
Yes, I was still bullish in December, I have to honestly say, but it lessened in October. I was therefore more inclined to expect a relief rally.
Most people probably still remember that.
Then I said, "Um, where was it?" This was here. When we were so completely screwed up here, I said, maybe we can have a relief rally here. So, no, there was no relief rally. We can clearly see here that they no longer got into the 05 or 06 areas, and yes, as I said, in January and February, that was it for me. The analysis worked perfectly with Bitcoin as well. I think I was just trying to see something in Bitcoin that wasn't there, because, uh, I really wanted the Adas Char to rise. But I've been seeing this shoulder head/ shoulder formation for what feels like a year now, and yes, now it's become clear, perfectly activating the neckline, and if it holds and closes the week, then it's extremely bearish for the Alcoins. You can take a look at what happened last time, right? Shoulder, head, shoulder.
Then, um, yes, I actually think this should have been the neckline retest. So the neckline runs roughly like this. I'm finding the analogy a little difficult to grasp here, but I can definitely illustrate it better here. Um, let's do it this way. Here you can see the shoulder head and shoulder formation. So now, down here to the neckline, that's what 's down here in white, and we've perfectly tested the neckline here and now reacted extremely bearishly. So I'll stick with it, okay? So things look significantly worse for Alcoins than for Bitcoin. Bitcoin is experiencing a normal bear market; nothing particularly earth-shattering or terrible is happening.
They're up there, they're up there, they're up there. OK. BTC Top 25 is fakeout. I also have a reason for that. Okay, John Wick, honestly, I don't even want to hear it. I've discussed this with so many people who tell me it's not a bear market, even though every important indicator, which has been around for a long time, still shows that it is.
Oh well, okay.
Hmm, nothing new yet. Let's see.
You know, John Wick, the problem is, you can give me one reason why we 're in a bull market and I can give you 20 reasons why we're in a bear market.
And not just cycle theory, everything. Open interest always declines at the end of a bull market. You can see it here. Maximum Open Interest is declining. How was the last Bärenmark? I can show you that too. Again, the analogy to bear flags is perfect. Look here.
Open interest peak at the Bitcoin price. Open interest plummets, price collapses. Then we saw the police flag here back then, it was here. Then open interest goes up, boom, crash.
Then, to reiterate, interest rises, boom, a crash. Here also.
This is a perfect fit, because leveraged traders are more driven by FOMO than spot buyers.
Many spot buyers are now waiting, saying, " I'm waiting for 50,000, 40,000." Then a few people come along and say, the majority thinks Bitcoin will reach 50,000, and I have reverse psychology, that's why it's not happening. Then they go long, Bitcoin pumps 30, 40% and then they are completely liquidated on the liquidation heatmap here. Yes, as can be seen here right now, those were the aggressive long traders, and then it goes even further down because we are now approaching the short-term average cost price, and that's where it becomes dangerous for the spot buyers. Yes, very, very important.
Nobody talks about it because most people are clueless. When was there a BL top during QT?
During QT. You mean during Qi QT, which is Titaning.
That was a fake top. Okay, all right.
[laughter] A fake top. Okay, the problem is John Wick, you're picking out one or two YouTubers out there to criticize him. Yes, look, I'm looking at the balance sheet here, I know that last time too. You probably mean Q, not QT. You wrote exactly. OK. So, we had long QALS back then, from 2012 to 2014.
Then here, this was the Giga QI, the bomb QI. Sure, if something like that existed, Bitcoin would be pumping money right now.
We don't need to say anything about that.
2025 was still QT. Yes, yes, there was also QT, so it fits then. The problem is, total liquidity is not determined by Q and QT; it's determined by everything, right? So, through the TGA account. And if I show you the TGA account now, or you know what, I'll show you this graph here.
These are three extremely important facts.
Orange is for Repo stores, blue for TGA and black for TGE.
Excuse me, balance sheet. All three must be right for Bitcoin to pump sustainably. So far, only one fits. The TGA account increases in blue. However, it should fall like in 2020/21, but that is not the case. It continues to build.
Repo transactions are increasing slightly. Very aggressive, meaning a bit more liquidity for banks, but not like before.
And then we see the QI balance sheet, right? So, if I show you the line here, we see QI here, but now look at the overall view and you can see how Lushch the whole thing is. This is Soft Q, it's not officially called that, but to me it's Qi Light or Qi Soft or Soft Qi. Um, but the argument that there is no Boran if QT or Q and so on. This is our first time in a completely new market.
We now have ETFs, then people say, yes, we've now had ETFs for the first time, and blah blah blah. Um, but the most important things behave as before, namely the analogy of Bitcoin to NASAQ, the analogy to Open Interest, the analogy to the four- year cycle, and so on. Check the data. There was no Burantop during QT. It was Q or QT stop. Yes, John Wick, that may all be true, but you're basically just talking about whether it was QI or QT and whether there was a top or not. But as I said before, you tell me one reason why we are still in Boran. I'll tell you 20 reasons why we aren't anymore. Do you know what i mean? I can only list them.
So, look, we can do it very simply, very simply.
So, so, so, so, so. Look here. Bitcoin has perfectly, I mean absolutely perfectly, taken the 100th EMA into account. Okay, now look here. I think, oh no, not EMA, sorry. Yes, it must have been. So, back then it was pretty much the same, right? You see here, [ahem] the 50-period moving average on the weekly view was accepted and after we broke through it, which is what happened here, we were in a bear market. Then there was a retest, and then it continued. We have broken through the 50-period moving average, so it's a bear market. Then it continued.
We haven't retested that one yet.
Theoretically, it could even go up to $93,000. I think we'll get there. Absolutely not. I absolutely don't see us getting there.
Um, but this is, for example, one of the main indicators. But if I show you the heavy artillery right now, you'll see the following. Let me show you briefly.
And now, present me with a whole range of important indicators.
Wait like this. Casy writes that they have a reservation for dinner at 6:30 am. Oh dear, friends.
I have to leave right away. So, very briefly, where was it? Where was it?
So, the very first thing that has worked absolutely fantastically well in every bear market was to look at the unrealized losses and also the profits, and every time the people who are in the plus and in the minus have approached at least the zero line. What do I mean by that? The zero line would be here, that would be approximately at, I think, can you even see that straight ahead? I think you can't even see it, but so far there have been a maximum of 20% more people in profit than in loss. Therefore, NOPL + 20 and it must at least go to zero, as is the case here in 2022. You can even see negative values, but I'm saying at least zero, I'm not even saying negative, but at least in the zero range. That was the case in 2022. That was also the case here. Where was that also the case in 2018? Then I can show you again, for example, where was it?
I think you can see it best here at the SOP. Spend output profit ratio, i.e., whether you bought a Bitcoin cheaply and sold it for a higher price. And now look at these downward spikes. Bear market here, bear market there. They were much, much stronger further down. Here too, in the last three bear markets, as is currently the case, nothing has happened yet. The downward spike was really nothing at all. Um, so we see there was too little pain in the market, too few people were really in loss, and you can see it everywhere. It's very, very clear. So for me it's quite clear, and putting all that aside, we're just using the SK system, which has never let me down since I started using it.
Even then, friends, even then we see very, very clearly the confluence showing us. We are still fully in the bear market. The fact that each double advantage has held up so well is remarkable. The mere fact that we have returned to the bear flag here [ahem] and the mere fact that we now have the Clarity Act here and I believe the second instance has now accordingly, um, where it has been waved through, is working. We briefly saw a fake pump followed immediately by a sell-off, and I can show you here using the order flows that we only have leveraged traders, while spot traders are selling off and even selling off significantly when the price starts to fall. So for me it's clear, and you would be arguing completely against the four-year cycle, where even the block trainer, one of the YouTubers for Bitcoin, who is a specialist in Bitcoin, even he says the cycle continues, and he obviously knows more about Bitcoin than I do, especially the fundamentals. It remains absolutely clear to me, it remains totally clear to me. And again, how we can manage in an environment with such high inflation right now, I just wanted to show you.
So how can one even speak of better or increasing liquidity in an environment with such drastic inflation? It makes absolutely no sense. Come here. Unfortunately, since the conflict, or rather since February, inflation has been on the rise again. And we see here that global M2 liquidity is declining again, because I'm going to show you what's much more important, like Q or QT or TGA or Balance Sheet and so on. The question is how quickly the M2 money supply is growing. It's not that it grows, it usually grows constantly in the modern banking system.
It grows every year, but the question is how fast it grows.
Growth was 14% per year in 2018, and almost 20% in 2021. But now they have reached their maximum point here at 12% growth. That was back in February, and now we're currently at between 7 and 8%, so we've dropped significantly again. And if this trend continues, then the liquidity indicator for Bitcoin will be number 1, and I'm talking about available liquidity. I'm not talking, friends, that 's very, very important to me. I'm not talking about the M2 here. Okay, I'm talking about how much the M2 is growing compared to before, because it's always about the proportions. I can also tell you, yes, cars are getting faster and faster because they have more horsepower. The question is how fast the progress is from one year to the next. So, do you have 20 more horsepower than before, or suddenly 100 more horsepower, right? So, in terms of liquidity, more momentum is available, and just because the M2 increases in the form of loan transactions doesn't mean that people can directly spend their loans on Bitcoin. That's only the case if things are going well at the ISM and they take out an additional loan, which they ca n't do with it. Could you please do an analysis of Strategy? That would be nice. Thank you very much. Okay, let's take a quick look at each other.
Uh, I'm thinking a maximum of 65k and a decline towards 100k. Okay, John Wick, I'll definitely remember the name, but most importantly, on an equal basis, right? Whether you or I get it wrong makes absolutely no difference. You are allowed to have your own opinion. Hi Casy. Uh, my Christian M2 will climb endlessly, but it depends on the speed. Perfectly expressed. The M2 will always increase in the modern Fiat system. That's why real estate is becoming increasingly expensive, because people are now more likely to buy things on credit, as they have a long-term time horizon. So, considering that they want to consume now and not in the future. And that's the problem, why everything is becoming more and more devalued. Incidentally, that's why Kevin Wars says he'd rather not have a Q anymore, which is also very bearish, but yes, very, very true. It's about how quickly liquidity gets into the system, because the faster it gets into the system, the more there is left for speculation.
If only a little grows, then there is less left for speculation. So. M.
Exactly. Um, I think October 10th has taken a lot of trust away in this crypto space. Um, because it shows how easily the big fish can fleece us. Absolutely, Rafael, you are completely right. The Clarity Act may improve or strengthen the foundation, but then there wo n't be a Boran now because of it; instead, there will be more stable Burns in the long run with less severe corrections. Look at gold, Nastag, but also Bitcoin now.
But I'm mainly interested in the Alcoins. Clarity Actuates Alcoins. Very, very, very, very important.
That's correct. Okay, friends, we've been doing the livestream for almost an hour and a half now.
Please smash the like button! I would be really, really happy about that, and so would dear Akira, of course.
And if you have any questions, please feel free to ask them in the chat. Please feel free to join our Telegram group. We mainly write about crypto here, although not always completely free of charge. Feel free to come in. I also occasionally send in all my charts, so the most important charts at that point. I was just about to show you up here. As you can see, I always send you the most important indicators.
We've already made progress here with Ethereum as well. I sent you in before it happened.
Here above you can see that this was when the Adas Chat was at 196 billion, now it's always significantly lower. So I really try to keep you all updated here.
So, otherwise, what else did we want? Strategy stock. So, Strategy, Strategy, so here too very very interesting actually such a short-term bearish sequence has been dealt with.
We have now entered the bullish sequence, as can be seen here in yellow. So I'm talking about this one here. That's exactly where we came in. That means my primary expectation now is that the Strategy stock will fall to between $150 and $134, or at least fall. Yes, it is of course very, very strictly oriented towards Bitcoin.
Um, then, in a more general sense, it clearly overcorrected, even falling below the bullish GKL range.
Which group do I avoid? My group is now being blocked. John Rick, I wo n't block you as long as you don't insult anyone, okay? And if you write that Bitcoin is still in a bull run, that's no problem at all. I'm really looking forward to another mascot in the group. [laughter] No offense intended, but if you bring a good mood, you won't cause any problems at all. Just don't insult anyone, and of course don't spam, but you're welcome to come in. I won't block you unless you're insulting someone nonstop, okay? But otherwise, no.
You don't need to worry. Dominik writes: "The masses still believe in a supercycle. [This is followed by a comment from Dominik and even if it is true."] The crowd is bullish, the crowd is beish, friends, the crowd is simply gone. The mass is simply gone. If a few people on Twitter write, "I'm going short," and then someone says, "There's a supercycle." Yeah, look, everyone's saying they're going short now, and because the masses are going short, it's going up. But still, whether I go long or whether I make a video for you and ten other YouTubers too, I'll go short. The crowd is gone, friends. The mass is gone. They are Coinbase App Downloads, they are Google Trends. The crowd is gone, friends. The mass is really gone. So, in the short term, I expect a downward correction in Strategy. Now the question is, aha, we already have a double advantage, and that applies here as well. Perfect example for the Crewhunter, if you're still around.
The Crewhunter is a perfect example of how the double advantage is created.
We have a bullish trend reversal zone here, but then we have a bearish downward movement, right? And that's exactly how it all comes about. So yes, in the short term it's rather harsh.
Well, in the long term, I can't actually predict anything for you yet. Um, or just speculate, because I'd have to wait for something like this to happen, right? So. Um, yeah, otherwise, for long-term purchases, you can also see it here below in red. I bought it at $112 down to $2. Well, I had definitely speculated about that. I think that was the 088 zone. No, that was actually the case at times. Exactly. I only bought here at the bearish target level. So Strategy could fall even further.
Bearish in the short term. Clearly.
Long-term. Yes, it depends.
According to the SK system, I am only allowed to take a short position. Either here at 05 to 066. I'm not going to wait until it goes there again. I think it's more a case of either buying your shares here at $150 to $135, which gives you good prices, or focusing on Bitcoin, which is what I personally would do, and just waiting to see what happens, right? Strategy will naturally be clearly guided by this.
John Wick writes: "The masses are usually wrong." Yes, John Wick, but the question is, if the masses aren't speculating at all, but are simply gone and have their eyes on the Nasdack, then the masses aren't wrong, they simply have no evaluation whatsoever. She doesn't rate Bitcoin positively, neutrally, or negatively; she simply leaves it alone. If 100 people out of a maximum of 100 are present and they are all bearish and short, then of course a giga short squeeze can occur. But if, out of these 100 people, as I estimate, only 20 or 30 remain, and most of them are Alcoiners, because most Bitcoiners I know are completely relaxed, they buy all the time when it goes down, but they don't go long, they're long-term, it's more the Alcoiners who are predicting a great cycle right now, in my opinion, and less so the Bitcoiners, because the Bitcoiners are satisfied, since they bought 1000 at 20,000, then 1000 at 30,000, and they're buying again now.
Yes, but nobody is interested in crypto right now except for scum. That's exactly the Crewter, that's what happens when the masses are wrong, John Wick can only be wrong if they say it's going down. But the masses say nothing at all. The mass is simply gone.
[snorting] You can see it with the Clarity Act, when it passed, if the mass had been there yesterday, I'll show you briefly, if the mass had been there, then the entire volume would have risen to the top, right? But it is n't. Yes, it really isn't. Yes, we can see here that the aggregated spot volume was there for 2 hours. That's it. Then it was completely dead again. Yes, while spot, excuse me, open interest was up here, and then suddenly everyone went really short for a short time, and then now they're long again, right? This means that much more leverage is being used in trading, and you can see it being sold off down here at Coinbase Premium. It's being massively sold off all the time. But whatever.
Pappenheimer writes: "Good morning to all."
Penheimer, I'm sorry to disappoint you here. Um, so, I definitely have to go now. My owner is going to drive me crazy otherwise. Um, first of all, greetings to Dennis Pengu, Dominik, John Wick, the Crewhunter, and everyone else, including Pappenheimer. But I absolutely have to stop now.
Um, shift workers, you know what's up. Feel free to join our group, or rather, our group, if you want to join, it's completely free. And if you want 10% on Bing X for all leveraged trades, so completely for life, feel free to drop by as well. So, dear Christian writes: "Enjoy your meal." I do.
Thank you. Pappenheimer and Smiley and John Wick write: "Ciao and now it says: "Hello". Okay, that's really weird.
Um, like I said, see you next time, friends. Thanks for listening.
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