Jobs, Energy, and Equity Markets All Point to Resilient US Economy: Economic Analyst

Added: 2026-05-09

[00:00:00]And Wall Street cheered the better than expected jobs report as well as the prospects of a peace deal between the US and Iran. And joining us now to discuss the jobs report is Joseph Trevisani.

[00:00:11]He's economic and currency analyst over at FXStreet. Joseph, thanks for joining this evening. I want to get your initial reaction to the jobs report.

[00:00:19]Well, the job numbers are good. They're better than expected. They were better than expected last month. These are the best two-month run in job numbers we've had since 2024.

[00:00:28]Um manufacturing jobs were good in the first quarter. It was the first positive quarter for manufacturing jobs since 2023. So, when you look at those numbers, they're good numbers and I'm sure the administration will be happy with them.

[00:00:41]Yeah, indeed. The numbers are great.

[00:00:42]They significantly beat forecasts. What do you owe that to?

[00:00:48]Well, I think part of it is that the economy is actually doing reasonably well. It really has not fallen off. You haven't seen any serious manufacturing or economic problems from the higher gas prices and higher oil prices. Although they've been running now only about 2 and 1/2 months. So, right now you are looking at what is still a pretty solid economy.

[00:01:11]And you mentioned the gas prices from the Iran war not slowing down the economy, showing resilience.

[00:01:17]What's happening with the markets as well as that relates to um you know, obviously it's a wartime. The markets are are doing well. Um are these things all interrelated?

[00:01:28]Well, you know, the markets, especially the equities, are telling you that yes, we're concerned. Um but not very. And we expect that once the conflict in Iran or the conflict with Iran is settled or is reduced in its volume and oil prices come back down and the Gulf of Hormuz is open and we resume a more normal uh global trade uh system, whether or not the Iranian government and the mullahs government there actually is falls or replaced, it's telling you that the economy and the world economy is going to get a lot better. That's why the equities are sitting either at or very near their all-time highs. They are not pricing in a long period of much higher energy costs. It would uh seem that the equities are just waiting for some sort of settlement in the war, one that is a little more permanent than what we've seen so far, before you get another move to the upside.

[00:02:31]And and I want to pivot from that and see how in your view that affects the job creation market. But we see the United Arab Emirates signaling leaving OPEC as well as that they're they're in deep discussions with the US on a currency swap. How does all that factor into the US economy, our dollar, as well as job creation?

[00:02:54]As far as the you know, there's been over the over many years there's been lots of discussion and some plans from other countries, especially oil exporters, uh primarily Russia, and oil importers like China, to try to move the oil um economy of the globe off away from the dollars, and it has never succeeded.

[00:03:15]And I don't think it's going to succeed now. And what the what the UAE is telling you is they don't believe that it's going to succeed either. And it's really not much of a threat. In fact, I would say it is a declining threat and largely one of propaganda rather than actual financial exchanges changing hands. So, for all of those reasons, the US is in a very good place as far as the global and its own energy economy. We are now the world's largest exporter of energy. This is an astonishing development if you look back over US and global energy history. So, for all of those reasons, the US is going and I think the US economy is going to benefit tremendously from this going forward. And we talk about energy as such a big part and driver of the economy with all of these AI data centers coming on. These companies that are engaged in that are going to even be building their own energy facilities, not relying on the existing grid. Do all of these things have sort of a multiplier effect when it comes to the economy and job creation?

[00:04:23]I think they definitely do. I mean, you have the equities have moved very quickly and very very strongly on the growth in AI. And part of that is, you know, the equities are being driven by the seven magnificent stocks and the the ones that that the the companies that have direct connection to AI development, AI production.

[00:04:46]But beyond that, all of the >> [clears throat] >> secondary effects that you noted, if nothing more than simply energy and electricity that is required, this will be this will be fueled by US energy. It will be built and fueled by US energy. And I think that you're going to see a degree of return for US manufacturing jobs, which is course has been one of the Trump administration's major points in its tariff and other policies. You had as I said earlier, you had the the first expansion of manufacturing jobs in the first quarter.

[00:05:22]It wasn't much, but it was something in since 2023. So, there are things happening in the US economy to support and to grow what is a proving to be a real change, I think, in how the economy generates both jobs and production.

[00:05:44]Yeah, and you mentioned that onshoring and that manufacturing boom, which will first the plants will have to be constructed or refurbished and then those jobs will will come on after those construction jobs transition.

[00:05:57]But but when the tariffs were initially announced, opponents of it said that it would raise the prices and hurt job creation.

[00:06:06]We saw today in a two-to-one decision that the Trump administration lost another court case about the tariffs, but they're saying that they have other instruments that they can use. How has the tariff policy supported this, Joseph? Oh, and speaking of which, I believe we have Trump live.

[00:06:23]Let's go to Trump and then we'll we'll come back and and discuss tariffs.