Why Home Prices Are Dropping in Parrish and Lakewood Ranch in 2026

Añadido: 2026-05-25

[00:00:00]Price drops are happening at a rate that most sellers are not prepared for. And right here in Parrish and Liquid Ranch right now, some homes are sitting nearly three times longer than other homes just based on pricing strategy or lack thereof. And so before you decide to list your home, or maybe you're going to wait this out, you need to see the real numbers behind what's happening because this market is no longer forgiving mistakes. Hey everybody, Katherine Newman, realtor here on Florida's Gulf Coast, and this is the channel where we break down what's actually happening in the real estate markets here in Manatee and Sarasota counties. And I'm going to walk you through the exact framework I use when I meet with sellers using real MLS data so that you can make a decision based on facts, not fear, not your neighbors, not next door platform, not Facebook, not TikTok. And if you stay with me, at the end, I'm going to give you the one question that really does determine whether you should sell right now >> [music] >> or absolutely not sell. Let's zoom the lens out first because context matters. [music] So in Manatee and Sarasota county MLS data, this is for both counties combined, the median price was anywhere from 485 to 495. And that's slightly down year-over-year for Manatee county.

[00:01:34]Now it was taking for both combined counties about 50 days on average to go under contract. And we have about 4.8 months worth of supply, which means we are approaching a more balanced market.

[00:01:47]So this is no longer a throw it on the market, name your own price kind of environment. Those days are gone. And now let's look at the zip codes where we break it down in into even more real data. And we're going to start with the two most popular Lakewood Ranch zip codes, 34202 and 34211.

[00:02:10]Now, the median price for those two zip codes is about 550,000, which is 3% lower year-over-year with about 52% more active listings on the market. And of course, days on the market, well, if your home was priced well to begin with, meaning you took your real estate professional agents recommendation and [music] priced it at market value, well, those homes are only selling in about 15 days. That's not bad. Now, if you priced it above market value, value that your agent gave you, maybe slightly above in a higher range, well, then it's taking about 55 to 65 days, and that's after you've had a price drop or two. Now, if your home is just overpriced, right? It's taking 95 days. That's even after you've come to your senses and you've reduced that price. So, 95 days when you started overpriced, not a good idea. Now, the sale to list ratio is about 97% of what the list price is when it's properly priced finally, right? So, if you've already had a few price reductions just to get people in the door for showings, that's when you start receiving offers. So, price it right [music] to begin with. So, here's an example for these Lakewood Ranch areas. [music] In the past 7 days for resale homes in Lakewood Ranch, there have been 41 price reductions for residential listings. So, the median price drop was about 3.89%.

[00:03:51]That's how they're coming off the price of their home. And I want to give you an example of a home in Lakewood Ranch. Um, it's in a Del Webb 55-plus community.

[00:04:00]Those are very popular. It was a home that was built in 2016. [music] It is on a nice water view lot. It was a three-bedroom, three-car, three-bath, about 2,488 square feet. Now, this one did not have a pool. So, let's talk about what they did with the pricing to begin with. It was priced on the market January 1st, so the very first day of 2026, and they priced it at $849,000 with a certain real estate company. Now, about a month later, [music] they dropped that from 849 to 835,000, and then only 15 days after that price drop, they dropped it to 800,000 even.

[00:04:47]They then canceled that listing with that company and that agent. Now, that doesn't mean that that agent or that company did anything wrong. It actually sounds like the seller here was just unrealistic in their pricing. So, hopefully that wasn't the price that the agent gave them to begin with, but they canceled it, and then a few days later it came back on the market with another agent from a different company, and it was priced [music] at 795,000.

[00:05:17]Okay, that was on March 24th. [music] So, then it was taken off the market, what they call TOM, which means temporarily off market, uh, for just a few days. Maybe they had to fix something or paint [music] something, or who knows what was going on. Uh, but it went off the market for just a few days.

[00:05:34]Then it came back on the market April 17th, 2026, at 785,000.

[00:05:42]So, again, they dropped it. And then, on 4/30, on April the 30th, they dropped it again to 759,000.

[00:05:52]Remember, they started at 849, drop, drop, drop, drop, drop, new company, then they started at 795, then 785, and then suddenly, I think just, you know, reality hit, they dropped it to 759.

[00:06:07]When they dropped it to 759, 1 day later, that home was under contract. So, that tells you where that house should have been priced to begin with. Now, it could have been that back in January, had they priced it under 800 to begin with, they might end up getting more than 755 or 750. [music] They might ended up getting maybe 775. But, because they priced it so high, and then buyers watched that price go down, go down, go down, different company, down, down, down, buyers, of course, you're we're all the same when it comes to this. What's wrong with that house? Why does it keep coming down? So, don't do that to yourself, sellers. Price it right to begin with, so people are fighting over it. They're not thinking something's wrong with your house. All right, so let's hit up my hometown, Parrish, 34219, where the median price is about 410,000, 51 days on the market, and again, four to five months worth of inventory. So, what's happening specifically in Parrish neighborhoods? Well, we are seeing more resale competition against the new construction. Builders are offering incentives, and sellers are having to adjust their prices. So, for Parrish, in the last seven days, there were 35 resale homes with price reductions, and the median amount reduced was 2.26%, [music] and to give you an example of one of these homes that is now under contract after they had some price reductions.

[00:07:44]We're going to look at a resale home.

[00:07:46]It's a D.R. Horton house. It's built in Bella Lago, a pop- popular community over near North River Ranch. It was built in 2023.

[00:07:56]>> [music] >> It's the popular Lantana floor plan, which is a four-bedroom, a two-bath, a two-car garage. Again, it's a resale home. Now, they had added a pool in their backyard. It's a really nice pool.

[00:08:10]And of course it had a water view. So, let's go over what happened with that home. So, that home was listed February 12th, 2026. And [music] at 559,9, 25 days later they decreased it to 549,9.

[00:08:29]So, they came down $10,000. Another 25 days later they dropped it to 539.

[00:08:36]So, they're making $10,000 price decreases here. And then a month after that, they decreased it to 534,9.

[00:08:46]And within two days, uh-huh, you guessed it, they were under contract. So, what does that tell you? It tells you that buyers shop in price brackets. We're going to talk about that in a second.

[00:08:59]Here they started 559,9 and now they're ending up at 534,9. It finally went under contract probably for a buyer who said, "My max is 535." Or maybe even 550, who knows? So, let's talk about what everyone is noticing. And that is that price reductions are numerous and common because inventory is up. Buyers can negotiate again because they are in the driver's seat. And sellers are initially pricing their homes too high.

[00:09:34]So, here's what we're seeing right now.

[00:09:35]Buyers are negotiating either 3% to 5% off of the list price on average. And yes, agents like myself that work with buyers every week, we are showing our buyers what the sale [music] to list price ratio is for any home that our buyers are considering making an offer on. We are seeing an increase in homes for sale with at least one price reduction before they go under contract.

[00:10:05]And for the examples I just gave you in both Parrish [music] and Lakewood Ranch, most active listings are having more than one price reduction. Now again, if you price your home correctly to begin with, then you won't have to make more price reductions as you go along because you're going to have showing activity on your house. If you are not having showings, then that likely means the price is just too high because despite the increased inventory that we have in both of these areas, Parrish and Lakewood Ranch, properly priced homes are going under contract, like I said, in about 15 days. So I've already explained that. So don't shoot yourself in the foot by trying out the market or I hear this a lot, "Shouldn't we price it higher so there's room to negotiate?"

[00:11:05]No, that is not working. I just gave you examples of it >> [music] >> because overpriced listings do not get showings. And without showings, you have no one with whom to negotiate. And we're seeing most price reductions taking place within 15 to 30 days on the market. And of course, those price reductions happen because there's no showing appointments being made. It's really crickets out there when your house is overpriced. So, I want you to remember this critical stat. Overpriced homes are still sitting on the market more than 95 days before they finally get it through their heads, set the correct price, and they go under contract. So, price properly homes are going under contract in only 2 weeks.

[00:11:58]So, look at the difference there. Price it too high, you're going to wait for 95, 100 days, then you get to come to your senses, you price it right, and it finally goes under contract. Or, price it right to begin with, get a few people, you know, maybe >> [music] >> fighting over your home, competing over your home, go under contract in only 2 weeks. That's what the data is showing.

[00:12:20]So, let's talk about days on the market by price band. Remember that buyers are going to shop for homes in price bands or what we call price brackets. For example, if a buyer is pre-approved for a house, let's say no more than $550,000, then they are likely going to look at homes from that $500,000 range, maybe up to about 560, knowing that they might have a little bit of wiggle room on the sales price depending, of course, on which market they're looking in. So, some markets are faster, and you can negotiate it down, and some you're having multiple offers, you can't do that at all. Now, let's say that you are a seller, and your home is realistically market value-wise only a $550,000 house, but you want to price it at 575 so that buyers can negotiate it down, then you really are going to miss out on all of those buyers who are approved and who are shopping in that 500 to 550 price band and you really risk your home sitting on the market longer and of course you're going to have to make that eventual price reduction because I want you to remember also that the buyer that is approved and let's say they can afford the next higher pricing tier, let's say 575 to about 605 thousand bracket.

[00:13:56]>> [music] >> They are now comparing your house at 575 which should be 550 with likely larger homes, more upgraded homes in that higher 575 to 605 range and your unrealistic 575 house is not looking like a better home or a better deal. So, you've really reduced the number of people that are willing to come see your house, well, because buyers are smart and they already know that your home is overpriced and they simply disregard it.

[00:14:37]They ignore it. So, in this example, if your home only has comparable sold homes to support a 550 thousand dollar listing price, don't hurt yourself by pricing it at 575 thinking that there's just some dummy buyer out there who won't know the value because they do know the value.

[00:14:59]Now, I want to break this down the way appraisers and of course top real estate agents [music] are actually analyzing it. So, let's look at that 450 thousand dollar and and below range. That is the fastest absorption, the strongest buyer demand and those homes right under 450 are selling between [music] 15 and 30 days. Now, 450 to 800 thousand dollars, well, there's a lot of competition in that range, and it has the highest rate of price reductions being on the market anywhere between 45 and 75 days after they make those price reductions. Now, if you have a house that's over $800,000, well, that's the slowest house on the market right now. These things, people are looking at the condition and the square footage, the updates, the features, the upgrades. Of course, they're looking at community amenities, and the fees and taxes, and all of that really matters to that $800 and above listing. So, really, you've got to be paying attention to the competition, because these homes are price sensitive, and they're staying on the home 100 days or more. Let's say you have a resale home that has the same floor plan as the builder is still offering in your community, but they're offering it for less with incentives and that's sort of thing. And maybe your home is the same floor plan, like I said, but let's say you have a better lot. You have more upgrades as the same model that the builder is offering new, well, as a resale seller, you really need to price your resale home close to the builder's price, because remember, they are offering incentives [music] that you cannot offer. Now, pay attention to what buyers are paying for your same floor plan with the builder, the one that's still offering that floor plan in your community. Pay attention to what they're paying. Again, I am not saying to price it the same as the builder, but don't be so far off of that builder pricing and say, you know, $50,000 or $100,000 more that you are getting no showings, because in today's market, the builder incentives stand a better chance of winning a buyer. You might be that buyer that says, "I want the lower interest rate. I want the closing costs." And these again, these homes are staying on the market for 100 or more days if they're not reduced. So, if that's you, make sure number one, that you price it right to begin with.

[00:17:35]Number two, be patient because that price range is well, it's not as popular right now due to affordability issues and interest rates and how much taxes are on those higher priced homes. So, because I've already mentioned absorption rate, I kind of want to make it make sense to you here. And this really is the number that tells you everything. So, again, let's say inventory is about four to five months.

[00:17:58]That means that about 25% of all of the inventory is selling [music] per month.

[00:18:04]So, the translation is that you are competing as a resale seller against three to four months of inventory that's sitting on the market around you. So, why are sellers dropping prices? And I want to be very clear here. Price drops are not happening because the market is not crashing. Price drops are happening because, number one, sellers are basing their listing price on very old comps or just not listening to their real estate professional. Number two, buyers are comparing more options out there in the market. And [music] three, new construction buyers are always going to get more incentives. And when your home as a resale seller sits on the market and really starts speaking for you. So, the biggest mistake sellers are making right now, again, I keep saying it, they're pricing their homes too high expecting to negotiate down. But in today's market, you're really not negotiating anything. You're just getting ignored. And hey, if you're a buyer and you're watching this video, I hope you are, this really might be your window of opportunity. I want you as a buyer to look for homes that are sitting on the market anywhere between 20 and 40 days. Watch for that first price reduction and look for sellers that are still emotionally attached to their original price. That is the buyer's leverage right now. So, I told you at the beginning that I'm going to give you the one question that really most sellers, I don't know if they ask themselves this questions, I ask it when I sit with them, and it's the one that really can cost sellers tens of thousands of dollars if you get the question wrong. And here it is. Do you have to sell your home right now? Do you have to? Because if you say yes, I've got to sell my home because maybe we're moving to a new location to be near family or friends, maybe you have a job transfer, maybe you need to have the kids in a different school district, maybe you have to upsize, you just need more space, or maybe you need to downsize because you're spending way too much money on heating and cooling, or maybe you just need a change of scenery.

[00:20:23][music] I hear you on that. I get it. I had to do it. And that's going to help your mental well-being for sure. Or maybe you're just ready to get to the next chapter in your life because you're retiring. Well, [music] you must price, if you have to sell, you've got to price your home strategically from day one. You cannot test the market because you need momentum on your listing immediately. So, I'd rather see you price it right and have several showings and people competing over it than for your house to just sit there and look like stale bread on the shelf.

[00:21:00]You know what happens with stale bread when it's sitting beside fresh bread?

[00:21:04]You take the fresh bread. Now, if you say no, I don't really have to sell my house right now, then I think it's smart for you to give it a little more time and have your real estate professional watch the market for you and watch it with you and then list your home when the best window of opportunity arises in your area, maybe in your neighborhood, for your type of house or wherever you are. Because I can tell you I sit at the table with sellers all the time and some of them I do recommend that they wait to sell. Now, they don't all decide to wait, but the ones that do decide to wait and then I stay in touch with them and we look at the market and then I recommend a more opportune time to sell.

[00:21:54]So, don't ever feel pressured to sell or to buy a home for that matter because your buying or your selling situation it really should be a [music] good experience, not something you feel pressured to do. So, hear me when I say this market is not crashing. What it is doing is exposing really bad pricing.

[00:22:19]And of course, the sellers [music] who understand this, they are still winning. Remember, they're going under contract within about 15 to 20 days. So, I would love to know, are you thinking about listing your home for sale or are these price drops you're seeing everywhere making you hesitate? I really love to hear your comments below if you don't mind putting those in the comments section because it does help me to use more data on this channel and hey, by the way, I'd really love for you to become a part of this YouTube channel family by liking this video and subscribing so that you can be alerted every week when a new video is available where I share the data from our MLS. And of course, like I said, from people like you that give me great comments. And if you're a seller and you would like to discuss your options for selling in this current market, be sure to reach out and we can have a chat about your situation.

[00:23:19]And if you are a buyer and you want to take advantage of the very sweet spot [music] that you currently have in today's market, let's set up a Zoom or maybe a FaceTime or a phone call to strategize the best way to get you in the home that you really want and that you really need at the price you can afford. I'm Katherine Newman. Thanks so much for hanging out with me today. I will see you next time.