Don't Buy Physical Silver for the Short Term

追加: 2026-05-06

[00:00:00]One of the things I really want to stress to people who are thinking of investing in physical silver is that physical silver is not for the short term. It's not for speculation. If you want to speculate in silver, don't use physical, use some sort of an equity, whether we're talking about an ETF or a mining share. If you've got deep pockets and you just have money to lose and you want to do uh futures, go ahead and do that, but as far as physical silver goes, physical silver is probably the very worst type of silver that you can have for speculation. And I know that comes as a surprise to a lot of people because you get all these people on on the internet, people who sell silver for a living, but who also genuinely believe in the silver. They're not I don't think trying to take advantage of people, but when they're pushing physical silver as something that you can make a quick buck on, that's probably the wrong idea. And most of the people, I will say this, who sell silver are not advertising it as something that you're going to be making a quick dollar on to flip. They're talking typically about holding it long-term, and in my uh point of view, that's certainly the way to look at it.

[00:01:18]Well, that's what we're going to be looking at today. My name's Rick Bloodworth. This is the Common Sense Christian Financial Channel. It is Tuesday, April the 28th of 2026. We're about 2 days away from the May expiration day for the May uh silver contract on the COMEX, and we'll talk about that in just a moment. But before we do that, I want to look and see where the market has been today because we have had some movement that may prove to be significant. And so, let's go ahead and look at it. We opened at $75.38.

[00:01:53]We've been as high as $76.28, but we have dropped as low as $71.92.

[00:02:02]And if you've been following this channel for a while, you know we've been a in a range for several weeks now, 2 weeks, between $74 and $81.

[00:02:12]And today is the first time we've dropped significantly below that mark. Whether we'll close below the 7445 uh support that we've been looking at or not, we'll just have to wait. Right now, it's about 1:00 Central Standard Time.

[00:02:28]So, we're about 3 hours before the close of the COMEX futures. And so, something to keep an eye on. By the time you watch this video, you'll know whether we closed below the 7445.

[00:02:40]And remember, everybody's got a different uh chart that they really like to emphasize. Everybody's got a different uh chart that uh they rely on.

[00:02:49]This particular chart is just one that I use. It's It's my own chart. It's not one that I get off of uh looking at the uh uh different uh websites and the different charts that they use. I'm a whole lot more simple than that. I look for any kind of a range that we've been in for a couple of weeks, and I try and look at the high and the low part of that range, and when we break out of it, I know to keep my eye on it. And if we if we fall down below that, I also know to keep my eye on it. Today, we are falling down below this support line that we've had for a couple of weeks.

[00:03:26]Whether it will hold, whether it will bounce back, is another thing, but as far as the support and and the resistance lines, I like to see it either go above it for a couple of days with good volume or drop below it for a couple of days with good volume.

[00:03:44]Today is a fairly light volume day, and so this is not exactly a strong signal that we're about to enter into a a new phase of the correction or even a bear market, but it's something to keep our eye on because if it continues uh to to trade below this line, well, the next level of support is probably $70 and then $62 and then maybe as low as 55 before it breaks down completely. I'm not looking for that to happen, but as I've mentioned before, I have a plan uh to sell on the way up and to buy on the way down. I have some very specific buy and sell points at that. And so, I'm more interested in where it's at today, and I'll react to that based upon a predetermined plan. And so, that's something when we're talking about physical silver, I really think it's important for you to set your own predetermined plan and your own philosophy of investing on this. I wouldn't go by by mine or the next persuasive person you see on the internet. I would just see what works for you and your personal set of circumstances. So, anyway, that's where we're at today. As I say, keep an eye on this because it could turn out to be something significant, and we could continue to break down. If we do, then obviously we're starting to look at a new leg down at least temporarily. So, that's where we're at today. There's a couple of things that are going on. In 2 days, on Thursday, we'll have the first notice of delivery for the May contract.

[00:05:19]Right now, the open interest has fallen to 17,676 contracts. And so, that represents a total of 85 million ounces. There are 76 million ounces in the registered category alone, plus another 239 million ounces in the eligible category when we talk about the COMEX vaults. And so, there looks like there's plenty of silver uh to handle this particular delivery month, and it does not look like there's going to be any problems with that. Certainly not a default, but it doesn't look like there's going to be any uh paper settlements or anything like that. So, uh yesterday, uh we dropped a total of 9,000 contracts on the May delivery, which represented 45 million ounces. And that really did put us into a range where we're really not going to have to worry about uh the COMEX uh having any sorts of of delivery issues this particular month. So, uh that's where we're at on the delivery.

[00:06:22]Uh there's something else that you might want to keep an eye on. Shanghai, uh the prices there have been consistently going for over $10 an ounce more than the Western markets, than the London market, the LBMA, and the New York market, the COMEX. And so, it's been trading about $10 an ounce plus in Shanghai compared to these two markets.

[00:06:47]And then in recent days, yesterday, it was trading at $9 and some change over uh the Western markets, and today $8 and some change over the Western markets.

[00:06:58]And this is something to keep in in mind. If the If the Shanghai prices start to drop down to where the Western markets are, you could be looking at at least a temporary lack of support on on the uh bottom side. But if the New York and the London prices start rising to meet the Shanghai market, well, then you might be looking at the next leg up in the bull market. Right now, we've dropped a a dollar 2 days in a row as far as the premium difference on that, the spread starting to close, and it's closing with Shanghai dropping uh towards the Western markets. I don't know that it's that significant right now, but if it continues to go in that direction, it sure enough could be significant. So, again, just something now you've you've got another bit of information uh to add to your total information as far as any plans that you might be making. Uh and then uh finally, right now, I just want to make a mention of where some of the premium spreads are for the buy-sell price on the best coin dealers I've seen in America. And right now, the best coin dealer I've seen in America is offering to buy 90% silver at $9 below spot. I've seen uh some that are as much as $22 below spot. So, $9 below spot is about the best buyback you're going to see for 90% on a nationally advertised basis.

[00:08:30]This will give you a point of comparison with your own local coin shop if you're thinking of selling. And then, the lowest buy point I've seen for 90% is about $6 below spot price. And so, right now, uh the best uh spread I've seen is a dealer buying at 46 times face for 90% and selling it at 48 times face for the same 90%. So, about a 4% uh spread. That's not bad at all. And then on the 999 fine silver, I've the best uh prices I've seen, same dealer, by the way, guy out of Florida, but uh they're selling their their uh 999 fine silver at spot, and they'll buy it from you at $4 under spot. So, about a 5% spread on that. And then as far as eagles, they'll buy them from you at spot, and they'll sell them to you at $3 over spot.

[00:09:29]Uh and so, about a 4% spread on that.

[00:09:32]And so, uh this will give you an idea if you're thinking of buying or selling right now, especially if you're going to a local dealer, this will give you some points of comparison. And I think it's always good to go around and comparison shop a little bit, especially if you're going to make a big purchase or a big sale.

[00:09:50]It's important to be aware of these things. One last thing, as far as these prices go, if you don't live in Florida and you buy from this particular shop, you're going to have a $3,000 order. And so, you're going to have to to buy quite a bit of silver in order to get that good price. And then if you sell to them, they cannot lock it in until the silver actually arrives and they have checked it out in their shop.

[00:10:18]And so, you've got to wait for the silver to be for you to package it up and send it in for it to actually get into their shop before you can lock the price in. And as you know, prices in silver can be very volatile. And so, that can be problematic on that side as well. But again, this is what we're looking at right now and this will give you some points of comparison as well as some information that you can use to determine if you want to buy or sell from any particular dealer or or any particular bullion company. So anyway, that's that's what we have on that. Now, I want to get back to this idea that we started with. And that is the idea that when it comes to investing in silver, there are several avenues that you can go. There's there's several different instruments you can use. The first and the one that we are probably most familiar with in this community is the physical silver. And typically typically when we talk about physical silver, we're looking at either constitutional silver, that's pre 1965 US coinage, typically in the form of half dollars, quarters, and dimes. But it could also be pre '36 silver dollars when we talk about 90% constitutional silver. But again, when you're looking at at that, that is one form that a lot of people like to hold their silver in. And especially those who are thinking about bartering in one way or another. There's a lot of farmers markets around the country that where people literally do pay for their produce in 90% silver. And so, it's already being used as barter. It is legal tender and I think about 20 of the states in the US. And so, there's no problems with doing something like that.

[00:12:12]But again, this is this is the the 90% category. We also have the 999 fine silver. And that's typically anything from what you see in the 1 oz rounds such as a buffalo round or or another generic 1 oz round of silver. You've also got silver bars anywhere from an ounce bar to a 5 oz bar, 10 oz bar, kilo bar, 50 oz bar, and 100 oz bars are the most typical sizes when we talk about silver bars. And a lot of people stack their silver in those particular bars. And then the other form that is very popular and right now has the closest uh uh buyback on it from from most of the dealers around the nation are US silver eagles. And those are minted by the US mint. They have a face value right on it, a legal tender face value of $1.

[00:13:13]Nobody in their right mind would exchange it for $1. But again, it's legal tender on that. And so, US silver eagles are very popular. You can put them in various retirement accounts. You need to talk to your accountant about that in order to set something like that up. But that's one of the reasons they're so popular. And then there's other sovereignties that put out their own silver. Canada has a 1 oz maple leaf.

[00:13:40]Austria has a 1 oz Philharmonic.

[00:13:43]Australia has 1 oz kangaroos and koalas and just ones like that. I think Britain has the Britannia that now has a picture of King Charles on it in in the 1 oz form. And so, that's the physical form of silver. And the physical form of silver I believe is best used for savings. You have long-term savings in mind and you have a different perspective on why you're going to be saving in that as you go from person to person. Some people just like the idea of saving in something that is not as quite as readily exchangeable for dollars and they're forced to hang on to it. It's inconvenient to mail off your silver or to drive down to your coin dealer for example. And so, but the other the other reason for that is it's something you can hold in your hand. If there's a big economic interruption, if there's a problem with the internet and your banking system goes down or your Bitcoin goes down or even your brokerage firms go down for a little bit, you've got a something physical in hand that you can use. And you get to a certain point, it's probably not a bad idea to start storing at least part of it in a trusted vault somewhere and you need to do your homework on that. But that way you don't have to worry about somebody breaking in and and and stealing your your life savings from you. And so, anyway, that's the physical form. And again, physical is typically for long-term savings.

[00:15:16]You've got retirement plans. You want to build your dream home in 30 years and you want to put it in something that's not going to depreciate like fiat currency does.

[00:15:26]Um It's just as many different people I suppose as you have different reasons for saving in it. But that's the savings part of it. There's also an insurance part of it, an economic insurance part or let's call it a wealth insurance part if you want to. Maybe you have a certain amount of money and you have it invested in stock market and real estate and you've got cash in the bank and you've just got all sorts of things, maybe even bonds or or T-bills. But you want a certain amount of that as a wealth insurance. And again, something that you can hold on to that you don't have to worry about technical glitches taking away the value of that silver. And so, you hang on to it for those insurance purposes. There's also the worldwide uncertainty factor in the insurance perspective of it. We just look at the the unsettled world in which we live, the various skirmishes and outbreaks and outright wars that we have going on right now.

[00:16:33]Things can happen. And so, it's nice to have a little bit of physical silver in hand for a situation like that. At least perhaps you can survive whatever that situation is. There's economic collapses that happen probably anywhere from every 60 to 80 years. It's been a while since America's experienced a full-blown economic collapse, hasn't it? It was 1929 really through the early 1940s. And so, it has been a full 85 years since we've experienced something like that in America. And again, it's nice to have some physical metal in hand, whether we're talking about gold or silver for such situations. And so, these are the reasons that I believe you really should be motivated to purchase precious metals if you are motivated to do so. It's not for everybody. I have to caution you on that. But you do not buy physical silver, you should never buy physical silver with money that you're going to need quickly. Whether we're talking about in the next month or the next few months or even in the next year. If you need to have this money in hand for something, I would stay away from physical silver investments with that portion of your money because it's just too risky. Markets can and do experience bear markets. And it could go way down below what you purchased it for or we could even be in a situation like we are right now where the glut on the retail side is such that dealers are paying you much less than the spot value of silver.

[00:18:17]And so, the when we talk about physical silver, it really is best used for long-term savings and for insurance with whatever reason that you have behind that. Now, let's say you do want to speculate in silver. You like the price action on it. You like the fact that it is volatile. Quite frankly, that's one of the things that first drew my attention to silver was the very volatility of it. It would go way down, true, but it could also go way up. There are some people who are a little bit more risk willing. And so, they're willing to go ahead and and risk big sums of money in the futures market. And a futures contract right now is going to cost you somewhere between I can't remember what they lowered it to. It had been in the 50s.

[00:19:08]But I think it may be as low as $45,000 a contract right now for a 5,000 oz contract. And so, if you want to do that and and you're familiar enough with the market, go ahead. I did futures trading for probably about 20 years. But I did it when silver was around the $5 mark. I was never worried that I could lose more than $5 an ounce on my entire investment. And so, I had a lot more stability when I was investing in futures. I wouldn't invest in futures now. For one thing, it would put my retirement at risk. And for another thing, having followed the silver market now for about 45 or 46 years, I can tell you that it's too dangerous to be playing the markets on the future side.

[00:19:56]That's for the big boys. That's also for the hedgers, the silver mines, and those who are the silver users on the big scale. But again, if that's what you want to do, there is that area of the market, a little safer portion of the market, or a lot safer portion of the market, is the options market where you buy a put, which is essentially saying, "I think the market's going to go down.

[00:20:21]I'm going to buy Let's say silver right now is at $73. Let's say you want to buy a silver put for July at a $70 strike price." And so, you say, "I think it's going to drop down. I think it's going to go to 70 or below." And so, you buy a put in anticipation of the market going down. And the most you can lose by buying a put is the amount of money that you you paid for the option to buy that 5,000 oz. And the other side is the call, where you think the market's going up, and so you buy a call that gives you the right to purchase 5,000 oz of silver at a certain price, and you can do that uh certainly. Same example, silver $73 today, let's say you want to buy an $80 call for the July contract. And so, you put your your money down for that, and until the July contract expires, you have the option to exercise that option, or just sell it outright for the profit, much easier way to do that. But again, that's a that's a certainly a cheaper way to take advantage of the risk that's involved with that, but also the reward.

[00:21:38]And then there are people who buy or excuse me, who sell puts and calls, and that's essentially the same thing as is selling a contract or buying a contract.

[00:21:48]It's very risky, and you need to know what you're doing on that. I don't recommend selling puts or calls. If you are familiar with the market and and are comfortable with it, go ahead and and do what you want. And then the other is the equities. Uh well, let me make mention of one more thing. The COMEX now has a contract for a 100-oz of silver. And so, you cannot exchange it for physical, but you can take the You can get the exposure to 100 oz of silver by buying that contract at whatever price that contract is at. And you're going to have a maximum exposure on that 100 oz if you buy it today of $7,300.

[00:22:32]That's the most you can lose. And so, there's also that on the futures market.

[00:22:36]But the other is the equities, and I I'll include the ETFs, the exchange-traded funds in this, because you can buy and sell them from your broker, and and you can just buy these exchange-traded funds, gold, silver, whatever you want to do. I think the iShares Trust is the biggest silver ETF.

[00:22:57]Sprott has a silver ETF as well, called PSLV. They also have PHYS.

[00:23:03]It represents their gold ETF. And then the other are just mining stocks, things like that, First Majestic, on and on, and you can invest in that. That will allow you to take price exposure, but at a fixed price. So anyway, if you want to speculate in silver, I would go with the with the mining stocks and the exchange-traded funds. If you want to invest in silver for the long term, I would go with physical silver. But that's just me. That will give you an idea as far as some of the options that are available to you right now. Well, that's the video for today. Let me know what you think about it in the comments.

[00:23:41]The comment section has had a lot of intelligent people with a lot of excellent observations within that. If you have some time, I would spend some time reading some of those comments. I think you'll be smarter for having done so. But thank you for doing that. Thanks for watching today. I hope we'll see you again next time. God bless.