BTC Crashing, Saylor Sold… IS IT OVER? Is Your Portfolio About To Be Destroyed?

本站添加: 2026-06-03

[00:00:04]All righty.

[00:00:09]If we can fix this webcam a little bit.

[00:00:14]Don't know if that's made it better or worse.

[00:00:18]Hello everyone. Welcome to the live stream.

[00:00:24]Everyone hear me? Okay, everyone can confirm.

[00:00:28]Volume is good. I'm just double checking my webcam.

[00:00:32]Oh, seems a bit low. My make it a little higher.

[00:00:41]Oh, I need to mute myself. You guys can probably hear a bit of an echo.

[00:00:47]Can all hear me? Okay. Bit louder. Okay.

[00:00:52]Bit louder.

[00:00:54]How about now? Oh, I know what's happening. Sorry.

[00:01:06]Still not good sound quality.

[00:01:13]All righty. Thanks, Ron. Thanks, Mike.

[00:01:15]Good day, Douglas.

[00:01:17]Good day, everyone.

[00:01:19]Jass, Nate, how we going?

[00:01:27]We'll just let a a few more join and then we'll get started. Um I thought today Goodday Peter, how you going? Um I thought today would be good to just kind of recap, I guess, the macro side of things. It's not going to be too dissimilar, I guess, from what we've been doing these last few weeks on these live streams, which is looking at the macro side of things first. What's happening with the DXY? what's happening with oil, what's happening with stocks, which for the most part, if you're kind of following those markets and you're invested in the stock market, then you'd be having a a jolly old time. Um, of course, over in crypto, there's a large difference in what's kind of occurring.

[00:02:10]Go Bailey. um what's kind of occurring um within the liquidity cycle I guess and intercorrelation between Bitcoin and other markets the risk on risk off and really having an understanding of why stocks are going up so much regardless that it is quite a riskoff situation um and then going from there and mapping out different BTC levels. I'll go back over the low time frame price action of last night to help people kind of understand what happened from a technical perspective. Um and then we can talk some other altcoins. We can look at ETH. Um I know my members were able to receive um you know Ethereum analysis last Friday on a lot of that or towards the end I looked at Ethereum dominance and FBTC as a look of seeing whether ETH can finally decide to lift anciently from its pretty poor price action to help out Tom Lee and a few of us holders. Um but looking at whether there's an eerie kind of striking levels coming into play on those charts that may indicate that we may have a little bit of an alt season sometime soon. Um, and that could be led by Ethereum or by other coins. But, you know, I guess if you've been watching any of these live streams the last few weeks, I think there's pretty much only two coins that I've been showing and showing you guys market structure analysis on, which is Hyperlquid and Ze. Um, so, you know, holders of those coins, which you know, the crypto academy and Imperial Wealth are at lower valuations, particularly on Hyperlquid. you know, some of this crash or I guess some of the emotional turmoil and psychology behind it has been kind of mitigated by the fact that we've been parked in the right altcoins with the right catalysts, the right narratives, all of which I've gone over on these live streams that I can go back over again. Um, but without further ado, I will quickly just get something up. Um, we'll go over the DXY. Now, kind of what's being happening with the DXY is it's been really consolidating these last few weeks. For those that quickly want to know why we look at the DXY, for the most part, across many cycles of assets, this has an inverse correlation to commodities to uh to sorry to stock market, to Bitcoin in particular. Um, and for the most part, it does play out.

[00:04:16]And I mean, look, if what's happened to Bitcoin since the start of May, Bitcoin has gone down. What's happened to the DXY? It's gone up, right? So um you can paint this really clear picture and use different charts to obviously get a greater understanding of what's occurring with Bitcoin. Um but it is going to be a big week. Um it's a data field week where we're getting a lot of things. But what's kind of happening with the DXY is that you know it's chopping because it has two different catalysts that are trying to make it go down and then make it go up. So it's kind of consolidating at resistance. And the reason for that is the reason it should be going down is because oil has been largely coming down with a ceasefire in place. Obviously that's not being held to account. Um and then more importantly um peace talks you know and as a result which I'll show on oil charts in a sec you'll see those have lowered heaps but as a result the DXY has not. Um obviously the correlation between this is that higher oil costs creates higher energy prices which in turn creates more inflationary pressures more restrictive monetary policy which is a driver for the USD to go up. But at the same time that this has been happening um and the reason that it's consolidating or that it hasn't been going down sorry is that inflation has come in very poorly. So we had PC come in at 3.8%.

[00:05:28]Um rate cuts came off the table. Walsh has come in which is you know most people are viewing as quite a bearish or hawkish Fed governor or Fed chair I should say. Um and really the market is kind of pricing in the Fed to hold interest rates I guess to the end of the year. um putting about a 46% chance I believe now of a rate hike in December.

[00:05:47]So a full hike priced by early 27. Um so higher for longer with raising yields um is exactly the backdrop that's kind of draining liquidity out of Bitcoin and risk assets. Um and it's heading into here. Um and I think I read just before, you know, we've got the long most long side um DXY bets um in some time currently. So there's a lot of people getting long on the DXY as a result of this. Um but in any case, we've got a huge data field week. Um so I expect you know hopefully a larger move to happen on this based on that. Um and I will just show you quickly why um what's been happening here. So as I kind of tell my students um particularly in my advanced trading course where I actually told them that this was a really key area to long as a hedge against crypto or against risk assets on oil is that perfectly rejected from high time frame resistance, right? Which is if you pull a fib from here down to this low from this high to this low. I'll quickly draw it so you guys understand what I'm talking about. Oops. I got my extensions on.

[00:06:51]You get the upside golden pocket. If you draw your volume profile, you get a value area high that should come slightly lower and a pock and a value area low. And as a result, you know, oil auctioned up very high off the back of renewed hostility so on and so forth. then rejected high time frame resistance. So, as it made this move down, I expected obviously the DXY to, but that explains why it hasn't is because of the backdrop of inflationary data, uh rate hikes coming in, being priced in, all rate cuts off the table, which most didn't expect for this year because they obviously did not um they did not uh obviously expect, you know, rate hikes to come in and want rate cuts to come in. But you're seeing this huge rise from support on oil, which is a bit of risk off. So once again, this is a key metric for Bitcoin being risk off. Just another additive as to why. Um and then this is on the crude chart. If we move to Brent, you know, it's literally the exact same. So we rejected from high time frame resistance, which was, you know, this SR flip here, value area high, auctioned right into it, lost the pock, we came down, we traded right into the value area low, tapping into a key high time frame support, and since we've bounced. So, you know, once again, it begs the question here of, you know, talking about um technical analysis a lot with you guys that, you know, more often than not, you don't really need to watch the news. If you watch the kind of, and I explained this to members the other day, this cycle of the Iran war, this playbook that Trump kind of goes by where he says all of this crap into the US media, uh, you know, this gets um this is usually a lot of [ __ ] about a deal being signed, great this, great that, so on and so forth. usually someone from the Iranian um military or from the regime come out and say it's absolutely [ __ ] then everything retracts and blah blah blah blah blah um but really you can just look to these charts it's all you need to understand that you know we reject here so you expected it would then auction down to the bottom of the range this is a range right you just simply range trade it and understand what's going to happen because price action is the ultimate efficiency right um then of course when it came down into here I beg the question to my members or particularly in my advanced trading course that, you know, it's hitting higher time frame support. You can almost predict that a ceasefire and a peace deal is not going to be signed before you even get the news about it. And look what's happened, right? And we just had continued hostilities even into today, continued [ __ ] from Trump, so on and so forth.

[00:09:18]Um, so yeah, really that's the DXY and the oil picture for those that wanted to kind of get an explanation as to why the DXY is consolidating. But oil was both heading down and heading upwards. um you know we are seeing a bit of a bid now in the DXY you know it's getting kind of that double bid now um so we probably can expect to hit a resistance or at least climb up into this resistance if you know there is increased inflationary pressure this week and I think there's jobs data as well which could paint a pretty bleak picture for that as well for monetary policy and then um yeah if the hostilities and a ceasefire and peace isn't signed for um the war then we get a large move on DXY and as a result the riskoff move continues in Bitcoin um which we'll look at in a second. Um so yeah, really that's the I guess does anyone have any questions around the DXY oil the war inflation or anything before I move on to stocks, Bitcoin and alts? I just want to give a quick macro backdrop the first couple of minutes of this live stream um before uh we moved on to other things.

[00:10:28]Just wait a little bit.

[00:10:32]Whilst I'm doing that, Doesn't seem like much too many questions. That's all right. I'll probably explain it a million times. So, most of the people that are here are members. Um, when we move to stock market quickly, I do envision that the stock markets do top this year. I've kind of made that point in these live streams. Um and obviously in uh in a lot of my update and to members what I envisioned was a topping at about 7500 which hasn't happened. Um that's okay. Fifth wave can extend. I just want to double check that this to this 75 which may not actually be Yeah. Yeah. Okay. So really from the bottom um what I'm kind of looking at here is a fifth wave up into the 7800 to about 8,000 area um on the stock market.

[00:11:38]And that actually which I'll explain in the Bitcoin analysis makes it a bit tougher to map out a Bitcoin bottom for this year because obviously Bitcoin can turn the tables here and rally. But if we get a stock market crash or a stock market top in coming months due to the midterms, due to XYZ with inflation, due to the space X IPO being the top to AI companies finally seeing a bit of a pullback, um something bad happens, whatever it is, a black swan that um I would expect a first major correction on the stock market and that makes things a lot harder on Bitcoin. But before we do that, what's actually happening with stocks and let me explain how historic this run is. So, the S&P, if we go to the weekly chart, just logged its 10th green week in a row. So, 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 and we're into our 11th, right? Um, in doing this, it's added about 11.7 to 12 trillion. Um, it's up roughly, you know, 20% from this low. Um, it's close above 60 76 or 7,600 for the first time ever. But what you need to understand is that this is dangerously narrow. And what's happening is, you know, information technology now accounts for about 37% of this entire market. Um, which is actually above the com peak, funnily enough. Um, if we go back and see what happened at the.com peak, um, you'll see it here, right? The S&P 500, the com peak crashed 50%. Um, and it was in kind of better conditions than what this is now in terms of that aspect and that context, right? So, let's get that out of that out of the way first. Then, if you strip out the MAG 7, which includes stocks like um Tesla, Nvidia, um all of these, you know, um companies that are the richest companies on earth, particularly um you know, Nvidia, the S&P net margins dropped from about 15% to 8%. Um, which is near the weakest since 2020. So, co and big tech is essentially carrying everything in these markets, you know, in the NASDAQ as well. Um, you know, what does fuel this?

[00:13:38]as I've said um you know throughout market updates to my members and obviously on these live streams is that it's the fuel in this is the AI capeex boom right so hyperscalers have lifted spending guys past 800 billion this year and that's flying straight into earnings which are tipped to grow over 20% right so it's not just the US like you can look to other markets like Korea Japan you know I think Korea's up 100% someone may correct me um in this year alone just on the AI chip surge um you look to countries again that are involved in this type of tech like Taiwan. I believe Taiwan just hit a record. So, you know, this isn't just a just a US bid, right, on these AI capex booms and on this market. What you're experiencing in the stock market is global. Um, certainly not for us Australians on the ASX.

[00:14:23]Oh, wow. Isn't that something? Um, not quite sure what happened with the ASX, but it's down even more. So, maybe someone can tell me in the comments because I literally don't follow the Australian stock market. Um but it's a global AI bid and I guess you know the issue here is that the real economy is weakening underneath the index. You know I think real disposable income fell 1.1% yearon year. Consumer confidence it's at its lowest um or its weakest I should say since 2022 and I believe Canada just slipped into recession. So um you know the market is melting up whilst consumer quietly cracks. You know that's the tension to kind of watch here. And then when something does crack in this market like I mean whilst it's hard to believe it is going to stop or it is going to stall and maybe maybe it doesn't and maybe I'm wrong um but you know just in my understanding through history through the charts um through kind of understanding macroeconomically of of where we sit you know it's a AI is like a a powerful magnet to pull capital into a narrow slice of equities and shrug off the wall. I guess that's what's happening with crypto, right, and Bitcoin is that, you know, with no equivalent catalyst like an AI capeex boom, you know, we're left here with ETF outflows, the oil driven risk off and higher longer rate backdrop which isn't affecting this market and can really explain to you, you know. Yeah, good good point, Will. Great point. Not Elbow got into power. Elbow released his budget. That's the ASX result. That's actually a good point. What I should have thought of. Um but I guess that's the easiest way for you to understand as someone that is sitting there frustrated um or what's that fundamental understanding is that um and also why you know there's a real thesis and narrative to have in investing in AI and crypto if it ever does something is because you'll get this result right with all this this AI capex boom is that you know this is why stocks are up only.

[00:16:08]It's not that every single stock in the S&P 500 is going up. Most of them are going down. It's just that these huge AI companies, Nvidia, Google, Microsoft, Meta, you name it, that are all tied into the AI industry um and into this type of yeah into that type of industry.

[00:16:25]That is the thing that's dragging these markets up. And unfortunately, Bitcoin doesn't have such a powerful catalyst right now. We've got the Clarity Act obviously in the backdrop, which isn't really going to plan. Um but really, yeah, that explains why you're seeing Bitcoin slide. And really the markets, financial markets are just a a just barometer of liquidity, right? And I always say that about Bitcoin. People are probably tired of me saying it, but um the liquidity has no when you think about it logically, like if you are an long long-term investor with a serious amount of capital um and you're seeing what's happened with Bitcoin these last few months or in the last year, but you've seen what's happened with Nvidia, you've seen what's happened with Tesla, you've seen what's happened with um or even just since the start of April, right? But really, when we go back to, you know, 2025, April tariff lows, you know, Tesla's almost up 100%. Um, Bitcoin's probably down 20%. Um, if we go to Nvidia, same thing. What's Nvidia up from April tariff lows? You know, it's almost up a 3x. Um, so as as an astute investor and smart money, you can kind of understand why our marginal buyer, why our traditional finance um constituents are kind of investing into other financial markets for the time being. and you're seeing those ETF outflows. Um, it's because of that exact fact, right? Um, and it's a it's a tough pill to swallow. Um, but the key here and what I'll explain a bit later on a higher time frame is understanding that that's the key to investing and making an asymmetric bet is when not when all things are firing for Bitcoin, but when everything is dull, when everything is bottomed out, when there isn't a catalyst and everyone's kind of giving up. You know, I can show you on the Bitcoin chart every time this happened in history. Um, I don't know how many of you were here then, but what was the catalyst for Bitcoin here or here or here or here or here?

[00:18:19]Very, very, very similar situations.

[00:18:21]Good day, Will. Nice to see you. Glad you can hear me. Um, but in any case, um, hopefully that all makes sense. Once again, I'll wait for any questions on the stock market, the correlation.

[00:18:33]Um, and anything else if anyone has any questions. Um, before I move on to Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, um, kind of explaining the fundamental reasoning as to why we're seeing Bitcoin. I believe there's kind of a confluence of three different reasons. Um, I'll get started on that, but I'll just wait a tiny little bit.

[00:19:01]Am I really blurry, by the way? Oh, no.

[00:19:08]Mine's on 480p. Let's put me in HD. Oh, I look a bit better there.

[00:19:14]No one's got a question. That's all right. Um, I guess everyone's got a pretty thorough understanding of everything that's occurring right now.

[00:19:22]But let's move on to Bitcoin. And I figured that most people would actually want a bit of a brief explanation um as to what's kind of happening. And I guess the largest headline that could come out of the last two days or early this week seeing it drop from as high as 74K down to almost as low as 64K but we caught 65k support um is Michael Sailor selling Bitcoin now I think what was it?

[00:19:43]It was 32 Bitcoin someone correct me. So which is what it would be maybe it wasn't 32 I think it was 32 it was like 2 and a half mil or something. Um so to put that in words of the percentage of their sack I think it was something like 0.004%. 00 4% of their stack they sold.

[00:20:01]Um, and they still hold 843,76 Bitcoin. Um, so this is not say they're dumping in raw numbers, but it's a, you know, whatever it is. Um, and the market was spooked, right? Um, and it's got nothing to do with the size. You know, people seem to read it and go, "Why is the market spooking?" Um, Nathan has asked, "Is Bitcoin going lower?" Um, I I I I could answer that for you, uh, Nathan, in one second. Um, but it's the first crack, I guess, in his little narrative, in his little spill in four years. Um, you know, I remember Michael Sailor in the last bare market telling us all to sell a kidney before you ever sell Bitcoin to buy more Bitcoin. And, um, you know, it is a crack in that narrative. And I guess as a smart holder of ETFs of whatever you want to say here as a large whale, let's just say a large catalyst of yours for holding Bitcoin was that you had Michael Sailor accumulating all this Bitcoin and that's why price goes up. Well, if you've now had a realization that he can sell it at any moment to fund dividend payments, would you then still hold Bitcoin? I guess kind of not, right? Like if that is one of the the great catalysts of why you're holding it because you want to get behind the Michael Sailor bid. Well, that's kind of been destroyed now and it's exact reason why we've dropped so much in the last few days, I believe.

[00:21:23]Um, but they need the cash to fund dividend payments on their preferred stock. They do need this. Um, but the part that people are kind of waking up to is that, you know, strategies built this huge stack by issuing equity, convertible debt, and preferred shares.

[00:21:36]And I believe by next year, they're owing about one a half billion um in uh they have to pay out one and a half billion in dividend obligations. Um and so I guess if their share price always trades at a fat premium to the Bitcoin they hold then keep raising that cheap money or debt um to cover all that and keep buying. But you know that's the issue here is that when Bitcoin falls and the premium kind of compresses that fear is here is like so the average buy is right here right so Michael Sailor right now is down billions of dollars on that even though price is only down 10%.

[00:22:10]But what happens if price comes into here and they still have that obligation of paying out that dividend?

[00:22:18]What do you guys think will happen?

[00:22:20]Well, they're going to have to sell Bitcoin to meet those fixed payments. I think this week was kind of the first time that mechanism actually ticked over. And he kind of wanted to test the market in a way. And even if it was in a small way, right, like um that's what's really rattled people. And it's kind of the reflexivity uh reflexivivity risk made real because as plain and simple the market's biggest buyer just turned into a seller in real time and I think that's what spooked people um that he holds 6 to 7% of this asset and the realization for four years or the belief was that he'll never sell and we have that sustained bid forever.

[00:22:58]Now it's hang on he can actually sell. So what I'm saying here is it's not a reason to get completely bearish and throw the toys out of the cot because Michael Sailor probably will stick to his word more than he won't I hope but I frame it as a warning shot not really a crisis. So you know if that equity premium kind of stays compressed and the pressure to sell more to service those dividends only builds well you can actually build a pretty strong bearish case that strategy will turn from a buyer to a seller to remove and remove the single largest bid that you know this cycle was kind of relied on alongside ETFs. and you look at the numbers this year, he's accumulated like something like 20 times or 10 times more than the ETFs have. Um, particularly now given the outflows that have happened kind of recently. Um, but yeah, if they get forced into selling Bitcoin to meet those payments, you know, it's going to be a bit of a warning shot to people and I think you can really build a bearish case. Um, but at the moment, you know, they're still clearly managing this balance sheet actively. Um, they just bought back one and a half billion of their debt, so their convertible notes at about an 8% discount. So at 92%. Um trimmed their total debt down and the Bitcoin, you know, yield for the year still sitting at 13 and a half% or so. So you know, whole market's watching now.

[00:24:10]So let's see what kind of happens. Um yeah, Mike, that would be um interesting. Um so you think there is more to say my was just internet war.

[00:24:20]It's a fair point. Yeah. So I I I I do believe there is something to it. Big bad Bitcoin boy. I really like your name. I might actually steal that alias and um call that call myself that. But um yeah, I guess that is kind of you got to be real about it, right? Like I think at the very start, in the first 24 hours or so, I kind of did say that big bad Bitcoin boy, I said this is a clear overreaction, blah blah blah. When you actually think of it into it logically, he runs a company that has shareholders that he is whatever this is. Um, and if they have to sell that to fund dividends and shareholders, well, then you're going to they're going to have to sell, right? It is a real possibility.

[00:25:01]So, um, yeah, just keep that in mind.

[00:25:04]I'm not saying it's going to happen. And I do believe Bitcoin can lift from here and we can weather this storm and quite this bearish intake of, you know, fundamental news that hasn't hit us nicely, but it is a real consideration that you have to take into account.

[00:25:17]All righty. So, what is the second catalyst for this downside move? Well, it's not just Michael Sailor selling.

[00:25:21]What has happened with ETFs? I think you know it's been weeks in between I hold these. I reckon one four weeks ago we're talking about the reason main reason why we had gone up so nicely from the start of the Iran US war. It was why well we were having record inflows, right? We were having I think a few months of solid inflows where they were we had streaks of you know 10 15 days of hundreds of millions of dollars following into the year as Bitcoin was at a discount. Obviously Black Rockck and others were advising their clients to maybe scoop it up as a hedge against the war or maybe due to other several other catalysts and now you've had the complete opposite. So you know as the a AI cape and maybe people that were investing here weren't quite you know AI has accelerated for me and these companies is continuing to accelerate from here. So maybe these people began to rotate out into AI and into the stock market or into cash and we have seen very very very intense money leaving Bitcoin. So I think last week was 1.67 six, seven billion in outflows, I believe. Um, and the key here is that it's native to Bitcoin, right? Like I can show you the values of Hyperlid, Salana, XRP. Um, they quietly took in inflows. So, um, YouTubal, whilst I used to be. um you should probably contact your accountant about that. I can't give you financial advice or accounting advice legally. I apologize. Um so there's been three straight weeks of outflows. So not just last week of 1.67 billion. And like let's put that in perspective. Like I actually use this example all the time back when we were in this range.

[00:26:59]Everyone remembers when like Germany sold what was it? Was it 1 and a half billion or three billion? It was like the most bearish cattle ever. Like the market could not stomach that a nation was selling Bitcoin at 58k. like it was in here, right? Or something that like caused the August crash or thereafter and every oh my god they're selling 3 billion in Bitcoin like we're stuffed or Mount Gaus just gave out 1 billion and now it's like we have almost close to two billion ETF outflows in a week and just no one blinks an eye, right? Like it's not even thought of um or it's not even considered. But um pretty much since the top we've had that sustained move downwards with no real inflows from corporate treasuries to Bitcoin natively at least. And you know, you can put this 3WE outflow streak squarely on the Iran driven risk off, I guess. Um because you know, even with that US crypto legislation popping up in the background um the macros overriding the news and kind of that Michael Sailor native news.

[00:27:52]Um, and yeah, like it's no surprise to me because like you know, whilst it is kind of in hindsight, right, like we have this perfect cocktail of Michael Sailor ETF outflows, April PC coming in hot. The oil shock from the war is feeding straight into inflation. 30-year yields are at like over 5% or something.

[00:28:13]Yeah, close to 5%, you know, at 5%.

[00:28:16]um which is it highest level since like 2007 or something or like oh no it's not I thought it was um so high for longer affirm a dollar elevated yields AI capex boom in stocks ETF outflows Michael say the selling and then the last one is quantum right so I don't know if anyone has been following quantum but if you want to know why Zcash something I've gone over you know many many weeks ago I might have even gone over Zcash in our first live stream when it was trading getting here, right? And Zcash has done 100% since there and is one of our our top picks that we dollar cost sorry that we bought earlier in the cycle um that we present to our members that I've been giving heavy analysis on. Um if you're someone that wants to understand like how we approach this and why we pick Ze Hyperlid these type of coins and why we've been invested in them, I would highly recommend attending Will's webinar tomorrow night. Um I'll pop a link in the chat in a second. Um I will just grab it off him now. Um, and you should really come along to that live stream or that webinar, sorry, and learn how we approach dollar cost averaging, accumulation, how will turned his life around um, following these methods. I just put that uh, link in the um, chat then. But I would really recommend if you are a newbie to crypto or you are wanting to learn about what we do and how we analyze things and why we're able to pick such successful alts is I would go along to Will's webinar um, take a look, ask some questions and go from there. But in any case, the reason why Zcash is up from yesterday up 16 and a half%. Think about how hard we crashed on everything is because of quantum resistance. And this is something I've spoken heavily on in these live streams in the past. If you have a coin that's a proofof work coin at 21 million coins that's been evenly distributed through mining throughout the years, you know, this coin can go back to as old as bloody any other coin, you know. Um, what time is it tomorrow? I believe it's 5:00 p.m. If Will is still in the chat, he could confirm that for me. Um, but yeah, I believe it's 5:00 PM AST.

[00:30:18]Um, yeah, awesome. Big bad Bitcoin boy.

[00:30:20]I'm going to call you QuadB. Big bad Bitcoin boy. Sorry. Um, so what where was I at? I've actually forgotten. Oh yeah. Um, so if you have a coin that's been evenly distributed amongst miners and participants, you know, across 10 to 15 years, that's proof of work, but then has the two exact things that Bitcoin lacks, which is what I've got over so much, privacy and quantum resistance, then um it's going to get a bid and you're going to see liquidity flow out of Bitcoin and flow into Zcash, right?

[00:30:51]So there's almost got polar opposite charts. Um but that is the another another huge catalyst and overhead overhang that many analysts you know including myself for the most part have believed has been factored into a lot of this downturn right and even I think it was in March maybe I reckon it was around here is when Google's paper got released and you know I'd be interested to see like you know 17th of March um you know yeah like in mid-March is when the quantum paper got released on Bitcoin and how Bitcoin's in a bit of trouble in by 2030 if it doesn't fix the SH algorithm and upgrade to certain quantum resistance and what has happened to Zcash since then. Pretty obvious, right? So, you can imagine that a lot of people now have the same investing thesis as a lot of us at Imperial Wealth. This is exactly why it was in my free top picks report at the start of the year and posted to YouTube is that, you know, people want to own a cryptocurrency that is quantum resistant. They want to own something that they can transact with privately.

[00:31:52]and Bitcoin can't do that. So, you're going to expect outflows or people to hedge with Zcash against their Bitcoin or even just sell all their Bitcoin for Zcash, which I don't recommend doing at all. Um, and you're going to see a sustained bid in this coin until either those things are sorted or until, you know, people aren't willing to switch across. So, um, yeah. Um, that's the main catalyst I reckon fundamental reasons that I can explain to you why Bitcoin has been going down in recent days or at least why it has been from here. ETF outflows, quantum resistance is still not being improved and more things are being found out. Um, and Michael Sailor right here was Michael Sailor, right? So, you have my fundamental traders out there. I did see the party boys in here calling me handsome yet again. That man loves missiles and he loves following the news. So, that's his news report for him. Um, but for me, a technical trader, let's actually go over the charts. So, um, yeah, as I said, like the the headline has done the damage. sailor, but we can actually look to the charts um and to see what actually happened.

[00:32:56]So, let's actually go back a little bit.

[00:33:01]Apologies. I kind of want to explain to you guys why price can drop so hard because what happens here is there's relative lows that come in. Let's actually draw out the weekly candle lows. And what Bitcoin does is it travels from liquidity section to liquidity section. What happens is if there's little to no structure, then Bitcoin can just slice through faster than you can blink. And for us Australians, right, you would have woken up in the morning and you would have thought, "What the hell? How did I went to bed at 70K last night? How did it get as low as 65k so quickly?" Well, we have three weekly candle lows that were below us when price broke below this weekly candle low. Right? So, let's draw that out and then we can go to the daily and you can begin to see, right? So, in between this liquidity level here, and I said this to members last night, uh that's a short box there where all of this liquidity sat under these lows and it was a strong support level as we first came into that level and we can even go to the alley to look at this a bit closer and we saw an initial bounce from that level, right? Because it's expected support. I think the golden pocket was around here. Point of control might have been a bit lower, but you can see that we bounce and it was our support, but as soon as it sliced through, why did it actually slice through? because there is little to no structure at all between this low and this low. So, there was about a $4,000 gap and price just went straight from this low, these lows to the next one. And we didn't even hold on to the golden pocket. And even if I go to the it'll show it again, right? Like um and I can show you an example of when this actually actually worked. So, um if we go back, right?

[00:34:41]And what it looks like when structure holds is that let's get rid of all this.

[00:34:49]Price peaked here and it came back down, right? And what did it do? There's week there was a monthly candle low here.

[00:34:55]I'll show you on the monthly. March monthly candle low on the very first day of the month. Jesus. So that's the March monthly candle low. Correct.

[00:35:04]If we go to the daily, you'll see the price came in and by the end of March, it perfectly swept its structural level and then it bounced. Right? So the expectation here was that that would either happen here, here, or here.

[00:35:19]And what would have happened is is if if it didn't hold here, it would have done the exact same thing as what it's done.

[00:35:24]The next structural lows were here. That is the next level of support. That is how liquidity, that is how price action works. So, I wanted to quickly explain that to anyone that was confused by over price to how we can slide so hard technically. Um, but you know, once again, um, it's still very very very technical. So, if we go back to the weekly, and you might think, well, why did we randomly why did we randomly bounce from exactly 65.3K?

[00:35:51]Well, we have a weekly candle low here.

[00:35:53]So, it went to the next weekly candle level structurally. It hovered just above the 786, which is usually a very strong reversion point for Bitcoin.

[00:36:02]But more importantly, if you draw the volume profile, you'll see that we auctioned right into the value area low.

[00:36:08]Now, what does a value area low tell you based on volume? We use this to determine that when an asset is within a range is either underpriced or overpriced. So, when it is above the value area high, that is presenting as resistance. And usually once it loses that, well, then it becomes quite bearish. Where did we trade to as soon as we lost the value area high? We traded straight to the value area low.

[00:36:32]Now, why would I expect to bounce from the value area low? Because that is what tells me ditcoin in this discount is well in this range is at a deep discount. If you get that in confluence with a weekly candle low 786 other metric, you're probably going to accept a bounce just as we expected it to reject several times as we watch, but also once it lost that level um come down into the low area of support. So, for the time being, it's actually not over for Bitcoin and I'll quickly explain why. And it goes back to the market structure kind of examples and explanations I've been giving um within the crypto academy particularly in my BTC um solo report that I gave out not last week but the week before and through market updates right and so what we've done since making that low is locally we've been battling higher highs and higher lows correct higher higher low and what we've actually done here excruciatingly for bulls is that we've put in a higher high and we've actually rallied and we haven't broken below our higher low and we've actually put in a higher low here. So technically, is it all over? Well, from a market structural perspective in this range, it's actually not purely from a market structure perspective because technically price could still do this and make a new higher high up here and then make a new higher low wherever it wants to. Um the higher high could be up here, then the next higher low here, whatever it is.

[00:37:52]And the idea that we want to see break or that we want to see happen is that we want to actually see market structure shift on a higher time frame.

[00:38:01]So let me just delete my scribbles. Um guys feel free to ask any questions that I'm doing on any of this. I won't from now on and I won't stop and ask and wait for questions. Just ask them as I'm doing it if anything comes to mind. And then of course on a higher time frame as as as I've shown is that we get the opposite lower highs and lower lows.

[00:38:18]Correct for market structure. So the idea and the bearish idea here is that we failed to break above this SR flip.

[00:38:24]We didn't even manage to reach the pivot golden pocket. We filled that CME gap that was um uh right in here. And after we filled probably I think the last ever CME gap now that CME is done um we've had a massive drop followed by ETF outflows.

[00:38:39]Whatever fundamental reasoning that you want, but this is a very very clean rejection of the 200 day moving average as well. um what's actually you know a large piece of the puzzle that many people look to throughout bull markets bare markets is that 200 day MA correct and I don't use moving averages alone I use them in confluence and the one thing that I now propose that could possibly happen is now that we've rejected the 200 day MA you may get golden opportunities to invest in Bitcoin between 48,000 and roughly 60,000 in this level here. Now why would I say that? Well, if you go to the weekly chart, where does the 200 week moving average come in? It comes in right here at 61K.

[00:39:24]And I've shown this many I've shown this in the first live stream I ever did. I showed this weeks and weeks ago when we was when we were pumping. I speculated, don't get too ahead of yourself because, you know, this is a midterm year. We could see stock market top. Um we could see misalignment of liquidity shifts, so on and so forth. And I said, you're going to get a pretty good opportunity if we make that next higher higher time frame, higher low right in this area here between, you know, 54, 48, whatever you want. And the reason I say that is once again on a weekly perspective for structure. Weekly candle low, weekly candle low, weekly candle low, weekly candle low. So from 48K, let's say, all the way up to the 200E moving average. I think that is a great place for you to plan ahead for to invest into Bitcoin further. Um that is someone that if you want a dollar cost average, if you're waiting out for lower bids, you know, I'm not saying that's definitively going to happen and that they're 100% going to be um trading down into that area. But you have to structurally plan ahead psychologically and emotionally. You know, even myself, I have so many clients that you'd be surprised that are so happy to buy Bitcoin here, here, but they're not happy to buy it here.

[00:40:33]They're not happy to buy it here. And the idea that comes in is that psychologically you always think it's going to go lower. Just like when you're buying here, you always think it's going to go higher. And it's just the way we work as humans with emotions, with greed, um you know, so on and so forth that you just can't stomach it. So I would suggest using limit orders even within this area. Um I would suggest using periodic dollar cost averaging. Um, once again guys, if this is something that isn't making sense to you or you don't know how to successfully do limit ordering, dollar cost averaging, accumulation, we'll we'll go over the, you know, exactly what we do at the crypto academy and at Imperial Wealth tomorrow night. So, definitely hit that.

[00:41:13]I'll pop that link in there once again.

[00:41:15]Um, yeah, Mike. Exactly. It's just exactly how fear and greed works, right?

[00:41:19]And it's exactly how humans work. And you'll see it with the stock market, the exact same thing. Um, I'm not telling you to do it, Douglas.

[00:41:27]I'm saying if you are someone that wants to dollar cost average into Bitcoin now that we are seeing a discount on Bitcoin you most likely will well if you do want to accumulate further should not just think that if it breaks down below here the price is going to here that price is going to here or to here you know you need to have a fundamental understanding of what you value Bitcoin at but statistics show that whenever Bitcoin has more than a 50% pullback it has over a 90% strike rate of you know providing a 100% return within um within a And so all I'm saying here, right, is that we've got multiple technical confluences. We've got a 200WE moving average, which let me go on to a different Bitcoin chart here and show you what this means.

[00:42:09]You'll see that in almost any bare market we've ever had in history, what it does is the Bitcoin price comes down to the 200E moving average. It then dips below it or trades at it for some time and then we get a bull market. So right, that was 2017. Let me show you again.

[00:42:26]2019, what did we do? Price came down, down, down. It pumped. It down, down, down. It came right to the 200week moving average. Pumped. What did we do next time on the m next major pullback?

[00:42:36]You know, look how big these pullbacks are. They're not small. 71%.

[00:42:40]Straight to 200E moving average. Pumped.

[00:42:42]What did we do in the last bare market?

[00:42:43]Well, we actually traded under it for some time and then we pumped. So, what's to say, right, that in coming weeks, like I'm showing, sorry, not coming weeks, coming months, that you know, regardless if Bitcoin what your opinions on, you can't factor in that it doesn't just do exactly what it did down here, that that I can just drag the price action across, right?

[00:43:09]Even if it was like that, right? And the bull market in 2027 started there, but you had all of this time in here when price was between 66k as low as 55k to accumulate as much Bitcoin as you wanted before it went up. So all I'm saying is have a plan. You don't have to dollar cost average. I'm not telling you that.

[00:43:28]But if price does head down to this 200WE moving average, you can see multiple confluences. This is pre-election Donald Trump weekly candle lows. This is the major cycle golden pocket from our low to high. We then don't have the 200WE moving average. We even have the Bitcoin cost of production that ledges into here. You know, this Bitcoin cost of production indicator that I use price has never ever broken below it and it makes a well it has in co but you know if you once again these are just confluences but to me if I see more than a 50% discount on BTC it's coming into the 200E moving average into a major support and liquidity level into its cost of production. you best bet that that is a pretty good asymmetric bet to myself. That's just my opinion.

[00:44:13]Um, but yeah, I'm happy to hear anyone else's thoughts on what you think is going to happen with Bitcoin, what you would do if you saw lower, what price you think it's going to reach. Let me know in the comments um and I can go over that. But really, that's the structural plan I would have um if Bitcoin does head lower. And I do have myself I have limit orders down there. I have a limit order at 58K um that I've left there since a few months ago. unfortunately got front run at, you know, 59.8K.

[00:44:40]Um, but yeah, I I I I guess you need to have a plan and if that's something you're looking out for, you know, come speak to us. Um, I'm going to have dollar cost averaging and Ethereum plans, you know, for um my clients that they can follow. I'm going to be having dollar cost averaging. If we enter into this level, this is when I begin buying a lot of altcoins um particularly high conviction ones. Um so, if you're wanting to get access to those, you know, yeah, feel free to reach out. go to Will's webinar tomorrow night. He's just posted the link again.

[00:45:08]Um, but yeah, really that's my my look on Bitcoin. We're all on a higher time frame. The mapping out still remains the exact same, right? That we need to break bearish market structure on Bitcoin.

[00:45:19]What is that going to come from? Well, it's either going to come from liquidity shift, a macro shift, or a catalyst shift, right? And until we break this series of lower lows and lower highs, you best bet that a new lower low can be made. If we can bouch from them here and eradicate this 98k prior lower high and this line as well, well, we're going to put in new alltime highs. I'm pretty confident of that. So, um you know, someone might ask me, what are you doing now to plan for that?

[00:45:45]Well, I'm not going to share that with you because this is a a public live stream obviously, and that's kind of the alpha that my clients get. But in any case, um that's exactly what we have to do for now. As I've shown, Bitcoin is actually holding very nice support here.

[00:46:00]Um, and it's not over locally despite what everyone thinks. Um, as I showed, we're actually minorly holding higher high and higher low structure. We've now hit the value area low of the range.

[00:46:11]What I want to see from here, a rally.

[00:46:13]Now, can we get alt outperforming Bitcoin from this stage? It's a very, very interesting question you asked my friend. Even though no one asked it, I'm just answering myself. Look at that. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 nine daily red candles for Bitcoin dominance. Now, what is Bitcoin dominance for those that don't know it?

[00:46:34]This is a measure of the total market capitalization that is made up by Bitcoin. Um, and so this shows you that what is happening that altcoins are gaining ground on Bitcoin. Um, namely Hyperlquid, Ze, a few others. Um, even Ethereum has been holding up better.

[00:46:50]I'll show FBTC and F dominance in a sec, but this is a real capability here that it's not saying that we're going to get a massive alt season and it is coming into high time frame support here by the way as well. Um, so I would be interested to see if there's a bounce here and you can use FBTC and F dominance as confluence. Um, but this can give you an idea of particularly in the trading sphere, which we also teach here at Imperial Wealth is that you can begin looking for longs in areas on coins like Doge or high-risk, you know, altcoins or outperformers like Hyperlquid and Ze, and you can actually make a better return than you can on Bitcoin. Now, why do I think there's a chance for this to get continuation and this that can only be like a few weeks, it can be a month, two months, it could be the month of June for all we know.

[00:47:29]Um, but it's very important to understand particularly, you know, if you're trading um out there. But if I show you FBTC, the reason why I'm getting a bit funky here is that both F dominance and both Let me just hide those. Sorry, that's annoying. Um, both F, uh, FBTC, um, you know, it's in it, you know, very long downtrend against Bitcoin. It's no surprise that it's underperformed heavily this cycle. But we're coming into golden pocket support, which represents a pretty strong SR flip here.

[00:47:59]And I noticed that the exact same time as it's coiling just below this um you know downtrend is that we're either going to see it break out massively here by holding on to support. And the reason we can get extra confidence in that is that the exact same thing is happening on F dominance right where we've come right into the golden pocket an exact SR flip and you know I know this are correlated but if we can put in you know a higher low here and rally above 14 to 15% which is a massive massive move and FBTC to break out where you're going to get a continued downtrend um and rejection in um Bitcoin dominance and you're actually going to likely see continued outperformance in coins like Hyperlid in coins um like Ze and where the charts you can actually look to here are the XXX BTC charts or for instance a hyperlid Bitcoin chart. You know I said exactly at this point on this live stream um two weeks ago I was showing these exact charts at this point um you know probably around here and I queried that you know hyperl can 100% continue to outperform Bitcoin.

[00:49:02]People think that you know just because it's rallied so much it can't. This was the alltime highs. This was the all-time highs. What it did was it broke those.

[00:49:09]It came down and retested this SR flip, confirmed it as support. And what has happened? It's gone exactly up. That that chart was here when I showed you guys. And I queried whether it can outperform and why I was confident it would continue to outperform. The exact same thing on Ze. This is how you look for outperformers in the market or you can you can just get me to do it for you. But if if anyone wanted to learn themselves, the exact same thing happened here. You know, we were at this stage on Ze when I was showing you guys right here and I was quering, you know, seeing a break above last year's highs would see further outperformance. A rejection magazine, Ze can retrace. So, it was quering all in here. Since we've reclaimed the cycle F, sorry, Ze BTC highs and we're heading higher and continuing to outperform. Once again, tell me the news. I'll show you the chart. You know, this doesn't have to you don't have to have the quantum thesis. You can literally just look to this chart and know that Ze is outperforming Bitcoin. You don't actually even have to know the reason why that there's been liquidity shifts and money is selling into Ze versus Bitcoin. You can just kind of look to this uh look to this chart, right? So, um yeah, I I do have a query or a slight, you know, inkling that we could see some old coin outperformance soon.

[00:50:17]And once again, that's all via the charts, but fundamentally why? Well, quantum issue, um sailor selling that doesn't pertain to to F to other coins.

[00:50:27]um you know several reasons, hyperlquid tokenization, stable coins, so on and so forth. So you don't want to always just be trapped speculating on Bitcoin.

[00:50:35]Obviously at Imperial Wealth and as Will will explain tomorrow night at his webinar, we always denominate majority of our portfolio in Bitcoin. Um and then we also go for high conviction altcoins to speculate on in certain periods right now like right now with Hyperlid and Ze.

[00:50:50]So we can make good gains in periods of troughs or in periods where Bitcoin might not be performing so well, take profits and sell those and then we can put those either back into Bitcoin or in our pocket to somehow defeat this nasty capital gains tax removal by our man Elbow. So um yeah, once again um keen to see how these play out. Just to kind of answer on Bitcoin for you guys, no, I do not expect lower. I do not expect 40k on Bitcoin or the areas I was explaining now. As long as we hold this structure of higher highs and higher lows here, if we do get a break below here, that is when you are beginning to get greedy. As Mike said, when it breaks below here, yes, it's bearish for price action, but it's bullish for buying. It's not bullish buying up here. It's bullish buying down here because you get an lower average buy. You can take more risky bets and the asymmetry to the upside is far is far more prevalent, right? And so that is going to be my plan. If you want our exact plan, then come speak to us. But I'm going to be investing in high conviction altcoins if we enter into this period over coming months. And even if we do, I would be very very very very confident that a bottom happens exactly between August and October and this period here and at these prices if we do break below. And I'll be using the time in between June to October just as I did in 2022 to accumulate high conviction old coins, Bitcoin and Ethereum. If you ask any of our members that are here in this period here, from exactly June when I first joined Imperial Wealth, from this period to this period, I didn't nail the bottom. I bought Bitcoin at 27K, 25K, 22K, 17, 19K, and 17K, and the bottom was 15K. I missed it by one halfK. Did I care? Nope. I bought Salana at $25. I bought Chain Link at $6. I bought Doge at 5. I bought several assets that I used the slow burning, you know, psychologically damaging time when most people gave up here, particularly after FTX. We bought things on the FTX lows.

[00:52:53]Most people give up here. But if you have a strategy and a plan in place based on technical analysis, based on fundamental understanding, based on data, you can accumulate high conviction altcoins, Bitcoin and Ethereum in this period. And you shouldn't be using it as bearish. Bitcoin crashing, sale sold. Is it over? No. Is your portfolio about to be destroyed? Not yet. Just kidding. Um but you really really need to be using this time to kind of switch your psychological um understanding of the market. Um if we do break below here, you know, yes, old coins are going to get a pullback, but you need to have a plan in place whether to sell or whether to accumulate further. And I'll be using it to accumulate further, not throwing the coins out of the out of the cot. You know, I'm very happy with the performance of Hyperlid. very happened with the performance of Zcash. Um we've had some other altcoins that have been doing well as well. Um but I'll be looking to add to those um over coming months, over coming weeks if you do break below. If not, I'm already set to go and I've had a plan in place for that as well. Um so yeah, I think that's really all I wanted to go over. Once again, um I'm not explicitly going to explain my strategy, the exact limit orders I'm going to be using for Bitcoin, the exact high conviction altcoins I am going to accumulate in this period. Once again, you want to come and learn about what we do, come to Will's webinar tomorrow night, um who will explain all of this, um or better yet, sign up and see what we're about.

[00:54:15]But, um yeah, good luck to all of those that have been watching. Thank you everyone for coming. Um that's really generally how I see the market. Once again, if you want to know if Bitcoin going lower, which is a question Nathan asked me, um for the 900th time, everyone, uh I don't have a crystal ball. I can't give you that explicit answer. Um the odds to me of Bitcoin going lower if we lose this low is extremely high N. So if we use this and we create a lower low I think Bitcoin can sweep these lows. I think it can touch the 200E moving average. It could even touch the golden pocket in here in these wide for these weekly candle lows from Trump's presidency before reversing. Um so yeah, I definitely do think there's a very strong chance that Bitcoin can go lower. If it holds this higher low, we begin to see ETF inflows.

[00:54:56]There's a bit of clarity coming in about sailor selling. Um maybe you just never know what's around the corner. Like that's why you can't kind of give a prediction on price action, right?

[00:55:06]Because who predicted sailor was going to do this? Who predicts the clarity act gets passed here? What happens if that happens? What happens if tomorrow we wake up and the core development team of Bitcoin have passed quantum resistance?

[00:55:17]You just don't know the other sides of these catalysts. But yeah, simply hang in there. Um watch for price action for my members. I'll be, you know, diving into this every day in the Discord as I usually do, providing updates um and guidance for you guys to do it. If you have any questions at all um to my clients about buying, selling the market, um if you want to ask me, Bitcoin's going to go up and down, please feel free to ask in the Discord.

[00:55:40]Me, Wilson, will always be there to answer your questions for our premium members. Um, and yeah, if you've got any questions at all about anything else, you know, the difference between the AI capeex boom and stocks and crypto, um, the macro side of things, you know, I really, really think these next few months is going to be very juicy and very important to to not just our investing, but in crypto, but everywhere. Um, you're going to see um, a lot of things happen in the stock market. You're going to see things happen a lot macroeconomically with inflation, um, with the data, with the war. So, yeah, make sure you're tuned in. Make sure you've got someone helping you out if you don't analyze these markets yourself. Um, and hang in there.

[00:56:18]I think we're in for a really, really interesting few weeks and months. So, there you go, Nate. Um, I I will leave.

[00:56:25]I think we've been going for about an hour or so. Yeah, just shy. Um, if anyone has any questions at all about anything I've spoken about, whether it's some of the fundamentals, DXY, oil, stock charts, BTC, um, my plans for law, whatever it is, um, hit me up in the chat right now or else I will leave it there.

[00:56:55]See you, Ninja. No worries, Mike. Good on you. Good on you, Grant.

[00:57:02]Thanks, Nate.

[00:57:08]Yeah. Cheers, Mark coming along.

[00:57:10]Appreciate it.

[00:57:20]Thanks, Ron.

[00:57:23]Cheers, Rob.

[00:57:25]All righty, guys. Looks like no questions there. So, I'll wrap it up and I'll see you in two weeks time where we have Fonk, we have some other catalysts and there's probably going to be a lot that happens between in and there now.

[00:57:34]So, let's we'll revisit this price action. We'll see if we held the higher low and whether we rerallally to a new higher high or whether we get a break below and we get an opportunity to accumulate in this area of certain high conviction altcoins and Bitcoin. And I'll be staying in touch with all members on that, of course. All righty.

[00:57:50]Thank you very much, guys. And I will uh see you next