ONE MORE MARKET SQUEEZE!!

[00:00:00]What's going on guys? Welcome back to the channel. Hopefully you guys are all doing well. Happy Saturday. Hopefully you guys had yourselves an absolutely fantastic week this week in the market.

[00:00:07]I know it was a short week. Happy long weekend. Happy Juneteenth yesterday or Juneteenth long weekend. I'm not sure exactly how to say it or how how people celebrate it. That being said, we had an absolutely massive new Fed chair step in for the for the last FOMC meeting and give us an update on all the different ways he intends on moving forward with the different task force and his perspective or the new perspective that the Fed is going to take into work in regards to monetary policy and how they're going to maneuver and how they're going to update the public and how they're going to address the media and how they're going to answer questions and how they're no longer going to have forward-looking statements. Basically, the new Fed is now being put in place. What does this mean for the market? What does this mean for the back half of the year?

[00:00:47]It is very possible at this point time that we have one more good bull run in us this year before we do see a significant drawdown. That to me is what I want to just highlight or keep an eye out for, but mainly speak about in this video. There are several different setups out there guys. Stay tuned for this channel. We will be posting a few different updates with a few different steps that look absolutely fantastic because some stocks ripped this week and did not care for any sort of market pullback and those are the names you want to watch the most because those are the strongest names, but I also want to keep an eye on some of the weaker names.

[00:01:17]Some of the names that were falling harder than everything else while the market was pulling back because if the market does continue to have a downtrend based off of some sort of crazy headlines that come out this weekend, those are the names that I want to be short. If you have not yet guys, smash the like button. If you're new here, subscribe to the channel. Welcome back gang gang for those of you guys who have been subscribed for a minute. Uh smash the like button. If you want to live trade with the team guys, with the gang, link in the description below. I cannot express to you the kind of week that we had with the amount of 100% plus trades that we've had called out, managed, adjusted to, rolled out to. Then we had the rolled out calls also do very well.

[00:01:53]Amazing week. Before we get the weekly video, before we get the flow updates, before we get a a really full breakdown on how money was moving behind the scenes. Link in the description below, guys, so you guys can live trade with us on Monday and kick off the back half of your week right. Make trading easy, okay? Now, >> [clears throat and cough] >> first things first, guys, we got to listen to our guy Tom Lee, because he had a thought process that we may be seeing something very interesting in the back half of the year. Then I want to break down from a macro perspective what this market looks like. Without any further ado, guys, here we go.

[00:02:21]>> Joins us now. It's good to have you on our program today. Tell our producers investors overreacted to the Fed meeting it seems to be the consensus, the growing consensus that that was what happened yesterday. Why do you think that?

[00:02:36]>> Um hi, Scott. Um Kevin Warsh has a very different communication style and he he plans to kind of modernize how the Fed monitors data. So, I think the markets took the removal of that forward guidance and even looking at those dot plots as a hawkish pivot, but I think instead I think it's a Kevin Warsh that's saying, "Listen, I'm going to be using modern data, real-time alternative data to understand what's going on with inflation, and at this moment we have no conviction. So, to me, I think it's actually a very markets-friendly view.

[00:03:09]Um I think the the homework now is for investors to understand that if data changes, those dots are going to move pretty quickly. So, I I think overall it's actually quite a dovish meeting."

[00:03:20]>> So, 7,500 is where we sit right now on the S&P. Been looking for a few different scenarios to play out in the market between now and the remainder of the year. If you think that yesterday was dovish and a lot of other people thought it was hawkish, and you came into yesterday thinking that we were going to have some moment where the market was going to have a correction of some magnitude, have you changed that view?

[00:03:46]>> Um Scott, we still believe uh later this year there is going to be an abrupt change of market conditions. What >> This is exactly what I want to highlight. Here we go.

[00:03:57]>> One that feels very much like a bear market. Um but we don't want to stand and uh call a top. I think conditions are still favorable for stocks. You know, the SpaceX IPO was very successful. And as you know, there's been a cadence of pretty good news coming out of that company. And it is a very small float company with only 90 billion of float. Um and I think Kevin Warsh uh his view this was actually kind of a a market reaction to his first press conference. But I think that the the real challenge is going to come later this year. So I I think yes, very much there is going to be a change in market tone, but I think it's too early for people to expect that to happen now.

[00:04:40]>> But when you say there's going to be a quote abrupt change of market conditions, I mean, you can't make a statement like that without telling me why you you think that. What what's going to happen?

[00:04:52]>> Uh well, >> I will show you guys a few different examples of what when we've seen this before in the past and what that looked like from a structural perspective from a price act price action perspective in the market. I just want him to finish his thought clearly and then I'll get into this, okay? If you haven't yet, guys, smash the like button. Let's keep this going here.

[00:05:08]>> I think that there are Sorry, let's say I we can see with pretty good visibility three things happening. You know, one is that we know markets eventually test, especially if a Fed that's redoing the fight, you know, framework with five task forces. I think that's in 2026. The second is that the IPO of SpaceX today there's very little float, but that's going to unlock later this year in phases along with the IPO of Anthropic and OpenAI.

[00:05:36]And the third is that because of just the the disruptions we experienced so far in the Straits of Hormuz, there is in the supply chain coming shortages.

[00:05:46]That Those are actually the preconditions. I think the fourth catalyst is that speculative firepower runs out. Um that will happen when some things like margin debt, you know, experience levels that are associated with short-termed corrections. Or it could be that you could see a lot of cash move on the sidelines. But I don't have any sense that investors are that bullish yet. So to me, I don't think that fourth piece is in place yet.

[00:06:14]>> All right, guys. So we have a lot to look out for here. Now, this is what I just saw. Two people killed uh in drone strikes in southern Lebanon after ceasefire agreement went into effect, state media reports citing medical source. There have been several different incidents that can and potentially will shake up the current ceasefire agreement that the United States of America and Iran have come to.

[00:06:39]To me, it's possible that the shortages that Tommy has been speaking about do come into fruition if things do not get back to normal soon.

[00:06:50]That is why I think there was a little bit more of a push towards getting an agreement or a 60-day ceasefire in place while the agreement was actually uh detailed out because the the setbacks that can be delayed are still going to be hit. I mean, North America at least will be hit by these setbacks, these delays, these issues with the passages. Now, the second thing is we have seen this before. In 2023, when we saw the market rip up from March. Stop me when you haven't heard when you recognize this or you've seen this before. Rip all the way up here to the end of July, and then from the end of July, see a pullback in the market to October. And then from October, we then saw that huge rise in the market all the way until the next year in April, okay?

[00:07:44]Now, to me, this is very possible.

[00:07:49]Or should I should say this is very possibly the outcome that we could be looking at for the market. Right now, we are currently mid-June. So, I'm going to show you guys where we are right now.

[00:07:57]Right now, it is currently when you guys are watching this video, 2/3 through the way of June. So, we're roughly in this patch right here.

[00:08:06]We could still do all of this before coming back to where we are now, seeing a lower high, coming back down much lower, and then rallying all the way back up for the next 6 months.

[00:08:22]That is what Tom Lee is describing. He didn't use this exact example. This is the closest thing that I can find in something that I think you guys may all remember. And there's something that I also think we should keep an eye out for. From a seasonal perspective, going in towards October, at the end of July, things may get a little shifty. Things may get a little choppy. Things may get a little bit questionable. I do think there could be the AI fears, a bubble, all that jazz.

[00:08:45]But, nonetheless, if we do see the market break new all-time highs again, I think we probably have another two to six weeks of a bullish rally before we have to start making some very, very, very serious decisions around if this market can go higher or not, okay? Please keep this part in mind. As far as the spy goes, coming after this week, guys, we had ourselves an absolutely amazing end of the week with the spy gapping up and holding, setting up what looks like a potential daily reversal setup here, almost like a bullish harami setup. This to me would lead to the market pushing back up over 750, and then retesting highs. That could be a very positive look for the market. And that's just for the spy. For the Qs, we saw something even more positive. We saw higher highs. This could definitely be looking like we are setting up a I'm going to put this on the hourly to make it even more clear.

[00:09:38]We're setting up a cup and handle and the Q's maybe off to new highs which may bring the chips with them. I think it's very possible going into next week guys as long as things stay okay with the headlines. We see a massive rally. But into the end of July and beginning of August, I think we should start keeping our eyes peeled for any sort of significant red flags that the market may be ready to take a step back or four before and we end up taking another eight to 10 steps forward, okay? We're going to leave things there for now guys. There will be more videos this weekend. If you have not yet smash the like button. If you're new here, subscribe to the channel. If you want to live trade with us guys and make trading easy for you, please do. Link in the description below. Jump in there. Please prepare yourselves for the week ahead.

[00:10:17]We will be live trading on Monday. Much love. Catch you guys on the flip side.

[00:10:20]Deuces.