The true state of the SWFL market and who will benefit

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]Good morning, everyone. Welcome to Connect [music] to Florida. So, this time of year, which I call our shoulder season, [music] is always the time of year that I start to see the articles come out. And eventually, [music] within a month or so, you're going to be seeing them constantly, two, three, four times a week. So, what am I talking about? We are moving into the shoulder season, which means we're exiting season for us.

[00:00:28]And by season, I mean the winter, when it's cold up north for you, it's prime selling season here in Florida. Why?

[00:00:39]Because all of you come from up north, and you want to get out of the cold and come down into the warmer weather. I always tell you, you know, it's usually like turkey to bunny. You know what I mean? Thanksgiving to Easter. That is our season, including the shoulder seasons. January, February, March, I'm explaining this because I do get this question often. January, February, March, that's our high season. That's when everybody's here. But those other months that butt up against that, that's the shoulder season. So, all of that said, what tends to happen is when we move out of that time frame, people start to panic. I mean, that's just the truth, because they know the most amount of people that are going to be in Florida, the best opportunity in a resort style area. So, I'm talking about anywhere, really, that's within, let's just say, 45 minutes to an hour drive time, not traffic time, but drive time, of a big giant body of water. That can be considered resorty. So, think both coasts, not the panhandle, though, because that's weather change. That's a cuz that is a flip-flop market. So, we're not talking about panhandle. We're talking about East Coast of Florida, West Coast of Florida, and to some degree the villages, but you have to remember if I'm going to talk about Central Florida, that really is more of the Disney crowd as well. So, you do get that again, different. We're not talking about that.

[00:02:17]We're talking about resort Florida up and down both coasts.

[00:02:22]Winter is here, market is great. Winter is gone, everybody's at home living life in Boston or Michigan or where a Kentucky lake, wherever it is, they have the life they also like to live. That's what happens. So, we have a very natural kind of drop-off as we move into the shoulder season. That's very common. But because the media has to have something to talk about, and because writers have to have something to write about, and you know, I need something to talk about, too. Can I just say it? You know, where I'm doing it, too. But the truth of the matter is, we do legitimately see a drop-off. That is a real thing. I have folks right now that I have many people right now that are getting ready to go home. Wherever home is, they spent the entire season in Florida, in Naples, in Sarasota, in Boca, and they're leaving in a couple of weeks. Did they buy anything? They might not have. They didn't see what they were looking for.

[00:03:31]Did they sell their house? Maybe no. So, let's talk through that for a minute.

[00:03:36]Grab your coffee, we're going to jump into some facts. All right, before we jump into this, let me give you a quick introduction. My name is Barrett Pastor, and I've been a real estate broker for 30 years. So, hopefully I'm coming to you from a place of knowledge and experience, and I can help you navigate all things Florida real estate. Now, I'm going to say this again cuz I've only said this in one other video, and I I know there's not people that are watching every single video. I wish you were, and I appreciate you if you are.

[00:04:04]But, if you're not, you might be thinking how to jump from 27 to 30, Barrett, cuz you always say 27. Listen, I had a birthday, and I was able to calculate out that I got licensed as a real estate agent at 28. And then I had a birthday, and I became 58. So, that is not 27, that is 30. So, that's why I explained that just for those of you that are curious, yes, I'm 58. So, it is 30 years of doing real estate. So, I like to tell you what is the non-brochure living. There's all kinds of good things about Florida, you know this, you read this, you watch it on the YouTubes.

[00:04:49]There's some stuff that's not so good, too, but that Listen, don't let that deter you. That is reality. You just have to know the good with the bad so you can make a good decision. Nobody wants to get sold on anything. I don't, either. So, let me tell you this.

[00:05:04]Florida and Texas were the hottest markets hottest housing markets in the country at one point in time. Like, all through the viral years, they just went crazy.

[00:05:18]Now, we're in a cooling-off period. This is where people get confused, however.

[00:05:25]And by the way, I did look this up. You know what the actual hottest market in the country is right now in terms of moving real estate? Ohio. And what's so ironic about that is a lot of people I probably have I don't know, in the past 3 years I probably have sold 20, maybe 25 houses or condos to people from Ohio. So, it's weird. That's one of those states. The states that we see the most people from down into Southwest Florida, me personally anyway, Massachusetts, Ohio, and Michigan. Oh, and New Jersey.

[00:06:06]And New York here recently too for the last couple 2 3 5 years. It's been that as well. Just thought I'd mention that to you. But, Florida and Texas were doing fantastic.

[00:06:17]And I read an article this morning. I want to give you some facts on that article. I pulled it up here in front of me because I thought it was really interesting.

[00:06:28]So, according to Fortune magazine, and they pull four or five different references on this. So, take that for what it is. But, what they're saying is inventory is now higher than pre-2019 levels. I'm going to say yes with a caveat. And not everywhere. I say this all the time. I have folks, so many, like more than 20, that are on the fence to buy in Naples. Naples is a hot market. Naples is a balanced market.

[00:07:03]Naples is pretty well stabilized. Is it completely stable? I would not say that.

[00:07:10]But, let me tell you what. It is stabilizing. And what ends up happening in a stable market like Naples is that we had the dip, then we had the run-up, then 24 and 25, these are the years that we saw it just definitely come down by a lot in some areas. But, when that happens, it'll start to level out. Last quarter 2025, it was leveling out.

[00:07:39]Everywhere in Naples? No. Most places in Naples, yeah. Desirable places in Naples, the newer homes, beautiful amenities, maybe no golf, no golfing in the community, but everything else you could ever want, pickleball, tennis, fitness, all the things. Yeah, that is stabilizing. You do have a little bit of a teeter-totter between 1 and 3%. I say this all the time, but that's where we're sitting right now. And if we stabilize there in Naples, in the shoulder season, and through what is our low season or off-season, you'll hear that cuz it's really, really hot in Florida. So, if we stay stable, then guess what's going to happen in the winter coming forward, we're going to see it go up 1 to 3%. You watch, mark my words, unless something insane happens.

[00:08:36]Like, and it can, you know, it can. It Don't don't count that out, but if nothing crazy happens, that is what's going to happen in Naples. I put trust and believe me on this. Some of you will say, >> You don't even know what you're talking about, babe. But listen, I'm telling you, real estate is cyclical. I've been doing it long enough to watch it do this, and it runs the same pattern all the time. The key is timing. You want it when it's dancing right around here.

[00:09:07]So, in Naples, can you get a goodbye right now? Yes. Can you get a giveaway?

[00:09:12]No. Not unless there's something wrong with the property, like it backs to a main road or I don't know, it it's got it has innate problems that you can't fix. If those If that's the case, you can get a really good deal cuz nobody wanted it. Like, [snorts] it wasn't even the bridesmaid. We've already gone through season, and there's a lot of people I'm getting the phone calls, literally every day.

[00:09:38]People are panicking because they did not sell. They put it out at a stupid number. They didn't listen. They knew what You know, it's that conversation where I say to somebody, "The comps are showing that your house should sell at about $900,000.

[00:09:56]Let's price it beginning of season.

[00:09:59]Let's price it at 925, and you should sell."

[00:10:03]I love you, and I have talked, and we've made a decision to price it at 1.175.

[00:10:12]Listen, here we are. That's what's going to happen. And then, you're going to make a gigantic drop and look like you don't know where you're supposed to be priced, or you're going to take it off the market all through the summer, and you're going to come back out and give it a try again in the winter, which is fine, but you're still probably not getting that 1.175.

[00:10:36]So, it really comes down to a matter of Really, do you want to sell? How realistic do you want to be? You've got to make a decision like that. And I would just say to you, work with an agent that will be honest with you. And if you're saying, "Yeah, but I thought I was, but I don't even like my agent anymore. I don't know if they're being honest with me. They told me I could get 1.175.

[00:11:00]They They knew the comps said 900,000.

[00:11:03]Why didn't they tell me I couldn't?"

[00:11:05]A listen, ask your agent to terminate. I'm just telling you, an agent can terminate a contract. Maybe that agent, he or she will feel relieved that they gave you a number that's unrealistic, and they can't get it done, and you're calling them two, three, four times after 9:00 every single week. Maybe they're going to feel like, "Listen, I got to let Joe and SUSAN GO." THAT MIGHT HAPPEN. SO, I digress. I tell you all this because this is important to know. All right, so So, let's get back to Florida and Texas.

[00:11:42]So, those are the markets that went up the fastest. Those are also the markets that are going to correct the hardest.

[00:11:51]So again, if you're a Naples buyer, I'm not talking to you on this. This is that is not it. You know what it is? It's the one-off communities. Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, Port Charlotte.

[00:12:06]I'm going to say it even though I love it, Venice has had hard corrections.

[00:12:10]Now, here's the thing. With Venice, depending on where and how, you might have done perfectly fine, but if you bought way up at the peak, maybe not.

[00:12:22]So, there's a little bit of not this, but that in Venice right now. Those little bitty cookie cutters, um depending on what you paid for them. If you paid $400,000 for a $200,000 villa, you might have some problems. But I will say some of the HOA communities do a decent job of making sure that you have just enough to be relatively stable, let's say 5% stable. But listen, I'm I'm not about to gaslight anybody over here. There are problems in Venice as well. Again, depending on area, depending on what you bought. Sarasota's doing pretty good. Lakewood Ranch is doing very good. So, a lot of these communities, they're holding strong.

[00:13:09]Let's talk about the other coast for a minute because I don't talk about the East Coast of Florida all that often. I don't know why. I probably should, but Boca is doing fine. They're kind of like Naples in that 1 to 3% balancing market.

[00:13:25]But as you come down south, most of Miami metro, I'll just say the whole Miami metro, problems, big problems. And I think, in my opinion, a lot of that is because you either have condos that are just getting absolutely pummeled because of the new SIRS reports that we have to do, the structural engineer reports that have to be done by the HOAs, the deadline has come and gone. So, the numbers are quantified and they're big.

[00:13:54]And people, you know, that creates a problem. Because if you have really high HOAs, then generally speaking, it's going to affect your ability to get a high number for the real estate. That's just the way that it works. But as you move around that area, very problematic still. You can really get a good buy in condos in that area if you're willing to take on the risk and/or, I would say, get off the coast a little bit, get into something newer with a lot of resort style amenities, a building that's more than 3 mi off the coast. You'll be less affected by these things. But I want to I wanted to mention that on the East Coast of Florida, a lot of times people will ask me, "What would be a good spot there?" St. Johns County is stabilizing pretty strong right now. So, that's an area that took that big run-up and it did take the walk-back, but it didn't take that strong of a walk-back. So, if you're looking for something that's a little bit more diversified in age, a lot of times people will say, "The farther south you come, the more that it can tend to be a little bit aged up a decade." That tends to not be the case in St. Johns County. Why? Because the schools are really good, the workforce is good, there's some good hospital systems up there. So, it's a little bit more livable. When you've got more than one season, one season being hot and hotter, like we have in the subtropical area, it can be a little bit more livable in that regard. So, nationally, home prices are pretty flat. They're pretty flat. Let me see what we've got in terms of data. One in three major markets are declining. So, you definitely have a bifurcated market, I would say. You have winners and losers.

[00:15:53]Stay out of the losers. Listen, if we're talking about Southwest Florida, we talk about it all the time. And I'm not saying don't buy in these areas. Listen, hear me loudly on this.

[00:16:05]Venice, Port Charlotte, North Port, Punta Gorda, Cape Coral, parts of Tampa, over on the other coast, Stuart, Melbourne, New Smyrna Beach. There And then, we haven't even touched on Central Florida.

[00:16:23]All of these little cities, towns that I just mentioned, the one-offs or maybe even the two-offs, Babcock Ranch.

[00:16:32]These communities, there are good deals in there. So, when I'm saying winners and losers, and if we say that Naples are the winners and [clears throat] these other areas are the losers, guess what? If you're a buyer, timing matters in Naples because that's that is like Naples has one foot on the second step. It's getting ready to happen, I promise. Now, when I say that, do I mean it's going to take the viral run-up? Absolutely not. I'm just saying it's going to start the slower walk-up.

[00:17:05]You're going to see the 1 to 3% walk-up.

[00:17:07]You watch, it's going to happen. By winter, that's what we're going to see.

[00:17:12]Builders all over the place are increasing costs, increasing lot premiums. So, I'm telling you it's going to happen in Naples. The closer you are to the epicenter, the more likely it's going to happen. So, as you get into those one-off, two-offs, when I'm saying losers, listen, it's the sellers and the builders that are the losers. It's not the buyers. If you're the buyer in one of those communities, Katie bar the door. Go make offers. Go make offers on five properties. You If you're going to Cape Coral, we're going to be able to find you 10 homes that have beautiful Gulf access, direct Gulf access, probably in your price range. So, winners and losers, really, it it depends who you are. Do you know what I mean? If you're a seller sitting in Cape Coral with a three-bedroom, two-bath pool home backing directly to another home with no canal in between, you're in trouble. Like you you're you've got nothing but price at that point. Price and terms, you know, you can get creative with terms if you want to. But, the market is weird right now. But, do we know this market? Like, have Do we go here? Do you know what I mean? We know this market. When did we meet this market?

[00:18:32]About eight years ago or so. We 2011, we met this market. So, longer than that.

[00:18:39]But, we know this market. It is cyclical. It does this. We've seen it before. So, the good thing is we have history behind us to understand what's going to happen moving forward. So, if you're a buyer, you know what I'm what I'm trying [clears throat] to tell you here. If you're looking in the areas that are not the one-off, you have to consider, am I good with the one to three percent increase, or do I want to start to make some compromises so I can get something under contract and start living, and next winter, when I show up again from Michigan, I'm just going to put my suitcase down and all is well. I don't have [music] to be out there bidding on homes again.

[00:19:22]All right. So, as always, if I can be of help, my team and I cover the entire state of Florida. My contact information is always down below.

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