Gold Breaks Out as S&P Flashes Downside — Stocks, Oil & VIX

[00:00:00]Hello guys, I'm Mariano and you're watching Crystal Gains. Today we're going to cover a mix of different assets including indices starting with the S&P and the Nasdaq, the dollar, the VIX.

[00:00:12]We'll cover some stocks and I also have a selection in here of big movers with relative volume spiking.

[00:00:21]Definitely worth having a look. Starting with the S&P, we can see in here that there is still no resolution after the diamond pattern. I'm really looking to see if the S&P can enter re-enter this massive ascending wedge in here to confirm that the effect of the diamond pattern is in place is in place in a bearish way.

[00:00:45]Obviously, the bulls are expecting the opposite. Bulls are expecting to take the highs of 7.7 K, but the theory says that after a long uptrend reaching a diamond resolution of diamonds are not what most people expect. People expect that you exit from this end on on the diamond and you go straight down, but literature says that 50% of the cases you can still have a bullish breakout that goes even into pushing into a new higher high, but that tends to be a weak move. And what are we seeing in here? We are seeing that breakout is still hasn't done the higher high. It could still come in, but so far what we are getting is a declining level of volume. So, we rally, we break out, we attempt to take the past month high, but the volume persists on the way down.

[00:01:48]Is that a fake move? That doesn't necessarily guarantee a fake move, but it makes the move less reliable.

[00:01:56]It makes professional traders less confident of the upside of this move.

[00:02:03]What do we see on the Nasdaq? We see on the Nasdaq that it's kind of acting, if you're bearish, >> [laughter] >> in a leading indicator way against the S&P because we also have an ascending wedge.

[00:02:16]We also exit from the top, but this time on the Nasdaq, we are already inside and we have already formed a double top, an M pattern. So, if the S&P was like the Nasdaq at this point in time, the S&P should have already come down to 7.2K and bounce off that support around that level, which is what we are already seeing happening on the Nasdaq. Now, the Nasdaq has some resistance in here to deal with and has some time to res- resolve in the squeeze and decide whether it's going to use this as a bull flag breakout, in which case we need to monitor if it does it with a volume declining, or if it's actually going to take the neckline in here and go for the technical target at 25,900, meeting up with these two tops that we put around January in 2026. On the VIX, after this massive breakout that I was personally expecting to see the VIX by now having already push pretty high beyond the level of resistance of 22, which is the usual yellow warning, or the 30s, which is the red warning.

[00:03:38]But still so far, we are just going sideways and it seems like the revenge rally is what is currently keeping the VIX constrained. Now, let's see what the stimulus for this VIX is looking like.

[00:03:53]Remember that the DXY ended yields tend to have an effect on preceding what the VIX could do with a big spike and obviously with a following effect on the general assets, the S&P and the Nasdaq in correction territory.

[00:04:12]Starting with the dollar, the dollar ended up testing successfully so far that level of 100.5.

[00:04:21]And now it has formed a nice bull flag that has bounced from that level. Let's see if this can follow through after the bullish reclaim, the hidden bullish divergence is now due for a breakout in this manner, right? So, if it breaks that level of resistance in here, we should be expecting some additional RSI upside from there.

[00:04:44]If not, we are right there against the resistance to see if we need another test around those levels.

[00:04:51]The yields, as I was expecting to see additional upside, remember that we never completed the full technical target of 4.7. We kind of paused in here with a percentile bearish signal. We managed to turn 4.5 into support and we are back again at the highs.

[00:05:13]So, together the yields going up with dollar going up with a VIX that is at the lows and is still not reflecting the usual effect that you will expect from dollar and yields pushing higher.

[00:05:30]It's a matter of which one is going to give up.

[00:05:34]The Russell has definitely rolled over together with the Dow. All of them are kind of in bullish consolidation. They really need to do a little bit more before they can confirm additional upside. The Nikkei has had a decent correction. This is as significant as the one that we have in February where we ended up using the previous level of support to bounce back up. So here, that level, the one that plays that role is 63.5, and if that levels holds and it breaks that, we could be seeing another wave up.

[00:06:14]Hong Kong has had a massive bounce from support, and now it has not just bounced from that level, but also reclaimed 24,650 level of support.

[00:06:27]It's extremely exhausted. This is reaching levels where we are due for a retracement.

[00:06:33]And as we confront all these level of order blocks that are pretty or were pretty bearish in the resolution, we'll see if this now needs a little bit of a breather.

[00:06:48]The yen currency continues in this decline, and it's incredible because it has had a breakout in here, but it's putting new lows. That is showing how weak it is. I am definitely thinking that in one of these lows is going to have an incredible reversal.

[00:07:07]The tech sector, surprisingly, has been pretty resilient. In my opinion, tech sector should be doing way worse given the geopolitical tensions and the new developments in that area, but instead it's just hovering and ranging in this area. After the rejection at 107, it's kind of just consolidating in this new range. And fantastic because gold has followed through with the breakout that we flagged early in July. We said that this is an area of support. Obviously, if you lose it, you can go way deeper into 35, but definitely was worth watching the price action in here. We now have completed the double bottom on gold and we have a perfect follow-through on the RSI with higher highs.

[00:08:00]This is not an area ideal for an entry at the highs of the RSI. There could be a pullback.

[00:08:09]And we are facing once again the downwards sloping resistance right here at the 4.1. A breakout from here after so many attempts in this range, all of them failed.

[00:08:22]This is the best trial of the breakout that I'm seeing so far, which doesn't mean that is going to succeed.

[00:08:31]But if you compare it with the previous attempts that failed immediately after like that one there, this one in here that failed pretty immediately got dumped.

[00:08:42]Now, this one broke out, it went to the same lows, and then it put a higher high in the momentum. So, momentum is currently increasing, volatility is in the middle of the range.

[00:08:56]Looking healthy, in my opinion, crossing fingers that this is now going to go into 4.4 where it's going to meet with previous levels of support and levels that already failed. So, hopefully this time we build a larger pattern from 39 into 44. That's a 500 pattern of upside that can get you into 4.8 if it succeeds.

[00:09:20]Silver is following through. We got the same pattern on the RSI, but we still don't complete the double bottom.

[00:09:26]Obviously, it's higher risk than gold, more volatile.

[00:09:30]So, consider that.

[00:09:32]And incredible US oil after the bounce from 67, it has managed to go all the way to the scene of the crime, that is the neckline.

[00:09:42]It has pierced that level attempting to reclaim and of course with all the escalations from geopolitical tensions, that was kind of expected. Surprisingly, Trump has done nothing to rescue this. There might be bigger fish to cook at the moment. And his concerns probably are more away from the economical ones, probably more centered around the geopolitical ones, which are all coupled if you want.

[00:10:13]We can see that gas after the rally into resistance at 3.3 has had a decent retracement into 2.8 in here. Still not coming back for support again at 2.6.

[00:10:26]And personally, I think we are not done with the upside despite the fact that this correction has been pretty significant. Pretty much most of the tech sector is having either a good day or a good week. Let's have a quick look at Google in here.

[00:10:44]Google is still holding the 347 support.

[00:10:47]It has a built a cup and handle inverse.

[00:10:50]Careful with that pattern. The thing that worries me here is that we already did a liquidity hunt below this level of the neckline at 346. So, if you lose 346 again, I will be suspecting that this time price wants to go a little bit deeper. A candle daily close below 346 suggests the idea of going at the very least into 327 to grab deeper liquidity since the shallower one has already been taken.

[00:11:23]Also consider that the technical setup coming from the inverse cup and handle points towards 292.

[00:11:31]Apple on the other hand, is a much better representative of my point that many stocks are doing pretty well.

[00:11:40]Magnificent seven ones. Apple put a new high into 335.

[00:11:45]And now is pre-market 327.

[00:11:48]There is a massive gap between 307 and 296. To be careful with that one. Or at the very least with a retest of 315. AMD continues to show massive resilience in here. It has not formed yet any of the bearish patterns that I I wanted to form.

[00:12:11]The bearish pattern that I'm looking into is if we could do something like this with a bounce like that or without the bounce.

[00:12:19]But any comeback into $400 with losing that level, particularly attracted by this massive gap that was left between 360 and 411. That would be incredible.

[00:12:34]Things to look up for. Well, taking any high in here will be bullish, including the high of 569 or the all-time high of 582. That will show massive strength.

[00:12:46]Any bounce so far that puts a lower high is a sign of weakness, particularly if it's followed by a lower low.

[00:12:55]Notice that this is the massive pattern that I'm looking to, but there is an internal pattern as well with a neckline at 457. That is the first level that should be lost. That is the past week low again.

[00:13:09]Ideally, lose it, retest it, fail for a short-term confirmation of a move much more significant to the downside.

[00:13:19]For continuation, I will definitely watch out on the daily RSI that resistance that comes in at RSI 60, which you can see that we are on the daily on a channel down.

[00:13:32]And that's why I'm telling you, ideally, you want to also continue with the price coming down. Now, watch out for this. If price takes any of these highs, look up for the RSI only hitting resistance because that means that price breaks out, but RSI stays behind, and that shows weakness. That means that the move is not confirmed from the point of view of momentum. You can also do a confirmation against the volume. See if the breakout comes with an actual spike of volume for confirmation.

[00:14:07]I want to look into AT&T, and this is because of the massive amount of volume that has been moved in the past few days. We can see that we have a double top in here and the neckline at $23.

[00:14:20]Price is coming back to the scene of the crime, and definitely you want to pay attention to what happens at 23.

[00:14:28]Remember, every neckline every neckline screams at least two primary setups.

[00:14:35]Setup number one is the technical breakout to the downside, where you take the measurement of the high of the pattern into the neckline. You locate it like this, and you say, "Well, this is pointing to $18." We are bouncing off halfway through or 2/3 of that so far, and we are coming back to the scene of the crime. If you reclaim 23, that potentially unlocks the opposite counterpart scenario. Too deep to play out in my opinion because this has already achieved 2/3, but if this does a V recovery and it reclaims $24, the neckline, that makes it a massive setup for upside. RSI says that he is in favor of that because you can see that there is currently RSI pushing in this direction.

[00:15:25]Obviously, you shouldn't enter with an RSI or personally, I'm not in favor of entries where you see already the breakout coming in. I'm more in favor of accumulation at the lows.

[00:15:38]In which case, I'm also interested to see if this rejects the level right here at the neckline.

[00:15:45]Rather than entering a long at the neckline, which is always a massive risk.

[00:15:52]We can see that Boeing company is also forming some massive bearish patterns.

[00:16:00]And you don't have to be really creative. There might be some other reasons there, but if you have an increment in the oil above $80, above $100, how do you see performing companies that are doing massive use of those? Of course, everybody needs petrol, but you don't have to take a lot of creativity to think that most likely transport gets affected and airlines are no exception. They require massive amounts of oil. And we are seeing in here after this liquidity hunt that was bullish, that put a higher high, the formation of a right shoulder. This pattern currently is pointing technically to the level of 143, which is the low of the range that was visit in 2024.

[00:16:56]Notice that we also put a cup and handle with a neckline at 190 and that play out before.

[00:17:02]That is just past performance, but let's see if that's also going to cause this pattern to complete, number one, and then to play out.

[00:17:11]And that concludes the video of today.

[00:17:13]There is a slight change in the format of the video, where I primarily focus on the educational aspects.

[00:17:21]And those changes are here to stay. I hope you validate and value the new approach.

[00:17:28]I am up for it if you're still up for it. If the views decline massively, we can call it off and no one gets offended. Thanks so much for the like and for writing down a comment down below. That definitely helps to grow the channel.

[00:17:43]I'll see you in the next one. Take care.

[00:17:45]Bye-bye.