Is passive investing masking deeper weakness in Australian shares?

Añadido: 2026-06-01

[00:00:08]Good day folks. Welcome to another closing bell with me Charlie man for Fatale Investment Research joined as ever with chief trader here at Fatale Murray Dors.

[00:00:16]>> Hello. Hello.

[00:00:17]>> Good day Mari. Good day folks. It's been a tugof-war week would you say it's been up and down. We've had some positive days and some very big pullbacks on the market again. We're violently going nowhere. The ASX is up about4% this year to date.

[00:00:32]>> All I know is that when we have a big down day, it's probably going to be up the next day.

[00:00:36]>> It's not the next day. It's up the next day.

[00:00:38]>> I don't know if I've seen two days actually starting to go in the same direction. So, down 150 yesterday. Oh, we're up 80 points today.

[00:00:45]>> We're up again. I think we'll cover a lot of what we're seeing on the larger end of the market because it's been an especially tough time for the ASX 200.

[00:00:51]We have seen some green shoots within the small caps, but we'll leave it for the big ones this time because I think there's a lot going on, a lot of dispersion between those names.

[00:01:00]>> There's some really ugly charts out there. And I think I want to Yeah, I'm going to flick through quite a few just to give people a sense cuz we're always looking at the index. The banks, if the banks are strong, the index is strong.

[00:01:13]>> So, you're looking at the index saying, "Oh, the market's okay. It's okay." And you look beneath the surface and you go, "It is not okay." Yeah.

[00:01:20]>> And it's in the market darlings. This is what's interesting is all these fundies that are have been long all this stuff for so long. That's the easy no-brainer trades.

[00:01:29]>> The set and forget >> set and forget. Uh they're outperformers. This is why we keep beating the market. Blah blah blah.

[00:01:36]>> They've been in them for a long time and a lot of them are just imploding and it's one after the other as well. So I just wanted to show today take people through a list to give them a sense of of what is happening beneath the surface.

[00:01:49]>> Yeah, fair. Um I mean beneath the surface we can look at those stocks but I think wider zoom out. We're looking at obviously still concerns from the Iran war. We won't get into the you know the oil prices. Who knows what's happening.

[00:02:01]>> There's going to be oh they haven't got a deal.

[00:02:04]>> There is that concern there something up.

[00:02:06]>> We've also seen some kind of weakness within consumer spending. I think I want to touch on that a little bit later. And before we get into this deep into it, I think uh folks at home, next month, well, next week will be our first of the month stock viewer recommendations. So, if you can throw your recommendations in the comments or any stocks you want us to look at, any great picks, throw them in there. We'll check them out next week. Um, but I think let's start with the XJ.

[00:02:30]>> And if you are doing that, that must mean you want to join my trading room.

[00:02:34]Mar's trading room because that's where you really get to have me close up um chatting live taking you through all the charts that you're interested in. And what's good about it >> is that everyone puts in their best ideas and you I end up with a list of really great companies that I haven't even been looking at and I go, "Oh, wow.

[00:02:53]That's a that's an interesting company.

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[00:02:56]>> So, it's a really cool idea. And then we just go at it for an hour and just go bang bang bang through as many and teach people about how to, you know, manage trades. And I give give away a few more secrets than I do here.

[00:03:07]>> So if you're interested, >> join. Yeah.

[00:03:11]>> Doesn't doesn't not that expensive.

[00:03:13]>> No, it's pretty.

[00:03:13]>> We don't even make any money out of it quite frankly.

[00:03:17]Just to get you on board.

[00:03:19]>> Final plug for myself. We've also got my Atlas closing at tomorrow midnight. So that's half price deal there. Check that out. It's an absolutely killer killer service. So check out Atlas AI engine looking at the smaller cap markets and there are some green shoots there. We're seeing some really great momentum in that space. Do check that out. Anyway, let's get back to the markets. XJO ASX 200 looking pretty weird.

[00:03:43]>> Looking a little it I'm concerned because I'm seeing as I'll show you uh beneath the surface there's some real terrible uh stuff going on and the banks are what's holding it all up. The banks have just seen a paradigm shift.

[00:04:00]>> So we know that it's passive money holding them up. Everyone knows they're way overvalued.

[00:04:05]And whenever there's a paradigm shift, that's when you your ears prick up because if you've got something that's way overvalued and it just can't go down, but then you actually have a change of the rules of the game.

[00:04:17]>> In this case, the capital >> the capital gains tax changes and you say, "Okay, they're investing the the loans are going to drop off however much credit growth is going to be down." And you're and you're the most expensive bank in the world.

[00:04:31]um I I start to scratch my head and wonder just when it's going to fall over and um the setup is there. So in like CBA, we're about to have the second monthly sell pivot.

[00:04:42]>> I want to look at this. So CBA is down 7% this week or sorry 7% in May.

[00:04:46]Westpack's down 7%. NAB is down around 7% and Zed's around down around 7%. So it's a sector ID ranking coming out here. And I think we were having a a chat about this just before we were filming. Auction clearance rates. So the rates of buyers falling off a cliff.

[00:05:02]Yeah. If people aren't aware what the auction clearance rates are, it's the amount of um houses that go to auction that actually sell at the end of the day.

[00:05:08]>> But people withdrawing a lot as well. So you got the figures different stats >> and the figures are are a bit rubbery because some people include the ones that have withdrawn or don't and that sort of thing. So >> I mean weekly clearance rates on a national average are about 52.2% last week. Some of them have even lower.

[00:05:25]>> Brisbane's fallen off a cliff.

[00:05:26]>> Brisbane's fallen off cliff. They're in the 42 43%.

[00:05:30]>> New South 35. I've seen really bad. Depends on the data. Yeah, >> but we're looking at a lot that are sub 50, right? And anything below 55 is considered a buyers market. So, we are in that buy.

[00:05:41]>> And property stocks, as you'll see in a bit, they are on their lows and looking a bit scary. REA group >> um just the music just stopped and and uh in freef fall. So that we're seeing some clear signs and and this could lead into the banks having a bit of a rough time. So it's it's almost a perfect trader setup. It's like way overvalued.

[00:06:06]>> Passive money's driven it too far.

[00:06:08]>> Um change of paradigm which will affect their growth rates going forward.

[00:06:15]>> So it's like what the hell are we doing up here? So what's the spark that's going to get it moving to the downside?

[00:06:20]And when it does, will it be will it be a real bad go?

[00:06:24]>> It's a similar thing to what I was talking about um earlier with Woody about the the NASDAQ. It's like kind of similar with this with the passive flows for every dollar that's gone into these banks from retail like let's say you know Joemo buys a dollar in CBA. There's all this kind of self-reinforcement loop of well then that encourages further passive money to go in because the market crap increases. So that also works in reverse however right. So when these things start actually turning down for every dollar that's coming out from Joemo passive money's having to sell it and it it all the way down >> like this over and we're seeing this in all of these companies that have been the market darlings the cockers CSLs brambles now we I'll show you >> when everyone's in it and and it is over years and years and it's all perfect it's that eye of the needle idea the music stops and it just goes bang and everyone's trapped So now you've just got huge amounts of money trapped and in pain and suffering and it's going like that. So CSL it's now $95. When does it stop? Can you imagine the pain of everyone looking at that going um or do I hold on?

[00:07:30]>> We're sounding so bearish right now.

[00:07:32]There are some green but the 200 is the worst place. Should we start on the charts? I think in the charts.

[00:07:39]>> All right. All right. So, shall we shall we start with um some just going through some of the yeah >> the dodgy ones just to show you? Uh we'll just >> I just want to flick through and and I want to do this just so and I won't talk quickly much about each stock or anything like that. This is more a sense of what's actually happening out in the market at the moment. So, here's Bapcore, right? Related to auto sales, isn't it?

[00:08:05]>> Yeah, I believe so.

[00:08:05]>> Um and and so here we go. um IDP education $40 down to two >> CSL >> we know 300 now down to 95 and I've been talking about this in my trading room thing people like oh is it time to buy I'm like just just why catch the falling dagger right now just allow >> you have time you have time with it >> ResMed's now 44 back to 28 selling off sharply >> one of the strongest names in 2025 right >> yeah um uh healthcare Ramsey $80 $ down to 36. Now, here we get into the property. So, here's um Dexus Group, right? It's been this is a couple of years of damaging and thinking, can we turn up here? And now we're down at the lows um about to break. Moving on to um healthcare and diagnostics, >> D real estate group. This is a great one. Bang.

[00:09:00]um 275 down to 148 and on the lows now because of what's just come out. So it was already selling off and now we're getting a selling saying oh is property on the nose. This one could go into freef fall for a bit but then it might get interesting.

[00:09:15]>> Uh Fletcher building >> Fletcher have been struggling. They've had you know >> they've had a wild few years but $7 that plumbing court case they had back in was it 2024 where they couldn't resolve it and it just kind of expanded from there.

[00:09:28]one of those big uh Kiwi names that tried to come over to Australia, play with the big guns, and then really have just been a capital destruction machine.

[00:09:36]>> Yeah. And now Wise Tech 140 now at 36. When does that turn up?

[00:09:42]I'm I'm still interested in that, but it's again it's it's like I'm I'm not sending out a buy alert yet because it's um on its lows and trending. Now here, a monopoly monopoly one that all it ever did was go up. uh this is what well owned uh because it's just you know >> why would you not own a monopoly >> so if you zoom in on this on Tuesday it had the record biggest drop of its entire stock history after it kind of came out what did it say uh it was a capex guidance raised to 180 to 200 million up from 160 C to 180 so this kind of chess depository thing they which they tried to start during the co era they said hey we're going to redo the chest the clearance house system for the stocks >> and and they failed. They failed massively.

[00:10:26]>> Yeah, they were trying to do a blockchain based one there and they failed then and they've tried to do it again. Costs are exploding. So, yeah, there's a lot of things where the capex costs are blowing up and they're not really seeing the profits there.

[00:10:36]>> Perpetual, that's been a problem for a while, but this is a move to passive, I guess, versus active uh going on. Poor old Domino's 160 down to 17.

[00:10:45]>> Domino's is one of these ones where again, this is a story of an Australian company trying to expand overseas, especially into the Asian market at this one, and completely failing. just completely failing. We've had Guzman go Gomez this week.

[00:10:58]>> I think they're expanding into Mexico next.

[00:11:00]>> They announced after after 6 years at trying to push Mexican food into the US market, they're they're pulling back and they're coming back to the Australian shores, which is they shareholders look, they're happy about it. The the prices up since then, but same thing, Australian really fails to break into that US market >> and now are going to retail and being hit. So, Premier Investments 36 down to 12 in a straight line.

[00:11:24]>> And these are all market darling overowned stocks. Sky City, we know that all the problems they've had. There's a bit of wealth destruction there.

[00:11:32]>> Um, does anyone watch free to wear television any anymore? I don't know. I don't really.

[00:11:37]>> Um, so there's nine network on the lows looking terrible. Len lease a famous famous name for decades.

[00:11:44]>> Another big international push failed.

[00:11:46]Yeah. So there there's huge amount of money lost there. Treasury wine estates there you go 14 down to four could be interesting soon. Um but but you know in all sorts >> if you go back to that 2020 drop that was what the when China banned the wines right and it never really recovered from those >> highs recovered and then that the American business um had all all trouble. They blew up blew up a lot of money there.

[00:12:09]>> They that's their focus now isn't it?

[00:12:11]Luxury wine they're saying because the consumer lower end is not there. But anyway looking weak. And then uh Sonic Healthcare um another market darling that has fallen off the >> These are some of the biggest names 2023 24 25 those were all the names you would talk about.

[00:12:26]>> Um bit of uh property tried to recover again now on on on its lows and this is saying is it going to is the next thing we see a freef fall.

[00:12:37]Uh brambles uh there's one that that'll keep going up won't it? Brambles 20 bucks down to 16 in a straight line collapse. So all the fund managers who've along that going, "Oh, at least I got Brambles. I'm up 200% on that in the last few years." They've just come into the office a few days ago and gone, "Oh, that one's gone as well."

[00:12:54]>> Don't they have the highest paid CEO in in the ASX brambles? I think they do. I think they passed McQuary's top CEO, but yeah, they'll be sweating right now.

[00:13:04]>> Zero 200 bucks down to 74 and still in trouble. That could end up being a great buy.

[00:13:10]>> Could be a great buy. But but it's just once you have this pressure and everyone's long and wrong and in pain, it's like you've just got to let the blood letting get to a point where the last person who's thinking of getting out >> gets out and you just don't know where that stop is.

[00:13:26]>> Full capitulation.

[00:13:28]>> Prometicus 320 down to 130.

[00:13:32]Uh still in a bit of trouble.

[00:13:34]>> Healthcare is not looking defensive at this moment.

[00:13:36]>> No, it's looking very weird. Even even a solid packaging company and you know >> they have had a lot of issues Aurora with their aluminium costs right because it's directly tied to energy we've had seen energy flowing up from that the amount of times they try and expand to a new you know small can market to try and sell to Gen Z's they throw out all this capital and then they have these huge costs come in so Aurora I do feel for because I do think it's a great business underlying that but costs keep blowing out >> grain Corp getting hit by the war is it and um we've just they've just said the the the crop the crop is going to be much less cuz fertilizer cost.

[00:14:12]>> Yep. So we're seeing real effects of the war and what is actually happening amongst companies actually come out.

[00:14:19]>> Uh seek is everyone thinking Australia is on the right path here >> seek for our job jobs 28 bucks down to 12 and still in free for >> brutal. All right a few more otherwise I'm going to turn to an uber uber bear.

[00:14:31]>> Okay so we're nearly done. Harvey Norman that was up at eight bucks down at four.

[00:14:35]That's that's falling. ARB, again, this is another um related to uh cars, the four-wheel drives, that sort of thing.

[00:14:43]Uh smashed and uh Meyers um we know the story there. Um and that one has broken I actually put that up when it first broke that that uh trend and is not looking good. So, this is you're seeing retail, you're seeing property, you're seeing all of these effects of the war as well and costs and that sort of thing. But there is a lot of pressure and a lot of market darlings that have been >> a lot of market darings. Yeah, that was popular bramble.

[00:15:09]>> I know that was very quick but that was a lot of just you know what you sectors >> of this ASX 200 big names all moving in a serious point of weakness right now.

[00:15:17]So it is an interesting one. I mean the only positive news we've had this week was the weaker CPI numbers right? April CPI came in at 4.2% rather than the expected f 4.4 consensus. So that's down from 4.6 six uh last month. So there is some sign that we will be able to maybe look at cutting rates in the future or at least you know not raising them in the so who knows what comes to next with that but that's the only kind of silver lining we've had recently. Uh it's been a weak time was the RBA has raised what three times. We're at a cash rate of 4.35%.

[00:15:52]that combined um with what we're seeing in the properties >> and everyone I mean this change is just really is huge and they're pushing back and saying they're not going to be making many. I thought they would back down at some point. Maybe they will ultimately.

[00:16:05]>> Yeah. But coming full circle to what we were beginning with here. So if we're looking at, you know, higher interest rates that are kind of stuck there and these CGT changes weakening the underlying finances of these banks and these banks being the last kind of bullwark of the ASX holding up as a as a index, then you start getting very bearish, right? If we're not already bearish, we're looking at something where it's structurally held up by a thing that is kind of been overvalued for quite a bit of time. And now we may see that turn around. And now do people remember from months ago, you know, of me saying about when you get a warning sign and and you know, when it first happens, you go, "Oh, is this going to work or not?" But the warning sign can help you just to say, "Look, there is a bit of a shift in momentum here." And it can turn into something. You're not saying it will.

[00:16:55]>> Yeah.

[00:16:56]>> You're saying watch out and remember a few months ago. So there's your big sell pivot there. And from there, we've seen what I wanted to see of basically the selling pressure is coming where I thought it would. Now, it's still in uptrend, right? So, it is actually still in long-term uptrend. I haven't dumped all my stuff yet. I've got a small portfolio because we actually dumped a lot of stuff in January and February.

[00:17:20]Um, so, and because it's now done this, I'm I can't be gung-ho. So, so that's just a sign here saying, look, we do have a bit of a structure here and it's been a year of going nowhere. So, all I'm saying with all of this is it's doing the work before potentially and what happens once it does crack beneath the the 20-month moving average, beneath the lows of the past year's trading. So, if we're bearish and we're saying things are setting up here, we've got the monthly sell pivot. Really, what you're saying is the next break through there, as I've said before, it it can be a bad one. So, it can actually end up doing that. And look, in the end it can can do what it likes, but the setup is just there. Now, um, and I'll go to the weekly just to quickly look at it.

[00:18:09]Remember, um, I've been saying on this, look, once it's turned back down, when we're looking at this range and we're sort of saying, okay, it is in the range and we know it can do what it likes, but we're seeing the selling pressure where we expected to see it.

[00:18:26]And now it's come in and a bit of buying pressure's come in here. here. That's all good. But it's in weekly downtrend.

[00:18:31]And this is the thing I guess that I can now use going forward is if we look down at the the MACD, which is just comparing, you know, the the how the moving averages move together. And I look at the exponential versus a simple because it's it gives me better signals.

[00:18:48]>> Yeah. And what I just want you to note is I can sort of stay bearish on this until, and sorry, I know I've got to set this up and uh and make it clear for you. Um is that I can really wait till I get uh the buy signal on the MACD, let's say, where we've actually got things turning up. So saying right even even when it's weak >> to saying okay when it does actually give you uh the signals where it's actually turning up what what has happened in the past you know there's the beginning of that move >> there's a uh uh that the beginning of that move there uh there's that beginning of that move there in the end the rally you know so what I'm saying is while it's negative I've got no need it can keep going M >> and all I all I need to do now is say right all I can just see what happens here. I've got no view but everything's sort of pointing a bit bearish and um all it's going to take is some something happening and it's going to look pretty bad below 8400. Everything is still negative. M >> so I can just basically relax and say I don't need to be loading up or I don't I can just see what happens here because it is all sort of set up saying oh it's not going to take too much >> and especially if the banks go the index will go. So so it's all about those banks and whether they actually do tip over properly. Um but but the setup is now there after a year of stuffing around uh where watch out uh below 8400 in the ASX 200.

[00:20:31]>> Yeah. Fair. I just want to touch on something because it is quite clever and it's probably not as intuitive for people at home if they've got their own setups with their charts. The use of both the exponential and the longerterm simple, right? Because the the shorter term exponential moving averages will react fast to those uptrends. So, they will dissect or cross over the the slower simple moving averages faster.

[00:20:54]So, you can see on the upticks, it's crossing at a point where you can get an earlier signal than you usually would.

[00:20:59]Usually, >> Exactly. But on the on the downside, you usually won't get the the crossover on the on the falling end of it because of that. But it does give you that helpful entry signal rather than the exit signal here. But it makes a really good point.

[00:21:11]>> Yeah. Exactly. And and it it it for me is the the the big difference is that keeping the slow longer term one cuz cuz what happens is if they're both slow, >> they're both slow to cross over. And if they're both fast, they're actually both slow to cross over cuz if if both of them are fast, when they turn, they both turn.

[00:21:32]>> So by the time they cross, they're too late.

[00:21:34]>> So by having the slow longerterm one is just saying, look, this is the average of all trading in the last 20 months period.

[00:21:41]>> It's that's what it is. X period. This is the midpoint of all of that.

[00:21:45]>> And then you're saying, right, but I still I respect the short-term moves rather than worrying about what happened 10 weeks ago. I'm more interested in cuz markets are so fast, >> you want a quick signal. So, I find that that combination gives me better signals over and over.

[00:22:02]>> Yeah. Anyway, as a little technical aside, for people at home, it's worth checking that out because I do think that is a really great way to find faster signals within the noise. Um, but yeah, anyway, I think we've got a number of different ways we can talk about. I think the biggest one I want to kind of touch on this week, we've been mentioned it last week, is the strong little center we're seeing right now, which is copper. Copper's still a great bid. And last week, we even tipped a stock, South 32. It's up 10% in a week, isn't it? So there. So there we go, guys. We are giving you the golds. But yeah, so South >> Don't talk about the ones that don't work.

[00:22:35]>> Don't talk about uh Sandfire Resources also up 10%. Uh Capstone Copper up 12.

[00:22:41]and Rio's, you know, chugged along around 2 and a half% 2.3%. So there's a lot of strength there and obviously that ties into what I mean UBS called the bleeding center of this current rally which is data centers, right? We're still seeing strength within Goodman Group and Next DC. I mean they've got you know billions of dollars in works and produce right now. We've got >> there is definitely a bid and as we were saying it's interesting because there is so much weakness. It's giving a a nice signal. The companies that are actually holding up or trending in this market, you're getting a bit of a because when everything's going up, it's like, well, everything's going up. Which one is it?

[00:23:18]Is it really good? But if everything's getting hammered and there's a couple of sectors that are looking good, it's like, oh, that's a real sign cuz if everything's stabilized, I'll probably really go.

[00:23:29]>> So, um, there is that in that data center space. I've got a few on on the, um, watch list that I'm interested in.

[00:23:35]>> Yeah, there's a lot of strength there.

[00:23:36]Yeah, >> I mean especially we've seen the so the socks the Philadelphia um chip index >> it has tripled in it since it yearly lows back you know the end of was it May March last year or something like that it's absolutely flying uh we're seeing it maybe lose a little bit of steam recently but it's still you know breaking record highs it's silly what's going on >> beating of what's coming so you got the on semi yeah look at one of these >> these names >> just so people can know what's actually >> vertical is The long and short of it, everything is vertical.

[00:24:08]>> That's that's what you're seeing. Yeah.

[00:24:10]Just um amazing.

[00:24:11]>> So, a lot of strength there. Um we're seeing that kind of tie into the names at home.

[00:24:17]>> Is there anywhere else you think people should be looking where you're seeing any strength?

[00:24:21]>> Well, the whole robotics space is I'm still It's not ASX.

[00:24:26]>> Yeah, it's not ASX. I know there is. But no, it is definitely um >> yeah, copper is where I'm I've just actually recently entered a copper like so I'm not buying much. I've got a we've got a small portfolio. This is retirement trader.

[00:24:39]>> We sold out a lot in January, February.

[00:24:42]I'm still picking up a few things but not much. And the the last company I bought was a actually a mid-tier copper stock.

[00:24:49]>> Yeah. Um because I I I think it it makes sense that long term I just want to be picking them up and and I think the breakout in copper could once it goes surprise everyone.

[00:25:01]>> Yeah.

[00:25:01]>> It's just been stuffing around for so long. I feel like it could just trend and trend and trend and have everyone scratching their head going, "Oh my god."

[00:25:07]>> I also picked up a mid-tier copper producer in my portfolios as well. So we're on the same same range without even chatting about it. It's funny. I think one other thing I want to highlight is a little bit of strength we've seen this week early on is coal coal stocks. I'm not I mean neither of us are really in coal. It's kind of one of those things where I'm like I don't know if I want to get amongst the coal but it is worth noting you know for people at home there are there is strength there. We've seen I think it was in Shani province in China a massive explosion. I sadly like 80 plus people were killed. Uh it was a big producer. I think it's 1.2 million tons perom out of that. So with a big coal mine offline, we're seeing a big bid into the local producers. White Haven, Yan Cole, as you see here, jumping in the last little bit. So >> So that's only just that little >> that's only that last little bit there.

[00:25:53]But there's some serious strength. I mean, this has been a play. We mentioned it briefly during looking good >> the beginning of um the straight of Hormuz crisis because obviously >> a lot of the Southeast Asian market has been heavily reliant on um LNG on our gas right they had installed multi-billion dollar terminals all over the place and then they couldn't get the gas so they're to to recover from their energy wos their their cost oil cost woes of this crisis they're just overrunning their coal plants at the moment There's this huge demand of coal coming out of Southeast Asia that these guys are really catching the bed for. So >> yeah. Right. Well, that's a nice strong trend in that one. That's that probably looks a lot better than um the yan coal.

[00:26:36]>> Yeah.

[00:26:37]>> Um that and that's probably a little bic signal going on there.

[00:26:39]>> Great there.

[00:26:40]>> Um yep.

[00:26:41]>> Whereas on the other end, weakness in rare earths. We've seen a number of rare earths kind of starting to look a little bit wobbly. We had Arafura announce it final investment decision.

[00:26:49]>> Interesting. That one >> dropped about 12% on the capital raise.

[00:26:52]>> Well, it's doing the 26, but this could be the final one. It could be the final.

[00:26:56]And you've got a huge amount of money. I think it was 88 million of the 280 odd million that they're raising coming from Hancock. So, it's coming from Gina Reinhardt, the >> world I was going to say the world's richest, not Australia's richest lady.

[00:27:10]Um, so there's a lot of money backing that play, but who knows where it goes from here.

[00:27:14]>> Yeah. Well, if you do like it, getting in on the final capital raise >> is the is a good idea.

[00:27:19]>> And and it's being hammered because of the capital raise and it's gone back actually to the capital. So you're paying what Hancock is paying.

[00:27:26]>> Yeah.

[00:27:27]>> Cuz it's fallen down there.

[00:27:28]>> So >> So check it out.

[00:27:29]>> If you like it, it's um something to think about.

[00:27:31]>> Weakness >> if you can put in the bottom drawer.

[00:27:33]>> Also being seeing the edge of weakness within lithium. We've seen spoamine prices roll over recently with a bit a bit of um production coming back online in China. We're also seeing a lot of volatility in uranium. We've been shaken out of a few positions there. At the same time though, I mean, are you any comments on it? I've just been rambling.

[00:27:50]>> Well, yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, your uranium I I'm I've sort of left for the moment because it doesn't it's not quite going yet. I'm still bullish and long, but we bought years ago, have taken part profits, and I'm sort of leaving it and and and thinking, look, long term, I like it, >> but it's just not shooting the lights out right now.

[00:28:09]>> Um, so the market's looking elsewhere and it's just not there's not enough tension in the actual >> um market. The long-term contracts have maybe been done. There was some recent news with um the Saskatchewan a big uh storm there taking out one of the main highways or main bridges to Chemico's big mine there. So maybe some shorter term supply things, but it's always a slow story with uranium. So it's one of those things that I still following, but right now we're seeing a weakness there.

[00:28:34]>> Yeah, I'm just looking elsewhere at the moment because it's just not um jumping out at me, I guess.

[00:28:38]>> Yeah, I mean there's a lot there's a lot of things where it's like >> and and and the corrections in in gold and um Bitcoin. We were talking the other week about Bitcoin saying it's quite interesting to bring it up.

[00:28:49]>> Should we show we show Bitcoin as a as a final taste?

[00:28:51]>> Yeah. Uh because it was looking strong and and I maybe people remember I was saying look it does look strong and I think thought it could rally but there was also a setup which looked like it could actually be a bull trap and so I want to sort of point out how it's been trading since. So, first of all, want to just look at the 200 day moving average because I think it's always important to just have it even though I wouldn't trade off it. I just know that so many people look at it and when a market is trending, thin blue line, >> it's always one to just have your eye on cuz when a market really does break, uh the 200 day will uh snap and the market can sell off uh dramatically. Yeah.

[00:29:34]>> So, so just see over time here. Let's just just go through it. So there's a break of the 200 day there. There's a break above there. There's support there. Lots of work done here. So this is almost where people get shaken out.

[00:29:47]They think it's broken and then it sort of see got resistance through there.

[00:29:51]Then finally it takes off and then a bit of work. So this is why I wouldn't trade it because often it will because everyone's looking at it. It'll often have moments of just really volatile through it because people are getting long if it breaks above or you know >> because it's like it doesn't matter what strategy you're using whether it's an Elliot wave, Fibonacci, however you trade, you're always going to have the 200 moving day average as your kind of baseline benchmark that things will pivot from. So >> it can be a big one because a lot of people look at it. So just noticing here then it finally did break. So this has been a major break of the 200 day moving average and this was the first test of it. So this was when it was we were talking and it was rallying and I was saying look well there's your old breakdown level so that's a big resistance level. Also you got the 200 day moving average coming in there. It's like okay it looks good but beware >> that if it's going down because you always play devil's advocate with yourself. Okay, I like this. Looks good.

[00:30:48]But if I was what would what would I see if I was looking the other way? And if you look the other way and you go, well, actually that could also look pretty bad in itself. If I was bearish, I'd be selling there, you know. Um, so if I look up a bit uh closer as well and just show you on the weekly, I'll get rid of all that stuff just to show you what I was saying at the time of looking at the wave, this the LA most recent down wave and saying, "Okay, it is actually trending down."

[00:31:17]>> So, and it's been quite weak cuz this first wave, right, the rally only went to there before selling off again.

[00:31:25]>> So, that's a sign that's very weak. So that's like it's got absolutely hammered, then it's rallied for a bit, and then the selling's come in again. So that's like, oh, this was a real serious sell-off that's just occurred. So you're saying, right, I need a bit of proof that it's turning around. And so there's your next wave. That's why I saying, look, it's sort of this is a point of control. If it's weak, it's going to turn down from there. It could have gotten up to there and still got hammered. I mean, that may still happen, but it is just turning down back below the moving averages. If this weekly trend turns back down, all of a sudden it can look like it's still in this downtrend.

[00:32:03]>> Yeah.

[00:32:03]>> Uh you know, so it's just it looked that's that's why the other week I just wanted to point out why I said, "Oh, look, just be a bit careful here because there is still lots of resistance around and it's been a very serious selloff.

[00:32:16]>> So just it may not be finished yet."

[00:32:19]>> Yeah, it's a good point. Yeah, >> for me it's almost like an early warning system for liquidity, liquidity in the market, right? Because we're seeing a lot of people um especially Michael Howard noting that um global liquidity is starting to roll over, especially US liquidity and if you don't have liquidity, it's not going into a speculative bid like BTC. So does seem like it's that way, but >> it is feeling that liquidity thing is going and gold is even moving down. So, so it's sort of um >> 4 500 range roughly US >> and we've been saying the last few weeks just uh you know um it's just looking a bit toppy and and it can keep selling off here. So, um uh you know it's not all lights out but you know weekly downtrend um it had a bit of a bad day yesterday.

[00:33:06]>> Yeah. With on news that there was potentially some progress within the peace talks with Iran with uh Scott Bessent saying something. But, you know, it's all it's all here say at this point for me. I don't know.

[00:33:16]>> And so, you got the beginning of a downtrend potentially and you know, so it's gone here, resistance. Does it is it going to do that? So, you just got to be wary of that. It could >> um continue on to the downside there.

[00:33:30]So, I'm just keeping an eye on that. I I haven't bought back in and I'm I'm out and um just a little wary that people could be surprised about how low it goes before it is a buy again.

[00:33:41]>> Fair. Well, I feel like that was a whirlwind trip of bearishness with a few touches of bullishness in there, >> which means the market will be up 5% next week.

[00:33:49]>> Yeah. Yeah. So, thank you all so much for watching. Don't forget if you've got any interested stocks, you want to throw them down in the comments. We'll take a look at those next week. Um, but until then, have a great week and we'll see you then.

[00:34:00]>> See you later.