Elon Musk Did Carve Out Special Tesla Shareholders Deal on SpaceX IPO

追加: 2026-05-31

[00:00:01]Bradford Ferguson of Rebellionaire Fame is here today. And uh what a great time to be allin on Tesla except and here's the first story for today.

[00:00:13]I'm wondering if there might actually be too much optimism around Tesla right now. I mean, they've got great sales going on. Roboaxi is on the brink and on the brink and on the brink, but one of these days it's going to go over the brink. Baron's top technical analyst today putting a bullish 780 price target for next year. All of the cohorts, all of my co-hosts, all everybody's optimistic. Larry thinks it's the merger, the optionality on the merger.

[00:00:41]Nicks thinks it's the momentum. Jeff thinks it's a great technical setup.

[00:00:45]Brian is always is still staying with his 600 or higher this year. CERN agreeing that even car sales are helping the stock price. That's a lot of optimism just for my show. And I think in general we're hearing a lot of optimism. Too much about right. What do you think?

[00:01:04]>> I think it's okay. Uh I I do think maybe sentiment got too low when we were down at 360 a share. Um so to be closer to like 440 you um isn't like super surprising. Um Cyber Cab we're waiting on. It seems like cyber cabs asleep, right? Um >> yeah, >> and I have a little theory on that. We can get to that. But there's, you know, there's some momentum in Europe with FSD getting approved. Um the Tesla raised their prices whereas a lot of car makers are struggling to their sales have been dropping. So for Tesla to raise prices in the face of other automakers dropping um I think is a a great sign of relative strength. Now I know you know we're not supposed to care about Tesla selling cars anymore.

[00:02:05]>> But there was some great but there was some great news out this morning on FSD number of miles driven uh May over June up like I don't know 30% compared just in one month. That's that's that's very strong. That's really good.

[00:02:20]>> Yeah. So FSD of course would we want we want those uh subscriptions.

[00:02:26]We want people to sign up.

[00:02:29]>> So anyway, what are you guys call What are you guys calling right now? You uh uh I know you're probably not ready to make a call for this second quarter sales yet, but are you thinking we bust through 500 and go into new territory?

[00:02:45]not not necessarily. Um, so you know, we're wondering, okay, what's what's the catalyst going to be? Um, I think the quarter is generally going to be a good quarter. We're raising prices. I think that's that's a a a good sign for the quarter.

[00:03:03]You're not, you know, focusing on incentives or lowering prices. We're actually raising prices. So, I think that's a >> a good sign of strength. And uh it it FSD as you say up 30% month over month.

[00:03:19]Uh that's a really good sign for uh people using the subscription more. Um I I think it also means just people are getting more comfortable with it. Uh I I've been using it all the time, but I'm I'm an early adopter. I'm I've been using FSD for a number of years now. Um, I think I was like one year after the original uh the OGs of FSD beta, like I got in a year after them when everybody like was doing the driver scores, you know, all that stuff.

[00:03:58]>> Yeah.

[00:03:59]>> So, it it's been a while and I'm really comfortable with it, but like your your average Tesla owner, it seems like people are just getting more and more comfortable with it. So, I think that's a really good sign. I I think FSD is like besides like air conditioning in the summer, um you know, having your car drive you around is incredibly luxurious. And I I think people are going to want to have that as a a service in their car.

[00:04:30]>> Well, somebody had a nice post, but it was I think stating the obvious that it's just you arrive at your destin if you become comfortable with it. Now, in the beginning, you might be a little more anxious. You might not get to your destination more more uh relaxed. You might get to your destination a little more anxious because you're not ready for you're still okay. What's it going to do? Is it going to be okay? But once once you get comfortable with it, >> uh then uh you actually arrive, you can drive way more hours >> without a day without fatigue. uh you could drive home in rush hour traffic, stop and go and it's not doesn't create anxiety. I think the one of the points in the post was you don't sit there at the stoplight waiting for it to change.

[00:05:18]>> You're basically not you don't care when it changes. It's just it's okay.

[00:05:23]The end of road rage.

[00:05:25]>> Yeah. You don't care if people cut in on you. Like the car handles it. Car doesn't get mad at the other car.

[00:05:32]>> Right. Exactly.

[00:05:34]And it's it's doing some really cool things like it um it parked in my driveway in a totally different way it had never done before.

[00:05:43]>> Um so it I haven't gotten it to repeat it but it it um I I'll do this turn and then I back into a spot where I have my charging cord and it it did that.

[00:05:56]>> At least >> I think it like saw the charging cord and did it. Yeah.

[00:06:02]>> All right. Let's see. we've got this um IPO coming up and everybody was very anxious about getting in on the IPO uh from the Tesla community and Elon had said he would make a special carveout.

[00:06:13]You did a post the other day uh on Friday, I think, where you broke news about there was a special carve out. I'm not sure anybody fully understands it yet. Um but maybe you could run us through it a little bit in terms of how you're seeing it. Uh is it special enough? Uh what what what how do you think this is all going to work?

[00:06:35]>> Yeah, it won't be special enough for some, but it's a huge change. Uh Elon gave instructions to all the people receiving the allocations that um they cannot handle it how they've handled IPOs in the past.

[00:06:52]>> So this will be all the major banks and >> companies that have access to the IPO shares. Yeah.

[00:07:01]>> Yeah. So, any any uh any place that got access to IPO shares, they have to handle it differently. And I'll I'll tell you about it in a second. But what was ironic about this is Bill Gurley, he's a big uh private equity person.

[00:07:16]He's he uh he he quote posted me and I was like, you know, um you know, uh I was talking about the IPO and he's like, that's not how it works. Oh, >> he didn't know anything about what Elon had said about um you know loyalty begets loyalty and how Tesla tracks shares. So >> uh >> they track shares so you can vote on say for the quarterly calls. They track shares for your event >> um attendance.

[00:07:51]>> So I don't think Bill knew all that history. Um he's not like a super nerd, a super Tesla nerd. So I'll give him a pass. So then then um I found out uh these special carveouts. So um any any custodian so like Schwab's a custodian, Fidelity's a custodian, Robin Hood's a custodian, none of them are allowed to give um preferential treatment to their largest clients. Oh, okay. Not allowed to.

[00:08:26]>> So, you know, just because they have a billion dollars, it doesn't mean they get more of the requested allocation.

[00:08:34]So, in the past, what Bill Gurley says is that um it's this captured insiders game where a firm like Schwab would favor the largest wealth management firms in the country. They would favor their largest individual clients.

[00:08:54]And um for them to receive shares, they are expressly prohibited from doing that.

[00:09:00]>> Wow, that's big.

[00:09:03]>> Yeah, that's big. Um the other thing is that any account that qualifies um must get at least one share if if there are shares available.

[00:09:16]>> Okay. Okay. So, even if you're uh um as long as you're a qualifying account, and I'll I'll share what I know about qualification in a second here, and and this is not financial advice to participate in the IPO. I'm just sharing how it works. Um, so like as long as you qualify, if you request uh the dollar amount for at least one share, then Elon says you must get that one share.

[00:09:50]>> Okay?

[00:09:51]>> And then after everyone gets at least one share, then it's allocated on a PR rata basis based off of what people request for their allocation.

[00:10:02]>> Okay. Okay. So, um, I'll, you know, provide a further example. So, you know, between you and Ron Baron, you both would get at least one share, >> right?

[00:10:14]>> But Ron Baron wants a billion dollars.

[00:10:16]He said this publicly, >> right?

[00:10:19]>> And let's just pretend you want uh a million dollars, Randy.

[00:10:24]>> Uhhuh.

[00:10:25]>> You would get a thousand times less shares, >> right, >> than Ron, but you might get more than one share.

[00:10:32]>> Right. Right.

[00:10:33]>> Uh, so that's how it's going to work.

[00:10:35]Now, it doesn't matter that Ron if Ron has a hundred billion in his account or 20.

[00:10:43]>> That's not allowed to affect the allocation. It's how much allocation he he requests.

[00:10:52]>> Okay, >> this is this is actually pretty funny because I'm sitting here thinking this actually creates an auction. This creates like, well, I've gotta I gotta order more if I want to get allocated X, you know, I gota I got to order Y if I want to get X. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:11:12]>> I I do think this this is just my instinct. Um I do think that demand for the IPO is very high. Yeah.

[00:11:23]>> Um there are I I met a chunk of people who are not owners of Tesla stock uh who want in on the IPO.

[00:11:33]>> Um so it's not like they're, you know, just all in on Elon Musk. They're >> um excited about SpaceX in a way that they're not um that's different from, you know, their excitement around Tesla.

[00:11:49]You know, they're not as excited about Tesla.

[00:11:52]>> Yeah. So, the only negative here is that there's no preference for Tesla shareholders.

[00:12:01]And I suspect there's a couple reasons for that. I don't know what the the defining or overriding reason is. I'm not in the room, but I I'm speculating here. So, one would be around uh privacy. So like Tesla has this information around your shares.

[00:12:23]>> Um they're not allowed to just share it with SpaceX.

[00:12:28]>> Um so that's one thing is there's a a privacy thing. Um and you you maybe like Elon was hoping that X payments would get to this level where you know somehow X payments could use their technology to handle all this. Mhm.

[00:12:46]>> Um but it's not, you know, where it needs to be. Um and and I think the the systems that these custodians such as Schwab, you know, Morgan Stanley, Fidelity, you know, while they do have electronic systems, uh they don't automagically talk to each other.

[00:13:08]>> Right. Right. So I I think it's is one of those factors that blocked it from where um preferential treatment could be given to Tesla shareholders.

[00:13:20]>> Got it. Got it.

[00:13:21]>> But this is a huge shift.

[00:13:24]So, you know, essentially in the past with IPOs, if if you didn't have your money with the largest wealth managers, if you didn't have the largest accounts at that custodian, you would be shut out 100%.

[00:13:40]>> From IPOs, unless there wasn't much demand, >> right? Yeah. And and it was not and it wasn't uh even mechanical in my understanding. It might be your best friend that you call first, right? Not even the guy with the biggest account >> is up to the discretion of the the custodian.

[00:14:00]>> So it, you know, is it like a old boys network? So this is a big change and >> um I'm curious to see if the SpaceX IPO is very successful and like how much they're able to raise and if they're overs subscribed. I'm curious to see if uh other IPOs, other large ones especially, uh impose similar rules to prevent the old boys network from coming back.

[00:14:28]>> Yeah.

[00:14:29]>> Interesting. Wow. Elon could be changing changing another industry.

[00:14:35]>> Yeah.

[00:14:36]>> Or he probably didn't in go out intending to to uh change the old boys network. He just wanted to do a nice thing for the Tesla shareholders. Yeah.

[00:14:47]>> All right. So, we have uh you know, several major folks in there and I think you were saying that there's different requirements that Oh, yeah.

[00:14:57]>> at least one of them still requires that you have like a million dollars in your account to even play.

[00:15:04]>> So, this is what I've heard and and maybe Elon will give them a tap on the shoulder and say, you know, hey, if you want more sharers, you can't you can't do this. But Morgan Stanley, you have to have a million dollars with them. That's what I've heard. So, you know, these could be wrong. This information could be wrong. Uh Fidelity, you need to have 500,000 with them. Uh Schwab is a 100,000 and uh Robin Hood is there's no minimum.

[00:15:34]So, like any Robin Hood account size, uh if you request a share, I think you'll be able to get a share. So, >> I'm guessing they're getting like at least a million shares, but you know, maybe not.

[00:15:48]>> I think I heard that Erade was also zero, even though Erade is a division of I forget Morgan Stanley.

[00:15:55]>> Morgan Stanley, maybe.

[00:15:57]>> Yeah. So, but Erade, I believe, is also zero. You don't have to have any But I've had multiple people on on my X account going, I'm trying to do this on E Trade and I can't get it to work. So, I asked Rock how to do that and I put that up. if I posted it on X, but I'm I'm not sure that it's worked for anybody. Nobody's posted me back saying, "Oh, thank you. Thank you, Randy, for for giving us those instructions." So, there may be complications also out there in terms of people figuring out how to uh to do the thing.

[00:16:28]>> So, Elon did do something. So, I'm I was >> thrilled to find this out.

[00:16:36]>> Okay. And for whatever reason, I was like the first person in the world to figure this out.

[00:16:40]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's It's great.

[00:16:43]>> I'm just a kid in Indiana.

[00:16:47]>> Yeah. You talk. Never mind. I got a long story about that, but it's not I don't think it would sell that well. Anyway, um you said a minute ago that you think you might have another reason, yet another reason for the slow roll out of cyber cabs. Um uh we've we've got a slow roll out of the entire system. of course whether it's cyber cabs or robo taxis and various peoples have said various people have said various things of what they think that is I think Brian Wong thinks it's having to do with infrastructure I I'll get it wrong some people think it might be infrastructure issues other people think it might be last last 100 feet issues other people think it might be well let's wait for one more round of FSD before we do this it might just be that much better um anyway all kinds of reasons But you think part of the reason might be >> that um they need to do a conversion for the form factor of Cyber Cab um and the control system of Cyber Cab.

[00:17:50]So um when Cybertruck first came out, it was at least 6 months before they got FSD out for Cybertruck. I I think it might have been like um from when I got my Cybert truck it was like seven or eight months u but I think from the first delivery is is closer to a year.

[00:18:13]>> Mhm.

[00:18:14]>> Um so like the the problem with the Cybert truck is the cameras were in a different place. Um it's a different size vehicle.

[00:18:25]So like the far the far corners of the Cybert truck, you know, on on the far corners, those are at different places compared to the the cameras. So you couldn't just, you know, even though the X is a a decent sized vehicle, the Model X, you couldn't just uh give it the rules or or the model for the X, and expect it to like not clip the corner of things. People also said the steer by wire and the ability to have four-wheel four-wheel drive if you will, four-wheel turns, you know, the back wheels actually turning that these might have also been really uh a problem for the truck.

[00:19:07]>> Yeah, that was I I believe even um the head of Tesla AI u mentioned that.

[00:19:14]>> Um I'm spacing on his name right now. Um so yeah, different control mechanisms.

[00:19:20]So they had to, you know, get that figured out and translated.

[00:19:25]Um, so, you know, with Cyber Cab, I'm guessing this is something they're working on and, um, u I'd say hopefully they'll figure this out by September, >> uh, worst case by year end.

[00:19:44]Um so like in in addition to the other things they're working on such as infrastructure and and you know remote teleoperation and dealing with incidents and you know having the people in place and all that stuff. Um they're probably dialing in the software. So I don't think they're necessarily waiting for version 15 but you know maybe that is something that Elon has his heart set on.

[00:20:12]>> Okay. Okay. And then you last week said that you're neutral on the merger. You you have shares in both. And uh during the week though, I think you posted that you're like people got to get more understanding of what this SpaceX valuation is really all about. So I did a whole show this morning actually.

[00:20:33]People can go back and uh see this show, right? Yes. This morning people can go back and look. Brian Wong uh on Monday he did an a projection of sales for 26 27 28 then this morning he did a projection of earnings for 26 27 28 and 29 >> um so that people can get a better handle on price earnings ratios or sales to price ratios and this kind kind of thing. So um uh what what what we have right now is the press for the last five days. All they can talk about is the merger.

[00:21:15]What do you think's going on there? Why is the press I mean I'm talking about three to four headlines a day and that's I look at a thousand headlines a day >> and to see three or four out of that thousand and when I say a thousand a day that means everything from what is Trump doing you know his stats right now to uh you know to uh what's happening with the price of oil um and to have that many headlines a day has been really weird.

[00:21:42]So what what do you think's going on there?

[00:21:45]So now is when I put on my tinfoil hat.

[00:21:48]>> Okay.

[00:21:51]>> Yeah. I I think I think there's a lot of people who want to buy SpaceX who, you know, don't really understand what Tesla would add to SpaceX.

[00:22:03]They don't understand why Tesla would merge with SpaceX. They're not, you know, watching uh your show. They're they're not watching other shows on YouTube. They're they're not, you know, crazy early adopters on X.

[00:22:19]>> Um they're just excited about, you know, SpaceX and the the internet, the satellite internet, things like that. Um so they don't understand, they don't understand it. And I think in general it hurts uh the valuation of SpaceX to be talking about a Tesla merger cuz right now SpaceX is the larger of the two companies and >> by market cap >> by market cap and like if if they were to merge at their current market caps um then SpaceX would be like 60% of the total and Tesla would be like 40%. %. So SpaceX shareholders would own 60% of the economics um rather than um you know what it was flipped you know.

[00:23:13]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:23:14]>> Maybe six seven months ago um where you know Tesla shareholders would have owned 60%. So like these differences in valuation matter a lot.

[00:23:24]>> Okay. And you know, a point I made a few weeks ago is like if Tesla really got credit for robo taxi, um that it wouldn't be at $440 a share.

[00:23:39]>> Yeah.

[00:23:40]>> So, um you know, we've talked about our valuation for uh roboaxi. Our valuation is 1,100 a share just for um a successful robo taxi without licensing it and you know being able to sell FSD and increase your subscription price on that.

[00:24:00]>> Um we think that's 1,100 a share. So like if that's the and that's the present value once once it really starts going and we're really close to it you know starting to ram or we should be within a year of that. So, so like essentially at 440 a share, the market is assigning, let's just say the only thing they assign value to is robo taxi.

[00:24:26]They're assigning 40% probability that Tesla is, you know, a dominant successful player in autonomy.

[00:24:35]>> And they're assigning zero value for Optimus.

[00:24:38]>> Yeah. Yeah. Zero value for anything else, for energy, for Right. I mean, I think they are assigning some some of the guys that do the the some of some of the um some of the parts do talk about how much they're valuing the cars, how much they're valuing the energy division, but but only recently have we seen any of them put a value in for Optimus.

[00:25:02]>> Yeah. And you know, there's you people have given pretty high valuations for Optimus. Um >> yeah. Um I think you know CERN Basher has talked about over 20 trillion dollars. Um we put out our own valuation before um he did that one where we talked about it being worth 26 trillion.

[00:25:27]>> Um and that like when Optimus starts in earnest essentially it's worth $3,500 a share.

[00:25:34]>> Yeah. So um you know what's what's a chance? Let me ask you this Randy.

[00:25:40]>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. What's the chance of success with Optimus? Like do you think it's 20% chance that Tesla is >> successful with Optimus?

[00:25:50]>> I think it's a 95% chance.

[00:25:52]>> Okay. So then like you know maybe our valuation is a little too rosy or whatever but like you know the the market is basically saying you it's zero or like if if you only give Optimus if you only value Optimus and you don't care about the rest of Tesla. that's saying >> there's less than 20% chance that they're successful and dominant with Optimus and we think these probabilities are way too low.

[00:26:19]>> The the thing about Optimus that I would think that people would be smart enough to contemplate is let's say we are really wrong. Let's say that Tesla comes out with a robot that's just as good as everybody else's.

[00:26:34]But let's see. Tesla has manufacturing capacity capability way more than anybody else. Tesla has manufacturing skills that are better than anybody else. So, they're going to end up with a lower cost of goods. Uh Tesla has iteration capabilities. Their software chip alone, the FSD chip, is there's nobody on the planet that's got anything like it in terms of cost to value. Um, so even if the initial outofthe-box Optimus and Figure and something in China all have the same capabilities, Tesla's going to beat them all in terms of cost of goods and probably in terms of some other value ads. Mhm.

[00:27:16]>> Now then the TAM is, you know, three per person, two per person. You pick your TAM, but it's billions and billions of humanoid robots. According to Elon and probably according to your analysis, certainly according to mine and CERN's analysis out the gate, CERN and I I was at $600, but I've come around to to CERN's analysis, which is $1,000 a month would thou I'm sorry, $100,000 a year would be the right amount to charge. And that businesses would line up. My business would have lined up. I I would have written a check for 100 and I had a little tiny business 5 million in sales.

[00:28:00]I would have lined up all day long for $100,000 a year per Optimus because it was going to replace four employees because I had four shifts.

[00:28:10]So it wouldn't would have been a hard choice. Um so um if you just take a piece of that so if Tesla's only as good as well then they're going to get they're going to sell all they can make, >> right?

[00:28:24]I don't know where people are missing that.

[00:28:29]>> Yeah, it's it, you know, if if I'm being honest and like take my fanboy hat off, like I think people think it's farfetched and they don't understand it.

[00:28:40]Um, they haven't done the the napkin math and the and the work in the spreadsheets. They haven't looked at, you know, how much factory workers cost, right? And not just what you're paying them, but you know, all the benefits, all the safety carveouts, like all all that work that you've done, >> the hiring, the training, the lost, you know, smoking pot on the job, the stealing. I mean, you again >> problems.

[00:29:10]>> Again, Cern and I came up with different lists, but almost at exactly the same time, we came up with these super long lists of all the savings that would be there. Like even the annual review and how much you have to, you know, pay more next year. Whereas no annual review for Optimus, no pay more next year. Yeah.

[00:29:31]>> Yeah. Optimus isn't going to get mad if you don't raise its salary, >> right?

[00:29:37]>> Okay. Snowflake, it's up 24% today.

[00:29:42]I think you were telling me about a couple of stocks that you were involved in that might have been up even more than that. Um, anthropic is now worth more than open AI at least for a minute.

[00:29:54]Um, is that we started off talking about are we out over our skis with Tesla right now? So now my question is is the market getting a little bit out over its skis on some of these players even if the future is extremely bright even if there isn't any kind of limitation to how much of this merchandise we need. Is there at least a chance that we might be getting a little stretched on these valuations?

[00:30:21]>> Uh, so I suspect Snowflake had been beaten down a lot, you know, before this. So, a lot of the software names had gotten beaten up. Um, so I'm guessing that um that's the case for Snowflake and it's not at all-time highs.

[00:30:39]>> Yeah. Um so just a wild guess like you know you had the whole you know software the SAS apocalypse right >> right >> where all the software companies are getting hit pretty hard so I don't think uh software companies are undervalued um anthropic they're turning a profit this quarter um they claim you know it's this month that they were turning a profit um and that's a lot earlier ier than people thought.

[00:31:10]>> Yeah. I think >> Sure.

[00:31:12]>> You know, a year ago we were talking about, oh well, they'll be lucky if they do that by 2029.

[00:31:19]>> Yeah. Right.

[00:31:20]>> And it's and it's happening already. Um so I I think people don't understand like how good these economics are and you know what the potential profits are from um AI work. Now you know we're still digesting it all. So like Uber spent all this money on their AI compute and their um CFO or COO is admitting you we don't know that um you how measurably how measurably better we are as a result of Agentic AI doing all this programming for us. Uh they said that AI was doing 70% of their programming. Um, so like they're pulling back on their spend. Um, it came out that Mike, Go ahead.

[00:32:11]>> I think they said that uh they had spent their entire budget for tokens by April, >> right?

[00:32:21]uh Microsoft uh said they were pulling back from Anthropic, but like the the true headline there was that um they wanted Microsoft's employees to use Copilot, which is Microsoft's um their their product, their software product. So they there's when you're using agentic AI, you have a a harness >> for the the AI agent. And if if the if the action goes through the harness then you capture the data like what's the request you know what's the response you know what did the user do with that response did they like it or not you know that kind of thing so Microsoft wants it to go through their harness it it wasn't them like pulling back from AI but like some of these big companies they were incentivizing employees to use a certain amount of AI high every month.

[00:33:19]So what some employees got caught doing and like this was at Amazon and other places is um they were only using it so much for their programming work or other work. So they would they would write programs to just force the AI to do busy work. Um so it looked like they were using the AI more than they were otherwise >> by the other employees.

[00:33:45]So like that's a case of like bad incentives, >> right?

[00:33:49]>> Um you know Uber not measuring the benefit like that shows like they didn't get the systems in place to measure the benefits. you know, we look at, you know, specific projects we have at my office and, um, we look at the time savings. Um, so every time, every day that we have a bunch of trading that we do, it um, we have a program that doesn't use AI, but it AI enabled the automation where it saves us between two to four hours uh, each each busy trading day.

[00:34:24]>> Wow. Um we have a data entry program that saves us 160 days of work per year u between two people. So you know the you know an average work year is 250 days of work >> and we're saving two employees 80 days of work >> per year of you know terrible data entry work. Like you don't want to do data entry.

[00:34:49]>> So like let's measure it. Let's set the right incentives. Um, so I I I think it's a little bumpy um as far as you know how companies are figuring it out and and it is more expensive as you're figuring out how to use it.

[00:35:07]>> That makes sense.

[00:35:07]>> Yeah. You're having to figure it out and you're having to integrate it with your former processes.

[00:35:14]>> Um, so I I think we're working through that. I I don't think we're I don't think things are overvalued yet.

[00:35:22]It's an open question between like Open AI and Anthropic.

[00:35:27]Um it seems like Anthropic's iterating faster.

[00:35:31]Um you know, which is why they flipped them and you know, they flipped them on, you know, the economics.

[00:35:37]>> Yeah.

[00:35:37]>> Um you know, Open AI is still suffering pretty large losses. Um >> yeah. Yeah. Okay. So, speaking of all of that, uh, OpenAI and Anthropic will also have their own IPOs later this year. And I've been, see, I don't do like some other channels where I have four of you guys all on at once and you can discuss it back and forth. I'd rather do it in a serial way. So, I've been asking everybody.

[00:36:06]There's a lot of talk about liquidity, whether there's enough liquidity in the market to handle even the SpaceX IPO, much less follow up with an open AI and anthropic uh IPOs, which may come rather rapidly at the heels of the of the SpaceX one. What is your thinking about liquidity?

[00:36:28]I I think it's a valid concern.

[00:36:31]Um, but like you think about the SpaceX IPO.

[00:36:36]There's a lot of people that have SpaceX where you maybe four or five years ago it was five or 10% of their portfolio.

[00:36:45]You know, now it's over 50% of their portfolio and they're wondering, you know, what do I do with my stock? Um, and they want to remain as focused investors.

[00:36:59]So, but they may not want to have 50% in SpaceX anymore.

[00:37:05]Uh, maybe some of that money finds its way back into Tesla. Um, >> I think I've been just that for a week.

[00:37:11]Yeah, >> you had that idea. So, >> Oh, yeah. No, I had the same idea.

[00:37:16]>> Really good.

[00:37:17]>> So, you came up with that like right right in front of me last week, I think.

[00:37:21]>> Oh, I did. Okay. Was that's right. It was right in front of you.

[00:37:23]>> It was really good. Yeah. So like I you know so some people who are invested in SpaceX they they believe in Elon Musk's vision for the future and you know his ideas and his stewardship and you know how good he is with teams and recruiting and all these good things. Um so I think some of that money will find its way back in Tesla. So it's not just a one-way trip where people be selling Tesla to buy SpaceX. I think, you know, once some of the SpaceX lockups expire, you know, some of its money, some of the money will find its way back into Tesla.

[00:38:02]I've seen some uh I've seen two days in a row now of cyber of um of cryptos, the all the cryptocurrencies going down in an up market.

[00:38:16]Generally speaking, we see them going up in an up market. Sometimes even going up predicting an up market, but now two days in a row in a decent market, they've been down. I'm wondering if there's any rotation out of crypto, which is a risk-on category, into SpaceX, which is a risk-on category.

[00:38:40]>> Same kind same kind of investor.

[00:38:42]>> Yeah, I'd say potentially. Yeah.

[00:38:44]And you we're we're seeing some rotation back into software. Um >> so you that might be part of it as well.

[00:38:54]>> Yeah. Okay. All right. Um last >> and I I do think like some of that SpaceX money is going to find its way into other private companies. So, >> yeah.

[00:39:05]>> Um, you what I shared with you last week is, uh, I think there's going to be dozens of public companies that benefit and I think there's going to be hundreds of private companies that benefit from the SpaceX IPO where, you know, money will come into SpaceX, but people also be trimming back their SpaceX exposure, not necessarily selling it completely.

[00:39:31]Um, go ahead. Isn't this I know that Larry Goldberg has been talking about this for six months because he made some purchases last year of infrastructure stocks.

[00:39:42]Aren't we really at that place in the market where the suppliers are the best buys, the people, >> the hardware providers, >> the hardware, the software, the the uh electricians, the you know the infrastructure builders, whatever. the people that are supplying like you've been in these energy products for you know for a while uh that are supplying these other guys. Um isn't this isn't this like with this kind of growth isn't this a great time to be looking at these kind of the guys who are doing the supplying that nobody's paying attention to.

[00:40:24]>> Yeah. So I think people have been skeptical about uh the growth in you know certain hardware stocks like Micron. Um so Micron was up you know 20% on Monday. Um so like there's been some positive news with long-term agreements with with their profits for next quarter um things like that. Um so it it seems like the power is still generally in the hands of the um the suppliers of the picks and shovels. Uh so on the hardware side >> um software has been um weak.

[00:41:04]>> So you eventually there'll be some you know really big rotation from hardware to software to the what they call the application layer.

[00:41:15]>> Yeah. Um >> so like hardware gets their first bite.

[00:41:19]They get the first bite of a cycle >> and this is a super cycle >> and then eventually application layer you know takes a majority of the cake but you know right now the hardware is having the icing.

[00:41:35]>> Okay.

[00:41:37]All right.

[00:41:37]>> There's still a lot of cake to be eaten.

[00:41:39]>> Lot of cake to be eaten. Okay. So, and it's it still seems like the hardware players are undervalued. Um, a good chunk of them.

[00:41:48]>> Okay. All right. So, you referred though to this Uber story as being FUD. uh you think basically that the as I do and as Jeff Lutz does um that enterprises are probably at 1% of their potential uh to use this stuff.

[00:42:14]Um and so we haven't even we we're not even take a nibble of the actual useful useful phase of what's going on.

[00:42:23]I I am always referring on my channel and when I do my own shows, I'm always referring to the fact that the guys that I worked with, the 400 plus companies that I did consulting with, the companies I owned, they're those people are they're not they're not at the first they're not at the level you're at, you know, right?

[00:42:43]>> Not even close. In fact, they may not have any AI use at all in their office.

[00:42:48]Certainly the bike shops and the and the in the restaurants and all these people, they're not paying any attention to AI yet, but the larger manufacturers, the 500 employee, the thousand employee manufacturers, maybe even some of the 100,000 employee manufacturers, they haven't even taken a bite yet. They might be looking at it, thinking about it. So, it seems like we have a huge way to go. And I keep saying it's all people criticize me for this, but I say it's all about the salesforce. You don't have a big enough sales force yet for AI to even go out and talk to these people.

[00:43:21]And then when they do go out to talk talk with these people, they're so green at the, you know, they're so green at selling this product category, it's really hard to make the make the convicted sell. And then you got to send in the customer service person to help you get it hooked up. You don't have enough of those.

[00:43:37]>> Yeah.

[00:43:39]Yeah. I I think we're still very early.

[00:43:42]So whenever we talk to clients or or prospects, we're asking people about uh AI usage in their their jobs. And there are many people who are still banned uh from using AI. Uh there are many where there's no like um concerted effort to you know give them give people like uniform tools to to use it in their roles. U so you know they're just like given C-pilot from Microsoft and they might use it with email and um you you can there are some some useful ways to use co-pilots but like a lot of people they're not they're not being told like how to how to use it to its fullest extent. Um so I I agree we're we're still very early.

[00:44:35]I'm very much an early adopter. Um, so I understand this about myself.

[00:44:41]>> Well, see, and and I and I know this might be really in the weeds. I was a super early adopter when I was running my manufacturing uh business, but I was really late on ERP because ERP is complicated. I I still claim that it was more complicated than my first year of law school, which I always thought was the hardest thing I ever did. So putting in uh enterprise enterprise software that was going to run every aspect of my of my company down to this down to the ounces of raw material coming in the back door. Um it was incredibly difficult. And so I could see myself today if I was still running a manufacturing plant going this looks like it's going to be harder than ERP and going uh you know let let me let me wait and see how my my friends are doing.

[00:45:31]So, I'm imagining with ERP like there's rules and you got to wire things together. Um, so like if this happens, then it drops down to this and you need a certain trigger >> um for this to activate. And then once this activates, >> you're counting the ounces of raw material coming in. In my case, that's plastic bottles. So, you got the ounces of plastic coming in, the ounces of color coming in to color the bottles.

[00:46:00]You're talking about the ounces of scrap that you reuse versus the ounces of scrap that you don't reuse and has to be thrown away. You've got then you're going to put printing on the bottles.

[00:46:09]So, you're counting the ounces of the of the color the, you know, the ink that you're using for the printing. I mean, >> yeah. And then you get to the end of the month or the end of the, you know, first couple of months you're using it, you're going, "How come my numbers are completely cattywus?" And then you start over, >> you know? So, no, it was it was really really Yes. So rules, rules, rules. How much are you using anyway? Yeah. So this seems as an out complete outsider, it seems easier, but I know that if there's not a customer service engineer or a customer service guy that's helping the company to set it up, nobody's going to set it up.

[00:46:50]>> Yeah, >> that's my take anyway. Yeah, we I'd like to sell the software and the the process where you know we're saving um you know all this time on data entry.

[00:47:03]>> Yeah. Yeah.

[00:47:04]>> I'd love to sell that but you know we I would need to carve out time for sales and then I would need that inside saleserson that helps um helps people implement.

[00:47:16]>> Right. Right. Um so like there's a you know whole organization around that >> and then you need to get feedback from the customers and then you got to tweak it and help them tweak it and figure it out because it's you know it's not going to work like once they get it working like eventually it's going to break and then they need to fix that.

[00:47:38]>> So you know there's a lot to it and a lot >> all that needs to spin up.

[00:47:42]>> That's right. Well, you know, all of this is probably impacting the markets.

[00:47:49]>> So, let's get right to the numbers.

[00:47:51]>> Okay.

[00:47:55]Okay. We will now take a look at those numbers. We've got Tesla up.40 for the day to 44210.

[00:48:03]And in the after hours, it is being right now it's tending to be just a little bit under.19 44126. It's been a little bit under for the last uh several hours. So, very very flat right now. That's kind of the story uh that we're seeing right now. Let me let you know about the VIX though. The VIX ended up at 1574. That was pretty much the low of the day. Uh down 3.38%.

[00:48:28]So, a big indication that people are writing trending to say tending to say it's time. Let's let's go again. uh risk on is where we are. Okay, let's go ahead and take a look at the bonds which are certainly in that direction also. Now, we're only down 210 of an additional uh basis point uh currently, but we made $445 earlier today. So, that is good. Now, we've got the oil prices going down very nicely again. We are at $88.72.

[00:49:06]So, I think it was um who was it earlier in the week said, "Oh, yeah. It was definitely Nick." Nick Gibbs said, "Randy, don't be surprised if you don't get into your 70s right away. Uh but you could easily get into the, you know, 80 range fairly quickly. He certainly looking good. 8865. Brent down to 9331.

[00:49:30]Where was it a week ago or so? Like 110 or something." Anyway, all right.

[00:49:35]Natural gas up 64 again at $3.31. I So I did, as promised from this morning's show, I did ask Rock, what the heck is going on with natural gas? Little bit colder weather than expected this time of year. A lot more exports right now than uh the exports are outstrip. The US exports are outstripping the the new production here in the United States. Um Grock says, "Look, it's it's up, but it's not crazy yet. Nothing to get excited about." said there definitely could have been today. Might have been a short squeeze. So that might be why we had the big gain earlier today. Um all right, let's look at the after oil and natural gas. We get to gold. Gold is down $5.30 for $4,527.

[00:50:24]Silver uh up slightly $75.96.

[00:50:28]And copper down.9.

[00:50:31]009 at 642. So, that's about where it's been now for a few days. The dollar is continuing to fall. Um, as the they're they're claiming it's because the Iran agreement is close. Uh, Bitcoin, as we just talked about, Bitcoin is down, 1278.

[00:50:50]I'm going to look at the chart real quick. Let's take a look at that chart.

[00:50:54]Um, this is the let me look at the five-day chart.

[00:50:59]So yeah, we're looking at uh we were at 775, we're now at 736. So that's a pretty substantial uh decrease 1.72%.

[00:51:11]Um and uh so where are we compared to all-time high? I don't think it shows it in these charts, unfortunately. You know, I think thisund uh 120,000 something like that. Anyway, I'm I'm beginning to wonder whether this makes a comeback anytime soon. Maybe after all three IPOs, if that's all there is, maybe there'll be new IPOs announced, but uh I'm I'm wondering if Bitcoin is priced right right now.

[00:51:43]Apparently, the market thinks it's priced right right now. All right, let's look at uh Ethereum also down 1.97% at 2013.

[00:51:53]We've got the Dow up 0.03. 03 looking into Nora. We've got the S&P up.13 and the Nasdaq up.15.

[00:52:03]Uh so that's a pretty good thing. Uh they closed very high. Let's see. S&P pretty sure that's all time. Uh S&P alltime high.

[00:52:17]Uh NASDAQ uh alltime high. S the Dow. I don't think so. The the Dow is not there. No, Dow's got a long way to go. That's what I thought. Okay, S&P and NASDAQ, another all-time high today, even before the after hours. All right, that's all I got for you right now. Oh, no. What? Let's see. Coming up later. So, no show tonight under my new system. So, you want to have a show tonight.

[00:52:44]Uh, you did have two shows earlier today. One where I was giving you the midday report. That that that midday report was pretty uh interesting. You might want to go back and check it out.

[00:52:53]I'll put the card up. But the one you really need to go back and see is Brian Wong's report. Now, that was at 6:00 a.m. this morning, California time.

[00:53:02]That's when that show, but we're switching things up. The show that used to be late, like 7:30 at night, California time, is now early, like 6:30 in the morning, uh, California time. So, if you didn't see the Brian Wong show because you're just not used to the way that we're doing things now, and you got a few minutes, I would highly recommend.

[00:53:20]I'll put the card up. You should go back and check that out. And then tomorrow morning at 6:30 California time will be Sir and Basher. Not tonight at 8 or 7:30, etc. Tomorrow morning, Cern Basher. Phenomenal show. Make sure that if you haven't subscribed yet, you subscribe, hit notify so that you don't miss tomorrow morning's show. All right, that's all I got. I'm done. It's been great talking to