Major Update : Has GOLD (& SILVER) Bottomed? Realty Stocks Rally | Alok Jain

[00:00:01]Hi folks. So, suddenly there is a move in precious metals. About 600 billion dollars have been added to precious metals from nearly $4,000. It has now gone to 4070.

[00:00:13]The idea is not to try to predict where the bottom is because right now both silver and gold are down and out.

[00:00:21]But they will not give you any for forward warning before they start to move up aggressively. That is the situation that has happened so many times in the past that people keep waiting for the bottom to form and then waiting for their allocation.

[00:00:36]But the idea is that you should not try to trade this. The whole thesis of precious metals, especially gold, is that you need to have an allocation. If you have had an allocation and it went up, you know, several times like it did in the last few years and went beyond your allocation, and it is still above your initial target allocation, you can just do nothing.

[00:00:56]But if it has come off, let's say you start trading in January 2026 and we're down 20% and it's below your allocation, then certainly you must add to your allocation. So, see gold as an allocation play and not as a price trade that you were trying to pick the bottom, etc. So, these are, you know, certain whenever it will move off very quickly in one day.

[00:01:22]These are very high probability days where, you know, it may take off from here.

[00:01:27]That's That's all that I can say about this. So, if you're not allocated, if you're under allocated, certainly take a look.

[00:01:34]21st of July, let's get into the daily buy. Disclaimer, as always, please read fully and then move forward in the video. So, again, another day of complete flatness. Nifty minus 0.21%.

[00:01:47]Um the war has not, uh you know, given any kind of relief. Uh in fact, Iran has bombed certain American targets. certain number of American soldiers are dead and they are threatening to target top 15 odd companies, American companies assets in the Middle East. Whether it is in Bahrain or whether it may be in UAE etc. So it can get ugly.

[00:02:14]Maybe it is posturing but you know some Amazon centers have been bombed in the past as well.

[00:02:22]Market indices were reasonably I would say broad-based okay in the sense that the broader indices did not go down. In fact, they were up by 0.3% to 0.4% and Nifty and Bank Nifty however were down largely maybe because of FI selling that continues in that section and also because of intense selling in HDFC Bank.

[00:02:47]After 5.2% yesterday, we have another 2% gone on HDFC Bank. That's That's something like 80,000 crores possibly [snorts] wiped out out of HDFC Bank.

[00:02:59]Reliance also is out and down.

[00:03:02]State Bank also followed today's TCS and Infosys also down but other finance companies consumer oriented stocks, autos, cement, these kind of stocks did all right for the day. In the Nifty next 50 heat map also some profit taking on PSU banks which had jumped up in the last two sessions. Some moves coming back to commodities and defense stocks. TVS motor exceptionally doing well at 5.6%.

[00:03:31]Karur Vysya Bank left up 13%.

[00:03:34]Mahindra Financial Services 8%, Gujarat Fluorochemicals, Gabriel, Data Patterns, some of these stocks were up 6 to 7%.

[00:03:41]Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC dropped 6.75% on results. Aegis Logistics dropped 5%. Transformer Rectifier post results down 5%. Gallantt Ispat that has been going down since a while minus 5% again and premier energies also down. These were the top losers.

[00:03:59]Within the sectoral trend Nifty real estate came back up after a long while.

[00:04:03]So if we see the last and today what was up 1% in the last 1 week also 1% only.

[00:04:10]In the last 1 month you can see 14.22% real estate has really done well in the last 1 month. Autos also doing all right at 0.93% autos over the last 1 month are up 2.62% not much.

[00:04:23]Um on the downside you had PSU banks which had gone up very nicely yesterday giving up most of that gain at minus 0.88% IT continues to be down. So in the last 1 month IT actually has recovered 5% but if you see over the year IT is down 21.3% so uh the trend is still very very uh I would say tepid there. Uh capital markets down half a percent. Let's see how capital markets have done over the year. So capital markets also have done plus 15% for the year uh doing reasonably well on back of BSC, MCX and other stocks.

[00:04:58]Prestige, Godrej, Anant Raj, Macrotech developers which is Lodha, Phoenix Mills all doing well. Real estate you can see is trending very nicely higher tops, higher bottoms. It is in a uptrend for sure uh despite whatever uh market narrative is that you know real estate is not selling and so on so forth but you know uh recent examples of launches in even very highly priced launches have been taken up very quickly in the markets.

[00:05:23]Uh US markets previous session uh Dow Jones down 0.6% Nasdaq absolutely flat S&P also down 0.19% Russell down 0.67% the top gainers in Nasdaq is Lumentum uh Teradyne, Exxon Enterprise, Marvell and Strategy all gaining 3 to 4%.

[00:05:42]Honeywell Warner Brothers, Tesla, Palo Alto Networks and Rocket Labs. These were the top losers. So, no major losers yesterday in the Nasdaq 100. In fact, the semiconductor and AI space saw some minor gains. Apple, after hitting the highest market cap position once again, saw some profit booking. But, SpaceX, I think for the 10th day running, SpaceX is down and Tesla is also down along with it. A lot of folks are now stuck in SpaceX, which has lost somewhere close to 1.5 trillion dollars of market cap from the top.

[00:06:17]In the tweet of the day segment, we have a chart from Barchart. So, semiconductor stocks now account for more than 20% of global trading volume.

[00:06:28]I mean, it's just amazing in terms of where, you know, the trade has shifted in terms of, you know, every speculator going for the semiconductor stocks and rightfully, when so much heat gets generated in one sector, there will be some kind of shake-offs that will happen and we are probably amidst one of the those kind of shake-offs. So, be very careful with semiconductor stocks.

[00:06:53]We have also seen in our US portfolio, some of those have been taken out.

[00:06:59]The volatility on some several of these semiconductor stocks is very, very high right now.

[00:07:06]What is the right way to approach a home loan?

[00:07:09]That's a topic which interests a lot of folks. Do watch this in the next video that we will share with you later today. Do like and share these videos if you like our content and do subscribe to our channel if you're a regular viewer. I'll see you again very, very soon. Thanks. Bye.