Is The Bitcoin Summer Rally Over?

[00:00:00]In recent weeks, we've been talking about how any sort of relief for Bitcoin's price action would see price revisit the 50-month EMA to turn it into a new resistance. We spoke about this in late June, and we've seen since price develop a summer relief rally into that 50-month EMA, and so we're seeing rejection from here. But, what does that now mean? Are we going to be pulling back right now? Is the summer relief rally over? Subscribe to the channel for more videos like this in the future.

[00:00:27]Like this video if you enjoy content like this going forward. And let's dive right into it. Back in June, we were talking about how the June floor would be effectively giving rise to a green July just to develop a sideways range here, very 2022-esque in that regard. And we've seen price rally and enjoy a bit of upside, indeed a green July, which is what we typically tend to see following 2022 tendencies quite closely. And going forward with that monthly candle close to open up a green July, we've been talking about how generally this cycle has been a more compressed version of the prior cycle in in 2022. And even if we think about this price action here, this deviation below the 50-month EMA, we're seeing the same thing take place here, but in a more of a compressed format. And the 50 EMA is a confluent support, or at least a new resistance right now with the old support from 2026, the February and March lows. We're turning an old floor from earlier this year into a new resistance right now.

[00:01:39]And so, what could we then anticipate going forward? This 50 EMA is probably going to continue to act as a ceiling.

[00:01:47]It's probably going to delineate the ceiling going into August. And we've been following 2022 so picture-perfectly pretty much that we don't really have any reason to think that we're not going to be seeing 2022 repeat going forward.

[00:02:06]So, this July probably going to still end as a green July, but for the most part, most likely we've seen the majority of this move already take place. So, if we're talking about a green July and being that summer relief month and comparing that to 2022, the whole goal is to lose price action support at the 50-month EMA and then turn that EMA into new resistance. And if green July is the vehicle for effectively confirming a breakdown from the 50-month EMA by turning into a new resistance, then that job has pretty much been done. That technical milestone has been achieved. And so, whatever upside we see from here still probably going to be a little bit limited because the majority of the upside has already taken place. So, price could still meander around this region, maybe try an upside wick beyond the 50-month EMA, but for the most part, the summer relief rally, which served a unique purpose, has already served that purpose. And I don't think we're going to rally too much more. And generally speaking, what does this July move mean in the context of this range? This is probably going to be a redistribution range like we saw in 2022. So, moving sideways for the whole summer before breaking down and searching for that final bear market bottoming out region. So, if we're rejecting from the 50-month EMA right now, August is probably going to hang about here. If we look at 2022, we saw August try and go into higher highs. So, actually eclipse these highs.

[00:03:37]And these are quintessential FOMO wicks, people getting trapped in their buy-side positions, getting too bullish and overly eager about a full-blown reversal into a new bull market, for example, before seeing price get hammered down.

[00:03:50]And that's probably going to be the playbook going into the latter stages of July and also in August. If August produces a higher high via an upside wick of its own, then we really would be repeating the 2022 playbook quite closely. Generally, I don't think we're going to be eclipsing the 50-month EMA as, you know, trying to reclaim it as a support. I think it's going to continue to act as a resistance. We're going to continue to confirm this breakdown from the 26 floor and turn it into a new 26 ceiling and effectively continue the sequence of lower and lower and lower highs that we've been seeing here. And these lower highs are going to simply persist over time. But what are these lower highs really all about? If we look at prior cycles, these lower highs develop clusters of price action, and these clusters of price action re- represent certain phases in the cycle, and we always see clusters of price action develop at some point in the cycle. For example, 2026 here, we replicated 2020 uh 2014 historical price tendencies. And so, for as much as this cycle has been quite 2022-esque in the sense that it's quite a close fractal, we still see a bit of borrowing in this cycle and borrowing from prior cycles like 2014. So, clusters of price action are one of the best ways to just waste time in a bear market. If we think about a bear market lasting a year or so, then most of that bear market year will be spent in just moving sideways or wasting time on very limited relief rallies. And we've seen a lot of that time wasting take place earlier this year. And in 2022, we saw that take place not too far away from the actual bear market bottom.

[00:05:45]And in 2014, we saw uh time wasting just beneath the macro base of the triangle.

[00:05:49]So very very 2026 esque in that regard.

[00:05:53]But of course we see clusters at the absolute bear market bottoming out region as well. 2015 2014 we saw a micro accumulation range develop 2018 and of course 2022. So we definitely have one more cluster of price action to enjoy at the absolute bear market bottoming out region.

[00:06:14]But do we maybe have one more cluster to develop in and around current levels?

[00:06:22]Usually we've seen two major clusters develop beneath the macro triangle base.

[00:06:28]In 2018 we only had one cluster although price certainly wasted a lot of time for most of the bear market year in 2018 inside this macro triangle structure overall. But I just wonder how many more clusters of price action will we see?

[00:06:47]Usually we see two.

[00:06:49]We see one, we see two and we always see a cluster at the bear market bottom. So if that history is to repeat then we've seen one major cluster already develop and the next one should be at the absolute bear market bottom. So then what's this phase all about then? It's probably going to be a transitional period, a transitional phase in the market that gets us from this cluster to the bear market bottoming out cluster.

[00:07:15]So this is a transitional phase and and price is on the cusp of that phase continuing.

[00:07:21]And what's interesting about that phase is that maybe it's going to be somewhat reminiscent of what we saw in 2022 where price is breaking down from the range and trying to confirm that range breakdown but ultimately crashes lower and I think by trying to turn February 26 lows into a new resistance we're already seeing that that inkling, the very first innings of that breakdown take place. So, this is the transitional period, and that transitional period is going to get us into that final bear market bottoming out cluster. So, two clusters in 2022, one in 2018, two in 2014-2015, but each of those have seen clusters develop at the absolute bear market bottoms, and we'll probably see the same thing take place here. One major cluster, one at the absolute bear market bottom, and this is just going to be the transitional period that takes us from this cluster into the final major bottoming out region, which brings us to this chart here. Effectively, we're in this bearish portion of the cycle for the time being, which exists to downside accelerate on breakdown from the macro triangle, and then search for that final bottom. And so, we're still in this phase here, but we're slowly running out of time when it comes to bear cycles. Bear cycles usually last a minimum of 365 days. So, if we're going to be talking about a minimum of a year here, then then we don't really have that much time left at all, less than 90 days. And, you know, looking to history, 365 days can cut it. We we've seen that be the case in 2018 and 2022.

[00:09:04]Obviously, 2015 was a little bit longer.

[00:09:07]We saw a longer bear market bottoming out process than 365 days. We we saw 390 or so. Generally speaking, the the four-year cycle allows for even price to go into a really extended bear market bottoming out period, but maybe that's a topic for another day.

[00:09:26]In any case, 365 days is the minimum here for price to bottom out, and we still have a bit of time, and also we have additional downside to potentially explore as well.

[00:09:40]So, we'll be monitoring these charts as we always do here on a weekly basis here on the YouTube channel. But, in the meantime, perhaps you'd be interested in joining my brand new community, the Crypto Investing School here, where we'll be focused and dedicated on helping you become a disciplined crypto investor in 90 days. And some of the ways we'll be able to do that is through direct coaching and community-requested videos, as well as building out a unique course curriculum to help you have a roadmap to effectively gaining your first profitable investment or trade.

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[00:13:31]>> Mhm.