The Meh Budget - Bigger Numbers for More of the Same Awful Results

Added: 2026-05-31

[00:00:00]It's an ominous sign when budget day starts with headlines showing homelessness has got to the worst levels we have ever seen in the entire history of the country. But don't worry, hardcore coalition supporters didn't see that headline because anything bad about their lot is behind a paywall or not mentioned at all on the New Zealand Herald site, which is, you know, the number one source of news. And Willis didn't fail to deliver in her delivery of nothing. Stuff called people living in poverty, especially children, one of the biggest losers in the budget after the annual report into child poverty came out that showed that there is no meaningful improvement to be expected for people living day-to-day with issues caused by severe poverty, and there has been a slight increase in the numbers of children living in poverty. It doesn't look like it'll be anything that's ordered in the next 4 years under current budget conditions. The lauded increase in health spending, most of that actually goes to addressing inflationary costs of providing health care or focuses on specific frontline outcomes like lowering the bowel cancer screening age. The outcome isn't bad, but the increased target focus doesn't address underlying structural issues and didn't do anything to help deal with calls from the primary health care providers out there who have been asking for help for this entire term from this government to deal with issues early so that they don't need those later, more expensive, targeted interventions.

[00:01:17]And demands for more departmental savings came through, especially since frontline roles are already being severely impacted by backroom cuts for those landlord tax breaks, which means even more frontline cuts across various departments and ministries. Not the Ministry for the Environment, though, because they actually got rid of that under urgency on Wednesday night despite a 99% response rate calling for that not to happen. On top of all of this, the amount of funds available for media and the creative sector has shrunk. This is a sector actually that creates as much GDP revenue as forestry. But Creative NZ has seen funding reductions of around 27 million, and organizations under the Ministry of Culture and Heritage have been ordered to focus on fiscal outcomes. completely missing the point of public interest funding. This [snorts] impacts a range of creative sector stables like Radio New Zealand, the New Zealand Film Commission, and New Zealand On Air, as well as organizations like Ballet New Zealand and the New Zealand Symphony Orchestra. Although there was an increase in funding for Maori broadcasting that I believe came with a note that says, "Please stop asking the Prime Minister for an interview. He's not going to do it." And David says, "Please stop asking about his connections to the Atlas organization or about his former party president Tim Jagoe who turned out to be a convicted pedophile." Money for school operations has gone up, but only really covers inflationary increases and employer contribution to KiwiSaver. The PPTA has said that this increase doesn't even take real-world spending power back up to the levels that we saw at the start of the pandemic. Early childhood funding is the same. It doesn't keep up with inflation, according to NZ DEI, and that it's fallen behind inflation by as much as 15% and that the Family Boost Plan has failed to actually help families who need it the most. Councils get a new funding stream, a new type of grant.

[00:02:58]They asked for a GST revenue share model on money spent on their councils, but instead they will get a grant based on how many housing consents they give.

[00:03:06]For high-growth areas like Hamilton or Selwyn, that's actually not the worst news, but for areas like Buller, Gore, or Horowhenua, where growth is limited or stagnated, the new funding model offers very little for them. The government also expects to earn just over 200 million in a new bank levy, not a tax, there's a difference, apparently, which is still less than they gave to tobacco companies. Uh and Winston's followers must be having like a massive cognitive meltdown because the gold card is getting an upgrade, and everybody knows how much Winston's followers love the gold card. It's going to become an official form of ID, but also a digital ID, and they hate that idea almost as much as not knowing what's in your pants when you pee, and vaccines.

[00:03:49]They listened to a report from IID on how to better look at the not-for-profit sector for tax, but deliberately buried the IRD report into tax fairness and how the mega wealthy avoid paying taxes under urgency when they were first elected. So, I guess they're happy to pick and choose which IRD advice they listen to. Oh, there's spending cuts to the Public Service Commission, the Ministry of Disabled People, Te Puni Kokiri, and the Ministry of Pacific Peoples. Net Crown debt is also going to go from 182 billion to 246 billion by 2029.

[00:04:19]Yeah, Nicola is continuing her process of borrowing and spending more than we saw under Grant Robertson. So, it's essentially more of the same. More money in places that make good headlines, but the details show it's barely covering the increased costs caused by high inflation, particularly high sector-specific inflation and cost of living issues. Winston got to look good in the budget, which I guess is one way to shut him up for 5 minutes, but don't worry. Next week he's bound to be back threatening his coalition partners, while also telling everyone else he wouldn't work with anybody else.

[00:04:50]The outcomes this budget will deliver though, they're actually pretty clear.

[00:04:53]The degraded outcomes that we've seen across the public sector over the last 2 and 1/2 years are going to continue and will be exacerbated. That means continued higher unemployment, continued migration increases, continued business closures, and continued struggling for everyday New Zealanders, which leads to punching down harder on beneficiaries, those in poverty, young people, Maori, and those needing help the most. It's like setting them up to bear the brunt of the blame for the continued outcomes that the government has set up in place with budgets like this one.

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