LIVE | Petrol, diesel prices hiked again: Anuj Gupta explains reasons for 4th increase in 10 days

Added: 2026-05-26

[00:00:04]Petrol and diesel prices have increased for the fourth time in just 10 days.

[00:00:09]Nearly 8 rupees more per liter in less than a fortnight and people are feeling it every single day. What is driving this? How long will it last? And is there any relief coming? To answer these questions, we have commodity market expert Anuj Gupta with us. Anuj, thanks for speaking to the federal. Welcome.

[00:00:29]Thank you. Thank you very much.

[00:00:31]Yes, sir. Uh sir, we have seen petrol and diesel prices go up several time in a short period with prices rising by nearly 8 rupees per liter. What are the main reasons behind the sudden increase in fuel prices in India?

[00:00:46]See, in last 10 days, we have seen that government increased interest rate by four times and now uh petrol price is costing at Delhi almost 102.12, means 102 rupees 12 paisa per liter in Delhi. However, uh in if we talk about the other cities, uh it's also increased by almost 8 to 9 rupees in recent days. So, the reason behind that uh the higher crude oil prices in international market. Due to the geopolitical tension between US and Iran, we have seen that the shipments are not able to come to India from the Strait of Hormuz. That's why the supply disruption uh has been seen in last uh 70 days and that's due to this we have seen the crude oil prices increase in almost 80% in last 4 months. That's why we have seen the crude oil prices increase in Indian market.

[00:01:38]Yes, sir. I get it. So, now uh regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a lot of attention is on tensions in the Middle East and concerns around oil supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz. Do you think current crude oil prices are rising only because of short-term tensions or could high energy prices continue for a longer time?

[00:01:57]See, I think the main concern of the crude oil prices is the close of the Strait of Hormuz. So, we are expecting that only that the reason is behind the crude oil prices high. If the Strait of Hormuz will open, I think the crude oil prices will correct. And even in last 2 days, if you check that crude oil prices corrected by almost 10%. If you check that international market, WTI is trading around $90 per barrel and Brent is trading around $95 per barrel. So, we have seen a sharp correction in the international market. But yes, definitely the disruption is still not gone. I think the official announcement of the closure of the war or Strait of Hormuz is still pending. Whenever both the countries will announce that the, you know, the war is clean and there is no war and now they are start to open the Strait of Hormuz, then we will see again a sharp correction in the crude oil prices. So, as we seen that India is almost using 5 to 6 million barrel per day crude oil for the consumption basis. And also, almost we have importing 80-90% of that from the offshore. So, I think if the supply chain will start, we can easily, you know, import crude oil prices on the lower side.

[00:03:14]Yes, sir.

[00:03:15]Sir, so government oil companies like Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum had to absorb losses when fuel prices were not increased. Now that prices are rising, are these are these companies simply recovering past losses? Or are they also making bigger profits during this period?

[00:03:36]Uh definitely, if you check that there are the three OMCs, oil marketing companies just like Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited are, you know, cumulative bearing almost 1,000 crores rupee of every day. So, the to overcome from this loss, government increase or raise the price of the petrol and diesel. So, I think the loss is huge, but I think government announced the hike in the price to overcome this issue. If state of Hormuz will open, I think definitely these company will start importing at a lower price and the loss will be, you know, covered. So, it will take time, but it is not a very short-term practice, it's a long-term practice.

[00:04:17]Probably, I think if today state of Hormuz will open, it will take three to four months to overcome these losses.

[00:04:24]Okay.

[00:04:25]Okay, sir. Sir, even if global crude oil prices become stable, the weaker Indian rupee against the US dollars make imports more expensive. How much is the falling rupee adding to fuel prices? And what can the RBI or government can do to reduce this pressure?

[00:04:43]See, weakness in rupee and higher crude oil prices are directly linkage.

[00:04:47]Whenever crude oil prices increase, we saw weakness in rupees because on a higher side, if we import crude on a higher level, the dollar demand has been increased. So, if we if you see that crude oil prices increase almost 80% or you can say 80% last four months, we have seen a rupee depreciated by almost eight to eight to nine percent in last two months. It Why it is because there is a huge dollar demand due to the higher import prices of the crude oil.

[00:05:16]So, if we import crude oil on a higher price, it means there is a huge demand of the dollar. So, whenever huge demand is dollar, it means we are selling the rupee and buying the dollar. So, that will impact on the rupee weakness. So, there is a direct linkage between weakness in rupee and strength in the crude oil prices. If crude oil prices still you know, strengthening, we will see a sharp correction in the rupee. But yes, if state of Hormuz will open, crude prices correcting, then we will see a sharp strength in the rupee also. So, if you check that in last 2 days, crude oil prices corrected by 10% and even we have seen that rupee also, you know, strengthening in last 2 days.

[00:05:55]Yeah.

[00:05:56]Yes, sir. So, regarding the diesel prices, uh diesel is important for transport, farming, and uh supply chains across India. When diesel prices rise, the cost of main uh many daily goods also goes up. Do you expect inflation and prices of essential goods to rise further in the coming months?

[00:06:16]Uh yeah, definitely because if you uh see that uh many central banks just like Bank of England, Bank of Japan, RBI, then uh Bank of England, even Federal Reserve are very, you know, uh keen towards the inflation concerns. So, uh if you see that in last uh meeting and even their last discussion, they are saying that uh there is a more than 60% chances to increase the interest rate.

[00:06:40]So, the inflation is now the biggest uh you know, uh the issues for every economy. Might be in Europe or might be in uh US or might be in the India. But yes, uh to overcome the inflation, they will do some monetary tightening and due to this, they can probably increase the interest rate. So, the inflation is the main concern and if you uh if you see that uh the daily routine products just like milk, bread, butter, and the vegetables are, you know, uh maybe a costlier in a coming days due to the uh you know, higher crude oil prices or higher petrol or diesel prices.

[00:07:12]Because in domestic market, we have seen that many uh goods and vegetables and bread and uh you know, uh bread and uh you know, milk are, you know, conveyed by uh the using the vehicle who are, uh you know, which use the uh you know, diesel and petrol. So, if the prices of petrol and diesel increase, the definitely the retailer or shopkeeper may pass this uh cost to the consumer.

[00:07:36]Yes, sir.

[00:07:37]Sir, in the past, the government reduced excise duty and taxes to control fuel prices and inflation. Do you think the government may step in again with tax cuts or will it allow fuel prices to follow market rates?

[00:07:52]So, I'm not expecting because already these companies are bearing a very big losses. So, I'm not expecting that government will cut any tax or any, you know, the limit because companies are facing a huge losses. So, the main objective right now the government is to reduce the burden on the companies who are facing these losses.

[00:08:14]Yes. Okay, sir. Sir, now the future outlook question. Looking ahead, what is your outlook for petrol and diesel prices by the end of June? Do you expect more hikes?

[00:08:26]No, I'm not See, if you talk about the international price pattern, we are not expecting again a rise in the crude prices because the war situation is going to settle. US and Iran are on a same page and they are, you know, giving clues that they are going to, you know, open the state of war most. That will impact they will increase the supply of crude oil. But yes, in the domestic market we are expecting little bit more hike in the petrol and diesel prices because the huge losses is still on the companies oil marketing companies. So, that will pass on to the customer and even government appeal, Mr., you know, Indian Prime Minister Mr. Narendra Modi appealing that don't use crude oil and petrol only use as per the requirement. Not use excess. And even they appeal he he appeal also to the people that not to buy gold and silver to save the forex reserve. So, it means the main objective of the government is to save the forex reserve for the future perspective. So, I think the petrol or diesel price may be hiked two or three times probably in the coming time. But yes, on a very little base.

[00:09:32]Yes, sir.

[00:09:34]Sir, anything you wish to add, sir?

[00:09:37]See, uh I would I like to add that uh the total uh you know, agenda of the crude oil and petrol will be totally depend on the Strait of Hormuz. If Strait of Hormuz will open, we are expecting that crude price may correct further and it may test 80 to 75 dollar per barrel. If it come at 75 to 80, definitely uh probably I think government will also, after you know, increase the price, they will start reducing the price of petrol and diesel.

[00:10:02]That will impact positive on the economy. So, I think uh if Strait of Hormuz will open, supplies will be there, then definitely government will start reducing the petrol and diesel prices.

[00:10:13]Yes, sir. Sir, thank you so much for joining us and breaking this down for our viewers. Uh stay tuned to stay tuned to The Federal for more updates. Thank you.

[00:10:23]Thank you very