5-13-26 Who's Move, and What About International Markets?

Added: 2026-05-14

[00:00:02]Hello ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Wednesday, May the 15th, and the Bulls and the Bears are trying to decide whose move it's going to be. Interesting day yesterday. It was a Vbottom yesterday after I did my video around noon. Market took off. We also have a bit of a Vbottom right now today, too. So, it looks like an up and down movement. This is something that typically happens near tops, especially if Wall Street wants to rotate. So, we'll have to keep an eye on that. But, uh, a lot of the big names, of course, semiconductors are still doing well. We'll take a look at that in a second. We'll uh also show you what uh what market on the splash screen said, what market is this? I'll show you what that is here in one second. I'm not a financial adviser, so this is for educational purposes only. Let's take a look first at the um 10-minute charts. I want to look at those. I want to show you something new that I added there.

[00:01:03]Also 10-minute charts down here. We can see the uh aggressive sectors with the S&P. You can see the S&P is right in the middle of its daily expected move.

[00:01:14]Here's Monday and Tuesday. This is the range that it was in. And since we're pretty much staying in that range, I would expect the rest of the week it might stay in that range as well as we head into options expiration on Friday.

[00:01:27]So keep an eye on that. So you can kind of see the V right here. So here's the V bottom yesterday. Went right down here till about 11 to 1, right about when I was doing the my video and then we took off here right at 1:00. Almost made it back to the open today. We moved down the first 20 minutes, first 30 minutes, and then reversed and went up. So now we're moving back higher. Technology is not as high as it was yesterday.

[00:01:55]Discretionary is down, communications down, financials are down, industrial.

[00:01:58]So again, it's technology that's leading the market, but it is a little bit weaker than it was yesterday as the market sold off. Money flow looks pretty good though. Let's look at the defensive sectors. They are down as well. So really it's all about technology and in particular semiconductors. Here's um materials and energy. Both of those aren't doing too much either today. And the rotation chart growth versus value is up slightly but pretty much flat since last week. Discretionary versus staples down. I showed this yesterday.

[00:02:32]Uh as well as the equal weighted version of it. Technology is up but again not quite back to yesterday's high or Monday's high I should say and semiconductors also moving up but again not back to Monday's high. So we'll see if those can carry us forward as we head into options expiration. This is the one one of the areas that concerns me right now. It's the breath. I talked about this uh yesterday as well. You can see this is the S&P on the top. As the S&P has been moving up, percentage of stocks above the 20, 50, and 100, and 200 day are continually to move down. In fact, the 20, the 50, and the 100 are all below the 50% level with the percentage of stocks above their 20-day is at 40% right now. 45% for the 50. So that indicates that even as the market that shows you that it's a very small range of stocks, very few stocks that are pushing this market higher. In fact, in general, the market is just moving sideways. It's we've got three blue bars for this week so far. So the market is just moving sideways as the breath continues to decline or deteriorate. So this is really important to watch. And you can see the bullish percent index down here is at 51% almost half. So this basically shows you how many stocks are in a bullish configuration and even as the market has moved higher the number of stocks in bearish configuration configurations have increased. So that is continuing to move lower. So this shows weakness in general in the market. So we still need to be a little bit careful. Here's the that V bottom on the Russell again this morning pulling back but not right not back to yesterday's close yet. But you can see the u midcaps and small caps are underperforming the large caps and also breath continues to go lower. In fact, it's accelerating lower on midcaps and small caps. And the NASDAQ 100 which is holding everything up. There's the Vbottom from yesterday. Today pull back a little bit but really is starting to take off. Still within the daily expected move for today. Uh so we'll see what happens by the end of the day today. Money Flow is looking okay, but the volume, look at the volume, and the advancers and decliners, even as the NASDAQ 100, this is just a few names pushing it up. Nvidia is moving higher again as it moves into earnings. Um, but even though I got out of Nvidia yesterday, it's that's okay. I I'll I'm fine staying out, especially into this week and the beginning of next week. And as you can see, advancers minus decliners is negative and the volume is negative as well. But the VIX is cooperating. The VIX is now at right at 18. Still in that neutral zone between 17 and 20. Um got almost up to a little over 19 yesterday. Uh but today it's seems to be cooperating. So not really any panic going on in the market. All right, let's take a look at that uh chart that I showed.

[00:05:39]What market is this? So down below you can see the total US market right down here. And this one up here is just screaming higher. So what market do you think this is? You'll be uh interested to see some some of you might have already guessed it. This is South Korea.

[00:05:59]South Korea is just accelerating higher.

[00:06:03]Uh I'm going to show you the international markets here in a second, but South Korea is moving higher primarily again because of the AI play.

[00:06:11]So South Korea has a lot of names like Samsung for instance, a lot of other major players in the chip um industry and those are really pushing the South Korea market higher. EWY is the ETF. So if you wanted to play South Korea, you can do it with EWY.

[00:06:30]If we want to look at the other international markets right down here for those that are subscribers on the website on the bottom of this blue column see the performance graph for international there's South Korea. Now you can see everything side by side with the rest of the markets. So South Korea is just screaming higher. This is a year-to-ate view. So even from the very beginning of the year South Korea just started heading up. Here's emerging markets right here. Japan is right behind and then the US. The US actually has been moving up. Uh Canada and then Germany pulling up the rear as far as performance since year to date. We look at this on a relative basis also year to date. We can see now that emerging markets is looking pretty good.

[00:07:14]It's actually moving back up near its high even though the total US market continues to move higher. South Korea considerably outperforming everything else. So this these are performance relative performance graphs. So this is emerging markets versus the US market.

[00:07:30]This is South Korea versus the US market. Germany underperforming the US, Japan underperforming and Canada underperforming the US. So really it's South Korea and emerging market. So they're two places that are doing pretty well. Um actually this should be EW. Let me change that so you'll know what the symbol is.

[00:07:54]This should be EWY right here.

[00:08:01]That is the South Korea market. All right. So, that's what that looks like.

[00:08:05]Uh let's also take a look at uh currency pairs. See what they're doing. Here is Japan now bringing up the rear Swiss. These are all versus the US dollar. Of course, these are currency pairs. You see the US dollar is moving up. So, it is gaining strength versus all of the other international pairs.

[00:08:27]The Swiss Frank, the British pound, uh, are still outperforming a little bit.

[00:08:32]Canada is pretty much even. And then the Euro and Japan are both underperforming the US right now. So, you can you can always take a look at those, see what those currency pairs are doing. The uh JGB, Japanese government bond, we haven't looked at this in a while. Look at that. It's almost back up to its high again. 30-year. If that continues to go higher, that potentially could take liquidity out of the world, the global market, and in particular the US. So, something to keep an eye on. Also, the uh 10-year Japanese 10-year bond starting to move up as well. So, we I'll show you that in relation to the US.

[00:09:14]Here are the spreads right here.

[00:09:17]So, there's the US dollar. Um, still moving down, started to come back up, but pretty much going sideways. The 10-year yield moving up a little bit today, but still uh it's at 4.46. So, it's higher than what the what the government would like. 4.3 is where usually the Fed steps in and does something, but I don't think they can do anything right now. They can't lower rates uh because inflation's going up and the job market is just fine. So you can see Germany 10ear up here and the Japanese 10-year just continues to move higher and the spread between the two is the important thing to watch. the spread between the the US 10ear and the Japanese 10-year moves down below this about one and a half level then that's where things might start breaking in the global markets and uh that's where money uh or liquidity might move out of the US market back into the Japanese market so that's something that we need to keep an eye on right now it is okay but continues to move down you can see ever since 2025 and even this year. It's moving lower even this year as well. So, keep an eye on that. All right. I want to look at um I want to look at a few things over here. The put call ratio in particular.

[00:10:35]Let's look at that up here.

[00:10:39]Where do I did I put my put call ratio?

[00:10:42]That's CPI right down here. Here we go. Put call ratio. Fiveday put call ratio. We'll look at this in a couple of different ways. So this basically is uh put call means if this is going down there then more calls are being bought meaning everybody is more positive and when this is going up that means more puts are being bought which means the market is in general starting to get more negative. But as long as it's in this mid section in here this neutral zone then usually the market is okay. Even though you can see here a lot more calls are being bought but the market moved up as calls were being bought. Right now we are down below this red line below 0.52.

[00:11:23]That means everybody is bullish. There are really aren't any sellers right now in this market and we're going sideways here in the last three days. The VIX you can see is pretty tame down here sitting right in between in that neutral zone.

[00:11:37]Um so all of this implies that the VIX rate of change is it's moving up slightly but it's really behaving it itself right now. This means that everyone is bullish and that's okay.

[00:11:49]everyone can stay bullish and the market could move higher. But at some point, if anything happens where um large investment houses decide to start taking profits, if this starts to move down, this right here is going to be a rush towards the door because everyone right now is buying calls. Everyone is very, very bullish right now. Another way to look at this is on the 10day moving average.

[00:12:15]We'll do that with the S&P. You can see right here, here's the S&P as it moves up. You can see right here this this here's the bottom in March 31st right there. You can see there were lots of puts. So puts were way up above this level here. That means everyone is bearish. And usually that is not sustainable. It usually will reverse when it gets that far away. And that's exactly what happened. It reversed started to move the the S&P moved higher which means people were getting out of their puts and getting into calls instead. So, they're buying calls, meaning they're more and more bullish.

[00:12:47]And now they are extremely bullish as we get down here. So, now it's below that level, pulled back up slightly, but then went back down again. So, extremely bullish right now. There really are no sellers. Wouldn't take much to push this market over and for this to go back up, but there's no telling when that might happen. All right, let's take a look at a couple of other things. Let's look at the uh risk on riskoff chart for the high yield corporate bonds. This is a risk off scenario or a negative divergence. You can see high yield corporate bonds uh are declining not significantly but slightly even as the S&P moves up. So think of this as uh bonds usually are the smart money. It's they're actually moving out of bonds slightly even as the S&P moves up. So that is a bearish divergence. Something to keep an eye on. No telling when something might happen. Over here you can see there was a um bullish divergence when they were moving back into bonds even as the market went lower. Right here there was a bullish divergence. They started going back into bonds even as the market was moving lower. Right now it's the opposite.

[00:14:00]They're moving out of bonds even as the market is going higher. So something to keep an eye on there. Let's look at the um high low charts.

[00:14:10]Let's see. Let's look at the S&P high low charts. So, you can see here we now have a uh this is new highs minus new lows. It is negative right now. So, there are actually more new lows being made on the New York Stock Exchange. On the S&P, there are more uh new lows than new highs right now. In fact, it's accelerating considerably more. And then the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment reading is actually sitting right in a in a pretty neutral area. And there are fewer uh bears. You can see there are fewer and fewer bears.

[00:14:49]This when when these two things are opposite like this, that's not necessarily a good thing because you've got more new lows even though the sentiment is bullish. So again, there aren't any sellers right now. Even though the market is making new lows for the S&P, if we look at this on the NASDAQ, which is where most of the action has been, we see the same thing. There's new lows on the NASDAQ. Very few actually today. This is today. This is uh yeah, today, May 13th. Very few new highs being made today. Here's the NASDAQ 100 where most of the large cap stocks are.

[00:15:30]As you would expect, the new lows are a little bit less, but actually there are more than the new highs today. So this just today, in fact, this this actually looked pretty healthy yesterday. Lots of new highs. But keep an eye on this. Also up here, NASDAQ new highs minus new lows is negative. So there are actually new lows being made even as the market continues to go higher. All right, let's look at the um the breath indicator. I'll do this for the NASDAQ 100 once again. Here's the put call ratio. So now you can see everything together. Here's a percentage of stocks above the 20-day. It's below 50% right now. Above the 50-day just slightly above 50% and above the 200 day is looks okay. But bullish percent index is dropping like a rock actually right now. So those all continue to move down for the NASDAQ 100 even as the price is near the top. So, these are all just warning signs. It does not mean the market's going to crash. It's just a warning sign to to be aware of. Watch out to see what's happening. Um, the Mlullen oscillator. Let's look at that.

[00:16:39]This basically shows you the moving average of advancers and decliners. And you can see right now it is negative.

[00:16:45]It's just moved negative. Bullish percent index for the S&P moving down once again. So, there are more decliners than there are advancers right now. even though the market is moving up, that is a sign, that's a warning sign that uh you need to be care a little bit careful of what's going on. And keep in mind, too, that this I believe this is over a 30-day period. So this is actually working off some of the um excess from back here as the market was going up and there were advancers in through here that the decliners began to outpace the advancers way back here right in this area as we move sideways. So you kind of expect to see that as the market moved in a sideways pattern but then the market started to break out but the advancers actually continued to decline.

[00:17:35]So, that again is just an early warning sign that something might be going on.

[00:17:41]All right, let me go back here and uh take a look at the AI buildout stock list. For those uh that haven't seen this, click on this button right here.

[00:17:49]You you'll see the data center ecosystem up here. Uh I I would like or ask anyone that is a stock charts member to vote and follow this. You can do that just simply by clicking on this button right here. That will take you to the list.

[00:18:03]We're currently ranked at 22. What I learned yesterday, however, is that the the voting needs to continue because the votes will what uh stock charts does is it um it uh moves the votes out as time goes on. So, they don't want these to be to get stale. So, anyone that uh is a stock charts member, if you could just go in there once a day and click on that, I would really appreciate it. Just click on the vote button. You don't have to click the follow button again, but just click the vote button. so we can continue to keep the votes coming in.

[00:18:35]We're still ranked at number 22 right now, which is great because last Thursday we were 107. We weren't even on the list. One thing that I added to the list is this ETF, and this is the AI data center ETF. It's one of the few pure play ETFs out there that captures most of the names in the U data center buildout list. And you can see it looks very similar to most of the other AI stocks, but this is at the top of the list now. So you'll you'll see this right in the beginning of the list if you just want to see in general what does the overall AI data center play look like. This will show you what it looks like right there. Still moving up and then we go down into the individual categories like compute. There's AMD individual stocks in there. And by the way, if you click on the the last button there's 10 10 stocks per page. Click on the last and the very last one is the South Korea uh and s and this one looks very similar to the uh AI buildout ETF.

[00:19:36]So if you just want to see the South Korea chart, it's at the end of the list. You just get there by clicking on that last button or click on the first button and you can look through each of those. So, if you could please go back in often, vote often and early. Um, and I would really appreciate it. Hopefully, we can move up the list even more. All right, let's take a look at that list and see who's in first place today. Um, where did I put my AI buildout list?

[00:20:06]Here's uh intraday. Let's look at 15 second refresh. So intraday we've got a Neocloud named NBIS up 15% today. Marll up 8%. High is having a great run up 8% again.

[00:20:24]Network some network stocks are up. You can see it updates automatically.

[00:20:30]Shows you which ones went down and which ones went up. Here's the South Korea fund down here. Cipher continuing to move up. So those are all Here's Coree starting to move up a little bit too.

[00:20:40]where we've sold off quite a bit. So that's that's what those look like.

[00:20:44]Nvidia still hanging in there at 226 up two and a two and three/4ers percent today. We'll see how things go as we move into options expiration. Uh and then finally I'm going to show the scan.

[00:20:57]Now in this particular scan I am scanning for the criteria that is the entry point on the AI buildout list. So if you look at the public list over here, it actually shows you the very first one right here shows you the criteria. So above the 200 day, that's where these arrows are right here. And each each one of these charts has the entry point right there. Uh there's the criteria. The impulse bar must be green.

[00:21:25]Those are these bars right here. So green means both um both trend and momentum are moving higher. Red means both trend and momentum are moving lower. and blue just means they're neutral. Um, right now we're in a blue category right now, but the impulse bar must be green and the ADX green line has to be above the ADX red line you see down here and it has to be above 25. So, both of those things have to be true in order for this to get all three of these have to be true.

[00:21:59]above the 200 day impulse bar must be green and the ADX green must be above the red and above 25. And then I show the relative strength versus the S&P on each of these and the relative the individual relative strength the RSI on each one too. So that's the criteria. So what I'm what I've done is on the scan I put that exact criteria in here. So we've got the green ADX crossing the the red. It has to be above 25. has to be above the 200 day and the bar needs to be green. So, let's see if there's It doesn't really produce much. And we do have one Dow Holdings, a chemical stock, actually made the list today. So, that means this might be a good entry point right here for Dow. Um, it's above the 200 day and all the other criteria has been met.

[00:22:53]You can see the green is just crossing the red. It's above 25. So Dow might be one to to think about. It's in a sideways consolidation right now. It does have improving momentum.

[00:23:06]So that's moving up. It's it's in a squeeze that looks like it's firing to the upside. So that looks like a interesting one to keep in mind.

[00:23:17]And then here's the RSI right here. RSI is above 40 and moving up. So that's the only one that made the list today. All right, let's go back and take a look at uh what the market's doing. I'll do this with the indexes. So, the S&P right now.

[00:23:33]S&P is still a little bit higher, not much higher, but a little bit higher. Uh sitting right at the call wall and still within the weekly expected move. So, everything still looks bullish for the S&P. Here's the NASDAQ 100 also within the weekly expected move, right in the middle, in fact. and the Russell 2000 also in the middle of the weekly expected move, but that one's moving down slightly. Um, and down here is you can see the um the VIX is right in the neutral zone. So, all of these things are still positive, constructive for the market, uh, implying that the market could just move sideways. So, this could actually, if it just moves sideways for a while, then the 21 will actually catch up. So, the 21 will actually meet the price up here if the market just moves sideways. But we'll see what happens, especially as we move into Friday and into next week. All right, thanks for watching everyone. Let me know if you have any questions, comments, anything you want me to check out. Please click on the thumbs up button. Please like and subscribe. Share it with friends if you could. I'd appreciate it. If you want to keep this channel going and uh let me know what your thoughts are, if there's anything you want me to change or do differently or anything you want to see each day. Thanks for watching and I'll talk to you tomorrow. Take care.