Blow-Off Top? Trader Warns Next Move Might ‘Devastate’ Investors | Chris Vermeulen

Added: 2026-05-03

[00:00:00]What I say longterm is I'm I'm bearish.

[00:00:02]I do believe we're coming into a huge market correction and it's going to devastate most investors. We are we're long the S&P 500. We're long the NASDAQ.

[00:00:09]Gold and silver trade sideways for a year or two or three. Bitcoin, as I we showed earlier here, it's stairstepping its way down. It has a bearish chart pattern. By the end of this year, I think real estate pricing is going to be sharply lower. Futures, as you said, I I blew up two trading accounts. They are very leveraged. You can make a ton of money, but you can also lose it. It's much easier to lose it.

[00:00:30]>> It's Thursday, April 30th, and Chris Vermulan joins us once more. He is the chief market strategist at the technical traders.com. And Chris, good morning.

[00:00:39]Welcome back to the show. It looks like uh stocks are up today on the back of strong earnings results from most of the tech companies reporting earnings. Uh today we're talking about uh Google and um and a few others. Meta actually missed some expectations, which is why it dropped 10%. Uh we can talk about the tech space, we can talk about AI, and we'll talk about gold, silver, Bitcoin, and real estate. Welcome back, Chris.

[00:01:03]>> Hey, thanks for having me, David. Always a pleasure.

[00:01:05]>> Okay, so earnings season is underway.

[00:01:07]About 44% of the S&P 500's companies are reporting earnings this week. Just today, this morning, I mentioned several tech companies reported. Google uh went up 7% on good news. Meta dropped 10% as they missed supposedly capex expectations as well as user growth. And they said that uh part of the drag on user growth was due to internet disruptions in Iran. Anyway, the point is um I know you don't perhaps trade on earnings. That's not what you do. Uh or maybe maybe you do. Um let me know if I'm wrong. Um but generally speaking, per your trading style, how do you navigate earning season? It's very volatile. It's very unpredictable if you're not following um the fundamentals of every single big stock. And you know, it moves markets.

[00:01:56]>> Yeah, for sure. Well, I mean, there's a couple ways you can look at the markets there. Well, there's two core ways, I think. One way is you follow price and momentum, money flows, and sentiment, which is reading the charts, reading the market itself, or you follow fundamentals and news, which is all over the place. It's like trying to run through a landmine. uh field, right? And and so I stick with what the price charts are saying, what the sentiment, where the money flows are going. So what happens around earning season is we do see increased volatility.

[00:02:28]It does increase risk a little bit just because things can bounce around a bit more as we've seen over the past really 24 hours. Uh but overall, we just continue to trade as normal. It really doesn't change the game. It just tells us we should have some pops and drops in pre and postmarket hours and the market naturally is going to stick with its underlying trend. If the trend is up, any any bad news usually is going to get absorbed by buying pressure or buying uh buyers and uh any good news usually kind of gets bought up and actually in some cases like today we get see a little bit of selling on good news and and that's what I think we've seen over the last little bit. Uh you when we look at the markets we've kind of got to buy the rumor, sell the news. I think we've seen the big techs take off. We've had a smoking huge rally in the NASDAQ. And finally, I think investors were thinking there's going to be good earnings. We got good earnings in general across the board. And we saw a big bout of selling.

[00:03:21]I mean, we saw the NASDAQ fall from the open this morning. It fell uh 1.2% in very quickly on heavy volume. So, there's a lot of people locking in profits on the good news. And that's typical. That's normal. They buy the rumor, the good news comes out, they sell into it, and now the markets are are trying to stabilize. So, I like the markets here. I really do like the equities market still.

[00:03:42]>> Last time you were on the show two weeks ago, you were long equities. Are you still long today?

[00:03:46]>> We are. We're long the S&P 500. We're long the NASDAQ. And uh very close to hitting hitting a key target on the NASDAQ potentially today or tomorrow. Uh we've got a position on in QQQ, which is uh a 10% gain is where that target is set. We're just a fraction of a po point away. And our other strategy, our band strategy, which is the best asset now, trades trades the 2x, which is about a 20% uh move. We're up on that at at this point. So, it's pretty exciting. And I think you need to be long equities. I I think, you know, looking at all the different asset classes, equities is the only one that's actually standing out.

[00:04:18]Hence the reason we are long it. We find out where the money's flowing. We move into the best asset, which are equities, and uh we have different strategies on how to attack attack that based on how you want to trade equities. Can you pull up a chart of the S&P 500 and we'll go over your key levels that you're watching also on the QQQ as well. I think this way you have to explain to some people who think you're a perma bear why you're long equities right now or you think you should be long equities right now. Doesn't really >> compute if you're a perma bear but you're still long. How does that make sense?

[00:04:47]>> Yeah. So I I think the key you know it's just like I brought this up with you with you with you before is like it's kind of like my daughter's going through Young Drivers which is you learn to drive. You have to be a defensive driver. You've got to constantly be checking the mirrors. You got to know that there's if there's something around you at any given time. So, if something jumps out and you swerve, you already have been checking. You're like, there there shouldn't be anybody over there.

[00:05:09]And so, I look at the markets from that perspective. I'm always looking for what is wrong, where could things, how could things break down, what's the worst case scenario? And you know, based on what has been unfolding, you know, from a macro standpoint where we see precious metals going ballistic, we see wars cracking out, we've got oil skyrocketing, energy stocks hitting all-time highs. Uh we've got the US dollar building a base there. We've got sector rotation. One month one sector is on fire, the next month or the next week, it's, you know, goes from the best asset to the worst. So, we have all these things which to me paint a bearish picture. Now, I've been bearish for a long time, but as you just stated, it doesn't mean I bet against the market.

[00:05:50]In fact, I trade long. And really, when you break the markets down through the lens that I look things through things, this chart here on the left is the S&P 500 daily chart. It's telling us when the technicals and the money flows and the sentiment are bullish. It tells us when things have changed direction and when to step aside. Price typically gives us a heads up before the news happens. Investors aren't idiots. they tend to move and make decisions as as big things are starting to unfold. And it's the same type of thing. The market went from a bounce and the money flows kick back in. And here we are with the S&P 500 rotating up. Now, based on price and sentiment, that is how I navigate the markets. We want to avoid the downside because we never know how far it's going to go. We want to make sure we're long when it does turn back up.

[00:06:37]This chart on the right hand side is the actual sentiment. This is what investors are kind of thinking and feeling with their money. And when it's red and orange, that means they're very nervous.

[00:06:46]When it turns green and it gets strong here, that's telling us there's big money flows piling in and we want to make sure we're long the market. So, you know what you what I say long term is I'm I'm bearish. I do believe we're coming into a huge market correction and it's going to devastate most investors.

[00:07:04]The key is to still play these cycles, these trends that are moving in the markets until, you know, the actual bare market takes place. So, you know, just because I'm bearish doesn't mean I'm betting on the falling pricing. I mean, we're we're riding this market higher.

[00:07:17]It's the same with the NASDAQ. It's screaming up very close to hitting another target. You can see big money flows and sentiment are strong in the equity space. And so, uh, it doesn't matter how bearish I am, I still follow my rules. I follow the strategy. I follow the money. And that is kind of how we navigate the markets.

[00:07:36]>> Before we continue with the video, let's talk about your most important asset, your personal data and privacy. Now, your personal data is constantly being collected and sold and exposed online from places like shady data broker sites and even big data breaches. So, your private information like your name, address, and phone number is out there on the internet and it's easier to find than you actually think. That's why I recommend today's sponsor, Delete Me. It takes a few minutes to set up and they handle the entire process. They find where your information appears, verify those listings, and submit removal requests to hundreds of data broker websites. They also continue monitoring over time since this data can resurface and reappear. I've been using Delete Me for over a year now, and their privacy reports clearly show that over 325 listings of my information have been removed. Check it out now. Scan the QR code on the screen or go to jointdeme.com/davidlin link in the description down below and use my code davidin for 20% off. Take control of your privacy today. Now back to the video. I'm just thinking Chris, if nothing changes in the world right now, let's say if the Iran war continues and eventually a ceasefire is reached some point, maybe next year, maybe later this year, let's say the Federal Reserve doesn't change the Fed funds rate either way. Let's say the economy continues to grow weekly but still growing nonetheless. Would you change your outlook on a market correction that would happen eventually that could devastate investors? Maybe it never happens.

[00:09:12]>> Uh yeah, it it could like I'd like to see a broad market really a a broad market rally across the board. I'd like to stop seeing sector rotation as much and we could kick back into a full-on a really strong bull market that I feel like it's the beginning of another major cycle. And it's possible we we step into that. Maybe this market is resilient enough by the end of this year, whatever happens, maybe we just get back into it.

[00:09:36]Uh so it it is possible.

[00:09:40]But I mean, I really I'm just no matter what happens, we still follow price. So it really doesn't matter, you know, if we're in a stage three or a stage, you know, two bull market, whatever stage we're in, we just because we're in a stage doesn't mean we stop trading or we trade, you know, worry about falling prices. We still just follow price. So there's potential I get bullish someday if if the market proves based on how I follow it, saying that, hey, this actually looks like we're not getting a real big correction or we've already had it and now we're going to go forward.

[00:10:10]But uh at this point, I still I still see that coming. But um who knows maybe I'll I'll turn bullish someday.

[00:10:16]>> Well the uh the oil price spiked again last night as Trump rejected in the uh uranium proposal to reopen the straight of four moves. Now would a higher oil price let's say it goes to 120. So Brent spiked to 126 and then came back down to 114. Let's say it goes to 130. Would there be a price level at which you would start to short the S&P 500? In other words, you think, okay, oil is getting way too out of hand. It's going to affect negatively affect the stock market.

[00:10:41]>> I I wouldn't short it. it is in an uptrend. So, I I won't bet against the current trend, but I'll definitely be like, "Hey, this looks a little frothy."

[00:10:48]I think the I think the markets high oil will most likely affect the stock market. If it keeps going up and and moving higher, it's it's definitely going to take money out of, you know, the average person's pocket. It's going to make everything more expensive.

[00:11:02]Inflation is, you know, going to creep up. Uh so, it's bad for the market, but I wouldn't short it. I mean, I do watch the price and a lot of times I'll see these big pops and I'll be like, "Whoa, this is, you know, this is most likely going to have a quick pullback over the next full few days, but I never actually trade those, you know, those intraday or one day spikes on news just because they are really, really random." And for all you know, that momentum keeps going. And so, if anything, I'd be more so excited about getting long oil. Uh but again, I'm it's not a type of trade I'd take on right now because it has crazy uncertainty with the news and what's going on. It really is just uh real coin toss at this point. The way that the news comes out and and it swings >> the oil price itself.

[00:11:44]Are you are you trading oil futures right now, Chris?

[00:11:47]>> No, we we've traded the energy space. We traded uh XOP, which is a an ETF on the energy space. So, if I actually I can pull that up real quick. XOP, we got in and we hit our first target yesterday on that. So, we've locked in some gains. I I do believe we're going to see oil hold up for a while. I think we're going to see energy stocks probably want to hold up or move higher. As long as energy stays high, these energy companies can make a lot more money. So, I think the energy space and stocks are still going to do very well. We have seen them pull back recently simply that was when everybody was expecting the straight of horm moves to get sorted out and then it kind of got priced into it and now we realized hey it it's not over yet and now price is going back up of these energy stocks but uh I don't trade I used to trade oil a lot now I never trade it I'll rather trade the equities around it myself >> long time ago when I was in high school we had a project to to um create a fictitious stock portfolio just to help us teach us how stocks work and how trading works and we were assigned a 3-w weekek time horizon and the group with the highest returns win some sort of prize. I can't remember I didn't win. So I um I consulted one of my mom's friends who was a stock broker at the time and he told me to just buy oil trade oil futures because that was the most volatile thing. This was before cryptos and I I this was after the dotcom bubble. So he was like let's go trade oil futures and I think I lost about 80% during that three weeks period. um that and nonetheless oil futures commodities very volatile um several large well-known funds invested in the oil space were down like 50% I think it was under fund down 50% in April so would you consider getting back into the space uh would you you know you're not in it now you were before now would probably be the absolute perfect time for an oil trader volatility is just extreme team.

[00:13:45]What do you think?

[00:13:46]>> So, I mean with our with our one our band strategy, our model portfolio, we are still long XOP long the energy space. I'm not personally to me I'm I'm not trading individual sectors. I personally wouldn't be trading the the the oil market simply for what I stated before, which is every day you wake up to a piece of news in a wild and a huge swing. So, I don't want to go and risk my capital hoping that somebody doesn't say something or fire off some missile or something and I lose my shirt when we have like really no control uh over it and it's really extra volatile. So, I would steer clear of it. Futures, as you said, I I blew up two trading accounts, trading futures many many years ago.

[00:14:26]They are very leveraged. You can make a ton of money, but you can also lose it.

[00:14:30]It's much easier to lose it. And I know somebody who just lost, you know, 30% of their entire account, like a couple hundred grand on one trade trading futures. So, they are super dangerous.

[00:14:40]And so, I I would recommend people don't trade futures unless you are an absolute expert in that commodity and you understand the markets and trading and risk management and uh and to not even tra just because something's moving.

[00:14:55]This is the problem, David, is because oil's moving, has volatility, it lures people in. like you want to trade it because it has volatility, you should actually be doing the opposite in my opinion, stepping away. Like you shouldn't mess with things like that that have this type of volatility because this volatility isn't just based on a trend coming to an end. This is based on a whole bunch of tweets and a whole bunch of news just firing off all the and it just carries, you know, a lot more risk to it. So, I don't want something that has a low odds of of winning. You mentioned that uh new news comes out every day that could move oil in one direction or another. Generally, how do you affect how do you let news and current events affect your trading decisions? For example, we just had an FMC meeting yesterday. Four descents, eight out of four, the highest number of defense descents since92.

[00:15:42]They kept rates unchanged. The Iran war that's ongoing um back and forth between Israel, the US and Iran that happens on a daily basis. Uh and of course economic data that comes out weekly. How do you how do you let these things dictate your next moves?

[00:15:58]>> Yeah. So, they they don't dictate anything. They play zero part of what we do. But what these news events do is elevate, you know, obviously a little bit anxiety like, oh, we got the Fed out later. And, you know, it's like, okay, expect some type of move. So, it doesn't change our trades in any way, shape, or form. It just puts us more on high alert saying, okay, we might see a big swing.

[00:16:19]we might give back some gains here if it goes against us or we might it might move in our favor. All it does is just stir up a little bit of extra emotion, a little anxiety of like how's it how's it going to play out. So, and and you know that's the that's the only way that we really deal with it. And now I've done it for so long that I don't really care, you know, I don't I don't stress too much about it. I feel the stress of investors who are, you know, following and and were in a position. I can feel their stress. I can see it in their comments, in their emails that they're all worried about the news coming out and what do we do? What if it does this?

[00:16:52]And uh so I mean it doesn't bother me, but I try to handhold investors saying, "Listen, there's nothing we can do about it. Nobody knows what the outcome is or how the markets will react." If you follow a strategy and you have rules and risk in place, you'll never blow your account up. But as soon as you start trading on emotions and fear, that is how you make big mistakes and you end up getting in at the wrong time, getting out at the wrong time, skipping trades, putting on positions you shouldn't have.

[00:17:17]So, I'm like, just stick to your let's stick to our strategy. Follow our rules.

[00:17:22]Whatever the news comes, we're protected because we have a game plan and we've got our stops in place. We have our targets in place. It's very difficult to do, but people just need to let go of control when it comes to the markets and let the trends, let the tides do the work. Let them the the the rules control what's going on, right? It's plan the trade and then trade the plan. Uh easier said than done, that's for sure.

[00:17:46]>> So, can we look at something that has not been in a clear uptrend for the last couple weeks, which is gold?

[00:17:52]>> Sure. Now, the stock market you talked about being in a clear uptrend, V-shaped recovery. Uh, ever since gold fell end of January and, uh, and then again mid-March, it's been hovering in a range and that range has been about $4,500 to $5,000.

[00:18:10]What is u what is this price action doing? If you take a look at a chart like that, >> sure. So, I mean, when we look at the the long-term picture of gold there, there's there's no doubt the long-term trend is still up. Uh so what we need to see is how this is going to play out.

[00:18:25]This this consolidation we have here, this pullback is actually a pretty controlled pullback. Percentage- wise, it was big for gold. You know, obviously it's usually really slow moving, but based on the the size of this move and this rally, this is actually a very controlled pullback. And it's tell it's saying hey this could be a bull flag meaning this is a pause before the next target is about uh 8,000 to 8800 to 8,000 to 8800 if it can start to move higher before it breaks this low or is this going to continue to unwind and go down a little bit more over time and reset. And so right now gold and silver and miners are all in this neutral territory. I'm not interested in them at this moment. We are waiting to see what happens. But when we zoom into the short-term chart, as as you mentioned, we do have the moving averages sloping down. The 50-day, the 20-day sloping down, and it's below the 50-day, and then the 5day below both of those, and so is price. And so, when we have that scenario, the trend is generally in favor of that direction. So, the trend is still pointing down. And the chart is actually pointing to about $3500 $3,600 for gold over the next few months. Uh that's what the chart is telling us. And you know, depending what happens here, we like to follow this 150day moving average. If price does start to trade down here, the 150day might start to flatline and it might actually start to slope down and then price may start to rally underneath it and maybe it flounders and takes a long time to recover. So, right now, gold has got mixed signals. The long-term trend is up. The short-term trend is down. And a good example of kind of the flip of this is is actually there's the Bitcoin chart. If I I flip over here very quickly, you can see the green moving average is sloping up and price has a series of bull flags, bullish stairstepping action to the upside. Then price breaks down which is this is where gold could actually start to break down to like you know 3500 and we see the 150 start to roll over and then it goes into a bearish environment. So gold right now and this is the same with silver and the same with all miners is we're at this cusp like is are precious metals going to pull back and go deeper and is the longer trend going to start to turn down and if that is the case we could see gold and silver trade sideways for a year or two or three or it could do you know it could go dormant for a very very long time which nobody expects and that's one reason why it could do it and so that is why I'm not interested in gold right now is because it could be dead money for a year or many years. And right now, money is piling into the equities market. So, let's just get long the asset that is actually going up in value and forget about these other ones for now until they're screaming like bye bye bye. Right. So, that's the the take I have for gold and silver. They're the pretty much the same charts.

[00:21:24]>> They're not screaming bye bye bye right now. Correct. Besides the stock market, which is what we talked about earlier, what else is screaming by?

[00:21:32]>> There really isn't a whole lot that is screaming by at this point. I mean, there really isn't anything. I mean, the only thing I really like at this point are the equities markets. Uh, the dollar has been flat. If we take a look at the dollar, it has been trading flat, trying to carve out this this bottom potentially and see if it is going to eventually break to the upside. uh the bond market. When we look at TLT, long-term treasury bonds, they have been trading down and sideways for a long time. Precious metals are now in a in a tipping point. Are they going to rally or are they going to collapse? So, there is really really isn't a whole lot that I'm excited about other than the overall broad market uh equities market. And I mean, it's that simple. It's like find out where the money's going and invest in that pocket or that asset.

[00:22:19]>> Anything that screams overbought to you right now? Um, uh, not really. I would I would argue, you know, the the the equities market is a little overdone. We've just had a huge run. We've had good good news. It may take a little bit of a pause or pullback. That would be a bullish thing, but we're we're in this scenario like, and this is the same with the S&P 500 and everything is this little pocket. I was talking to members about this yesterday or the day before. It's starting to show a little bit of exhaustion. People are getting nervous.

[00:22:54]They feel like, you know, this this run is running out of speed. The problem is it's it's just like this or it's just like this. The market climbs this wall of worry and it could just keep grinding its way higher for months. And so, I mean, that's why you don't want to fight the trend. Even though equities have had the, you know, one of the biggest pops and moves here, it feels overdone, but it doesn't mean it's overdone, right?

[00:23:20]And this is where like you have to like let go of your fears, let go of your bias or your your emotions and be like, let's just trust this trend. Let's just let this play out. Let's continue to, you know, trade this trend and go from it. So, uh, that's that's kind of if I was say anything's overbought, I'd say the equities market is has had the quick pop and move. Now, it's like going to grind it out to the upside.

[00:23:44]>> How important is market sentiment and positioning versus levels? Say it goes beyond a um a key resistance level for you, but you're looking at market sentiment, maybe the commitment traders report on futures data, and it doesn't seem to be very crowded in one way. Would you still consider I I guess upgrading or updating your uh your upside target levels and stay long in that scenario? Uh the the way we run the strategy is we we base it off kind of statistical analysis what the various indices or or sectors do on average over the long run and we trade those key targets. There's a certain level that the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ hit when it usually runs out of steam over the long run and pulls back. And so we usually try to lock in gains where those pivot points are where the market percentage- wise usually runs out. the NASDAQ at 10% after a trend signal for us is usually a point where if it's going to pull back and correct that's usually around the point so we lock in partial gains and then the market will pull back for a few days or a few or a few weeks generally and and then it'll turn back up and it'll generate a new signal so then we can reinvest with our our full portfolio again and ride it higher. Uh so overall I mean the key here is let the market work itself out. We don't change our targets. we literally just play how the markets typically move. There's various cycles. It's why I love focusing on the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ is there's these huge major cycles that roll through the stock market every week, every two weeks, every month, every quarter, every six months, every year based on economic data and paychecks that automatically go into the markets. Season there's seasons in the markets like seasons in in in nature that affect people. There's all kinds of different cycles at play and I love that's what I love about the US market is it has these cycles these moves that play out and I and that's what we are playing. We're playing a a time frame that is usually too short for a passive investor but it's too slow for an active trader and the money is usually hidden in the spots that people aren't looking and and they're not patient enough for it. Um, and so that's what we do is we look at these cycles that are usually 40 to, you know, 180 days and and we play these cycles in through those those time frames.

[00:26:08]>> Bitcoin has been called low beta now by some investors. Previously, a high beta play on the stock market, underperforming the stocks since the beginning of the year. Let's take a read on Bitcoin right now.

[00:26:21]>> Yeah. So, Bitcoin, as I we showed earlier here, it's stairstepping its way down. It has a bearish chart pattern, meaning a bearish, we got a bare flag.

[00:26:29]So the you have price go down, it creates a flag pole and then the flag usually is supposed to flag in the opposite direction of the trend. So if the trend or the flag pole was down, it usually flags in the opposite direction.

[00:26:40]And then you'll usually have the second half of that move. And now we're we're flagging back up again. And it is pointing to about, you know, 50 to $52,000 per Bitcoin on the next leg down. So, there's no doubt the trend is down for Bitcoin long-term. And let's just let's just zoom into here because this is an interesting point. The long-term trend is down, which is this green 150day moving average and prices below it. But the short-term trend on based on these key moving averages are actually just positive. And this is actually a little bull flag. And so, this is kind of the flip of what gold has, right? It has mixed signals. I don't like to trade when there's mixed signals. I really wait for both or multiple time frames to generate a signal and then we get in and then we get a huge powerful move which is how we traded gold a bunch of times last year and silver catching these huge impulse waves to the upside. And so right now, Bitcoin, I think the key will be to let Bitcoin work itself out. And if it starts to turn down and and starts say a a new downtrend, then potentially take advantage of shorting Bitcoin or buying an inverse ETF on it. Um, so the long-term trend is down, the short-term trend is up, and you just need to be aware. It's a little bit of a coin toss here. the odds are it's going to go lower over time because the longer term trend is still at play and um it has a bearish chart pattern on top of it which charts are really just the vibration of market participants of what they're thinking and feeling. Everything in this world is is moving. It's all vibration, right? The stock market is literally the vibration of investors and and these vibrations tell us different things and so this is a bearish pattern pointing to lower pricing.

[00:28:26]>> Thanks Chris. And finally, let's talk about real estate. Um, we're both in Canada. We can talk about Canadian and or American real estate. Investors would like to know um well, not just investors, but homeowners want to know if rates are going um up or down later this year. Um, you know, the Feds provided uh some clarity um that they're keeping rates steady for now until more data comes in, but uh homeowners want to know where mortgage rates are going and um maybe comment on that. and also the broader real estate sector overall.

[00:29:00]>> Yeah, I'm not I'm not a big expert when it comes to interest rates, mortgage rates, but I do think rates are going to probably hold tight for a little while.

[00:29:07]I I think they're going to stay where they are. Uh I think I think we're coming into spring right now and usually this is a season when everybody gets excited about real estate. Lots of homes go up for sale. Lots of people need to move into new homes or they're looking to change, upgrade, downgrade, whatever the reason. And so I, you know, when we look at IYR, this is just a a REIT. This is a way to get involved into real estate. It's at a very nice move. It's consolidating and pulling back. It is pointing to much higher pricing going forward, about a 5% move if this pattern plays out. And what I like about this chart is is two things. Uh the chart pattern is bullish, pointing to higher pricing. And we're in a time where sentiment for real estate is is on people's mind. And when people don't know what to do, we tend to see them move to real estate. A lot of times they'll move to real estate. Sometimes they move to utilities and they go to these these defensive plays. Today, we've got some selling going on in the big techs on good earnings. That confuses a lot of people. They don't understand what's going on. We're seeing real estate pop today. We're seeing utilities, uh, XLU, if we take a quick look at that, it is popping and moving up over 2% today. So, people don't know what to do. the average investor gets nervous around, you know, big good good big news in tech, yet it gets hammered with selling, right? And so people flock to the boring safe plays. So I I mean, I think real estate overall, I don't think it's a time to buy real estate in terms of like buying an actual physical home.

[00:30:35]I think the real estate ETF has potential to run higher. Investors can drive the share price up, but I don't think actual physical home prices are really going to surge or rally 5%. I think there'll be a great time to get into real estate potentially in a year or three. I think I still think we're going to have some financial reset.

[00:30:51]We're going to have some problems. Real estate is going to soften and drop in price. And then I think real estate will be a great investment to purchase physical properties. Uh but when we look at it from just a ETF standpoint, I do think there's some upside here based on technicals and sentiment right now.

[00:31:08]>> What moves the Canadian real estate sector right now? the um all across the can the country in big cities like can like Vancouver where I'm based in Toronto close to where you are condo prices have been dropping like a rock and not just condos um single family homes as well especially the higherend luxury markets is any particular reason why >> yeah I think there's a I think there's a lot of reason I think everything got bit up and got overpriced uh I think there was a feeding frenzy for people to buy and upgrade and I mean we saw pretty much everything with a three-bedroom or more really take off after COVID.

[00:31:44]Everybody wanted needed a home office and farm properties got swooped up and it it just created this this big feeding frenzy and I think the momentum has has stalled. I think it still costs ridiculous amount to to build. um we got huge inflation and and I mean it feels like pricing for stuff in North America hadn't changed in a very very long time and then COVID hit and everything's now three times more expensive within a you know handful of years. Uh so overall I think what we're seeing is a lot of people a lot of homes are going for sale but nobody's wanting to buy them. The only way they're selling is if the price dramatically drops and that's what we're starting to see. We're finally starting to see the price of homes come down cuz people are we are finally understanding that hey we're not going to sell unless we lower our price. And so it's just a supply and demand. There's a lot of people that I think want to move. I'm not sure for whatever reason they need to downgrade or upgrade, but people don't want to seem to buy homes. It's just people want to sell at this point and uh that's just creating selling pressure. So again, I don't really know for sure, but definitely the momentum has stalled out in the real estate space. it has been for the last couple of years and now I think we're just starting to see the drop and maybe markets hold up a little bit this spring but I think by the end of this year I think real estate pricing is going to be sharply lower and we're going to see a lot more selling and and probably prices down 10 15 20% potentially a very big correction for the housing pricing >> I wonder if that's going to feed into the stock market overall if people feel less wealthy they spend less and and company's earnings go down, >> it >> the wealth effect takes >> it's a snowball. It It's a snowball effect for sure. If people lose on their house or they don't get as much, especially when the markets start to turn south, they start to go down or businesses start to lay off more or AI starts to squeeze more people out.

[00:33:38]People naturally close their wallets.

[00:33:39]When you are uncertain, you you don't spend money and and then it's a snowball. Business sales like projections are going down. Investors see things are slowing. they start to sell stock pricing. If people take a hit on their house, they're not going to have as much money to put into the stock market or they're not going to put any in. So, it all it's all tied together.

[00:33:58]Any bit of negative sentiment or negative experience makes people usually tighten up on their spending. And I think home price homes are most people's biggest investment. And so, when they don't get what they think they should get or they take a loss on it, uh it does a lot of damage, I think, to the stock market and to the overall sentiment of investors. Okay, thanks.

[00:34:20]Let's um let's end it here, Chris, and uh we'll we'll follow up next time.

[00:34:24]Where can people where can people follow your work and uh study your work for now?

[00:34:28]>> Yeah, the best spot is to go to my website, which is the techchnicaltraders.com.

[00:34:34]I uh share daily analysis of what's going on in the markets. I manage my own portfolio. I share my exact trades that I put on. I focus on trading ETFs. My whole point is to make sure we're holding whichever asset is moving up at any given time and to make sure we're not holding something when it's going down and um I focus on my strategy which I call asset revesting which is just rotating into whichever asset is in favor and uh appreciating in value.

[00:35:00]>> Thanks very much Chris. We'll speak next time. Thank you for watching. Don't forget to like, subscribe, follow Chris and the technicalraders.com in the link down below.