In sideways markets, traders can identify support and resistance levels to make profitable trades; for example, when the Nifty was trading between 23,300 and 23,800, traders could take short positions near 23,800 and long positions near 23,300, with volatility indicators remaining flat suggesting continued consolidation before a directional move.
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Every morning, the countdown begins for the markets with meticulous research and analysis designed to help you capitalize on the trading day. Beaming live from the CNBC TV8 Motilal Oswald studio.
Good morning. You're with us here on a fresh new edition of Bazar Morning Call.
We are coming to you live from the CNBC TV8 Mut Roseal studios. It's a Friday, end of the week. Markets of course are in wait and watch mode. No real catalyst in that sense and I think yesterday's closed perfectly symbolized that you know off the lows but didn't know where to go. I'm Prashant with me. My colleagues Mangalum and Rema guys. Hi money.
>> Hi morning. We don't have much to show for the week. In the last 5 days, the nifty is up only 11 points. And for the last seven trading sessions, we've closed between that 23,600 to 23,700.
So, >> yep, that's what we're going to do. You know, irrespective of the news, if you just followed the price, you would know that as we move towards 22 23,3300, there is a bounce invariably and as we move towards 23,800, there is supply.
But uh be that as it may, the thing that stood out for me yesterday overnight was uh what Walmart's commentary said.
>> And typically Walmart's price action as a ratio to all the other luxury companies in the US that suggests that there could be economic slowdown because every time the Walmart market cap as a ratio to all the other luxury goods market cap goes higher to a certain level, it indicates some slowdown. And the last time it was at these levels was despite the 7% down tick was closer to 2008. Don't want to say that but that's what it was.
>> Okay. Well, uh basically people downtrading uh and buying cheaper in that sense. Well, we'll track that and more. Let's just take it from the top in terms of what you need to know as we start this new session. Oil's at 105 odd dollars a barrel$145.
So, hopes of a US Iran agreement soon.
Uh soon is the critical bit. How soon?
Iran said that the latest US proposal and this is important because you know we keep hearing from US's side uh and there could be this there could be that either or etc etc it's always you know this is possible but that is also possible but you know we don't hear that much from the Iranian side but we did Bloomberg carried a report quoting a top Iranian uh government official saying that the latest US proposal uh partly brided the gap between the between both sides. So, and I think that's what got markets a little excited. Uh, and and I'll come to price action in a bit. By the way, between when we closed yesterday and I mean, you know, US markets traded, there were reports that Iran and this came earlier actually that Iran is the Iran supreme leaders ordered that enriched uran uranium is going to is is has to be within Iran.
And, you know, prices spiked. Oil prices I think went up about 2 3% or so. So this all happened while we were closed and US was yet to start uh trading but that report was later denied. Uh so I mean it didn't last. The price action did not last. Uh apparently Iran is discussing with Oman which is essentially the the country you know facing it across the Persian Gulf. Uh and and discussing how to set up some form of a permanent toll system over the straight of Hormuz. This is you know they got a Twitter handle going. That's a start. But will it work and how will it happen and all of that stuff right?
Apparently Iran is discussing this with with Oman. Of course, the US has said this is unacceptable. Trump has rejected the idea and we've got it on tape. We'll play it in a bit. We want it open. We want it free. We don't want any tolls.
Uh to be expected. Now, US equities rallied into close. Uh the S&P, by the way, it was down and then it picked up from there, but 0.17% higher. Nvidia was down 1.8. Walmart was down 7% on weaker forecasts. So that's the price action there. Uh the 10-year lost two basis points not very much 4 and a half odd percent or so. By the way, US treasuries market closed early later today on Friday, Monday. Of course, markets are shut Memorial Day uh in the US. So US markets are out. Uh so that's the global picture. So we are still in the state which is no war, no peace. Uh it's a stalemate and we're waiting for something to happen, something to move.
And that's essentially what the price action is indicating. So markets are not markets are refusing to stay down but I mean after a certain point they don't know whether they should go up. Rupee by the way has rebounded uh to 9620.
So and by the way this has happened over a 24-hour period. The low all was almost 97 from the brink of 97 we are back at about 9620 which is quite impressive. Uh there was that swap which was announced but that's not the whole whole of it. uh there was of course the oil price fall of about 5% which I think helped at the margin. It came around the 969 96 90 kind of level. So then I mean you know that got pushed back uh and markets of course are still waiting for what else we will see. There was a story yesterday that everything is under consideration bonds deposit scheme etc etc. Now u nifty needs to get past 23 the levels remain the same. You know the only thing which has happened is the range was higher earlier the up the on the upside 24300 was uh the the uh level on the upside and 23800 on the downside. So the market kept flitting between these levels for a while. Now it's basically down 23300 on the downside and 23800 is the uh is is the upper end of this particular new range which is shifted a little lower. So we need to get past 23800 for anything uh good to come out of it. And of course on the downside 23300 should be the support. 23 points.
It's a flattish kind of start for what's been a flattish kind of week for indices so far. Mangalam has walked across to the wall with the futures and options positioning and how to look at it.
Mangalam over to you.
>> Well, if you look at the news and then you look at the price moves, you would realize that the nifty over the last couple of weeks has been oscillating in this 23250 to 23850 sort of range. Why do I say that? Just look at the market moves over the last couple of weeks on May 13th, May 18th and May 20th. the day's low 23262 23 317 23 397 from these levels there was a recovery of anywhere between 150 to 330 points now as we moved higher if you had the days like May 14 May 15 yesterday as well and May 19th as soon as the market moved towards 23777 or beyond 23750 closer to 23850 from those levels we've seen a decline anywhere between 80 to yesterday 200 points as well so it is this range which is playing out what makes the market break down or break out of this range. It is this stroker. Brent currently holding around 105 right now.
No problems. Rupee has strengthened from levels closer to 97 and the US bond yield. So these are the three things that can move the market out or you know above or below this range that we're in right now. The other factor is that the nifty is just very close to its technical resistance is just unable to pass that. Why do I say that? Because the nifty 23654 and you have the 50-day moving average at 23700. the 20-day moving average at 23892. Now, look at all the three major movers of the Nifty, the major components. The Nifty Bank, 53, 4439, just 200 points from here, we have, you know, the 50-day moving average. A little more than that, we have the 20-day moving average as well.
So, slightly higher levels on the Nifty Bank, we have technical resistances. The IT index 2921, we have the 50-day 20-day moving average, which is just crossed and the 50-day moving average is about 600 points from here on as well. So as the IT index moves or as the nifty bank moves, we have resistances coming in there as well. And finally, the third element, reliance. 1350 is the stock price. 1376 and 1385 are both the 50 and the 20-day moving averages. So Nifty very close to technical resistance and three of its components also very close to technical resistances. Either of them move out and then we see the markets moving higher and that's perhaps the reason why the FIS continue to sell this market right now. You know, yesterday as well close to around 1350 cr sold in index futures. Their long positions have been at 12%. In fact, over the last three trading sessions, they've added nearly 22,000 short contracts for just about 800 long contracts and uh their net exposure at negative 2.3 lakh contracts is closer to what we've seen at the lower level for this market itself. Uh if there is any up move, there is a ample fuel for the market to rally up ahead as well. Just a final thing if you look at the options data 23800 call premium of 100 rupees 23700 put premium of 200 rupees what does this give you the range between 23500 to 23900 so is the options data telling you that the support for the market has moved higher and the resistance also moved towards 23900 perhaps yes the two stocks that I'll be watching out for today and as a result of which the entire pack of all the new age listed companies are Nika and Honasa both of them have reported their best ever performance since listing the stocks are well off their post-listing highs. So, let's see where they go. I'm expecting an up move on these stocks, but more importantly, the entire new age company pack.
>> Thank you very much for that. Let's get back then to the developments from West Asia. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says there are some good signs as mediated peace talks with Iran are progressing, but added that US President Donald Trump has made it clear other options are available if a deal is not reached. Listen in.
I believe uh the Pakistanis will be traveling to Thran today. So hopefully that'll advance this further. The president's preference is to do a good deal. That's his preference. It's always been his preference. If we can get a good deal done, that would be great. I'm not here to tell you that it's going to happen for sure, but I'm here to tell you that we're going to do everything we can to see if we can get one. But if we can't get a good deal, the president's been clear. He has other options. I'm not going to elaborate on what those are, but everybody knows what those are.
But his preference is always a deal. His preference is always an agreement. his preference is always diplomacy. So, um let's see if we can get there. Um there's some good signs, but we understand this. I don't want to be overly optimistic as well. So, let's see what happens over the next few days.
And on the straight of Horus, US president said he wanted the tolls to be taken out and added that no ship would go through Iran without US's approval.
The US Secretary of State also backed Trump's comments, saying that no one was in favor of a tolling system. The president's comments come even as Iran creates a new Persian Gulf Gulf Strait authority to control maritime activity at the Straight of Hormus. Listening to what Trump had to say.
>> Well, we want it open. We want it free.
We don't want tolls. Uh it's international. It's an international waterway. They're not charging tolls. Uh right now they are losing $500 million a day is what it's projected. I don't know. Sounds like a lot of money, but whether it's 500 or 200 or 300, they're losing a lot of money. There hasn't been a ship that's been able to get through without our approval. And uh the Navy has done an amazing job. And uh no ship is going to Iran, as you know. No ship is going to or out of Iran without our approval.
>> Okay. Well, uh that's the straight of hormone story, right? But uh you heard Secretary of State Marco Rubio earlier on the Iran situation. But Rubio is headed here to India. This is the US Secretary of State's first visit to New Delhi. Marco Rubio said that Washington wants to sell India as much energy as they'll buy as uncertainty grows over disruptions of course in the trade.
Listening to some of his comments that >> well we want to sell them as much energy as they'll buy. And obviously you've seen I think we're at historic levels of US production and US export. We want to be able to do more. We were already in talks with them to do more. We want that to be a bigger part of their uh of their portfolio. We also think there's opportunities with Venezuelan oil. Um in fact, it's my understanding that uh the interim president of Venezuela will be traveling to India next week uh as well.
So, um there's opportunities. There's a lot to work on with India. They're a great ally, a great partner. We do a lot of good work with them. And so, it is an important trip. I'm glad we're able to do it because I think there'll be a lot for us to talk about. And we'll also meet with a quad there, which is important. It's something I think my first meeting as Secretary of State was with the Quad. So, um I I believe like I went I got sworn in, I did the thing in the in the lobby and then I went right upstairs and that was my first meeting and I'm glad you were able to do it now in India and we're going to do one later in the year as well.
>> Okay. Well, uh you know that'll be an interesting visit uh the Secretary of State visit to India. There was a bit about the trade agreement etc as well and how teams are going to be visiting each other over the next one month etc. But nevertheless we'll watch it closely.
Now let's welcome in our first voice on the program global as always Adity Bhav is head of US economics at Bofer Global Research. Um Adita great to have you with us here on the program. Thanks very much for joining us. Uh and I want to just start with what happened earlier this week. It's it's it's cooled off since but global bond deals right and the move they've made uh is you know the consensus view is that the temp energy shock is temporary but markets are repricing higher or at least trying to is going to be sustainable you think what's it led by thanks for having me on I think it's a combination of factors that are driving yields up the first one obviously as you mentioned is the energy shock and the expected impact on infl inflation both for the headline which presumably will be a little bit less sticky but larger and then also for the core where the impact could come with a little bit of a lag and it'll be a little bit smaller but at the same time those sorts of shocks can be a little bit sticky sometimes. So it's that but it's also just broad concerns of around deficits across developed markets. basically there's a demographic problem across DM across the world and that's bad for deficits and there are no clear solutions right now. So I think those two factors are driving the front end and the back end of global rates respectively.
>> Adita hi thanks for joining in. So what's the house view in terms of where we are headed? The US 10year and the 30-year heels say by the end of 2026 or through 2026.
>> The house view for from our rate strategists is that the 10year will stay around 4.25% essentially for the next couple years.
The risk to that especially in the last several weeks are to the upside. It depends on several factors, right? It depends on how we're thinking about long-term inflation expectations. I think long-term expectations have remained relatively anchored. And from my perspective, that's probably because there is this underlying faith in markets that regardless of what's going on in the Middle East right now, a few years down the line, the big story is going to be the productivity boom from AI, and that's going to be disinflationary. So, long-term inflation expectations haven't really moved. I think what's happening right now is the rerating of neutral rates. Right? So is it the case that the neutral rate in the US isn't 3% as the Fed has been saying, but rather it's 3 and a half 4%. We are quite sympathetic to that view. So from that perspective, if your real rate essentially moves up to let's call it 1 and a half 2%, then that's going to push up long-term yields, >> right? Uh so what does the Fed do in response to all of this? That's the basic question.
>> We think the Fed sits on its hands for as long as it possibly can until its hands are really forced by the data. So the challenge for the Fed right now is that the breadth of shocks that the US economy is facing is truly unprecedented. So on the supply side, you're dealing with the conflict in the Middle East. You're dealing with the labor supply story because of changes in immigration policy. You're dealing with tariffs which are still not fully resolved. You also have a positive supply shock in the pipeline from adoption of AI as we talked about earlier. And then on the demand side, fiscal stimulus is working its way through the economy. And you have the AI investment boom. So if you look at the recent data, they've obviously been quite resilient. markets have moved from, I would say, a narrative of stagflation to a narrative of reflation.
So, more of a demand boom type story, consistent with what you're seeing in corporate earnings, consistent with what you're seeing in the resilience of consumer spending. But we knew we were going to get some strength in spending from fiscal stimulus. So, I think the true test of the resilience of the economy is still down the line. And it may be more of a story for the late spring or even the summer, maybe even the early fall because these these shocks tend to work their way through consumer spending somewhat slowly. I would say the Fed still doesn't know, doesn't have conviction on whether this is stagflation or reflation and the policy responses to those are obviously different. So for now they just wait and see.
>> Uh Adita, the new Fed chair will take over soon, right? where and which asset class does this show up uh in a pronounced way first?
>> His recent comments have been very doubbish, which is interesting.
Historically, he's been quite a staunch inflation hawk, but of late, he's made the case that the Fed should be cutting rates, that perhaps it's overreacting right now to the error it made in 202122 where it was a bit slow to raise rates.
He's also said that the Fed should look ahead to the productivity shock that we were talking about, the boom in productivity that's that's presumably down the line. And to accommodate that, since we know it's going to be disinflationary, the Fed should cut rates. Now, these arguments have gotten a lot more challenging given the increase in inflation. I think the rest of the committee really has no appetite to cut rates right now. I don't know even if Worsh wants to cut rates right now because the environment has changed so much since he was nominated. The 10-year yield is up about 30 to 40 basis points since he got nominated. The 2-year yield is up more than 50 basis points. We've gone from pricing cuts to pricing hikes. So I think the world in which we last heard from him which was really before his nomination would be very different from the world that he inherits on Friday or when he gives his first speech or press conference or whatever. So there's a good amount of uncertainty. I think that there's going to be his first speech is going to be a big market mover because we're all waiting to learn from him, you know, what he wants to do now after the conflict in the Middle East started. The other thing I should mention is his views on the balance sheet. Uh he wants to cut the balance sheet. He realizes that's going to be quite challenging and they only will be able to do it to the extent that they can do liquidity deregulations. But he has also said that he wants to move the uh the the comp composition of the balance sheet into treasury bills. So front-end instruments and get the Fed out of longer end instruments which I think there is actually a good amount of support on the committee for >> we'll leave it there. Uh good speaking with you. Thank you very much and good luck with the conference. Uh and uh this is just I mean you know the first of the many conversations you will see here on CNBC TV8 from the with the Bofa team.
Thank you once again. Well, let me just quickly run you through the interactions which are lined up here in the program.
8:35 we've got the management of IGO joining us to talk about uh you know the business environment which is also looking a little tougher I guess but Aluk Bachay will be with us to talk about that. 9:00 we'll have Rajes Ravi of HDFC security cement and focus is a deal uh there as well. 920 Ranagupta manual life investment management is the market master 940 VAT tech interesting company always we'll get them we'll ask them where the new orders coming from management of healthcare global enterprises uh will be with us at 9:50 on their fourth quarter numbers and outlook and LTA will be speaking with us l will be of course hosting the Indianomics segment with Anandaran and Middul Sager on of course I mean what else but uh you know what the market is waiting for with regards to measures to defend the rupee and if something will come. Something is imminent. That's the lineup >> indeed. And we'll take a short break, but a lot of stock specific action that we have to track today. We'll get to it in just a bit in our special top 10 segment. But uh for a quick break, we have Marati Suzuki, Dalmiah, Orbunda, Pharma, LIIC, Hunasa Consumer, Nika, and PTM. All of them on the back of positive news flow. On the back of negative news flow, we have Max Healthcare, Gail and LG Electronics.
Welcome back. It's a Friday morning.
It's time to talk about stocks. Our entire research team is standing by with CNBC TV18's list of top stocks for the day. Let's begin with Marauti. Hi guys, good morning. But sudashan price hikes on the anvil for Maruti. There was an indication in the analyst call that we had got from mouth that they will be announcing price hike very soon and finally company has come out and announced price hike and that is up to rupees 30,000 effective from June of 2026 and now this is done amid rising input cost remember in Q4 also the increased input cost had impacted a bit margin of the company by 80 basis points so to pass on the certain extent of those commodity cost company has gone ahead to increase the increase the prices by up to rupees 30,000 so might be taken positively that's the reason I'm going with green for mai >> uh okay well so thanks very much uh for that Dalmia Bharat is what we want to address and so it's back to you >> so remember Adani group had acquired JPSO assets under IBC that is insolveny and bankruptcy code and now this Dalmia bhad earlier also they had tried acquiring certain assets of JPSO Now for the second time they have got lucky and now they are acquiring around four plants one of them is Madh Pradesh remaining three are in Uttar Pradesh and they will be acquiring and that's including capex deal value as $167 per ton financing will be done via mix of debt internal acral and timeline is within next two weeks so what all they will get so total capacity of cement 5.2 2 MTPA that is million tons peranom and clinker capacity of 3.3 million tons peranom and enterprise value of the daily 28 2850 cr rupees. Now why is it positive for DMA? Because it gets an access to central markets moves towards becoming a panindia player and the total capacity is going to rise to 66.7 million tons per anom by Q2 or Q3 of FY20. So overall it's looking positive for DNA >> right Sudashan thanks a lot for that. So this deal positive for Dalmia Bharat.
Let's go across to Aka Max Health. How are the numbers?
>> Well, a bit subdued this time round. So the revenue was up around 10 odd%. The margins dipped on a year-on-year basis and the profit came in at a 3% growth.
The share of oncology dropped to 21% versus 26% uh due to the discontinuation of select chemo drugs under for their institutional patients. margins were lower because clinician patient costs went up around 230 basis points year and year. What did work was that the IBITA per bit saw a Q improvement this time.
Max Labs revenue was up around 14 odd% and max at home revenue was up around 30% on a year-on-year basis. More details at 11:00 a.m. when they do have their call.
>> Thank you very much for that. Over to Sonel now for Gail.
Uh well, Gil reported what was a weak set. Yes, weakness was expected, but it was even weaker than expectations. On a quarter-on quarter basis, yes, revenues are up 2% but a sharp fall in Eida down around 56%, margins haved on a quarter-on quarter basis. Profits are also down 21% to come at 1262 cr rupees.
Uh the force majour announced by a lot of these gas producing companies is something that hit profitability for Gale. Uh that's why the natural gas marketing loss came in higher at 151 cr rupees. This has largely been a profit-making uh segment for the company. Gas transmission did well 1881 cr rupees because there was a tariff hike as well that came by but the pet cam loss continued at 377 cr rupes. Uh going with red because the gas supply issues continue but of course we'll get more clarity from the management on the conference. Call >> that point. Thanks a lot for that. Let's go back to eka orbindu farmer number slightly better >> largely in line with estimates you would have to say revenue up around 5.6% street was anticipating a 4% growth margins came in at 19.2% 2% versus expectations of around 19.9% and the profit came in at 920 crores. Street was anti anticipating 916 crores. US was down 13% which was expected because they don't have relevant generic um in terms of the amount of competition. It's increased a lot for that drug. EU was up around 30 odd percent. So that did very well. Growth markets was up around 25% for the company this time round as well.
call at 8:30 a.m. Based on just these numbers, I expect the stock to be in the green, but the commentary will obviously change the trajectory.
>> Thank you very much for that. Yes, LIC.
>> Well, the numbers for LIC seem to be very strong for the fourth quarter on all parameters. Of course, the numbers have been much ahead of the street estimates ahead of the CNBC TV18 poll.
On a year-on-year basis, also the numbers have shown a very strong growth.
New business premium growing by about 20%, it's a beat to CNBC TV18 poll.
Total AP growing by 22% again a beat on CNBC TV18 poll. Group A AP growing by about 36% retail AP by 16% growth. Both coming ahead of CNBC TV18 poll. VNB shown a very strong growth about 67% growth and margins growing by nearly nearly 700 basis points. On the margins particularly the expectation was 21.26%.
26% what the company's delivered is 25.66%.
So a top down beat of course topline doing really well in terms of AP and retail AP and group AP growth and the quality of the business also VNB and margins doing very well. The stock hasn't done anything in the last 3 months it's down about 10% in the last 3 months flat in the last one month.
Expect the stock to be in green today on these strong set of numbers.
>> Thank you. It's not done anything in the last one year. It's down nearly 5%. and Bash thank you very much for that joins in for more on LG electronics >> well overall it was a weak quarter for the company revenue was largely in line but the margins impact stood much below than what the street was anticipating now if I took up talk about Q4 revenue growth it stands at 8% which was d uh driven by demand recovery across the segments which was much in line with the guidance provided by the company that is high singledigit to double digit after Q3 home appliances the key segment % of the companies where the key drag comes from. Here the revenue growth stands at just about 6% while home entertainment has delivered a strong growth of 20% on earonar driven by the rising demand for high-end TVs on the back of the IPL which certainly spurred the demand. Now coming to the margins of the company the margins were under pressure 230 bips down at 11.7% due to elevated prices and even currency fluctuation. Now again if I this is much lower than the implied margin guidance given by the company which is around 12.5 to 13.5%. Now overall if I talk of of the FI26 numbers the revenue stood flat much in line with the guidance and EIDA margins here is under pressured at 9.8% versus 12.8% versus the guidance of low double digit given by the company. So going with a red on this one on the back of weak margins.
All right, thanks a lot for that. I'm looking at Honasa. Uh, good results coming in. In fact, uh, you know, the operating leverage has finally begun to show. They've reported their highest EITA and net profit since listing.
Street was anticipating that the stock has seen a rally in the recent past. 23% revenue growth, gross margins maintaining. Look at the AITA that's actually seen a near 200% growth from 27 crores all the way up to 77 crores. And we've seen the profit after tax as a result of which jumping from 25 crores to 69 crores as well. Even the internals the underlying volume growth coming in at around 30%, ad spends as a percentage of sales have reduced. Other expenses have reduced. So that's operating leverage coming in and adjusted revenue the company says is higher by 28% if you account for the change in revenue recognition by one of their clients Flipkart. That is Mammoth Earth reported teens growth. The younger brands grew by about 40%. So going with green on Honasa. Similar is the case for Nika as well. If you look at Nika you know Jeffre calls it a flawless beauty. Well, uh, 28% revenue growth, 67% AITA growth, margins expanding by nearly 200 basis points and the net profit nearly quadrupling from 20 crores all the way up to 80 crores will uh, you will have to call it flawless beauty because you know the beauty segment 27% revenue growth, 50% AITAR growth. So margins have improved out there. Fashion which was supposed to be you know a business where operating leverage would start kicking in their losses have narrowed from 36 crores to about 8 crores. So that's a positive as well. and their own brands have done a lot better. Crossed 3,176 crores in revenue for this entire year in gross merchandise value. So all these factors point towards green for both Honasa as well as Nika. Remember both these new age companies have been off their post-listing highs by a bit as well. So see some uh you know confidence coming back to these stocks.
>> I think easier to title a report on Nika, right? I mean lots lots you can do with word play there. Flawless beauty.
tallest beauty even for Honasa you can say that >> all right well let's h talk about PTM now right and Sud is back with us so it's got a heavy load today uh block deal s >> so the book is likely launched to sell the shares in PTM or say 197 communications and this was this is launched by SAF partner which holds more than 30 13% stake as of March shareholding pattern and now they are selling 86 lakh share that forms 1.3% equity deal value is 960 60 cr and floor price is rupes 1120.65% 65% which is a discount of 3% to current market price and lock in per is 30-day but I'm going with green because the deal I say block deal is likely to happen in block window >> okay thank you very much for that and lots other stocks also you should keep on your radar like avarun beverages or even some of these PSU banks like central bank where the they are looking at some fund raise let's talk about commodities now Manisha is joining in with a complete roundup Manisha >> thank you so much for that I'll start with the crude oil prices where we've seen a bit of a rebound coming in yet again. Overnight was 2% of a decline and with that for this week the food prices are down by nearly 4%. Contradicting statements coming in from US and Iran especially Iran which is ordering enriched uranium reserves to remain in the country. Iran is also reportedly working with Oman on a framework for a permanent system at straight of foremost is something that is keeping the prices higher yet again. $100 a barrel is now has been holding for a long time now.
And if you look at the current quarter average, well that comes in at around $105. And so that is where we are looking at into the markets there. So while the crude oil prices headed for a negative week, it clearly is a similar matter for most of the metal prices.
Also, gold is down 2% for the week, silver down 4 1/2% and since the West Asia conflict, gold has declined by 14% while silver is down 20% as well. Copper prices continue to trade quite choppy.
The prices have been under pressure as peace agreement between US and Iran wains. But the rally in AI stocks and expectation that the renewables will see stronger demand going forward is what is keeping copper prices not too far away from its all-time highs.
>> All right. Uh thanks uh very much Manisha for that. Well, uh you know the RBI is not considering any offcycle meeting and it is not uh particularly inclined to use interest rates a hike in interest rates to defend the currency the rupee that is sources close to the RBI told CBC TV8 L is here with details on what she's picked up over to you.
Well, exactly. There's a lot of speculation in the market whether the Reserve Bank, you know, the rapid growth from 96 to 97 will lead to an offcycle uh meeting. Uh the source who's very close to the Reserve Bank emphatically said there's no such plan. In fact, he went on to say that uh the Reserve Bank is not even inclined to use rates uh at uh as a instrument to defend the currency just yet. I mean things can always happen in the future but right now the mood in the reserve bank according to him is not at all like that. The fit the flexible inflation targeting framework itself requires reserve bank to keep CPI at 4% plus or minus 2% and uh to ensure growth is normal. So it it clearly does not look at you it looks at using rates only for inflation. And where are the inflation numbers? The last number we got in April was 3.48. if anything below the 4% mark and even the RBI's forecast for the full year FI27 is 4.6 six again very close to the range well within the range and very close to the target number in fact if you go to FI28 the base effect of 27 can actually keep FI28 even lower the source said and then he also pointed out to the RBI's MPR which is the monetary policy report they put out just before the April policy that MPR as you know has scenarios in a scenario of $95 average crude price for FI27 RBI CPI averaging 5% % again within the uh 2 to 6% range and they envisage growth at 6.7% not a bad number. Uh the source also pointed out to what the Reserve Bank said as recently the Reserve Bank governor said as recently as May 18th at the IMF. He said the Reserve Bank normally looks through the first round of price hikes if it is because of a supply shock which is what the Hurbus trade closure is a supply shock. The governor went on to say we tighten monetary policy that is we hike rates only when the first rate uh price hike leads to rise in wages and therefore rise in uh transportation costs a generalized rise in inflation only then uh the uh interest rate instrument is used and he also pointed out that actually the in April when the RBI met the war was already on and the the uh members the minutes sounded largely doubbish. So he argued very uh strongly that the reserve bank's mood at the moment is not to use rate hikes to defend the rupee.
>> Now there just one thing uh did you have? So the rupee went to almost 97, right? Uh and it's come back to about 9620. So it's a sharp rebound.
>> Uh just just is this all is this RBS supplying dollars? Is this what's what's going on this move this rebound I mean that we've seen and I think in the intervening period we had that 5% cool off in oil as well. So that is the global thing but from a local perspective what's what's been happening >> what we heard I mean we this cannot the PSU banks who intervene on behalf of RBI are small to strict secrecy so they don't let it out but the expectation or the chatter in the market was that reserve bank was also there but people were anyway cutting long dollar positions because of uh the global news after all from 110 to 105 104 a fall in crude was good enough for some people to take profit on long positions.
>> Absolutely. And I think uh uh the the you know we were already sort of cruising 297 and then you had it's typical market action right I mean uh and then that's when the eel big jump in yields happened and you know you came into that morning it was two days back and you thought oh boy I mean this is the absolutely the wrong time and as as it happens so often that you know we made a low and then we kind of sort of bounced off those levels because I mean uh there was that buffer because we'd already lost quite a bit and maybe uh the inclination was to take some profits here. We'll see. But as Lata tells us, sources in RBI saying that uh you know rates is not the instrument that is on their on the RBI's mind at this point.
No offcycle meeting to do that as well.
We'll take a break. We're back.
>> Sources close to RBI >> sources close to RBI. Uh absolutely.
Well, uh IGO management on the fourth quarter numbers and the outlook on the other side. Stay tuned.
Welcome back. Let's get to corporate conversations then. Ixigo, that's the first management on the show reported a soft set of fourth quarter numbers obviously on account of two things. One, the impact of West Asia crisis and secondly remember the high base of Mahakum in the same time last quarter.
So to discuss this and more and more importantly what they're doing with artificial intelligence as well. Aluk Bachai who's the chairman MD at Ixigo joins us now. Aloc always a pleasure speaking with you. You know when you started last year you were fairly optimistic of a near 40% GTV but you ended this year with a 25 26% sort of gross transaction value in your overall business. Now that the West Asia crisis saw its full bloom in the first quarter, what's the impact that you've seen in the quarter which is currently on and by virtue of that what can you guide for for the entire year?
>> Hi uh thank you for having me on the show. I think u I want to tell the viewers that look travel this year was impacted by a series of uh headwinds uh especially on the flights business where you saw um the beginning of the year you had operation Synindu then you had the uh Indigo crisis uh towards the end of last calendar year and then um last quarter March onwards you saw the impact of the Middle East crisis starting to show um I think uh uh for the train side of our business as well you know there have been series of polic policy changes related to weight list reduction as well as tatkal access for OTAAS. Um you know also you know we've seen uh the fact that there have been changes in uh in how uh you know the system works for Aadhaar verification as well as user reverification etc. So I think some of those things were unanticipated from a market ecosystem perspective but we still managed to grow revenue at uh 34% YI and uh you know we managed to uh come out with some operating leverage YI you know on the uh profit numbers as well.
So I think we are still pretty satisfied with uh the resilient growth that we've posted. I mean especially when you look at the bus business where uh you know yearon-year growth of GTV was uh 46% or the flight business where we grew uh 33% YI on GTV. Uh I think we're pretty satisfied with our growth in those categories and we continue to take market share >> right you know I we don't doubt that there was resilience and there were a lot of headwinds as well. I mean one data point I remember during the IPO I asked you for FI26 will you be able to do 1200 crores of revenue and 70 crores of net profit you said probably yes and despite all the challenges you've gone ahead and met that so kudos to you the question is what next because you know the stock price has seen a fair amount of correction even from the levels at which process bought stake in the company uh so the street wants to know what lies ahead for you in terms of growth and plans if you could give us some forward-looking color on how businesses in the in the current quarter and this year how is it likely to be >> so I'll talk about three things you know the first thing which you mentioned already is AI right so uh I think IGO has been at the forefront of reinventing ourselves with AI and when we say reinvention uh this is not just about you know slapping a layer of chatbot on top of our app right but we've actually gone and put AI at the core of what we do so we we launched IGO next a couple of weeks back uh which is in a way a revolutionary AI I native interface that essentially uh makes AI uh have access to the tools to do things on your behalf, you know. So, not just about finding the best tickets for you or finding the best hotels. It can compare, it can check you in, get you your boarding pass. It can actually go and reconfirm the hotel on your behalf. Uh it can actually also suggest uh based on your constraints, you know, the best kind of trip. uh and and essentially the interface marries beautifully with what the app actually does, right? So it's actually an agentic framework that allows you to use voice or chat to actually do things, right? And not just uh uh get information and and I think uh the direction in which we see ourselves going is to become uh you know what what we call a peace of mind company, right?
And and we said this at the Exigo next launch that Io was never really an OTAA.
We were always uh very very obsessed about how to solve problems before, during and after the trip. A lot of utility apps that gave us all the growth on the train side and the bus side. So we we continue to be obsessed about how do we solve the travel problems holistically using AI at our core and we're reinventing the organization. So when we say reinventing the org, we mean that we are putting AI at the heart of how we do things inside the organization, how we ship products out.
And I think some of that will be visible in the velocity of things that we ship.
Some of that will be visible in the growth that comes from here. Uh and and also hopefully in in the operating leverage line.
>> Yeah. Alokai morning. Uh could you could you just leave us thinks I mean lots of stuff happened right and railways is about 40% of the mix revenue mix for you and there were a lot of changes there as you said. Uh so if everything settles down and hopefully uh fingers crossed we don't know when but maybe this uh you know war etc ends and oil prices are off and uh you know that shows up in ticket prices etc. what just give us with some is there any way to kind of project a give us put out a guidance for F527 at this point >> look I'll not hazard putting out a guidance but what I'll say is that last quarter there was also the aberration of the Maharakum built-in remember the base last year was exceptionally strong uh and even Q1 you know we were the fastest growing company last year uh so there could be some slight base there but I think the the the way I look at the summer season evolving for example, right? Demand continues to remain very strong despite fairs being uh relatively super high, right? Compared to last year, especially on international routes, but even on some domestic routes. What we are also seeing is substitution of demand. So uh you know we see train bookers who are not able to get seats move into the bus funnel. We are seeing flight bookers who are seeing higher fairs move back into the bus and train funnel. Some of that is very unique this year because of the oil prices and how they are impacting uh airfares. Uh the other thing we are seeing is do domestic substitution for people who are looking at international vacations. Some of them are actually substituting those to domestic and that is a net positive for us because we are a very domestic focused company. I think the headline for us this quarter was that when we went for the IPO in 2024 train was the largest business line for us. But if you look at our GTV for last quarter, flight has become the largest part of our business. Bus has become the largest contribution margin driver for our business. So Exigo is no more the same company in many respects from a business mix diversity as it was 2 years ago. uh we actually a pretty well diversified OTAA and hotels is the next big leg that we are focusing all our energy on and I think hopefully sometime in the future you know when we start declaring uh those numbers separately right people will see the kind of growth that we are experiencing.
>> Yeah. Yeah. No absolutely and your investors would look forward to it. I mean you had a a massive move uh to about I think 330 340 kind of levels but stocks come off quite a bit the the market and of course the segment as well because of everything which has been happening all the disruptions etc. Just 10 seconds uh here. Aloc we you spoke about AI opportunity.
We once in a while we hear how these AI companies are building out you know they want to go into uh the real estate advert real estate search side of things. Google for example and maybe I don't know OTAA. Is there any risk which will suddenly emerge one day? Are you seeing anything on the horizon? No or no?
Well actually uh these large language model companies or horizontal companies actually are partnering with us. So we just partnered with chat GPD. You can actually search on exigo confirm ticket and abus and get things done inside the chat GPD app. So I think we're using it as an opportunity.
>> Um I I think the top of the funnel some part of the research and planning might move into these but that was never done on OTAAS anyways. that was always done on uh Google or a bunch of other places and I think uh the the net positive for us is that in that world as long as we can put all that intelligence at the core of our app right people don't need to actually ever you leave our app to find anything else anywhere because we have all that intelligence on the tab sitting inside our app which is available inside the large language models >> all right thanks very much uh Alo appreciate you joining us good luck and it's always a pleasure speaking with you uh so That's uh >> the ego management with perspective.
Deep weather is with us. Elixir equities deepen. Uh good morning. Good to have you with you with us. You know we were just talking about I don't know if you heard that conversation process the technology investor came in at I think at about 270 280 levels. Stocks at about 160 uh and and you know it listed listed at about 140. Uh any any thoughts here?
It's a it's a a beaten down name. It's it's wellrun. He's got large technology investors out there. Of course, times are tough now.
>> Yes. Pashan, first of all, thank you for having me on your show and good morning.
Yeah, I think that um you know the travel agencies are going to have a tough time because of the geopolitical events and of course IGO has got certain strengths in terms of areas where there is I think limited competition and uh I would say higher growth prospects like trains and buses. But valuation wise it is very expensive and this quarter numbers were bit disappointing the growth whatever came in the bottom line was on account of other income but per se we like the travel and tourism space and one of the best way to play it would be through online travel agents but the future disclosure that we and our clients are invested the best pick in our opinion is yatra where valuations are reasonable and it is focusing more on corporate travel and that's a new growth engine for them so compared to make my trip compared to exec And I think there's one more listed player. I think Yatra valuations are attractive and it's growth dynamics also are quite superior.
>> Uh there's some news on LTM. That's LTI MRI. They went through a brand refresh.
So they dropped the eye. So it's LTM now. They've said that they will be acquiring a company called Randstat Technology. It's basically Europe based.
So they have presence in France, uh Germany, uh Austria. The enterprise value according to the press release is $160 million. The acquired company had revenues of about Euro469 million. Uh so just you know once again putting those numbers out the enterprise value of the acquired company is euro 160 million and the acquired company had revenues of €469 million. So it seems to be acquiring at about 3.4 time. LTM >> this is the recruitment company Ranstead >> no it doesn't seem like a recruit because they say that it boosts the presence in aerospace defense automotive utilities VFS in Europe but it's a quit pro code deal so LTM gets the business in Europe it gets those onshore centers but in return LTM will manage Randstad's GCC facility the only thing is this acquired company in calendar year 2023 had revenues of euro 609 million in 2024 it came down to 541 million and last year it was at €469 million. So it's basically come down by close to about 20 odd%. Uh Deb can you make sense of this deal for us?
I think Rema you put it pretty well that I just understand what it brings to the table and I think that a lot of the IT software services companies are looking going to look for such acquisitions to boost their AI presence or to fill up gaps within their offering which they haven't got so far but I I still feel that there will be few winners and many losers within the software services space and I think in a couple of quarters or so it'll become clear which are the companies which are really benefiting and using AI to their uh most advantage and which are the companies which are lagging and where I think there's going to be stress because of too much of overemphasis on legacy systems for such clients.
>> All right, take that point. Uh thanks a lot. Uh Deepan, you know what we'll do is take a short break, come back, we'll continue our conversation with you.
We'll also welcome Videsh Takar and Shikhan Chawan for some of their technical trades and the setup for the market. Uh stay tuned.
Welcome back. You're watching us here on Bazar Morning Call. The gift nifty comes up for you. A mild green start. When we started the show was about 20 points.
Now it's about 50 points. There's a large trade. GSW Cement 3.88 cr shares roughly 3% equity has changed hands in a block window. So we monitor that decent performance coming in in terms of numbers for JSW cement as well. Deepan is still with us. Deepan you know while we were discussing a lot of the companies two results that stood out for me yesterday one of them was Hunasa the other one was Nika. Both of them post listing uh you know in the years that they've been here reported the best ever performance with both companies promising better times ahead in light of the valuations at which these stocks trade and the fact that they're off their highs. Would you look at any of these?
>> Yeah, absolutely, Mangalam. I think that within the FMCG space, these are going to be the new leaders and Nika, of course, as a measure of disclosure, we have a small investment in it, but Honasa is also on our absolute radar.
And uh this is the thing, you know, that they are in categories which are underpenetrated. They're not into soaps and detergents and hair oil and stuff like that. And they're into beauty and personal care products. and they're also they are establishing brands or tying up with brands especially Nika where there's high growth. So I think that they are in a nice sweet spot where they can I think continue to grow at 25 30% or thereabout and valuations are coming down with every quarter because of higher earnings. So within the FMCG space I think these are the two new winners or the new two new players I would say and it would be better to invest in these companies than the traditional FMCG companies like HL or even Godidge or Imami or Dhabber and you see the numbers which come from the old generation FMCG companies very very disappointing. So we have to make that shift from the traditional FMCG companies to these new generation consumer oriented companies.
>> Okay. uh you know what we'll do is uh take a quick uh break here. There's the JSW cement uh block deal which has happened. 4.28 crore shares worth 531 cr shares have changed hands in the block deal window. Uh so that is coming. So that's about 3.14% of equity at this point in time. We whether we have a cement discussion coming up in just a bit from now. Deep thank you very much for joining us. Good speaking with you.
We'll take a break. We are coming back with of course the technical trading ideas and Rajes Ravi on cement as well uh in just a bit.
Okay, welcome back. Mitesh is with us and so is Shriant with what they'd want you to do as we start this uh uh you know new trading session Friday morning.
Gentlemen, great to have both of you here. You know uh we've traded five days and the Nifty is up a grand total of five points. Midh uh will we get more this today or uh and how to trade it?
>> Morning Krishant. uh you know actually I have been uh advocating that the markets will consolidate contract and we now have a very clearly defined range uh even if you were not uh working on charts and all just look at the price movement 23 300 250 on the downside 23 800 830 on the upside I think probably the nifty is uh uh very clearly contracting between these two levels and yet I think you know we don't have any signals of a breakout or a breakdown uh most of the volatility indicators that we track are still flat very sideways which means that there could be another few more days before some kind of a direction move happens. For the time being I will say that either avoid the index pro uh trade around the edges which is that you take a short close to about 23800 uh uh or prior quote wrongs as we get closer to about 23 350 300 >> Shant how long do we remain wedged in this trading ban are you sensing any sort of a breakout and what's the trading call?
>> Good morning Rea. Good morning everyone.
So while looking at the uh setup yes it is very clear that we are in the range and it's very difficult to say that when it will break but the way there is a contraction happening and lows are rising. We are of the view that now one thing is very clear that if we see the market is dropping below 23400 then we can expect further more weakness maybe up to 23,000. On the higher side, it is still difficult for the market to like sustain and trade higher because 23800 24,000 all are important resistance level. So in case if there is any deep then certainly we should look for taking some long bets with the stop loss at 23400. If there is any higher opening then it is better to focus more on stock instead of taking any call on index.
>> Shriant uh so what about stocks?
See like broader market is doing well as compared to large cap companies. Um most of these companies are finding to difficulties to sustain at higher level.
So from the broader market we like Hunasa which was like around 360 yesterday. The company has reported strong number we can see some gap up opening maybe 5 10% higher but even at those levels it's a buy uh with a target of 400 420. We are of the view that the stock is forming a very strong technical formation and based on that we may even see the levels of 450 which is we can say the maximum level that we can see based on its technical pattern. So even with a gap of opening it's a buy with a stop loss close to 350.
Uh the other stock on which we are bullish is Noco Vistas. Uh there also we are seeing higher top higher bottom sort of off series. Currently the stock is around 328. uh we are expecting stock to move towards 350 355 and we can keep a stop loss around 320 for the same >> mh what stocks would you go with >> I have a mix of buys and sells u on the buying side is barrage auto the stock below 10,480 for targets of around 11,000 uh Apollo hospital is also buying it's been a buy earlier as well uh now can be bought fresh with a pre-wise stop at 8250 for a target for around 8440.
A couple of sell calls on uh uh Jubilant Foods uh sell with a stop at 445 for a target of 415 and U LT Finance is a sell keep a stop at 272 Half look for targets of 256.
>> All right, gentlemen, we'll come back to you. Let's talk about the big deal in the cement space. So, Dalmia Bharat has signed an agreement to acquire part cement assets from J Prakash Associates from the Adani group. The deal is valued at 2,850 cr which were acquired by the Adani group uh under the insolvency and bankruptcy code. So how does this change the competitive dynamics for the cement industry? What it means for Dalmia Bharat? Rajesh Ravi institutional research analyst at HDFC Securities is now joining in. Rajes morning thank you for joining in. So strategically for Dalmia Bharat this is a positive. It fills uh the white space of central India because they've predominantly been heavy in South and East Asia. What's your assessment for Dalmia Bharat in terms of valuation? What it brings to the table?
>> Hi, good morning. Uh yes, uh this was a much uh you know Dalmia needed this asset and they were on the verge of closing the deal earlier when the asset the whole of the JP assets went through the NCT and then uh there was a cloud of uncertaintity whether Dalmia would get these assets. Finally they are able to negotiate the same and get it from Adani Enterprises. So it is indeed a positive from Dalmia perspective uh in terms of their footprint expansions and uh their aspiration to become a pan India player given that these assets were already operational precoid and even during the uh you know preceding past two years there were some amount of tolling arrangement which Dalmia was doing. So they have a fair amount of distribution both trade and non-trade in the market and hence they can ramp up uh ramp up these assets fairly fast. Yeah. So from that perspective it is uh sentimentally positive for Dalmia.
>> Sentimentally positive and your view on valuation $67 per ton all in and Dalia Bharat also has this aspiration to get to 75 million tons by FI28. What is the road map to get the balance? Would you buy a Dalmia bharat based on this development?
>> Yeah. So uh uh so from a Dalmia perspective uh our understanding is the you know factoring in refurbishment and the WHR capex to bring this asset at a uh you know decent margin profile would work out to be around $775 per ton which is itself is a decent uh you know uh in terms of acquisition cost and uh in terms of u you know the central market is obviously a decent market where uh players Dalmia can deliver good numbers.
Overall what we understand is that there will be a you know intensification of the regional competition because of these assets getting operational from Q2 or maybe Q3 itself. So there is some amount of competition which will further build up in the central market and weigh down margins for all the players in the region.
>> Okay, got that. What's the uh Adani angle? Why are they selling part of the cement assets? They could have used it to bulk up their own capacity for Abuja.
>> Yeah, this is a key question because we were almost uh you know we had taken it for granted that ultimately it will land into Abuja's portfolio because Ambuja has a lower share of their capacities in the central market and we were expecting that this will beef up Ambuja's portfolio in the central market.
However, we believe that given that Mr. Karan Nadani also recently in the call cautioned that given that the cost bloat up which they have seen in the past two quarters they would look to tighten their cost metrics uh immediately rather than chasing behind capacity first and second we would also believe that uh you know at the acquisition at the promoter level for Abuja given that large amount of borrowing is already there on books they would not want to further uh you know add pressure in terms of adding capacities they can do brownfield later on and their current capacities are good enough to deliver volume growth. So from that perspective uh Adani enterprises would have let go of these assets and uh generate better liquidity from Dalmia which you had asked earlier from valuation what we believe that this could largely be valuation target neutral EV neutral from uh given that the uh initial uh IITA increase uh additional IITA which will come through the uh target valuation would get knocked out because of similar increase in uh net debt because of the acquisition for us.
>> So for Adani in the near term, it's prudent, financially prudent. You don't want to increase your uh you know, stress the balance sheet at a time when operational costs are already ballooning. Uh but over the longer term, I mean, it's always a tugof-war between near-term and longer term. So do you think they did the right thing, Adani?
So from Adani uh given that they have very strong Adani group have very strong project execution skill set and the current capacities of ACC and Abuja have lot of brownfield opportunities across markets. We believe there are uh even if theani group has let go of these assets would not be significantly negative for them. They already they have one of the assets which is already under their fold the uh you know JP super the the JP super assets in up Clinker which was under arbitration between Ultra Tech and Dalmia. So they may look to develop that at some later point in time and in the near term they should focus more on sweating up the existing assets with better margin profile.
>> Right. Rajesh you know just before we let you go beyond this deal as well over the last uh you know month or so we've gotten uh commentary from either Shri Cement or even the Adanis they're focusing a lot more on profitability rather than capacity expansion and uh in light of the fact that raw material costs input costs and freight costs etc have increased do you believe that there is more headroom for cement companies to now go ahead and take price hikes and how do you view the stocks now >> I that should be the condition given the amount of uh consolidation which has happened in the past 3 years. We were factoring in that uh when uh the acquired assets acquired some decent level of utilization companies would focus more on uh better pricing and that has not played out materially so far and given now that the industry is looking at almost 300 rupees per ton of cost inflation. I uh take this between Q1 and Q2 there has to be a uh significant uh realization uptick. We have seen significant price increase happening across other building materials including uh you know consumer durables building material space and even in steel prices. However, cement is the only uh building material product which hasn't seen any uh any uh relevant price increase to put it in that perspective. So yes uh given that even logistics cost will go up by 20 to 25 rupees per ton. This is an incremental pressure. The industry need to look through and do uh more uh you know absorb more uh cement price high rather than just chasing volumes.
>> All right uh Rajes we leave it there.
Thank you very much for joining us.
There's 4 minutes to go for market opening and uh we will see what happens to Dalmia and we'll look at of course Abuja as well as uh you know trade starts but PTM block deal has also gone through 86 lakh shares about 1.3% equity changed hands cy partners is the likely seller I mean ant has sold earlier se is selling now 1160 or so is where this is settling at uh at the end of the pre-open uh session so that is I mean two large deals right I mean one is of course JSW and the other one is PTM him uh coming through today. We've got Mites back with us with 910 calls. Message, what do you have?
>> I'll go with the buy on Abola Hospitals and u look for a target of around 844 there.
>> Okay, Apollo did well yesterday. Uh and we had the management of course with us yesterday as well. Warun beverages is what we want to focus on and there is some important updates here uh with regards to their tie up with PepsiCo what the change agreement allows them to do etc. Mangalab take it away.
>> Well, it's one the fact that the agreement with PepsiCo has been extended. So that's a positive. The second part is there is an optionality out here. So they've informed the exchanges that the agreement with PepsiCo in India has been revised. Two major points. One exclusive arrangement bottling arrangement has been extended from April 2039 to April 2049. So up until April 2049, there is clarity that these guys will be the ex exclusive bottlers for Pepsi in India. The second point that's more important where they've said that the requirement to carry out no other business than to be the SPV for PepsiCo has been deleted which means that they can go ahead and you know explore other consumer categories rather than just being a person who's bottling for PepsiCo as well. So that optionality is something that you know the street likes. In fact Jeff has come out with a note saying that revised agreement should provide the company with flexibility to explore other consumer categories. There have been no details on the plan for their India business yet especially given the light uh given the fact that they've entered the beer category in South Africa but they do view this move positively as it opens up that optionality. So long drawn view for Pepsico up until April 2049 and then you have this other optionality which comes in as well. So netn net it's a positive.
The fact that we are also amidst a big heat wave right now should uh bode well for the stock after it's corrected from the peak.
>> With no help from you though.
>> No help from me. No actually yes I I do consume a lot of their zero sugar products and which account for actually nearly 30 to 40% of their revenue which is uh also gross margin accreative. Not only is sugar bad for your health but it's uh bad for the company's gross margins as well because sugar is expensive.
>> Live a little. Yeah.
>> I do. I do.
>> Okay. Okay. Well, I think uh we've got the first rates come up and VUN of course is up about two two and a half odd% at the end of the pre-open session.
Uh but u we'll look at that. We'll of course the cement space and focus and you know the uh you know so many management so many companies which reported numbers. Nika let's just put that up quickly if you have like a second or two. Uh put up Hunasa where that is at the end of the pre-open session how they likely to start 7% on Hunasa 3% on Nika. uh you know PTM is have higher that blocks gone through and of course JSW seal is the other one uh and and so many others we spoke with the management earlier uh that should come up as well I see Yash told us his numbers are strong max is down about 2% or farmer I think the calls on 1.7% lower on Ouro fararma 1520 um and u and and and that's more stuff so we'll get to these individual names but you get a broad sort of you know sense of where they start uh we look at indices these first as we always do before we go uh down to uh individual names. So 25 23,700 on the nifty it's up about 0.16%. The Nifty Bank is up about a third of a percent. The small cap index is up 0.7.
The midcap index will come up as well and uh we've got about 140 points about a quarter% gain on the midcap index.
1230 stocks are higher 400 stocks are lower. It's about 3 is to1 in favor of advances. So 23 680 uh on the Nifty is what you have. So it's flattish but slightly higher. Heat map will give you a sense of how the 50 stocks are opening. Trend is up the most. Tata Motor Tata Motors passenger vehicle is up next. Grassim Maruti are some of the others and Max Health is starting lower.
On the other end, ITC and Infosys are some of the other names. Rema >> well Max is clearly the problem pocket problem stock in the large cap space.
Max has opened with a cut of about 5% and here their share of oncology has declined sharply on a quarter-onquarter basis due to discontinuation of select chemo drugs for institutional patients.
So that's weighing on the company's performance. X of that the company's gross revenues X of oncology was up 15% but consolidated numbers are a miss.
stock is under pressure along with that ITC where again uh the change in taxation weighing on cigarette volumes and the street is still unclear on the trajectory of the cigarette volumes at least for the near term. LTM is reacting negatively to the acquisition. They've gone ahead and announced an acquisition of RANSTAD in Europe. They will be paying $160 million but maybe it's to do with the acquisition or the overall IT space because generally the Nifty IT is in the red and infosces whipro 2 have opened with cuts of about a quarter of a percent. Titan, LNT, Sipla, Hindalco.
These are some of the other names in the red. On the way up, Mari Suzuki is being rewarded for its announcement of price hikes of up to 30,000 rupees uh per vehicle. So that's the top gainer. Tatam Motors passenger vehicles higher. Uh insurance companies SBI life up and about NTPC, Aisha Motors, Adani Group stocks. Uh in the banking names, IC Bank and HDFC Bank too have opened up in the grain. But on the whole very quiet and still very much consolidating in that band >> consolidating in the front line end but you know a lot of individual stocks doing a thing of their own. We have Honasa which is the stock of the morning up nearly 10% post its uh best ever quarterly performance that has come in.
We work India was locked in upper circuit yesterday post numbers continues to do well up 7% straight off the bat this morning as well the traex uh exigo we just spoke with the management it was a soft quarter but maybe the street is looking ahead and believing that maybe you know their agentic AI business along with the fact that demand for summer travel is fairly strong and the stock which has corrected a fair bit as well uh they've given them a long rope RCF the AITA was up 80% that stock too up around 5% in trade LIC is the other one which is up 4%. Yash told us it was a good set of numbers. Paige industries is the other one. Uh you know reported numbers ended about a percent higher. I think the street likes the management commentary that came by in the conference call that reflects in the stock price which is higher by about 4% after having seen a big outperformance in the recent past for that counter as well. In the FNO space we have Vun Beverages which has opened about two 2 and a half% higher on that revised agreement with PepsiCo. FSN ecom which is Nika is also up 3% on reporting a stellar performance and Dalmiah Bharat on account of the acquisition we just spoke about that up around 3% as well.
So a bunch of stocks doing extremely well. The only one that stands down however is Oruroindo farama did tell us that those numbers were largely in line with expectations if not marginally better but the street seems to have uh you know not been as uh uh as charitable to the stock. which is down about 3 3 and a half% and then we have a big uh cut on names like EIL and quick heel both of them down 6 to 8%. H you know uh there's a there's a lot happening right in terms of individual names and uh look at MTAR tech it's again come up with huge volumes uh for this point in the day uh it was like a super rocket stock I mean it is still uh the I guess the best performing stock on the NSE 500 universe it got it gave you a quick 10% draw down 10% pullback it it fell a,000 bucks uh and uh he's just come up very very quickly or you know right back to an all-time high. So, it's a new all-time high for MR Techch after that 10% draw down that we saw recently.
Uh, Paige Industries, I think Mangala mentioned that is up four 5%. Sanser is another one, right? It's gone up like a rocket. It's up 75% in 26 so far, 2026 so far. Closed last year was 970. It's at about 2,900 now. Uh, so and and you know the results came through uh a few days back. two days back it was at 25 just under 2500. So that is another one huge mover uh in that sense. Adani enter Adani energy solutions is up 3% this morning out of the out of that group it's doing the best uh right now. Vwork I think we mentioned it is up 8%. So that's a large one. VAT VBA is up 2 and a half%. We have the management joining us in a bit from now. Uh and and so it goes. So you know there's uh there's enough and more activity action. LIC of course is up 4% as well. Uh you'll hear from the LIC management a little later on during the day uh as well. Max of course is now down 4 and a.5%. PTM is also down about 3%. Uh Oro and Prestige and Wellspun Cop. Wellspin Cop has been a big very strong mover. Uh this year it's up 50% this today. I mean that includes today's 5% cut after numbers but it's still up 50 555% for the year so far. LG India not really has not really performs is down 2% after numbers as well. Rate gain is down three. Data matics is down 5 and a half. Uh so many moves coming through.
Rana Gupta is with us portfolio senior portfolio manager at an India equity specialist at Manu Life Investment Management. Rana good to have you with us here. Thanks for joining us.
Uh so uh you know what should we start with? It's earning season I think is pretty much coming to an end. We will get a flurry of numbers as we wrap this up. But how consequential has this earning season been because uh you know we are in the midst of uh this this higher energy impact and that'll only show through in the first quarter numbers and maybe in the second quarter as well. So it's all kind of the waters have been muddied a fair bit in that sense. How how how does one make that assessment? Uh Rana, >> hi uh good morning. Uh so the results are not quite reflective of the macro environment that we are seeing because in India the consumer so far has been largely insulated from the oil price rise and other price rises. But that said this result is a good indication that last calendar year the income tax cut the GST card the red card that has happened that is that has taken impact and the domestic economy is doing well with inflation so far under reasonable level which means the economy is quite resilient and that's why we expect that even if the the you know the policy makers decide to increase the oil prices and I think they we think they should we think that looking at the resilience and looking at the slack in the inflation there will be some pain of course but I think there is room to absorb that kind of price rises >> uh hi um morning and thank you very much uh for joining in so what's the call now that you're taking on the Indian markets it's been a painfully long period of consolidation we haven't done too much uh are you bullish or are you turning a bit cautious now >> so I think I know the there are so many macro variables out here we have to first until obtained my base case and then we can support Indian markets. The base case remains that the state of open somewhere in mid June and even then the crude price we do not think comes back to where it was pre-war. So therefore some of the price hikes are necessary because right now because of crude prices India is having to pay additional about 60 $70 billion for crude and fertilizer. Right now government the public companies and to some extent corporates are bearing this that situation cannot sustain this has to be passed on and that is what we think will happen. So that is the best case that said I think now we see you will move to the market in the market we see quite a bit of opportunities actually on on a sectoral basis. Firstly, the globally linked sectors like power, equipment and metal. They should continue to do well because of the global capex that we are seeing in artificial intelligence, infrastructure and defense. Uh coming to country specific, we quite like the the capital good sector and within that we like defense.
uh outside no outside that in the broader industrial space we like the infrastructure sector because we think in India some of the infrastructure plays the balance sheet is quite solid and cash flow is very visible so we like that and secondly you know moving on from there we also like in the consumer space the consumer retail or platform companies you were yourself highlighting some of the results that has come through that consumer retail and platform companies they continue to gain share in the in the in the Indian market. So that is one space whether it is jewelry, whether it is grocery, whether it is eyewear or beauty products. I think some of these companies continue to share and this is one space we have liked for the long term. Lastly, we see some revival in real estate and building materials as well because we are quite optimistic on the data center kind of infrastructure uh and also some of the revival in commercial offices. For once uh we do not think that AI will cause significant job losses in India. Of course, Indian IT companies can lose share but we think the GCCs are there to pick it up. So we are we are quite constructive on that real estate part and commercial part as as well.
>> Right. Uh so there's a comprehensive list of opportunities that you see in India. What about the travel and tourism portfolio? because you know it was expected to be a big growth driver for the country but in the very near term it's facing a fair amount of headwinds inflationary headwinds could lead to some sort of discretionary spending being pulled back. Do you think that would weigh in on some of the hotel stocks some of the travel and tourism stocks?
Yes sure I think it's already weighing in and I think in travel and tourism currently I think there will be some pressure for few more quarters given we are also expecting or advocating for an oil price rise which will lead to high transportation cost. So I think but that said if you if one were to take a step back and take a you know view for 1 to 3 years we do think the premium hotel stocks are kind of pricing this in and cyclally I think there is a if you look to look through the near-term pain I think there could be a good opportunity we would be a bit cautious on the airlines still because uh you know airlines has significant operating leverage while crude might fall they can rally but I think we will be a little cautious on the other hand coming to the the the travel related portals and technology said I think this is where if the travel portal is just an aggregator this is where I think the threat from uh aentic AI is the most so again I cannot say in a blanket view but we have to understand the company's aentic focus and how are they planning to beat that because this is one area which is likely disrupted by jai >> uh we've seen some strong numbers from these consumer platforms like a Nika or Honasa consumer today uh stocks are racing away on the back of their numbers. Are you bullish on this particular side of the platform companies new age companies?
>> Yes, we the digital digital companies for a long time and we don't some of the older companies in the individual also because we treat them as as a platform. Outside that we also like you know grocery retailing that is one platform we like we like the beauty and personal care platforms also we like eyeear platforms. So you will not all of this is purely tech some of this is physical some of them are digital some of them some of them are physical the point being that because of the superior proposition they are gaining market share and that's what we like.
>> Yeah. Uh no point taken. By the way, the market's making a bit of a move now. So 95 points, 23,746 is where the uh index is now trading at.
Uh and it's 15,600 stocks higher and about a,000 stocks which are lower at this point. You know, consumer durables, Rana, any any thoughts? Uh diversified names like LG India, uh do you have a view?
the consumer level will still have somewhat of a difficult time because of the input price. So in this case also earning incurs are yet to come but again just like I commented on uh travel if someone were to take a longerterm view we think a diversified white good company can be a good pick for the longer term if one can avoid next one or two quarters I will be cautious of consumerable companies which are narrowly focused on one or two verticles because uh that is where the input cost will be the most and most impacted by competition. So uh large diversified premium white goods play you would optimistic but there will be challenges for the next three quarters >> about hospital names uh do you have a do you have a view?
Sure. I think you know you can also think of it as a platform business right because these are or even this is a cross-section from between platform and infrastructure business. So see what they do is not only they're gaining market share but once the digital or the physical or the physical platform is built out there is there is little fixed cost to service their additional customers. So when they build they go through a pain or let's say stagnant earnings and when the building is complete the earning inflection comes. A lot of these platform companies whether it's retail whether it's physical or digital we have discussed today we believe that in FI28 and FI29 they're poised for significant earning inflection today I know it's FI29 is a slightly longerterm looking but you know in 6 months we will start talking about that and I think then we will realize the earning power and the cash flows that will come from these kind of companies and yes that includes hospitals >> you know just put up Canes, if you will, uh that's Canes Technologies, uh had a very sharp selloff. Uh I mean, uh and and uh you know, from 45,00 we uh went to about uh just under 3,000. Uh and it's it's it's coming back a little bit, just a little bit. Two from the lows, it's pulled back, right? Uh so 295 was a low. It's about 3,200. Uh trying to move higher. So 2 and a/4%. Dixon is up today as well about two two and a half odd percent at this point in time. Any views here Rana?
EMS is one sector where we have been bullish and although the stock prices have not really responded in in this particular sector. The EMS sector you know while the long term remains uh very good but the MS sector we have to understand you know the they are going through some uh transient but significant challenges. If you think of all these companies, the input prices are all linked to copper, memory and you know all those gold and silver which are seeing significant price rises. So this will impact their margins. This will impact and if not margins will impact the volume and these companies operate on a fairly low uh operating margin number. So therefore earning downgrade can be can be quite significant. So this is where I think earning downgrades can continue to happen for the rest of the year. The long-term picture remains uh the India's electronics export story remains good. In that case you know we have always said that if one were to back any company here back the ones which has strong cash flows and uh roe the the the what has played out in this sector is what we shared with one of the earlier discussion with you in this sector because the margins already low.
If someone is buying a company which is growing strongly with low working capital that can get into a lot of trouble because if the offering margin slips working capital slips your cash flow situation deteriorates extremely quickly. So that is something one needs to guard against in in this EMS in the EMS sector. But the other companies with stronger balance sheet with good cash flow roe should continue to do well.
again they I think other some of the other sectors have cautioned for about two quarters in this case I think it can continue for three to four quarters >> um what about uh you know the financial space I have to ask you because most portfolio managers most investors etc they because of its weightage on the index and because of the long outsized opportunity in India are fairly sanguin on this space but in the very near term there are a lot of headwinds out here as well right with regards to the cost of funds with regards to credit offtake perhaps because of higher inflation maybe at some point you get some of the balance sheet troubles as well is there a possibility where are you on the financial space and you know your thoughts on public sector private sector NBFC's the other ways to play it >> sure I think that's a that's a you know of course you're right this is a very last one view on the sector now uh per se I think the Indian financials the results were also quite code and we are happy to see that most of this most of these financials they have made preemptive provisions for uh the you know for any possible West Asia conflict so that's a good part I do not think situation will deteriorate to the extent and you have to remember my best case that I outlined earlier we do not think situation will deteriorate to the extent that their balance sheet will impact it because all of them have very pristine balance sheet they have provision cover and uh therefore they can withstand that there is residence to withstand some bit of impact. Uh so therefore we do not think the balance she will get impacted where it will get impacted is in growth and margins. Uh there we think markets current estimates are slightly on the optimistic side and also uh if uh the deposit the growth cannot cannot become we think credit growth has to kind of come off a bit andor people will have to fight for deposit raising the rates. So the risk is on the growth and the margins not so much on the balance sheet. Uh the among the private banks we like the ones or even the public sector banks. We like the banks which have lot of liquidity on the balance sheet and have room to lend. So for example the banks which have lower LDR and high LCR.
So those are the banks we like uh where they can support continue to support growth in moving to NBFCs. NVFC's sector is also something that the larger NVFC we are comfortable with because many of which many of them have raised capital and having raised capital they can withstand a rising rate or even a somewhat asset call it scenario within the enter financial space the part we like like the most is still the financial services financial services space is I think has a long long runway and there is lot to like about it within that whe whether is exchanges or insuranceances. Those are the things uh that we like.
>> Uh thanks very much uh for that. Uh and Rana, it's a good chat, detailed chat uh and we look forward to our next one.
Thank you for joining us here on NBC TV18. You know uh we put some data out yesterday that after the rules changed from the 1st of April, there has been a rush of buybacks.
uh and u you know the nimsh compiled this data and we put this out on editor's playbook yesterday and the numbers are there I mean of course I mean 24,000 crores but bulk of it from vipro and baj auto but there are uh you know lots of other smaller sized you know buybacks which have been announced since sign for example orindo is there and so on so forth so uh this is this is I mean the initiative the change in rule has been taken up by promoters and companies in a significant way and it's just been u not very long I mean a month and a half or so bhaves sha is with us he's managing director and head of investment banking at equirious capital we also have danasa partner evi pathinan gentlemen great to have both of you here thanks very much for joining us prashan this side uh so bhavish if I can start with you is this yeah as I said you know baj and whipro of course accounting for bulk of it. Uh but lots of I mean the list is long transaction transaction size etc is small. Uh what are you seeing out there in terms of companies and interest uh and and just intention to do this uh buybacks after the change in rules.
>> Hey Prashant uh good morning uh good to be here uh thanks for having me. uh you know the uh if you look at if you step back and look at uh a the capital market environment right now of course you know the there is a volatility out in the market uh at the same time a lot of these companies believe that they have excess cash uh which can be used better from a capital allocation perspective by giving it back to the investors uh that's one and the second one of the biggest figures has been one of the recent changes by sebi in terms of making buyback more palpable from a taxation perspective and as well as you know uh more market friendly. So I think you know companies can buy back from the market. I think you know these sends out very strong signals to the investors that you know company believe in their growth story going forward and you know this can be very cash EPS creative strategy. Uh clearly I think some of these companies want to make sure that the investor interest is alive. uh in this counters and and and you know this buyback has been indisp what are you seeing in terms of interest in pipeline from here?
>> Thanks Rashant. So uh you know I conquer you know there have been three major changes which have happened which has led to this. Uh we talked about the tax reset uh which is now it's more clearer it's more fair more predictable for stakeholders. Uh there's a cash surplus that is available. uh but there is another angle that we should think about and that is the 12% search charge uh which comes on promoted capital gains from these buybacks and you know that could somehow change the maths for some founder heavy companies. So you know I wouldn't be surprised if some of them pivot back to dividends instead of using uh uh buybacks or maybe go for uh using cash for in organic plays instead. uh but certainly as we look at it uh there have been 25,000 cr worth of buybacks uh and it's growing.
>> So what is just explain that searchcharge point Danch if you if you will.
>> Yeah. So it's basically coming in on the promoter uh capital gains uh from the buyback. Uh so if if the promoter is selling in uh there is a search charge which the promoter has to pay.
>> I see. So you're saying that may disincentivize some of the founder heavy companies to do it and maybe use cash elsewhere.
>> That's correct.
>> Right. Baves, any thoughts on this particular point?
>> I think yeah, I think you know, you know, essentially what Sebi wanted to make sure is that you know the new rules are not misaligned from a you know from a promoter and a shareholder standpoint.
And you know we had seen instances in the past where buyback was used by the promoters to kind of you know uh you know uh make uh gains for themselves and rather than shuttle. So I think what sebi has done is disincentivize the promoters by participating in the buyback banks including the search charge. Um you know effectively what it means is you know there's a clean way of getting the you know buying back from the shareholders into the company. uh the promoters are not participating in this uh in this buyback and and that kind of from a seby's perspective would lead to a little more uh transparent and fair uh process of you know you know creating this buybacks.
>> Yeah. Yeah. So so where is uh is there a is there a sector where we likely to see more of this abhavish I mean just drill it down.
>> Yeah.
>> Absolutely. Prashant I think you know we will see more of these in companies which are obviously very cashthrowing.
um you know uh not very heavy on capeex, not very heavy on maybe acquisitions of course you know you could see acquisitions across but you know effectively sectors like uh you know technology for sure you know so I think wherever they don't have specific needs of uh you know capeex coming up uh uh you know some of the pharma companies you know wherever there's a cash we'll definitely not see banks doing this we'll definitely not see infrastructure companies doing it for sure because they will need cash for their for blowing their businesses but it will always be cash growing businesses and industries where we will see this action >> is there a is there like a you know how much is enough as a as a strong signal is there a science science to this >> very great question prashant I think my personal view is I think it's more of a signal that really matters it it most it's more of a confidence that the the the company is exuding to the to the investors at large. Uh uh but at the same time I think the company has to also be cognizant of the fact that what are the kind of signals it is sending out to the investors. A of course the price is down and we are there to buy at and support this prices at we think this is a great EPS secretive price but the other is you know the signal which the in the company's giving out to the uh investor word at large is that I'm not acquiring there's not major capeex you know you know the growth plans are going to be whatever they are they are organic so I think you know uh the companies need to be very calibrated in terms of uh what is the signaling and what is the messaging uh you know uh the inves ministers are able to grasp by way of this method. So, uh you know >> Yeah.
>> No bes I I get I get that. I'm just saying that how much is how much needs to be done so that the signal is strong enough and it's not a weak signal.
>> No, I definitely I think you know uh you can't have smoke without fire. I think you you need to that you I think you know very difficult there's there's no specific science to this >> uh and I think it all depends upon the market conditions as well but you know uh you know something if if you if the companies always announce and do nothing you know the next time around you know investors won't take it seriously but if something is done I don't know there's 10% 20% 25% 50% uh very difficult to put a finger on a number but I think the actions need to follow the talks for sure.
>> Yeah. No, that most certainly and I mean you know year after year after year if you look at uh markets like US etc. There is of course earnings growth. Now earnings growth because in the last few years is uh very strong but otherwise when during periods of low earnings growth uh you know buybacks have resulted in uh you know large uh has have accounted for large amount of growth in US uh you know hundreds of billions of dollars every year uh in the US over the last I mean I think 10 years more. So of course I mean you know the size here is much smaller but we are starting to see some of it. We'll track this space. Thanks very much Babes for us on short notice. Dian thank you very much for being here on CNBC TV8 as well.
We'll take a break. We're back. The management of VAT joins us on their quarterly performance. Stay tuned.
Welcome back. You're watching us here on corporate radar. As we speak, the market is uh you know, it's it's recovering, but at high levels, like we pointed out earlier, it's seeing some sort of resistance. Uh the good part, however, is that the Nifty is above the 50-day moving average. 23 750 is where we are on the frontline index. is being led by the nifty bank which is higher by about 500 points but a little over 54,000 we have resistance coming it out there as well so let's see how that pans out advanced decline split right down the middle VAT wabag that's the management on our show right now reported a good set especially given the likely disruptions from west Asia the revenues jumped 22% margins have fallen Rajiv Mittal who's the chairman and managing director at VAT joins in now thanks a lot Mr. Al for joining in. It's a good performance. The question however is uh what goes on from here on on three parameters. One order wins because of the disruption in West Asia etc. What's the kind of order inflow outlook that you have? The second part is on execution because we've been speaking to a lot of people and they say that labor availability execution remains a bit of a challenge and then the third part is on raw materials. So cost of execution has increased on all these parameters.
what's your guidance? What's the outlook? What's the setup like?
>> Thank you, Mlam and thank you for having us on your show. I think uh we are still very bullish. I've said this before that today we are a multinational company with presence is more than 25 countries. So we are not dependent on one geography.
Our risks are spread out. And even when you're talking about West Asia, I think uh all our execution of the projects are very much intact and we have been performing well. All our sites are not disrupted. We have adequate workforce to give the desired output and you can see from the numbers we have exceeded our expectation. So there is no disruption per se in the execution side. On the order intake side, I think we are at all-time high with 17,200 cr plus order backlog. So we are not short of orders.
Yes, definitely we have seen some delay decisions over the last 3 months but I think it's fine. We are full with execution. It's a matter of time and water is something where the decisions cannot be delayed beyond a point both in the drinking water side or in the waste water side because it affects directly the people. So we are very much uh intact and we have a very bullish order outlook. And last thing about your raw material prices, most of the orders which are under execution, we have already blocked our uh cost by placing orders both on their construction and on the supply. So we don't see much effect on the present execution and the new orders. Obviously when we take there will be a clause to negotiate if there is a continued to be price increase. So there also we are not very concerned.
>> So can you put numbers to the qualitative commentary that you've made?
What's the kind of order inflow guidance that you have for this year? Revenue guidance and margin guidance.
>> I think uh Manglam we have given this three years back. We don't give year to year or quarteron quarter guidance. We have given a 3 to five year guidance which is we are very much on it. You can see even this year revenue guidance are very much what we had given we had given a 15 to 20% and we have already achieved more than 20%. And with the kind of order backlog we have I'm sure we can do much better than 20% when we will give our next guidance in next year probably you will see that this CAGGR number of 20% will further go up and same thing on order you have seen in this crisis the water has come into discussion they have been all talking about destroying each other's water assets so I'm sure each country is going to build adequate reserve capacities of this water. So we see going forward the governments are going to come up with a policy to have a spare or buffer capacities which will also help us to build new plants >> and even the margin guidance of 13 to 15% stays despite the inflationary impulse going up >> in in fact remma yes it does and you have seen even this year we are both on standalone we are 14% plus and uh on console we are 13% plus so yes this margin guidance will stay and can improve.
>> U right Mr. ML, good morning. Yeah, water has been in the headlines. Water desalination plans and uh threats to destroy it and whatnot, right? I mean, absolutely crazy stuff. Uh just one thing in the Middle East, what is the value of projects under execution on some of the on the plants? I mean total value in the in the region Middle East >> uh it should be close to about 5,000 cr plus. Don't hold me for this number.
>> No, we won't.
>> I'm guessing it will be of that order of magnitude.
>> Okay. Uh and and work on all this has has continued through this over the last two months.
>> Yes. Yes. Absolutely. And in fact our people are very much there. They're all safe. We have housed them closer to the sides. We have thousands of labors working. We have not seen any disruption. Uh we just have to be very careful because the countries are very well organized. If there are any alerts, we just put them under safe uh shelter otherwise the work is going on as usual.
M >> and uh that point that you mentioned which is uh buffer building buffer and spare capacity. Have you seen any actual visibility people picking up the phone and talking to you that this may or have you seen this come through the pipeline with regards to you know just projects being conceptualized or maybe just the idea being floated?
>> Very much Prashant and uh we have seen it and people are started talking about it. They have started hiring some advisories who can plan for this reserve capacities to be built. So like they used to build for oil. I think water is going to be the next oil valuable resource which is going to be taken care by building spare buffer capacities >> 100%. It's only matter of time.
>> Right.
>> Okay. Uh sir uh there were two likely large orders from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. CNBC had reported it. Uh have you and you had confirmed participation in them. Can you give an update on the status? Is it a part of your order book right now that 17,200 cr or a part of L1 or when do you expect it to convert?
>> Remma, first thing we don't take uh orders in our order book if we are a preferred bidder.
>> I think you're talking about two orders.
One is in which is $384 million. This is not an order book. We are a preferred bidder. Other one is Hada which is a sewage treatment plant. Another about 200 million plus. Both are in our preferred status not in order. And this should happen very soon. It's just got delayed as I said before maybe by a quarter. We definitely see this in second quarter or end of this quarter.
We'll see this into our order book.
>> All right. That's uh good enough for you to you know confirm what our colleague Vive was picking up earlier. You will perhaps uh get the order and uh report it to the exchanges by the second quarter. For now you are the preferred bidder. Thank you so much for joining in Mr. Mittal and you know giving us the update. As you were speaking we did have some updates coming on MTAR Techch as well. They've bagged orders worth nearly 500 cr rupes from an international entity. The stock has been a buzz for a while right now. Maybe you know a part of this was the street was sussing out and now that we have uh you know the reason coming by the stock continues to hold up high by about 4 and a half% 500 cr order coming in >> 25,000 crores on market cap now uh and it's the best performing stock uh in the market by >> Stellite tech perhaps has been a much much smaller company but this is a stock which has done well even on days where there is news no news and on days where there is uh some news but let's move on and talk about Healthcare global next management on the show. The company has seen an operational improvement in Q4. Revenues are up 11%. The average revenue per patient has gone up by 3% and now stands at more than 84,000. Uh Manish Matu, executive director, CEO at the company Healthcare Global Enterprises is now joining in. Thank you very much Manish for joining in. Remma here. Q4 revenue growth at 11 a half% is slightly lower than the annual guidance for the full year. You've met it but particularly in Q4 it's been moderated.
You've spoken about the low margin business exit impact of Middle East, the medical tourism etc. So I get over the medium-term you will get back to 15%.
But just as this conflict continues to linger on, do you expect maybe in the first half of FI27 revenue growth will trend below that 15% mark or have you seen an improvement in April and May?
>> Um hi, thanks Reema. Good morning. Uh I think in Q1 there may be some impact but I think by Q2 we'll get over it. So I think we should come back to u you know our guidance of 15% uh by end of by end of Q2. Uh that's very and it's not just the Middle East conflict that's impacted the revenues. It's also the fact that we have intentionally decided to pair down the low margin business in some markets.
Uh and that's showing up in our increased profitability and margin expansion.
>> So what's uh so for the full year it's a 15% revenue guidance holds right.
>> That's right. That's right.
>> What about our margins? because you have exited that low margin business which is diluted but on the other hand you're also expanding or opening up in north Bangalore which will take some time to break even so I suspect this year it could be a drag on your margins uh what's the margin guidance for FI27 and when do you get to that aspiration of 23 24%.
So we've stated uh rema that in the medium-term we are looking at a 22 23% margin uh and that going up to about 25% too uh and uh we we I think we are on track to hit that uh that number uh because the measures that we've taken on margin expansion are actually showing us good results you know this quarter alone margin expanded by 100 bits almost 100 bits um so I think for this year also we baked in the fact that there will be some iota dilution coming in from the new facility but our margin for a 20% plus growth stays uh and we are on track to get there.
>> Uh got that uh let's just uh you know uh good morning and good to speak to you Manish. Uh so where will all this expansion uh come from? from I mean you know asking a hospital company where will you how will you increase margins and keep increasing margins usually uh you know it's it's a we're all consumers of healthare services uh so we don't want to pay more but uh you got a business to run where will this expansion come from Manish uh and and you know since the the P guys came in will you uh has everything been done to kind of has has the revamp or whatever you want to call it scaling back unprofitable divisions and uh reducing the sprawl I mean all that is done and now you're just executing or there is more action left >> no yes of course see it's a journey it's a journey and as I've said margin expansion of 100 bips every year is what we are targeting and there are several levers um you know that we are going after pair mix is one such uh lever and we've seen great success around it um price increase in several markets is on the anvil and that should also help us increase the margins Um there is investment happening in clinical research in new technology uh in clinical onboarding um and of course upgrades in our infrastructure increase in um patient outcomes. So all that is going to add up to increased margins in several markets. Other thing you have to realize is that many of our centers are maturing clinical clinician productivity is increasing. You know the operating leverage is something that we are seeing in most of our centers coming in. that all those put together will definitely help us increase the margins. At the same time we continue to invest in newer formats like daycare centers newer technologies like MRIC in the in the new hospital that we recently launched uh in genomics proteomics so that the we are known for >> the in terms of I mean the flagship hospital in Bangalore right how much is that as a percentage of revenues >> so by end of this year it'll be about 3% of our overall revenues so the impact on margins and revenues is not going to be significant but next year onwards I think there's going to be significant scale up.
>> You've also agreed to exit the non-core fertility business Milan fertility brand. Uh you get about 37 crore on account of that that when you couple with the rights issue that you did uh what is the capital deployment plan and what was the final trigger to sell the fertility business? Why now? So the trig the trigger really was that it was it was non-core to us um and it had been uh running as a scaledown version and we were not able to um expand and meaningfully impact that space and you know as has been stated our main core will be to invest in oncology going forward. So it was really a non-core business which we thought was best to divest >> right >> and the deployment will happen in expansion in the Bronfield and Greenfield projects which are coming up this year. um like we plan to expand about by about 200 beds over the next 24 months and this is the capital that we will be deployed for that >> right just a final question before we let you go Manish uh you said that you do have a bunch of levers and you have a lot of metrics that you're tracking for growth out there so if you could lay some of them out for us in terms of average revenue per patient average revenue per occupied bed uh the kind of growth that you're seeing out here along with uh the international business as well Kenya saw a strong growth uh what's the average revenue per patient out there and what's the trigger here?
>> So average revenue per patient is twice as uh much in India there and uh that's done extremely well for us for the year it's grown 39% uh for the quarter it was at 71%. So um I I think Kenya is going to be a big market for us but not just Kenya I think Bombay, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Weisag and Kolkata and Ranchi I think these are five six hubs that will continue to grow quite rapidly in the next year.
>> And what are you targeting in terms of payer mix?
pair mix shift we've already seen 100 dips improvement in the last couple of quarters uh and you know we aspired to double that in this year >> sorry that question on the Bangalore hospital I think uh uh the as a percentage of total revenues it's you said uh it's uh what's the number >> so um it's about 2% by the by the year end >> uh no so the Bangalore flagship hospital revenue >> no not the flagship I I thought you were talking about the new hospital. Sorry, my >> No, no, no, no. I'm talking about the flagship hospital. That's got to be much higher.
>> So the the flagship hospital is about 16% 16 17% of our overall living.
>> Okay. And which is the next one after that?
>> Uh it'll be Ahmedabad.
>> I see. So, so just a just a quick is there is there are there any plans to you know kind of grow because you you present in lots of centers but you're known large you're known in a big way for the the the flagship but that's true for others as well I mean Apollo and Chennai etc but uh is there kind of sort of you know uh plans to grow another center to sort of make it a regional hub kind of a thing which uh >> right right >> yeah so that's actually happening in many of our centers you Whether you take borill in Bombay, you take Nagpur, Nashik, Visag, we have two hospitals in Visag or the Kolkata hospital. Many of our centers are now closing to the 10 cr per month mark or more. You know, many of the centers are now you know trending between 10 to 15 crores per month. So I feel the next wave of growth besides the two hospitals that I mentioned of course they'll continue to go quite quite healthily. The next wave of growth is going to come from these second round of hospitals which will continue to grow in double digits this year and then sub subsequent years.
>> Okay. All right, Manish. We'll leave it there. Thank you very much for joining us. Good speaking with you. Appreciate your time here on CNBC TV18. Thank you.
Well, 116 points and uh markets looking strong. We have Sudep Sha SBI securities with us with a quick check on technical.
Sudep how do you read it? We are at almost 23800 back at 23800 I should say.
>> Uh good morning Prashant. Prashant what I feel is that 23600 now will act as a very important support. last few days we are seeing nifty visiting with with this 23 550 23600 mark and not convincingly even closing below that. So uh that is coming out to be a very important support and uh on the other hand 23830 23850 is acting as a resistance since last six to seven sessions. So what I feel is looking at the volatility index looking at the the way the midcaps small caps and select large caps are shaping up eventually uh we might head towards 24,000 24,200 levels. So buying buying on dips would be my strategy from here on with 23 550 as a support on the downside >> and stocks. Uh morning remma. Uh the stocks that we like there are two of them. The first one is uh Hindalo. We have seen a strong uptrend in Hindalo since last uh several weeks and now the stock is sustaining at higher levels closer to 1100. So here the this can be bought with a stop loss at 1065 and the targets for the same would be 1145 1170. The second stock which is there on our radar is from the auto ancilliary space. It's a midcap and the stock is Gabriel India. So here also there has been a strong up move in the last several weeks post that last five to seven sessions there has been consolidation also and the stock is holding firmly above the 200 day moving average as well as the 20-day exponential moving average since last 7 to 10 sessions. So what we feel is that from here on uh around 1107 is where the stock is trading the stop loss would be 1,065 the targets would be 1150 1180 on the upside.
>> All right take that point. Uh thanks a lot for joining in and giving us your view. Sudep we'll take your leave on that note and we'll actually take a short break as well with the news that the nifty is doing extremely well right now. Over 100 points led higher by the nifty bank. On the other side Manisha Gupta joins in with a focus on the commodity space.
Welcome back. Let's talk commodities as promised. Manisha is now joining in.
Manisha, what are you looking at?
>> Well, I'm looking at the crude oil prices. It continues to be quite volatile, choppy for the whole of this week. Overnight we've seen 2% of a decline come in and for this week with that decline we're down by nearly 4% for the brand crude prices. For this year though we're still 70% on the higher side. Therein the US secretary of state Marco Robio has said that there were some encouraging signs on a possible deal with Iran. That is what the markets are dealing with. But in the meanwhile you also have statements from Iran reportedly working with Oman on framework for permanent toll system acts. This is something that the US does not like and most of the oil producers also would not want this. So this is where the market seem to be stuck at this point in time. Also in addition to that it is going to be the OPEC plus meeting on 7th of June. That is what the street will watch out for. The seven OPEC plus countries may hike output yet again for the month of July. Though without the UAE, what are those numbers looking like and the spare capacity that the OPEC holds is something that the markets will be doing maths about. And then there's an estimated 8.5 million barrels per day of global inventory decline that the street is now putting out. We have a similar statement coming in from Goldman Sachs from JP Morgan as well suggesting that the decline in global inventories is quite sharp especially when you look at the average numbers for the month of May. If the transit through hormones resumes in third quarter then the prices are expected to slide below $95 a barrel.
The street is also anticipating that by the fourth quarter there would be some normalization back into the street as well and that could look at the brand forecast at around $80 to $89 a barrel therein. But even with that, it does stay above 80 no matter what. IEA in the meanwhile also cut the 2026 demand forecast by nearly 4 lak 20,000 barrels per day therein. So the demand growth for 2026 almost cut to as as low as half a million barrels perhaps and that would continue to weigh onto the markets therein. For the prices itself when you look at the second quarter the current quarter that we are in the Brent is averaging at around $106 a barrel and that's exactly what the markets do believe that we could be looking at the crude prices going forward as well. So when you look at all of those forecasts coming in, take a look at the EIA suggesting that $96 a barrel is where they see the crude prices averaging for the rest of 2026. Now you have Goldman Sachs talking about $85 a barrel of an average. $100 is what Barclays has put out. Zanalyst talks about a range between 95 to 105 is where the crude prices perhaps will stabilize going forward in this and the next quarter as well. World Bank also has upped its average for 2026 for Brent at $86 and JP Morgan talks about 96. So that forecast or those prices of 60s and 70s that we saw before West Asia conflict perhaps are absolutely done away with most average forecast coming in anywhere between 85 to 105 on the higher side.
>> All right Manisha thank you very much for that. We'll take a break. We are back Indianomics with Lash. She speaks with Anand Narayan and Midul Sager on options before the Reserve Bank to defend the rupee. Stay tuned coming up.
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