Google Is Becoming Microsoft

追加: 2026-05-14

[00:00:00]But right now we got to pivot back to Microsoft because those shares as I pointed out are falling sharply by more than 11% as the company's CapEx spending plans [music] spook investors despite the fact they topped second quarter.

[00:00:11]>> You don't choose Microsoft anymore.

[00:00:13]You inherit it.

[00:00:15]And by the time you realize that, it's already too late to leave.

[00:00:20]It's on the computer your school issued.

[00:00:22]It's in the software your job requires.

[00:00:25]It's in a format your client expects to file in.

[00:00:28]You didn't decide any of that.

[00:00:30]It was decided for [music] you years before you ever sat down at a desk.

[00:00:36]And the strange part, you probably don't mind.

[00:00:40]Not because it's perfect. Not because there's nothing better.

[00:00:45]But because at some point, Microsoft stopped being a product you chose and became a system you live inside. But Microsoft wasn't the end of this story.

[00:00:58]It usually doesn't happen all at once.

[00:01:01]Something small changes. A file doesn't open the way it used to. A feature disappears. A login appears where there wasn't one before.

[00:01:09]And for a second, you wonder if you did something wrong.

[00:01:14]But you didn't.

[00:01:15]The system changed.

[00:01:18]Think about how often that happens now.

[00:01:20]You open something simple and it asks for more. More permissions, more updates, more connection.

[00:01:28]It doesn't feel like control, but that's exactly what it is.

[00:01:34]There's a moment, most people don't notice it, when software stops serving you and starts keeping you.

[00:01:42]Menus shift.

[00:01:44]Defaults change.

[00:01:46]Features you relied on quietly move somewhere else or disappear entirely.

[00:01:51]And the data you've built up over years sits inside a a that only one company fully understands.

[00:02:00]You could leave, theoretically, but where would you go?

[00:02:05]And what would you lose?

[00:02:07]What if Microsoft didn't just build a product, but a system you can't leave?

[00:02:12]And somewhere, quietly, while most people were busy adapting to all of this, another company was watching, taking notes.

[00:02:23]If you find these kinds of stories interesting, the ones behind the systems we use every day, consider subscribing.

[00:02:31]Because this is just the beginning of a much bigger story.

[00:02:45]To understand how this happened, you have to go back.

[00:02:48]Not to the beginning, but to the moment it became inevitable.

[00:02:53]In the 1980s, IBM needed an operating system for its personal computer.

[00:02:58]Microsoft had one, or more accurately, Microsoft acquired one, licensed it, and sold it to IBM.

[00:03:06]A small deal, a footnote, almost.

[00:03:09]Except it wasn't a footnote.

[00:03:12]It was the blueprint.

[00:03:14]Because buried in that deal was something most people overlooked.

[00:03:18]Microsoft kept the rights to the software.

[00:03:22]IBM could use it, but Microsoft could sell it to everyone else, too.

[00:03:27]And they did.

[00:03:29]MS-DOS spread into businesses, schools, government offices.

[00:03:34]Windows followed, and then Office. Word, Excel, PowerPoint became the language that institutions spoke.

[00:03:44]And at some point, it stopped being a choice.

[00:03:47]Not because Microsoft forced it, but because everything around you started to depend [music] on it.

[00:03:53]By the mid-90s, you didn't choose Windows because it was the best option.

[00:03:57]You chose it because your colleagues were [music] on it. Because your employer required it. Because the files you were sent were doc files, and doc files opened in Word.

[00:04:08]And once that happens, the decision is already made for you.

[00:04:11]The network effect didn't grow the product, it just made the product necessary.

[00:04:17]But this wasn't just success. This was the beginning of something else.

[00:04:22]Because once Microsoft was everywhere, it didn't need to convince you anymore.

[00:04:27]It just needed to make sure you never had a reason to leave.

[00:04:32]And it turns out that's a very different kind of business.

[00:04:37]For a long time, Microsoft sold you software. You bought a disk, you installed it, you owned it. That was the deal.

[00:04:46]And for a while, that deal made sense.

[00:04:51]Then somewhere in the 2010s, the deal changed.

[00:04:56]Office became Office 365, then Microsoft 365.

[00:05:02]The software didn't disappear, it changed shape.

[00:05:05]Monthly, recurring, tied to an account.

[00:05:10]At first, it didn't feel like a strategy, it felt like an update.

[00:05:14]But it wasn't an update.

[00:05:16]It was a decision.

[00:05:19]Because now, Microsoft wasn't just selling you a product, it was building a system around you.

[00:05:26]The software moved into the cloud, your files moved with it.

[00:05:30]Your identity became part of it. Email, calendar, storage, meetings, all connected, all syncing, all reinforcing each other.

[00:05:40]You used Word, so Word connected to OneDrive.

[00:05:44]OneDrive connected to SharePoint.

[00:05:47]SharePoint connected to Teams.

[00:05:49]Teams connected to Outlook.

[00:05:51]Outlook connected to your entire working life.

[00:05:55]Each piece made the next piece more logical, and together they made leaving complicated.

[00:06:02]This is what an ecosystem does.

[00:06:05]It doesn't trap you with walls. It traps you with convenience.

[00:06:12]Because every alternative means giving something up.

[00:06:16]Something small.

[00:06:17]Something familiar.

[00:06:19]Something you've already built your routine around. And over time, those small things add up.

[00:06:27]Users didn't leave. They adapted.

[00:06:30]They stayed logged in. They stayed synced.

[00:06:34]They stayed.

[00:06:36]And Microsoft slowly, deliberately became something else.

[00:06:42]Not the tool you use, but the layer everything runs on.

[00:06:47]Ask someone why they haven't switched, and the answers sound reasonable. My company uses it.

[00:06:52]My client send docx files. My IT department manages it. I already know how it works.

[00:06:59]None of those are bad reasons.

[00:07:01]They're just not really about preference.

[00:07:05]They're about cost.

[00:07:06]Not the price you pay every month, the cost of leaving.

[00:07:11]The cost of relearning something you've used for years.

[00:07:14]The cost of moving files.

[00:07:16]The cost of things not working the way you expect them to.

[00:07:20]You try something else for a day, maybe two, and then you go back because the file didn't open properly.

[00:07:27]Because something looked different.

[00:07:29]Because a small task took longer than it should have.

[00:07:33]Nothing breaks completely. It just doesn't feel right.

[00:07:37]There are alternatives. There have always been alternatives.

[00:07:41]Linux exists. Libre Office exists.

[00:07:44]Entire ecosystems built around the idea that you should be able to leave.

[00:07:49]But most people don't.

[00:07:52]Not because they can't, but because the friction is real.

[00:07:56]And the reward isn't immediate.

[00:08:00]So people adapt.

[00:08:01]They adjust their workflow. They learn the new interface. They complain about the subscription price, and then renew it anyway.

[00:08:08]They stay logged in.

[00:08:10]They stay synced.

[00:08:12]They stay.

[00:08:14]And the system keeps working.

[00:08:16]Not because it earns their loyalty every day, but because leaving was never quite worth it.

[00:08:22]That's the real achievement.

[00:08:24]Not the software, the staying.

[00:08:28]Now, what if Microsoft wasn't the only one building a system?

[00:08:34]What if someone else solved the same problem in a completely different way?

[00:08:39]In 1998, two graduate students at Stanford launched a search engine. It was faster, cleaner, more accurate than anything else available. People used it because it worked.

[00:08:50]Then came Gmail. Massive storage.

[00:08:53]No folders to manage the way older email systems required. Then Google Docs, then Drive, then Maps, then Chrome, then Android. Each product simple, fast, connected. And most importantly, free.

[00:09:09]You didn't need approval to use it. You didn't need IT to install it. You didn't need to think about compatibility. You just open a browser, and it was there.

[00:09:19]And because it was easier, you used it more.

[00:09:22]Email, your files, your searches, your phone, all connected, all tied to one account.

[00:09:29]But it didn't feel like lock-in.

[00:09:31]That's what made it powerful, because nothing was forcing you to stay. There were no contracts, no licenses, no obvious barrier. You [music] chose it every day.

[00:09:42]Or at least it felt that way.

[00:09:45]Because the more you used it, the more natural it became. And the more natural it became, the less you questioned it.

[00:09:53]Here's the difference.

[00:09:55]With Microsoft, you can see the system.

[00:09:57]You see the software. You see the subscription. You see the lock-in.

[00:10:02]You know you're inside it.

[00:10:05]Google doesn't work like that.

[00:10:07]Because Google doesn't need you to see the system.

[00:10:10]It just needs you to use it.

[00:10:13]Microsoft locked you in through software, through formats, contracts, and the weight of everything built on top of it. Google did something different.

[00:10:23]It built its system around behavior.

[00:10:27]Not what you install, what you do.

[00:10:30]What you search, what you click, what you read, what you ignore.

[00:10:35]The thousands of small decisions you make every day without thinking about them.

[00:10:41]And over time, those decisions start to shape the system around you.

[00:10:45]Until one day, you're not really choosing anymore.

[00:10:51]You're just continuing.

[00:10:55]You don't install Google. You live inside it.

[00:11:00]The search engine knows what you're looking for before you finish typing.

[00:11:04]The maps know where you're going without asking. The inbox filters what matters and what doesn't. The phone predicts what you'll do next.

[00:11:13]And none of it feels intrusive because none of it interrupts you.

[00:11:17]It just works.

[00:11:18]Quietly, constantly, invisibly.

[00:11:23]That's the difference.

[00:11:24]Microsoft built a system you depend on.

[00:11:27]Google built a system you don't even notice.

[00:11:32]And that's what makes it harder to question, harder to see, and much harder to leave.

[00:11:40]We tend to think of technology as [music] neutral, something we use, something we control.

[00:11:46]But systems like this aren't neutral.

[00:11:48]They shape behavior.

[00:11:51]And the most powerful companies of the last few decades didn't just build better products. They built environments, spaces you move through, spaces you depend on.

[00:12:02]Microsoft did it through software, through formats that were becoming the defaults.

[00:12:10]Not because it was always chosen, but because it became unavoidable.

[00:12:16]Google did it differently. Not through software you install, but through habits you form, through convenience, through repetition, through thousands of small decisions that never feel like decisions at all.

[00:12:31]One system is visible, the other isn't.

[00:12:35]One asks you to stay, the other makes leaving feel unnecessary.

[00:12:40]And that's where the difference becomes something else entirely.

[00:12:45]Because if Microsoft built a system you can't escape, what happens when Google replaces the system itself?

[00:12:52]We'll get into that.

[00:12:54]In retrospect, [music] stories behind the decisions, secrets, and turning points that shake our world.