NVIDIA Price Run Ahead? Bullish Momentum, AI Trends & My Own Analysis - NVDA Update

追加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]a global productivity story, right?

[00:00:02]There AI is essentially creating productive units uh that actually either help workers uh produce more or even replace workers in some countries.

[00:00:13]It's primarily taking place in just the US and China. And so, I'm not surprised in a way that we could see the US companies actually disproportionately benefiting this because it's not really taking place in Europe. So, I I'd sort of expect that concentration. But, um you know, as far as like the effects later this year from higher oil, I you know, I think that's a negative consequence and I think it raises questions about what the what the Fed could do. In fact, of course, we're getting a new Fed chair. That's why I think later this year the markets could actually face a test around that. But, for now, I think it's just an earnings tailwind story.

[00:00:54]And Ashley, you like us software, Tom.

[00:00:57]On Friday, you you named it a top sector pick. Was there anything from earning season, maybe from Microsoft's report at last I mean, there are a number of software companies that have reported.

[00:01:06]Anything that you heard specifically that made you feel better about the sector?

[00:01:11]Well, I think one of the things that's apparent to us around software is I know that investors are correctly thinking that there is if they should question, you know, the durability of these software models over time.

[00:01:23]But, many of these companies are are very well managed and companies will adapt. So, it's become a a sort of a de-rating story where investors are questioning future earnings. But, now, I think the risk reward is is pretty favorable. So, I think for for the right companies and for the best businesses, this is a great risk reward.

[00:01:45]Hey Tom, just uh watching the headlines that we just got, you know, stock futures jumping on this news that we got again from an Iranian news agency that two missiles struck a ship, a US ship in the Gulf. What What do you do with >> 29.

[00:02:02]Have cash, have stock. You You might issue more shares. That's what you're talking about. So, it could be diluted to current GameStop shareholders. I want to move on though in terms of your vision for this combined company because saying that it could that a combined company could rival the likes of Amazon sets the bar pretty high. How do you foresee that happening given some key differences between your model and Amazon's model? Notably, Amazon has a huge logistics hub able to you know, offer all this other sort of delivery service and GameStop and eBay would would be confined to the platform.

[00:02:34]There's an opportunity to build a much larger business to make the business much more efficient and to accelerate revenue growth and eBay's a very strong business.

[00:02:47]Uh you look at GameStop as an example.

[00:02:52]GameStop very difficult business. Should have been bankrupt multiple times over and it's doing okay. It's making a few bucks.

[00:03:01]eBay is in a very very strong position.

[00:03:05]Uh but it could be in a much stronger position.

[00:03:08]Uh and it could be a much larger business than what it currently is.

[00:03:13]Ryan, um you mentioned that, you know, GameStop's in a tough business. I mean, revenues are down like 40% in the last 4 years or something like that. eBay's been a public company for a couple of decades. Where's the evidence that you kind of know how to grow a mature consumer business?

[00:03:30]I don't know. I mean, didn't you guys call for GameStop's demise multiple times? Like it should have been bankrupt by now.

[00:03:37]>> how to grow it. Is that what you're saying? Well, look at our financial performance. Is it better than you guys anticipated? Cuz you guys said it was going to be doing really really poorly and it's actually doing okay.

[00:03:51]Ryan, let let me come at this a a slightly different way. Um assuming that you were able to get um this half half cash, half stock arrangement effectively by diluting your shares. I imagine that's how you'd have to do it, but I I still don't understand fully how that would work.

[00:04:10]Um and you were able to capture more cash, I guess, uh from from others.

[00:04:16]Um in terms of paying it down, can you walk us through the math of that? Because if you look at both of these companies in terms of just how much cash they produce, it it would be a tight bill.

[00:04:31]Did you look at uh the the materials that we posted online? I have looked at the materials that you've posted online, but we also have an audience that I'm I'm hoping is going to want to understand this and hear from you so that you can walk through walk through this because people do look at these numbers and they say that that they're trying to wrap their head around it. I don't think that everybody automatically says, "Oh my goodness, this absolutely makes 100% sense and he can write the check tomorrow." And if you wanted to close the deal tomorrow, in fact, I I am sure that if you were the CEO of eBay and the board of of eBay today, you would say, "I don't know whether they have the money to be able to do this." And they're watching us now, and other investors of eBay are watching us now, and they're not going to call eBay's board and say, "You need to talk to these people." Unless they understand how this all is supposed to work.

[00:05:18]Well, we have a 5% stake in eBay. It makes us one of the largest shareholders, so they have a fiduciary duty to their shareholders to evaluate this proposal.

[00:05:31]Uh and in terms of the actual earnings power of the business, this is a business that is under earning and can make a lot more money. And GameStop is a good blueprint for that. Obviously, you know, you guys thought the business wouldn't be where it currently is, and eBay could be making a lot more money.

[00:05:52]So, there's going to be some leverage on the balance sheet in order to make an acquisition possible, but Hey everyone, welcome to my channel. I hope you all are doing well today. So, without wasting time, let's start our video. The AI race is entering a completely different phase, and Nvidia is still sitting at the center of it. For the past 2 years, investors believed the AI boom was mostly about GPUs. If you own Nvidia, you own the AI trade, and honestly, that strategy worked incredibly well because Nvidia became the backbone of modern artificial intelligence infrastructure.

[00:06:29]But now, something is much bigger is happening. The AI economy is expanding beyond just the GPUs. The market is beginning to realize that artificial intelligence required an entire ecosystems of hardware, software, memory, networking, power, and compute infrastructure.

[00:06:47]That shift is changing the entire semiconductor industry. Recently, investors started aggressively buying companies like Intel, AMD, Micron, Arms, and other semiconductor names connected to CPUs, memories, and data center infrastructure. Some people immediately assumed that this means Nvidia has losing the leadership, but that interpretation completely misses what's actually happening.

[00:07:10]Nvidia's not being replaced. The AI's ecosystem is simply becoming larger.

[00:07:15]This is a transition from the first phase of AI into the next major phase that is agentic AI.

[00:07:21]At the first, AI system mostly powered prompt like chatbots. You type the question, and the model generated a response. That process relied heavily on GPUs because GPUs are extremely good at parallel processing and large-scale inferences calculations.

[00:07:36]Now, AI systems are evolving into intelligent agents. Instead of only answering the question, these agents can actually perform the actions. They can organize schedules, write and write and send emails, update spreadsheet, and manage the workflow. Interact with software tools and automate many repetitive tasks that human previously handled manually. And this changes the hardware requirement drastically.

[00:08:01]When an AI model reasons about a task, that computations still happen primarily on GPUs. But once the AI decided what action to take, the actual execution of the task often involves CPUs. That means the future of AI is not just about more GPUs. It's also about CPUs. This is why suddenly investors starting paying attention to Intel and AMD again. The rise of is genetic AI create enormous demand for CPUs infrastructure because every AI agent effectively need its own computing environment to perform the task across the software system.

[00:08:36]This is also why many analysts now describe the relationship between GPUs and CPUs like this. GPUs are the brain and CPUs are the workers. The GPU handle inferences and reasoning, the CPU execute the infrastructure and coordinate workflows.

[00:08:50]As is genetic AI adoption accelerate, the world will need drastically more of the both.

[00:08:55]That's why the AI trade has expanded far beyond the NVIDIA alone.

[00:09:00]However, NVIDIA still remain the dominant force inside the ecosystem because almost all advanced AI systems continue relying on NVIDIA GPUs for inferences and training.