Elliott Wave theory often serves as a sophisticated framework for rationalizing market noise after the fact rather than reliably predicting it. This analysis provides a veneer of mathematical certainty to what remains a highly subjective interpretation of trader psychology.
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BITCOIN BULLISH WAVE Could be LURKING! - Let's Analyze. Rational TA inside!Added:
[music] [music] >> All right, guys. What's going on?
Welcome to Sunday night charts with Jim of all trades. Good to see you on this Memorial Day weekend. I hope you're well. My name is Jim. I'm a crypto trader and forex trader here to help you understand the market from an Elliot wave perspective.
All right, guys. Doesn't mean doesn't look like we have a ton of people in here live yet. I think it's Don't forget, guys. Nothing I say in this stream will be financial advice.
I'm not a financial advisor. I'm just a guy in the state of misery or Missouri, whichever the way you like to say it.
And [snorts] I'm showing you what I see in the charts, but um hope you guys are doing well. What's up, Joe Coco? What's up, man? And crypto fitter, how are you doing? Welcome to the channel, guys. Welcome to the live stream. You guys are the only two I see so far.
So, uh yeah. Hope you're well. All right, we're going to jump into the analysis. We're going to keep this one short and sweet. Keep it quick. We'll talk about what I'm seeing. All right, guys. So, what I'm looking at here, guys, pretty simple. The chart's pretty easy. Uh high time frame. Let me start with the high time frame just a moment here. What's up, Kemosabe? How you doing, man? Good to see you, buddy.
Uh real [clears throat] quick, um I'm looking at that as five waves, guys.
Five waves.
Okay? That's the high time frame analysis. One.
One, two, three, four, and five. I didn't draw that two very well, did I?
There you go. So, I'm looking at that as an expanding diag, five-wave move. And so, basically, high time frame, I'm looking for three waves to the downside.
So, we're going to play around here for the next four or five years.
Okay, that's what I'm seeing. Okay, price action that's going to play uh in the zone from here to here or up here to the high um over the next I mean cuz over the next five years, four years.
Okay, that's what I'm seeing. So, that's my high time frame analysis in short.
So, what does that mean? What's happening here? Well, basically, my best guess, here's this is the beginning wave of something much more complex.
Okay, to the upside.
A complex wave that's going to play both up and down and then finish with a move down like so. And hopefully hopefully, that's all we get.
Something to there, this range here.
And then and then we have uh 50 years of bull market happening on Bitcoin from that point. That's that's my overall look. So, this is the nastiness we're getting ready to enter into.
And we're already doing it, and it's already nasty. I've warned you guys about the nastiness. I told you it was coming, and and it is nasty. Price action is not happy, it's not easy, and it's going to shake a lot of people out.
It's going to shake a lot of people up.
There going to be narratives that are playing along the way as well as uh just you know, just just narratives that that get everybody scared, okay? And get everybody bullish back and forth uh changing changing sentiment overnight almost in in Bitcoin. So, within that grand scheme of things, within that that you know, higher time frame outlook, let's just begin to kind of take a peek here at what's happening.
Okay?
So, on the daily chart, just taking a taking a look at it, um where is my RSI?
My RSI is missing. Let's see if I can find it. There it is.
Daily RSI has plenty to go on the upside if it wants to. We have hidden bullish divergence on the daily. Uh you'll see you'll see that right there with that. Okay, that's hidden bull.
In an ideal world, we get a uh that hidden bull plays out with a big move to the upside like so, coming back up to this reality, and what this becomes is a um could be a five-wave move or a three-wave move here with an extended fifth in the fifth wave of C, 1 2 3 4 5, ABC, and that would be the first move, okay, of of a larger complex wave that's going to play the range.
Okay, this would take a long time to develop all of this price action right here.
Is that takes us into November, December.
That means we stand a chance, guys, of being bullish here, and then being real bearish and indecisive in here until the end of the year, until next year when we dump, and then rebound, and then pump after elections. I mean, there that's a time frame. That's a wave that we see all the time on all time frames. That's a flat what I've just drawn here. Now, I'm not saying that's definitely going to happen. I'm just saying that's a scenario I can see over the time frame that makes sense to me, okay? So, then all of a sudden, you've got a WXY or an ABC work into the downside where you've got A, this all that becomes B, and then looking for C later on after that plays. And that C wave could take a year or more to develop.
Okay?
On its way down. Okay, it it would be be pretty volatile, but it's slow moving at the beginning, pretty volatile.
Uh and then pause on a fourth wave and then finish. Where is it going to end? I don't know. A couple of target zones if if we get something simple.
Um let's let's look at that right there.
That's a fantastic That's a fantastic zone right there.
Um let's pull the fibs. I've done this many many times. I'll just do it again here quick. Pull the fibs from the bottom to the top.
You'll notice that my line my my timing here um 2029 2030 range.
Okay, trend line timing puts us at the 618.
44th 44k confluent with a trend line.
Uh it can break that trend line. It doesn't have to respect it. The 27 27k is at the 786 retrace.
So, uh yeah, there you go. Something like that.
And then 100 years of bull market.
Just like the S&P. Just up up up up up.
So, we'll see if something like that plays, guys.
But this allows time for transition into the digital age where fiat is dying.
Bitcoin could be accumulated, transitioned to final final accumulation phase happens, and then and then we just go into the markup phase forever. For a very very long time.
Okay? There it is. That's my overall arching idea. So, in that in that you can kind of see where we are. I I kind of think uh you have price action that's going to play from this point to this point.
More than likely over the next 6 months.
All right?
Now, could be big swings, little swings, choppiness, all kinds of stuff. Some wave structure I've been calling for and paying attention to is this basic wave structure right here.
Where I'm going to call this the A wave, all of this the B wave, right there. And then I make C.
Now, technically, we could have C finished. But, it's been in my um perview here that this is actually a wave four, and we need a wave five, and that C isn't finished. It's going to be bigger. It's coming up here. It's coming up coming up higher to higher zones. Okay?
Uh pulling the fibs on this guy, you'll notice that we came just shy the 618. Okay?
That's That's rare. So, usually when we do that, come shy the 618, we're going to we're going to come up here and hit the 618. It's going to play, probably play, and then hit it again, and probably come up here to 90k at least at the 786.
And it's going to have This wave has a chance to be fast and furious, and that's the bullish wave I'm alluding to in the title of tonight's live stream.
So, I'm still looking at that. I think that that could be lurking and uh those are targets in wave structure that I would say, "Hey, that's a possibility." Now, that's not the only wave structure that can happen here, but that's my first idea.
All right? Let's look at another idea.
Second idea says, "Hey, we we really did finish this ABC."
And this was the This right here, that ABC right there, is your A wave or a W wave of a larger three-wave move, where you're going to have WXY or eight or ABC. See, a WXY, what's the difference between ABC and a WXY? Well, WXY's are all threes. ABC's can be 5-3-5. But since this started with a three we could see something like that, okay? Followed by something like this.
All right. And that would be a double correction.
WXY. And and in the grand scheme of things, what would that be? That would be your W wave or A wave of a larger three-wave move.
That brings us back up to here. In that range. That takes a very long time.
All right. Again, that range I'm telling you about. So, there's a million shapes that can play. I don't know what's going to happen. I can't tell you that. I can just know what generally happens, okay?
Followed by something impulsive to the downside. All right?
So, this is where we are. And so, I don't want to go back into the high time frame much except to say you always keep that in mind understanding that this first A wave could be very rapid and quick. And and my first idea says it needs to be rapid and quick to get everybody bullish again so they can pull the rug.
Okay?
Something like that, right?
So, A B it needs to be rapid and quick like that.
Get everybody real excited, real bullish. Everybody's thinking, "Oh, yeah, we're we're coming we're coming up here and we're going forever, going to the moon."
Right? And then then they pull back and and then all it's three-waveish. It shows the three-waveishness. It starts to go and then they do it again, okay?
And then all of a sudden, before you know it, you're revisiting these prices again.
And then all of a sudden, you got three and then everybody gets real bearish again thinking oh this was just a correction we're going down we're going down to 50k and then boom they go up to where you thought they were going prior back up to these ranges here.
That's the way markets move. That's Elliot for you that mean that's the way Elliot Elliot wave theory potential particularly flats and WXYs play out.
So I kind of feel like this first wave needs to be fast and furious to sell to sell the bullish narrative. Why? Because they want to get everybody bearish again by selling into those buys.
They want to sell into those buys with a wave like this and then buy into those sells once everybody starts selling and gets scared again they buy into the sells.
Remember if they want if they the they mean the people with money the people that run these markets if they want to buy they need you selling.
If they want to sell they need you buying.
So the chart has to look like one particular direction is to get you thinking that direction.
All right? So that's the way market making works.
For me I think this just bottomed here we've come to a nice target here on Bitcoin we've we took out this little level. This is a nice rebound. I like it. Let's get a three wave pullback and continue and gets kind of some fast and furious business to this wave.
Uh that's going to take us back to the upside.
All right, how we doing? How we doing on the chart? How we doing on the chat? You do you guys doing okay? You making making sense to you?
This is kind of where we are it's pretty simple territory now because either way I think a bullish wave is coming okay?
Uh either so if we get something that's kind of fast and furious, fine.
What I just drew for you right there, though, could take it. When I say fast and furious, I don't mean overnight.
Though, it could go quickly and overnight, but what I just drew for you right there, that takes us into the middle of June.
So, what I just drew takes us to the middle of June.
So, it's going to take a bit. It's going to be 3 weeks out just to get developed.
So, we got time, guys. We got time. But, this is this is an area for me where also bouncing on this 200 moving average on the 8-hour. See what the 4-hour looks like. We fell below the the 4-hour, okay? Kind of giving on the 4-hour, we kind of have the the the look of a flat working.
Which could roll over and come down.
And Kimbo, in that in that scenario, >> [snorts] >> uh excuse me, in that scenario, your 71k could could play.
And and that may work with your June uh your June 6th idea as well.
50 days sounds about right.
We are coming into the end of the month.
So, I still see this uh probably Let's look at the monthly. See what the monthly is looking like.
Monthly is an indecision candle, but still bullish for now.
But it's indecision.
And they're probably going to keep it in this range till the end of the month.
I would imagine.
Yeah.
So, those are my ideas, guys. That's what I'm thinking. It's real simple um dichotomy here.
Uh what's wave structure? I mean, if this is a flat, doesn't have to be, but if it is, 1618 sits at 77k. You got uh 80,000 uh is the 2618. So, if they want to get up there, they can. Let's pull the fibs on that guy.
80,400 range is the the golden zone.
Not a ton of confluence.
Let's pull it. Yeah, okay. Yeah, I pulled that right.
And that would be an expanded flat right there, guys.
Setting up for a sell.
That'll be chemo That's chemo's idea.
That's possible. Oh, sorry.
That's I mean, that's a play. That could that could play, for sure.
It's an idea.
Me, I just like this idea being a fourth wave.
Came down to the fourth of previous degree.
Took out the stops, rebounded.
Let's play here and go.
Let's get real bullish.
Play around up here for a bit.
And down we go.
So, those are my thoughts. That's That's my wave structure idea. That's my That's my main wave idea, but that's not Yeah, that's not all there is.
Let's take a peek at XRP and Ethereum and see what those charts are saying. Uh Ethereum's pointing bullish to me as well. Uh it's got You You You can see on this 8-hour um the hidden bull here.
So, at least a flat here.
Retesting this zone before down, or we go up.
And then this finishes.
>> two, three, A B C Or this could turn into an A B C We get fast and furious in five.
Leading diag 1 2 3 4 5 three-wave pullback.
We start going.
That becomes wave four followed by wave five.
Three, four, five.
So that that correlates that chart right there correlates with my concept for Bitcoin of pushing up.
Whether it plays or not is another story, but I I think it's a good chance of it.
We got hidden bullish divergence on the daily.
They could take that divergence out.
There's no doubt about that, but still it's there.
So guys, I'm still bullish here. I really am. I like Ethereum coming up to here.
Boom, boom, boom.
Just be patient for it and let it let it do its thing.
Let's look at XRP quick.
XRP still bullish on that as well.
Let me show you what I'm seeing there.
You can kind of see this original three-wave thing.
And you get this bullish wave to the upside. Boom.
Boom.
Boom.
And then we come crashing down.
Coming down to 0 50 or 60 cents and then and then we bull get bull from there.
Hey Keith, what's up, buddy?
So I am bullish, guys. I am. I've been bullish for a while. Still bullish. This wave structure is still still Those are my primary ideas. I'm It doesn't mean we won't have bearish waves in the process, but I'm still bullish. Looking for this thing to start chugging to the upside.
All right.
So there it is, guys.
Um that's what I'm thinking.
So I check in here on the Zcash is interesting.
What do you guys think about Zcash?
It really looks like it needs to come down, doesn't it? Boom. Boom.
Yeah, it looks like it's about ready for a third wave to the downside. Set Set up for that, and then And then And then we go. Then we get bullish, but but we need this bearish wave.
That's the way I'm thinking about it.
It looks about finished.
Let's take a peek at Hype for a minute, cuz I know uh Johnny Utah in our group likes Hype.
See, Hype looks like it has more more in the tank to me.
I need a pullback.
Top a three-wave and then more.
>> Yeah, I don't know about that.
It's just it doesn't look finished.
I need I need more structure.
What else? Near?
I haven't heard of Near.
Yeah, I mean, see that looks like it has more in the tank. It's due for a pullback for sure.
But it looks like it's got more in the tank to the upside.
I just need some structure here. I need some wave structure to develop.
But Near looks like it's got more wave structure to to develop in my opinion.
That may be you know, pointing to more in the tank for Zcash and hype as well.
I have to wait and see.
All right guys, how we doing? Are we doing all right? Everything good? That's Those are my thoughts. I wanted to keep them short and sweet. That's what I'm thinking.
Uh can I look at anything for you guys quickly? Very quickly.
Um My son and I are going to watch a movie tonight and uh enjoy this Memorial Day weekend together. So, let me know if there's anything I can look at quick for you.
Otherwise, we're going to call it a night.
And give you guys a chance to catch up in the in the in the live.
Nvidia and Meta. Sure, yeah, those are good ones. Let's Let's do some stocks.
Nvidia.
Lovely.
Well, to me that's very choppy.
We got we got double divergence.
It's It's looking rather choppy.
Now, this could be a wave three. In other words, you could have a one, two, and all of this is wave three. Could be in in for a wave four, and then a five. But, either way, whether this would this was three here, and that was four, and that's five.
So, if that's five waves, then we're due for a big a big three-wave move back down.
50% retrace, at least. But, if that's a wave four on Nvidia, so you got one, two, this is three. Now, we're in a wave four, five, then you may only you may only get a shallow retrace.
Either way, for me, this looks very much like take profit zone.
If you're in Nvidia, you it's take profit zone to me.
So, that's bearish to me.
Whether it's a wave four and then a five or it's a part of a big three wave move, you got a couple of years of bearishness here.
At least to uh at least Yeah, it's a couple of years.
Next election cycle, you'll buy it again.
Yeah, let's look at Meta quick and then we'll look at silver.
SPX and gold, yeah, let's do it.
Meta, see okay, so Meta doesn't have a completed five wave structure.
So, Meta looks like it has more in the tank.
If I had to guess, Meta has hidden bullish divergence on it.
That doesn't mean it can't come back down, but this is buy zone.
So, meta looks like a buy to me.
Not immediately, not now necessarily.
No, it's not.
So, that's what meta looks like. Now, whether the fundamentals support that or not is another story.
But, this just doesn't look like finished wave structure.
I might be wrong on that, but I could see this followed by that.
What's up, Sora, bro?
>> [laughter] >> I like to butcher your I butcher your name cuz I never know how to pronounce it cuz I I can't see any words in it.
All right, let's look at gold and the S SPX.
As far as SPX is concerned, um yeah, this is this is looking like 1 2 3 4 5 and we just got an extended fifth.
I I like that. That's That looks like five. It looks like it's due for a retrace back down.
Down to that level or even this level.
That's a really nice level there.
This could be a four followed by a five.
The reason I say that is this when you look down here you got a clear one, two but then you got maybe the end of three four and then five.
If they want to impulse it like that.
So, we might be due for a bit of a three-wave pullback back down to these levels.
So, this could play something like this.
You get a bounce and it could roll over.
I just I don't know. I I I kind of think it's more like a wave four that we're But, this is looking about cooked.
The fact that this divergence though in the weekly is kind of going out of it. That that's a bit of a bullish signal, but I think we're still due for a pullback.
Okay, let's look at silver and gold.
Silver and gold. Silver first cuz that's my lovely.
Okay, so what's going on? What's going on here? Well, it went straight up, obviously.
So, it's needing a correction, right? It got a three-wave correction.
It got one.
It's a little out of proportional proportion, but you got one.
So, here's the bearish idea. That this is A, and this is a flat. That's a B.
And then you're going to get a C. It's going to scare everybody.
It's going to get all the way down here.
Okay, and then and then pick up and go after that.
So, there's your bearish idea.
That's a possibility.
It should find some support around 40 bucks.
If that if it comes down.
I kind of feel like, no, this is getting ready to hyperwave or do something as do something big.
That this is all you get. That's it.
The pullback's been front-run, and this is just getting ready to go.
That 200 or I in 200 pretty quick.
Then a big deep pullback back to 150 50 bucks. And that becomes the new normal for silver.
So, which is it, guys? Are we going to get that full correction, or is this wave Why don't I think we're going to get that full correction? I mean, we could. We could.
But, if this is a one, two, that's a one, two.
I don't think three is finished. I think three's coming way up here.
250 200 250 You get four, five, four, five. Okay.
That's going to take a long lot of years, but I am just I'm bullish on silver, guys.
For the next decade.
The reason I'm bullish for the next decade is because we are in the trend we're in a transition period of monetary. We're also in a transition period in technology where AI and robots and drones and all the stuff is just you know, so silver is a precious commodity.
It is right now um the demand for it is increasing uh while um the ability for COMEX to deliver on uh contracts is is is not very good. So, there's going to be there's going to be a push here and silver's going to break out and and mess a bunch of people up.
Uh that's my thinking on it. I might be wrong.
Let's look at gold.
So, this is really uh an important area here.
Why? Because you got a three-wave shape here.
And we want this to be So, if that's the case, then you got a nice potential one, two working.
Potentially. Which could be followed by three, four, and five, you know, and and then continuation basically.
So, they could get bullish or they could double this up.
Prior to selling.
Prior to buying. Again.
330 silver by 2028, that's totally doable my brother. In my mind, that's totally fair and valid.
Well, that means we have currencies failing, so.
All right guys, there it is. I think I hit all your requests.
I'm bullish.
Even now on most markets, I'm I'm I'm bullish in these zones, so.
Uh it doesn't mean we we don't we couldn't come down some, but I I see upper targets that we can probably come hit. I'm just generally generally bullish. I don't think as far as BTC's concerned, I don't think this wave is finished.
I think it's designed to look done up here, but I think this is rolled over, get everybody scared a little bit, and then they're going to pump it up.
They're going to pump up the jams a little bit.
All right guys, enjoyable to be with you, but what let's call it a night. And go enjoy your family. It's Memorial Day weekend. Say thank you to a veteran.
And uh remember those that gave their lives for our freedoms guys. And let's keep fighting the freedom fight guys.
Let's keep doing it. All right, love y'all. Y'all take it easy. Bye-bye.
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