Tesla Stock is Going to $1,000+ Over the Next 12 Months... Here's Why..

Added: 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]Ladies and gentlemen, welcome back to the channel. In today's episode, we're going to talk almost exclusively about Tesla stock and you know where things are going for Tesla specifically. Today was a weird day. Tesla kind of sold off alongside the semiconductor trade. I don't think that's going to continue, but hey, we do have some catalyst upcoming. Tomorrow could be a pretty crazy day for markets as well because Trump will be in China if if we get any news on that. It could uh tell us a lot and Elon Musk is going to be alongside Trump for that China visit. So there can obviously be some big uh big moves in association with Tesla. Now Tesla scraped back uh a good chunk of the losses today. At one point, Tesla's stock was down almost 5%. It closed down about 2.6%.

[00:00:59]But I really want everyone in this video to think bigger picture here. Okay. Ron Baron on CNBC today said that he thinks Tesla's stock is going to be over $2,000, $2,500 per share um over the next handful or two handfuls of years.

[00:01:19]I've said on this channel, I think Tesla's going to be a $500, $600 stock by midterms. So, that's pricing in not a lot happening between now and November 3rd. A little bit more upside, about $70 to $170 of upside over the next five, six months or so. Things get crazy after the midterms into the end of this year.

[00:01:43]I think Tesla could be around a $900 stock. Um, in the next year by, you know, March, April, Tesla could be like a $1,200 stock. By the end of the year next year, Tesla could be a $1,500 stock. I I I think I think the upside could get a lot more aggressive than uh a lot of people are expecting. So, we'll talk about that, what's happening tomorrow in today's episode. my short-term and long-term expectations essentially for Tesla stock. Hit that like button, subscribe to the channel if you guys have not done so already. And you guys already know if you guys want to come trade and invest alongside of us in our high conviction investments where we are looking for these five baggers, these 10 baggers, these outsized opportunities. That link is down below in the description of today's episode.

[00:02:34]More on that in a few minutes. Let's begin. Okay, so there was six things today that really drove markets lower.

[00:02:41]The first one that drove semiconductors lower. Nobody was expecting this, which is kind of funny because um we actually got this news um last night uh yesterday and markets didn't respond to it right away. It's like that it was it was a little bit delayed but there was a bad semiconductor tax proposal in South Korea.

[00:03:09]You have to understand SKHEX and SanDisk are like 60% of the stock market over there. So like if you're thinking about what drives profitability in that country from a business perspective, it's semiconductors. Okay. Um I think I think it's Pandora's box. It opens a lot of fears once you start taxing um businesses based on how they do. I'm not concerned about this, but considering semiconductors have done so well, it definitely came across as a little bit of a shock today. Number two, Trump China meeting fears. People are concerned if there's if there could be bad news like that's not going to be great for markets. Markets have been kind of pricing in that risk for the last couple of days. Number three, higher oil and no end in sight for the Iran war. Trump has basically said, "Look, Iran's not going to have a nuclear weapon. We will, you know, block the straight of Hermoose as long as we have to." It doesn't seem like Trump wants to I don't want to say he doesn't want to end the war, but there's there's no urgency, it sounded like today, to end the conflict. So oil went up about 4 and a.5% and that caused stocks to come under pressure. Number four, slightly higher core inflation, like slightly higher. Uh Wall Street banks were expecting around 0.36% month overmonth CPI. It came in at like 0.375%.

[00:04:42]It was basically in line with expectations. But via oil going up again, I mean 10 year Treasury yields went up like five basis points. There is now a 30% chance of a rate hike this year. There is a greater chance of two rate hikes than one rate cut. So this obviously mixed with everything else negatively affects Tesla. Negatively negatively affected really any area of risk on not just semiconductors but like literally everything. Um, number five, Kevin Walsh was confirmed to the Fed today. Um, this is something kind of flew under the radar because people have other things on their mind, but it's uncertainty.

[00:05:23]I think this will be a net positive for markets over the coming weeks, but it's uncertain. Jerome Powell is no longer the head of the fair, the fair, the Fed.

[00:05:33]Um, it is Kevin W. And then number six, Nvidia earnings are still up coming.

[00:05:38]Semiconductors still are sitting on some big gains.

[00:05:41]um ever, you know, over the past couple of weeks. So, uh yeah, Nvidia tends to sell off after their earnings. So, I'm not like I'm not bullish on semiconductors right here. Okay. Now, again, my investing strategy is I'm trying to 5x my money, 10x my money in the next two to five years. That's kind of how I operate. So, I'm looking for big outsized winners w with where semiconductors are priced today. Congratulations if you hit that trade. I've hit that trade over and over and over again. It's kind of ridiculous.

[00:06:16]It's it's it's getting boring at this point. Like, can we have something else do well? Um, you know, I bought Nebus at $22 a share. I bought Applied Digital at $3 a share. That stock's like $45 today.

[00:06:27]I bought, you know, NVTS. I think the stock's in the it's $19.33. I bought that at a$1.70. I like to find value where value is present. And for a while there was a lot of these under the radar kind of opportunities specifically last year. Nebiius, Nardis, and Apply Digital, two 10xers and one 8xer all last year. So like now I just don't see the value there. I don't see the opportunity. Now we do know Tesla is building a terafab. Uh maybe that has something to do with the algorithmic response today in Tesla's stock. Tesla looked more like a semiconductor than anything else. Um which is interesting.

[00:07:09]Tesla's also went up a lot recently. But again, back to the point, Nvidia has earnings over the next two weeks or so, about two weeks from today, I believe.

[00:07:19]Um and like 80 to 90% of the time Nvidia sells off after earnings. Um really in the last couple of years there's really only been like one time Nvidia has went up after earnings. Um like immediately it tends to fall uh after earnings every time. The only time I guess two times um back here in February of 2024, Nvidia reported earnings and went up after earnings and then it did chill out and came came down like 10ish% um about a month after earnings. And then back here the next earnings in May of 2024, Nvidia went up uh after earnings and then kind of did the same thing about a month, month and a half later, the stock did go through like a 20 plus% pullback. But literally every other time Nvidia falls after earnings in the weeks following. I guess this earnings too. Nvidia kind of went up and didn't really go through a big decline until the the following earnings. So I guess if you had to point out one earnings, it was the earnings of May 2025 where Nvidia kind of just went up after earnings and continued to go up.

[00:08:33]like even every other earnings besides that May 2025 quarter, you seen a pullback within four to six weeks after Nvidia earnings, right? Uh like a substantial one, not like a 2% pullback, like a 10 20% pullback. Um every other earnings, especially recently, Nvidia has reported great numbers and done nothing. It's it's came down, right?

[00:08:55]It's it's fallen. Back here three earnings ago, what happened? Well, Nvidia reported earnings and then over the next couple of days, Nvidia fell 11.3%.

[00:09:07]Two earnings ago, Nvidia uh you guys might recall this, Nvidia went up a lot in after hours and then just completely sold off afterwards. Nvidia sold off 13 and a half% in the over about three days following their earnings. Um last earnings Nvidia uh reported earnings actually fell 5 and a half% after earnings. Peak to trough decline. Okay. I I hate when uh Weeble does that and doesn't let you see the percent. Peak to trough decline was about 17%. So in the last three quarters, Nvidia has fallen 11%. What' I say? 17% and 13.5% over the past three quarters. Look at the rally we've seen thus far. It's going to sell off again. Now, does that take Tesla down with it in the very near term? It's possible. I think it depends.

[00:10:04]If we have other positive things to kind of react to and offset that, like if the war with Iran were to end or lower tariffs or something good comes out of the Trump China meeting, then uh that could be a separate, you know, catalyst for Tesla. So, I've been pretty straightforward about this. I do think we are going to see a rotation over the summertime. Um, I mean, we can go over this again, but I' I've covered it a lot on this channel. I think money is going to move out of the recession trade and the war trade like consumer defensives, industrials, energy, utilities, basic materials into the software AI winners.

[00:10:44]You know, the companies that are reporting great earnings um that just there's there's no money for them, right? All of the money has went into semiconductors. It's been killing the liquidity in this market. Okay.

[00:10:58]>> Well, I think uh as Nvidia reports and semiconductors chill out for a while, that could really benefit software. At the same time, if the war with Iran ends, this rotation out of the war trade, out of the oil trade, out of the recession trade also going to benefit software exponentially. I think uh cyclicals are a very easy no-brainer way to play lower oil once the war with Iran does end. Tesla's about 20% of the waiting of consumer cyclicals. Okay. So, I do think from that perspective alone, there's going to be a big tailwind for cyclicals to do well when the war with Iran ends. Question is, does it end tomorrow? Does it end 10 months from now? I don't know. So, that is to be determined. I I'm imagining it's going to end at some point soon. I think there's a lot of political pressure on Trump that Trump obviously wouldn't um admit to, but I do think that's the case because it is a midterm election year.

[00:11:56]So whether or not, you know, oil falling actually benefits Tesla or not is another question. But money will flow into cyclicals from money managers um and traders. And about 20% of that money is going straight into Tesla. Regardless of whether you think oil positively or negatively affects Tesla to begin with.

[00:12:18]So that's going to be a big uh tailwind for Tesla. I think whenever it happens, could be a day from now, could be a couple months from now. I don't know. I think semiconductors are probably dead in the water at least until September, October. Um, I think there's a lot of risk to semiconductors and especially from my investing strategy where I'm trying to, you know, 5 10x my money in the next two to five years. I'm trying to find these outsized opportunities.

[00:12:46]They're almost non-existent in semiconductors at this point. Almost.

[00:12:50]There is one that I like and that is core scientific just to be, you know, open, honest, transparent with you guys.

[00:12:57]But other than that, there's really no value in semiconductors at this point.

[00:13:01]Now there's a lot of risks. If any of the hyperscalers slow down capex, they don't have to cut it, but if they stop raising capex, then you have no more good news to react to. That will be problematic. I also think financials are set up to do really well. And then technology, excluding MAG 7. Now, I think Tesla can do well. I think Microsoft could probably do well again because software is going to do well. Uh well, I think a lot of software is uh dog but I think some software is going to do well. And I think Microsoft is one of those that is not dog You know, I think Microsoft has a seat at the table and a pretty damn big seat at that where, you know, Wall Street's just they're going to cozy up to Microsoft, I think. Okay. I think Microsoft's kind of like Google was a year ago where everyone's kind of scared. They're kind of nervous. And then Microsoft's going to show, hey, uh, I'm one of the top dogs here still.

[00:13:58]Okay. So, ex I don't like Meta. I don't like Google. I don't like Amazon. I don't like Apple. I don't like Nvidia here as far as Mag 7. Not that they're bad companies or I think they're going to crash. I just don't think they offer a compelling investment case for the next two to five years versus Tesla or versus Microsoft or versus maybe Oracle or Cyber or some of the software winners or some of the financials or cyclicals, right? Are could they do well? Of course. Of course. Are they going to outperform? Well, welcome to the law of large numbers, okay? Probably not.

[00:14:38]We'll see if they cut their capex uh guidance. Yeah, they're going to do really well. If if Amazon comes out and cuts their capex guidance, Amazon's going to go up like 20, 30, 40% from here, probably pretty quickly.

[00:14:54]Semiconductors are going to get smoked, right? That's the risk. That's the tradeoff. So, very weird market that we are in, but generally speaking, over the summertime, I think cyclicals are going to do well. Emphasis on Tesla there.

[00:15:07]It's about 20% waiting of cyclicals. I think financials are going to do really well and I think tech excluding Mag 7 specifically within tech software. Some of those software stocks that are winners that are executing with AI that are you know growing revenues. There's some software companies trading at PEG ratios between 0.3 and 0.5 that are growing revenue 50% year-over-year with exploding free cash flow trading like they're dog companies, right?

[00:15:39]There's still a lot of fear here in the software um sector and I think uh I think some of those fears are really going to die down over the next 6 12 months. I think a year or two from now there's going to be millionaires made with some of the software winners or even something like a Tesla right now. Ron Baron said today, quote, "Now is the time for Tesla. I think the stock is going to be $2,000 or 2500 over the next 10 years. At $2,500, that would make Tesla roughly 8.3 trillion company, 5.7x higher than today. I agree. Okay. I think Tesla um is going to be a $900 stock by roughly Q1 or so of next year.

[00:16:23]Why? Assuming the you know targets here don't get pushed back. We're expecting Optimus production in August, September. I mean, hell, Tesla just cancelled the Model X and the Model S to make room for production of Optimus and likely Cybercap, but Optimus as well. I think there's a timeline here that is pretty credible when they're doing something like that. Okay. Um, just my opinion.

[00:16:57]And look, as um was it Morgan Stanley's an analyst uh just said, Alex Alex Potter, I think it was said yesterday that you're basically buying Tesla without any you're basically getting Optimus for free. So assuming that Optimus comes to market August, September, production begins to really ramp next year, that's going to be a big focus by investors and the terminal value of that business is many multiples of the entire Tesla business today. So this is the term that I try to focus on teaching a lot terminal values. So one reason why I don't think we are in a bubble right now. I don't I don't think we're even close to a bubble is because look semiconductors like the what is Nvidia's terminal value like what is the value that Nvidia is going to get to one day before there's no more growth left before they turn into a dividend behemoth I like it's a lot higher than where it is today why because we haven't even entered humanoids robotics generally um healthcare or or any of the other businesses that are going to come about from AI. You know, just humanoids alone, I can tell you means Nvidia's terminal value is a lot higher than where it is today. All else equal. Okay? And all the data centers being built are going to have chips that need to be, you know, put in, taken out, blah blah blah. I can confidently say the terminal value of Nvidia and these semiconductors are you know specifically Nvidia that's the one that really matters is um higher than where it is today but does that mean that's a good investment over the next one to two years does that mean it's going to outperform the markets absolutely not it's priced in a lot of good news but 10 20 years from now do I think Nvidia is going to be higher than where it is today of course I do because of the larger AI thesis Are some of the memory companies hitting some of their midterm terminal values already? Probably. Now, that's that's a topic for a whole new video, but basically Samsung um they're not bringing as much memory supply to the marketplace. So, that's really given pricing power to um the other players and that should correct itself next year. So like even if memory stocks have hit their terminal values for the next 5 to 10 years and it takes 5 to 10 years for those stocks to recover theoretically here we're just we're just theorizing like the money is just going to go into the other areas that are doing well right software AI Tesla humanoids robotics healthcare whatever it is financials cyclicals are going to benefit from a larger economy And the real problem that I have with a lot of people comparing today to the year 2000 is look those companies they were barely business plans trading with multi-billion dollar valuations. They didn't even have a plan to monetize.

[00:20:14]Okay. The ones that did the ones that did well that actually succeeded like an Amazon made you a lot of money, right?

[00:20:23]Not all 2000 stocks were bubbles, but a lot of them had hit these these terminal valuations that they were never going to achieve. Okay, I don't think we're there right now. Even if SanDisk, you know, never like hits a new all-time high, I don't think that's the the market getting decimated right now. If Nvidia um you know somehow was at a terminal value, humanoids never come, like healthc care never advances with AI, there's there's no more new business lines that need GPUs. um then the terminal value for Nvidia might be lower than where it is today. I don't know what the replacement cycle value of the data centers and chips would look like. Maybe that's a two three trillion dollar business. I you know I don't know that for for certain but my point is this is not a bubble in the way that a lot of people think. But it doesn't mean that semiconductors are going to keep going up. I think the baton is going to get passed to other areas and other stocks.

[00:21:30]So again, for next year, I think the focus is going to turn to to humanoids.

[00:21:35]And when you're thinking about the terminal value of humanoids and ultimately infinite labor, what is the end valuation to that?

[00:21:46]I like, dude, we could all throw around numbers and speculate, but I mean, you're talking millions and millions of Optimus bots being like kind of like the data centers, a lot of it would be front run, right? Everyone's trying to get their hands on humanoids because there's this chronic lack of of labor, blah blah blah. So you you know it's it's going to be a rush to get as many humanoids as possible once the capability is there.

[00:22:20]Every business everywhere is going to want going to want some um due to labor economic costs and the the chronic lack of labor. Some countries there's going to be more demand versus others obviously something like a Japan or South Korea something like that. But e every country everywhere there's going to be massive demand and it's going to be like data centers right like right now it's it's a rush to get as many GPUs as possible and put them into a data center stack right eventually it's there's not going to be a rush to build new data centers like they will come about when they come about but there's going to be a replacement value to that right like Nvidia is never going to not have revenue revenue, right? There's probably 10% of all the chips they sell are going to need to be replaced every year, right? They buy a chip, it might have a 10-year life cycle, or maybe it's 20% of the total supply of chips every year have to be reproduced.

[00:23:25]Same is going to be true for Optimus.

[00:23:27]So, there's going to be like an initial couple of year period where there is crazy demand for Optimus.

[00:23:35]Could be a billion robots, right?

[00:23:37]There's eight billion people. I I I wouldn't think that's too crazy. Maybe half a billion, 500 million Optimus robots. Maybe that's the initial demand.

[00:23:46]And then the replacement values 10, 15, 20% of the total supply per year, right?

[00:23:55]It's almost impossible to ter to put a terminal value on something like that when you know just a replacement value could be you know 100 million Optimus robots per year I don't know times 30,000 I mean like there's there's a lot of value there so that that's where I kind of think there's going to be some hype to Tesla next year. Now, it's very possible at some point Tesla will do so well that it's like, okay, let's relax a little bit. Maybe you've priced in too much good news and then there's a one to twoyear hiatus in Tesla stock. That's a possibility as well. I think that's more of a 2029 2030 kind of an issue, but we're nowhere close to that. that we're nowhere close to like an unreasonable terminal value for Tesla. And that's why I do have um these big expectations for Tesla going ahead. Now, tomorrow, again, as I mentioned, tomorrow's going to be a weird day. Okay, a little bit of a weird day. So, Trump is going to arrive in China 10 hours from now, nine hours from now, something like that. So, he's going to be in China by the time the markets are opening tomorrow. We'll see if there's any headlines or news that that comes out of that. On the on Trump's calendar here, you can see there's a closed press event um at 8:00 p.m. tomorrow. There's uh an event at 7:30 p.m. tomorrow as well. Looks like there might be press there. Um and then Trump and China's president will meet tomorrow at 1000 p.m. This is technically 10:00 a.m. Thursday China time. So, China's 12 hours ahead of us.

[00:25:48]So, tomorrow night, Trump and China are going to meet. So, you're going to get some news, likely some headlines overnight, tomorrow night. But people are going to kind of price things in tomorrow. They're going to make their bets. They're going to move money around, short the markets, go long the markets. You know, certain stocks and areas are going to have some weird price action tomorrow would be my expectation.

[00:26:13]and it could could be a bit of a weird day. Um, we know Elon is accompanying Trump on his trip. So, uh, yeah, that that puts Tesla right in that weird category. Some weird things could, uh, happen tomorrow for Tesla, uh, in that regard. But it won't be until tomorrow night that we will get some, you know, headlines likely coming out. So, you know, let me know your thoughts on all of this down below in the comment section.

[00:26:43]>> Curious uh what you guys think about all of this. That is it, ladies and gentlemen. Have a fantastic rest of your night and I will see you in the next