When a star player suffers a rare injury that may end their season, teams must balance the risk of re-injury against the need to maintain competitive roster depth, and should avoid over-reliance on any single player; teams should also use run differential as a key metric for evaluating playoff positioning and make strategic trade decisions based on whether they are buyers or sellers at the deadline.
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Could it Be a "Lost Season" for Roman Anthony? Trade Deadline "Pivot"? ||The Greg Hill Show
Added:The Red Sox are back in action, and it's the Blue Jays, and I don't know, maybe you're Are you back on board if they if they are able to sweep Toronto? I >> No, I told you I need six straight.
>> I don't The The athletic reporting is interesting with regard to Roman Anthony and to Craig Breslow. I don't know if anybody's up to speed on that.
>> So, I saw Alex Speier in the Globe talking He was talking to some doctors about Roman Anthony's injury and how it could be up to like 12 weeks out.
>> Yes. Yes.
>> What What What are you talking about?
>> I'm talking about Breslow. The suggestion that Breslow went into this season expecting that Roman Anthony was going to be the bat that this team needed and relied on that and that only, and that is why the organization was okay with not going out and getting your guy, Pete Alonso, or were willing to say farewell to Alex Bregman, or what have you. So, um they felt like they they were certain that Roman Anthony was going to be the guy.
>> I think a lot of people had high expectations for him. I would say that that's not the smartest plan. I get the direction you're going in, but I would have still, you know, went out and got somebody that I knew was productive and has been productive in their career. Like, you know, we brought up Pete Alonso, somebody like that to pair along with Roman Anthony.
But, maybe they thought Wilson Contreras was going to be that, but >> Oh, yeah, I mean, he has been, but it's certainly not enough.
>> Right, right. Well, because Roman Anthony, before the injury, wasn't doing anything.
>> And I do feel like there is a part of me, not in how they communicated it, not in how they dealt with the injury, but if this doctor that spoke with Speier is correct, and I've no reason to doubt him, that he's been an orthopedist for 32 years, and he's never heard of a ring finger isolated CMC ligament tear.
So, it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world if the organization misdiagnosed it or didn't know what it was. If a guy that's been doing this specifically for a generation has never seen it.
>> Sure.
No, it sounds like it's something that is is rare and it doesn't happen a lot and that the recovery >> Well, this guy says it's never happened.
>> That he's Yeah, he's never seen one.
He's never seen one.
>> Right.
>> And so, the recovery is is a lengthy one. And that's >> Shut him down for the year. Everybody okay with that?
>> That's horrible news. I think I guess maybe you have to at some point. Yes, Mego?
>> No, I'm just saying I I said this weeks ago and they're whoa. Like this is a lost season for him. It's a It feels like a totally lost season. What do you You think that he's going to come back and he's going to be swinging better than he was before this injury?
>> No, I I just I mean, I think if he's healthy and he can come back, it's really you want him to get at bats into see where he is. Like, you know what I mean?
Like cuz with the jury was still out on him. The expectations they had high on him, but you know >> But what's the point? Like it's another he's he Let's say he's out another month, right? Which sounds ridiculous, but also based on the diagnosis sounds completely legit. So, then what's the point of >> Just so you can get swings. It's almost like you know >> But then he runs the risk of re-injuring it or >> All right.
>> It's I mean, I don't know.
>> I guess if you want to shut him down till the next spring training and now you're just going to be like, you know, you're going to kind of go into it with the same expectations.
>> And if Curtis if it goes into a lockout like you think it will.
>> Right.
>> When's the next time we see Roman Anthony out there active?
>> He's not going to be young anymore.
Yeah, [laughter] who knows?
>> He could be married by then.
>> No, let's not. But when you want him to like I mean >> [laughter] >> Only if he Only if he is healthy.
>> Does he seem like the marrying type? Not to me. I mean, I really don't.
>> In the future. In the future. He's young. He's having a >> But when you want like >> What does it mean that it's his ring finger? I don't >> Metaphorical.
>> If he is healthy, wouldn't you want him to kind of like, you know, finish on a good note potentially if there is a lockout then he can build off of that.
>> it's going to be a good note. He wasn't He wasn't playing well before the injury. He He will maybe be out for 12 weeks and then he comes back and you think it's boom he's going to like hit the ground running.
>> now if you if you sit him out and he's done, now that lingers until like you said all the way till next off season and spring training. But if there is a lockout then it lingers even further. I I don't know. I just think that if he is healthy and the team stinks, he's just going out there working on whatever ever it is.
>> method. No pressure.
>> Yeah, there's no pressure at all.
There'll be zero pressure and so whatever he does, he can kind of, you know, get through without having to be like the savior of this team.
>> So when does the pivot begin?
It's been Has it been 5 days since Sam Kennedy told us that the pivot might be coming?
>> Yeah, I think >> That was Thursday, right? So and he said 2 weeks. Did Did Did he Did he Did he allow for 2 weeks?
>> He said 15 days.
>> I mean, the pivot the the pivot needs to begin. Like it's it's time to start the pivot.
>> are they? Six games behind their third wild card spot or five games? Yeah, so >> that too. They're like they're double digits under 500. That's all you need to I don't care about the third wild card spot or the >> more important than being double >> the seventh entry draft position which is still available. That's still >> Yeah, but that's >> You know what they care more about than either of those things? And it's the run differential.
So like they believe that that and if you want to get into projected win-loss totals and all that stuff and I really don't, that's the the metric utilized by organizations and analytical departments that figure it out. So right now there are 1 2 3 4 5 7, 8 teams in the American League with a worse run differential than the Boston Red Sox. So, they view that as the team is better than their record has suggested. I don't believe it. I don't but so they're to me like they're playing the Blue Jays, right?
>> Yeah.
>> They win the series at home. That's consecutive series wins at Fenway Park, first time all season, and they will likely have a positive run differential entering the weekend.
>> Right. But, it's still not enough though. They need a go >> But, they're not going to sell now cuz there's nothing to sell. Like there's no >> to delude themselves into being like, "Oh, look, look, look." as use one stat as Curtis is saying that matters to them instead like, "Look at us."
>> and until they can prove I think I believe and Tracy said it before and I think even talking to Sam Kennedy, until they can show that they can rip off seven in a row and really put themselves in a position where they're like a legitimate arms reach away from one of them wild card spots, then you're basically all you're doing is prolonging it.
>> Right, but we're saying that we're not say or at least I'm not saying let me speak for me. I don't think they're going to buy today.
>> No, no, no.
>> But, I also don't think they're going to sell today.
>> No, no, I don't think they're going to sell today, but I think they're going to sell come trade deadline.
>> Could they sell Aroldis Chapman and keep everybody else?
>> Uh >> And kind of like ride the fence a little bit that >> If you're going to sell Chapman, you have to sell Gray.
>> Yeah.
I think if you're going to Yeah, if you're going to sell in Chapman, you're probably going to sell to Curtis's point Sonny Gray and you're probably going to sell Duran.
>> Right.
>> So, those are the three guys I would definitely see them selling.
>> Keep Please, please, please keep Will Fleming.
>> Fleming, yeah.
>> And Middlebrooks.
>> Yeah.
Uh I mean, I would you hang on you have 2 years left with Contreras? Wouldn't you hang on to him the way he's played?
>> I would.
>> Yeah.
>> I mean, he might be one of the only guys that you get something significant back for if you're looking at like really rebuilding or not even rebuilding but just having something for the future. So >> they probably would look at seriously dealing it dealing it with their sellers.
>> But if you're going to look at look at it positionally, you have no idea what Tristan Casas is going to be or what he's going to do or where where where he's going to be or so I would hang on to Wilson Contreras.
He's been excellent.
>> problem is you just brought up or maybe Megill brought it up. What if there is a lockout? So now when Contreras comes back it's the >> Well wait, that's going to be the same with every single player in the entire league.
>> Right, but he's only he's only on what?
A two or a three-year deal?
>> But but I don't think you can do business expecting that there is or isn't going to be a lockout because >> Well, don't you have to?
Don't you have to go into it knowing like >> Well then if it then if you were going to assume that there's going to be a lockout then everybody anybody who is not anywhere near being in it would just sell every single thing that they have like every entire thing that they have.
>> what I expect. I I expect the teams that are going to go for it this year are really going to be big big buyers in the >> Okay, and then if there isn't a strike or a lockout you're absolutely screwed.
So >> But what I guess in the world of baseball >> Well, we're kind of screwed right now.
>> in the world of baseball, yes. Do you Do you What do you think the front office people the owners the owners say the percentage of a lockout is?
>> Yes, I have no idea what they do. I I would How would I know?
>> No, I'm not I'm not saying if you have an idea but it percentage-wise you'd go there's a 70% chance we're probably going to have a lockout.
>> I have >> [laughter] >> I have no idea.
>> Yeah, that's on that.
>> I'm not privy to the information.
>> But if you're That seems low. I I would say a 99.9% and I would Wilson Contreras is on pace for 38 home runs this year.
>> Yeah.
>> What was the last time the Red Sox had a player that hit 38 home runs?
>> I think it was Devers maybe hit 35.
>> Yeah.
>> Maybe yeah, I mean but I don't know if anybody's ever hit like the last guy to hit 40 must have been maybe or >> Yeah, I don't know who yeah, who would >> Hang on to the man. Hang on to him. All right. Well, anyway, Red Sox back at it with the Blue Jays. You can talk about that this morning. It looks like Brendan Soursby will not be playing for Texas Tech. Shame you addressing that in your lead is it a >> I sure am this morning, Greg. And the head coach of Texas Tech is also going to be the father from Ipswich cuz they both made asses of themselves for no reason.
>> Just the head coach? I think that the entire Texas Tech school made a bunch of asses.
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