SpaceX IPO: Elon Musk’s Next Wall Street Moonshot | Daily Market Update, May 22 2026

本站添加: 2026-05-22

[00:00:00]Good morning traders. Matt Weller here, Global  Head of Research with Forex.com. Today is Friday the 22nd of May 2026 and major markets are  consolidating ahead of the Memorial Day holiday in the US, which gives us an opportunity to look  ahead to what could be one of the defining risk appetite events coming up over this summer,  the SpaceX IPO. Let's get into it. First, a quick summary of the price action. We've seen no  new developments between the US and Iran of note.

[00:00:32]Major markets are broadly consolidating heading  into the long holiday weekend. And I do want to note that the Treasury market will be closing  early today. So that could lead to a drying up of liquidity, potentially low volatility unless  we see a surprising announcement as traders start their weekend early. But the main focus of  today's video is what's shaping up to be one of the biggest events for the market and markets  more generally as we head into the summer. Earlier this week, SpaceX filed its S1 filing ahead of an  IPO. So, we'll see the road show start as soon as next week ahead of the IPO, which is likely  around the June 10 to June 12 time frame. SpaceX is targeting a $1.75 billion valuation, which  would put it uh in the top 10 for the largest companies in the world, but I'll note they're  only looking to raise about 75 billion. So, there will be a relatively small free float  relative to the size of the company. Now, if you look at the financials, it's pretty difficult  to make at least a backward-looking case for such a high valuation. The company lost 2.6 billion  in 2025. That was on 18.7 billion in revenue.

[00:01:48]However, the prospects may be more optimistic  moving forward, including a recently signed contract with Anthropic around data centers and  AI that could pay SpaceX 1.25 billion per month until May of 2029. I will note though that that  contract can be cancelled by either side with, I believe, a 60-day notice. So, there are  some risks to that. I don't think traders and investors will necessarily uh guarantee that  we'll see that contract play out through the end, but that certainly contributes to a more  optimistic picture for SpaceX's financials moving forward. But broadly speaking, this is a story  stock. So, if traders are growing more optimistic about the potential for space, data centers  in space, mining, uh any number of factors, that's where we could see SpaceX really  rise after the offering. And conversely, if we start to see more of a focus on actual real  returns and profits, that could weigh on SpaceX stock. One more wild card to watch around the IPO  is whether major indices will include the stock.

[00:02:48]That could lead to a lot of uh programmatic  buying from passive traders. And notably, that takes place uh at the end of the day ahead  of the inclusion in the index the following day.

[00:02:58]So if that happens on day one, we could see a big  raft of passive buying heading into the close and that could be something that traders are looking  ahead to as it trades on its very first day. Just to put this IPO into context here, here are the  largest IPOs we've seen in history. And the big line at the top is the projected uh valuation of  SpaceX absolutely dwarfing all the previous IPOs.

[00:03:22]though perhaps if we look at this chart say a year  down the road we could see IPOs from the likes of Open AI or Anthropic that could be on this same  scale but clearly a major theme here as there's immense appetite for some of these high-flying  tech names and that's something that uh could be a theme as we move forward. Now of course SpaceX  is not publicly traded yet. That's the whole point of this video. But we can look at some proxies  that are companies like Rocket Labs, ASTS, GASAT, VSAT. All of them have gone pretty much parabolic  here. Uh looking at the one-year chart here, some of them are up on the magnitude of 600%. At the  bottom, I've highlighted two space ETFs. Those, of course, are lagging because they're much more  diversified, but also seeing very strong one-year returns on the magnitude of about 80% all the way  up to 160%. So there's clearly massive investor appetite for space companies and that could be uh  a seminal moment for the market as this IPO comes to light. Certainly it's something you want to be  watching obviously if you're interested in buying it or maybe even shorting it. But more broadly  it could have a big impact on indices given its high valuation and crucially it could have a  impact on risk appetite more generally. So, you'll want to be keeping a close eye on markets  when that IPO is announced to see how it performs on its first day, first week, first month, and  beyond. That concludes today's video. Thank you for sticking around to the end. If I can ask  just one favor before you go, please do drop a like on this video. It helps more people see  our videos. It helps us with the algorithms, and it would be a big favor to us. Also, if  you're not already, please do subscribe to our YouTube channel, Forex.com. Thanks again.  Best of luck with your trading and have a great