Breakout!

本站添加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:14]Good morning, good afternoon, good evening wherever you are. Welcome to the Blueprint Open. My name is Amry Ban.

[00:00:21]Today is Monday, June the 1st. We're taking a look at the E- Mini S&P. It's trending upward very nicely. We're in clear breakout.

[00:00:31]Uh we had a wick that came in. I don't really see it very well in my other flows, but we had a wick that came in that pulled us back. And now we are in a slightly upward trending. Well, it's actually pretty solid because the 50 is upward. The 20 simple moving average is upward. The anchored VWAP is well below us at 7594 and our pivot is also well below us at 7591. If per happen stance we break 7607, we've got a very likely action of pulling back into these high volume areas. As it sits right now, we look pretty good, but the overnight inventory is very long. They've been long the entire morning. Trend is up. Momentum is up on these shorter time frames. Notice, however, momentum continues to drift down as we lift. So, what does this tell us? This tells us that we are eventually going to reach a plateau. And that plateau is going to pull us back into prior support zones. I don't know where those are currently, but we'll fret about them as they get closer. Key areas to look at again are the pivot 76 7591 and then 7584.

[00:01:58]We've got a big valueary event here in terms of demand. We're sitting in a supply zone. We've been very compacted, but overnight inventory is long. This tells us that our dips could come in the morning. We've had very erratic mornings of late.

[00:02:16]They've been a bit savage, either trending very sharply up and then giving us solid pullbacks into our pivot zones and then returning to the upside. Friday was a bit sideways like that as well, but dips are buys. The line in the sand for the very active upward trending long is this 7607. So if we lose 767 coming down into 7598 and 7583 becomes much more likely and then there's another dip event there. Could you trade counter trend short? Well, yes, but you'd need to go to a five minute and then watch for all of your moving averages whoopsie to converge. Okay, you'd want to watch those to have them converge. I need to lock this thing.

[00:03:18]And so far, it's just telling us dips or buys. Right there at the 7607 is the 200 simple moving average on the 5minute.

[00:03:27]Let's go to the ENQ.

[00:03:32]That's so interesting. That wick disappeared.

[00:03:35]Aberant. All right. Clearly trending up.

[00:03:39]Very strong trend. Same sort of business. Mean reversion close to the 20 simple moving average.

[00:03:47]Does not quite get there. Starts rotating up but with less strength. Now that strength could change and it could continue to the upside. We are coming into a relatively bullish portion of the NQ, but our seasonality levels have shifted somewhat. And so, um, we've got sort of a phase shift, and I'm trying to figure out what that phase shift really means, but we'll be we'll know in just a couple of days and I will tell you. So, what are we seeing? Same sort of things. Dips or pullbacks now. And let me lock this thing before goes wonky on me with all the clicking.

[00:04:29]All right, so my candle of note is this. Look at this very strange price action right here.

[00:04:40]Dip down, big sell into the end of Friday, and then this savage bounce all the way up. So, not quite sure what the storyboard there is, but what we do notice is the Fibonacci that is governing the GlobeEx region is fairly clean. So, we will look at that for our formations. Notice how well it holds the top at 30,591.

[00:05:16]So, we're going to walk these up today if that is the case. And that's going to give us 30,629 30,665 30, 700. And these are just going up in small clips because the Gloex candle has been so low. But where is the Everybody's calling these Majino lines.

[00:05:44]We'll call it the Rubicon. So, we won't want to, you know, it's not quite the Rubicon because it's not that disastrous, but our line in the sand for clean support action in my mind appears to be 30,400.

[00:06:03]If we lose 30,400, we're going to fill in this gap formation.

[00:06:08]And, you know, we'll we'll see what happens there. Frankly, this seems very uh Oops, wrong direction.

[00:06:23]Wow. Do you see that? I'm seeing this all over the place.

[00:06:30]I am I'm seeing the strange business of these wicks coming to and fro. Good grief. operator error, folks.

[00:06:44]All right. So, we have this and what I want to do is clone it and then just duplicate. Right. We're going to roll it down a little bit so we can see where these edges are.

[00:07:02]Yep. All right. So, we can clearly see there's something going on up here. This is the second one I've seen and it's disappeared afterwards. So, I have no idea what's going on there. But that number is 30,760.

[00:07:19]All right. So, looks good. Upward trending dips or buys. And that dip at 30,350 that may or may not be our sport zone.

[00:07:35]The deeper edge is where I suspect we are going to have a bounce and that is around 30,280.

[00:07:42]In the meantime, we're just treading water. Inventory is still basically long in the overnight. Lots of trend, lots of momentum. Daily formations doing the same thing. A little bit of negative traction. Let's go to the YM.

[00:08:00]Very solid uptrend, holding the formations really well. The YM is continuing to move upward. I hear people say all the time, nobody looks at the YM. Well, that might be true for American traders, but as you know, for foreign traders, because I've told you many times, this is not the case. They look here, especially the not so sophisticated trader who wants exposure to US markets. They have lots of models that say, "Listen, you just need to buy the Dow." Okay. So, what are we staring down? We just broke up over this line.

[00:08:36]The line we're the Fibonacci we're drawing today comes from Friday's 9:30 candle. So the market on open candle gives us our upward pressure event.

[00:08:46]We have an upward 20, an upward VWAP, an upward 50, a flatish 200, but sharp upward motion. Everything looks very solid to the upside. Dips or buys. So, where's that line in the sand for this chart? Because it's so strong.

[00:09:09]My thought is that 51,100 or so, maybe 50,180 is the floor here in the formation. And so if we lose that area, if we choose to buy a dip there and it slips down, we'd need about 50 points of risk. All right? So, put that in your uh risk parameters before you decide your size because if it does lose that, it could chop around this zone all the way down to 51,000. But you 51,70. But you don't really want to do that. You want to look at this halfway spot, see if it resolves. For me, I like letting the chart go, seeing if it fails, and then recapturing my moving average. That makes it nice and easy.

[00:10:05]And you know, the wind is at your back for upside pressure. In general, we continue to move to the north.

[00:10:14]We've had very messy opens. Look at this. This is Thursday's open. Super messy. Friday's open.

[00:10:23]Not as messy, but certainly big wicks on either side before breaking to the north and moving forward. Notice how different this looks from the ES chart. Very, very different. Lots of motion, lots of movement into US markets. We are clearly seeing that. So, dips or buys upward formations 52,400 50 excuse me 51,400 51,530 and then 51,660.

[00:11:03]That's our rotation for the day.

[00:11:06]Inventory is long pre-market. They'll probably unwind a little bit. I'm going to look for the deeper dips to be buying, right? If it comes into the pivot at 50,900 950 or so, I would consider that a very nice buying opportunity, particularly because there's so much demand there.

[00:11:27]Let's go to Bitcoin.

[00:11:32]So, uh, Bitcoin not moving in market directions. I think this probably makes the Bitcoiners a bit nervous, but they're likely holding the trend line.

[00:11:47]And so where is that? That's a test of about 70,000. They are going to try and buy it here, but with the steepness of momentum and the 50 simple moving average above along with the 20, it tells me that the bounces are likely to be sell zones. So you can trade both sides sitting here. Now what would I do?

[00:12:12]Well, I like to follow trend and momentum. And both of those are down currently. So I'm going to look for the bounces to give me selling opportunities. So what is price action telling me here? Price actions telling me I've got a resistance line at 73,100 and then 73,400, right? The VWAP is not I mean that's hundreds points away. So that's 73,500 or so, right? And so the bounces up there could be sell zones. Could you trade it to the upside? Yes, you definitely could. Is it forming a double bottom here?

[00:13:03]It's hard to say with this momentum. You could try it. But if it breaks 72,675, maybe give yourself another 100 points to the downside. If it breaks 76 72,570, this is probably not going to be bullish. Okay, it there's just too much negative pressure sitting here. All the bounces are sell or sell zones on every single chart really.

[00:13:35]Let's go to oil.

[00:13:39]So, oil is bouncing. I thought it would come into 85. It held $86.40.

[00:13:46]That also happens to be uh the pivot a support pivot of prior days. The actual pivot for today is $87.70.

[00:13:58]We are trending upwards in price.

[00:14:02]The 20 is up but generally flat. The 50 is up but generally flat. And then the 200 is down to flat. There's a lot of sideways pressure here, but dips also appear to be buy zones. Could you sell this formation here? Yes, but you'd want for it to fail and then bounce to look above and then fail again. JJ calls it the look above and fail. But it would be the movement down and then the look above that fails.

[00:14:41]Okay? not a brand new high that fails.

[00:14:44]Although you could also trade that, it just might not give you as much traction, right? So, what are the ledges and which which area is most important to us today? Well, in my mind, let's let's hang on. Let's check this Fibonacci. In my mind, it is the 11:00 a.m. candle. A lot of very interesting motion at 11:00 a.m. A lot of interesting motion at 11:00 a.m. What we are seeing is that we are caught in the 10:00 a.m. candle from Thursday.

[00:15:23]That's our wide zone that we're caught in. Breaking out above $9130 or so could easily give us more upside pressure. I doubt it, but my thought is this buying motion has been pretty solid. So, dips going to come in and see the buy. Where's that line that says, "Hey, if it dips lower than here, you got a problem." And so, the closest line for that would be one of our first pivot resistance lines, which is $9010.

[00:16:07]If it dips below there, I I would be careful. This is the place that I would say let it fade and then bounce, look above, but not be able to hold the 20, the VWAP, and the 200. That would be a sign that tell me it would come down into the edge of value area low.

[00:16:29]Okay.

[00:16:31]And that number is $88.76.

[00:16:35]Could it come in a little further? It could. But so watch those levels. The pivot is well below us at 8770.

[00:16:49]Let's take a look at gold.

[00:16:53]All right. Gold's also in a sideways pocket.

[00:16:58]Right. This uh typical volume by time is all yellow here because we've moved to a new contract.

[00:17:06]And what we are seeing is that in this new contract, the 11:00 a.m. candlestick is very important. It's also peak from Friday.

[00:17:18]It breaks down right there and just collapses beautifully. Look at where it bounces right at the 200. It's really incredible. I wonder.

[00:17:38]Let's see what that 200 looks like.

[00:17:43]Yeah, right at the 200. This exponential moving average is very interesting. I think I'm going to hide this for now.

[00:17:55]Let's open this up and hide that. I don't want too much stuff going on here.

[00:18:01]We've already got a zillion things going on. All right. So, what do we want to stare down? We bounced off of the 200 simple moving average. That number is 4520. It's also value area low. I would expect it to try to hit value area high.

[00:18:17]There are a few people that are saying that gold and the market should move in the same direction.

[00:18:25]You know, maybe so, maybe no. I I I don't have a strong opinion on that. I do believe that gold easily continues to fade because folks are selling it to pay bills. And if I am wrong, we will extend the draft above $4628.

[00:18:46]So what do we expect this one to do? Can we take a long from here? Well, we could take a long from 4537. So ideally we want a bottoming formation that looks like this. A bounce above and then a pullback that holds. Okay. So this would be the look below and fail. Right? And so this look below and fail. We'd want to see the same sort of structure here.

[00:19:13]We'd want to see look below, make a higher low, and then fail. But right now we've got the VWAP and the 20. Momentum is marketkedly down. Notice how momentum tells us we've got a problem up here.

[00:19:29]Here's the first high. Here's the next high. Momentum is still cresting higher.

[00:19:34]And then for the next high, momentum is all the way down here. So it's telling us, listen, trend is your friend.

[00:19:42]So our pullbacks into trend, if they still hold, then this line is not important.

[00:19:50]It becomes important down here. So for me at the break of this line, we've got some problems. Yes, it comes negative.

[00:19:57]So could we chop around between all the moving averages that were staring down and uh just sit around here in price?

[00:20:06]Yes. But I expect this kind of structure, right? So we want to look for the pull back down into the higher lows and then the rise to the north.

[00:20:18]Otherwise, this is a short right here at 4540.

[00:20:24]Let's finally take a look at SPY.

[00:20:27]SPY trending up really well. Momentum, it's got some nasty drifts on it, but the trend is telling us that our dips are buys. And this line, I think it still holds.

[00:20:43]Let's Let's remove it. And let's put let's put this one in.

[00:20:53]So, what are we staring down? Breakout brand new highs 753 moving all the way up into 760.

[00:21:03]That's where the call wall is today at 760. So, I would not be surprised to see that. Would not be surprised at all.

[00:21:11]very big market on close candlestick structurally speaking on Friday. Let's draw that out.

[00:21:21]I think I'm looking at that correctly.

[00:21:24]Yes, indeed.

[00:21:26]It had pretty nice bottom, fell in the aftermarket, and then immediately began to bounce. this very interesting just a savage gap up into the 4:00 a.m. and you know we're off to the races. What's the line in the sand today intraday? If you are buying spy, it's got to hold 757. So if it comes in there and you go, okay, I'm buying a long, I'm going to take it long, buy an option, whatever you want to do. If it starts moving into this area, get out and try again. The clean area to me seems to be where the 50 is, where the pivot is, where uh another gamma wall is, and that is all around 756 or so. I like that area for a buy zone.

[00:22:28]If it continues to break to the north, it should easily head to 760.

[00:22:35]The market continues to trend into the updraft. All right? So, it's a buy zone.

[00:22:45]Just be careful at the open and don't get washed out in these nasty opens.

[00:22:50]Okay?

[00:22:53]If we lose 757, there's a general gap fill event at 756 and then lots of demand here until 7:54.

[00:23:03]Okay, everybody, take care. I'll see you on the streams.

[00:23:08]Remember, please hit like and subscribe for me. Thank you so much. Okay, let's go.