Central Bank HOLD on War Economy~ Java -30APR26

追加: 2026-05-07

[00:00:01]Welcome to Chava and thank you very kindly for joining me.

[00:00:04]It's April 30th, 2026. It is also Thursday. If you're new here, I do would consider liking and subscribing this.

[00:00:12]Thank you so much for being here. We appreciate this. I tried to give you a brief in the mornings. So with this today, we've got little bit going on as far as the war in Iran. We'll do a little updates. I'll also talking about some central banks and what is going on with them as far as this morning, what we can look forward to. Kind of positive for the markets at the moment. Now, I may not be able to get a video out tomorrow morning. I will try, uh but it's going to be very difficult timing-wise. So with all of this, if I don't see it before then, I'll see you definitely Monday. So with all of this, let's get started with what's going on in the markets. Now this morning, fear greed meter, watching our sentiment, staying greed territory. It's pulling back a slight bit. There is a little more hesitation coming forward with this, but we're still in the midst of earnings. Largest earnings week here now. So yesterday, we did hear from four of the large ones. It was kind of a split decision. So two of them moving forward, the notable one is Alphabet, parent company of Google.

[00:01:22]Now they cleaned up quite a bit. Meta being the loser yesterday as they are letting more people go in order to cut costs for AI and few other things going on with other corporation. So watching a little bit of a shift here as far as a sentiment with these other called hyperscalers.

[00:01:45]Now they do account for the bulk of this, but we've still got other positive earnings coming through. Uh namely Chipotle was one that was kind of a surprise on showing that there's still strength in retail, particularly restaurants. So looking at this, we've got earnings coming up as far as all these corporations balanced out by jobs numbers. We expect to see those this morning. So Bank of England and the European Central Bank both came out with their decisions this morning. They're also going to hold also along with United States yesterday chose to hold with the federal rate decision. Now they're in periods of stagflation and the ECB is just coming out admitting this. So it's been in place for a while. They're now at the point where they're finally admitting this is the case for their economies.

[00:02:40]And when you are in a stagflationary environment, the best thing they can do at this point in time is hold. Not hike and not ease up, but rather let this kind of time itself out and hopefully production can increase. Either production or trade are the best ones to balance this out to hold this forward.

[00:03:01]Now Bank of Japan is one really in focus here.

[00:03:04]They came out issuing what they're saying is their final warning prior to taking action. Now they've got a bit of direst trades. We're seeing them move uh as outside of the others. So all of the others kind of in tandem.

[00:03:20]But Japan giving another warning. We saw this yen carry trade. Don't know if many others are talking about this because it's still large enough to make a significant hit to the United States market and then kind of funnel out from there. So definitely watching that. So Euro area stagflation, that means inflation is up. Their GDP and production is down and this is going to kind of be the landscape here for the next bit. We are in what I call the wobble section of this market. Headline driven still.

[00:03:59]However it can't it's having a difficult time getting off from here.

[00:04:06]But also not in crash mode quite yet.

[00:04:10]Believe we've still got little bit of time. But one headline could kind of crush all of this. Now Jerome Powell yesterday saying he would not leave the Fed. He's stepping down saying he's going to be a governor kind of in the background. But really he wants to monitor this. Otherwise he would be taking leave of this. He's watching over the laser cook deal.

[00:04:33]Now this headline, forget about buying the dip. Retail investors now trading the mania in chip stocks and it's about to get messy. So this is kind of alluding to this headline is alluding to kind of a lot more not just poly market but that this is all concentrated within these hyperscalers and with the earnings [clears throat] they had forward yesterday. There's a lot less upside than there is downside and that kind of trade set up is not really good for buying the dip. So Meta >> [clears throat] >> reviving stablecoins. They're choosing to pay out their creators uh using USDC.

[00:05:19]So again, I believe this is their part forward in putting in this push towards Again, if you haven't been here stablecoins is just a different format for saying CBDC because these are going to be uh run by central banks. It's just a question of time.

[00:05:39]They've got a little bit of shifting they've got to do with the issuance and they will be they will [clears throat] have a heavy hand in these. Now I believe that's a shift forward also.

[00:05:51]That's setting itself itself up to replace a lot of the currencies that we're seeing currently in failure mode and this is what they are designed to do. They are designed to fail eventually and that is because they have in short succeeded all of their power all of the buying power has been quashed out via the government spending. We are seeing this happen to all of the currencies currently. So uh stock market, looking at this uh it's going to open a little bit weak, but we've got grain in the futures. So flat level to little bit forward at least for today. Money flowing into Bitcoin cryptocurrencies. This is showing the 10-year yield money flow.

[00:06:38]Lot of this on the relative strength of the dollar dropping. So as it drops prices go up. So this is a mechanism of inflation.

[00:06:49]See the relative purchasing power is dropping. Price goes up including stocks.

[00:06:56]Okay? I say that a lot here. This that's more for a new people that don't understand what exactly is going on.

[00:07:03]They just see prices going up and think it's pure greed. Which it is partially, but that's not the whole story. Now we are looking at jobless claims coming out numbers PCE and then tomorrow morning PMI for manufacturing in the United States.

[00:07:18]Now manufacturing has shifted mostly towards war components. Weaponry is a large part now of GDP as government defense budget really is pushing that forward. Now this war they're saying now has cost approximately 25 billion dollars. Now this is not anything beginning to do with uh preparations, reconstruction or rebuilding any of what has been destroyed or going forward with monitoring. So 25 billion dollars added to the United States GDP.

[00:07:58]So it's keeping it forward. This is war economy.

[00:08:02]Ford coming out beating the first quarter estimates, but they're still in a downtrend. So taking a bit of a hit.

[00:08:10]However they have been approached about kind of shifting towards maybe weapon weaponry.

[00:08:17]So again, war economy kind of bolster that sector if they've got a drop. It's all going to be government subsidized.

[00:08:26]So at some point in time there will be a massive amount of control that people will have to make a decision as to how they want to go forward.

[00:08:37]And pretty soon that decision is going to uh not be as pleasant. Now Trump talking about the United States reviewing troop reductions in Germany.

[00:08:48]This is kind of in a spot with Germany's uh Merz.

[00:08:54]So kind of going back and forth militarily dropping part of that uh whole NATO talks. So with that, he's kind of using this power that they've got as far as funneling for funds through the defense projects. Uh reorganization, PayPal is making Venmo a standalone business. So again, the payment centers and the finances are going to be the method of control they have been historically and this is the new setup we're looking out forward just to prepare you for these.

[00:09:29]To go into different assets, don't do not um kind of expect that banking is going to continue in the method that it has. Now Middle East war they're talking about 24% surge in energy costs. This is according to the World Bank.

[00:09:51]If you've got 24% surge in energy, everything has to be delivered, produced.

[00:09:59]How would that possibly translate into 3% or much less, 2% inflation rates going forward? I just want to ask that at the No one asked that at the Fed presser.

[00:10:13]Anyway, uh Trump is saying he's discussing a Ukrainian ceasefire with Vladimir Putin.

[00:10:19]Uh we'll see. That is the next section, but they've got to keep war uh forward in some aspect. It doesn't necessarily have to be hot, but it does have to justify the production, the design, and the building forward of this war economy. I'm telling you, I know I've said this and repeating it because I cannot stress the importance of this enough. Enough. There are two uh drivers of the economy at the moment, artificial intelligence, which is fluctuating with the factors of cost, energy is a large driver behind that, and war and defense. Now, artificial Air Force pardon me, releasing plans to recruit and retain artificial intelligence professionals. So, this is the tying of the two together. We're going to see these going forward, and that will also uh drive reasons, if you will, that cannot don't have to be voted on. Uh they can just take out of taxpayer money if necessary, or drive the spending because they need more debt forward.

[00:11:30]They're beginning to hit wall again to where uh credit, which is also debt, is kind of hitting a stall. So, in the stall momentum, probably about 2 to 3 months is my estimate. Obviously, they need to do much more spending, and at that point in time we will see this inflation forward.

[00:11:51]So, with all of this, I wish you all a wonderful rest of your day, uh weekend if I can't make it out for tomorrow morning. And until I see you again, my friends, stay free.