I'm doing this before the Black Swan

追加: 2026-06-02

[00:00:00]Michael Sailor just sold Bitcoin and a lot of people are wondering could this lead to a black swan scenario if Micro Strategy was to crash. Well guys, in this video I want to share with you the metrics that would absolutely and certainly put us in a black swan scenario as well as show you some XRP price charts so you can see exactly where XRP is headed and how it would react. Guys, there is some very, very bullish news to go over outside of the micro strategy news. But in this video, we're going to break down everything you need to be paying attention to. And guys, what could potentially unwind here that would definitively mark a bottom in the cryptocurrency industry? Like always, you support me so much to this channel. Thank you to everyone who likes and subscribers. With that said, let's jump right into it. And I hope you guys enjoy the content. Let's jump into it.

[00:00:42]And there's a lot of news going around right now around Micro Strategy, specifically because Michael Sailor just sold Bitcoin. Now, a lot of people think it's his first time selling Bitcoin.

[00:00:53]It's actually not his first. This is the biggest sale in a while. But guys, two things you need to be watching in terms of Micro Strategy because I think these are probably the most important things to be paying attention to. One is that for the first time really in an extremely long time, the Micro Strategy MNAV has just gone negative. So, this white line is the MNAV associated with Micro Strategy's company value in comparison to the Bitcoin they hold.

[00:01:19]When this orange line is trading below the white line, essentially Micro Strategy is less valuable than the Bitcoin they hold on balance sheet. Now, this is a big problem for the company because it's essentially the market saying there's absolutely no point in Micro Strategy the company. No one wants to pay anything extra to have Michael Sailor hold their Bitcoin. And in fact, people are saying you're not even worth the Bitcoin you're holding because we believe there might be a risk to you going bankrupt. So MNAV going negative is something that we have to be paying attention to in terms of if the market is convinced that Micro Strategy is going to survive. Now maybe more sketchy is actually their STRC product. This is a product that pays a 12% dividend I believe 11% 11 and a half somewhere around there. Now, the problem is is this thing is supposed to stay pegged at $100. And what we're watching right now is a potential DPEG on STRC. Now, I'm not going to get into the complicated nature of these products, but essentially Micro Strategy MSTR is the common equity. Michael Sailor is essentially diluting the common equity, using that to pay out dividends through STRC. STRC is this ticker right here.

[00:02:35]It's supposed to stay at $100 as a preferred stock. And essentially, people are making the bet that Michael Sailor will be able to keep buying Bitcoin.

[00:02:43]That Bitcoin is going to be used to essentially pump up MSTR stock. He can then dilute MSTR stock and then pay people out a dividend through STRC. Now, in my opinion, this is all just one gigantic financial engineering complex machine. And whether or not this continues to go on and go on, or whether or not something breaks in this loop, that's yet to be seen. If it was to break, I think things would be pretty catastrophic for Bitcoin and Bitcoin would take a massive sentiment hit. Now, taking a look at the charts, this is actually the first time that Michael Sailor has sold in about two years, but he has sold before, and the last time he sold just so happened to mark the local bottom for Bitcoin. So this is potentially actually pretty bullish showing that the last time Michael Sailor was put in a position like he is right now. It was actually the local bottom for Bitcoin. But guys, the doomsday scenario and the black swan type scenario would be this. It would be that Micro Strategy, right, stops trading in line with Bitcoin and this MNAV just keeps going more and more negative. At that point, you essentially enter a death spiral where because Micro Strategy is essentially being valued at nothing, Mike Michael Sailor can't dilute the stock anymore because it crashed the company's value and he can't create enough value to pay out the stretch holders or the STRC holders. If that was to happen, you kind of see this entire scheme fall apart right in front of us. And then boom, you have potentially one of the largest holders of Bitcoin now being forced to sell Bitcoin onto the open market. The only way I think you could recover from that type of scenario would be if the United States government came in and said that they're going to take over Micro Strategy, put Micro Strategy in receiverhip so that they could save the cryptocurrency market. they could build out their Bitcoin reserve that they never ended up building and essentially save the market kind of like they bailed out the banks in 2008. Now, this is pretty speculative at this point. We'll have to see what happens. I don't think Micro Strategy is going to be going under at Bitcoin's current prices. But if Bitcoin continues to fall, based off of what we're seeing happening to Micro Strategy's common equity, it potentially gets very dangerous for that company continue to exist. Because essentially, if they have to stop paying their dividends because the common equity goes down so much, people are just going to look at the entire thing like it might be a potential Ponziike investment. Now, I'm not calling them a Ponzi. I'm just saying that if this stuff starts to unravel, that's going to be the narrative in the market. And that's potentially a doomsday scenario for this entire loop continuing to work. It's something that I'm paying attention to, but honestly, it's so funny to me that stuff like this can get so much attention when you now have Ripple officially listed on the DTCC's website as a clearing partner for the corporation. Here we see Hidden Road specifically listed. Oh man, what did I just do here? Here we see Hidden Road specifically listed right next to Goldman Sachs and HSBC in terms of a clearing corporation for the DTCC. Guys, this is where the real value is. And I wish more people would take the time to really understand how important stuff like this is in comparison to the micro strategies of the world that seem to get all the attention. But the truth is is the real utility of cryptocurrency is in its capability of becoming a settlement network. Settlement and liquidity is the creme de la creme of what cryptocurrency can do. What Michael Sailor is really doing is packaging Bitcoin into some speculative financial engineering concept of a madeup return wrapped in a preferred stock fueled by a common stock. Like that's not exciting.

[00:06:44]And until the market can get past the idea of being excited about Michael Sailor essentially just creating a big so skeptical to say the P word but creating this big financial engineering contraption. Meanwhile, Ripple is using the XRP ledger technology for settlement in which it was Satoshi's vision to be using blockchain technology in crypto for. I think it just goes to show the difference in ethos and the difference in understanding of what the Bitcoin community values and what people in the XRP community value. I think it's the rapid understanding in the XRP community that you need these networks to be used to have value to society and be a productive network in order to gain mass adoption. And what I see being done in the Bitcoin ecosystem with a lot of these treasury companies that really just have no means to actually add net value to the world. That to me is potentially a massive problem that Ripple and XRP are the counterbalance to. It's creating a real institutional product that can gain mass adoption from actually having a significant use case and impact on how the financial system works. And I just think as we get more adoption in crypto, more people are really going to see this. Now, whether or not Micro Strategy unraveling happens or not, guys, I don't think it really matters in the grand scheme of things for XRP. This is potentially one of the more interesting charts that I have seen in a while. What it shows is XRP's monthly RSI in comparison to the XRP price chart. And guys, I've talked about the weekly RSI on my channel quite a bit. There has only been six times in history where the weekly RSI has been as low as it has been. There's only been four times in history where the monthly RSI is as low as it is right now. Guess what? Every single one of these times marked a local bottom on the XRP price chart. I think it could not be more obvious that XRP's price chart is at a bottom. And there are a lot of different metrics you could look at in in addition the XRP to XLM price chart where XLM and XRP as you can see by this chart right here are always perfectly aligned with one another and XLM just got a little bit head start on front running the weak than XRP. Guys, I think there are a lot of signals that the bottom is actually already in for XRP. And these technical indicators are so strong in my opinion that I don't even think it really matters what happens to Micro Strategy in the long term. Personally, I don't think Micro Strategy is going away. I think Michael Sailor is going to be able to keep this going on for quite a bit more time. But when you start to look at the market losing confidence in some of the stuff he's doing with Michael Sailor selling Bitcoin that making the headlines, people becoming fearful of Micro Strategy as a company. These things are net negatives. They challenge the credibility of the cryptocurrency market and it's one of those things that unfortunately reminds me very similar of Terral Luna and FTX. I sincerely hope that Micro Strategy doesn't do that. I think it would be a big hit to the Bitcoin ecosystem. But I guess long story short, and the one positive we can take away from this is it just doesn't seem like XRP can be oversold anymore than it already has been. If we didn't get XRP going lower than where we are now in the Teral Luna and FTX debacle, I don't think even if something happened to Micro Strategy, the XRP price chart would that be that impacted. In fact, it would likely be a scenario where a lot of money might throw come out of Bitcoin and rotate into other assets, specifically like XRP, especially as we fund a new narrative coming out of that micro strategy event that there might be a little bit more to crypto than just the speculative financial vehicles and more so focusing on the actual utility these blockchains bring like XRP being positioned next to central banks, large financial institutions, and really being added to the financial system in a way that these DT chains, these blockchains were meant to do from the first place.

[00:10:49]Just remember, and this is what I think makes a lot of Bitcoiners roll in their grave at Micro Micro Strategy.

[00:10:55]Satoshi in the very early days of creating the Bitcoin network, he made Bitcoin to solve one key issue and that was settlement. That was the movement of money, the transaction, the value movement of money globally.

[00:11:11]What Micro Strategy has done is really just taken all of that and created an investment scheme around it. It's so devoided from what Bitcoin was actually supposed to do. And if you take a look at what Ripple's doing with XRP, it is exactly what Bitcoin was supposed to do.

[00:11:27]It is settlement and movement of money.

[00:11:30]And I just think that the Bitcoin community got so hyperfocused of doing it on a retail scale, they forgot who actually moves the money in the world.

[00:11:38]And that is the large financial institutions. I think the rest of the world is going to start to figure this out. I think all eyes are going to be on Ripple and XRP and let's just see how things continue to go. I believe we're probably weeks to months away from XRP really rebounding following XLM and the market making a significant and obvious recovery. I think we're already seeing a lot of the beginning signs of that. I think the narratives are in the right place. One key thing dropping here or there and I think this market's going to rebound extremely quickly. Thank you so much for coming. I hope you guys enjoyed this update. for now. Pickle out.