I Think Bitcoin Tops This Week - Here's Why...

Added: 2026-05-12

[00:00:00]Yeah.

[00:00:26]Warning. This video and all other videos on this channel for entertainment purposes only. The content of this video and all other videos on this channel are the opinions of the creator only and do not constitute legal, trading, investment or financial advice of any kind. Investing carries a high level of risk and the majority of retail clients lose money. Do not invest in capital unless you understand the risk and you are prepared to lose it all. All right.

[00:00:39]Hello and welcome to Camel Finance. I'm your boy Camel and I'm not going to lie, I just can't wait to get the rest of this month over. Mostly because I don't think anything's going to happen between now and the end of the month. We're just kind of waiting for the cycle lows. Once we got some cycle lows, we can figure out whether we're going to trade them or use them as a learning experience. I expect to take some profit ahead of these cycle lows. I'll talk about this stuff in a minute, but it seems that there's not a lot to do for the next couple of weeks. There is CPI, I think, tomorrow, so that'll be interesting to look at. Although, these days, the market doesn't even care about that either. Have you noticed this? It's because they have figured out that the CPI data is heavily manipulated. They have figured out that CPI has been well below target for a year and a half now.

[00:01:20]It's only the people that don't understand the difference between absolute inflation and rate of change that are upset about inflation. the market in aggregate no longer really cares. And yes, there'll be some chop gains in volatility as always, but I don't even think CPI has the impact that it did even a year ago. So, I'm not even convinced CPI is going to help us out here. I did want to spend just a brief moment discussing translation cuz I'm getting a lot of questions about this. A lot of you have asked me to cover it. A lot of you don't seem to understand a couple of things about it. Translation or cycle translation literally just means wherever the high forms in a cycle. So if we have a low here and a low here, we draw a line right through the middle of it or the halfway point or the midpoint as it's often called. Okay?

[00:01:59]And if the cycle peaks to the left hand side, it's left translated. Okay? If it peaks to the right hand side, we call it right translated. And a lot of people have been saying things like, "Oh, hey Camel, how come you said if it goes right trans a couple of times, then that's bullish." It's like, okay, let's be clear. Translation or the expectation of certain translations is a guideline, not a rule set. Okay? So in a very textbook and note the terminology here in a textbook definition of a bullish larger order degree cycle. So let's say we got a weekly cycle low here and a weekly cycle low here. Okay. It would be comprised of again textbook definition.

[00:02:35]We would have one two three right trans and then a left trans and fail. Okay.

[00:02:40]Now, just because that's the kind of most commonly observed and easiest to define textbook definition of a larger order degree bullish cycle with three right translations and a left. Okay, it doesn't mean that that's exactly what is going to show up on every weekly cycle.

[00:02:57]It equally does not mean if we have three right trans here, we have to get a left trans in the cycle four. Okay? And Bitcoin already proved that. It has done four larger order degree fouryear cycles right translated. So on a balance of probabilities, we're kind of expecting left trans on the next one. Okay, but it doesn't have to do that. It is a market.

[00:03:16]Anything and everything is on the table all of the time. Okay, I'm seeing lots of people say, well, camel, this first daily cycle out of Bitcoin's current low was right translated. So does that mean we're going to have three more right trans or you know, one, two, and then a left trans? It doesn't mean that. Okay, this is literally, like I said, a guideline, not a rule set. So translation is really just an observation. It's not a predictive tool in any way, shape, or form. Okay? Like I said, right at the start, we have a low.

[00:03:44]Oops. We draw a halfway point right through the middle of it. Okay? And all we do is observe where the peak comes.

[00:03:49]If it comes here, then we say, "Oh, okay. That's left translation." Now, yes, it does imply bearishness because we have run out of buyers early in the cycle and thus we have to spend the remainder of the cycle moving downwards.

[00:04:02]Okay? We're going to spend longer in time declining than we are ascending.

[00:04:06]Which again, you could say another way to say we're going to spend more time selling here than we are buying. Okay?

[00:04:12]So, yes, left translation is typically bearish. Okay? Not necessarily in terms of the move from here to here because oftent times left translated moves from the low to the left translated peak can have spectacular gains in them. Okay.

[00:04:25]And that was another question I'm getting. Camel, you're calling for left translation in cycle five for the four-ear cycle for Bitcoin. Yes, it's an expectation of mine because like I said earlier, we've seen four right trans fouryear cycles now. And the question is, are you really expecting something like a 10x gain in 12 to 14 months?

[00:04:42]Okay. And first of all, yes, I am because as I said, sometimes you get spectacular moves in left translation.

[00:04:48]Okay. But also, it could be all the way to 23 months or even 24. That would still be mid-transated if it landed right here in the middle at month 24 for Bitcoin. Would we really care if it's mid-trans or slightly left trans? It doesn't make a difference. Even if it's slightly right trans, okay, if it peaks here, net impact is still the same.

[00:05:07]We're going to spend a little bit of time going up and much more time than we're used to coming down. Okay? So again, please don't use this translation as like a predictive tool. Please don't use it as like a hard rule set that we can't possibly be flexible with.

[00:05:20]Typically, as I said, yes, left translation would be bearish implications going forward. And typically right translation is of course the opposite because we spent more time bidding the asset, more time rallying and therefore we're probably just going to have a corrective pull back into the low before we can go again. But it doesn't have to be that way. And people were saying this about Bitcoin. Well, look, this is a right translated cycle.

[00:05:39]And now this is looking right translated. I think we're past the halfway point now, aren't we? Yeah, we definitely are. So we've now got two right trans cycles. Okay, fine. But that does not mean we can say for sure the next one will be right trans. Okay. And it also doesn't mean for sure that this is the bottom, okay? And we're now going to rally from here because we could very easily do this, okay? Cycle low and then grind up in another right translated cycle a couple of times, okay, and then fail again. So the translation, like I said, I think it's an observation and that's really it. Yes, you can sometimes infer certain outcomes, but I don't think I mean you never really see me say for example, oh, this is right translated that means what comes next is X, Y, or Z, right? So, I think that's where the confusion comes from. I think I'm starting to doom loop and repeat myself. So, we'll try to move on from here. I hope that helped for the people that had those sorts of questions. There certainly was a lot of you. Can't even remember why this is here. But if you haven't tried the indicator, try it, okay? I I don't know why you haven't tried it yet. There's so many people ask me questions about it every day. And it's free to try for 2 weeks, right?

[00:06:39]That's the whole point of it. You can try it. So, you don't have to ask me the questions. You can just go and figure it out for yourself. See if it's for you.

[00:06:46]And there's plenty of threads on my X profile that show it working in real time, right? We start like this with a target window and we end up with tradeable lows. So, it is what it is.

[00:06:54]Anyway, as a quick reminder, okay, I have been doing this over and over again, haven't I? I've been saying I think we could probably see about 80K and then move down into the cycle lows.

[00:07:02]And I've also been saying it could be 85K up here. Okay? And I also said I think one or two times if it was 90, whatever. I'm still going to claim victory on this call. Okay? Now, if you've got a problem with that, that's absolutely fine. I'm not here to sell you anything. I'm literally just telling you how I see it. Okay? And how I see it is 80 or 85k followed by a short sharp plunge into a cycle low and then we can kind of reassess from there. Okay? I've also said if the upcoming low is quite shallow and a significant higher low above these prior ones. Okay? Then we can talk about the bulls having credibility in their argument. Okay? But if we get a significant lower low in here, which is what I expect somewhere around that 60k level, it could be slightly above. Okay? It could be a higher low, a double bottom, or a lower low. doesn't really matter. Okay, so long as we get a nice sharp spill here into the low, then this is pretty much still cycles in control and everything else is narrative. You can see I've got a short ceued here for when we break down. And the last thing I wanted to point out, okay, is that we are currently on something like day 44 and we would expect to see the top sometime between about 45 and 50 and then have that couple of weeks, maybe 10day decline into the low, which is due right around the end of May. Okay, so that's what we've been saying. We've been saying it over and over and over again.

[00:08:14]And lots of people have got had a problem with this and that's fine. Lots of people have been saying that's the low and we're going to new highs from here. And I've said a million times I'm open to it. But keep in mind all I'm doing is applying my edge to the market here. Okay? I have a cycle system. I use the cycle system to trade and that's what we're doing here. And I think one last point to make here is that every dip has its narrative. Right? There are always dozens of narratives out there and the market will grab the narrative to justify the price action. Okay?

[00:08:38]whatever is available at the time, they'll use it to explain away this downside. And then when we're pumping, okay, they grab whatever's available at the time to justify the upside. But really, it's the cycles that are in control. And the news really doesn't mean anything, right? But as we are right here expecting a decline into a cycle low, even if not as severe as this. Okay, that is my expectation. But even if it's less than this, we still know that we're going to get a cycle low shakeout soon. And I can't help but look around me and see that people are kind of annoyed with the idea that Sailor's probably gonna dump around 130 million worth of Bitcoin in a month. Okay, if there was ever a narrative to justify this, it was I can't believe Mr. Diamond Hands Never Sell is selling Bitcoin.

[00:09:16]Right. I also stumbled into this and thought this was fascinating. The odds of a major crypto hedge fund blow up this year have just surged to 86%. Now, this could easily be a number of things.

[00:09:25]It could be thin liquidity, thin books, okay, on the poly market and thus this could be easily manipulated. It could also be this is just insider trading.

[00:09:34]Okay, I'll kind of leave that to you. I don't really know or care which one it is to be honest with you. But I did think it was interesting because prediction markets are normally reasonably good, right? They're normally a good marker because it is essentially markets full of insider trading. So, the fact that we've suddenly got 86% of a crypto hedge fund blowing up, right, when we're expecting a short and sudden and sharp drop kind of just says to me there's just another potential narrative out there. Even if it doesn't show for this cycle low somewhere in here, it would be like, oh, that would have been the low and that was going to be the double bottom and bull market confirmed and then we got the black swan in the form of this, right? Very, very typical cycle stuff. That's all I'm saying. And if you're new to cycles, you're probably I probably lost you a while ago, but you know, if you're one of the camel crew, if you have experience with cycles, if you've seen this all before a dozen times like I have or dozens of times like I have, then you're probably sitting there thinking, "Oh, wow." Okay.

[00:10:26]And that's exactly my opinion at the moment. It's like, "Oh, wow. Okay, let's see what happens." The guy that placed this bet also successfully bet against this company right here, which did actually blow up. And check this out.

[00:10:37]Okay? Because it has oddly specific conditions to make this pay out for a yes bet. But the reason I'm pointing at this is simply the market will resolve this based on the information that is public as of the 15th of May, which is just a couple of days away and exactly where you'd expect that right translated top to form for Bitcoin as we've been saying all week, right? So, I don't know, maybe I'm clutching at straws here. It's entirely up to you. Again, I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything. I'm just showing you what I see and what what is peing my interest at the moment. So the rest is up to you.

[00:11:07]We also know that shortly after we've got the cryptoclarity act to be voted on. They've already done the draft bill and Koshi here, the prediction markets are giving it 75% chance that this clarity act goes through. So I'm seeing a lot of people say this is probably bullish. It could be. I'm still looking at the cycles and thinking, yeah, maybe not. Right? We're kind of swimming against the tide until we've at least had more time in here first. And to kind of illustrate this tide again, we're right there at the 200 day MA. Okay, this 80K level is not only the weekly cycle retest, it's also the 200 MA. And this thing is turned down and it hasn't spent much time turned down. So, it would actually be a very unusual set of behaviors for Bitcoin to just flip this and go into a bull market here. Okay, I'm not saying it couldn't happen. I'm just saying it would be unusual. Okay, it would be very, very unusual. And when we look out at these supports, okay, this is 200 EMA down the bottom in blue.

[00:11:58]Maybe that was enough and we're not going to come down and touch it. Okay, each bottom kind of forms slightly differently as you can see. But I'm still suggesting that we probably have got to at least come back down a little bit more, something like this, right, before we can actually go here. With that said, when we look at the cost of production, it certainly does look like we are in the makings of a bottom here.

[00:12:17]Now, there's always people that want to misquote me. I am not calling a bottom here. Okay? So, I'm just saying that because people love to be like, "Oh, now you're hedging. Now you're now you're calling a bottom." No, I'm not. Okay?

[00:12:26]I'm just saying this one chart in isolation, ignoring everything else we've been talking about today looks potentially like the low could be in.

[00:12:34]Okay, that's what I'm saying. But everything else kind of points to me to at least have to come back down and retest this. Maybe this thing is going to continue to curl down. You can see the bottom here. If I get the magnifying glass out, the bottom of this is still trending down. Okay, so we could do that for a few more months, find a lower floor, and then poke our way through it like we do typically in all other major bottoms, especially if we can get some narratives to show up. I don't know, maybe I am clutching at straws. Again, I'll leave that up to you. But history does often rhyme. Even if it doesn't repeat, okay, it looks a lot to me and to Jesse, like something like this is happening here and there's another leg down. So, if we can get that, then suddenly I will become extremely bullish. And I suspect that most people will become extremely bearish. But again, I suggest to you that to just say that's the bottom and we go up to new highs from here. I don't know. It just seems like those people would often and routinely attack people that say this time is different and now they're suddenly here they're going okay this time is definitely different right it just I don't know it doesn't fit right with me in the world of the stocks I found this and I thought this was fascinating particularly for the camel crew okay because we have of course been talking about the more right translated the 4year cycle in the S&P runs the more likely it is to resolve violently like we did with the C19 plunge and here it is here's the fractal overlay okay this gets us sometime into Juneish and then the bottom of the world falls out. We get some fouryear cycle lows, some sort of black swan. I don't know what it would be and then perhaps from there we can start to slash interest rates and then spoil the printers up and then off we go. But it's pretty interesting to me that this just kind of found its way onto the timeline, especially because we've been talking about this a lot, particularly on the weekend deep dive videos. And it is interesting because the only precedent we've got for the S&P 500 being at record highs with fewer than 60% of stocks above their 50 and 200 day moving averages was during December 98 and March 2000. So it's this.com bubble era is mirroring the type of divergence we have between the leaders okay and then you know 60% of the stocks being above their 50 and 200 day moving averages right most of these stocks are actually topped already okay or trending down and yet this is what the indices look like so heading into the charts you know I think we know my Bitcoin call now it's been unchanged for months and I don't think it's going to change frankly so queuing shorts here we'll see if we can get a breakdown see if we can get some weird narrative to show up and then it' be interesting to watch the market in aggregates reaction to that. Be interested to see if something like this plays out. You know, what they do to justify that move. Are they going to blame a narrative? Are they going to just tell you they were short the whole time? Um, I don't know.

[00:15:05]We're going to find out, but it's going to be interesting to see what they do.

[00:15:07]The stocks are still vertical, still just waiting for a trend line break to happen. And then we can talk about, I think, taking some profit across the board here because, you know, I got to think the pullback's not going to be shallow from these sorts of moves. I think we're going to have probably a steep nasty pullback here. So, probably be looking to take some profit on a trend line break, reallocate at the upcoming cycle low, which by the way is set for the end of this month as well.

[00:15:30]Okay, so if I put this about here, right when Bitcoin cycle lows are due, so are the stock markets. They're in sync with each other, even though one runs a 40-day count and the other a 60-day count. Kind of sets us up for a bit of volatility into late May, I would suggest. The metals still just kind of chopping around, still pushing higher.

[00:15:48]got new higher highs and higher lows for silver. So, that's good. And we'll see what happens with the miners. They were up big yesterday. So, little bit of a pullback and then go. We'll find out.

[00:15:56]And other than that, I kind of expect this week to be boring. As I was saying at the start, you know, I think we got a bit of chop games and volatility out of CPI, but I also think those CPIs are becoming less and less important. I think unless they're extremely hot or extremely cold, the market's not going to care. I think the cycles are still going to do cycle things, and we're kind of right around that halfway point of the month now. Before then, we're due to decline into those cycle lows, as I was saying. So, I think for the most part it's just a case of sitting back and not doing too much and keep pushing the winners and then once we see some trend line breaks, we'll exit and then look to play some swing trades out the cycle lows late May. But in the meantime, it's kind of just a case of sitting back and not doing too much. If you want to get the indicator, if you want to learn how cycle trading actually works, if you have any questions on cycle translation or that kind of thing, the website is the place for you and you can use it for free for two weeks to see if you actually want it and if it's fits your style. It gives you a chance to experiment with the indicator on all assets and time frames. There's an AI chatbot that has been trained on cycle theory. So, you can just ask it questions like, I don't understand this about translation. You know, the the bot will sort that out for you. So, worst case scenario, you try it for 2 weeks and then you just take all the free information off the website, right? And best case scenario, you decide to join the thousands of traders that are using this every day to level up their edge.

[00:17:07]So, click here in 10 seconds if you want to get behind that. Otherwise, I'll see you guys tomorrow. Cheers. Bye.

[00:17:14]the man to see. Rocking the markets with his contrarian scream. Tra like a pro.

[00:17:21]No fear, no shame. Sticking to his guns in his money game. He's a bad ass. Oh yes indeed. Camel finance got the key ride.