COULD FUEL RUN OUT BY JULY? | I Ran the Numbers 🤔

本站添加: 2026-05-24

[00:00:00]Hey, what's going on guys? Appreciate you stopping by.

[00:00:03]It is an absolutely beautiful day here.

[00:00:06]Uh I am on the coast of Maine right now and it is in the mid-60s. It is cool.

[00:00:14]Compared to the last 2 days, yesterday it was right around 90. It got extremely warm.

[00:00:21]Day before around 85.

[00:00:23]Unseasonably warm for this time of the year and uh still got out there, uh did some work uh in the yard. This is during the week, you know, working full-time job.

[00:00:36]Take advantage of the time that you got, but um yeah, absolutely beautiful today.

[00:00:41]Clear sky.

[00:00:42]Uh almost clear.

[00:00:46]And uh so I wanted to give an a little bit of an update on a video I did uh a few days ago. Uh Jack Lawson on Substack. I'll put a link down below again.

[00:01:01]Had uh featured a article written by somebody else that talked about the potential for the United States to get uh extremely low or run out of fuel around July 3rd and uh I've seen several other sources for this. Uh not necessarily the same story, but that the calculations were done that is leading to this. And I said in my other video and I'll I'll say it now.

[00:01:34]I I struggle to believe it's actually going to happen, but who knows.

[00:01:38]So this morning I tried to do my own research and do my own calculations to see how close I could come to what was uh the the analyst, what they had calculated. And I'm not going to go through all the numbers because um it's pretty complicated. And uh for example, for diesel, I gave up. They're They're the usage of diesel in so many different industries made it really difficult to to to even come up with an estimation.

[00:02:19]So, I focused on gasoline.

[00:02:23]And if you didn't see the video, uh please go check it out.

[00:02:28]But uh the reality is uh the United States, and I'll I'll I'll make this really quick, like 60 seconds. The United States is a net exporter of oil.

[00:02:40]However, that does not mean we're energy independent because we're not. Even though that's been said, I I've said it, I've believed it, it's not true.

[00:02:50]The reality is that we uh produce more oil than we consume. However, we don't produce and refine the kind of fuel that we consume. So, we have to import oil that we then refine so that we can consume. Certainly, it could be fixed.

[00:03:14]That's another video. But the reality is we're dependent upon imports.

[00:03:20]And based on the analyst report and the investigation and calculations they did, they're saying that because the street has been closed, as well as other global demand uh that has increased for our uh oil, that we are depleting and lowering how much fuel that we have.

[00:03:47]And they're on or on about July 3rd, we're going to run out.

[00:03:54]And obviously that would not be a good thing.

[00:03:58]So, I did some calculations and I didn't come up with July 3rd.

[00:04:07]It was a couple of months later.

[00:04:09]However, I also know that my calculations did not have all the same data and the same level of accuracy. There were there were sources of consumption for the domestic gasoline market and all different grades of that that I know I'm not taking into consideration cuz I couldn't find the information.

[00:04:37]So, um I fully expected that I was going to find more information and the calculation was going to show that oh, that article it's it's just doom speak.

[00:04:52]And that's not what I found. I found real data, reliable data that definitely says that unless something changes, uh the supply is going to continue to to diminish. So, at a minimum, what that tells me, and if you know anything about economics, that if you have a demand that is right here or goes up and your supply is right here and goes down, that the cost will increase.

[00:05:28]So, if you have the same demand or higher, but you have less supply, the cost goes up.

[00:05:34]And give an example. If you have a food truck that sells pizza and they do 100 pizzas for an event and that event normally has 2,000 people and they sell those pizzas for $15.

[00:05:53]Well, if they take that same food truck at that same event, but for some reason there's 40,000 people at that event and they all want pizza, that pizza is either going to sell out immediately or those people are going to raise the price to $30 a pizza and they're still going to sell.

[00:06:17]So, what at a minimum what I'm seeing based on my calculations is pricing is going to keep going up.

[00:06:27]And uh in my area, uh here in Maine, and I know we we have other than California, maybe a couple other places, we have some of the higher fuel costs.

[00:06:39]We're sitting right around $4.50 for the cheapest gasoline.

[00:06:46]And I'm expecting that uh uh again by July 3rd, which is not that far away, uh recording this on May 21st, that we're going to it definitely be up over five bucks.

[00:07:02]And I'm not saying that this article is wrong.

[00:07:06]I'm not saying it's right either.

[00:07:09]But it's certainly concerning and it's something that we should be aware of and why I I'm talking about it.

[00:07:15]It's because people need to be aware that it's just not going to stay where it is now. It something's going to happen.

[00:07:22]>> [snorts] >> Now, if the straight gets opened, I'm sure that will help, but it's going to take time for that oil to start flowing on ships and being delivered.

[00:07:39]That's one of the issues is that there's a lack of oil coming to the United States from the research that I've done.

[00:07:48]Uh just today I saw an article that global oil inventories are falling at an accelerated rate. I took a few notes here. It says the start of May global draws from inventories have been running at 8.7 million barrels a day, which is the highest in history.

[00:08:10]Which means that the global oil supply is diminishing at the highest rate that it ever has in history.

[00:08:18]Total oil inventories globally have dropped to about 101 days of expected demand.

[00:08:26]The lowest level in nearly 8 years.

[00:08:30]And in the nearer term, uh by the way, this a lot of this information comes from Goldman Sachs.

[00:08:37]In the nearer term, Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude inching up to $120 a barrel due to the tanker traffic disruption in the Persian Gulf. $120 a barrel.

[00:08:52]Which backs up what I'm saying is that if the supply is dropping, the price is going to go up.

[00:09:00]Uh you know, we continue to see stories about auto parts stores, you know, these memos coming out uh about consumer level products are going to come in short supply. In other words, going to get buying a couple quarts of oil may prove difficult because they're expecting a shortage. Uh car dealerships, same thing is happening. Uh a lot in the maintenance shops, uh they're getting information to expect that petroleum products, which could be uh oil for vehicles as well as grease, automatic transmission fluid, stuff like that is going to there's going to be a shortage.

[00:09:41]And no doubt the price is going to go up.

[00:09:44]And and then I just saw apparently this story came out a week or so ago, but I just saw it this morning that their satellite imagery that I ran is dumping oil into uh the straight because they don't want to shut down their refineries. They don't want to shut down their their oil uh processes.

[00:10:12]And so they keep pumping in the in all of their reservoirs are full. So they have no place to put this oil and they can't ship it cuz United States is not letting them is not letting them.

[00:10:23]So they're dumping some into the straight.

[00:10:28]Um or in the Persian Gulf, which is obviously that's going to cause cause a problem.

[00:10:36]So uh just just not a lot of good news surrounding this.

[00:10:42]And um you know, I I I don't know what exactly is going to happen, but I think there's a very good chance prices are going to keep going up and I think we're going to see some shortages.

[00:10:55]I suspect that we're going to see uh you're going to go to your local gas station, you're going to have see the bags on the pumps.

[00:11:03]And if that happens, um you know, look for backups. Um if you can stock up now on some fuel on some gasoline, I would I would do it. I've done it.

[00:11:15]Um probably going to do it some more this weekend. I I can only store so much.

[00:11:21]But um you know, if it got really really bad, um stocking up on gasoline is probably going to be the least of your worries.

[00:11:31]So because there's is to be a massive interruption of deliveries, services, and being able to buy almost anything is that that's another video, I think. So, anyways, uh let me know your thoughts.

[00:11:48]Comment below. Uh if you've heard anything, you suspect anything, is there's anything that you're doing to kind of mitigate this or prepare, comment below, share.

[00:12:01]I really like to see uh for this Modern Exodus YouTube channel, I'd love to see the community uh or a community develop uh where people are conversing, kind of helping each other. Um uh if you haven't seen some of the uh gardening and homesteading content that I make, I I recently posted some stuff.

[00:12:23]And uh we'll be doing that a a lot more uh coming up. So, anyways, I appreciate you guys stopping by. I'm going to end this now. You guys stay safe, take care.

[00:12:33]We'll see you next time.

[00:12:35]So, I ran from the cities and the noise and lies, found a piece [music] of ground under open skies. Hands in the dirt, sweat [music] on my shirt, learning what living's really worth.

[00:12:48]While crooked [music] men shake hands in rooms, selling souls to corporate suits, society's sick, but I found the cure.

[00:12:57]>> [music] >> A backroad life honest and pure. They can keep their throne [music] and their golden noose.

[00:13:04]This life out here is my modern exodus.

[00:13:07][music] I traded screens for a sunrise, calloused palms, [music] blisters pride. Planting seeds where hope was