Dana Long PHD - Deep Dives Ripple XRP's Flawed MATH + ALPHA & Charts! #xrp

追加: 2026-05-20

[00:00:00]Hey guys, Uncle Ray. Welcome to another episode of the Crypto Bellweather. The goal of this channel is to give you the information you need to make informed decisions. And guys, in this video, we're going to dive into a lot of alpha.

[00:00:16]And I promise you, if you don't understand what I'm going to share with you, the odds of you making money in crypto is slim to none. and it's going to be mainly luck. But I believe the reverse is true if you do understand what I want to share with you. And in this video, we're going to talk briefly about the two most important things in all of crypto. That is tokconomics and how a altcoin is structured. That's the most important thing. And they kind of tie in together. [snorts] So, I'm going to give you some alpha and then we're going to talk about a handful of things about XRP. And I want to introduce you to a forensic um economist who wrote a book, The Token Trap. And guys, he's got a video coming up about XRP. That's what I want to talk about mainly and point you in that direction so when it comes out, you can uh know where to find it. But a lot of what he talks about, guys, it just lets you understand what you hold. If you don't understand what you hold, guys, you're going to get wrecked. And I'm here to tell you, I do deep dives every single days, hours and hours and hours.

[00:01:35]And about 90%, literally 90% of what you hear is just hype or a spin or flatout misinformation and lies. Period. No wonder 90% of people lose money. We want to change that. Now, before we dive into it, I just want to talk about structure real quick, guys. This is a metaphor.

[00:01:59]Now, imagine this because everything else is noise. If you don't understand this about your altcoin, imagine me and you start a business and I'm going to put millions and millions of dollars into that business.

[00:02:14]And you get 1% of the net profit. And you're like, "Wow, this business is going to be huge. Probably going to be a billion dollar business. I get 1% of the profits. Man, I'll be a millionaire over and over and over." Well, think about this. I said net profits.

[00:02:36]And if you know much about big business, most big businesses don't really make a profit. They make an immense amount of profit, but then they do all the write offs and they want to get it close to zero. So imagine that you are all excited. you working in the company and you own you get 1% of the net profits and we make our first we have our first billion dollar year. You don't even get a check cuz you don't understand what you hold, what you partnered in. Now, conversely, what if you partnered and you get 1% of the gross profit?

[00:03:18]Wow, you would be a millionaire.

[00:03:23]over and over every time we post earnings, right? And then imagine if you got like 10% of the gross profits and then you got a bonus and then 1% or your gross percent goes up every single year. See it? So the point about that is guys if your company your structure contract doesn't acrue value to you it doesn't matter doesn't matter if I get buy a thousand liter jets and a thousand homes around the world and my company becomes the next Microsoft you're like my god I'm partner in Microsoft I've been there for 20 years raised flying all over the world spending money left and right. One of he's on Forbes list.

[00:04:21]Well guys, you signed up for a bad structure. That's what we want to talk about. Now guys, we're doing pretty good right now. The market's up today, starting a week, but in my opinion, we're still in the bare market. And tokens with bad tokconomics are going to still crash because you're going to keep getting dumped on. Now check this out guys. This happens every single day and I share and the reason I share shorting is because it's all part of the market structure. Once you understand what I'm trying to convey to you, you'll understand why you dang sure don't huddle altcoins. And if you are going to buy an altcoin with bad tokconomics, they can still pump. They can rip. But when they do, if you don't take profits, you'll become the profits.

[00:05:15]Now, look at this A1A.

[00:05:17]I said if uh the odds are it's going to get into this channel, and if it breaks out of that channel, it's going to be a uh fake out. That's our short alert.

[00:05:27]Look, guys. So, we've already shorted it over and over back here. And then all of a sudden, a month later, weeks later, it pumps. Look at that. massively.

[00:05:40]Boom. Short alert drops 45% like that. Why? Because that's just exit liquidity. But think about all those people that FOMOed in. That's why I try to get you to understand what you hold.

[00:05:54]Just like last week when the Clarity Act, I did this video and I talked about how all the people are pumping XRP and all the ISO tokens. Correct me if I'm wrong. Everyone, you're getting a Lambo.

[00:06:07]Here comes your Lambo. I said it's a sell the news event. We put a short alert in our inner circle and I said if it breaks in my inner circle post I said this right here is a short squeeze. It just broke 150. That's when we went in.

[00:06:25]Look at that. Guys, you got to understand the game. And guys, this isn't FUD. I don't care what you buy. Never never learn to short.

[00:06:34]Always hodddle. Doesn't matter to me.

[00:06:36]But guys, I'm trying to give you an education that if you get it, once you b that once that light goes off, I promise you guys, you'll get out of that 90% that lose money and you'll stop round tripping it and you'll get excited about crypto again. If you want to listen to those people are just going to sell you FOMO and hype and don't have a clue about what's important, man, I can't help you. Now, hear me out on this. This is some really good information. Now, this is about Filecoin, but it's relevant to 99.9% of altcoins. Hear me out guys and stay with me.

[00:07:07]>> We look at the supply of Firecoin tokens over time. This is just an example, but it's a very representative example. The supply over time expands. And that's because early investors and the team, insiders and marketing, they get new token allocation over time. And when the supply grows quicker than the demand, then of course the price has to come down. And this is what typically happens for the vast majority of all coins. Here is the statistic for the entire market.

[00:07:38]This is the weekly unlocks of the altcoin market. That's what's been tracked by tokconomist.ai.

[00:07:45]On average, per week, we see hundreds of millions worth of unlocks and the mark.

[00:07:51]>> Now, think about that guys. If you don't understand that, you don't really have an a chance because you don't know what you hold.

[00:08:01]Now, think about it, guys. your favorite altcoin that gets news every single day taking over the world da da da da da but yet not even does it not go up it it goes down how is that because of the structure which is what I'm trying to share with you but on that chart guys that he showed you think about this think about this right now no retails here people are not rushing into crypto we're basically trading amongst oursel And every day, every day, every week, millions and if not billions of dollars have to be brought into the market just to keep the price the same from people dumping.

[00:08:53]You have to understand that. And if you do, let me show you something. Now, this is about XLM. And guys, I'm here to tell you, I will own XLM again and XRP and HAR and Link. Those are going to be some of my horses. I don't think the bottom's here yet. I've been saying that for seven months. I get a lot of heat. Been right for seven months.

[00:09:20]And anyone been stacking that whole time and just going down, down, down. But see guys, this is based on probabilities and understanding what you hold and understanding how XLM was structured and the tokconomics. Now look at this guys.

[00:09:35]It's really this simple.

[00:09:38]Lifechanging games first cycle if you were smart enough to take profits. Most people weren't because it's going to change the world. Next cycle, 2021.

[00:09:49]Pretty not life-changing probably, but pretty damn good. If you took profits, most people didn't. Why? It's going to change the world. It didn't even take out its old all-time high. The last cycle, same thing. But do you notice it keeps going down and down? But let me show you something.

[00:10:10]This is the market cap. It's made a new all-time high every cycle. See, that's delilution. If it had good tokconomics, people would have made life-changing gains every cycle. So, it really doesn't matter what happens to XLM, guys. Right here, you got about 16 billion worth.

[00:10:34]Right here, you got about 20 billion.

[00:10:36]Right here, about 24 billion. And probably by the end of the next cycle, this cycle, you're looking at about 39 billion.

[00:10:48]So that's new money basically that's got to come in to make up the difference. You got to have twice as many people buying with the same amount of money to make a new all-time high. Twice as many. Now think about this. the smart money, which is the big money, they're gonna look at this chart and go, "Why in the hell would I buy this thing? Oh, it's gonna take over the world." Duh.

[00:11:18]They're going to go eight years. This is this called a a a bare market. It's been in a a a historical bare market from the day one.

[00:11:29]Day one. See, guys, you don't measure the bottom. You measure the top.

[00:11:36]All right. I don't want to get on my high horse. Let's get into some other stuff. Let's get into the XRP stuff. And bear with me, guys. And just hear me out. Don't get your panties in a wide. I promise you, you have to know what you hold. And you're being lied to. Now, check this out. You remember how a couple months ago, the first year, everybody, woo! See, I told you Goldman Sachs is buying XRP. All the banks are buying XRP. It's a flatout lie. It was a lie then.

[00:12:06]And it's even more of a lie now guys.

[00:12:09]Owning the ETF is not the same as owning XRP. Goldman Sachs never had a big fat bag sitting over in the corner of XRP.

[00:12:21]They bought shares in the ETF now, but because they're down roughly about 60% because they started stacking in February according to when they filed their uh 13F. [snorts] And then what just happened? Goldman Sachs completely exited its XRP related exchange traded funds, dumped their entire what what they had left of their 154 million. That's approximately somewhere around 50 or 60% down.

[00:13:00]Now, see, people don't even uh want to tell you the truth, guys. It's not fo How do you get mad at me when I'm just explaining to you what an ETF is?

[00:13:13]But yet someone tells you it's so bullish. How's it bullish? They didn't buy XRP. No one's owning XRP. Nobody. No banks own XRP. They use it all the time.

[00:13:26]So what doesn't mean anything when you got a 100red billion tokens and you can use them over and over and over. All right. Now, I know people are not going to want to hear this, and it's so funny when you point out a fact. People are going to want to say, "Oh, you're a Bitcoin maxi, man. I can't be further from the truth, but look at this, guys.

[00:13:47]This is XRP against Bitcoin." I want you, this is just a fact. See, I like probabilities.

[00:13:54]I don't like flipping a coin. I'm not a gambler. I'm a DJ at times, but with a small percent of my portfolio.

[00:14:03]That's why when people go, "Oh, you you bought this. I know you got wrecked."

[00:14:07]Okay, I I wrecked 1% of my portfolio.

[00:14:10]What's your point? But with your big money, you buy Bitcoin and Ethereum and Salana and Canton Network. Good projects, solid projects. But look, when they say everything bleeds against Bitcoin, think about this guys. This is just a fact.

[00:14:29]Cuz I see people cutting paste. They want to go, "Well, if you bought it here and you sold it there, you did better."

[00:14:35]Well, guys, there's never been a time in the history of XRP and Bitcoin, you would rather have bought XRP if you didn't sell, right? If you bought it way back in the day, sell it, sell it, sell it, sell it, sell it, sell it. But look, this is the entire last cycle.

[00:15:01]didn't do anything against Bitcoin.

[00:15:03]Barely ma made it worth the risk. Got 10 times the risk. But look at that, guys.

[00:15:12]Bitcoin, you want to at least compare everything to Bitcoin for whatever that's worth. But most people, here's what they tell you. Look at this. Eight years. Oh, it's going to go not only if up here, which is probably never going to happen. It may. Probabilities are against you. I can't wait to short it from there. I think it's realistic with the hype and the FOMO.

[00:15:34]XRP might might push toward $4 and somehow someway it breaks $4. Be the biggest short I ever put on in my life.

[00:15:43]But see, they keep telling you it's going to be all these massive gains.

[00:15:47]It's going to overtake Bitcoin. It's going to overtake all the stocks combined. All that crazy stuff. Now, check this out, guys. This is the simplest way anyone can understand tokconomics. This is good tokconomics. See, Bitcoin is literally deflationary.

[00:16:05]They've already bought up, last I checked, seven years of the pre of the mind Bitcoin. They've already bought it up.

[00:16:16]So, for the next seven years, Bitcoin is going to be deflationary. Look at that.

[00:16:21]There's barely any left and none's coming out. None.

[00:16:27]Cuz it's already bought up in advance.

[00:16:29]They've There's that far in advance.

[00:16:32]It's been the the buying's been outpacing the production of ex of of Bitcoin. Now, look at the difference.

[00:16:42]See, this is like Ripple. Look at it's just constantly coming out. Hundreds of millions a month. And people are like, "Oh, we're about to have a supply shock." Guys, see that? That that's the stuff that irritates me.

[00:16:59]A monkey could see this. And I say that with love. A third grader can understand this. Which one's more going to have a supply shock? Oh, it's going to be XRP.

[00:17:11]Do you understand? That's the opposite of a supply shock. And basically, guys, you got to look at it like this. XRP is basically unlimited supply no matter what people tell you. A 100red billion and and you got uh a billion a 100 million a 100 mill billion and 100,000 transactions per XRP roughly. That's quadrillions quadrillions.

[00:17:38]All right, look at this guys. If you don't see and if you don't understand that picture, you'll fall for this stupidity.

[00:17:45]And again, said with love, $10,000 XRP, guys, to put it in context, if everyone in the world, everyone sold everything they had and bought XRP, wouldn't even be as valuable as $10,000 XRP. If we throw in every piece of gold that's ever been pulled out of the earth, combine it with that, still won't equal $10,000 XRP. If we take every dollar of the world's GDP, every dollar produced this year around the world and added to gold, all the gold has ever been created and everyone's wealth around the world, we don't still do not get $10,000 XRP.

[00:18:29]Now, think about that. And anyone that would ever tell you that is either bizarly uneducated or they're just dishonest as hell. But either way, guys, be careful who you listen to. And if you prove me wrong, have at it. And those same people keep telling you that it all the money is going to run. All the money. Well, guys, if you do any nonbiased research, this is really exactly what we're seeing right now. The Ken network's been around for 10 years and then just lost launched its token and has already tokenized 100x more than XRPPL. It moves more money on its ledger in a month than XRPPL has in its lifetime.

[00:19:18]Its dominance and its ecosystem is exploding every day. No one's building on the XRPL. No one if you compare it's not even funny but look at this Canton is guys it is the new global financial network it's the infrastructure now it's going to be part of it with Swift and you know other entities but I'm here to tell you if you compare guys you'll start to see a lot all the lies why is it so far behind this is literally look at this XR RP is going to take over the world. 200817.

[00:20:00]Oh my god. Just give me the 2021. Taking over the world. 2025.

[00:20:06]Building will be done soon. 2026. Oh, Jake Claver's wrong again. Give me the 2030.

[00:20:13]See guys, every bit of this just shows you how disingenuous people are. Once you understand it, you can't unsee it. Once you once you see it, you can't unsee it. Now, let's get into what I really, really wanted to share with you guys. All right, this gu is called Dana. His name is Dana Love, PhD. He wrote the book The Token Trap.

[00:20:36]Guys, if you go to his YouTube channel, it's immense, immense what you can learn from this man. Now, he's nonbiased. He could care less what you do. I mean, think about what he does for a living, guys. He goes around the globe with governments and major corporations and he basically lets them understand the infrastructure that either they are a part of or that they need to create.

[00:21:07]He's bizarly intelligent. And some people go, "Oh, well, he's just going to say all this negative stuff to sell a book." Guys, the book sells for like $5 on Amazon.

[00:21:18]The man's wealthy, I'm sure.

[00:21:21]See, that's the funny thing about crypto is you tell people the truth, they tell you you don't know what you're talking about, but they don't want to go dig in.

[00:21:28]Guys, go see if this is a lie. Go talk to someone that won't lie to you.

[00:21:35]How do you get a supply shock out of that? It's bizarre. Now, let me let you hear something that he says.

[00:21:43]We're almost done, guys. I had just written a book about the crypto industry that took a hard look at the 14 years I've spent in it. It's not pretty. We got taken advantage of and it's still happening.

[00:21:58]So, I decided to put it all on camera without a production team, without a media company, without a PR handler and say the system that extracted money from retail investors in crypto is not a bug.

[00:22:13]It's a feature of their system.

[00:22:15]>> That's what I've been talking about, guys. It's a feature. Gets back to that metaphor.

[00:22:23]When these altcoins, I just had one called Riz, one of the people in my inner circle sent me a text said, "Ray, this is part of it's the bridge to the Canton network.

[00:22:37]Sexy story. Sounds great." Right off the bat, I can just took me three seconds to look at the tokconomics. I said there it's It's not a money maker. And then I talked I did a deep dive with Grock. I said, explain everything it does and everything it is. it it's a decent project, but it has no way, shape, or form to make crypto or altcoin investors money outside of pure speculation. Now, if it caught on fire and just took over the adoption, which there's no reason for it to, it has competition and you can just buy Canton.

[00:23:21]It could turn into a decent investment.

[00:23:24]Could a would a should. I don't do that.

[00:23:25]The probabilities are it's going to pump and then it's going to dump which it already has, which it's a feature.

[00:23:35]Even if it disappears tomorrow, the founders, the early investors have already made millions. Maybe they want to make billions, but it's already been a success. See, that's what you have to understand, guys. Where does the money go? Where's the value, guys? I used to be a commodity trader. A 2x4 might pump like it did in COVID.

[00:24:03]Literally, it went up like a 5x. And if you would have sold your big supply of lumber, okay, there you go. But if you hodddled it, it all came back down. Not all the way back down, but came back down 90%.

[00:24:19]But imagine the people that take their 2x4, they build houses. Well, they can turn that $5 2x4 into a $30 bill, maybe a $300 bill. See, that's the difference of owning an altcoin and being the person that structured it to build their company or to build their foundation or to dump on you. You got to understand that and know what you hold. Now, listen to this right here. This is about XRP.

[00:24:48]He's going to do a major deep dive and I highly recommend everyone watch it.

[00:24:53]Listen to this.

[00:24:55]>> In one single quarter, retail bought the story, so retail bought the token.

[00:25:02]Retail holders sat underwater for three and a half years. Over that time, institutional investors bought into Ripple Labs, but they did not buy XRP.

[00:25:13]They bought equity in the company that controls the XRP at a $10 billion valuation in 2019.

[00:25:20]Do you think they paid retail price?

[00:25:24]Then in November 2024, the election hit and XRP surged 364% in a matter of weeks. Retail cheered and Ripple Labs kept selling their token every month like clockwork.

[00:25:41]See guys, it's not just me.

[00:25:44]It's just the truth. And once you understand what you hold, you'll you'll you'll start to make some money in crypto. Not trying to talk you out of buying XRP. I will can't wait to stack it some more. It's a no-brainer.

[00:26:01]But if you think it's going to hit a new all-time high, which is possible, but it's not going to make life-changing gains, it's not ever going to get to $10 or $100 or stupid numbers like the most uneducated people or the most dishonest people in crypto will tell you $10,000 is never going to have a $50,000 buyback from our government. How can someone be so stupid? I don't care what you do for a living. No one can be that stupid. I say that with love. But let's look at the chart, guys.

[00:26:37]And I highly recommend guys, go to his channel, subscribe, start educating yourself way more than XRP. But now look, here's the chart. And I've done I put this channel down here months ago, and I said the odds are it's going to get in this channel. I'm I'm hoping it's going to get toward the lower line, but guys, it's already gotten into the channel. It just bounced.

[00:27:03]But I believe that we're still in the bare market. We know for sure Ripple's going to dump faster and harder than there's going to be buyers.

[00:27:15]And the odds are it's going to get down in here. So hopefully it's going to at least go test the $1 and maybe get down.

[00:27:24]And I'm thinking 77, something like that. So when it gets to a dollar, I'm going to start stacking.

[00:27:33]And hey guys, so what? If I miss it.

[00:27:36]Wow. Darn. I'm only trying to catch like a two or 3x cuz if I buy it at a dollar, I'm going to sell it as it approaches $3.

[00:27:47]I believe it's probably going to go over $3, but I'd rather untie that money, put it back to work. So, if I turn like, you know, 10, 20,000 into 30 or 60,000, move on. Don't want to hodddle and risk all the risk of people understanding what they hold and someone come out and announce that people actually want to listen to. Let me explain toomomics to you people. And then they realize, wait a minute, this is literally just a token that acrru value to Ripple. I don't want to be part of their ATM. I just made a 2 or 3x. Now I can short the heck out of it just like we did all up through here.

[00:28:30]All guys, I put on I bet I put on 750 trades, mostly short between the election and about a month after Trump actually went into office. We shorted all the time. It's a no-brainer, guys, because here's the law. I've said this a thousand times.

[00:28:50]The only guarantee rule that we have, the only guarantee, Think about this, guys. Why would you fight this guarantee? Because it's a fact. The only guarantee we have in crypto is that if a altcoin has bad tokconomics, it cannot and will not maintain a pump. And in the bare market, it's guaranteed to crash.

[00:29:10]That's just a a a fact. It's a law of crypto. It's never not happening with 4 million tokens in 14 years. So, let's start there, right? So, why would you go against it? Learn to make money, guys.

[00:29:26]Learn to short or at least learn to buy the bottom and like I plan to do on XLM.

[00:29:34]This is what I think. Look, guys, people talking about this V-shaped recovery.

[00:29:38]Look at this. Why would you think it's going to be a Vshape? The odds are once we get to the bottom, wherever that bottom is, and when I drew that line, I don't know why the line disappeared, I think that's about where we're going to go. We're going to go a little lower and then we're going to probably go sideways for months and then before the cycle's over, it's probably going to go up uh close to somewhere in there. But there's no reason with the increased supply again. We got to go find double the money to get the same price.

[00:30:17]We got to create double the money to get back to the old all-time high. Once you understand that, guys, you're on to something. Now, if you need some help with your portfolio, guys, or if you want to learn the short, reach out. I have two different courses. They come with Zoom calls with me. uh we go through your portfolio, I answer any questions about shorting and in both courses I throw in five months in my inner circle and in my inner circle I give you uh short alerts and I also give you things that I'm doing. I have what I call a red light, green light, yellow light and it gives you a heads up so you won't fall for the FOMO or the FUD. It tells you what I'm doing. And believe me guys, I hate to say it, but I've haven't told anyone that I'm buying anything outside of Bitcoin and Canton for the last seven months. Well, yeah, it may sound boring, but the people that have bought pretty much anything in the last seven months regret it. They're already losing money.

[00:31:22]And that's why these courses I think will pay for themselves a thousand times over through the the course of your um investment life. I truly do guys. It's as low as I can make without and justify my time. So if you have an interest, reach out. I'll pin my email in the description and in the comments. Now that being said, guys, whether you take me up on any of this or not, do yourself a favor. Start doing some nonbiased research. Go see if this is true. Go compare.

[00:32:00]Go compare what arc the new layer one for circle's doing. Go compare what count's doing. Go compare their ledgers.

[00:32:10]Go compare how much money they make. Go compare their instant finality, their acred value, their ecosystems.

[00:32:20]XRP doesn't win anything that's relevant, not a thing.

[00:32:26]The bridge token of the world, guys.

[00:32:28]Canon or ARC don't even need a bridge token. Kanton will have the most liquidity in the entire world. How do I know that? Because it's tokenizing the repo market. That is the world's liquidity. No one ever tells you that, but that is a fact. Ask Grock. Ask anyone that understands it, right? It's like the reverse carry trade. You know, people like Jay Claver tell you, "Oh, when when this happens and oil spikes, oh my god, XRP is going to change the world."

[00:33:02][laughter] All right, I don't even want to get started, guys. The car trade will do nothing for XRP but crash. It just like oil has nothing to do with XRP. Nothing.

[00:33:14]And how that's FUD is beyond me. All right, trying not to get on my high horse, guys. Reach out if you need some help. Hit the like button. Let me know what you think in the comments section.

[00:33:23]But either way, guys, come back. Be part of this community. We're going to get you in a group that actually makes money. All right, guys. Take care.