6.36% and holding despite Middle East instability

[00:00:00]The Iran ceasefire that was announced April 8th is technically still in place, but Trump himself called it on massive life support last week. There have been violations on both sides. There have been exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE was attacked twice, and the United States has a naval blockade on Iranian ports. You'd think all of that would have pushed mortgage rates higher. It didn't. Rates were 6.37% the week I published last month's video.

[00:00:26]And as of last Thursday, they're at 6.36%.

[00:00:29]Essentially flat for 5 weeks. That tells me the bond market has basically priced in an indefinite stalemate. Not peace, not an all-out war, just a slow grinding standoff. That's not great, but it's not the rate spike a lot of buyers were afraid of. As fragile as it is right now, it's also still in place. If it fully collapses, oil prices spike again, mortgage rates likely spike again, and buyer behavior absolutely shifts. If it stabilizes, potentially the opposite.

[00:00:57]But who knows what new shenanigans this government can get us into? Either way, the May data will give us [music] the first honest read. Follow for more East Bay real estate tips.