AFDB MEETINGS: AFRICA'S ECONOMY TO SLOW TO 4.2% IN 2026

Ajouté : 2026-05-28

[00:00:03]I'm just going to move on and go back to Congo-Brazzaville where Africa's economic growth, and as I mentioned earlier, is projected to grow 4.2% this year, slightly below 4.4% recorded last year. And that's according to the latest economic report released today at the opening of the annual meetings of the African Development [snorts] Bank Group in Congo-Brazzaville. The new report says the moderation in growth is due to heightened geopolitical tensions and global supply shocks.

[00:00:31]Growth is expected to rebound to 4.4% in 2027, that report [clears throat] says. Now, the AfDB Group's annual meetings is holding for 4 days in Central Africa, the first since its new president, Sidi Ould Tah, took office last September.

[00:00:50]Africa is today defined by three major paradoxes. The first is its wealth without a matching economic power. Africa represents about 18% of the global population and is [snorts] home to more than 30% of the global mineral resources and more than 60% of untapped arable land of the globe. Yet, Africa accounts for only 3% of global trade and between 3 to 4% of the global GDP.

[00:01:25]The second paradox is the paradox of financing.

[00:01:29]The continent is grappling with annual financing needs estimated at about $400 billion to for its structural transformation. Yet, Africa has more than $4 trillion of domestic savings and assets in banks, pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign funds, and other financial institutions.

[00:01:56]And the third paradox is the paradox of opportunities.

[00:02:00]Africa needs every year between 130 to 170 billion dollars to respond to its infrastructure needs with a financing gap estimated at between 68 to 108 billion dollars yearly. The continent affords one of the best investment opportunities in the world in energy, logistics, digital infrastructure, food systems, and critical minerals. Yet, Africa receives barely 1% of foreign direct investment flows and remains one of the least financed regions of the global economy.

[00:02:40]So, the issue is no longer to know whether Africa has potential. We are done and over with that. The issue really is whether we are able to transform Africa's assets into productive investments, employment for our youth, creating value, and wielding economic influence globally. We must admit that the world has changed profoundly over the last few years.

[00:03:08]The COVID-19 disrupted, reshaped trade routes, and energy markets. And extraneous inflation has hit our households and public finances on our continent. Supply chains have been weakened while official development assistance has dwindled significantly while interest rates have increased significantly as they have increased the cost of capital for African economies.

[00:03:38]The geographical fragmentation is now at the forefront of global relations.

[00:03:47]And in the middle of this upheavals, there's something that is clear. Africa is no longer at the periphery of global African global systems.

[00:04:00]From the Swiss Canal to the Cape of Good Hope, from the Straits of Bab el-Mandeb to the corridors of critical minerals, they continue to feed the energy transition.

[00:04:14]The continent is critical especially with respect to how global logistical chains are shaped.

[00:04:23]Energy security, critical minerals, and Africa and the future of the world.

[00:04:31]Yet, the change is not really from outside. It is within. Despite all of these shocks, Africa has demonstrated critical and unmatched resilience over decades.

[00:04:46]The world considered Asia as the number one engine of growth, but recent IMF projections have put Africa's growth at a comparable growth rate, and in some cases higher.

[00:05:04]Across the continent, we are witnessing major transformations.

[00:05:09]Digital technologies are reducing the gaps in terms of access and inclusion.

[00:05:15]The Africa Free Trade Continental Area has contributed to establishing greater and more connected markets, and a new generation of entrepreneurs are building businesses with continental ambitions and an increasingly greater global ambition. Today, across Africa, youth African youth entrepreneurs are using African artificial intelligence, digital tools to respond to concrete challenges from agriculture to health and education. However, we know that several African innovations remain local or marginal, while others are placed on the global stage because resilience is not enough to finance long-term transformation.

[00:06:04]Economic governance improves the social contact with citizens. It helps to create resources for bankable producing bankable projects. Basically, it's a circular flow of positives if we focus on economic governance. In chapter three, we then look at what do we need to do with existing African infrast- financing architecture in order to be able to mobilize that domestic revenue.

[00:06:31]And here we're seeing that every indicator we looked at, whether it is financial development index or gross savings, no bank deposits, and domestic private sector investments, Africa is performing way below its peers, and also way below its its potential.