The analysis effectively distinguishes the current semiconductor rally as a structural infrastructure buildout rather than a speculative bubble. It provides a grounded perspective on how AI demand is fundamentally reshaping long-term market fundamentals.
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CLOSE TO AN IRAN DEAL, SEMIS KEEP MOVING, IS SOFTWARE BACK | MARKET OPENAdded:
Good morning everybody. Welcome back to another episode of the market open. We are live.
Thank you everybody for being here. It is Thursday, May 7th.
Mit's the kind of guy who would be late to his own funeral. You know, that's a good one. That's That's actually more original than uh than I've seen for a while. I don't know what to tell you guys. Something before you go live happens every time and it results in being a little late. It's just like I like you would think after three years I'd be better at mitigating that from happening, but it happens every time.
Anyway, we're live. We're here. We have a lot to talk about, a lot to get into.
Uh, bunch of earnings from last night that were relatively important for the AI space. Bunch of earnings from this morning that were super important. Um, New York Knicks up 20. Are we Are we winning this chip? We haven't won a chip since 1972. Are the New York Knicks winning this chip? Knicks in four.
Get to the fin. I mean, I don't know, man. I'm feeling like feeling like maybe there's a chance. Maybe there is a chance. S&P is up in the pre-market.
It's actually a relatively red pre-market across all the different stocks that have been uh pumping like crazy in terms of semiconductor names.
Now, if you want to call a two to 3% drop in the pre-market on the ARMS and the Microns and the Sandis a dip, I wouldn't say it's necessarily a dip. But nonetheless, some of these names are red and they're taking a little bit of a breather. Nvidia actually broke out yesterday at 207, which was nice to see.
Nvidia right there 20783. AMD down about 1.7%. Again, really not that big of a deal uh that AMD's taking a breather right here. IGV getting lifted by Data Dog in the pre-market as that one had a relatively strong earnings. That stock up 30%.
So I guess the market really did not price in what they thought they would get from a data dog. App also had a really good earnings. That stock is down 1%. So markets being very selective in terms of how they think of the software names that are putting up different types of growth curves. Obviously we saw Reddit which is classified as software.
Good earnings 175 or 177 all the way back down to 167. So, we'll talk about some of the different earnings and how the market's interpreting it. ESTs up 4.84% after announcement about Bluebird last night. Rocket Lab coming back to life a little bit. You got Snowflake as well. That's up about 10%. Snowflake didn't have earnings though, right? So, yeah, that's definitely a um that's a uh byproduct of data dog likely having a pretty good earnings. So, we'll get into those numbers in a second and we'll take a look at that. But you're having a relatively normal pre-market across a variety of sectors outside of semi some of the semiconductor names that are taking a very small hit. ARM taking the biggest hit down about 7.7. They did not have the best call. Their numbers were mediocre at best to be honest. I mean, the numbers were not really substantial.
On the call, the CEO Renee, he really needed to prove the CPU thing is real.
And he kind of did, but he also kind of didn't. He definitely didn't hype it up the way Intel and AMD did. And as a result, I think that's why that stock's down 7%. Now, is ARM expensive? Yeah, you could argue that ARM's expensive and it probably was priced for perfection, but it did pump to 268 at one point before the call and the call happened and it came back down. So, we'll talk about that, see what's going on right there, and then we'll keep going to try to see all these different software names that are potentially catching a little bit of a bid. Google surpassed 4 Hundo in the pre-markets. This one was inevitable, right? We have that anthropic deal which was a very very big contract for Google in terms of increasing their backlog and the streets seem to like that. So you got Google getting some love. Uh and then your other Mac 7s like a Tesla getting a little bit of a breakout four or five.
We had some big news around SpaceX and Anthropic yesterday. Didn't get too much time to talk about it because we had earnings last night. So we'll dive deeper into that today. But uh it is pretty incredible how Elon is kind of playing 4D chess to navigate the AI ecosystem and quite frankly to give a better reason to buy SpaceX on the IPO.
So, we'll talk about that and then we'll uh then we will keep going from there.
Oracle, yeah, almost. Did it hit 200? It was at 199 1907. Okay, so it touched 200 for a little bit. Let's see if we break through today. This one was a good one.
You know, around that 130 150 range.
Really gave a decent opportunity like a lot of these different semiconductors names did. This one got worse because of the software sell off on April 13th.
Oracle has a legacy software business called Netswuite. So, the street thought it was a dead software suck.
You're seeing a pretty decent rebound just a couple weeks later. All right, let's get into it. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. Thank you everybody for being here. Omar, Seman, Daniel, what's up? What's up? Ben Lee, good morning. Thank you all for being here. We'll talk about Fastly as well.
We talked about it with Jason yesterday.
Ultimately, guidance just wasn't good enough and that's why that one ended up taking a hit going the opposite of uh Digital Ocean even though it's kind of in the same space. Eva, cycle time. What's up? Kane, Thomas, Alex, good morning. Usha Channing, Mark, Chef Mike, Chef Mike, what's for breakfast, man? That's the question. I don't eat breakfast, but what is for breakfast? Ray, Charles, Chels, Chicago meetup. Excited. Chicago meetup. I'm excited as well. I'm actually flying out to the Windy City tonight. So, if you finally want to get your uh last minute tickets, you can click right there. And we have I think about like 15 more spots open and then it'll be uh officially closed here. But yeah, if anyone wants to come, it'll be fun. It'll be exciting. And Saturday we'll be able to see people in Chicago again. I went there once in 2015 and I really like I don't know much about the city. I've heard so much about it. So I'm excited to kind of explore around and see what it's like. Chad, good morning. He says, "Where's your shitty instant coffee?" Chad, we don't do the instant coffee anymore. We grew out of it. We grew out of it. Now, literally now I just drink water all day to be honest. Literally, that's that's the only uh accelerant I have throughout the day. Jason will be there as well. That's gonna be really exciting. Get to see him again. I get to see him again for the second time in like two months. So, I'm excited to see him again as well.
Martin, what's up? Charles Vrock A5 Jon Pentress. All right, let's get into it.
Thank you everybody for being here and let's get started. So, first off, we got some Iran news that is actually pretty bullish as well. So, the big update yesterday was that Iran and the United States are now negotiating on this memorandum that would allow the ability for uh uranium enrichment to end. We got another update this morning. Iran is showing surprising openness to Washington's main demand, the removal of its stockpile of uranium enriched to 60% to a third country. At this stage, no agreements have yet been uh reached regarding the identity of the country that will absorb the database, but talks are ongoing. Now, once again, we don't know necessarily if this is going to be happening or not, but uh given the progress of the talks that have been happening over the past couple days, and you know, oil fell a nice 7% yesterday.
Oil is at Wow, it's actually a 90 this morning. Look at that. It was at 97 last night. Okay, so that headline that I just read, that's probably uh the reason behind it. If Iran is really getting rid of some of their enriched uranium, uh I would imagine the street's going to think, okay, that's an end to the conflict. Or at least that's a pretty good way to think that this is a conflict that is going to end, which is right in time for July 4th, America 250.
It's right in time for Trump campaigning for the midterms. I mean, if you can get that oil price to start coming down and the markets start reflecting it, I think people are just going to have a much more positive view, especially given, you know, people's memories are short in the context of the president or the Republican party as they go to the midterm elections. This was also something that kind of indicated to me that Trump is pretty happy about what's happening. stock market hit an all-time high today. He tweeted yesterday, "Jobs and 401ks are booming."
So, uh, pretty obvious that Trump does not want to go back into a war. Trump does not want to fight. Trump does not want to start bombing civilian infrastructure, even though he keeps saying if Iran doesn't sign a deal, he'll do it because if he does, he knows the stock market's probably going to go down. Oil is going to go up, and that's not the right thing to do. And quite frankly, again, April 2nd, I think he announced a ceasefire. And I think at that moment it was obvious that he does not want to go into a war. He's looking for an off-ramp. You had so many different people that are not literally part of the administration but that are close to the administration saying this guy does not want to get into World War II. And even though he kept threatening, remember that day he he said there will be death on upon an entire civilization or something. You kind of just have to look past it and be like, "Okay, no, like he's not like he's not actually going that far." But obviously the sensational nature of his rhetoric and how the media portrays it, you know, got a lot of people to believe that he could go that far. And just like the tariffs, he tends to hype things up only to try to get a deal. And so if we're going to get a deal, even if it's 10 to 12 years on uranium richmen, not 20 or not five, meet somewhere in the middle, unfree some of the assets, let go of some of the sanctions, maybe that's going to be what the market needs. And quite frankly, if the market is this bullish and we don't even really have the deal, I wonder what the hell happens when we seriously do get a deal uh and where the market goes from there. And I think the market globally is starting to uh interpret that. Look at Japan yesterday, guys. The Nikk up 5.6%.
It's not easy for an entire index for a country to go up 5.6%. I mean, I don't know when the last time the S&P actually went up 5.6%. We've had a couple of 2.3% days, but 5 and a half%. Now, I know that, you know, Nikk is smaller than the S&P, but man, that is a lot of excitement and momentum. Cosby was also up another 4.3%. That's in South Korea.
So, you're starting to get a lot of different global players. The global markets have vastly outperformed the S&P 500 this year, but you're starting to see them continue to outperform the S&P as they start to price in some of this good news. Now, a lot of people are also saying, well, when he does announce the deal, it could be a sell the news and it could be one of those things where the market is topped and we're kind of, you know, already in a certain level of euphoria and excitement. And I have a couple stats on this that I think will be interesting to share with everybody.
But I'm not saying that's not a possibility. The question is just how likely do people feel that that is a possibility that once we get the biggest piece of news we need, which is that the war is officially over and we have reached a deal, that the market sells it off because of it's all priced in. And honestly, I don't know. I think there's other reasons the market could fall, but I feel like that would be a reason for people to be a bit more excited. Tom Lee continues to believe even though we hit his target of 7,300 and that stocks offer a good risk-to-reward 20% draw down feels likely from here.
>> Um, I am Scott. I I think that 7,300 originally was like an aspirational level and now that we're here, I I I think that there still is fuel for a move higher from here. But we do have to confront later this year uh two things and maybe it won't affect the markets but I think it it's the trigger for a draw down. One is of course the market will test a new Fed and this incoming Fed chair has some different theories on the sources of inflation and how to read inflation and so the market I believe will put those views to the test. And of course the second is that uh every day that the straight is closed we know that there's an acute shortage developing of petroleum products. So if price reacts later this year, that's going to test the market. So I do think there's the ingredients for turbulence later, but AI and the scarcity and and the US is the provider of that scarcity is why I think we can exit 77 or higher and maybe 2027 is one of the biggest rallies we see in our lifetime. So I think it's still a bullish outlook, but turbulence in the middle.
So again, you know, how much do you believe that turbulence in the middle is actually going to happen? Uh if it does happen, I don't think everyone anyone's going to be super surprised, especially if it's like 5 to 8% from here. If it's 20% 15% from here, I think a lot more people are going to be a bit curious on how the hell that's happening or what's the catalyst to make that happen. And you know, time will tell to see over the coming weeks and months, I guess, if Tom Lee is right about this. Now, the other reason before we get into some of the earnings why I think some people are saying this can't happen is because take a look at a few of these charts right now. Let's get into some of this uh some of this macro stuff. So, this chart I thought was really important by Goldman Sachs. So, from April 2024 to April 2026, you're looking at the tokens processed per month and uh this is your global token capacity so far. I think it's like 10 quadrillion. Then as we get into the second half of 2026, you're seeing token economics turn turn positive based on the unit economics and the cost for inference going down. And by 2030, Goldman is assuming that to token consumption will be up more than 12x based on non-agent workloads and consumer agents. This is also your thesis for CPUs, by the way. Um because the more inference and agentic workloads you have, the more CPUs are going to be required. This is why Intel and and AMD have been rerated.
And imagine this is bearish. Imagine it's not token consumption up by 12x 2030. Imagine it's something like 20x.
That is why I think we're seeing the type of the bull market that we're seeing right now. Because once again, people are just assuming well the thing that's going to change right there is earnings growth and that will lead stock prices to continue to get rerated. And it, you know, it's interesting to kind of take a look at this. Uh an important stat from yesterday that I thought was incredibly interesting to see. Um, in the dotcom bubble, or at least going into 1999, the average top 10 NASDAQ 100 stock was up 596%.
Going into the March 2000 um top, we were up 650% on the average NASDAQ 100 stock. Currently, right now, the average NASDAQ 100 stock, the top 10 going into or going over a one-year basis, is up 765%. So, the average 10 stocks over the past year in the NASDAQ right now are surpassing the one-year gains leading up into the do-com bubble in 1999 and 2000.
So, you've seen this massive increase in terms of uh the amount of companies that have obviously started to do well, but then you look at this chart right here.
The red on the screen is the forward earnings and the blue is the capitalization share of the S&P 500 versus the semiconductors. And it's going up and up and up. And I think we talked about this yesterday. The reason why the market has continued to surge, at least for semiconductors as a part of the S&P, which is now 17% concentrated, is because of that earnings growth. And I think you have you have to draw a line in the sand right here. Either you believe this token consumption reality is real, and we're going to need way more memory, way more packaging, way more co-acked optics. We're going to need way more of all these different things that are part of the supply chains that make AI real, which is why we've seen so many stocks go up this year because they are critical elements of that supply chain. Or you believe it's not going to happen. And I just based on everything I'm seeing every day and covering every day based on what I use every day. Someone asked what are consumer agents? These are things on your phone or uh your desktop that are going to be doing things for you autonomously, right? And that's going to lead to a lot more tokens. Based on all those experiences that I've had over the past couple years, I feel like I got to default to the more bullish side, which is that this is going to be much bigger than we think. And maybe that means that stock prices are still a bit elevated compared to uh the short-term nature of the rise of the stock price on a variety of these different names that have gone vertical. But does it mean that thesis is wrong over the next five years?
Maybe not. If we're going to grow as much as we're going to grow, which means once again bullish everything, right?
Like now maybe certain sectors right now are not benefiting like a fintech or software. But if this AI revolution is as real as it is, all these software companies will become more efficient or they're going to go dead, right? It's like one or the other. So you got to kind of pick the right horse there. All these fintech companies should become more powerful, stronger, stable coins, agentic commerce, all this stuff should help them at the end of the day, even if the market right now is not interpreting it. Which is why it's very exciting to cover the markets right now and be an investor because it feels like this is quite frankly going to be one of the best five-year stretches if not 10-year stretches in history. Now, we've talked extensively about the bare case. I did a substack over the weekend highlighting all the bare cases for a Sunday night future show. We spent an hour talking about all the different ways that this doesn't play out. But if we want to be optim more optimistic and say it is going to play out in that way, then that's what we got to see in the context of the earnings. And that is why stocks are going green in the pre-market on some good earnings. Data dog that's up 30%. They absolutely crushed earnings. Now, uh once again, the market's being a bit selective here in terms of what companies they give the premium to because some of these names crush earnings and they don't get anything. Some of these names crush earnings and they go down. But you got data dog right here. Revenue 1 billion.
That's up 32% year-over-year. not growing as fast as every other software company, but it's fast enough where the stock was down, I think, 5% going into the year where they changed the narrative. EPS, that's up 30% year-over-year. Customers with 100,000 ARR, that is up uh 21% year-over-year in their gross margin. Slight miss 80% versus 80.7, but that was still green.
CEO said, "Data Dog executed to a strong quarter with 32% year-over-year growth.
Uh 3035 million in operating cash flow.
We are helping customers of all sizes and industries deploy modern cloud-based AI enabled solutions." I think that was the sentence right there along with the beat and raise that got the street to be excited. This idea of more cloud-based AI enabled solutions across the scale. I mean obviously the cloud computing companies have gotten so much momentum.
That is why you're seeing this type of green and I also think that's why the market is more excited for uh some of these software names. Applovin also had a pretty good earnings. Street didn't care. I think this is more of like an advertising thing that the street is not happy about even though they gave Reddit some of that love. Um, and I don't know what Apploven has to do. Goldman Sachs raised their price target to 585. You had Jeff raised their price target. So, bunch of different uh firms came out this morning and said, "Hey, we think this was an amazing quarter." Um, but overall, the streets did not fully like it. 1.28 billion of free cash flow for Q1. 55% year-over-year growth. EPS they beat by 3%. Revenue they beat by 3%.
Revenue is up 60% year-over-year. EPS is up 113% year-over-year. I did not listen to the call, but Tanner right there says that the app call was amazing.
I would default to that. They also did a video call. So, you got more of these companies. Yeah, you have trade desk tonight, which is going to be important.
Um, I mean, you you you also h have them kind of embracing shareholders by like getting on video and actually talking to them, right? So, we're seeing more companies do that, but still the streets didn't care. So, I don't know. Maybe you compare multiples when it comes to apploving and data dog and say this was a multiple uh based rally for why data dog is up versus apploven is down but you know data dog's PE is 500 apploven's PE is 30 so it's it's one of those things where it's like is it really valuation and if it is valuation does the market even care about valuation right now because there's a lot of stocks that are going crazy on earnings where the market has completely dismissed valuation I mean AMD has fundamentally uh increased its valuation against Nvidia right here 130 on the trailing 12 months PE, but the market doesn't care because the market cares about growth. Appleven gave you way more growth than a data dog, but the market cares more about a data dog in terms of its stock price than App1. So, I think we're in a little bit of a weird spot in terms of how the market is calling its winners and losers. But, you know, the ones that are winning, even if they are not in the right sector, is good for the overall sector because Data Dog up 32%.
That's helping IGB get a nice 2.7% gain in the pre-market. Snowflake, I think, is just benefiting from a Data Dog as that's up 10%. They're kind of in the same space even though they're slightly different. I don't see a headline on Snowflake, but uh does anyone have a headline on Snowflake? I do not. Nope. No headline on Snowflake.
Yeah, I would imagine that's getting a bid from Mr. uh Mr. Data Dog. Shopify that's up a little bit 2%. Spy is up a little bit 733. Google again crossing 400. And then Rocket Lab 86 as that is green. HIMYMX.
This is another name in the photonix place that is going up 30% right here.
It's a small cap 2.15 billion. We've seen this story a couple of times this year. These small cap photonix names, Poet was the one recently that had a massive run and then it kind of came down. Um, but HIMX, this one, I believe they either had earnings this morning or you had a headline uh getting rerated right here as that's also getting a big.
Yeah. HimX said, "Our existing capacity is more than sufficient to support our hundreds of millions of annual sales for us. We will utilize our existing fabs which are actually fully utilized for this application can already generate hundreds of millions of annual sales for us with a very different profit." They saying demand outstrips supply. We are not worried about competition. The customers have put it out right to us that there are potential demand in the early stage and there's actually more that outweighs what we can supply especially in the context of um mass production. They also said once mass production begins we believe CPO co-ackage optics again your kind of photonics thesis will deliver the strongest growth among all our product lines growth is likely to sustain for the years to come. So memory and photonix have been where the bottlenecks have been isolated across the at least semiconductor supply chain for now and those are the names that have caught the bid. Zcaler is up 54 5.4 I think that's getting bid from Fordinet which absolutely demolished earnings. This one deserves the 15% right here. here. I mean, they crushed at a level that I've never seen Fortnite crushed before. It was one of the smaller cyber security companies at 65 billion. That's up 15%.
Crowd Strike is also catching a bid off that 2.68. Crowd Strike was at 330 a month ago. That's now at 480. And then we had Door Dash also kind of miss on revenue beat on EPS. That stock's up 9%.
Not sure whether Street loves it that much. Uh but Door Dash right there getting a bit more of a bit. People are asking why is Micron down today? So once again, uh, Micron gave a dip opportunity yesterday at 628 and then we recovered.
I wonder if today down 2% is just basic pre-market stuff. Um, some of your photonics plays also were down. Coherent had a good earnings, not as good as Lentum. That stock down 5%. Granted, it's up 50% for the year. So once again, a Micron that's up 117% if it's down 2%.
I don't know if people care too much.
And then Momentum also down 2% after being down 5% yesterday as well. Amazon US Bank expands strategic collaboration with AWS for digital transformation.
Amazon just keeps announcing more stuff.
Another announcement that Amazon had today, they're expanding access to oral ompic with sameday delivery. Amazon pharmacy expands to access to Novo Nordisk oral Ozmpic offers sameday prescription delivery across nearly 3,000 cities. Feels very obvious at this point that Amazon is uh going to just continue to become one of the most important companies on the planet. Today we have a lot of important earnings. Coreweave is on deck. That was up 8% yesterday, down 2% today. I is also uh down 3% that was up 11% yesterday. That will also have earnings. You have Sound Rock Lab. I'll be live with Sam. I believe we will listen to Ian. We did technical Wednesday with Jason yesterday. So, uh, we're not going to be doing technical Thursday. So, we'll probably listen to Irene, uh, and we'll see what Daniel Roberts can give us right here, but we have a lot of other companies reporting before we get into the call. And so, this stuff is definitely going to be a big day. Sound, Mardo, Libre, Airbnb, Trade Desk, Cloudflare, MP, which is another name that's getting some attention in the rare earth space given the Trump administration does have a stake in that. That's up 1.4%. Open Door, Redcat, Drones, which Kratos didn't have the best earnings. The drone stocks, it's kind of crazy. We got into a war. You would think the drone stocks would catch a bid and no, they really haven't. They've kind of been a dud all year, even after they pumped in January.
So, uh, Redcat, that's going to be important one. DraftKings, AOI, another Photonix play, HubSpot, Monster Energy, Texas Roadhouse, Dropbox, Win, Sweet Green, Billings, Lyft, SMR, your nuclear stuff. Just got a lot a lot of companies today that we're going to be able to take a look at as we uh get through it. Is Matt covering Rocket Lab? You know, I think Matt's in the United Kingdom for work, so he's probably not covering Rocket Lab, but someone will cover it. We will cover it even if we don't listen to the call. And I'm sure someone will be streaming the call as well. Uh, another update today around these AI companies and how much money they're making. This one was pretty freaking interesting. So, Samsung offered their staff 13% of the chip operating profit after AI drove Q1 record net profits to 36.1 billion.
Samsung will do more operating profit than Google this year. That implies a 4.7 billion bonus, but the unions at Samsung want a 15% bonus plus plus a 7% wage hike, and they could start an 18-day strike on May 21st.
So you have one of the eight trillion dollar companies on the planet located in South Korea, Samsung, SKH not too far behind at 750 billion which got an 87% price upgrade the other day uh from one of the South Korean investment firms. So you know a lot of these banks think that the SKH basically become a $2 trillion company which essentially would make Micron closer to $2 trillion company as well if you put the same multiple on it.
um you're getting some of the workers that Samsung say, "Hey, we want a bigger piece of the pie." And uh as a result of that, there's just so much money going around that Samsung might have to end up paying more of the workers. The fact that there's that much money that they are making off the glut of supply, I mean, it's quite incredible. RXT 70% up Rackspace Technology, this stock, this is funny. This is, we were doing TA on this yesterday with Jason.
This is hilarious. This stock was at freaking uh basically $30 in 2021.
They've now pivoted to data center work sub 71%. It is a small company 565 million is going to open above a billion. Uh they are a cloud computing company based in San Antonio, Texas. I would imagine what they said. Yeah. Oh wow. They signed a deal with AMD. There it is. RXD signs a deal with AMD for cloud-based compute and that's green. RXD quarterly earnings. They lost 6 cents a share. Uh they beat estimates on revenue and the AMD deal. I'm trying to get some more details on this is why the streets pumping. You know, a while ago it was you partner with Nvidia and you make a deal. Now it's you partner with AMD. Um they I'm looking at the specifics of this deal right here. They are working with Nvidia to rent GPU capacity by the hour and carry the operational burden themselves including integration security and accountability. The collaboration proposes to invert the model by integrating AMD chips.
Throughout this understanding, the company's aim to establish a new category of managed enterprise AI infrastructure embedded in a governed operating model.
Yeah. I mean, again, I I think you you have to it's one of the So, let's ask this question to everybody before we get into some of the other news. I I'll actually do a poll right here. I mean, I feel like you have to either be a believer or a non-believer at this point of what's happening in regards to the supply chain and the data centers and the construction and the buildings of AI. We'll talk about eBay in a second.
You either believe in this or you don't.
If you believe in it, every dip has to be bought. And again, it doesn't have to be like you buy the dip if stock's down $10. But the point is when there are opportunities, regardless of why the opportunity is presenting itself, uh you would have to assume it's not because we've topped, it's because of something that the market is being inefficient about, just like in March. And we will eventually get through it. And a lot of these names will continue to go higher if the token generation, the compute capacity simply is going up. So the question is, do you believe this semibuildout lasts for another five years? I think the EPS speaks for itself. Yeah. And I think that's also why, you know, when you listen to some of the bears make their arguments, it's hard to fathom the dot comparison. It sounds comparative when you bring up the Buffett indicator and the stock price performance and all this stuff, but the earnings growth is inconceivable compared to and the guidance on the raising of the earnings growth which Micron will crush again just like Sandis did. Uh Sandis right there is slightly down in the pre-market 1381.
I mean, if you believe that that's going to continue, it's just harder and harder and harder to deny that some of these names have more room to go. And you know that pushes back against some of the arguments around FOMO. It's like is it FOMO to say that Oracle at 200 will eventually be Oracle at 300 or 350 as compute capacity grows and they will get even more contracts yada yada. Is it crazy to say Nebus will eventually be 250? Now it's tough to buy it here at these levels given it's up so much.
That's fair. But that's when you really just have to have a long-term view and say look if I buy Nebius at 189 and it goes to 160 it'll suck. But, uh, DCA is your friend and the the odds that this thing is much higher than 189 over the coming years that they just get more deals is probably going to be, uh, more relevant than not. And and that brings us into the conversation around SpaceX, which this was just a f phenomenal thing that happened yesterday. And quite frankly, it was Elon once again proving that he will contradict himself when he needs to contradict himself. So Elon has never been a fan of anthropic. Um, and you know, he's called the misanthropic.
He's never been happy with the woke AI or all the stuff that they've created.
But SpaceX signed an agreement with Enthropic yesterday to provide access to Colossus 1. What is Colossus 1? 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, H100s, H200s, and Grace Blackwells. Anthropic plans use use this additional compute to directly improve capacity for cloud pro and cloud max subscribers. I think there's two things that are obvious here. Number one, Grock is not working. If Grock had the level of demand that Chachi Gemini or Claude did, Elon would use all the compute capacity that he bought from Jensen over the past two years and use it to surface demand for for for Grock. I mean, you have Claude literally stopping people from making multiple accounts because they don't have the compute capacity.
And then Elon sitting on all these GPUs that he doesn't technically need for Grock because there's just not that much demand for Grock. So, anyone saying that, you know, this was him being charitable or something like no, it's a business decision. Grock obviously doesn't have the type of demand. Like I've seen some people try to defend this. I'm like, what are you talking about? If if Grock had a billion people every day try to code up their own um website every other second or something like obviously he would need more compute. He doesn't because there's just not that demand because the model's not as good. Doesn't mean the model's dead.
It just doesn't mean it's that good. So he's being strategic and saying look people need to buy SpaceX stock when it goes public. We need more revenue streams. We have all these excess GPUs.
We just acquired XAI. Why don't we license it just like a Nebus does, just like a Corewave does, just like an Iron does and become a Neil cloud and we could become the ultimate Neocloud because we have more compute. We have more GPUs than all those companies. The estimates that some people ran on this would be about 5 billion a year in revenue for XAI based on this one deal of licensing the cohort of GPUs that they're licensing to Anthropic.
Anthropic loves it because now they have more capacity for cloud code. All they care about is compute. It is literally an arms race for compute, right? That's what they need in order to grow. And I think SpaceX loves it because they weren't using the GPUs anyway for their specific workflows or their their um their workloads, which means now they get to make extra revenue. And so to me, it actually makes a lot of sense. I think it's strategic. I think it's another way to juice up the IPO and get people to be excited about it. Um but it also highlights that Grock is just not working. And I think Elon's admitting it without admitting it, which is fair.
It's like it just didn't end up winning in the race for the models. Uh but that doesn't mean that Elon can't still monetize the GPUs. And again, Anthropic's happy about it because they are growing like crazy and they need a lot more compute >> growth per year. Um, in the first quarter of this year, we saw if you were to annualize it, 80x growth per year in in in in in in in revenue and usage. And and and so that that that is the reason we have had difficulties with compute, right? We've planned for anything from it only grows a little to it grows 10x and yet we saw 80x. Um and and and so you know as you saw today with the the the the SpaceX compute deal, we're working as quickly as possible to provide more more compute than uh than than we have in the past.
We'll continue to do so. We'll pass that compute on to you as as as as soon as we can as soon as we can do so. Um, I I I guess I hope the ADX growth doesn't continue because that's just crazy and it's too hard to too hard to handle. I hope for some more normal more normal uh uh more normal numbers. Uh a mere a mere a mere 10x. Um uh but we will we will manage it uh absolutely as uh we will manage it absolutely as uh best we can and uh you know we're we're every day trying to uh trying to obtain even more compute that that we can uh we can we can we can pass on to you. We're sorry if sometimes it takes some time but uh we're gonna we're gonna we're going to keep going to acquire as much as we can.
I mean, when someone is laughing about how fast they're growing and the fact that they need that much growth to be able to sustain the level of uh demand that they're getting, forget the revenue growth that they're putting up. Forget the raw numbers, 1 billion to 44 billion. Just the way he's speaking is like, yeah, I mean, it would be nice to not grow 80x 10x would be more reasonable because it's really hard to handle that type of growth. I mean you talk about demand issues. It's like there I mean they're the the the press release yesterday said that Anthropic will it will sign up as one of the first customers to um engage in orbital data center compute because Anthropic is like dude if you can give us the compute on the planet at the sun on the moon in space wherever you can get it to us just get it to us because the demand for what we have and it's not just them it's also open AI it's a Gemini it's a variety of these products is just insatiable and that's leading to the type of momentum that we're seeing so That type of commentary also tells me we might not be as early as we were three years ago, but we are still in the early innings because again there's still billions and billions of people on this planet. I mean I would venture there's maybe 1 billion people across the world that use AI realistically.
Just like there's only I think about 4.7 billion people that even use the internet. There's still half the world or 40% of the world that doesn't even use the internet. So you know they're not even on the internet yet. AI is going to take a while to get there. once they eventually come on the internet or use AI, then obviously that's also going to be super super important to see how this plays out. We are spoiled by Emit's public speaking skills. That was kind of funny, dude. He was having a little bit of a moment right there. He's having a bit of a moment.
>> We saw, if you were to annualize it, 80x growth per year in in in in in in in revenue and use.
>> That's a lot of ins, bro. Even I don't stutter that. I mean, I stutter, but not that much.
>> 80x growth per year in in in in in in in in in revenue.
>> That's like an elongated stutter.
Like I've stuttered I think the max I've report repeated a word is like four to five times. This dude went for almost 15 times >> to annualize it. 80x growth per year in in in in in in in in revenue.
He's he's said as many ins as he is generating tokens every day for his customers. Paul Tudtor Jones, his thoughts on if we're in a bubble or not.
>> In terms of the markets, we're at these record highs. It's a remarkable situation. I think in large part driven by AI.
>> Correct. Um, on the other end, we have the situation in the Middle East, which has been a question mark, but for whatever reason, at least the way the markets are thinking about it, maybe not as big a question mark as we might think. You just got back from a big AI conference that I think has your head spinning, >> right?
>> I thought maybe you could help us understand. And I remember last year you were with us, I think right around this time, right, when you had been to maybe the same conference, >> 50 years conference, >> and I think you had people, frankly, a little freaked out last year.
>> Yeah. I I would say um I would say this one was was uh was really interesting. Um some of the key some of the key takeaways the first the good part the good part is in two years with mRNA vaccines uh empowered by AI start a war so we can get reelected at the time I don't know what I I thought that's the dumbest thing that's the that's how could Hollywood even write that and then of course now it's kind of like okay well that's politics 101 it's the starting the of the playbook So >> although it hasn't really helped Trump's approval ratings in any way, shape or form.
>> No, but I'm just saying life imitates art too often, right? So, so that simulation gave me pause. Then I'd say the the one that I thought was the most interesting. So uh there was the question because we're there was a discussion about how how is AI going to have an ethical and moral foundation and one of the heads of one of the models uh said you know we're going to take the the greatest human beings in history with the greatest wisdom and that's probably going to use foundationally how we do it. We'll have Jesus Christ. We'll have Aristotle and Socrates and we'll have Gandhi and we'll have the greatest humans and that's probably how that how these models are going to be able to talk to us when we have our own personal bots. And then someone said, "Okay, how many people in this room how many people in this room believe um you have a soul?"
No more definition than that than that.
Out of the 50 people in that room, how many do you think said we have a soul?
>> People have a soul.
>> 48.
>> I'm gonna go low.
>> Okay. What's your number?
>> 10%.
>> Uh, you're right. It was five. Five out of 45 said we have a soul now.
>> And that's who's deciding the future of human.
>> But but just hold it. You have to realize these are the smartest scientists, mathematicians, physicists in the world who've risen to the top.
>> Okay. I don't know if that has anything to do with uh what's going on with AI.
I guess his argument is we're going to take the smartest people and train models on them.
I don't know if that's necessarily going to work when it comes to setting up an ethical foundation for AI. Maybe it does. Uh but the point is he's I think even conceding right there that the fact that our future is going to be governed by some of these models means that we need to train these models on some of the best people that we've had in the past is establishing the fact that these models are going to be super super important. Where do you keep your soul?
I have no idea. I have Becky and Andrew must just be like I don't know how to answer this question.
Uh micron right there down about 2%. So you know even Paul Tudtor Jones who has been cautious around this AI revolution he is actually more cautious than um than uh than than than Howard Mars.
Howard Mars thinks it's not a bubble at all. Paul Jones has said you know we've got maybe one or two years left. That's one of the quotes he had this morning as well that we have about one or two years left before this ends up completely collapsing.
I mean, if that's the case, then obviously stocks might be very attractive for the next one or two years, but if it's not one or two years because we've just got so much more growth to lean on, then, you know, maybe there's a lot more of a thesis in terms of how this is ultimately going to play out. And again, defaulting to what Daario says, if they continue to grow at that level, that's going to be important. Also, you know, it's it's important to understand that right now, as you can see on this chart right here, 50% of our GDP growth, once again, are these models. It's AI. It's capex. So, we kind of can't have that slowdown in any meaningful way. Iran's foreign minister will stop in Pakistan on his way from China. Uh Saudi Arabia will restrict US access to bases, airspace until US provides proper protection from Iran's attacks as per Gulf sources.
Also, you add Germany's finance ministers say Trump's irresponsible war and resulting energy price shock is putting brakes on economic momentum.
Okay. again, oil down today, which is good to see because we got some updates around more negotiations. Hopefully that continues. Got the Saudis who want some more protection. Obviously, their refineries have been hit. Uh Iran's foreign minister is going to Pakistan.
Trump is going to China soon. Trump did say that he thinks he can get a deal done before he goes to China, which is in 8 days.
And hopefully we see what happens. I'm not doing a poll on where you guys think your soul lives.
Goodness. Where what what would the choices even be on that poll?
Where is your soul? What did you guys say on the other poll though? So, um we got a minute until we open. 68% say yes, this semi-buildout lasts for another five years.
Okay. I mean, obviously the majority of people once again believing that this thing will continue. And if it does continue, then it's likely not going to be stopping the momentum that soon. Let's do red or green real quick in the chat before we get into it. What do we think is happening today? We're going to have Jose on at 10:30 and then we'll have Stock Talk on at 11. So, we'll have Jose on at 10:30. Give us a breakdown of AMD and all the different semiconductor names that had earnings today.
And then we'll have Stock Talk on at 11 and give us an update on how he's thinking about this market. Who stutters more, Amit or Dario? I don't stutter that much. I mean, I stutter for sure. I don't think I've ever had that long of a stutter, though. And now I'm gonna have to do it just to trip everybody off. I'm gonna have to do it. All right, here we go. Five more seconds of peace and quietness before the inevitable 9:30 a.m. where once again, only the fearful will mute. The people that are ready to embrace everything will not mute because the stock market is now open.
All right, wake your ass up. Let's get into it. S&P 500 735.
We are green on the day. A little bit of green, but we are green. Everything else is going red. Coreweave down. Okay, corre down six is a little aggressive.
That's a pretty ugly candle. I ran down four, Lum down three, Coherent down five, Micron down two, Sandis down three, Nebby is down five. All right, so some of your hottest data center stocks, memory stocks, comput stocks from yesterday immediately getting dumped at the open. ARM is down seven. We'll talk more about their earnings. It really wasn't the best. I would not be surprised to see this pivot though. I would not be surprised to see this reverse. It's just they did not talk about CPUs in the way that I think they needed to for the street to be super excited. Door Dash up eight. Uh Crowd Strike up five. Forinet up 20. They actually had a great earnings. The stock has been dead for about a couple well I would say since like late 2024. So it's getting some momentum right here. It was at this price basically around end of 2023. 10777 back to that that's now up 19%. Zcaler that's up 7%. Uh HIMX that's up 20%. Another Photonix play. Snowflake up 11% based on Data Dog. Data Dog is up 35%.
The streets seem to really like those numbers. Qualcomm down two. DRAM ETF down 1.7. Oaklo down 1.7. Starbucks down 1%.
Astera down four. Western Digital down two. Apply down two. Korea is down 1%.
Intel is down 1%. This this isn't a lot of red, but it's all the typical semiconductor names that were green over the past couple days. uh are getting a little bit of a hit in the pre-market.
Sofi is green. Zeta is green. Adobee's green. Salesforce is green. Atlassian is green. I bet Palenter is green. Paler is green. Uh I would imagine Salesforce is green. Salesforce is green. So software getting a bid even if it's a tiny one.
Google lost 400 pretty quickly. 397.
Space as well getting a Okay, so space fintech and software market cares about again. We'll see how long that lasts.
Uh, and then semi's taken the hit today.
Meta, I guess you could put into that camp since Meta rallies when Micron goes down. Microsoft as well, 422. That's IGV. That's going green. OSS had a monster move yesterday. It continues right here, up 7%. I did not sell any of my OSS yesterday. Um, did not expect a 55% move. Stock talk will probably explain more about that move and kind of why he thinks it went as vertical as it did when he gets on the show. But, uh, massive move continuing 1620. I think yesterday got to 1640 then came back down to 15. So you're starting to see probably a lot more people get excited about it. 1632 that's up 6.4%.
AOI. Is that getting a dump? That is getting a dump. Down five.
Apple alltime highs 4.26 trillion. It's been a while since Apple got to all-time highs.
There you go. 4.25 trillion. That is great for the S&P. It's great for my stock draft and I mean it's great for the broader economy as Apple continues to have massive demand for their products. I contributed to that two weeks ago buying a new iPhone. Um but the supply shortages are the issue which is why Intel has also been catching the bid this week given Apple's probably going to rely on them. Intel flip screen. Intel flip screen. Tesla did we get 410? We are at 410 exactly up 2.8%.
So nice pivot from 395 to 410. You know, honestly, the reason I would say this is happening just like top of mind, I think that the street thinks, all right, if Elon just made SpaceX into a Neocloud eventually, what if he does something similar either by combining SpaceX and Tesla or just having Tesla rent out excess compute? Now, Tesla needs a lot of compute as well. But maybe that's another revenue stream that could get the street to be more excited.
Cororeevee, that's down four. Now, one could argue Cororee, I rent, and Nebus are down because SpaceX became a NeoCloud last night and people are saying that reduces demand for their products. I think that's a very weird take given how much demand there is for compute in general. So like yeah, Nebius is not getting the anthropic deal, but you know, I'm sure there's plenty of other deals that they'll be able to get.
Nebas right there down 4%. Micron down 1.5. Coherent that's down for Celsius, are we green? Celsius is flat.
Doc, Digital Ocean, that stock is also down seven. Now it was up 40 over the past week. So can't blame it to be uh taking a little bit bre bit of a breather. Corning also was up 18% yesterday. Fell down about 9%. Now it's up about 2% with that Nvidia partnership which is I think very bullish. SoFi 1630. Rubric all your software names finally catching a bid today. I don't know how long it's going to last though because even yesterday software was up for a little bit and then Micron came back to 660. Software ended up dumping.
So maybe the rotation for the day is software over semis, but it's only been five minutes. So we have to see if that sticks through. Grabs up 1%. Starbucks down 2%. Dell's down 2.8. Adobe, Salesforce, Zeta, Atlassian, Old Green, UNH, that is flat. Shift forward, did they have earnings yet? That's up 16%. I would imagine they had earnings.
Disney was up yesterday.
Uh, we talked about Data Dog. Celsius.
Oh, they did have earnings. Celsius beat by 41% on EPS. They beat by 3% on revenue. EPS is up 128% year-over-year.
Revenue is up 130%. Street does not care. That's a pretty big beat.
McDonald's had earnings. They beat by 2% on EPS, beat by 1% on revenue.
McDonald's is flat.
Um, and then you had Pagaya that had earnings. They beat by 30% on EPS. I believe this is another fintech. Missed by 2% on revenue. PGY that is up 8%.
Okay, so fintech and software at least somewhat getting some momentum.
Meta 621. Nice to see Meta finally back into the 620s. Shake Shack down 28%.
Uh kind of scared about what that means for Texas Roadhouse if any misses exist on revenue. Shift four, they beat by 1% on EPS. They beat by 2.7% on revenue.
So, you had a beat and a beat on shipped 4. Tesla 413.
I don't think there's a specific Tesla headline outside of the SpaceX anthropic deal. Maybe that's what's helping it, but I don't see anything. Oh, hold on.
No, you had this headline. Tesla China made EV sales jumped 36% in April.
China made EVs rose 36%. Shanghai delivered 79,478 Model 3s. This is Tesla's sixth consecutive month of total sales growth. That is definitely your headline right there giving you uh some momentum. 41275 up 3.4% as that one continues to go green. OSS did we just go red? Okay, we got we didn't go red yet, but we lost a good chunk of the pump. 1695 to 1567. Corning 184.95. Sel, that's up 27%. They had a great earnings last night as well. That was uh a big one. Google is not 400, but it is 397. I mean, it touched 400 premarket, so I would imagine it's inevitable this we'll get that break above 400. Look at AMD be a champ. Even though it's down on the day, it's down a couple bucks. Like, you talk about normalizing the 400s. It's only been two days, but imagine for the next month, it's just a forehand. And that makes it easy for people when it drops low to buy the dip even with a forehandle. Fordinet 22% as that continues to go green. When did you buy OSS? in early January around 990. We actually had stock talk pitch the thesis when we were in Vegas together and I think it was like 850 at the time on that stream we did. So he'll talk more about it today but yeah around 990 is I think when I got in Rocket Lab 8396 Oracle 1988 84 that's up 2.5 Kel infrastructure this is Bit Farms this actually went up yesterday from three to four now it's at 4.01 slowed down 2.4% 4% service now catching a little bit more of a bid as that is green. Reddit's down. QXO is down. Rocket Lab's down. Where's Applovven? Applovin's down five. Dude, that is crazy.
It's markets being so All of software is pumping, too. So, this is an Apploven issue right now.
Something Apploven said market did not like. And they're not even technically a SAS. I mean, I know they they're qualified as a SAS, but they're not really software as a service. Robin had also read Bitcoin losing 81 unfortunately 80.7 as that's down. Software is up because of data dog. That's correct, but not all software apparently given apploving.
Oh, they had a mix shelf offering.
Charlie, how much did they offer in the mix shelf? Do you know? Wolf speed that's up 5.4.
Fastly beat on revenue or beat on EPS by 44%. But the guide was bad and that's why that stock's getting hit. It was kind of the opposite of doc. Well, the guide wasn't bad. It was just in line.
It wasn't a massive beat. Although DOCN is also getting hit right there 7.65%.
So that's why that one is getting hit 30. Had a recovery to 24 then fell back to another 20. So we have to see where it bottoms at. Vastly still is a software company technically even though it's a CDN.
>> But the CDN infrastructure stocks have been doing better.
as pure play CDNs versus software companies. Apple trying to go for 290, 28,940. Silver is pumping today. Is it silver? Wow, silver is getting a pump.
Yeah, and gold as well. Crowd strikes being carried by the Fortnite pump. I agree. Uh gold right there up almost 2%, 4,700. Silver now at 81. It's been a while since we've seen silver actually make a move. January 30th kind of mark marked the top for both silver and gold.
Since then, they've had bounces, but not really moves to be excited for. Fluence Energy 25%.
That's up. This one was down from about 30 back in January.
Fuel cell technology decent earnings 24% as that is green. Meta, are we getting a move? We're getting something, folks.
622.
We're getting a little something here on the day. Microsoft moving with it as well. Uber also had a great earnings along with Door Dash. Look at Microsoft 3%. That's a big move for Microsoft.
Microsoft's still a $3 trillion company.
It's crazy because it was at 4 trillion for so long. It's just this year has not been its best year. Uber as well, that's up 1%.
And that's green. I think profit taking is happening from Sandis and Micron going into the disrespected Metas and Microsofts. So, I think we need a lot more data to say that because Micron being down 2%. I don't know if that's enough to say it's full-on profit taking and rotating. I think Micron needs to like go below 600 for that thesis to be legit. Uh and if it does, I wonder how many people come in and buy the dip. You also have to ask yourself how much uh like strength and momentum continues to be there for a a Micron, a SanDisk, a Corning like name any of the semi-names that have gone vertical. How many days can people wake up and say I'm buying into them? And you know, usually you need a catalyst. You have the Sandis SanDisk earnings which was the catalyst.
you have micron earnings which is the next catalyst you have the corning invidia partnership like every day if there's that new catalyst I think people can get up and just be like okay this is really important but you know if that catalyst kind of just dies down even for a few months maybe that's where we see the rotation so 1637 honest had a in my opinion uh not strong revenue growth quarter revenue was negative 19% year-over-year it was down 10% it has flipped to up 9% this is also another small cap their guide was better and their gross margins were better. So that might be what the street likes, but the revenue growth itself was a bit down. Tanner says, "What are you listening to tonight?" Tanner, I think Sam and I are doing I ren so you can probably do coreweave.
I feel like I owe everybody I because I said I was going to do it last time. I forgot Amazon was the same time and then ended up doing Amazon instead. So we're going to do Iren today. Tanner will probably do core weave pounder 138.40 40 coming back to life just a little bit. 3 and a half% right there. Just a little bit. That's green. Apple 289. SPY 734.
Red Wire that's up 1.5. Red Wire diluted yesterday by about 350 million. Earnings weren't that good, but at least the stock is kind of kind of holding up service now. Okay, 6%.
I don't know why the street woke up today and said software is what we like, but it goes to show you how much if you believe the software selloff is irrational and it's not terminally dead.
On a day like today where software just magically gets a pump when semis are down, I think it proves the thesis at least to an extent that these are algos that will dump software and pump semis and then dump semis and pump software.
Now, they're not going to get, you know, 200% year-to- date types of pumps like some of the semiconductor names, but Service Now getting back to 103 where it was before earnings, which is still a decent return from where most people bought it at in the low 90s, high 80s, is not a bad trade at all. And maybe the ALOS capitulate to give us some of that.
Nvidia basically flattened the day. 207 207.
Yeah, Service Now should change their name, as Andy says, to service currently right now. I can't believe I haven't thought of that before.
I need to get on a phone call with Bill Mcder.
I will get that stock pumping, baby.
I will get it absolutely freaking pumping.
Why is Figma up 11%? Because it's a software stock and today the street doesn't think Anthropic is going to kill it. It's actually comical. Like were any of these stocks 10% 12% worse than where they were today? No. And there's no major headlines that change the software narrative.
But nonetheless, the street thinks of them differently. And if the semis start pumping in the next 30, 40 minutes and software starts dumping, it's going to be even funnier. Nvidia 20750.
20750. IGV 9157. Did the Dow hit 50K?
The Dow is once again 50,000.
We are back to the Dow being where it was before um Pam Bondi proclaimed how important it was for the Dow to be 50. Wow. Palo Alto getting a nice little move as well. Palo Alto.
There you go. 198. That's up a they've had a bunch of acquisitions this year.
Uh Crowd Strike at 499. Wow. Crowd Strike 500 almost. That's Forinet and IGV coming together to pump up the semis. Zcaler also getting a bid up 10%.
There you go. If you're heavy into the semis, today is your day. At least in the first 15 minutes of the open.
All of them getting some love. Micron continues to fall down about 3.6 right here. Figma's up nine. Intel, how down is that? Intel is down three. Same as Micron. Axon also had a great earnings.
That's up seven. This was seen as another software name as well, huh?
It's pretty incredible to see. Yeah, not a nice day for the semi, but again, the semis have had a lot of nice days, right? So, can't complain that Intel's down from 115 to 109. But see, this is this is what happens, right? Like people who bought it at 115 yesterday are probably annoyed thinking the semis would just keep running and it's a one day break. It might end up going to 115 by the end of the day. If this thing starts having multiple red days, that's where you start to get the momentum that dies out. And and the semis just haven't had that since the ceasefire. They have not had multiple red days. I mean, every single day it's at least one part of the stack ended up going green. The software names have had multiple red days, which is why I think people said, "Screw it.
I'm done with software. I'm going to semies." If that actually flips, which I'm skeptical that that easily flips, but obviously the strength in semis means that, you know, they could take a break, then that might get some people to sell out of their their semiconductor names.
ESTs not holding the pump.
Not holding the pump.
Yeah, you do have the Cerebris IPO coming up as well, which is also going to be a tailwind for a bunch of the chip names. Uh, ARM, let's talk about that real quick. It was again relatively relatively basic quarter. So, ARM is trading at 220 times earnings, 45 times 2026 revenue. They grew 20%. Not massive growth. The core royalty business, which is really how ARM makes their money from all these patents, slowed from 27% to 11% last quarter. The operating margin fell from 33% to 29.4%. 4% and then the only kind of core argument they made is around agentic AIs for CPUs but they said that they are demand or they're supply constraint not demand constraint the problem is if a lot of other companies like a Qualcomm Intel AMD etc if everyone starts saying we're going to build all these crazy CPUs does it start to kind of dilute the entire thesis around CPUs in terms of the amount of demand supply and balance that there is um and so the quarter itself was really not super impressive but the stock also has had a massive year already. So, it's not crazy to see it down 7%.
But he did not pump the way Lisa Sue did the CPU narrative.
Even as you're listening to the call, you know, there's not that much of an emphasis that like you have to really understand ARM architecture if you want to be ready for the CPU revolution. AOI down 9%.
Down 9%.
Luminum and coherent also going down as well.
as that's red.
Figma still getting a pump. Spy.
Spy. Are we green? Spy is about to go red.
Holla says, "Apparently, American Airlines blocks YouTube now. It won't let me see the stream. And the only thing that it plays on Sling is commercials. I have to monitor the chat for updates." That's crazy that it'll show you the chat, but it won't show you the stream. American Airlines needs Starlink.
because United has started to do very well with Starlink.
Uh are you adding any software names? I mean look the software names that I have added on the dip are pounder and Oracle.
Um and you know Pounder 123, 124, Oracle 13, 160.
I think the only other software names that are super super attractive. I mean all of them you could say are technically attractive but an app loving to me is attractive. A Reddit's attractive. uh a service now still at these levels, you know, given everything that Jensen has been saying about them, given their guidance for 2030 is attractive.
Um, and the other, you know, major one that's attractive at the end of the day is Microsoft. Even though that's not necessarily a software name, but if you don't want to pick and you just believe in the rotation, IGV is still down 15% year to date. IGV has it crosses 91. I know a lot of people have picked Service Now and I I do not hate that pick at all. So you know if the softwares can have another couple good months if not good weeks we could flip green on software completely and that would have Microsoft probably back to 450 pounder back to 150 Oracle well above 200 service now probably to 110.
Zeta is again I just I never think of Zeta as a software company. It's such a small company but yes Zeta is software.
The problem is it gets classified as software in the sell-off.
But this is another software company growing 50%. That just has not been able to catch the bid because all the liquidity has been going to the semis.
All the cyber security names obviously also are your uh software adjacent in cyber security.
And bas based on this new mythos model, it seems kind of obvious why we're going to need more and more cyber security.
Micron getting a recovery 640 to 655.
Now here's the test today. Here's the test.
Does Micron flip green and at the same time does software flip red? Because if that happens, it will actually be hilarious. I I kind of want to see that happen just to prove that this is what's happening. I want to see Micron go up another 10 bucks, flip green, IGV at this moment is what 91. If IGV goes down to 89, I mean it would be hilarious because then we know how this market is being controlled in the context of semis and software. Sandis down four.
Sandis down four here.
Um, EU agreement EU agreement on US trade deal within reach says top lawmaker Trump did have those new tariffs on their cars the other day.
Oh, Trump just tweeted a very crazy picture.
Oh my.
Oh my.
Okay.
Well, you tweet this. Okay. So, the caption is a highly accurate depiction of sleepy Joe Biden administration. Tremendous damage done, but we're back.
That is Joe Biden sleeping. Obama with the autopen.
Hillary Clinton ice cream and then I think that's his son snorting a line of coke.
That's well that's kind of you know you could tell that Trump is definitely feeling energized and emboldened by the progress of this market and the economy for him to tweet stuff like that. Is that real? That is indeed real.
You know, the last time he said the stock market is at all-time highs, we ended up topping S&P 7,000. That was back in January. So, you had a lot of people a little afraid last night that he once again said the S&P is at all time highs. Hopefully, that is not a top signal, but uh he is pretty exuberant about where the S&P is going. 73378 S&P is red. Pictures like that is why we need more memory. Oh my goodness.
Everyone can take the craziest example of AI and just be like that is why we need more high bandwidth memory or we need more co-ackage optics and it's true because technically that's why okay crowd strike some red candles forinet red candle zscaler red candle palunteer small red candle service now as well 95 to 937 red candle Microsoft red candle the green candles are on none other than Micron I think this thesis is correct, folks.
I'm starting to get convinced. You can either have semis or have software. You cannot have both.
You just can't have both at this point.
I mean, look at that. Look at that green candle on Micron breaking out to 660 as Microsoft tops out potentially at 425.
It's pretty incredible. Blackberry, that's down. Rocket Lab, that's down too. Reddit.
Reddit had a great earnings. I mean, this is kind of surprising that the street's really taking it down from 175.
But if they're not going to give app 11 the bid, I guess they're not going to give right at the bid. App 462 as we're seeing this. Hi, that is also still green 42%.
Uh, Shy Guy, thanks for the super chat.
In my opinion, institutions are buying back into software, retail buying into memory semis, institutions are using retail as exit liquidity. I have heard that theory over the past couple days.
I'm not going to say that theory is wrong uh because we do have a lot of the data from the hedge funds that they are exiting a lot of their semiconductor positioning. We also have a lot of data that retail is piling into DRAM. Oh, the stat on DRAM yesterday was crazy. I got to pull this up. So, I don't think that theory is crazy, but at the end of the day, we are going to find out um I think over the next month or two like if Micron gets up to the 750s, if Sandis gets up to the 1600s, then maybe that is more institutional exposure than not.
But yeah, if you start to see those stocks fizzle out a bit, Micron Basically about to go green right here as software starts going down, then uh maybe it's not just retail.
But that that theory has been put out there over the past couple days that retail is buying the the bags of the institutional guys and they're heading out and and it's not just institutional guys. I've seen multiple people at least on X that have been early Micron or early some of the semiconductor names and I mean this one guy, he was super early to Micron. tweeted like this sarcastic tweet that people took seriously that like you know Micron's going to go to 5 trillion or whatever like he just had all this bullish stuff posted on Micron and all the comments were like agreeing with him. So then he quote tweeted that tweet yesterday and said I am literally selling all my memory. I did this as a joke to see how many people would agree with me and the fact that I was being sarcastic and I had all these bullish statements about memory and bottleneck supply chains for AI but everyone in the comments agreed with me. The post had like two million views. He said that's my signal to be out. Now again he could be wrong there because maybe agreeing with that sentiment is uh consistent with the earnings growth but you are seeing more people be a little bit more cautious about how much exuberance is there. Celsius 5% Nvidia we're getting a pump finally 209 20 on Mr. Nvidia. Can we break 210 and then 215 which is where we were at just a week ago which will be nice to see. Uh the stats on memory first of all South Korea is now the world's seventh largest equity market. Uh it is overtaking Canada. It's 4.59 trillion. SK Heinix and Samsung have more than doubled this year. Also take a look at this. Micron, Intel and Sandis call volume is more than double the S&P 500.
So yesterday, single single name calls on Micron, SanDisk, and Intel have more than doubled all the calls on the S&P 500. So obviously you got a lot more people buying call options there. And then DRAM more volume yesterday than Walmart, Chevron, Robin Hood, and Boeing. $2.2 billion in volume, up 75% in a month with 3.7 billion in AUM.
So the buyers are there. The buyers are there for memory. The question is going to be, you know, how long can the memory momentum last? Pounder getting a little bit more of a bid. 13842, that's up three and a half. Zeta up a little bit.
Microsoft trying to get a bigger bid. Was it retail going to DM? DM, you know, those types of ETFs kind of uh tend to attract retail. So, we don't know for sure, but yeah, I would say the DRAMs of the world. I mean there those roundhill investments are built for retail to be honest especially given the expense ratio because a lot of institutions just wouldn't pay that much for that meta 622 so yeah you can make that argument dualingo 107 that's also slightly green Tesla we pass 415 412 412 on Tesla 10ear is not really moving down as much as we need it to be 10ear is are we at 4.3 4.338 so it's still up from where it was yesterday that's up another 12% today $25 billion company as that one joins the party into this AI sector amid if all the money goes into the ETF do they have more money to buy the shares to send the price higher well the ETF is just going to be allocating the capital that they get to buy shares at the price that they're priced at that time um which yeah Theoretically, if there's more people investing in the ETF, then, you know, there's more of a bid on those memory names. But if there's also people at the same time selling the memory names, then uh the ETF is just buying those prices at spot prices. They're not really pushing it up higher. Same similar to the Bitcoin ETF, right? The ETF can get inflows, but if Bitcoin's price is down, then the inflows might not match enough of like a supply demand imbalance to really get a move in Bitcoin's price, which is, you know, basically what we've seen with IBIT over the past year at this point. IBIT also, that's down 1.26%. 26%.
On the day, which is why Hood also is going down. Apple 290 all-time highs for Mr. Apple 290.80.
290.80 as that continues to hit alltime highs.
That's pretty cool. It's nice to see Apple It's a big part of the S&P. 7%.
7% to get there. What do you think about Iren's earnings today? Iron has announced a bunch of different stuff that seems bullish, but um you know, they need a deal. So, I wonder if it's good news before they have an earnings, which is not that good, or if it's good news leading up to a good earnings.
I honestly have no idea, but we're going to find out today. RXT 75%.
still going up 75%.
Poet, did we get a move right there as well? Poet, again, this one, a lot of people are getting more excited about uh Photonix in general, and this one has not moved.
Now, again, they don't have a lot of contracts to be able to get people excited for it to move. They don't have any major hyperscaler deals or anything like that, but people might be taking a shot for the hell of it if they end up getting it. Intel starting to go green, but still red. US March construction spending rose 6% month overmonth street wanted 2 that is a beat and that is indicative of capex that is indicative of capex wow construction spending6% month overmonth over2 expected a lot more jobs in capex is down 25% okay someone tell me why I know so many of you are bullish on amx Um, I don't understand this company that well. They had a beat in Q1. They missed EPS slightly. 500 million in defense orders.
Why is it getting hit that? There's this is batteries, right? If I'm not wrong, this is batteries.
I believe it is ultra high energy density lithium ion batteries using proprietary 100% silicon anode technology. Maybe this one is worth looking at. We know battery is going to be really important. I don't know why it's down 25, but uh probably worth taking a look at.
Maybe this is an opportunity here. Oh, well year to date it was up freaking 100%. So that explained, dude, so many of these names and a lot of them Jason was talking about them yesterday. A lot of them recover. Even Celestica was down so much after being up so much. Same thing with Rambis. They're starting to recover.
Wouldn't surprise me if there's not a thesis breaker in AMPS that it it recovers.
which theoretically would mean this is your your opportunity. They had dilution. Okay, if it's dilution is the reason why they're down, that actually is a better reason for the stock to be down than the actual earnings.
Uh Chris, thanks for the super chat. Can Iran can Iran announce or Iran announce that are in dis that they're in discussions for deals? Probably not. I mean, usually they have to announce when a deal is officially done. So, I would imagine they wouldn't announce where they're in discussions or anything unless it's like a formal SEC document.
Meta getting another pump 624, but you know, hopefully tonight they actually announce some stuff. GameStop is also down 2%. Honest is making a move 17%. All right, someone's buying it today.
Gross margins and guidance up. Revenue growth down 20%. Streets up. Uh, Whirlpool, we didn't talk about that.
That was a pretty ugly earnings yesterday. That's down 12% right here.
CFO says appliance demand hasn't been this low since the great financial crisis.
Um, which is kind of crazy. Now, obviously, their numbers were horrible.
They missed across the entire board, but and the tariffs have, you know, not been the best for them, but it seems like it's more of an issue around pure demand. They said, "We acted decisively to address pricing and cost in the face of rapid deterioration in macroeconomic conditions, but organic net sales were down 6.1% year-over-year and then overall revenue growth down 9.6% yearover-year.
One could argue that because the housing freeze uh is in place in terms of mortgage rates not coming down that people aren't buying new homes and if they're not buying new homes, they don't have to buy washers and dryers and fridges and all that stuff as easily.
And maybe people aren't upgrading uh to those as much anymore either.
consumer could be strapped for cash would say, "I'd rather have my 10-year-old fridge even if it doesn't have a touchcreen on it, you know, and I think that could be the reason for the lack of demand right there." Poet ended up going red. Tesla's still green.
Nvidia almost 211.
Almost 211. Oscar, is that getting us a bid? Oscar, that's up 20. They had a great earnings as well.
Cloud says, "I literally just bought a Whirlpool fridge yesterday." Well, they need a lot more of you to buy these freaking fridges.
A lot more. Yeah. New fridge or Micron.
Exactly. New fridge or micron. 661 on Micron. Micron's about to flip green.
Micron is about to flip green. Crowd Strike 498. Figma 20.8. Meta at 622.
PaloAlto still up eight. VG should be dumping.
Theoretically, it's actually a good sign for long stocks if some of these oil hedges are going down, but that one's down six. Oil's down at 90.
RXT, is anyone in this name? I mean, this thing 85%. It was a sub $500 million company yesterday.
They um they reported a deal with Nvidia today.
and multicloud hybrid cloud solutions that are powering cloud environments was enough on the revenue growth with AMD on the partnership to get this thing to pump. And again, it's easy when it's a $500 million company to make a smaller to make a bigger move. We saw that with OSS yesterday, which today still flat, but there you go. That's green.
I bought it when you mentioned it. I wasn't missing old birds 2.0. Where is birds?
Down 2%. Well, Rackspace, a deal with AMD seems a lot more legit than Birds.
Um, this has been that type of market.
These smaller smaller names can go up 70 to 80% in a day if they announce anything that has I mean even Sterling Infrastructure, which is not a super small name, that's down 5%. That was a 45% in a day. We're talking about 10-15 billion dollars added to market cap just because of good growth in the context of uh of data centers.
VCX is that still running? People are still buying exposure to anthropic. I would imagine VCX. Yeah, 15%. Now it topped out at 570 a while ago.
Um it's up 15% today. This is again this is implying anthropic at a I think at this level around 2.3 trillion market cap from the math we did last time at 570 it was closer to uh like 5.4 trillion market cap so it is paying a premium but maybe people don't don't care. So 1639 1639 AOI still down seven.
Still down seven. Google launched the $100 Fitbit Air with no screen looking to take on Whoop in a growing fitness brand category. You know, given Tanner is such an Android fan, he he might need to switch from Whoop to Google's Fitbit here. Let's see what we got going on.
Apple continuing all-time highs and Nvidia, Nvidian Apple leading the way. I think we might be headed back to 212 on Mr. Nvida as Jason would call it. Data Dog also massive massive move up 30%. That's helping the software names even though look at Micron dude. It's about to go green. 50 cents away from flipping green.
50 cents away.
software red but not I mean software getting red candles but not red on the day which is nice to see because if that's the case maybe software and semis can both kumbaya and pump together applovening that just flipped green micron very close to flipping greenisk not green it's actually down a bit more 4% if everything starts going green then it's less of a rotation and it's way more of money coming off the sidelines, right?
Like real net new capital coming into the market and just buying up anything, which I would imagine is bullish because then the market doesn't have to choose between certain names. ARM down eight.
ARM down eight. AMD is also still down right here.
Microsoft up 3% on the day. you're most on Microsoft.
I mean, if SMH and IGV are officially going uh green together, to be honest, everyone finally gets to eat instead of one or the other. SMH almost green. IGV still holding on to a 4%. Again, I think Data Dog really helped SMH or IGV today.
Love and impounder could do nothing for IGV.
Uh but Snowflake, Data Dog helping get out more. And then service now as well up 6%.
So if we see Apple 300 that puts it at a market cap of let's do the math right here um 4 uh 5 trillion basically.
Micron did we flip green? We have flipped green. There you go.
So, it's like every morning Micron gives you a $30 dip and then it moves up.
Apple will be at four and a half and then Nvidia has clearly ran away from Google in terms of market cap. Nvidia right there 5.15.
The GooGs stuck at 4.8.
BTC still flat.
Yes, at the same time, Sofi cannot catch bid.
Fintech doesn't come to the party even if software does. Microsoft 424.
It's kind of weird though. Micron Flip Green and Sandis didn't. So, I don't know. Maybe you're seeing a little divergence in those two names in particular. Maybe some people just think Microsoft or Micron's a less expensive stock because it's uh like $600 versus $1,300. Maybe that's the reason.
But you are still still green on Micron. Honest up 18.
Yeah. Again, guidance was good for honest. Revenue growth was not, but maybe the street didn't care. This is not a company that might be judged on revenue more than it's judged on their ability to increase the guy.
Microsoft at 424. Where are the uh earnings from yesterday? Let's take a recap of those. Chime is down nine.
Beyond Meat's down 14. Uh, Arms down eight. Snapchat's up one. Snapchat once again unprofitable. Apploven's up one.
Door Dash up three. Door Dash lost the entire pump. NQ lost the entire pump.
Forets's up 23. They deserve it. Kratos down four. Symbotic down six. Coherent down five. Beyond Meat down 14.
Uh, Chime down nine. Fastly just getting wrecked today. 37. That's down. And then OQ is also down three. arm down seven as well.
Okay, so the majority of these names are red, but some of them still green. Uh, again, position sizing in a lot of these, as Jason talked about yesterday, was super important. If some of them are small trades, then it really doesn't hurt. Like a Fastly, when it gets hit 37% on the day, if you full ported it, obviously it hurts a lot more. If you full ported a quart forinet, it doesn't hurt because you're up 23%. But you would have to pick the right stock. And again, the market's being a little picky here. Some of these names get love, some of these names don't.
And I think one thing that Jason is so spot on on is like what is the deal that you announce, right? Like Aastly in their deck, they had like Dualingo as one of their major new customers, which is just not something to get excited about. RTX announces AMD today. Boom.
stocks up a lot, right? Or RXT, I should say.
So these companies putting up Corning, right, with Nvidia, I mean, boom, that's big for Corning, Nvidia 213.
So I think the and you know, that's the thesis with the NeoCloud as well. The types of companies you announce deals with kind of dictate how much the market perceives your adjacency towards AI.
Iran back to going green 61.
And you either have those deals or you don't. Feds hammock Iran conflict could affect both sides of central bank's mandate. Raising prices are affecting consumer spending capacity.
Okay.
Fed's hammock says Fed should keep a neutral policy stance due to uncertainty. Fed's hammock.
Um there is significant uncertainty in the economic forecast. The US just issued new Cuba related sanctions.
Okay.
I wonder if Cuba actually is next. Trump has been teasing. But you got one of the Fed presidents basically saying inflation is still a concern.
And I guess we're going to see if that ends up continuing to be the prevailing issue for the Fed and especially for Kevin Worsh. Apple 290. A little bit of a red candle from 291, but still up.
Still a pound here. Are we going back to 140? She's trying.
She's really trying here.
138.994. Again, software helping out today with that. Arista just gotten wrecked since yesterday. Again, some of these plays, even if they're AI adjacent, they just might not work. Not going to get all of them to work. Arista is an example of one of them that just didn't work. Symbiotic down six. Well, what happened to AR? So again, we talked about it. Gross margins were down, revenue was very lackluster, and then they didn't pump CPUs, not in the way that they needed to.
SMCI, look at that. 34. This thing was 19 a few weeks ago. It was 28 before the print.
Gross margins doubling year-over-year for SMCI. Still not the best, but good enough to see those get the move.
Salesforce also, it's been a while since you had a nice four and a half% day on Salesforce. As that goes green, we're going to see if Service Now can continue matching that.
Um, oh, we had the ARM CEO on just a couple minutes ago. Let's see him talking and explaining the CPU stuff as well.
>> Are you able to make two though?
>> Yeah, it's a it's an important point because, you know, first off, you said, can we get the supply in the time that we need? Uh, this is not perishable demand. uh to be to be clear this is demand that is uh firm uh sustaining and very very robust. Agentic AI puts a huge amount of pressure on the CPU to do all the work around orchestration, scheduling, management of these agents, that's only the work the CPU can do. So uh while we are in the process of securing supply for that additional demand, the demand's not going away. I'm confident we'll get that supply and I'm also very confident the demand is going to continue. The other thing we reinforced, Jim, was the fact that we talked about a $15 billion target by our fiscal 31. We are well on track to achieve that. We have the line of sight around that. So, I'm very confident we'll be able to do the things we need to to get that number.
>> And we want to put things in perspective. It's been 35 years that ARM has been working in the sector. We think about AMD and how they challenge Intel, but in many ways, the actual product that you make or that you license is superior on multiple different categories. Can you explain why ARM has got the big share?
>> It starts with the fact that we are the most efficient CPU ever invented. Uh we were born from mobile phones. We have a very very large market share in smartphones as you know. Smartphones are all about high performance at low power.
We extended that to the data center a number of years ago and the very first customer we had that was the proof point for that was Amazon. Amazon has a chip called Graviton. They now run on Graviton 5. five generations. Uh all of that gives them essentially almost equal to better performance at half the power.
Amazon would not do five generations of ARM CPUs if it was not a a fantastic platform. We've now seen it take off with Google with Axion. We've seen it with Microsoft and of course Nvidia. So yes, the ARM AGI product ARM in the data center is not new and we have seen a huge growth path really driven by this power efficiency. And then when you think about all these growth in data centers, you know, gigawatt type data centers, power efficiency is everything and the savings that you can get using the ARMbased solution is quite significant.
>> Uh Renee.
>> All right, Renee trying to prove they are the greatest CPU uh company that's out there. I mean, Street definitely doesn't think they are given the stock price reaction, but it's also up a lot year to date. Glass half full. Thanks for the super chat. admit we know Tom Le's prediction for the rest of the year. I would like to know what is your prediction. I do not know if we easily see a 20% draw down the way Tom Lee is saying it terms of S&P 500 target. It's obviously always hard to make a target, but if we keep rallying the way we're rallying, 8,000 is just not crazy to imag. It's only six 7% away from here. So, it's not one of those things that is uh unbelievable to imagine if the earnings growth matches up with it. do think we've run really fast really quickly and so the idea that we get a pullback I it would not surprise me. I don't think it would surprise anybody. I just don't know if it's a 15 to 20% pullback like Tom is saying and he's using his history to guide that argument. I can understand 5 to 10 15 to 20 if we couldn't go down 10%. I mean we literally went down 8.7%.
We didn't even go down 10% during the Iran war when oil was 120. I don't really know what's the catalyst that caused it to to happen again. So no I would imagine 8,000's possible. I think I'm more in the camp around 770 7800 as a base case, but I just don't see that 20% draw down that easily. Now, the IPOs I think are definitely a big thing to think about. The SpaceX anthropic opening IPO if that happens this year. I wonder a where the liquidity comes from, b how much euphoria is built into those IPOs and you know that could also be something that we have to think about as we get into the end of the year. Uh but again maybe the euphoria is worth it if anthropic keeps growing $12 billion of revenue which is more than most software companies fullear revenues combined every month and that I think could also get the market to buy up those stocks. Noia getting dipped 4% lost 13 lost 13 as that one's down. Oh there was an IPO yesterday by the way. Did anyone see this? Rare Earth Americas. that's up eight today. Um, this was a IPO around rare earths and you've got the Trump administration that's somewhat involved in this. I don't think they have a a stake in it, but they are connected to it as rare earths start to be seen as another bottleneck that is out there as well. Nabius 192 that is also starting to recover. It was down at 185 now it's down 1%. RVI is pumping. Why? I don't know. I would imagine you know OpenAI there's a lot of these perpetual futures platforms where you can track the price of these um startups or these private companies. OpenAI is one of them. So RVI could be getting pegged to the derivative prices in the essentially crypto markets because the crypto technology is what's creating this and the hyperlquids of the world that determine if openi is worth 10% or more every other day what people are willing to pay for it. Um anthropic right now at about 1.2 trillion in the private markets micron 680 and that could be getting RBI to pump if their private names go green.
Have you heard about the hunter virus or the hivirus? Yes, I have. Um, I don't know enough about it to meaningfully discuss it. Uh, the World Health Organization put out an update.
They said they're monitoring the situation. There's been eight cases.
These are essentially viruses that are in rats, if I'm not wrong. And on a cruise ship a week ago, a few people got infected. And there's, I think, six to eight breakouts in the United States that have happened so far.
Having said that, I don't know enough about it and I don't think it's going to get enough media coverage until there's a like meaningful chance that people are afraid that it would get a breakout.
Now, this thing was weird yesterday.
This guy from 2022 tweeted this. This a real tweet. It's not fake. June 11, 2022. 2023, Corona ended 2026 virus. And people have been going crazy. So my response was, "Okay, do you also know what the next SanDisk is?" He didn't give me a response. But yeah, this tweet has been going super viral because people are just like, "How the hell did did someone say that?" So I don't know. Obviously, the first gut reaction people have is like, "Oh my goodness, global pandemic. Do we have to deal with that again?" I think that's a little bit too much panic right now uh until you actually meaningfully get any level of real evidence that this is happening.
So, we're not there yet at that level and I don't think we're going to be there. People don't really know yet if it's transmittable in the way that CO was. Micron 682.
Why is that tweet viral? Because it's from 2022 and the guy's predicting that in 2026 there will be something called antivirus, right? So, it's like how did someone know that is the question.
Nvidia 21340.
2134. Wow. AMD flips.
AMD flips green.
She flips green.
That's uh actually nice to see.
All your memory names flipping green except Sandis. Noia red. Blackberry as well kind of flipping green. It was red.
Now it's a little bit above six pounds.
Some red candles back down to 137.
back down to 137. It's photoshopped.
It's a literal tweet. You can click on the tweet from an account from four years ago.
I will say it. I mean, if we get another global pandemic, I don't I don't even want to imagine what's going to happen.
I am very doubtful we will. Um, you know, when I think back on COVID, it was just absolutely crazy. I was leaving. I mean, my Rucker said, "You guys have an extended spring break. Instead of one week, it was two weeks." And then they were like, "Yeah, you never have to come back again." And so, it was just crazy.
Like, we didn't have a real graduation.
Everything was virtual.
So, I can't imagine going through that again. I don't even know if people would be willing to uh engage in lockdowns again. And, you know, it would be definitely one of those things that is highly debated. I do think the markets would pump because once again we will probably print trillions and trillions of dollars.
Now we have earnings growth. Well, that earnings growth is probably going to dissipate because, you know, if you have some crazy global pandemic. But the point is, you're going to have so much excess liquidity that I definitely won't make the same mistake twice of paying off some loans in 2020 when I should have immediately put that into the market, not realizing the Fed was about to inject seven trillion dollars of liquidity.
Now, will Wars do that? I don't know.
Wars would probably try his hardest not to do that, but he might have to capitulate if that happens. Kratos, that's down five.
Kratos is down five.
Yeah, crypto would go crazy. I agree. I mean, there's already a meme coin for antivirus. It's up like 2,000% as of last night. So, the Salana Dens officially are monetizing on this.
Um, Nabius 19337. We'll have Jose on in a couple minutes. We'll get all of his thoughts on AI and AMD.
Um, and see what he's thinks about this.
Again, Lisa Sue, the biggest thing that I think she made clear on that call was that the CPU to GPU ratio is becoming one:1.
And if it becomes more than 1:1, then we're going to need more and more CPUs, which is really important. I ran at 61.
Are you buying more fastly? No. Again, this was a very small speculative trade position for me. So, at this point, average is 24. Just leave it. And I have to go through the quarter, too, and see if there's anything there. Jason also I mean, Jason really likes this one. He had calls on this. Um, but he also didn't love the guidance.
And so, you know, there's some names you don't full port or size up a heavy position if you're interested in them.
Some names that are just small and so when they fall, because inevitably names will fall, you don't really feel the pain of it.
You know, there's other names like a Palunteer when that falls that hurts pretty badly.
But this is obviously, I think, a much more high quality software name.
Salesforce almost 190 as it's trying to make its bid up and then Micron almost 680. Would you be a buyer of GameStop at these levels? I think I'd only be a buyer of GameStop as a trade at these levels on Momentum. I mean, Ryan Cohen got banned from eBay yesterday after he made an eBay account and he tried to sell stuff on eBay and then eBay suspended him from eBay. And now he's talking a lot of [ __ ] about eBay. He's like, "No one even works there. They don't buy back their stock." yada. like he's putting out a lot of tweets to try to compel people to realize eBay should be acquired, which is probably why eBay suspended him. But the acquisition I feel like could be bullish in the context of a short-term momentum because I don't think at least right now that that acquisition would mean GameStop goes to the moon. Like they would have a lot of operational stuff to prove to make that acquisition make sense. I wonder if Michael Bur gets back in though because he got out. But if the acquisition happens, maybe he says, "You know what? I actually like it." Apple 290.7.
290.7.
What is he selling on eBay? He's literally selling video games.
Ironically, Nabius goes green. These dips aren't lasting longer than an hour on the semi-names. They're just not.
I mean, you think it's a dip and it's it just ends up I mean, even SanDisk, it's getting ready to flip. It was down four, now it's down 1.8.
Ethereum, is that still down? Ethereum is down 38 as well.
Corore is also still red but went green.
Reuters, Iran and Washington have lowered ambitions for reaching a comprehensive settlement on the nuclear program and the fate of highlyenriched uranium.
Yeah, that's obvious. Trump, I don't think Trump cares anymore. I think Trump wants to get to the midterms and keep the economy pumping. I think he will settle. He will definitely frame it as a massive deal, but I think he's going to settle for whatever he can get and just move on.
And maybe that'll be the end of this. If that is correct, I mean, if they really care about getting the best nuclear deal they can, then Iran's just not going to agree. They're going to be in a stalemate again for the coming months.
So, at some point, both sides are going to have to agree.
Broadcom 423.
Stock talk will be on at 11. Jose will be on in about 2 minutes.
Oil continues to go down 90.3. Dude, even with some of these headlines, oil's down. Are the Q's actually at 700? Oh my goodness.
I feel like I didn't even realize 700 was close.
Like I feel like this was like 670 or 650, which it probably was last week.
Yeah, it was. That's crazy, dude. 700 on the NASDAQ.
S&P as well, 700. My goodness.
I didn't even realize SE a seven handle was that close.
Why is Target down 4%? I do not know.
They didn't have earnings.
The targets getting hit here.
Uh, at what point is not having a pullback not healthy? This market is becoming annoying.
I I saw a tweet yesterday that I think uh kind of sums up the sentiment. If you're in semis, you're wondering when to trim.
If you're not in semis, you're wondering when to get in. And so, it's like this duality of, okay, I'm overleveraged on Micron. I need to take profits. Um, and then there's this I'm not in Micron, I need to get in, which you are looking for an entry, but that entry is like 30 bucks away. Even Jason yesterday, he said his entry on Micron will be like 570.
So, you need a $100 pullback, which is not easy to get. It's more than 10%.
And you might not have buyers willing to give you that pullback unless there's a catalyst that gets you there.
I don't think pullbacks necessarily have to happen to prove the market's healthy.
Pullbacks obviously are very healthy.
But we also were depressed for two months straight. Like two months straight it was just blood every other day. And I say every other day because we had one day in between of a little recovery and then the next day we went red.
So now it's green every other day.
Technically every day to be honest.
And maybe that tops out at some point.
But I feel like there also has to be a catalyst together. But I can understand the concerns of like, hey, it's too much too quick. Like, I get it. Like, it it feels like that, but maybe it doesn't necessarily have to stop as easily. And again, for names that go up and Nvidia went from 218 to 195, now back to 212.
I guess those were your opportunities.
I mean, I don't think we deserve this rally. I I think the earnings growth is enough to say you deserve it.
Like again we talked about all the reasons why the rally happening in the midst of oil and the tenure and Japanese bond yields and the carry trade and all that and the war obviously has been hard to fathom which for everyone I think that's been the case but I think the earnings are the simple reason why the market deserves to go up.
Now the velocity of the increase can be in question but the earnings themselves I think are a very simple reason doesn't have to be over complicated.
Also we went through hell for two months dude. Like we went through literal it was not fun waking up every morning and be like wow market's red again.
Here's why. Let's analyze every syllable that Trump and Iran are speaking to try to dissect why the market is red. ARM down 7%.
By the way, do you guys know who's leading the prediction markets to be the um the president in 2028?
It's this guy who answered this question yesterday at the press briefing >> at a time such as this.
>> My hope for America. And how do you personally deal with that?
>> Yeah, look, I mean, my hope for America is what it's always been. I think it's the hope I hope we all share. We want it to continue to be the place where anyone from anywhere can achieve anything, where you're not limited by the circumstances of your birth, by the color of your skin, by your ethnicity, but frankly, it's a place where you are able to overcome challenges and achieve your full potential. I think that should be the goal of every country in the world, frankly. But I think in the US, we're not perfect. Our history is not one of perfection, but it's still better than anybody else's history. and ours is a story of perpetual improvement. Each generation has left the next generation of Americans freer, more prosperous, safer and that is our goal as well. But it is a unique and exceptional country and as we come upon this 250 year anniversary, I think we have a lot to learn and be proud of in our history, it is one of perpetual and continuous improvement where each generation has done its part to bring us closer to fulfilling the vision that the founders of this country had upon its founding.
So >> pretty damn good answer. is now number one to potentially be the president in 2028.
Let's bring someone on to the show that also has been giving us some good answers every time we had questions around the semiconductor revolution.
Ladies and gentlemen, on a beautiful Thursday morning, Jose, >> good morning. Good morning. How's it going, man?
>> Are you still on vacation or are you home?
>> No, no, I'm back on I'm back home. Back on work mode, grind mode. if you guys believe that.
>> Well, you were grinding. You did AMD earnings with us even on vacation. So, you know, you were grinding. Um, >> dude, I before we get into the specific stocks, what what is your take on just you cover this sector literally for a living. I mean, for the past five years, you have dedicated your channel to the semiconductors. How have you felt about SMH being up 50% over the past five months?
>> Uh, I mean, just exciting. It's just an exciting time for for the AI ecosystem.
Uh I mean, it's happy. Uh I'm just overall happy, right? I mean, uh, ju just one of my things is if you don't even own semiconductor stocks, I've always pushed on a semiconductor ETF, there's plenty of of of information that showcases the semiconductor ETF has outperformed the Q's and and and and um the S&P 500 and a lot of indexes um just because this is a industry that if human innovation continues, semiconductors are going to lead that race. Uh, so uh pretty exciting, right? I'm I'm happy.
Obviously, it's not um a straight line like you mentioned. Um there are some months where it's like, "Oh man, I got to post another video. I got to do another video." And it's like the comments are are going to hate it, right? Because it's like the the market just sucks sometimes. But um that that's that's that's the game we're in, right?
It's it's sometimes it's extremely bad.
Uh but as long as we keep grinding it out, um we'll be able to enjoy in and days like we've seen this past week alone. AMD at 420 is crazy. Nvidia up 2% last time I checked is crazy, right? So, um, yeah, pretty good.
>> Okay, so let's get into AMD. Um, why do you think this is getting the rerating that it's getting? Do you think it's justified? And I mean, are you a buyer at these levels or do you think people who aren't in the AMD story should feel the riskreward at 420 is is worth it?
>> Yeah. So, I'm definitely not a buyer at 420. Um but mainly again we this is a company uh we've been buying over time.
Um I've been buying over time. So so it's like I I'm happy with my position sizing. It's more about allocation. If it was if I didn't have let's say I didn't have an position it would be very small dollar cost average. I mean I do believe the future for AMD is a trillion dollar company or plus. I just don't expect it to be a straight line, right?
I don't expect it to be a straight line.
Um, in this AI cycle, there's so many uh so much volatility based on news uh based on rumors uh that could create a downtrend. So, it's more like dollar cost average until things improve or until we get like a a better uh a random story to to really go a little bit more heavy on. Um, now in regards to earnings, I think there were two things that really jumped out to analysts. Um, the first is the confirmation. Um, and and and am I lagging by any chance or is everything okay on my end?
>> It's a little bit of a small lag like your voice going in and out a little bit, but I don't know if it's internet or >> Yeah, it's just weird because let me just turn off >> Yeah, if you want to rejoin it, that's totally fine. Yeah, let me just rejoin really quickly.
>> Okay, cool.
All right, we'll get him back in a bit.
Uh AMD slightly red on the day, but was green just for uh a second. Again, you got oil right here still taking a nice haircut, which hopefully that continues. But I think that's what's pushing some of these semi names to flip green along with Nvidia is the Daario connection.
That's crazy. That's crazy.
Okay, I think you're good.
>> Hopefully I'm better here. Um, >> so CPU confirmed it's legit basically.
>> Yeah, 100%. We've been hearing this story for the past 6 months. I think that's what we got to this week was the confirmation, right? We heard it from Lee Bhutan maybe like 3 weeks ago. Um, we've actually been hearing this CPU shortage almost five, six months already. Um we we heard it in December uh when Intel was already kind of cutting. They they they give you little hints and this is why I think for retail investors on it listening to earnings call is very very important. Um I think you get a lot of alpha even if you don't own the company. uh Intel, I think December or November, they were talking about how they were giving away client wafers or or client pretty much inventory from the client side, the consumer side, and pushing it to the data center side because they were seeing crazy demand, right? So, so these the market is going crazy right now on the CPU storage, but if you've been listening to a lot of these earnings calls, you saw it coming. You 100% saw it coming. Uh so for retail investors I I know sometimes it's like oh we don't have an edge because we don't have these crazy tools we don't have these crazy uh uh Bloomberg or whatever earnings call I think is so underappreciated. You can get a lot of information from there. Um so Lisa Sue kind of gave us more clarity on that this this quarter saying that the shortage is got longer than most expected. Uh and the other thing that I think she gave us more clarity on was the uh AI chip market for them the GPU space. uh they mentioned they they they had bigger they're they're seeing better initial reaction to their chips and probably potentially uh more multi- gigawatt deals coming in the future. Uh so she gave us two great answers about the CPU and the GPU space that I think it's like okay this is the story this is the AI story for AMD right now.
Do you believe in this CPU story like yourself? And do you think agentic inference really is what gives the level of demand for Lisa, for lip, for uh for ARM to to get a fundamental rerating like Nvidia did in 2023? Or is it kind of just the street agreeing to it, but the street doesn't know if it's really going to be the type of growth that Nvidia had three years ago? Um, I I think from where we're at right now, it's definitely a real story. I believe it. But that's the crazy thing about semiconductors and AI.
You can switch the story. Um, the story can switch or flip uh out of nowhere.
So, that's why you have to kind of keep up to date with it. Right now, we had a lot of confirmation. I mean, Amazon during their annual shareholder letter mentioned that two wanted to buy all their CPU uh for for for uh for the foreseeable future. Um and right just uh at CES uh in January kind of built up a CPUon standalone system for Nvidia to be doing something they must be seeing something. So I think there's just enough confirmation and evidence from a lot of different companies, right? It's not just Intel, it's not just AMD, but you have uh a lot of um confirmation from companies like Amazon, like Nvidia that do give the um the probability of the CPU shortage lasting a while to be extremely true.
>> Okay, let's talk ARM because they're down on the day. Uh did you go through the quarter and do you think the CEO kind of said what he needs to say about CPUs like Lisa? at least this even unfortunately I think their call was last night while I was in travels so I haven't I haven't seen much about it um but I I'll definitely do some more and if anything I'll pass some information to you that maybe you can share to your viewers uh uh later >> you arm >> I I don't own ARM no >> okay got it um >> let me just say shortage would definitely be beneficial for them because uh every kind of big player right uh Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta all have a CPU and that CPU that they've designed are is based on ARM architecture. So if like Graviton if they b buy more that's more licensing uh for uh for ARM. Um the only thing I would say is is kind of my fear with Qualcomm and ARM similarly is they both are also very focused on the consumer space CPU. So it's like is the data center side enough to push the consumer side away from them or or the headwind from the consumer side or Qualcomm the answer seems to be yes right we see the stock go up dramatically um but that's kind of like the I wouldn't say not a reason to buy but one of the things to kind of consider before buying one of the risk is like how much of the consumer space um is is is a headwind um based on the data center um tailwinds >> so that That gets into the conversation around Qualcomm, which also um has consumer CPU products. Streets now thinking it might be uh data center CPUs. Do do you think Qualcomm I mean it's up from 130. Do you think that's like a serious CPU player or this is more of a a people just hyping into it because it's the semiconductor name that hasn't run yet?
>> I mean, I wouldn't consider it like a pure yolo play, right? It's not like it's the story is definitely there. Uh Qualcomm is really good with CPUs in the consumer side. They've been doing it for a a long time. I mean, the Snapdragon on the PC has been moving along. Um and obviously on the mobile space. Uh so there's evidence that they're good and that they can produce something in the server side. So at least there's some evidence to back it up. Um I think the biggest opportunity here is the CPU shortage. um the CPU shortage if you need more CPUs you tend to look at anywhere. Uh so that becomes kind of like um that nice tailwind for Qualcomm. Um the other thing is I I don't know if many people remember when Nvidia started to let people connect their custom CPUs to Nvidia's GPUs. Qualcomm is one of those partners, right?
Qualcomm is going to make a CPU that they're going to connect with Nvidia's GPUs. They're also kind of doing their own AI GPUs. So, um, if you're going to partner up with Nvidia, right, if Nvidia is going to mention you as a partner as well, I think it also kind of gives some evidence, um, that the server CPU play is not a it's not a zero probability. I wouldn't know if I would consider it a 100 probability, but it's definitely not zero.
>> Do you think the chip rally has been too much too fast? And how do you think about buying more here? I mean, we heard Daario say they're growing 80x. Goldman says, "Agentic token compute demand could be 12xed by 2030." Obviously, these names have had a massive rally, but I'm assuming uh you know, you've been talking about this rally for five years now that it's coming. But for the people that want to continue piling in or for the people that don't even want to sell and pay the taxes and want to, you know, continue believing that this rally continues, is your assumption that this buildout is another decade long and it just means the Microns, the SanDisks, the AM cores, the Qualcomms, they have a lot more coming for them?
>> Yeah. Yeah. So, it's it's a fun place.
It's a funny place to be, right? cuz I am bullish longterm. Um, but I wouldn't be a a net buyer right now, right? If if I was a buyer, it would be like small dollar cost average positions to maybe um remove some of the FOMO if I had FOMO, right? On on on some of these names, I I I like to dollar cost average. Sometimes it helps eliminate.
Um, but I I think the AI buildout is extremely early. Some valuations might be in the short term. In the long term, I still believe in this ecosystem. So for me for one tax purposes I'm definitely not selling uh a lot of my portfolio. Um but I I would be looking more at companies like Meta. I think Meta has given us uh there are certain names that have given us opportunities to buy that can benefit from the AI chip race and the AI race in general.
>> Yeah, I would think that's fair. And again, I think the FOMO is also one of those things where, you know, people are trying to navigate it. But they're also saying these stocks go up two to three% every day, just makes it hard to continue navigating. Jose's Twitter, guys. I'm linking that right there. You guys can follow him there. Also linking his YouTube. Um, Jose, we got to talk about it. Micron Sandisk is the thesis still the same that memory is important, but just not something you can easily buy into.
>> Yeah. I I mean, for me, it's not right.
I mean I I I got into other names like Simo Silicon Motion balance up 100% in the past month or so. Um I I I talked about Riskard. It doesn't mean the stock prices I don't I it's not that I believe I'm uh stock prices will drop. It's just I don't feel comfortable putting my hard-earned money at these types of valuations, right? Because it's it's money I work hard for and and I want that the the probability of it to be successful uh a lot higher. Um but the memory story is um the the memory story is it's going to last a while, right? We see the shortage going to continue to last. Lisa Sue talked about it. Um we're going to most likely hear from about it from um Nvidia when they report earnings, but the CPU sto the memory storage the memory shortage um is going to last a while.
uh if it is going to last a while, do you think the rerating on the pees continue or do you think eventually the street just says we know it's going to last a couple years but we know it's not going to last 10 years like AMD which could last 10 years in terms of MI450s and chips beyond that. So that's why we're just not going to extend the Ford multiple on them.
I think there there has to be a rerating because these have become less cyclical due to competition, right? So I think historically they do trade at they used to trade at very low single digits, but I don't think we're going to get the rerating to like those 20s that we see a lot of big tech and semiconductor companies in. Right? So I mean for a lot of investors with Micron, even if it goes to a 4p ratio of 10, it it can still be beneficial for them, right?
right? Cuz I think the 4P is still like four. Um I just don't know if we would see the typical tech. Probably better than a memory space, but not as big as kind of the big tech space right now.
>> Corweave got earnings today. What are you expecting going into this one?
>> Um just a lot about AI buildout. Uh I want to see Capix, what they're doing with Capix active power, right? What's their new active power? Uh I think we're going to be over a gigawatt for for coreweave which is crazy. I don't think anyone is close to a gig gigawatt in the Neocloud space of active power. Um so I'm going to be listening to the call. Hopefully I'll be streaming it too.
So okay, Cororeweave you're bullish on.
Uh Nabius has obviously had a good run as well over the past couple days. This XAI anthropic news, what was your take on Elon basically giving up his excess compute? Is it bearish in any way or is it more so Grock is just not having a ton of demand and it's bullish anthropic?
>> Yeah. So for that's how I saw it. I saw it bearish Grock because if you need everybody's looking everybody's getting a lot of compute, right? Andropic has signed a lot of deals.
Why isn't Grock doing the same? It means they probably don't have the demand right now um for it. So I at the moment it does seem a lot more bearish. rock bullish um andropic um for NeoCloud players I wouldn't worried about it's just there's not enough compute to go around right uh andropic just a a massive deal with coreweave but they still need more it just showcases that even though they need more um not one player can give it all right it's is there's not enough compute >> how do you feel Jose about co-ackage optics and photonic as that has been the next big sector that's obviously taken off. AXTI, AOI, uh AITX today or AIMX. Um you're just seeing a big run in these very small sub2 billion dollar companies that gets rerated for substrates and 1.6T technology. So, how are you thinking of overall optics right now?
>> Yeah, so it's it's a it's a part worth doing research on and quick plug to the community what the chip happened. I mean, we were talking about HighAX. We did a live stream on that a few weeks ago, doing a deep dive on HighAX. Um, it's it's a market at least for the smaller players that we're doing research on on the bigger names. I I I I tend to invest in the optics space right now through Marll, which did a few acquisitions to help out their optics play. um Credo and Astera Labs are other plays that I've gone in the networking side that are also kind of um doing few acquisition to help out optics in networking space. Uh so that's where my top line uh my my my knowledge is kind of focused on right now on those names.
Um but we're doing research on those smaller names as well.
>> So you're more you also like the bigger names I would imagine because it's way safer to get a Marvel versus like a billion dollar company even if it's not going to run 200%.
>> Yeah. Yeah. And it's it's it's not like super big. Like for example, Credo and Eststerols, they were like at 20 billion. Um so it's not like I'm looking for hundred billion dollar companies.
And I don't mind sub 10 billions, right?
Like I own air test system before it was even a billy. Um we've uh we it's it's I market cap doesn't worry me too much. Um it's more of just distribution on the portfolio. I would be a lot more kind of conservative if I'm small micro cap. I tend to be a little bit more aggressive if they're about 10 billion or more. Um so in the optics space uh like I mentioned Marll Credo and Alab are ones that are doing either acquisitions or playing in this game right now.
>> Lmentum and Coherent uh they had earnings recently both down five or six% in you know Jensen invested in these these are you know 70 billion but also in the photonic space. Do you think there's something to be said about those or they've also had a a very big run?
>> I mean, I think if Jensen is investing in them, there's something to look into, right? He's uh and I think the market isn't completely pricing into them just yet. There's just so much here in the optics in in the fiber in the semiconductor um that I have I I haven't done my my due diligence on light or or or um or coherent just yet.
>> Okay, Steu, a little bit of rapid fire with Jose. If you have a ticker, put in the chat. We'll get his quick thoughts on it. I'm linking his newsletter, what the chip happened. It was really funny on the AMD call. Neil said, "Well, Jose just goes on vacation because the chip happened." So, >> that was good. Neil's a funny man.
>> It did happen, dude. SMH is up 50% this year. Like, it happened. The chip.
>> But hopefully there's more to to go. Um, all right. Some quick rapid fire. I earnings today. What are you feeling about that one?
>> I mean, just bullish overall, Neil, right? So that that's the story. They have a lot of um they made that acquisition which is interesting. Uh so they're becoming a little bit more of a AI, not just PowerShell, not just um bare metal. I think that acquisition is actually a smart move for Iran.
>> Okay. Um would you expect a deal today or no? Not on the earnings.
>> I don't know. I mean they they have a massive deal with Microsoft. I think for them it's it's better to just make sure that it gets built out and start collecting that massive revenue from them. Um but some market commentary on on hey we have more deals coming at least commentary from there I think would be would be better. Um but I mean the massive power that they need to subscribe to to Microsoft I think just focus on that showcase to your customers I can do it. I can make these massive data centers for you and be extremely easy. I think that would be the better long-term story for Iran.
>> Uh Navas thoughts on this one?
>> Um I mean we're seeing a run in the semiconductor path play right now, right? I mean Navas is up on semiconductor is up. Um again I think for a lot of these the story is there.
Um so it's they have to execute for that story.
Oracle, >> you know, Oracle is actually looking a little bit more attractive to me.
There's times when I I know Oracle was cheaper um much cheaper before. Um but during that time, other stocks were also cheaper. Now, it's a time where a lot of stocks rallied and I'm looking at at what names haven't rallied as much. I think I would put Oracle on my watch list right now.
>> Yeah. I also think I mean this is your best openi proxy to be honest outside of Microsoft >> so bullish openai definitely helps. Um you're not are you in Arista a net?
>> No defin I was going to say definitely not but no uh not for any reason. Um I know the networking side gets gets punished a lot after earnings due to um competition in the space.
>> Yeah.
>> Um >> but the company seems to deliver a lot.
they they do seem to deliver uh and earnings usually seems to punish them, but then you see a c a nice reversal on this one. So, I saw it drop. This is one on my watch list to do research on right now.
>> SMCI, I know you haven't liked it, but any faith in those earnings to get you back in?
>> Yeah, so it's the reason I don't like it is it's more just leadership, right?
It's is leadership. I always find the guy to be very sick. um which obviously they need to but um and and just the server business is not a business I'm into. Uh but with the demand of AI servers, obviously I think this is is one that can play out. If you can improve margins um and and if you can pro provide more solutions to that will help um grow margins, I think this seems like a smart play. I just don't like this that story, right?
>> What do you think the Cerebrus IPO will do to Nvidia? I think is a good question.
I think the market will punish Nvidia um in the short term thinking that it's a or market not an AND market. Um so Reapers has like a partnership with OpenAI um and they're going to see oh another competitor here against Nvidia but um Nvidia's just going to dominate.
It's it's crazy how just cuz other stocks are rallying, we think Nvidia is losing its technology innovation, and I don't think that's the case. Nvidia's is the monster.
Um, all right, last couple. DRAM, I would imagine Jose would say he's not into because it's mainly just memory names, but obviously that one's done well. Uh, the Corning deal with Nvidia yesterday. I know you know about this one, but has this one been on the watch list for a while for you? Um I I I have to look I like I mentioned yesterday unfortunately was travel day for me. So I that came out um during travel day. I haven't done some information on it. I would love to see how this is different from light and the other one it made um it made um a contract with I forget a few months ago. Um like how is this different from from the other players uh would be my first thing. Uh because it then helps me understand where some of these bottlenecks continue to lie.
You looked at Nokia at all?
>> Definitely not. Has this one turned around recently?
>> Yeah.
>> Is this an AI data center bought some of it?
>> Oh, they did. Yes, they did for for AI RAM but not RAM data center like I think it's for networking solutions. Um, yeah, I have I haven't looked at it.
>> Okay, last one. Bloom Energy.
I mean this is uh behind the meter right do they have behind the meter stuff uh pro uh solutions um I mean we're seeing that BTM stuff uh get a lot of uh the only one I own in this space is Solaris Energy uh so Solaris Energy um help helps with that that market is definitely pushing right now we're seeing a lot of these AI data centers um can't come up uh unless they have an act an outside solution outside of just the typical infrastructure. Uh so I don't know what the stock price is doing but the story is for BTMs. Um oh it's fuel cell but isn't fuel cells. I know people saying in fuel cells but I thought fuel sales was for for BTM as well. Um uh right. So so I I think um uh that story >> no 100% BTM's I'm reading right here behind the meter fuel cells are on-site electrochemical power generations. I don't know exactly what Bloom's relationship with that is, but the other reason I'm asking is just because energy is the biggest bottleneck we are hearing more and more. So I wonder if that's like a big part of how you're thinking of it or you'd rather just buy the the chip stocks inside of the data centers versus the bottlenecks.
>> You know, if I had like five more clones of me, I would be looking at all these bottlenecks because I do believe all these bottlenecks have uh opportunities, right? the the power, the behind the meter, um the optics plays, the memories plays, um all these do have a lot of opportunities. Maybe not with the core players, but there's something inside of them that many people aren't looking.
So, uh I I think that's where people should really focus on if you have time, if you enjoy learning about behind the meter, obviously it's cool to learn about Bloom Energy, but who else is there? Like, what supply chain can you benefit from there? Um who are some of the smaller names that can benefit from this? Is there a special equipment? Is there a special material that you need?
Like I I I think if you have time and enjoy it, um all these shortages has still run room to run room to run, but maybe not in the main play, right? I inside of them there there's something uh something good. So I wish I had more more I got to work on some more AI agents is is what I think I need to do.
>> I love it. Jose, thank you. What the chip happened? It should be pretty exciting uh for you right now given this is the industry that you cover day in and day out. Everyone can subscribe to that newsletter right there and we will talk to you next Thursday.
>> Take care.
>> Thanks Jose.
>> Appreciate it. Later.
All right.
Well, that was our chip discussion. Jose will basically be on every Thursday. So, Thursday is 10:30 11. We can uh expect Jose to be on Stock Talk. Just text me.
He'll be on in about 10 minutes and then we will get his take on what's going on in the broader market. Uh few picks of his that have been really starting to make a nice little move right here.
Vyavi, this is one we did a Equity Edge episode on a while ago. Obviously MCOR, a lot of people know that he pitched it on the show. Vyavi made a hell of a move on their earnings, up about 15%. OSS, just a massive, massive move yesterday, down a little bit on the day, but from 10 to 15.
Um, and a few more that I think he's looking at that we will talk about here today. Is AMD getting a dump? AMD.
All right. 2%. This one's kind of been oscillating around 400 to 415. SPY is pumping though. SPY is pumping. SPY 736 even though the semi stocks are down.
Let me pull up the heat map.
Uh, Nvidia and Apple, I guess, along with Microsoft are giving the spy the pump. Everything else going down.
SanDisk, that was down two, that is now down four. So, SanDisk tried to recover to 1400, didn't get to. Heat maps down.
Stock draft, let's pull that up.
What happened to my portfolio today on this one? 49%.
Oh, Apple. I forgot. Apple. Okay. So, if all goes well, I think we're going to we're going to win this one. Matt's at 36. Tanner's at 12. The fact that Steve's at 30 on one name is crazy. I mean, Micron just leading it. 30% is a dude, 30% is a great return. Beats the S&P.
That one name Broadcom helping, but that one name did it. And then Chris at 20.
So, right now it's Matt or it's me, Matt, Steve, Chris, and then Tanner.
that we have right here. This is kind of crazy, dude. 180% draw down, two almost 300% moves. Tesla's also helping today.
I have Tesla Hood and Pounder giving me nothing. Grab giving me a negative 17%.
Visa giving me negative8. And then Apple, which I almost traded at 47.
It's pretty wild. We will do the draft again and uh we will have some ideas.
Also, let me let me ask you guys a question because this is something that I've been thinking about over the past couple days given the nature of this massive semiconductor rally and I'm curious if people would be interested in it. So, I've been already starting to do a lot of this research on my own and I kind of want to have like a running document that's open sourced that anyone can access at any time for free. Um, would people be interested if I broke through multiple sections?
And I'll probably like color code it to make it like pretty. um every single stock that is relevant to the AI data center and chip buildout aka not just your microns we all know that but your sterling infrastructure which I found out about two days ago uh that thing is you know it went up 45% of the day I am sure there's a lot of other companies that are like sterling I don't think all those companies are going to go up 45% in the day but if we were to find literally every competitor to sterling and then put their market cap their PE their year-to-day performance and then like a two-s sentence summary of what they do and why they're relevant inside of that context and make like a gigantic file of that which again I've kind of already been working on over the past really I started on Saturday so started end of last week do do people okay I see the chat I people would like that because dude at this point it's becoming kind of obvious to me that if this revolution is going to last for way longer than we're expecting The alpha is probably not in micron anymore. Even though micron could still pump as micron goes right on the day, but the alpha is going to be in a much smaller name that is adjacent to a micron or memory. And quite frankly, it's not that original of an idea, right? The smaller names have been the ones that have been pumping this year.
It's just listing all of them out and finding them. They've been these opaque names that's been hard to discover um simply because, you know, they're they're I mean, how many people knew what sterling infrastructure? How many people even knew what Bloom Energy was?
Now, this one Chris Camilillo has talked about a while, but still this was rather under the radar when it came to fuel cell technology and so or air test systems. Yeah, I mean I know Roy was talking about this, but this was as as as Jose said sub 1 billion. Now it's three billion. Now I don't know if air test systems is something you hold on to for the next 10 years. I think this document would not be a document of investments. This document would really be a document of trades that maybe could turn into investments. I don't even know if Roy or Jose want to hold air test systems, you know, as long as they want to hold a meta. But the point is if all the money from the capex is going from meta to an air test systems right now or, you know, indirectly um then probably even knowing what those tickers are important.
Okay, cool. People like it. All right, so that'll be that'll be out on Monday.
That'll be I mean I've already started working on it. I've already got like 45 tickers to be honest and I think to be honest it's probably gonna be filled with like a 100 to 150 tickers. Again, not all those tickers are going to be fantastic companies or amazing technologies or you know important names in the semiconductor revolution but they're all adjacent to it. And I think the ones that get the most buzz we can find a way to make it interactive. Those are the ones that we spend more time doing due diligence on. And let's see if we can find a lot more of these names.
And even if we take a flyer on it, you know, you don't have to full port some of these small $500 million companies, but if you take a flyer on it and they end up reporting massive earnings and you see the trajectory of growth, then you can double down and apploven trying to go to 500. That one finally flipping green with software.
That one I think would also be kind of effective.
Is Grinder on it? No, but sniffies or whatever the new app that they announced that might be on it. Don't put Dolingo on.
Dualingo is the existential way to understand all the languages in the semiconductor ecosystem. So I don't know what you mean by not putting Dual Link on this.
All right, cool. That'll be out on Monday. That'll be on Monday. I'll finish working up on that over the weekend.
Hopefully that is one that will as a community allow us to find a lot more of these these smaller names that are there because again it's hard to buy SanDisk here even if there's more alpha. But there's probably a much smaller version of Sandis, even if it's not going to go up 40x that is out there. Elon, did Elon just make an announcement?
Did Elon just say something?
Um, no. Elon is just retweeted an AI picture.
No, we're good. Elon's good. Someone said Elon Musk dissolved XAI. I don't I mean technically XAI already was bought out so it's not dissolved. He did tweet this picture though. This is actually a I haven't been through Elon's I had Elon's notifications on eight months ago and I couldn't handle it anymore. I had to delete it. I was just like dude I cannot take these many tweets. Like this guy tweets a billion times a day and he retweets a billion times a day. The caption was orbital data centers.
There you go. Airlines pumping AAL American Airlines. Yep, you're getting a little bit of a pump. United Airlines, that's getting a pump, 3%.
And JetBlue, that's also getting a pump 4%.
I think he's using a bot, there's no way he has so much time. I think Elon legit when he gets five minutes to himself, he probably just goes on X and retweets everything and responds to everything.
It's kind of crazy how much time in his day is occupied by building multiple multiple big companies, but it's why he is Elon. Boeing CEO will join Trump on China visit next week.
Huh.
The Boeing CEO. That's an interesting one. Going with Trump to China.
I wonder exactly the reason for that, but we're going to see what happens there. NY Fed, they just put out some stuff. Let's see what they have to say as well.
>> Unchanged, but they remain at a somewhat elevated level. Uh the one year up 210 to 3.6%. It's the highest level since, yeah, you guessed it, April 25 liberation day tariffs uh pushed up the one-year threeyear 31 5year 3%. It's those two latter ones that the Fed pays more attention to. At least the power Fed did. We'll find out about the worst Fed. Uh but those are a little bit on the high side. Expectations for food prices, medical care, college, and rent actually fell. We'll talk about gas in just a second. Expectations for higher unemployment up 4/10 to 43.9%. That's the highest since April 2025. Again, probability of losing a job also on increase to 0.2 0.2 percentage points to 14.6. And household spending expectations, they are at the highest level since July 2023. And people aren't worried about missing a debt payment.
That's down to the lowest level in two years. Now, gas price growth expectations dropped sharply from 9.4% in March to 5.1% this month. New York Fed in a separate survey found that the wealthiest household, they boosted their spending to match the increase in prices, but it kept their gas consumption the same. Low-income families cut back on their gas consumption to meet ends meet. They were hit harder in March than they were from the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Sarah, I'm sure you're following all these consumerf facing companies and what they're saying and some of them aren't seeing anything at all when it comes to the uh consumer and others like for example the Whirlpool uh commentary today kind of eyebrow raising, >> right? No, we highlighted that. That that was a weak one. There were a few weak ones today with Craft Times and McDonald's talked about weakness. Steve, it assuming Kevin Moore still wants to cut and again we don't know at this point how he feels since the war, but it's going to be tough in this environment to to do that.
>> Yeah, I'm not going to bet against Paul Tudtor Jones and what he said on air this morning. You guys heard that there's no way they could he can cut.
And then he also added that he'd be thinking about raising rates. Guys, this gets to this really fascinating uh discussion about what impact AI has on inflation and on interest rates. What Paul Tudtor Jones is talking about something we've talked about a lot which is that all of this borrowing together with the federal government borrowing puts upward pressure. It's a very simple concept. The demand for capital has increased. So the price of capital goes up at least initially and the productivity is to come and when we saw the decline in productivity today even though it remains high it's a cautionary tale for Kevin Moore say don't necessarily bank right now on those productivity increases. meantime.
>> Now again, I think that's also why the tenure has been elevated. There are still some concerns on if inflation will ring up the way that it did in 2021.
After 2020, it seemed like we could have no inflation and then it ended up happening. the more oil goes down, hopefully starts to push back against that thesis. But obviously, uh, Kevin Worsh is gonna have to decide if he ends up cutting into what he thinks could be rising inflation or, you know, deciding that inflation is not as big of a concern and maybe keeping rates rather neutral. All right, folks. Let's bring someone on to the stream who has been on, I think about three times, couple times in person given we were together.
Uh, good friend of mine, good mentor of mine. He hit a big milestone yesterday as I'm sharing on the screen. A lot of you guys follow him on X already, but uh there's the post right there. 3,000% returns over the past 26 months and many of those names a lot of the community has been able to benefit off like an Amcor, Vyavi, OSS. Let's get him on to the show, get his thoughts on the current state of the markets. Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Stop.
You're live.
I don't think he can hear us.
>> What's going on? I can't hear you.
>> Did you hear anything over the past two minutes?
>> Can you hear me?
>> Yeah. Can you hear me?
>> Why can I not hear you?
>> This is actually hilarious. This is great.
I'll text him right now.
You're live, but you can't hear us.
I like the jersey in the background, dude.
Stock mute weekly.
>> I don't know why I can't.
>> Okay, rejoin. Rejoin.
>> Okay. Yeah, let me try to rejoin.
All right. And now we wait. And now we wait.
Yeah. Stock difficulties versus technical diff. Yo, it's kind of weird because Jose also his thing was lag. He just texted me. He's like, "Sorry for the lag today." He had some weird lag throughout the day. Um or throughout his stream and his mic was kind of going in and out.
Maybe it's Streamyard.
Maybe it's Maybe it's Streamyard.
I'm gonna tell him to text me when when you're good.
Okay. Um well, I guess we go back to the market. SPY is kind of red. Not red, but going a little more red.
7:35 we were at 737.
We're not really seeing that much movement to be honest from the morning.
Micron once again red but it flipped red and green back and forth.
Qualcomm getting a little pump.
Qualcomm.
Oh wow. That's a more than a little bit.
Holy crap. Qualcomm's moving. That was at 194. There had to be some news right there that's getting this one up here.
Uh, let me see what the news is here.
If that's random, that would be kind of crazy.
There has to be a headline. I don't see a headline. That might be just whales coming in. 7% move off the lows today or the Well, the high. It was already up 2% at 194. There you go.
I don't see a headline, but it should be okay.
Let's see if it works now. No, I can also just call them in.
You can also just call in.
Might be your side.
um yeah I don't know 20650 as that's green maybe it's just semis maybe but the other semis are down so maybe it's a rotation into other semis uh Micron AMD Nokia Nokia getting hit today hard blackberry flat basically bloom Also, this was at 3:05 the other day and now it's also down.
He doesn't have headphones. I don't think it's a headphone thing. I think it's just the where his audio is coming from.
Might be Streamyard to be honest. Might be Streamyard.
IGB is also holding strong. That is correct. IGB is Where's Data Dog? Is that one still holding strong? Data Dog.
Yes, that one's still holding strong.
Mid, what stock would you full port?
The responsible answer is the S&P 500, ticker symbol spy.
The degenerate answer, max linear also up 5.2% today. That one's up 300. So see again just like so many of these smaller names AI adjacent made a big move.
The degenerate answer is the name that you think is going to keep going up which I feel like any semiconductor name not literally Jason says Cloudflare dude Cloudflare this whole CDN agents using the web there's a startup that just raised $und00 million that's literally built to um to build a platform for agents to communicate with each other on the web.
The thesis is if there's more agents doing stuff for all of us autonomously, there's going to need to be a new like web experience for those agents. And the ex Twitter guy paragal actually raised uh it's a $2 billion valuation for that for that company.
It's kind of interesting because theoretically you would need a lot of agents or an ecosystem for those agents to communicate with each other.
Jason says, "Den into snow into earnings." So, you know, Snow is interesting. They've been hit so hard for the past three quarters, but they also grew 30%. Which means if they put up a data dog type of quarter and they reacelerate based on uh potentially an AI theme, you know, maybe software catches a bit.
All right, let's try it again. Can you hear us?
>> Yeah, I can hear you now. I don't know what was going on. Uh you >> okay?
We are live. First of all, thank you for being on the show, man. I will uh reintroduce you since here at the last time. For those that are not following Stock Talk on X, he definitely hit a big milestone yesterday.
>> Uh 3,000% return over the past 26 months ever since he started sharing his portfolio publicly in 2024. S&P 500 53% at the same time. Pretty incredible stuff. very inspiring as someone who considers you a friend and mentor and trying to learn about the art of stock picking, which is not an easy thing to do. You've been in the game for almost 15 years now doing this. Um, it's just impressive and a lot of our community has also been benefiting from picks like OSS, Amcor, Vyavi, so many of those names that have led to that alpha. So, thanks for being on the show. Thanks for uh being here and spreading these picks. And I guess my first question to you man is what is your take on the current market environment? A lot of people are saying it's a top. A lot of people are saying do. A lot of people are saying this is too quick too fast given we did have two months of you know depression February and March and now we're breaking out.
What is your take on that? And do you think the earnings picture is just fundamentally changing the way the bears should be thinking about the market environment that we're in? Yeah, I mean I think every time we get into a raging bull market, um there is a lot of people that want to make illusions to to market bubbles of the past.
Over my career, I've found that trying to predict crashes is a fool's errand.
It's useless for all intents and purposes. I've never met anyone um that could do that consistently. And I think even when you think to like people like Michael Bur for example, who people like to think is this uh crash predictor um afficionado, he predicted one crash and got it right one cycle and since then has frankly had a lot of bad calls.
>> Yeah.
>> And has been wrong a lot. And I'm not saying I'm a better investor than Michael Bur or Michael Bur's a bad investor. I'm not that's not the point I'm making. The point I'm making is that um predicting market crashes is literally a fool's errand. It's not something that can be done every cycle consistently over the course of decades. No one ever has been able to do that. No e, no economist, no Wall Street titan, not Paul Tudtor Jones, not Stanley Ducken Miller, not Warren Buffett, not Peter Lynch, none of these guys have been able to predict market crashes consistently over their career. So knowing that, I kind of sit comfortably saying, look, I can't predict that and and I won't let that factor into my process. So look, could we be near a market top? Sure. Um, is the market euphoric? Yeah, it is. Euphoric markets can last a long time though. Bull markets can last a long time. Um, has this run in semiconductors been overzealous a bit? Maybe, but the earnings are backing it up, right? These companies are blowing out earnings.
semiconductor companies, especially the smidcap semiconductor companies, which so many of them have gapped up 30, 40, 50% this earning season. They're hitting inflection points. They're getting data center orders, hyperscaler orders. Uh these are companies that were forgotten or, you know, had boring businesses for for decades. I mean, Amcor, for example, which, you know, I came and talked to you guys here on the show uh at 24 and I still own it. It's still my second largest position. This company went from when I talked to you guys about Amcore on the show had no growth right and that was one of the big criticisms when I remember remember when I shared it here we go to the audience questions people were like well it's not growing >> amore just growth in the last quarter >> right so it went from not growing to 30% growth in what six months right so >> and it's not just Amcor this has happened with dozens of small semiconductor companies midcap semiconductor companies right Amcore went from a five billion market cap to 18 billion mark cap, whatever it is now.
Vyavi, not a semiconductor company, but a testing company, network testing and semi- testing company, photonix testing.
These guys, same thing, you know, from 13 that when we got in, now it's a $50 stock. So, so many of these names, yeah, they've gone up a lot, but the businesses have fundamentally changed.
They've returned to growth. Businesses that were not growing are now growing again. They're getting hyperscaler orders. They're getting multi-billion dollar contracts. And me and Chris, Chris Patel, who I know you've had on the show before, me and him were sort of debating about this on on spaces and Twitter yesterday and he was like, "Look, like where is the money coming from and where is the money going?" That was kind of what the the proposition he was putting on the table. And I was like, "It's obvious." Did Did anyone see the mag seven earnings, the this earnings score? I mean, they all smash EPS estimates like blew them out of the water by multiple dollars, right? I don't remember $10 versus $7, $5 versus $3 expectations. Like they blew EPS estimates out of the water and so they're making a lot of money and then on top of that they're spending a lot of money. Now where's that spend going?
People are like where's the ROI?
The ROI is going to the real economy, right? You look at power grid players, right? Um you look at small data center infrastructure providers. You look at companies even like OSS with rugged compute which just had a monster quarter and went up 60% yesterday.
>> Yeah.
>> The money is trickling down when these guys are spending hund and I'm not making a political statement here about trickle down economics. The money is literally trickling down when you're spend when the hyperscalers are spending hundreds of billions of dollars. Not every single dollar is going to Nvidia.
Yeah, a lot of it is, but not every single dollar is. Tens of billions, even hundreds of billions of that of that money is going to smaller infrastructure players, electricity providers, uh, hardware, substations, fittings, um, server racks, all sorts of things that companies of all kinds build. I don't know if anyone saw Sterling Construction the other day, which was up 50% on earnings. That's a construction company.
Why were they up 50%. Because they're building data centers. Does this not produce jobs? Does this not produce a demand for materials that is stimulative to the economy? So people are asking where's the money going? What is it doing for the real economy today? And my answer is the buildout is doing quite a lot for the real economy. It's doing a lot of heavy lifting for the real economy. So are we in a bubble? Depends how you define bubble.
But what I wouldn't say is even if we are in a bubble, let's just say for for saying sake that we're in a bubble, how long does it last is the real question.
Not are we in a bubble? And a lot of the greatest investors of all time will say when you see a bubble, run to it. You know, run to it and make as much money as possible. Because markets are about, excuse me, markets are about how much money you make in between the crashes, >> right?
>> That's the whole point >> because there's always a crash inevitably.
>> There's always a crash. Like anyone who sits down and tells you there's never going to be a crash again. I mean, they're either just trolling you or or or they're lying to themselves. But there will be crashes. There might be a crash this year, next year, whatever.
The question is, how much money do you make between the crashes? And how much do you keep during the crash? That is all that matters, right? And so if there's a bubble, let's just assume there's a bubble in between every crash. You want to be in that bubble, you know? And when the going gets tough, the indices start breaking down, the leaders start falling apart, then you can ask yourself, okay, is is is the party over? But it's a fool's errand to try to uh predict when that's going to happen.
Okay, so let's talk about some of the plays you're in versus some of the plays that have gone kind of vertical. I want to start off with the large caps. Uh Micron, SanDisk. Simple question. Would you be buying those here? And similar to the AMDs and the Nvidia, I mean all these names, Nvidia less to an extent, but all these names that have started to really take off even though they're not smidcaps.
Is there alpha in buying them here or are you afraid that the cyclical nature of these companies is being rerated to such an extent that SanDisk is up 4,000% in a year?
>> Um, so I don't own any of the memory plays.
I'll be clear about that. just off rip.
We'll go over my portfolio later um as well. But as you guys know, I'm a smidcap guy for the most part. So I focus on smidcaps that I think can become larger companies. You know, OSS, Amcore, VI, when MCore and Vyavi when I bought them were midcaps and now they're they're large caps. But um when it comes to these large cap memory plays, Sandis, Micron, etc., I I I'm not I'm not opposed to that thesis. And there's a couple of reasons why. First of all, this is the biggest buildout in terms of chip purchasing that we've ever seen in terms of cadence of chip purchasing, right? You have the biggest companies in the world all spending hundreds of billions of dollars on basically the same subset of products. That's never happened before.
In the dotcom bubble, the focus on infrastructure was very different. It wasn't so chip focused as it is today.
It was more telecom infrastructure focused. Now today's buildout it is I think a fair very fairly safe assumption fairly safe assumption to say yes this is going to be a longer cycle than normal because of the level of spend. So I think cycle extension is a fair argument and then more importantly than that those stocks are cheap now and and the funny thing is is micron and sandisk on a forward basis these are still cheap.
>> Yeah >> even after these enormous runs. Now the rub lies in this which is that a when does a cycle end which I don't know and b traditionally speaking if you go back to previous memory cycles for those who have studied memory cycles in the past you will see that these stocks are visually very cheap usually at the end of the cycle and so that spooked a lot of people because they're like oh well typically when I see Micron trading at seven times forward earnings it's at the end of the cycle C, you know, so this time it's the question is is this an extended cycle? And if it is an extended cycle, then how much higher can those names go? And if this cycle, let's say, lasts twice as long as previous cycles, the answer is they can go a lot higher. Now, is Micron and Sandisk going straight up in a straight line mean that the markets about to crash?
Maybe. But I I wouldn't I wouldn't put that much credence on it. I think what's happening is that investors, institutional and retail alike, are trying to make their minds up about this to say, okay, we all agree this is going to be an extended cycle. I mean, at this point with the way these stocks have run, the market agrees it's going to be extended cycle, but how far is it going to extend and how much should these stocks be bit up in light of that?
Should they trade it 10 times forward?
Should they trade it 15 times forward?
So, the market is kind of in this pricing moment right now where it's trying to ascertain how expensive these stocks should trade going into the tail end of the cycle. And maybe it's not even the tail end. Maybe it's just halfway through, >> right?
>> Um, so I'm not opposed to memory thesis.
The in memory investors out there, I'm not mad at them. I'm like, "Hey, go for it. I get I get the game that you're playing." I personally don't have any exposure to those giants, those memory giants. Um, but I'm not mad at the trade and I and I and I understand the rationale behind it. So, >> are you afraid that if that trade tops out, a lot of the smid caps get topped out because capex fears top in to an extent.
>> The memory trade tops out.
>> Yeah. Like if if if because it would top out in the context of capex going down I would imagine or growth of capex spheres leading up which might hurt some of the smaller like an amcore if >> you know packaging demand potentially goes down if there's less or you just don't think that's possible given the amount of compute constraints that we have right now.
>> Yeah. Right now I think compute constraints are just too restrictive.
The thing is is that memory supply takes a long time to bring online.
>> Yeah.
>> It's not something you can just snap your fingers overnight. And so that's where the squeeze is really coming from is people saying, "Okay, well it may take years to bring the necessary memory supply online. It may take two or three years. It may take all the way until the next cycle." So that's something people are thinking about. But when it comes to the midcaps, well, of course, it's not a midcap anymore. It's a large cap now. But when it comes to some of these derivative plays, right, packaging, testing, um, it's more about hyperscaler spend, right? I think the reason why the market ripped so hard these past couple of weeks, and I don't even mean the S&P 500, I mean individual names, like our names, right?
The reason they went up so much in the last couple weeks is because the Mag 7 not only had stellar earnings, I thought across the board. I know Meta traded down on theirs and whatever, but I think they all had stellar earnings. They all reiterated their spend. Many of them raised the guide on their spend, right?
As long as that continues, I think it's really really hard to fade this market.
You know, I think I I mentioned this in a tweet after the Mag 7 earnings. I think the life force of this bull market is the idea that the biggest companies in history, not only the biggest companies in the world, they're the biggest companies in history, these nine tech juggernauts in America, um, you know, Broadcom, TSM, not even just in America, around the world, Broadcom, TSM, Amazon, Google, Tesla, Microsoft, they're all making a lot of money and they're all spending a lot of money, right? that is stimulative not only to the economy but it's stimulative to the bottom 80% of of tech stocks that live below them in the ecosystem below them right >> so when the biggest companies in the world are making a lot of money and spending a lot of money it's hard to fade that right it's very very hard to fade that >> so that's what I think the driver is and I think if you want to fade this market or you want to call top in this market that's the first sign you should look for that's the first sign where I think you should start being cautious is to say wait a second they're slowing their spend down wait a second they're guiding down on their spend and that hasn't happened yet so you know you've had a lot of gains this year and after this we'll talk about some of the uh the positions that you're the most excited about but profit taking uh midterm year seasonal weakness before the elections July June tend to suck for stocks historically or es especially tech stocks like you know you have Nebia at 23 I'm assuming you're not thinking of trimming here but is there a certain level of trimming that you think should happen not just for you but for a lot of people that are up this year before we head into some harder months >> wait rephrase that >> would you trim your stocks right here even after >> for me look my philosophy on trimming and selling has always been the same which is that I sell stocks when the thesis breaks.
Period. So whenever I buy an individual name, I have a thesis behind it. I have a reason I buy it. When that thesis starts breaking down, I become a seller of the stock, right? Um I don't sell before I see real breakdowns in the thesis. And so for me, where we stand today, my thesis is intact on pretty much everything I own. And so as long as that remains true, I cannot I I I just can't bring myself to sell. Now the exception to that is when I think market conditions are unfavorable, right? And I was talking about this yesterday. I don't predict the macro to determine that. I have a very simple barometer that I've used for over a decade. It's going to sound so rudimentary when I say this, but it really is the best I think um barometer to use, which is is the S&P 500 trading above the 200 day moving average or not?
>> And people say, "Well, dude, come on.
You need more data than that." No, you don't. And I'll tell you why. The S&P 500 is the most owned stock asset on planet Earth. The Saudis own it. The Europeans own it. The Americans own it.
The Canadians own it. The people in uh Singapore own it. People in China own it. People Everyone owns it.
And it's so hyperlquid that I often think the S&P 500 is just your reflection of the market. If the S&P 500 is below the 200 day moving average, you start to be cautious. You start to ask yourself, okay, do I need to have X, Y, and Z positions on the plate or no? Do I need to have these trades, these peripheral positions on the plate? When the S&P 500's above the 200 day moving average, you're in a bull market. Game on. Dance while the music is playing. Um I I even said this this week, too. That would be my favorite piece of advice.
Whenever people ask me, you know, give me a piece of advice or give me what's your best um piece of advice on the market. My best piece of advice on the market is dance while the music is playing.
you know, um if I if you're in an obvious bull market, stocks are going up, the S&P 500's ripping above the 200 day moving average, buy stocks, play the game. Um, you know, and when that's not the case, that's when you kind of take your foot off the pedal, put your hands back, and say, "Okay, let's be patient and wait um or or reduce some exposure or or or get incrementally cautious or put puts on the table or whatever." But um you change your attitude when that changes. So I think if you want to use the simplest barometer, you just go to your charts and you say, "Hey, is the S&P 500 trading above the 200 day moving average? If it is, cool, game on. If not, okay, let me let me find out why. Let me see if that's a I think a legitimate reason or let me adjust my portfolio accordingly." So that's what I've always done for years and years and years. And it hasn't failed me yet. We we lost the 200 day moving average in uh March, but the structural bull market was not lost.
>> No, but I became cautious, you know. Um I took some I took a little bit of options exposure off the table just to be cautious. Um you know, I cut a few peripheral positions. It ended up recovering pretty quickly, so I didn't have to spend too long in that cautious attitude. But as soon as we were back above the 200 day, I was like, game on.
Yeah, >> you know, I don't wait. My bias is fluid. And this is the thing. A lot of times you see people criticizing people in the markets like, "Oh, you're a flip-flopper." Or, "Oh, you were bearish last week, you're bullish this week."
That's the whole [ __ ] point. You should flip-flop in markets. Your bias should be fluid. Um, you should be willing to go from bullish to bearish if necessary. And so, yeah, there are moments of the market where I get cautious. Um, am I bullish 95% of the time? Yeah. I mean, that's the appropriate thing to do. Markets go up about 85% of the time. So, am I mostly bullish? Yeah, absolutely. Am I um always bullish? No. There are moments where I'm cautious. There are moments where I say, "Okay, there's good reason for stocks to be selling here. We're below the 200 day. Um I'm not going to put my foot on the gas, >> right? You know, performance is generated when you press the gas at the right moments. When you leverage your exposure at the right moments, when the market's bullish, when it's accommodating environment, you're pushing the gas, you're hitting trades, you're dropping options contracts and your favorites names, you're adding leverage.
That's where the performance comes from.
It doesn't come from um you know, the the weak moments in markets. Sweet moments are markets where you kind of just take your hand off the table, take your foot off the gas, um, and let things settle out.
>> So, let's end it on your portfolio and kind of how you've been thinking about all this. And again, guys, his Twitter's right there, so everyone can make sure to follow him. Discord link is in his chat.
>> Aerial overview of it.
>> Yeah, I think it's aerial overview and uh, >> run through.
>> Yeah. Yeah, that would work.
>> Okay. So, Dan, when's the last time I came on? It's been months, right?
>> I think it was early February. And a lot of those positions are still the same.
I'm sure you added some new ones, but many of them >> a lot has changed.
>> Since then, a lot has changed. Um, >> someone said >> power through this. So, this is as of last week. This as of my portfolio update as of May 1st. I haven't gone and broken down the waitings as of this week, but I did open four new spots this week as well. Um, so I've been opening a lot of positions.
I have a lot of lot of new stuff. So, all right. Um, Power Grid Basket, you guys know, um, ENS is my core position there. I've talked to you guys about that before.
That's at about 11% waiting. I think it's a little lower now. Um, after this week, I'll have to go see what the adjustment was. These are all, again, these weightings are all as of last week, guys. These waitings were probably different on the portfolio update I post tomorrow. I know a lot of you are in the community now um from midstream. For those of you that are there, you'll see the portfolio update tomorrow when I post it. But this is as of last week.
Um and then PLPC is the second biggest.
That's about 2.8% in that basket. Actually PLC was definitely probably overtaken this week by AMSC. I would imagine American Superconductor AMSC that probably overtook PLPC this week. Um BDC is a new one. Beldin they're cabling company. They acquired a network services company too on their last earnings. The reaction was negative, but I actually like that acquisition.
US semiconductor supply chain. I don't own PAB anymore. I mentioned that to you guys last time I was on the stream, but Amcore is still there. That's the only position on the semiconductor basket. So that's a separate basket.
>> Did you take profit on Amcore at all people are asking or no?
>> N.
>> Wow. Okay. So heavy conviction there.
>> Conviction. Yeah. Heavy conviction. And also I think the valuation is still reasonable now that the company has returned to growth. It's not an expensive stock. You got look at the numbers. It's not an expensive stock.
And so um I think Amcor is so winner agnostic. They're able to benefit from so many different parts of the industry.
Everything from Intel's packaging to Broadcom's custom A6 to TSM's packaging to Apple's packaging, they're just so exposed that um I like to continue to own it and have such a deep deep cost base advantage as well. So that helps.
Um so that's that's that name sits alone in this basket. Then you have data center AI infrastructure basket. Um that's Vavi is the biggest position there. Uh that's at over 20% of the portfolio now. So that that's the biggest waiting in the portfolio uh by far. Um second position in the data center basket is NBIS obviously which I've owned since last May. That's now a seven beggger for me.
Um >> people are asking are you selling Nebas here? Any thoughts on that?
>> Nope. I think Nebius is the best talent in the industry. The best um the best Neocloud stock. I mean, a lot of people forget you're not going to value that company off its revenues. You're not going to go look at the earnings reports and value that company off its revenues. That company needs to be valued off of its backlog and the sum of parts of its subsidiaries, right? They own ClickHouse, which is the biggest data observability platform in the world.
Open AI, SpaceX both use it.
It's a multi multi multi-billion dollar company. They own 30% of it. They own Toka, a data man AI data management business that Jeff Bezos invested in.
They own AVID, which is an autonomous vehicle business that does delivery, food delivery in Dallas right here, right outside my house. I get it. Every time I order Uber Eats here, they give me the option to use an AV ride robot.
So, they have these multi-billion dollar subsidiaries and then they have to the tune of 30 plus billion dollars in backlog orders with Microsoft prepaying 40%. So Nebius I think is the best team in the industry, best concentration of talent.
Um and then one of the newer ones there is P, which is formerly PSTG, but now the ticker is just P.
>> Oh, this is >> Yep. Ever pure.
>> Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
>> Yeah.
>> Um and that's a pure pure options position. No equity. So all those other names I mentioned were equity. That is just pure options. Um then you have robotics and edge AI.
Robotics and edge AI. Uh that's OSS is obviously the biggest position. Um then you have a new one. This is a speculative one, but it is a pretty big waiting VLN balance semiconductor.
Um I don't think I've talked to you guys about that one before, but that is a newer ad. Then you have Synaptics, SY, NA, which I talked to you guys about I think last time I was on stream. Yeah.
>> Um or maybe it was on equity edge on it.
I don't remember. Uh but that's one that reports today after hours. Actually, a lot of people were tagging me. They're like, "Stock talk, you lost your touch when synaptics fell down to the 70s, but now it's back up to 100 plus." So, hey, don't put that.
>> Sometimes sometimes a thesis needs >> Yeah. You need months if you know, right?
>> Yeah. You need some breathing room.
People want everything. People are so used to my picks from last year just all ripping right away. And I was like, "Dude, calm down for a month. Just wait.
Just wait." And so, yeah, it's been doing good. We'll see though. Earnings tonight. You know, I don't want to jinx it. Maybe the earnings go badly, but I'm not I'm not selling that stock, even if the earnings go badly.
Um, then I have VPG in that basket.
Bachet Precision Group.
They have about 4% of segment revenue coming from humanoids right now, which I think is interesting considering humanoids are a non-existent industry.
So you are starting to prepare potentially for a humanoid robotic supply chain.
>> Not even humanoid robotics, just robotics.
>> Okay.
>> But I but I think there's a lot of overlap. Like I think a lot of the things needed for general purpose robots are the same things needed for humanoids, you know. So >> um yeah, but that is kind of what I'm looking at.
Then I have CTS in that basket.
And then another new basket telecom and voice AI there. I have uh RDCM as the biggest position.
Then I have Lumen Lu MN.
Then I have CXDO.
>> CXDO.
>> Yes sir. And CXDO actually reported earnings yesterday. I thought they did a stellar job. Uh, I think that is going to be the next band, Bandwidth, which has been on a crazy run uh lately. This is my No, I don't own band, but it's just uh that's a comp to band. They had a monster report yesterday. For those that are interested in CXO, you should go look at that. Really, the thinking behind this telecom and voice AI basket is that fiber infrastructure and legacy telecom infrastructure is becoming more important for two reasons.
Number one, low latency, high-speed connections for data center providers. AWS cloud is interested in this. Oracle cloud infrastructure is interested in this.
OCI um they both have partnerships with Lumen. CXDo's case, same thing. A lot of voice AI interconnects. So people who want to use automated um you know voice networks, AI voice networks, this is all for that. So RDCM extremely cheap company as well.
Um, but yeah, anyway, those are all probably worth looking into. Then you have uh AI fraud and verified identity.
That's MC Systems. I think I've also talked to you guys about that one before.
>> We did an we did an episode on that.
Yeah.
>> Yeah, we did an episode on that one.
They report earnings today after hours as well. Looking for traction in their AI fraud business.
Then you have nuclear energy. Only one position there. Only ever really had planned to have one position. That's LEU. Yep. You're reading my mind. And then uh defense I have Irdm HIi a very very very small position in Kratos. Yeah very small um it's like 2% of the portfolio now and then I also picked up some AVAV calls yesterday.
Reason for that is is that I'm speculating that their Locust program will be selected as the military's directed energy weapon.
>> Okay.
>> The Department of Defense posted a image that has Locust X3 in the image and that's their product and then yesterday they did testing with the DoD.
So I think connecting the dots there that's probably likely to happen and that's it. Yeah. Yeah. And then you have the legacy positions Amazon, Tesla, Robin Hood.
>> So you are not interested in buying more like Google or Shopify or like these companies 100 200 billion market cap.
That's zero interest for you.
>> The total waiting on those legacy positions Amazon, Tesla, Robin Hood is like less than 3% of the portfolio.
>> They they've gotten so small. And the reason for that is is because I owned them many years ago, first of all, but the portfolio's 32xed in two years. And so when you own pure equity positions from a long time ago and the portfolio 32x's, >> you know what I mean, >> right?
>> You're going to have a lag. So one things we didn't talk about on there are the new positions. Like I mentioned, AVA calls that I picked up. I picked up a BB calls, Blackberry calls yesterday.
>> BlackBerry. Interesting.
>> Yeah, I think their Q&X platform which is used for electric vehicles. Um, it's interconnected to like 100 plus million vehicles. I think it's being underrated.
I think it's useful as a robotics platform. I wrote a thesis on that in Discord as well. So, I picked up those calls yesterday. I picked up RNG earnings lots. Those aren't really a position. They're just earnings lottos.
the airport earnings today after hours.
Uh, Ring Central, another voice AI play.
Um, telecom and voice AI play. The airport earnings tonight.
Um, so I picked those up.
>> People asking why sell Kratos.
>> I didn't sell it. It it just got it underperformed. A lot of times, guys, when waiting goes down a lot, it's not about me selling the stock. It's about the rest of the portfolio outperforming the stock.
>> Right.
>> Right. So the relative waiting in the portfolio goes down. So I I didn't sell Kratos. It just has sucked.
The stock has just sucked. And so the waiting went down a lot. Um but yeah, I added those calls. Those are all pretty liquid names, so I don't feel um bad about sharing those. Um, and there's also one new position that I added yesterday, which I won't share with you guys yet, but maybe next time we're on, I want to give the people in the community a chance to to look into it and get it. But there's a very very compelling AI stock that I found that I think is is much much too cheap. Trades at less than two times cash, less than 0.5 times EV over sales, uh, with no debt. So very very compelling and I'll probably share that with you guys next time I'm on stream or maybe next week on Equity Edge me and I'm going to try to figure out a way to bring Equity Edge back. I was thinking maybe we just do it every week even if I don't have a stock to pitch.
Just talk about the market. I don't know. We'll figure it out.
>> Yeah, >> we're both pretty busy, so we'll figure out >> Yeah, that the I've been traveling so much the past couple months. So I mean that's >> part of the reason why.
>> Um a couple rapid fire questions for you and then we'll let you go. I can tell you've been working, dude. You're antivirus.
>> Yeah, I know. I don't evil.
>> Yeah. Yeah. I don't want >> software dead or alive. Would you buy software at all?
>> I mean, I own some software. Some of those names I mentioned to you. I mean, the tech systems technically software.
Ring Central where I'm playing the earnings tonight technically software. A lot of those telecom and voice AI plays I brought up to you guys, those are technically software. So, there are areas of software I think are interesting. your service now is not something >> no and and here's the thing I had this argument yesterday uh on on spaces long term I am bearish on software now the argument you kind of hear is this you hear well software is going to get vibe coded away right and then on the other side of the argument you hear no that's not going to happen no one's going to vibe code CRM That's not the argument. The argument is not that every software you know will be vibe coded away.
The argument is that the ability to build software more easily decreases the pricing power for software.
>> Right? the ability to build software more easily decreases the pricing power for existing software. That's the argument. And I think it's a very very hard argument to crack.
You know, the analogy that I used yesterday was like uh with a cleaner. I I use this example of like a maid who might come to your house and clean your house, right? And you might she might charge you $500 in a future where and this has nothing to do with software. This is just analogy from a different industry. in a future where a humanoid robot could clean your house, even if they can't clean it as well.
Maybe the humanoid robot sucks at doing dishes, sucks at cleaning the baseboards, can't dust the fan. Does the existence of that option decrease the pricing power of the maid?
And the answer is yes.
>> Yeah. Because even if you say, "You know what? I still going to go with the maid because she does the baseboards and she can can she charge you the same amount?"
No. Because now you have this extremely affordable potential option, right? So put yourself in the shoes of let's say a small business who pays an enterprise software company. And I'm saying small as in let's say they have 500 employees, okay? and they pay an a software company per seat, right? They pay them, let's say, $1,000 per seat per year or whatever. I mean, I'm just making up numbers here, okay? $1,000 per seat per year.
Then Claude sends a sales guy to them and says, "Well, we can build you an in-house CRM and we'll do it internally and you know, we'll just get Claude to do it and it'll cost you nothing per seat. We'll just charge you a fixed fee."
That person, that business owner may then go to the software company and say, "Look, I don't want to do this. I don't want to get I don't want to get a custom in-house CRM built. I'd rather keep using you guys, but I'm not going to pay you a thousand a seat, >> right?
>> Because now there's this there's this alternative that is much cheaper. So, it's a twofold problem. A, net seats go down because you're going to have less people working, but more importantly than that, pricing power goes down when something becomes easier to build.
Right? The easier a house becomes to build, pricing power for houses goes down, the easier a car becomes to build, pricing power for cars goes down, so on and so forth. It it is it it rings true economically across all industries. This concept that pricing power is eroded >> by cheaper competition, >> right?
>> And that will always be true. And so that's why worry about software. So in the really long run, do I want to have legacy software companies in my portfolio? No. Is there a trade to be made here? Absolutely. That I I'm not going to um push back against. I think there's absolutely a trade to be made here. So, if you want to trade software off the lows because the multiples are cheap and they're gapping up 20 30% on earnings, absolutely go for it and do that. I don't I'm not sure that I'm a believer that this will be a great thing to do in the very very long run, right?
Um in terms of software. So, yeah, that's kind of my thinking.
All right, we will end it there. I think uh I think you just need some sleep, bro. I feel >> I need some sleep. I'm so tired.
>> Freaking sleep.
>> But that's good. It means you're working. It means you're freaking working. So >> yeah, there's too much money to be made, man. Um but yeah, no, I am I'm getting sick. We can hear my voice. But I appreciate you guys. I'll be on um whenever I'm going to has me next. And then we will figure at some point we'll bring you guys another Equity Edge episode. Maybe next week on that new stock that I bought, maybe the week after, we'll talk about it. But I appreciate you guys. Thanks for listening.
>> There's his Twitter. I have his uh port also linked in the Google docs. People can click on that, go through the names that they want. Stock talk. Thank you again, man. Congrats on all the success.
Of >> course, man. Peace, guys.
>> Talk to you next.
>> Take it easy.
>> All right, I've got to go because I have a meeting at 12 p.m. So, I'll be back on the market close. They've got a lot of freaking earnings. Uh, I don't even know how I'm going to cover all of these earnings. Sam will be with me, but we have Coinbase, Rocket Lab, Soundhound, Iran, Cororee, Melly, Airbnb, Trade Desk, Cloudflare, Open Door, SMR, MP, XYZ, Block, Affirm, DraftKings, Redcat, AOI, Lyft, Serve, Monster, Texas Roadhouse. It is going to be absolute madness. We're going to listen to Irene with Sam. Okay, so we will listen to Iran, but we're going to get through all the earnings and it's just going to be a wild, wild end to the week. Um, then after the market close, I'll be head on a flight to Chicago to see everybody there for the meet up. Thank everybody.
Appreciate it. I'll see you guys on the market close. We'll have a lot of earnings. We'll have Sam on. We'll listen to Ren and we'll get to all these numbers. Again, shout out to Stock Talk.
His link right there on X. You can follow him there. and we'll probably have him on in a few weeks as well as we uh bring back equity edge hopefully next week. Thanks everybody. Appreciate it. I will see you guys tonight.
Got like 35 companies reporting today.
I'll see you guys after the bell. Bye everybody.
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