Your Food Costs Are About to Spike | Here's When and Why

Added: 2026-05-10

[00:00:00]I want to start today's video with something that might surprise you because I know that it surprised me when I realized what was happening. You may see some headlines or some videos that are telling you that, oh, you know, don't worry. Um, grocery prices are are coming down, you know, everything's everything's going to be just fine. It really is. And most of the time I'm kind of like, yeah, pretty much everything's going to be just fine. This is not one of those times at all. Not at all.

[00:00:32]Because here's what the headlines are not telling you. They are not telling you that grocery prices are actually still going up. The fact is that they have already predicted that grocery prices are going to continue to rise.

[00:00:46]They're just going to do it at a much slower pace than what we have been dealing with. And underneath the soft headline numbers, there are categories where things that you buy every single week are going to double, they're going to triple, and some of them are going to quadruple uh the average rate that we deal with, the the rate that we're used to paying, the beef, the coffee, yes, even the sugar, canned foods, fresh vegetables.

[00:01:21]We we all know this is already going on.

[00:01:24]And uh non-alcoholic beverages because we're all pretty much going to want to drink by the end of this. Today, I want to walk you through um 10 warning signs that I am tracking regarding all of this. Legitimately, things that you can see with your own eyes at the grocery store. Um because I I want you to fact check me. I really do. And I think that's super important. That's how as a community uh we can see what's happening because it's not consistent across the entire country and the prices are not consistent across the entire country.

[00:02:00]Right now in California they're paying, you know, $10 a gallon or more for diesel and here we're paying six. So, you know, it it really is dependent on where you are. But if we as a a community communicate what's happening in our areas, then definitely it helps everybody. I want you to remember this is not a doom and gloom video. I am not about fear-mongering, okay? I am about know what you're looking at. I am about know what you're looking at. Look for the signs because they're there and uh facts because I don't have time for makebelieve.

[00:02:44]I'm too busy. Hello everybody and welcome to Sutton's Days. If you're new here, my name is Lisa and we are all about pantry preparedness.

[00:02:54]Real quick, before we get to, you know, the signs that I'm watching, the things that I'm paying attention to, I want to quickly uh explain why summer specifically, because I am talking about summer, uh is the critical window. This is going to be a very critical window to pay attention to. we are in a I guess kind of a historically unique position that we know the window is there and we need to take advantage of it and there's going to be a remarkable amount of people that are not paying attention or don't believe that that window is there and so you know we don't want to be dealing with them when that window closes.

[00:03:34]Something that we want to remember about summer is that that's when food prices are automatically elevated. You know, it's it's just what happens. The demand for fresh produce, the grilling proteins because everybody loves to grill out and convenience foods, right? Those all peak between Memorial Day and Labor Day here in the US. Now, I'm not sure about the other countries and so I appreciate you hanging with me and definitely if you're in a different country, I I want to know what you're seeing, you know, as far as that happens. Um, grilling season drives beef demand. It also drives chicken. It drives pork. Basically, it drives protein because everybody loves to get together and barbecue. You know, it's a great way to spend time outside, get out of the house, especially if you live in a climate like I do. We are so tired of being inside.

[00:04:26]And beef is already at a historical high. And it's going to get higher. The domestic growing season means that we rely a lot less on imports. And that's important because right now the imports uh you know there's problems with them that I talked about in Monday's video.

[00:04:44]And I'll I'll link the playlist for everything at the end of this video. So summer is actually, if you want to take a, you know, a different look at it, it's the calm before the storm. If prices don't meaningfully drop this summer, and I'm going to show you 10 reasons why they won't, then fall and winter are going to hit hard. They're going to hit a lot of people hard. So, the key to this is that now is the time to prepare while summer prices are still, you know, the baseline because that's what they're going to be. not in October when you're already feeling it.

[00:05:26]Warning sign number one, the USDA numbers are telling the story if you take the time to read it. It's really the first warning sign and it's right there in plain sight. Everyone should see it. So, for this one, I'm going to hit my notes. the the USDA price outlook, the official government forecast, okay, says food at home prices will increase 2.4% in 20126.

[00:05:58]And the media runs with that number that it's good news. Well, I guess if you want to compare it to what we've been dealing with, it's good news. But they've never been factual about what the prices actually did increase previously. They were all saying 2% 3% and we're all going no it was 10% or more. But read the actual report and you find something different. It's it's mindboggling.

[00:06:26]Seven of the 15 food categories that they track are predicted to grow faster than their 20 year historical average.

[00:06:36]Oh, but we're going to be fine. Don't worry. Take a beat. Everything's great.

[00:06:42]Beef and ve up 6.3 to 9.4%.

[00:06:47]Yes. Sugar and sweets up 6.7%.

[00:06:52]Non-alcoholic beverages, your coffee, your juice if you can find it right, up 5.2%.

[00:07:00]Fresh vegetables up above average. Not getting a percentage. And processed fruits and vegetables up above average.

[00:07:09]Now, they're saying originally, okay, the report says 2.4%.

[00:07:17]But the fact is it's going to be 6.3 to 9.4, 5.2, 6.7. That's quite a significant difference. There are categories going down and that's what's pulling the average number down. Okay?

[00:07:35]So if you are not actively, you know, involved in these categories, you're not going to see you're not going to see anywhere near 2.4%.

[00:07:46]So the eggs are expected to drop around 22% this year as the bird flu crisis eases, but they don't mention anything in the predictions about the cost of feed going up because that's all hitting now and that was not part of the original report. They're also saying dairy down slightly. Slightly. I don't know what slightly is. Those two categories are doing a lot of heavy lifting to to make the headline numbers look calm. So, here's what this means practically. If you don't buy a lot of eggs and dairy, everything's going to be higher, significantly higher. Warning sign number two, beef is up 12% yearoveryear and the structural cause isn't going anywhere at all. I've talked about beef extensively in other videos, but I want to hit the key number here because it's a warning all in itself. Beef and ve prices were up 12.1% higher in March of 2026 than March of 2025. Uh, ground beef specifically, which is the most commonly used, is up 15 and a half% from a year ago. And USDA wholesale beef, this is where it gets you. Okay. The prices grossers pay before marking up to consumers are up 19.7% yearover-year.

[00:09:20]That gap between wholesale and retail is super important to pay attention to. It means the full cost increase hasn't even fully hit the store yet, which means it hasn't even fully hit us yet. And here's the part that makes this uh a warning for summer and beyond rather than a problem that resolves because it's not going to resolve as quickly as you seem to think. Uh the US cattle herd is the smallest it's been since 1951.

[00:09:51]There is no quick fix for that. None.

[00:09:56]None. A cow has a 9month gestation period, folks. So, a calf takes 18 to 22 months to reach processing weight.

[00:10:07]There's no quick fix for that. So when like I was saying in Monday's video uh the you know they're predicting we'll start to see maybe a little relief around 2028 but honestly I think that is super optimistic and by then I I really believe that they think we're going to forget where it started and what the prices were. So, you know, prices never go back down once they go up, especially if you're looking 2 to 3 years in the future. Now, summertime, as wonderful as it is, okay, demand for beef peaks between May and September every single year without fail. Every single year. Combine peak season demand with the tightest cattle supply in 75 years and that math does not produce low prices. You can't even wish on a low price with that math. It's not going to happen.

[00:11:12]So warning sign number two quite honestly at the end of the day is that beef prices have a structural floor.

[00:11:19]They absolutely do. And that summer demand is going to push higher, not lower. Warning sign number three, the tariff price tag has not hit your store yet. But hey, it's on its way. This is the one that I want you to really pay attention to because it is it is really the most counterintuitive.

[00:11:41]A lot of people noticed that uh when tariffs were announced in 2025, grocery prices didn't immediately spike. you know, uh, everyone kind of predicted, oh, it's going to go up and we're going to feel the pain really bad and, you know, here it comes. And they took that as evidence that tariffs don't really affect grocery prices because they didn't see it when they thought or when they told they were going to see it. Um, you know, they lied to us, you know, fake news, all that other stuff. Okay.

[00:12:12]Um, but that's not what happened. That's not what happened at all. What happened is that manufacturers and retailers they absorbed the tariff costs internally for several months and they have that ability. I mean profit margins are fantastic. uh they squeezed margins using up pre-tariff inventory definitely making purchasing adjustments like they're not going to buy as much and rather than immediately passing it on to consumers uh you know they just they kind of took the hit. There is a grocery analyst firm uh called spins sp i ns um and they analyzed this specifically and found that the typical lag between a tariff increase and its appearance in the consumer prices is 12 to 18 months. The largest tariff actions came in spring of 2025 12 months ago.

[00:13:17]Industry analysts at Food Navigator put it plainly, very plainly. Okay. The tariff impact hasn't flowed through the system yet. And it is in 2026, particularly late 2026, that consumers will start feeling a meaningful pinch. This isn't speculation. It's the documented pattern of how commodity cost increases move through the food supply chain. It's not a smack, you know, it happens here and smacks you the next day. It takes time to work through the chain.

[00:13:57]Warning sign number three, my friends, you haven't felt the full tariff impact yet. So, do not put it in the comments that the tariffs aren't impacting us because I just can't handle foolishness right now. There's too much going on for people to put their head in the sands and argue with me. I I won't argue. I call them tariff trolls. Yeah. Warning sign number four. There's 10 of these.

[00:14:24]Okay. Your canned goods cost more and the reason is metal. Yep. Plain and simple.

[00:14:30]You don't ever think about the metal, right? Here's a specific one that I think gets overlooked because it seems, you know, boring. It's it's just we're not focusing on the container. We're focusing on the contents. Uh but it matters a lot for our community. uh specifically if you are a preparedness person then you know that we pay attention to what our food is in for how long it can stack you know and it's definitely going to hit steel and aluminum the metals that make cans yes are facing a 50% tariff from Canada and China and that's you know depending on the mood um those are our two primary sources for metal.

[00:15:18]The US food industry uses steel and aluminum for food packaging, storage, and essentially all of its major processing equipment.

[00:15:30]All and we import it. Those are not optional inputs.

[00:15:36]They're they're necessary.

[00:15:39]You can't can food without cans. And yes, I know we call it canning and we put it in jars, but can you imagine the cost of our food if we had to go back to glass jars on everything? Okay, this is a lot. A food economist at Calpaly told FMI, the Food Industry Association, that he expects steel and aluminum tariff costs to tip food price inflation upward through mechanisms that have not fully shown up in the CPI data yet.

[00:16:10]Spins found that categories with high exposure to steel and aluminum packaging posted price increases of 1.7 to 2.8% year-over-year, which sounds modest until you realize the full lag hasn't played out yet. The full lag on the tariffs is not hitting us yet. Those 50% higher tariffs have not shown up on our door. Why does this matter for us? Well, because it's part of the it's an integral part of how our food is stored.

[00:16:46]Canned goods are the bedrock of a prepared pantry. Absolutely. Canned tomatoes, canned beans, canned tuna, canned chicken, canned soups, canned pet food, people. Okay.

[00:17:00]uh all of this is more expensive because the can itself is more expensive and the trajectory is up not down. The smart response here is to do what we always do buy depth while the prices are lower.

[00:17:15]This buys us a cushion in between now and the price increase to you know be able to buffer that extra cost when this all hits at the same time because it will. Okay, you're looking at increased prices for food, increased prices for the metal that contains the food, the tariffs on all of it, all hitting us right around the same window. That's going to be that's going to be a heck of a storm quite honestly. And one of the things that I highly recommend always is learning how to can your own because it's an investment at first. And I mean, I'll happily put the link, you know, where you can look at different canners.

[00:18:03]But if you buy a good pressure caner and then learn how to can the right way, don't follow people who tell you that it's okay to can biscuits and gravy for the love of all. But um you know actual approved methods, you will save a ton of money putting up your own canned goods.

[00:18:24]The biggest thing that you have to worry about then is canning lids. And you guys know I work exclusively with four jars canning lids. They have a great product for a great price. And if you use my link that'll be down below in the pin comment and the description box, then you get 10% off. I highly recommend stocking up a couple years of canning lids. They don't go bad, okay? They just don't. So, unless you live underwater, they're going to be just fine. It's an investment in your future. Canning pots, you know, canning uh pressure canners. Thank you. um they're aluminum and so you're going to want to do something about that too because prior to co okay 2019 I was letting my community know when a 23 court presto pressure caner uh was on sale for 60 bucks and 60 bucks and 70 bucks and what do you mean 120 and now they're about 180 bucks and a presto is a workhorse You don't need an All-American. It's a great caner. If you've got the money for it, you don't need it. I have worked with Presto pressure canners and my four jars caner, which unfortunately at the moment is not available. Um, but I have worked with Presto pressure canners for years. Do you know how many times I've replaced the gasket? Once.

[00:19:56]So, don't let you know, don't let the fearmongers out there tell you, "Well, you should get this." No, you should get the one that you can afford. Remember, electric pressure canners are not approved and considered at this moment safe to use. Uh, and I do not recommend doing it. There has not been enough independent testing to convince anybody that they're safe and that's important, especially when you're looking at different elevations. You know, it just doesn't make sense. So, I wouldn't do that. I just wouldn't. Now, if you can your own foods, it's not hard. You get a better deal. You get more quantity for less cost.

[00:20:38]You can sidestep pretty much every bit of the commercial can cost pressure that is going to hit us. No, I don't know how to make my own cat or dog food and I don't recommend it unless you are going to take the time to talk to your vet to find out what vitamins and minerals need to be in them so that they stay healthy because they do need it.

[00:21:04]So, warning sign number four is the metal that makes the cans is getting more expensive and canned food prices are following. This hits preparedness pantries directly, but we have a window to take care of it.

[00:21:23]Number five, coffee is at record highs and your morning routine is quietly getting very expensive. Now, for those of you that don't drink coffee, that's nice.

[00:21:38]Skip forward. Okay. But for the rest of us who find this to be kind of an important part of our day, non-alcoholic beverages are projected to increase 5.2% in 2026.

[00:21:51]We're only in the fifth month of this year. Okay. The third fastest growing category according to the USDA. And coffee is the main driver of this category. It's going to get ugly. Coffee prices have been up roughly 19 to 20% from a year ago. So, you're not imagining it. It's happened. The reasons are layered. Okay? It's not all the man's out to get us. Okay? Um, it's bad weather in key growing regions in Brazil and Colombia over the past two years.

[00:22:25]Um, it's reduced the crop yields. So, you can't fight mother nature. You really can't. global supply deficits and tariffs on imports from major coffee producing countries compounded the cost pressures.

[00:22:41]Though some of those tariffs were later adjusted, they're still there. Ground coffee at retail is already at or near record high prices. Record high. And unlike beef where there's at least a a visible, you know, biological pathway to future supply recovery, the coffee supply situation is slower to recover.

[00:23:05]It's a it's a plant. Okay? Coffee trees take 3 to four years to reach full production. 3 to four years, my friends.

[00:23:14]Uh that's, you know, that's huge. You can't just plant your way out of a shortage in one season. It's going to take the rest of this decade.

[00:23:26]The World Bank has projections showing some price moderation in 2026 as production improves. But some moderation, okay? Uh from record highs is not the same as relief. It's not. It's a great play on words though, isn't it? And for households that drink coffee every day, which is most American households, I'm sorry that you're not one of them, okay?

[00:23:51]Um, this is a grocery line item that has quietly become one of the most significant individual price shocks in the last two years. I know some of you have said, "Well, I I just stopped drinking coffee." I'm happy for you if you don't eat meat. I'm happy for you. There's there's just, you know, people anyway. So, if you don't drink it, don't worry about it. But for those people that do drink it and have it as a part of their regular routine, I am one of them, okay? Then this is a major impact and it's a hit on the budget because they're saying that it, you know, the percentages are 19 to 20%. But I know you and I are looking at the end game and it's more like almost 50% higher than what it was. So by the time it moves through, everybody that's got to touch it, you know, everybody's got to get their their money back and then some, apparently. Um, this is going to continue to hurt, plain and simple. So, a practical move. Coffee stored properly in a sealed container maintains quality literally for months. Absolute months.

[00:25:08]Buying a 3 month supply of hold beans when you find a good price. Okay? Is not hoarding. Nothing about this is hoarding. It's preparedness. Don't be silly. It's just buying ahead of a a price trend that is not going down quickly. The same as with the canned goods. So, if you can find the whole beans at a decent price because they're out there. And for those of you in Amish country, check out the Amish uh stores that have the the discount stuff, you know, throw them in the freezer. You can throw coffee beans in the freezer. Stops the clock. Yes, it does. Um, grind as you go that way. It's It's a beautiful thing. Otherwise, Yeah. I mean, I have decaf, I have regular, and I have about because I slow down on the coffee in the summer. Uh, I don't drink as much of it as I do in the winter, but uh, you know, I have at least enough to get me probably through the end of the year.

[00:26:10]So, yeah, I'm going to be buying more and I'm going to be sticking it in the freezer. So warning sign number five as a summary, coffee is at high records and the structural supply reasons mean meaningful price relief is still months away, most likely years. Warning sign number six. Fresh produce is about to hit a seasonal cliff. And I'm not kidding you, a cliff. Okay? Um and tariffs will make it even worse. This is a warning sign with the clearest calendar attached to it. This is the one that you can put it on your calendar today be and you can watch it. Okay? But don't just watch it.

[00:26:56]Prepare for it. Um, and I want you to mark it in your head. Mark it in your calendar, your planner, whatever the case.

[00:27:03]Keep that countdown clock ticking because this is the most accurate timeline that you're going to get. Right now in May and June, we're in the transition into the domestic growing season. US gardens and farms are starting to produce. It's a great thing.

[00:27:24]Farmers markets are opening. seasonal produce, strawberries, early tomatoes, squash, cucumbers, is at or approaching uh its most affordable point of the year.

[00:27:37]But as we move into September and October, fall, you know, the domestic growing season winds down across the entire country and we shift our heavy dependence, very heavy dependence on imports primarily from Mexico.

[00:27:55]Mexico provides roughly 70% of our fresh vegetables and over half of our fresh fruit.

[00:28:05]70%.

[00:28:08]And currently, Mexican producers face a 17% tariff.

[00:28:17]The prices are already high.

[00:28:20]We're going to see them kind of level out, maybe dip a little bit into summer as seasonal stuff is available. But the minute fall hits, it's not only going back to high, it's going back to higher.

[00:28:32]As an example, fresh tomato prices have already been reported up 40 to 50%.

[00:28:40]Okay, 40 to 50% in some markets due to import tariffs on Mexican produce.

[00:28:46]That's not a forecast. That's what's happening today. That's why those prices are crazy today, even before we hit peak import dependence in the fall. Warning sign number six, my friends. Okay. The best window to buy and preserve fresh produce is right now. Right now. It's the next 8 to 10 weeks. Did that just give you chills? Because it should have.

[00:29:17]The next 8 to 10 weeks is the best time to stock up on this stuff now.

[00:29:25]After that, you are looking at fall import prices. There's no way to avoid it.

[00:29:33]And the tariff pressure on Mexican produce makes those fall prices significantly higher than they have been historically. And this is the exact reason exact reason that a full cal a full canning calendar matters now. Like a lot. The strawberries in your produce section right now, this is their cheapest moment of the year. They will not get cheaper than right now. The tomatoes coming in June and July, preserve them now.

[00:30:11]Four jars lids are what I trust. You guys know that. And I have an entire playlist. I'll link it in the pin comment the description down below. A full playlist of canning videos where I teach you how to can safely because there is absolutely no point in canning with improper methods because you literally have the potential to take out your family, you know.

[00:30:41]You're not saving anything. You are not saving anything. Do it right or don't do it. But definitely right now. Right now is when you want to stock up on your canning lids. Like I was saying before.

[00:30:55]Buy buy as much as you can afford. Okay?

[00:30:58]But buy it now. Stock it up so that it's there when peak canning season hits. Use the code sutton 10 down below and you save 10%. And you get a good quality lid from a good quality company. And I mean, I have an amazing seal rate. Anytime that I've had a lid not seal with four jars, it's because I missed something. I did something wrong and I figured it out, you know? So, jars not sealing happens. That's not a big deal. Half of your jars not sealing shouldn't happen. That means there's either a problem with your process or with the equipment. And with four jars, I don't have that worry. Warning sign number seven, shoppers are changing how they shop. And that right there should tell you everything. I think that one of the most revealing signs and it's not a price number is the behavior number.

[00:31:57]because prices are going to do this and they're going to do that, but behaviors are typically the effect of the prices.

[00:32:04]And if you watch the behaviors, they change drastically. A consumer research firm, they're called Placer.ai, I have no idea. Um, found something striking in 2026. Shopping data.

[00:32:20]Their shopping data, there's a reason they collect your phone numbers, and it's not because they want to know where you live. Okay? Consumers are visiting grocery stores more often, but spending less each time they're inside the store.

[00:32:33]So, they're going more often, but they're spending less each visit.

[00:32:38]Now, actually, I'm going less, but that's because I've worked to make it that way. Um, I don't know who has time to go to the grocery store multiple times a week, but separately 62% of consumers said in an FMI rolling survey that they are very or extremely concerned about rising prices.

[00:33:00]Another poll, there's all kinds of them, uh, found that 88% of Americans are actively adjusting their financial behavior because of grocery prices.

[00:33:11]88% And private label brands, you know, store brands, now command 330 billion in annual sales and nearly a quarter of a unit share. The share of consumers who believe brand names offer better quality dropped from 44% to 38% in one year. Do you know why? Because the cost made it non-negotiable.

[00:33:40]People aren't just buying store brands because they're cheap. They're buying them because they no longer believe the premium is worth it. So, here's why this is a warning sign. Customer behavior changes like this are what economists watch when they're assessing whether inflation feels, you know, temporary or structural. Here's the thing. It's not feeling temporary. not these kind of behavior changes when people start trip splitting uh abandoning name brands and cutting fresh food from their lists as all of the data is finding those are signs that the pressure has gone on long enough you know that it is reshaping habits you know it takes a lot to reshape our habits we're a little uh stubborn about that I think the word is obstinant but We don't like to have our habits changed, especially when it comes to food or spending money or eating.

[00:34:46]So, we're going to fight that as long as we can until we really just can't justify it anymore. They're not justifying it anymore. So, very simply, warning sign number seven is the way people shop has fundamentally changed.

[00:35:00]That doesn't happen because of temporary price spikes. Not the case. That happens when people stop expecting any kind of relief. Warning sign number eight, shrinkflation is accelerating like a lot. You're paying more, you're getting less. It's happening simultaneously and it's all just something that has become shrinkflation is like a word that we use constantly now. You know, before it was like, oh yeah, you can kind of see that's happening with a few things.

[00:35:29]Now it's happening with literally everything.

[00:35:33]This one is personal for me because I find it genuinely infuriating and I think you do too.

[00:35:42]So, let's talk for just a hot minute about shrinkflation. Okay, it's been accelerating. It's just going to keep going. A survey found that 75% of customers have noticed shrinkflation where a product size is quietly decreased, right? While the price stays the same or goes up. That is shrinkflation.

[00:36:05]3/4 of shoppers are saying that they're seeing it. This is not a fringe complaint, okay? It's not just a random, oh, you know, no, this is mainstream, documented, and widespread.

[00:36:22]After years of blame the inflation messaging, because there's always somebody else to blame, many brands have kept prices elevated, even as their own input costs improved. Like I said, prices don't go back down again. Once they get us used to that higher price, you can bet that's where we're going to stay. The insidious thing about shrinkflation is that it hides the inflation statistics, the CPI measures price per unit.

[00:36:55]If a company drops a product from 16 ounces to 14 ounces and keeps the price the same, the CPI price it stays flat.

[00:37:04]So, you're getting inaccurate information. your grocery bill says otherwise, you know, and because you're getting 12% less food for the same dollar, it's going to be extremely noticeable, but it's not trackable based on that. So, when you hear grocery inflation is only 2.4% this year, like I mentioned at the beginning of the video, that number doesn't fully capture shrinkflation.

[00:37:30]your effective food inflation, what you're actually getting per dollar, is worse than the headline suggests. They just don't want to admit it. So, warning sign number eight, shrinkflation means official price statistics understate the true pressure of your grocery budget.

[00:37:52]They're just going to keep doing it. You are paying more and getting less at the same time. Warning sign number nine.

[00:38:00]The products quietly disappearing from storeshelves. And actually, why that matters? That's number nine. Because this one requires you to pay attention the next time you know you're at the store. And I think once you see it, you can't unsee it. I know I couldn't. Um I couldn't unsee it on a bet. I'm like, what? How did we go from a full aisle down to this tiny little, you know, three foot wide, four shelf high amount?

[00:38:28]What happened to all the products? Or the front facing where there's nothing behind it. You know, they always are fronting the shelves. I mean, people don't want to dig to the back. You know, that's how they make the store look nice when we walk through it. But they're actually fronting the shelves to hide the fact that they're empty. When supply chains tighten or tariff costs make certain imported products uh economically nonviable is the, you know, phrase for retailers, products don't always raise their prices noticeably.

[00:39:01]Sometimes they just flat out disappear.

[00:39:04]The brand consolidates its lineup.

[00:39:08]The retailer drops the skew. It happens a lot lately. And I don't have a lot of, you know, brands that I'm ever so faithful to, but I was for my ketchup.

[00:39:20]And I know I've said it in past videos, faithful as crazy for, you know, this brand. And you can't get it. You just can't get it. If you can find it online, that's the one place that you can get it. But the price is so much higher than it was in the store that I'm like, I don't really I don't really need ketchup that bad. It's not that I eat a whole lot of it, you know. So, you're going to end up making choices like that. You reach for something that's been on the shelf for literally years. It's a regular part of your shopping experience and there are two options instead of eight. That's Yeah, take a look at your ketchup aisle. Um or the section is just plain flatout empty.

[00:40:02]It's getting a little crazy out there.

[00:40:04]We've already seen this happen with specific um olive oil brands. This has been happening for over a year now.

[00:40:11]Okay. The US produces only 2% of what it consumes. I covered that in the the last video. So, yeah, it's just going to going to come down to just a few offerings. And then you get to question it and go, is that really a good brand? Because, you know, there were different grades of quality as far as olive oil. And so, now you're going, am I getting the old bad brand for the old great brand price? Yeah, probably. I mean, look at garlic from China, right? Which produces over 80% of the world's supply, 80% of the world's supply. It faces among the highest tariff rates. You know, garlic's going to go up. Yes, you can plant your own if you have property to plant it on. You don't have to plant like I do. You know, plant a few, figure out how to preserve it, but not everybody has that option. And at this stage of the game, okay, you're going to end up paying extra for the seed garlic. And all of this, it all connects directly to why freeze-dried food matters as a category. And, you know, there's going to be somebody out there who's going to, you know, leave me a comment, whatever. Freeze-dried food is already preserved. It's already done, taken care of. It's already packaged, already shelf stable for decades.

[00:41:32]So, if you buy good quality freeze-dried food like from Thrivalist, okay, it doesn't care what's happening at the ports or the tariff schedule. Anything that you can stock up on today, we're not hit yet with the metal, you know, issue. We're not hit yet with the super crazy cost of everything. And so now is the time to stock up on those freeze-dried foods, the meats, the vegetables, the proteins, the egg. We have egg crystals again. Definitely, you know, those those are things that you can justify purchasing today because you know it will last decades on your shelf if you need it to. It is your backup to your main backup.

[00:42:19]I use it all the time. I keep it stocked all the time. It's taken me over five years to build my freeze-dried pantry.

[00:42:27]But I understood five years ago how important it was. And you and literally in my head as my, you know, as I talk about it, it is my retirement insurance to make sure that we can eat real honest to goodness quality food in the future when prices are too high. I have already bought my 70year-old food. I'm good. Not for as long as I would like to and I'll keep backfilling it, but you know what I mean. This stuff will still be good in 10 years and I won't have to worry about it. That is insurance that you can eat. If you're interested in Thrivalist, I am a connector. I would love to be able to help you out. My link is down below. If you're at my link, you will see my name in the banner across the top of the website. Seriously, very happy to help you start your journey there because I think it's super important.

[00:43:26]Warning sign number nine, products disappear. Skew consolidation are the very quiet early warning signs, but they're not so quiet and they've been going on for a little while, but they have definitely amped up their game.

[00:43:42]when your brand disappears from the shelf, you know, the price pressure was just too much to keep offering it.

[00:43:50]That's happening now in specific categories like ketchup.

[00:43:55]Last but not least, number 10. The food industry itself is restructuring.

[00:44:01]And if you're paying attention at all, it's restructuring. And the consumer pays for that restructuring just like we pay for everything else. The 10th warning sign is probably the most systematic one out of all of them. And I want to be really clear about why that matters. Okay. When I look at what's happening across the food industry today, I see a sector in the middle of a significant restructuring a lot. Uh and historically, restructuring costs get passed down to the consumer. It's how they pay for it. Okay. Grocery Outlet just announced it's closing 36 locations across Pennsylvania, Maryland, California, Idaho, New Jersey, Ohio.

[00:44:47]Yeah, that's a valueoriented ger. So, kind of like how Save AOT here just vanished. They were a value consumer ger. So is Grocery Outlet. Uh the discount channel closing stores.

[00:45:05]Bye. Done. See you later. Uh, not a premium ger, you know, not Trader Joe's.

[00:45:10]Uh, when the discount option shrinks, that should send off alarms. Consumers have fewer choices for saving money. And a lot of the big discount grocerers are closing their doors.

[00:45:29]Meanwhile, Kroger's and Albertson's, two of the country's largest grocery chains, spent much of 2025 implementing cost cutting measures, uh, and losing their CEOs in the chaos of their failed mega merger. So, you know, they have a lot going on, some serious restructuring.

[00:45:51]Regional grocerers are being described by grocery analysts uh as experiencing the collapse of the middle.

[00:46:00]That's that's their verbiage. Losing market share to both discount chains and premium supply stores simultaneously.

[00:46:08]The food industry is also dealing with ongoing labor cost pressures from post-pandemic wage increases, rising transportation and fuel costs, the capital expenditures of a building out e-commerce capabilities that consumers quite honestly now expect. All of these costs have come have to they they have to come from somewhere. You know, they're not going to take it from the CEO who's getting the million-dollar bonuses, right? And historically they come from you and me. Food away from home h restaurants is projected to increase 3.6 to 3.8% this year. It's above its 20year average. That's faster than groceries.

[00:46:56]Faster. As the restaurant prices keep rising, more consumers shift to cooking at home because we don't have the money to go out. Uh this is just the way that it works. which puts more pressure on grocery demand, you know, and it gives grocerers more pricing power, but it also closes a lot of restaurants. And I don't know about where you live cuz I live rural, but our restaurants, yes, there's some fast food and there might, you know, I have to drive to go to a chain restaurant. Um, but otherwise, the restaurants local are mom and pop.

[00:47:29]They're getting hammered. And I just saw a uh uh Facebook post for one of our favorite restaurants.

[00:47:38]And we go there because they are consistently good.

[00:47:42]And they don't even put a price down for their steaks anymore. It's market price.

[00:47:48]They have a chicken sandwich that is honestly epic that is now $15.

[00:47:55]And when I look at that, I go, I think I'm going to get some ugly chicken off my counter and make some chicken salad, you know, because at the end of the day, I can't afford that kind of expenditure.

[00:48:07]I have other things that need my attention and that money. So, the mom and pop restaurants are going to get hammered. Warning sign number 10, the last one is the food industry is restructuring. We are going to take the hit because that's what his that's what happens historically. Okay. We pay for it. We pay for higher prices, fewer choices, and reduced competition. Yay.

[00:48:33]Okay. At this point of the video, please join me in taking a deep breath, kind of rolling those shoulders because now now this is what to do right now. I'm going to lay it out for you. I hope you're still with me. Okay. So, 10 signs, all of them very real. I am not making any of this up. This is research. This is real. This is going to happen. If it's not happening already, now let's talk about what you can actually do with this. Uh because that's why you're here, right? You just don't want to know about the bad news. Tell me how to fix it. I can't fix it, but I can help you navigate it. Action one, you want to buy protein depth. Right now, we are not at the highest peak prices for summer meat yet. So, if you can catch it on what is now considered a sale, I highly recommend doing it.

[00:49:26]Honestly, if we could turn back time, you know, I would be telling you to do it in December and January. We cannot.

[00:49:33]So, if you see chicken legs go on sale for a great price, grab them. If you see chicken, if you see pork, if you, you know, there's still people out there advertising 99 cent a pound pork butt, aka pork shoulder, um, if you can find it, do it. Watch the sale prices. Hammer those, you know, sale flyers or notices on Facebook. I don't get sale flyers. I go looking for my favorite stores to find out how much it costs. So, you want to make sure that you're paying attention to your protein. You want to stack it with depth. It needs depth.

[00:50:05]Make sure you are doing it right. Make sure you are doing it so that you are not wasting money. Do not buy it if you do not eat it. It's just that simple.

[00:50:15]Yes, I am perfectly well aware for all of my troll vegans out there that you can eat beans. Thank you. We appreciate you letting us know. We weren't sure.

[00:50:25]But for those of you that are not vegetarian or vegan or we stopped eating this a long time ago, okay, this is part of how we eat. And because we are obstinate, aka stubborn, we like to do what we like to do. This is how you're going to save money and stack it up so that you can eat it moving forward. Is this going to make it so that you never have to buy it again? No. Eventually, you will be buying it, but hopefully you will be watching sales and buying it cheaper than what is normal for the time that you buy it to backfill what you are consuming out of what you are stocking up. I have a gazillion videos, okay? And I will put two playlists linked at the end of this video so that you can go to either one of those for how to stack your pantry. So, depth, protein, specifically pork, chicken, um because you know, fish is going up and everything's going up. Just stack it. If you don't eat it, don't stack it. Very simple rule. Action number two, build depth on specific categories that the data flags. Okay? So, if I have talked about a category that you know is going to impact you, do that category before fall. If it's multiple categories, do those categories, but do it before fall.

[00:51:46]I am really glad that you guys want to go on vacation.

[00:51:52]That vacation is not going to feed you next year. What I'm trying to do is I'm trying to get it to the point where you understand that you may forego that vacation this year, you know, and use those funds instead to secure your family's food.

[00:52:09]You need it. You just need it. If you can save some money moving forward, if you can stack it up properly, then it's something that you really need to focus on and focus a little bit less on frivolous things. I when I tell you that this is serious, I cannot stress it enough. This is serious and it's going to get ugly. I'm not telling you that the shelves are going to be empty. I'm telling you you're going to be debating on paying prescriptions or house payments or electric bills or food.

[00:52:41]And I know there's some of you already doing that. Action number three, execute your canning calendar within the next 8 to 10 weeks. Put down when that stuff comes into season for you to buy. Okay?

[00:52:55]And plan it out. How many lids? How many jars? How much time are you going to have to spend? Plan it out. A canning calendar is going to help you save a ton of money moving forward because you'll be able to get the produce and whatever else you can get at the best price possible over the course of the next 8 to 10 weeks. Fill in that canning calendar. This is your window. You are in the window now. The window is open.

[00:53:25]Use it. Okay. Strawberries are peeking right now. So, if you want to make strawberry jam, then get them. If you want to freeze dry strawberries, then get them. Okay? If you want to dehydrate them, what do I say? Get them.

[00:53:42]Now's the time to do it. If you don't eat them, if you don't plan, I'm holding myself back. I am reigning it in like a queen because my gut reaction says, "Let's go get a couple flats of strawberries and get those put up." And I actually looked at my husband and went, "We don't want jam, right? We don't eat it. I'm not making it really anymore unless it's a gift to go out for somebody else." At which point that's, you know, that's a whole another thing.

[00:54:11]But as far as us stacking it, uh, no, we don't eat jam.

[00:54:18]So, what am I going to, you know, honestly, me freeze drying it personally, I don't have time for that.

[00:54:24]I have other things going in there and we just don't eat a lot of fruit. So, be sure that it's something that you're actually going to use. Even though the impulse is, oh, I'm not going to get this cheaper than now. If you don't actually eat it, you're not saving money. And those funds can go towards food that you do actually eat. Action number four, 10 warnings, four four solutions, my friends. Okay? Stop waiting for for prices to come back down. Stop. I stopped. I was waiting for the normal chickens going to go on sale for 99 cents a pound. It never did.

[00:55:05]Okay. I ended up buying it for $1.49 a pound. And now I would kill for $149 a pound. So you don't wait. Know what it normally does. Pay attention to it.

[00:55:18]Watch it. It's just going to keep going higher as the summer goes on because that's what grilling season does to us.

[00:55:26]As far as your fruits and your vegetables and anything else, if you use it and love it, my gosh, don't sit around waiting for a sale price if you're not guaranteed 100% that it's going to show up because it may not.

[00:55:42]Every single economic signal in this video is pointing in the same direction up and it's not going to come back down again. And it it it's just not I don't know how else to tell us to stress this.

[00:55:56]The era of affordable commodity food prices that we grew up with, you know, that you grew up with. It's not even just my age bracket or beyond or, you know, younger. It's the stuff that we are used to. It's not going to come back. It is not coming back.

[00:56:16]Not to pre2020 levels, that's for sure.

[00:56:19]Not in a time frame that you know changes your planning. So now is the window. Now is the window of opportunity. When have you ever had a window like this open and say, "You have this time. Use it. Use it wisely. Use it smartly because this is it. And I'm telling you the next eight to 10 weeks.

[00:56:45]This is it. And I don't do fear-based.

[00:56:48]So I need you. That's why the whole 10 thing was as in-depth as it was because I need you to understand the why so that you understand exactly how important it is. The households that thrive in this environment are the ones that accept this reality.

[00:57:04]this is reality and that build systems around it. You can not like it. You can, you know, be mad about it. You can do whatever you want to do about it, but you still need to build systems around it. Buying strategically, strongly, intelligently, preserving seasonally.

[00:57:24]It's time to go back in time a little bit where we eat seasonally, not just, you know, because we want it. and building a pantry that insulates you and yours from whatever happens next.

[00:57:37]Because I swear the bingo card, there's a lot more. It's It's not near full.

[00:57:43]That's what we do here. That is what this channel is about. Okay, that has been that's that's always been what we do here. We stress the importance of having a stock pantry to ensure you against the chaos that everyone else is creating. I don't even care anymore who or why it's being created. I care about the fact that it is and that we have this window of opportunity to get a little bit ahead of it. You can do it.

[00:58:15]It's a matter of prioritizing. It's a matter of making some sacrifices. It's a matter of paying attention and doing it smartly and not fearbased.

[00:58:27]With that, with all of that right there, you will be successful because if you read through the comments and help me out, my friends, if you are one of the people that I have helped and convinced that even on a low income, you can do this, throw it in the comment section down below. If you have any sage advice, throw it in the comment section down below. If you say, "That's why I'm vegetarian and I don't eat meat." Or, "Gee, I gave up coffee a long time ago."

[00:58:55]Do not bother, okay? Because it's not helpful. It's not. It might make you feel good for a few minutes and I don't really care. You know, we're here about helping each other, helping this community move forward through the chaos that we literally have no control over.

[00:59:12]I want to close with something that I I think I try to portray in in every video because I mean it. I mean it every single time. None of what I just told you is meant to make you afraid. I told you 10 warning signs backed by USDA data, okay? Academic research, industry analysis, and honestly my own observations and some of yours. It's not about fear. The point is that you are watching this video. You know what the signs are now. You are aware of them. You know which categories are under the most pressure. You know what the window is.

[00:59:58]You know, and you have the skills or you're willing to take the time to learn the skills. If you want to learn about dehydrating, visit my friend Darcy at the Purposeful Pantry. She has more knowledge available to help you than is available on the USDA site. It's it's just amazing when I realize the difference. And I love the USDA site, you know, the it's not even the USDA site, but you know, the National Center for Home Food Preservation, okay? If you want to learn about canning, I am happy to help you because I'm not going to lie to you. I am not going to tell you to do something that could put you and yours at risk and I back it up with information from the Center for Home Food Preservation because I don't want to take anybody out. I am not going to can biscuits and gravy or cheesecake or other, you know, goofy stuff. Okay. the person who walks into the grocery store this October confused about why everything costs what it costs and with nothing in reserve. That doesn't have to be you. That's why I'm trying to get this through to you.

[01:01:12]That's why I'm trying to to to keep saying it's important and I've given you the data to back it up. I'm not making this up. I am not fear-mongering. That's not what I do. I need you to understand so that you are with me through this so that you are part of the solution that we can actually navigate this. We have no control over it. We absolutely don't.

[01:01:38]So you can whine, you can complain, you can naysay, you can troll the comments, whatever. But I need those of you who actually care to pay attention and to stop putting your heads in the sand. Okay? One sign at a time, one pantry shelf at a time, one canning batch at a time. That's how we do this. And we have this window, this absolutely amazing window of opportunity to pull it off and we can. And I know we will. I love this community. If you are seeing any of these, throw it in the comments section down below. Let us know what state or country that you're in. If you're seeing this, let us know what you are running up against. I don't care if you drink coffee and I don't care if you don't eat beef. Okay, thank you. Um, but otherwise, let us know so that we can keep track of how this is moving across the country. This community is one of the best communities anywhere. You are knowledgeable, you are smart, you are caring, and that's all I care about. I want to be the only rude person in the comment section taking out the other rude people. Okay, so we got this. Until next time everybody, be safe. Keep stacking it to the rafters, my friends.

[01:02:58]Quickly.